Canada, debt, mortgage

Another Canadian lender concerned about confidence

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Home Capital isn’t the only lender that’s worried about liquidity,  southseacompany points out that EQ Bank has secured a 2 billion line of credit from the big banks “just in case”.

“The crisis at mortgage lender Home Capital is putting pressure on other Canadian lenders, who have seen their share prices drop, and — in some cases — depositors withdrawing their money.”

“That’s been the case with Equitable Bank, known online as EQ Bank, which on Wednesday announced it had secured a $2-billion line of credit, just in case, from Canada’s “big six” banks.”

Read the full article here. 

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[…] –This is an ugly market –Home Capitol contagion? –high density housing just like slave ships? –highest price houses are for lowest incomes –Toronto owners scramble to cash out –Does standby financing give you confidence in lenders? – […]

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southseacompany

“‘This is an ugly market’: A look at Langley, Abbotsford and Chilliwack real estate”, CBC

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/real-estate-langley-to-chilliwack-still-unaffordable-1.4098428

‘Even if you have 500K, you still might not be able to afford your dream home an hour out of Vancouver”

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southseacompany

“Steve Saretsky Interview with BNN on Vancouver Condo Market”, BNN

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KEg3hmRyDa8

“Steve Saretsky sits down with Greg Bonnell of BNN to discuss the latest in the Vancouver condo market. “

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southseacompany

“Home Capital Contagion Risk Is Indirect But Real, Edward Jones Says”, Bloomberg

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-05-04/home-capital-contagion-risk-indirect-but-real-edward-jones-says

“The downward spiral of Home Capital Group Inc. could start to deflate Canada’s housing market, pushing down bank shares and the broader index, according to Edward Jones & Co.”

“The mortgage lender’s woes will insert caution into property funding, Craig Fehr, Canadian investment strategist at Edward Jones, said in an interview in Toronto on Wednesday. This would slow the economy because of its outsized reliance on real estate and damp prospects for the bank-heavy S&P/TSX Composite Index, he said.”

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southseacompany

“Bank of Canada says rising housing prices in Toronto unsustainable”, Nasdaq

http://www.nasdaq.com/article/bank-of-canada-says-rising-housing-prices-in-toronto-unsustainable-20170504-02193#ixzz4gBXCCCDg

“Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz said Thursday that rising housing prices in Toronto are driven in part by speculation and are not sustainable.”

“In a speech to business leaders in Mexico, Poloz added that he hopes that macro-prudential rules that the government has put in place will help to calm the housing market.”

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Abdul Lahazi

Good thing because his lowering interest rates to .50 percent had nothing to do with blowing up the bubble, right Steve?

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DaMann

If anyone had any doubts about how little the Feds care about what happens in Vancouver then this should change your mind. Never did anyone say anything like that about Vancouver’s loony house market. But now that Toronto is experiencing what we have for the last few years it’s getting endless press and strong words from the higher ups.

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Combat roach

Why would Feds care about what’s going on in the Little China?

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southseacompany

“Canada’s Mortgage Rates Forecast To Hit Bubble-Bursting Territory”, Huffington Post

http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2017/05/04/mortgage-rates-canada-desjardins_n_16409864.html

“Mark the start of 2019 on your calendar. That could be when the housing juggernauts in Ontario and British Columbia finally come to a halt.”

“A new report predicts mortgage rates will rise as much as two percentage points by early 2019 — an increase that could put serious pressure on home affordability, and bring an end to soaring house prices in the Toronto and Vancouver areas.”

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bullwhip29

Shaughnessy property owners compare high-density housing to slave ships
http://www.metronews.ca/news/vancouver/2017/05/04/shaughnessy-compares-high-density-housing-to-slave-ships.html

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Abdul Lahazi

Please keep out the riff-raff.

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bullwhip29

Christy Clark Isn’t Being Honest about the Housing Crisis
https://thetyee.ca/Opinion/2017/05/05/Clark-Not-Honest-About-Housing-Crisis/

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bullwhip29

Victoria rental complex being barged to Port Townsend
http://vancouverisland.ctvnews.ca/victoria-rental-complex-being-barged-to-port-townsend-1.3399239

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Spec

Wozny believes that if governments were truly honest about the reasons for unaffordability in Vancouver, they would be forced to do something about them. “Higher taxes and fees on residential real estate being used for speculation and investment” would be a good place to start, he says.

https://thetyee.ca/Opinion/2017/05/05/Clark-Not-Honest-About-Housing-Crisis/

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Best place on meth

The Toronto Housing Market Is About To Collapse By This Measure

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-05-04/toronto-housing-market-about-collapse-measure

I love ZH, don’t y’all love ZH?

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Best place on meth

Richmond looks like a great place to go hunting.

http://images.glaciermedia.ca/polopoly_fs/1.18136240.1493833093!/fileImage/httpImage/image.jpg_gen/derivatives/landscape_804/corruption.jpg

Such a target rich environment.

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Best place on meth

As of today, the NDP have a 72% chance of winning the election and a 62% chance of winning a majority.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/bc-2017-poll-tracker-1.4054593

In other news, polls suck.

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Just me

Many people are too embarassed to admit they will vite for Kruelty Clark. But vote they will.
Unless honest people get off their butts and cast their vote for the NDP, we might end up with another BC Libs majority.

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Hyper-mega-Bull

this month bears belive that home capital is going to cause the housing “bubble” to burst.

last month it was the foreign buyers tax.

i can’t remember what it was before the foreign buyers tax.

there’s always a new final straw for the bears. they’ve been coming up with them for more than a decade! these poor saps just don’t learn.

sad.

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Confucius

Naw, it will end becuase of people like you who don’t realize it’s not a permanently high plateau, but just another long asset price cycle.

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Hyper-mega-Bull

Markets crash because people think they’ve plateaued?

That doesn’t make any sense.

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Confucius

Unsurprisingly, it doesn’t make sense to you. Here’s a history lesson.

https://www.theburningplatform.com/2014/10/16/permanently-high-plateau/

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Hyper-mega-Bull

“We couldn’t possibly be entering phase two of our Greater Depression after a temporary lull provided by the $8 trillion pumped into the veins of Wall Street by the Fed and Obama. Could we?”

October 16, 2014

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kim

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/china-detains-second-canadian-despite-plans-for-extradition-pact/article34892935/

“Chinese-Canadian billionaire Xiao Jianhua mysteriously disappeared Jan. 27 from Hong Kong’s Four Seasons Hotel, reportedly spirited away to the Chinese mainland by a phalanx of plainclothes policemen. Chinese political analysts think Mr. Xiao was wanted by President Xi Jinping and supporters because they believe he possesses incriminating evidence against political enemies of Mr. Xi.”

China does not care about the Canadian passport. Trudeau is weak.

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Best place on meth

“The Chinese embassy, however, urged Canadian media to distrust any information provided by practitioners of Falun Gong, including its information websites. “Falun Gong is an evil cult that is anti-humanity and anti-science in nature, having caused enormous harm to Chinese society. It was banned by Chinese government in 1999, according to law,” embassy spokesman Yang Yundong said.”

Yes. an evil cult, unlike communism which is a happy, lucky, harmonious, moral, peaceful, gentle. organ-harvesting, nurturing, compassionate way of life for all people to enjoy and prosper.

Also, the Dalai Lama is the devil.

And a pedophile.

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Onta

Doubt that about Dalai Lama. Mohammad on the other hand ..

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paulb

New
191
Price Change
40
Sold
163

TI:8460

https://www.instagram.com/clivestevepaul/

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Kim

Was at the bank yesterday morning. Overheard a proud young Asian couple (mid 20s) asking for a bank draft, telling the teller that they had just bought their first condo.

While I get the appeal of trying to get into the market, I do worry about some of these young folks spending (or borrowing) to buy a 500k+ box.

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Shut It Down Already

According to Zolo the average one bed condo just hit $600K, that’s up $70K in 3 months.

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Burnaby

Less $37,500 of free govt money.

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Best place on meth

How do you know they were Asian?

Did they have accents?

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bullwhip29

Ontario Securities Commission staff push to ‘expedite’ hearings against Home Capital
http://business.financialpost.com/news/fp-street/ontario-securities-commission-staff-push-to-expedite-hearings-against-home-capital

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bullwhip29

Highest priced houses in Metro Vancouver belong to the lowest income earners, study finds
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/highest-priced-houses-in-metro-vancouver-belong-to-the-lowest-income-earners-study-finds-1.4097036

“…the highest priced houses in municipalities Metro Vancouver are owned by those with the lowest median household incomes.”

“…Richmond has the lowest median taxable income, yet some of the highest house prices.”

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Just me

Nothing to see here, they are all locals who bought 50 years ago and are now retired.
Or so SIDA seems to think.
Saying otherwise would be racist. Just accept it, and keep bowing your head, vote for the BC Libs.

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Shut It Down Already

Do you always misrepresent others opinions?

I’d say you’d find the same pattern all over the world. The truly wealthy tend not to need to hold down a 9-5 to make ends meet. It’s no surprise you’d find the very wealthy in the priciest homes, either. By all means conjure up imagery of those nasty foreigners evading taxes, though – it’s about all you’re good at.

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Just me

You claim that in other localities the truly wealthy have the lowest (lowest!) taxable incomes?
I would take you seriously if you had told me that the rich have low labor earnings and higher capital income. But the lowest? You are the master of misrepresentation: in Richmond and Van West there are income levels that would all but guarantee food stamps in the US. You think that is the norm everywhere?
Go on, and vote for the BC Libs. They tend to agree with your misrepresentation.

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Shut It Down Already

They’re taking median incomes and comparing them to median house prices. That means 50% of the population are richer than the median (tens of thousands of people), but we don’t know how much richer. Median house prices could also be skewed downward by geography, density, and so on. They’ve introduced bias by selecting only houses rather than all dwelling types. They’re not looking at individual addresses and tax returns.

I’ll let you work the rest out on your own, but it’s basically a garbage methodology with innuendo instead of concrete conclusions.

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Just me

Right.
Please stop making a full of yourself. This public display is embarassing.
Accept, for once, that you were wrong.

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Best place on meth

And yet you keep debating a fucking traitor who sides with the communist chinese criminals that infest and destroy our nation.

Shame on you for giving that piece of shit a voice.

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Shut It Down Already

Only reason you have a voice is because admin graciously provides you a platform for your vile hatred. You’d never dare voice your opinions in public, coward.

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Shut It Down Already

Um, even the article says to take it with a pinch of salt. But I can understand why a “full” like you is in love with the idea.

There are just so many alternate explanations. But for the most part it’s simply locals gorging on credit because “real estate is a good investment that always goes up”! Occam’s razor.

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DaMann

HaHa. What a crock of shit. As has already been pointed out they would have less labor income but the rich have income, lot’s of it, that’s how they live in 10 million dollar homes. Dividends, interest earnings, capital gains, you name it . Those earnings are all part of your earnings according to the tax man. You can deny and bullshit all you want, but the highest priced homes belonging to the lowest wages? That’s pretty much tax evasion and a big big problem that needs to be addressed. Sure a small portion will be retirees who bought 40 years ago but they wouldn’t be the majority.

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Shut It Down Already

So what happens if I sell $10m in shares in year 1 and then use that cash for expenses and new investments over the next 4 years? How much income did I declare in year 3?

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Bear Vancouverite

I know people whose sole source of income is from selling shares they own, and they sell enough to support their lifestyle year to year.
Their taxable income is much higher than poverty levels and as far as I understand from talking to them they would not sell 3 years worth of living expenses in one go to finance the next 3+ years.

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YVR

So what happens if I sell $10m in shares in year 1 and then use that cash for expenses and new investments over the next 4 years? How much income did I declare in year 3?

Not realistic. Why would someone sell taxable investments all at once unless they had to? Selling over several years lowers taxes. If they did have to sell all at once for some reason then they would obviously invest the $10M and get income in the following years. Nobody goes from $10M to nothing.

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Shut It Down Already

It’s just a thinking exercise by means of contrived example. In my my opinion you’d not expect the wealthiest to have as smooth an income as a salaried worker. I don’t have any evidence to support that, hence me saying it’s merely an opinion.

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Combat roach

Right, a typical scenario with your Chinese locals, all savvy shareholders.

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Shut It Down Already

What on earth is that meant to mean?

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Best place on meth

We don’t have any mainland cockroaches who bought mansions 40 years ago.

It’s tax evasion, plain and simple – and that’s not the only crime they’ve committed.

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Combat roach

Those are all local earners who are incredible savers due to the cultural background and saving habits spanning over multiple generations. They can, for example, be a student, a homemaker or a housewife, who can live on fresh air (very important, that’s why they live in Vancouver), a bowl of rice and a glass of water per day for decades and only spend their hard saved money on exotic cars and even more exotic homes.

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Just me

From the article: ‘Homes not taxed fully’ Professor J. Rhys Kesselman at Simon Fraser University’s School of Public Policy says while there are methodological aspects of the study that are a “little weak,” he agreed with the idea we do not tax the wealth in homes fully. “If you had the same million or $2 million in the stock market and in bonds, you’d be paying on the interest, the dividends and the capital gains,” he said. “Put it in your home, and you don’t pay it either as current income, and you don’t pay it when you sell, if its been your principal residence.” His solution is a progressive property tax — one that applies depending on the value of your home and regardless of whether or not you’re a Canadian resident. In his proposal, anyone would be able… Read more »

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Hyper-mega-Bull

Canadians are the biggest chumps in the world.

Globalization won’t be kind to you fools.

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Combat roach

Who is going to keep pumping housing prices if locals are gone? Or they will be just substituted with more capable “locals” to continue the RE shitshow?

http://www.metronews.ca/news/vancouver/2017/05/03/vancouver-continues-to-lose-children-census-shows.html

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bullwhip29

Illegal flyers attacking Chak Au resurface at footstep of polls
http://www.richmond-news.com/election-2017/illegal-flyers-attacking-chak-au-resurface-at-footstep-of-polls-1.18022027

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bullwhip29

American clothing retailer Express to close its 17 Canadian stores
http://www.ctvnews.ca/business/american-clothing-retailer-express-to-close-its-17-canadian-stores-1.3398106

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KickThemOut

This has to do with RE how??? Not even a famous brand / chain either.

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bullwhip29

indirectly related. just a reflection on the overall health of the cdn economy and yet another retailer gone belly up to add the pile of what now seems like a list of many dozens of names (and counting). dont worry thought, the vancouver locations of holts, louis vuitton and prada arent going anywhere anytime soon…

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Shut It Down Already

You mean people are spending so much on housing that they’re cutting back on discretionary spending? Shocking.

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bullwhip29

Metro Vancouver water restrictions to kick in May 15 despite 4th wettest April on record
http://globalnews.ca/news/3423542/metro-vancouver-water-restrictions-to-kick-in-may-15-despite-4th-wettest-april-on-record/

>>> maybe that 2 million litre/day leak in kerrisdale has something to do with it?

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KickThemOut

Right, because our water supply comes from residential underground aquifer. Damn bears are so f*ing stupid….no wonder they are wrong 10 years and counting, and even an epic 50% crash isn’t going to bail them out.

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Bear Vancouverite

Hey space, I’m not an authority on the subject, but this link from 2015 is interesting:

http://www.vancouversun.com/Massive+underground+aquifer+helping+keep+Vancouver+green/11244495/story.html

“As Vancouver increasingly relies on an underground aquifer to water its street trees and the Langara golf course in the midst of this summer’s punishing drought, one hydrology expert is cautioning that we don’t know enough about how readily it can be replenished.

For more than 25 years, Vancouver’s parks department has used the city’s largest aquifer to irrigate its Langara golf course, taking pressure off the region’s treated drinking water supplies.”

So while drinking water might not come from aquifers, the city might use aquifer water in various ways. One must assume if the aquifers are depleted they’d have to use water that we normally would reserve for residential usage.

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Screwed

http://m.huffpost.com/ca/entry/16409864?ir=Canada
Mortgages rates are changing in …2019

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KickThemOut

Tangerine 5yr fixed mortgage rate is 2.69%

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Shut It Down Already

Who here remembers the poster called “2.79% 5yr never again”?

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Bear Vancouverite

All I remember is being skeptical that everyone claims interest rates will rise quickly. The Fed projects very slow interest rates increases until 2020. It could be years before interest rates pop this bubble, if that’s what it takes.

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