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Friday Free-for-all! May 12th 2017

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It’s the end of another week in luxury land and that means it’s time for another Friday Free-for-all! This is our regularly scheduled end of the week news round up and open topic discussion thread for the weekend, here are a few recent links to kick off the chat:

–Six Canadian banks cut by Moodys on debt
–Strata must pay 554k to replace tree
–Always a good time to buy
–Home Capitol to sell $1.5b mortgages
–Best option to move across the water?
–We need this graph
–

So what are you seeing out there? Post your news links, thoughts and anecdotes here and have an excellent weekend!

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bullwhip29
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Election result provides no easy answers to housing issues
http://vancouversun.com/business/real-estate/election-result-provides-no-easy-answers-to-housing-issues

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3 months 6 days ago
MarKoz
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Prepared by Post Media Works for MacDonald Realty.

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3 months 5 days ago
bullwhip29
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B.C. is likely to end up with a minority government: economist
http://globalnews.ca/news/3446041/bc-election-results-absentee-ballots/

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3 months 6 days ago
southseacompany
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southseacompany
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“Toronto Real Estate Agents Are Losing Their S**T Over These Charts”, Better Dwelling

https://betterdwelling.com/city/toronto/toronto-real-estate-agents-losing-st-charts/

“Toronto is seeing detached listings rise at a massive rate, while sales drop. The general public might not understand how important of an issue this is, but smart money has been taking note.”

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3 months 6 days ago
Dave
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That’s some pretty bearish looking data. We’ll see if the trend continues and if it leaks into pricing.

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3 months 6 days ago
Doomcouver
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This data is alarming. If there was a rush to the exits, it would definitely look like what we’re seeing in the inventory numbers here. I will be very interested to see the May numbers. Do we have any daily listing/sales numbers for Toronto? If it keeps going up it will almost inevitably cause panic selling to occur, with good reason.

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3 months 6 days ago
Brian Ripley
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On my listings chart (total listings, not new listings added)
http://www.chpc.biz/sales-listings.html
(2nd chart on the page)

…it looks like the bottom is in after 4 years of lower highs and lows.

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3 months 6 days ago
BubbleTea
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Can you say “POP” in Toronto! HCG adds fuel to the fire. Will be very interesting to see how bad it gets in the coming weeks.

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3 months 6 days ago
Hyper-mega-Bull
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Hyper-mega-Bull
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I’d like to see a chart of all the times Ben Rabidoux was wrong.

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3 months 6 days ago
ostritch
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Me too. And I’d like the press to mention his track record and that he taught high school before becoming an analyst.

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3 months 4 days ago
Combat roach
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Fortunately, it can never happen in Vancouver due to a lack of supply, mountains, always eager students, housewives, homemakers and his Majesty Locust.

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ostritch
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The should put a statue of Gregor up on top of that condo building instead of a 25-yr old oak tree.

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3 months 4 days ago
southseacompany
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“After Home Capital, Canada’s Whole Economy Suddenly Looks Frail”, Bloomberg

https://www.bloombergquint.com/business/2017/05/12/home-capital-a-minor-meltdown-that-s-left-canada-looking-frail

“Boom-times in Vancouver and Toronto look increasingly like the spillovers from debt-fueled housing bubbles, the kind that wrought havoc in so many Western countries last decade. A banking system long considered among the world’s soundest got hit by a Moody’s downgrade this week. The government has touted a transition away from commodity-dependence and toward hi-tech smarts; Canadians are waking up to the possibility that their economy got hooked on real-estate instead.”

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southseacompany
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“Home Capital Warns of ‘Knock-On Effects’ If It Fails to Recover”, Bloomberg

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-05-12/home-capital-says-uncertain-of-future-as-it-reports-earnings

“Home Capital Group Inc. said it’s seeking new sources of funding to counter a run on deposits and warned that the failure of the Canadian lender would have significant “knock-on effects” in the broader mortgage market.”

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southseacompany
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“Home Capital investors are victims of Canadian real estate uncertainty: Don Pittis”, CBC

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/home-capital-regulation-real-estate-1.4108122

“But if the company continues to weaken and fail, leaving its borrowers without an alternative source of money when their mortgages come due, Home Capital could itself become the trigger of larger real estate decline.”

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3 months 6 days ago
Dave
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It’s not just Home Capital because other lenders don’t act in isolation. If there is a concern around debt quality, all the banks will reign in money for lower tier higher risk debt.

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Doomcouver
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Yeah this unwinding has a real possibility of rippling through the whole mortgage system. I think this is the main reason all our banks saw a downgrade from Moody’s recently. There’s a lot of rotten apples disguised as AAA mortgages in Canada.

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Dave
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This is why I am shorting the banks right now.

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3 months 6 days ago
Best place on meth
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An actual short, or is there an inverse ETF?

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Dave
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Inverse ETF.

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3 months 5 days ago
ostritch
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Mighty costly if you’re wrong.

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3 months 4 days ago
Egad
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isn’t home capital in crisis because of the
Broker fraud story? There have been no stories of bad loans or delinquent loans. Solvency was not an issue until the broker fraud story was pumped by the short sellers causing a run on deposits and, only then, a solvency issue.

How does this have any parcelles to the big banks?

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Egad
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… Parallels to the big banks…

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Dave
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I don’t trade based on fundamental analysis but on technical analysis. Right now, I see people heading to the exits with big bank stocks. The reason for that doesn’t matter to me other than as a point of interest. Likewise, I also don’t think it matters what the trigger for the HCG bank run was but the fact that it happened. It may very well have been BS but sometimes the market is just looking for an excuse or specific event to make a move. And just because the tigger may be BS, it doesn’t follow that the market reaction is as well. What’s the parallel to big banks? Investors are looking less confident in the quality of bonds right now than they were a few weeks ago. Why do you think the banks were so quick to extend capital… Read more »
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southseacompany
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“Merrill Lynch: Canada’s housing market a symptom of a larger problem”, Globe & Mail

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/inside-the-market/merrill-lynch-canadas-housing-market-a-symptom-of-a-larger-problem/article34966766/

“Merrill Lynch economist Carlos Capistran published a report arguing that the Canadian housing bubble is a mostly a symptom of excessive debt, and not the primary problem, and the Bank of Canada should signal rate hikes immediately,”

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Dave
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No kidding. The Bank should never have cut rates when oil fell and took our dollar with it. That was a massive mistake by Poloz. He knows that if he raises rates now, the housing market will correct. He’s not going to do it until he’s absolutely forced to and that means higher inflation has to come first.

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3 months 6 days ago
Doomcouver
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There are some compelling arguments I have read that outline many central banks including the BoC are entering a liquidity trap. For anyone who is unfamiliar with the term, a liquidity trap is a Keynesian concept where efforts to increase the money supply have no real affect on interest rates charged to borrowers from private banks. If BoC rates become unattached from private bank rates, lowering interest rates at the BoC will have no affect on interest rates for consumers, thus the BoC will have no real ability to stimulate economic activity. I’m interested to see how the Home Capital situation plays out. We could potentially be entering a scenario where interest rates will start climbing independent of what the BoC rate is. If this happens, our central bank may lose complete control over real interest rates. Looking at the… Read more »
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Dave
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We saw this to some extent in the US. The liquidity didn’t trickle down as quickly as the Fed wanted. The banks were happy to take that liquidity to shore up their balance sheets, but they were cautious to expand it to the average homeowner.

Regardless of that, we basically at the zero bound as is. We’ve been at 0.5% for so long that I think all the money to lend has already been extended more or less.

Quantitative Easing can keep the market interest rates lower, as many Central Banks did this past decade. But, what we’ve seen is it doesn’t necessary create more borrowing.

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history
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QE?

They brought monetary reserves forward, in both the USA and in Canada, but it showed up differently. In the USA it was through the stockmarket, ie. stock buybacks. In Canada it was with Real Estate.

We are at a point now that Paying stuff forward has reached the guy in line at Tim Hortons, who is confused about the process. He noticed the new cashier is from Nigeria and just short changed him on a Twenty. Instead of 16 + dollars change, he got 11 +

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ostritch
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Huh?

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3 months 4 days ago
KickThemOut
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What’s a FFAA without a link spam from our two favorite link spammers!

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bullwhip29
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Thanks to what Elections B.C. is calling a “transcription error,” Liberal Joan Isaacs has stretched her lead in the tightly contested riding of Coquitlam-Burke Mountain from 170 to 268 votes
http://vancouversun.com/news/politics/b-c-election-2017-liberal-lead-grows-in-coquitlam-burke-mountain-following-vote-correction

>>> if only the Canucks had some of this luck during recent draft lotteries…

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Best place on meth
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Still a small enough lead that it can be overturned in 2 weeks.

Here is a simulation of possible outcomes with a 79% chance that nothing changes.

https://i.cbc.ca/1.4113211.1494619418!/fileImage/httpImage/image.png_gen/derivatives/original_620/possible-election-outcomes.png

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bullwhip29
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White Rock’s Marine Drive on the upswing http://www.peacearchnews.com/business/white-rocks-marine-drive-on-the-upswing/ >>> realtor, Jeffrey Copeland chimes in… “There’s some offshore owners that own some of the buildings. They have left them vacant with no intention of really renting them out,” “The 15 per cent tax on foreign buyers, that does not apply on commercial real estate. People who were looking at houses before are turning to look at commercial buildings as an investment.” “When they hear that it’s quiet and they hear that it’s slowed down, some people see that as an opportunity to buy up the real estate at a good price. Some people are scared off, but at the same time there are a lot of Chinese investors that think it’s a good time to buy in White Rock…” >>> translation: White Rock’s waterfront will be massively redeveloped with wall to… Read more »
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Shut It Down Already
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Translation: Jeffrey is full of shit.

Which specific buildings is he referring to? How does he know the owners and their intent?

Zolo says that White Rock has cratered for every property type except one bed condos. Somebody is trying to stir the pot.

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Doomcouver
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Yeah Jeffrey sounds like every other real estate pumper hoping he can create some artificial buzz to get a buying frenzy among Chinese investors. Hey Jeffey, news flash, the foreign investors aren’t coming. Capital controls in China are squeezing the waves of capital that were leaving the country down to a trickle. The money that’s left isn’t going to prop up your dying waterfront businesses.

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Shut It Down Already
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Almost. He’s trying to fuel a buying frenzy amongst locals who fear they’ll be priced out forever by foreigners if they don’t act immediately.

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history
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lots of better leisure commercial waterfront RE on VCR island. White Rock is good for quick access though. Bomb down in the truck from the oil fields, back at the AB tarsands camp cleaning toilets 6 hours later.

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Abdul Lahazi
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Say goodbye to the fish and Chips shops…

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Funky monkey
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Moby dicks fish and chips?

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history
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makes a good name for a Food Truck. Ive been wondering when PrivateEquity has the mobile food game figured out, and we get Subway on wheels… but im guesing it’s a labour issue, for the most part. If i was a venture capitalist well schooled in Exploitation Factor, i would build an adjacent living accommodation to the food truck, equipped with a 50ft chain, to keep locked around the employee leg.

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YVR
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” When they hear that it’s quiet and they hear that it’s slowed down, some people see that as an opportunity to buy up the real estate at a good price. ”

Yes that makes perfect sense. Not like we have seen the the more prices rise and get further from fundamental value the more people want to buy it. It may be an opportunity if was really was a “good price”. Of course it is nowhere near a good price. Right now White Rock is a falling knife. Chinese will be the last ones buying. The market is pretty much 100% locals on credit at this point.

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southseacompany
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The slide continues:
“Home Capital shares slide 12% as conference call fails to ease investor fears”, CBC

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/home-capital-friday-1.4112559

“Stock off as much as 20% in Friday trading after company executives discuss numbers and outlook”

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history
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Slowly it comes out, HCG has a skew towards new immigrant lending. Typical boilershop tactic. The Data Room is a couple of gum chewing High School drop outs, with a
good memories… they’ve had a hellofa run. The primary drug dealer is the big banks, so why worry?

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southseacompany
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“Home Capital Foe Says His Short’s Bigger Than Much of Board Owns”, Bloomberg

http://bloombergtv.ca/2017-05-11/news/industries/real-estate/home-capital-foe-says-his-shorts-bigger-than-much-of-board-owns/

“Marc Cohodes, the fund manager-turned-chicken farmer who has been betting Home Capital will fall since November 2014 — when the stock was near its peak — said his short position is now bigger than the total number of shares owned by almost all of Home Capital’s insiders. “

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Abdul Lahazi
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Cohodes has some cajones….

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southseacompany
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Is that what his ‘shorts are bigger’? : )

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kabloona
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I can’t get by the paywall, but there’s now an article listed on the globeandmail.com website titled “Morneau doesn’t rule out a bailout of Home Capital”…. WTF?!!!

Weren’t we told repeatedly that HCG didn’t matter one way or the other in the Grand Scheme of Bullet-Proof Canadian Real Estate prices….????

😉

No freaking bailout!!!!!

🙁

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Abdul Lahazi
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our tax dollars at work.

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history
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when the Mop uses the word bailout, they are talking about Organization insolvency. Walking dead isnt reserved for individuals. The North Americans have learned a thing or two from studying the Chinese. Soon there will be whole communities that are walking zombies, and the freedom class?… well, where will they be?

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Oracle
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BC Elections now saying it found 3000 misplaced absentee ballots.

Heads got to roll and massive protests must take place. This is voter fraud on a massive scale.

Today they have 179,000 ballots. before they had 176,000

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3 months 6 days ago
Dave
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I wonder how secure those ballots are. What would happen if somebody tried to steal them or burned down whatever building they are in? That would make for a hell of a story.

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3 months 6 days ago
Reasonfirst
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They are all at their separate electoral district offices. If anything happened (like a fire) before they were counted, it would be to one ED only and could result in a re-run of the electoral district vote only.

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3 months 3 days ago
bullwhip29
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link?

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3 months 6 days ago
patriotz
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The Action: The unit was shown to nearly 60 groups during a one-week period. Listing agent Paul Albrighton says it received five offers. The buyer lived nearby and purchased the unit for her daughter.

What They Got: The downtown studio suite is a square-shaped 371 square feet., with solarium and updated laminate flooring, custom-built storage closet and original kitchen and bathroom.

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3 months 6 days ago
history
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RE for Baby Bust generation is a Modern day chastity belt

notice i dont say Milennials? one reason is that idont know how to spell it, the other more important reason is that there are two peaks and three troughs in this generation. Not very good for analysis, but real good for the Deep State 5th coloumists to confuse the sheep. You know this because the same group calls those born after 911 as the Homeland generation… harhar… which homeland?

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3 months 5 days ago
paulb
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New
173
Price Change
40
Sold
145

TI:8597

Just listed! 1225 Elmwood Drive, North Vancouver http://www.clivestevepaul.com/Properties.php/Details/348#viewdetail
We list and sell a lot of real estate on the North Shore & Vancouver. I’ve always appreciated the support of the VCI community. If you know of anyone thinking of buying or selling don’t forget us! TY Paul http://www.clivestevepaul.com

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3 months 6 days ago
southseacompany
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“Mark Carney warns Bank of England interest rates set to RISE sooner than expected”, Express

http://www.express.co.uk/finance/city/803213/mark-carney-interest-rates-latest-update-news-economy-negative-savings-inflation

“MARK Carney warned Britons could see interest rates rise sooner than expected, as one of the Bank of England’s key policymakers again called for an immediate hike.”

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3 months 6 days ago
Londonernow
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Mark Carney is the dog that only barks. He will never raise rates as he’s first and foremost a politician. He will only raise rates if he’s forced to by the market, and that’s close to or possibly after he’s lost control, or once they replace him with a central banker who has such a mandate.
Carney’s plan was to be back in Canada by now as leader of the Liberals but the Trudeau win put paid to that.

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3 months 5 days ago
history
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Was it Dave that said banks must consider raising rates, because they arent making the money on loan volume? or something like that? I know personally, as a non debt person, with a burgeoning savings account, banks will need to entice me with higher interest rates, or I take my Wage money elsewhere. It’s just business.

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3 months 5 days ago
Londonernow
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Banks don’t actually need your deposits to lend money. The money they lend is created out of thin air. All they need is the minimum amount of risk capital to hold against your loan. For mortgage loans its next to nothing really.
Normally the banks pay for deposits as a cheap source of funding and to match their loan book assets but they know the Central Banks have got their backs more than ever so they actually don’t give a sh&%.

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3 months 5 days ago
patriotz
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“Banks don’t actually need your deposits to lend money.”

Nonsense. If they didn’t need deposits, Home Capital wouldn’t be in trouble, right?

“Normally the banks pay for deposits as a cheap source of funding and to match their loan book assets”

Because they have to.

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3 months 5 days ago
Londonernow
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You’re actually showing your stupidity if you think banks need your deposits to create credit.
And as for Home Capital, it ain’t a bank.

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3 months 5 days ago
YVR
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“And as for Home Capital, it ain’t a bank.”

Home Capital Group is “Home Bank” and is CDIC insured.

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3 months 5 days ago
Londonernow
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Home Bank was formerly CFF Bank and bought by Home Capital (again not a bank) only last year. Home Bank is a minuscule subsidiary of Home Capital (again to reiterate which is not a bank).

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3 months 5 days ago
Londonernow
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http://www.theglobeandmail.com/real-estate/the-market/home-capital-agrees-to-acquire-cff-bank-to-diversify-funds/article25914326/

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3 months 5 days ago
YVR
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“Home Bank is a minuscule subsidiary of Home Capital”

So why don’t they just magically create the deposits through Home Bank?

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3 months 5 days ago
Londonernow
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“magically create”? Seriously? Did you read the articles posted? Remaining ignorant isn’t winning an argument.

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3 months 5 days ago
Bestplaceonearth
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Wow, brilliant post. Go back to take econ 101 before posting.

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3 months 5 days ago
Londonernow
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https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/mar/18/truth-money-iou-bank-of-england-austerity

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3 months 5 days ago
Londonernow
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Hey BPOE, please educate yourself before you post. If you had dumb or biased professors it’s still your fault for not finding out how things really work.

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3 months 5 days ago
Dave
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No, I wouldn’t have said that. Rates are just a reflection of supply and demand of capital.

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3 months 5 days ago
history
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Demand for money must be pretty anaemic, given the low rate in family formation….. and supply is high, given money Reserves brought forward.

Could the asset clustrrfck be caused by the great bubble of boomers and their speculation habits? Should I refinance and punt the stockmarket?

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3 months 5 days ago
Dave
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Demand for debt in Canada has never been higher. Have a look at consumer debt to GDP. Low interest rates have encouraged greater borrowing because it’s easier to service that debt. I personally think stocks are a better place to be for the next 10 years compared to real estate in Canada.

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3 months 4 days ago
Dave
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And by stocks, I don’t mean the TSX, I mean the US.

Look at the big picture from a macro point of view… Canada is still a commodity based economy. There is a surplus of commodity production in the World. That environment favours consumer and manufacturing economies like the US and China. The only thing keeping us going here in BC is the recycling of profits from China into our real estate. I’m not sure how that ultimately unwinds.

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3 months 4 days ago
Oracle
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You believe what you post Southsea?

That’s BS. He will never raise rates. He is all hot air. Look at his record. Let’s stop posting this propaganda.

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3 months 5 days ago
ostritch
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OMG. This guy is a one trick pony. He ALWAYS says that.

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3 months 4 days ago
southseacompany
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“Supply scarce for condos as prices climb in Metro Vancouver”, CBC

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/vancouver-condo-market-high-1.4111631

“Experts blame the higher condo prices on a lack of new housing projects and government incentives such as the B.C. Home Owner Mortgage and Equity Partnership Program, which is aimed at helping first-time home buyers and has added new buyers to an already overheated market.”

“Tom Davidoff, an associate professor of urban economics at the University of British Columbia, said just as the housing market was starting to cool off, the introduction of the home-buyers program — which helps first-time home buyers with a loan of up to 5 per cent of the purchase price — propped up the market and helped drive up prices.”

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3 months 5 days ago
history
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Stopped reading at Experts.

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3 months 5 days ago
southseacompany
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“Mayday at Home Capital”, Globe & Mail

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/home-capital-saga-real-estate/article34972594/

“In the early hours of Monday, May 1, exhausted representatives for Home Capital and a group of lenders hung up the phone in frustration. A deal to give the company an emergency $2-billion loan appeared to be falling apart. Directors at the mortgage firm felt that without the money, they wouldn’t be able to open for business a few hours later.”

“The dramatic story of a financial institution’s near-collapse.”

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3 months 5 days ago
history
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boilerooms thrive on drama….. and telephones

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3 months 5 days ago
kabloona
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On the website, it states HCG was mere hours from collapse…. eek!

Cohodes sure called it…..whereas the stock touts on BNN regularly defended and promoted HCG as a great Canadian success story…(ha-ha!)

Very successful at getting people without any money to purchase overpriced houses, I suppose….

😉

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3 months 5 days ago
Vancouver Review
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May 13th 2017 Daily Review Vancouver Real Estate Housing Bubble News

https://youtu.be/bkG3w7mCQOM

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3 months 5 days ago
Bestplaceonearth
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Too much rubbish.

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3 months 5 days ago
Oh NO
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Cant help but notice, the majority of new Vancouver detached are 3-10m range, ie smart money rushing to exit?

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3 months 5 days ago
history
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ive mentioned in previous posts that this price range of housing represents the margin in the total market. He who controls the margin, controls the market. Up or down.

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3 months 4 days ago
Shut It Down Already
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The margin is the low end.

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3 months 4 days ago
history
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the margin is houses above 3 million. I said it a few months ago. A concerted effort was made to control this relatively small (thus the word Margin) inventory. And now we are seeing that i am right, yet again. Prices will come down aross the middle. A controlled deflation, is my guess

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3 months 4 days ago
UBC in Crisis Mode
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Did someone say Xi Jinping stopped the outflow of Chinese money? Wrong:

Van West sales (all $3 million +)
Jan. 2017: 59
Feb. 2017: 90
Ma. 2017: 97
Apr. 2017: 123

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3 months 5 days ago
Oracle
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criminal by our gov to allow this to continue.

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3 months 5 days ago
Oracle
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It’s local PR HAM that are buying multiple homes too.

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3 months 5 days ago
Confucius
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A cautionary tale.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/johnfvail/2017/05/12/what-was-japans-bubble-like-in-1989/#53da449ff70e

“global investors should always be wary of excessive market confidence when huge deviations from norms are considered acceptable just because they have lasted for a few years.”

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3 months 5 days ago
Just me
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http://moneyweek.com/the-crackdown-on-chinas-billionaires/

The crackdown on China’s billionaires

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3 months 4 days ago
Just me
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By the way, they are back in full swing. West side market on fire again.
Unless local governments start to actively reject foreign money in RE markets, Vancouver will never again be a livable city.

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3 months 4 days ago
bestplaceonearth
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it’s always a livable city for most; and not for the entitlement elites.

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3 months 4 days ago
Just me
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Livable for homeowners with small mortgages you mean?
Everyone else I know is struggling, including professionals.

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3 months 4 days ago
Shut It Down Already
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If they’re struggling with big mortgages then maybe they shouldn’t have bought in the first place and just maybe they were instrumental in driving prices higher.

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3 months 4 days ago
Just me
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Agreed.
But the valuations I am talking about are 1.5 mil or so. 3 millions and above is mostly chinese money.

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3 months 4 days ago
patriotz
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“Unless local governments start to actively reject foreign money in RE markets”

Local governments have no power to do this, indeed they do not process property transfers in the first place.

You know who does.

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3 months 4 days ago
kabloona
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You can read the bulk of the Globe and Mail article here at Z-H: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-05-13/canada-hasnt-seen-bank-run-such-decades-finance-minister-wont-rule-out-home-capital- “….Canada hasn’t seen a run on a bank such as this in decades, and many in the current crop of regulators have no personal experience dealing with the sort of crisis that unfolded in late April at Canada’s largest alternative mortgage lender. A source said regulators began co-ordinating discussions “early on” in the crisis, before Home Capital was front page news, but no one anticipated the company was so vulnerable. Last summer, OSFI had no concerns with the company’s capital levels, liquidity or stress test results, according to another person familiar with the matter. But as the week of April 24 progressed, regulators grew worried they may not be able to halt the company’s slide. At one meeting involving officials from OSFI, CDIC and the… Read more »
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history
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hey, all i said was Boileroomand someone else said Bucketshop. But the real zinger is HCG pandered to the naive immigrant flush with speculation excitement. Now they are debt slaves and will find it difficult to grow their broods, which is the real purpose behind Bringing Monetary Reserves forward.

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3 months 4 days ago
ostritch
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What? Can you make a point that’s less cryptic?

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3 months 4 days ago
history
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Same basic tactic as the credit card for people who dont need it. Students, for instance. Debt is most effective reducing human reproduction rates. New immigrants in Canada are high breeders. The housing bubble has done wonders for putting new Canadians in chains. Costs $150,000 to 200,000 to raise a kid in Canada. And you cant get out of your pickle with bankruptcy either. Insolvency rates set to explode in Toronto. What happens then? Immigrants cant flee, banking tracks you globally.

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3 months 3 days ago
wpDiscuz