Friday Free-for-all! May 12th 2017

It’s the end of another week in luxury land and that means it’s time for another Friday Free-for-all! This is our regularly scheduled end of the week news round up and open topic discussion thread for the weekend, here are a few recent links to kick off the chat:

Six Canadian banks cut by Moodys on debt
Strata must pay 554k to replace tree
Always a good time to buy
Home Capitol to sell $1.5b mortgages
Best option to move across the water?
We need this graph

So what are you seeing out there? Post your news links, thoughts and anecdotes here and have an excellent weekend!

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bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29
MarKoz
Member
Active Member

Prepared by Post Media Works for MacDonald Realty.

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

B.C. is likely to end up with a minority government: economist
http://globalnews.ca/news/3446041/bc-election-results-absentee-ballots/

southseacompany
Member
southseacompany

“Toronto Real Estate Agents Are Losing Their S**T Over These Charts”, Better Dwelling

https://betterdwelling.com/city/toronto/toronto-real-estate-agents-losing-st-charts/

“Toronto is seeing detached listings rise at a massive rate, while sales drop. The general public might not understand how important of an issue this is, but smart money has been taking note.”

Dave
Member

That’s some pretty bearish looking data. We’ll see if the trend continues and if it leaks into pricing.

Doomcouver
Guest
Doomcouver

This data is alarming. If there was a rush to the exits, it would definitely look like what we’re seeing in the inventory numbers here. I will be very interested to see the May numbers. Do we have any daily listing/sales numbers for Toronto? If it keeps going up it will almost inevitably cause panic selling to occur, with good reason.

Brian Ripley
Guest

On my listings chart (total listings, not new listings added)
http://www.chpc.biz/sales-listings.html
(2nd chart on the page)

…it looks like the bottom is in after 4 years of lower highs and lows.

BubbleTea
Guest
BubbleTea

Can you say “POP” in Toronto! HCG adds fuel to the fire. Will be very interesting to see how bad it gets in the coming weeks.

Hyper-mega-Bull
Member
Hyper-mega-Bull

I’d like to see a chart of all the times Ben Rabidoux was wrong.

ostritch
Member
ostritch

Me too. And I’d like the press to mention his track record and that he taught high school before becoming an analyst.

Combat roach
Guest
Combat roach

Fortunately, it can never happen in Vancouver due to a lack of supply, mountains, always eager students, housewives, homemakers and his Majesty Locust.

ostritch
Member
ostritch

The should put a statue of Gregor up on top of that condo building instead of a 25-yr old oak tree.

southseacompany
Member
southseacompany

“After Home Capital, Canada’s Whole Economy Suddenly Looks Frail”, Bloomberg

https://www.bloombergquint.com/business/2017/05/12/home-capital-a-minor-meltdown-that-s-left-canada-looking-frail

“Boom-times in Vancouver and Toronto look increasingly like the spillovers from debt-fueled housing bubbles, the kind that wrought havoc in so many Western countries last decade. A banking system long considered among the world’s soundest got hit by a Moody’s downgrade this week. The government has touted a transition away from commodity-dependence and toward hi-tech smarts; Canadians are waking up to the possibility that their economy got hooked on real-estate instead.”

southseacompany
Member
southseacompany

“Home Capital Warns of ‘Knock-On Effects’ If It Fails to Recover”, Bloomberg

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-05-12/home-capital-says-uncertain-of-future-as-it-reports-earnings

“Home Capital Group Inc. said it’s seeking new sources of funding to counter a run on deposits and warned that the failure of the Canadian lender would have significant “knock-on effects” in the broader mortgage market.”

southseacompany
Member
southseacompany

“Home Capital investors are victims of Canadian real estate uncertainty: Don Pittis”, CBC

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/home-capital-regulation-real-estate-1.4108122

“But if the company continues to weaken and fail, leaving its borrowers without an alternative source of money when their mortgages come due, Home Capital could itself become the trigger of larger real estate decline.”

Dave
Member

It’s not just Home Capital because other lenders don’t act in isolation. If there is a concern around debt quality, all the banks will reign in money for lower tier higher risk debt.

Doomcouver
Guest
Doomcouver

Yeah this unwinding has a real possibility of rippling through the whole mortgage system. I think this is the main reason all our banks saw a downgrade from Moody’s recently. There’s a lot of rotten apples disguised as AAA mortgages in Canada.

Dave
Member

This is why I am shorting the banks right now.

Best place on meth
Guest
Best place on meth

An actual short, or is there an inverse ETF?

Dave
Member

Inverse ETF.

ostritch
Member
ostritch

Mighty costly if you’re wrong.

Egad
Guest
Egad

isn’t home capital in crisis because of the
Broker fraud story? There have been no stories of bad loans or delinquent loans. Solvency was not an issue until the broker fraud story was pumped by the short sellers causing a run on deposits and, only then, a solvency issue.

How does this have any parcelles to the big banks?

Egad
Guest
Egad

… Parallels to the big banks…

Dave
Member
I don’t trade based on fundamental analysis but on technical analysis. Right now, I see people heading to the exits with big bank stocks. The reason for that doesn’t matter to me other than as a point of interest. Likewise, I also don’t think it matters what the trigger for the HCG bank run was but the fact that it happened. It may very well have been BS but sometimes the market is just looking for an excuse or specific event to make a move. And just because the tigger may be BS, it doesn’t follow that the market reaction is as well. What’s the parallel to big banks? Investors are looking less confident in the quality of bonds right now than they were a few weeks ago. Why do you think the banks were so quick to extend capital… Read more »
southseacompany
Member
southseacompany

“Merrill Lynch: Canada’s housing market a symptom of a larger problem”, Globe & Mail

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/inside-the-market/merrill-lynch-canadas-housing-market-a-symptom-of-a-larger-problem/article34966766/

“Merrill Lynch economist Carlos Capistran published a report arguing that the Canadian housing bubble is a mostly a symptom of excessive debt, and not the primary problem, and the Bank of Canada should signal rate hikes immediately,”

Dave
Member

No kidding. The Bank should never have cut rates when oil fell and took our dollar with it. That was a massive mistake by Poloz. He knows that if he raises rates now, the housing market will correct. He’s not going to do it until he’s absolutely forced to and that means higher inflation has to come first.

Doomcouver
Guest
Doomcouver
There are some compelling arguments I have read that outline many central banks including the BoC are entering a liquidity trap. For anyone who is unfamiliar with the term, a liquidity trap is a Keynesian concept where efforts to increase the money supply have no real affect on interest rates charged to borrowers from private banks. If BoC rates become unattached from private bank rates, lowering interest rates at the BoC will have no affect on interest rates for consumers, thus the BoC will have no real ability to stimulate economic activity. I’m interested to see how the Home Capital situation plays out. We could potentially be entering a scenario where interest rates will start climbing independent of what the BoC rate is. If this happens, our central bank may lose complete control over real interest rates. Looking at the… Read more »
Dave
Member

We saw this to some extent in the US. The liquidity didn’t trickle down as quickly as the Fed wanted. The banks were happy to take that liquidity to shore up their balance sheets, but they were cautious to expand it to the average homeowner.

Regardless of that, we basically at the zero bound as is. We’ve been at 0.5% for so long that I think all the money to lend has already been extended more or less.

Quantitative Easing can keep the market interest rates lower, as many Central Banks did this past decade. But, what we’ve seen is it doesn’t necessary create more borrowing.

history
Guest
history

QE?

They brought monetary reserves forward, in both the USA and in Canada, but it showed up differently. In the USA it was through the stockmarket, ie. stock buybacks. In Canada it was with Real Estate.

We are at a point now that Paying stuff forward has reached the guy in line at Tim Hortons, who is confused about the process. He noticed the new cashier is from Nigeria and just short changed him on a Twenty. Instead of 16 + dollars change, he got 11 +

ostritch
Member
ostritch

Huh?

KickThemOut
Member
KickThemOut

What’s a FFAA without a link spam from our two favorite link spammers!

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

Thanks to what Elections B.C. is calling a “transcription error,” Liberal Joan Isaacs has stretched her lead in the tightly contested riding of Coquitlam-Burke Mountain from 170 to 268 votes
http://vancouversun.com/news/politics/b-c-election-2017-liberal-lead-grows-in-coquitlam-burke-mountain-following-vote-correction

>>> if only the Canucks had some of this luck during recent draft lotteries…

Best place on meth
Guest
Best place on meth

Still a small enough lead that it can be overturned in 2 weeks.

Here is a simulation of possible outcomes with a 79% chance that nothing changes.

https://i.cbc.ca/1.4113211.1494619418!/fileImage/httpImage/image.png_gen/derivatives/original_620/possible-election-outcomes.png

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29
White Rock’s Marine Drive on the upswing http://www.peacearchnews.com/business/white-rocks-marine-drive-on-the-upswing/ >>> realtor, Jeffrey Copeland chimes in… “There’s some offshore owners that own some of the buildings. They have left them vacant with no intention of really renting them out,” “The 15 per cent tax on foreign buyers, that does not apply on commercial real estate. People who were looking at houses before are turning to look at commercial buildings as an investment.” “When they hear that it’s quiet and they hear that it’s slowed down, some people see that as an opportunity to buy up the real estate at a good price. Some people are scared off, but at the same time there are a lot of Chinese investors that think it’s a good time to buy in White Rock…” >>> translation: White Rock’s waterfront will be massively redeveloped with wall to… Read more »
Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

Translation: Jeffrey is full of shit.

Which specific buildings is he referring to? How does he know the owners and their intent?

Zolo says that White Rock has cratered for every property type except one bed condos. Somebody is trying to stir the pot.

Doomcouver
Guest
Doomcouver

Yeah Jeffrey sounds like every other real estate pumper hoping he can create some artificial buzz to get a buying frenzy among Chinese investors. Hey Jeffey, news flash, the foreign investors aren’t coming. Capital controls in China are squeezing the waves of capital that were leaving the country down to a trickle. The money that’s left isn’t going to prop up your dying waterfront businesses.

Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

Almost. He’s trying to fuel a buying frenzy amongst locals who fear they’ll be priced out forever by foreigners if they don’t act immediately.

history
Guest
history

lots of better leisure commercial waterfront RE on VCR island. White Rock is good for quick access though. Bomb down in the truck from the oil fields, back at the AB tarsands camp cleaning toilets 6 hours later.

Abdul Lahazi
Guest
Abdul Lahazi

Say goodbye to the fish and Chips shops…

Funkeymonkey
Member
Funkeymonkey

Moby dicks fish and chips?

history
Guest
history

makes a good name for a Food Truck. Ive been wondering when PrivateEquity has the mobile food game figured out, and we get Subway on wheels… but im guesing it’s a labour issue, for the most part. If i was a venture capitalist well schooled in Exploitation Factor, i would build an adjacent living accommodation to the food truck, equipped with a 50ft chain, to keep locked around the employee leg.

YVR
Guest
YVR

” When they hear that it’s quiet and they hear that it’s slowed down, some people see that as an opportunity to buy up the real estate at a good price. ”

Yes that makes perfect sense. Not like we have seen the the more prices rise and get further from fundamental value the more people want to buy it. It may be an opportunity if was really was a “good price”. Of course it is nowhere near a good price. Right now White Rock is a falling knife. Chinese will be the last ones buying. The market is pretty much 100% locals on credit at this point.

southseacompany
Member
southseacompany

The slide continues:
“Home Capital shares slide 12% as conference call fails to ease investor fears”, CBC

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/home-capital-friday-1.4112559

“Stock off as much as 20% in Friday trading after company executives discuss numbers and outlook”

history
Guest
history

Slowly it comes out, HCG has a skew towards new immigrant lending. Typical boilershop tactic. The Data Room is a couple of gum chewing High School drop outs, with a
good memories… they’ve had a hellofa run. The primary drug dealer is the big banks, so why worry?

southseacompany
Member
southseacompany

“Home Capital Foe Says His Short’s Bigger Than Much of Board Owns”, Bloomberg

http://bloombergtv.ca/2017-05-11/news/industries/real-estate/home-capital-foe-says-his-shorts-bigger-than-much-of-board-owns/

“Marc Cohodes, the fund manager-turned-chicken farmer who has been betting Home Capital will fall since November 2014 — when the stock was near its peak — said his short position is now bigger than the total number of shares owned by almost all of Home Capital’s insiders. “

Abdul Lahazi
Guest
Abdul Lahazi

Cohodes has some cajones….

southseacompany
Member
southseacompany

Is that what his ‘shorts are bigger’? : )

kabloona
Member
kabloona

I can’t get by the paywall, but there’s now an article listed on the globeandmail.com website titled “Morneau doesn’t rule out a bailout of Home Capital”…. WTF?!!!

Weren’t we told repeatedly that HCG didn’t matter one way or the other in the Grand Scheme of Bullet-Proof Canadian Real Estate prices….????

😉

No freaking bailout!!!!!

🙁

Abdul Lahazi
Guest
Abdul Lahazi

our tax dollars at work.

history
Guest
history

when the Mop uses the word bailout, they are talking about Organization insolvency. Walking dead isnt reserved for individuals. The North Americans have learned a thing or two from studying the Chinese. Soon there will be whole communities that are walking zombies, and the freedom class?… well, where will they be?

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

BC Elections now saying it found 3000 misplaced absentee ballots.

Heads got to roll and massive protests must take place. This is voter fraud on a massive scale.

Today they have 179,000 ballots. before they had 176,000

Dave
Member

I wonder how secure those ballots are. What would happen if somebody tried to steal them or burned down whatever building they are in? That would make for a hell of a story.

Reasonfirst
Guest
Reasonfirst

They are all at their separate electoral district offices. If anything happened (like a fire) before they were counted, it would be to one ED only and could result in a re-run of the electoral district vote only.

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

link?

patriotz
Member
history
Guest
history

RE for Baby Bust generation is a Modern day chastity belt

notice i dont say Milennials? one reason is that idont know how to spell it, the other more important reason is that there are two peaks and three troughs in this generation. Not very good for analysis, but real good for the Deep State 5th coloumists to confuse the sheep. You know this because the same group calls those born after 911 as the Homeland generation… harhar… which homeland?

paulb
Member
Active Member

New
173
Price Change
40
Sold
145

TI:8597

Just listed! 1225 Elmwood Drive, North Vancouver http://www.clivestevepaul.com/Properties.php/Details/348#viewdetail
We list and sell a lot of real estate on the North Shore & Vancouver. I’ve always appreciated the support of the VCI community. If you know of anyone thinking of buying or selling don’t forget us! TY Paul http://www.clivestevepaul.com

southseacompany
Member
southseacompany

“Mark Carney warns Bank of England interest rates set to RISE sooner than expected”, Express

http://www.express.co.uk/finance/city/803213/mark-carney-interest-rates-latest-update-news-economy-negative-savings-inflation

“MARK Carney warned Britons could see interest rates rise sooner than expected, as one of the Bank of England’s key policymakers again called for an immediate hike.”

Londonernow
Member
Londonernow

Mark Carney is the dog that only barks. He will never raise rates as he’s first and foremost a politician. He will only raise rates if he’s forced to by the market, and that’s close to or possibly after he’s lost control, or once they replace him with a central banker who has such a mandate.
Carney’s plan was to be back in Canada by now as leader of the Liberals but the Trudeau win put paid to that.

history
Guest
history

Was it Dave that said banks must consider raising rates, because they arent making the money on loan volume? or something like that? I know personally, as a non debt person, with a burgeoning savings account, banks will need to entice me with higher interest rates, or I take my Wage money elsewhere. It’s just business.

Londonernow
Member
Londonernow

Banks don’t actually need your deposits to lend money. The money they lend is created out of thin air. All they need is the minimum amount of risk capital to hold against your loan. For mortgage loans its next to nothing really.
Normally the banks pay for deposits as a cheap source of funding and to match their loan book assets but they know the Central Banks have got their backs more than ever so they actually don’t give a sh&%.

patriotz
Member

“Banks don’t actually need your deposits to lend money.”

Nonsense. If they didn’t need deposits, Home Capital wouldn’t be in trouble, right?

“Normally the banks pay for deposits as a cheap source of funding and to match their loan book assets”

Because they have to.

Londonernow
Member
Londonernow

You’re actually showing your stupidity if you think banks need your deposits to create credit.
And as for Home Capital, it ain’t a bank.

YVR
Guest
YVR

“And as for Home Capital, it ain’t a bank.”

Home Capital Group is “Home Bank” and is CDIC insured.

Londonernow
Member
Londonernow

Home Bank was formerly CFF Bank and bought by Home Capital (again not a bank) only last year. Home Bank is a minuscule subsidiary of Home Capital (again to reiterate which is not a bank).

Londonernow
Member
Londonernow
YVR
Guest
YVR

“Home Bank is a minuscule subsidiary of Home Capital”

So why don’t they just magically create the deposits through Home Bank?

Londonernow
Member
Londonernow

“magically create”? Seriously? Did you read the articles posted? Remaining ignorant isn’t winning an argument.

Bestplaceonearth
Guest
Bestplaceonearth

Wow, brilliant post. Go back to take econ 101 before posting.

Londonernow
Member
Londonernow
Londonernow
Member
Londonernow

Hey BPOE, please educate yourself before you post. If you had dumb or biased professors it’s still your fault for not finding out how things really work.

Dave
Member

No, I wouldn’t have said that. Rates are just a reflection of supply and demand of capital.

history
Guest
history

Demand for money must be pretty anaemic, given the low rate in family formation….. and supply is high, given money Reserves brought forward.

Could the asset clustrrfck be caused by the great bubble of boomers and their speculation habits? Should I refinance and punt the stockmarket?

Dave
Member

Demand for debt in Canada has never been higher. Have a look at consumer debt to GDP. Low interest rates have encouraged greater borrowing because it’s easier to service that debt. I personally think stocks are a better place to be for the next 10 years compared to real estate in Canada.

Dave
Member

And by stocks, I don’t mean the TSX, I mean the US.

Look at the big picture from a macro point of view… Canada is still a commodity based economy. There is a surplus of commodity production in the World. That environment favours consumer and manufacturing economies like the US and China. The only thing keeping us going here in BC is the recycling of profits from China into our real estate. I’m not sure how that ultimately unwinds.

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

You believe what you post Southsea?

That’s BS. He will never raise rates. He is all hot air. Look at his record. Let’s stop posting this propaganda.

ostritch
Member
ostritch

OMG. This guy is a one trick pony. He ALWAYS says that.

southseacompany
Member
southseacompany

“Supply scarce for condos as prices climb in Metro Vancouver”, CBC

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/vancouver-condo-market-high-1.4111631

“Experts blame the higher condo prices on a lack of new housing projects and government incentives such as the B.C. Home Owner Mortgage and Equity Partnership Program, which is aimed at helping first-time home buyers and has added new buyers to an already overheated market.”

“Tom Davidoff, an associate professor of urban economics at the University of British Columbia, said just as the housing market was starting to cool off, the introduction of the home-buyers program — which helps first-time home buyers with a loan of up to 5 per cent of the purchase price — propped up the market and helped drive up prices.”

history
Guest
history

Stopped reading at Experts.

southseacompany
Member
southseacompany

“Mayday at Home Capital”, Globe & Mail

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/home-capital-saga-real-estate/article34972594/

“In the early hours of Monday, May 1, exhausted representatives for Home Capital and a group of lenders hung up the phone in frustration. A deal to give the company an emergency $2-billion loan appeared to be falling apart. Directors at the mortgage firm felt that without the money, they wouldn’t be able to open for business a few hours later.”

“The dramatic story of a financial institution’s near-collapse.”

history
Guest
history

boilerooms thrive on drama….. and telephones

kabloona
Member
kabloona

On the website, it states HCG was mere hours from collapse…. eek!

Cohodes sure called it…..whereas the stock touts on BNN regularly defended and promoted HCG as a great Canadian success story…(ha-ha!)

Very successful at getting people without any money to purchase overpriced houses, I suppose….

😉

Vancouver Review
Guest
Vancouver Review

May 13th 2017 Daily Review Vancouver Real Estate Housing Bubble News

https://youtu.be/bkG3w7mCQOM

Bestplaceonearth
Guest
Bestplaceonearth

Too much rubbish.

Oh NO
Guest
Oh NO

Cant help but notice, the majority of new Vancouver detached are 3-10m range, ie smart money rushing to exit?

history
Guest
history

ive mentioned in previous posts that this price range of housing represents the margin in the total market. He who controls the margin, controls the market. Up or down.

Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

The margin is the low end.

history
Guest
history

the margin is houses above 3 million. I said it a few months ago. A concerted effort was made to control this relatively small (thus the word Margin) inventory. And now we are seeing that i am right, yet again. Prices will come down aross the middle. A controlled deflation, is my guess

UBC in Crisis Mode
Guest
UBC in Crisis Mode

Did someone say Xi Jinping stopped the outflow of Chinese money? Wrong:

Van West sales (all $3 million +)
Jan. 2017: 59
Feb. 2017: 90
Ma. 2017: 97
Apr. 2017: 123

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

criminal by our gov to allow this to continue.

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

It’s local PR HAM that are buying multiple homes too.

Confucius
Guest
Confucius

A cautionary tale.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/johnfvail/2017/05/12/what-was-japans-bubble-like-in-1989/#53da449ff70e

“global investors should always be wary of excessive market confidence when huge deviations from norms are considered acceptable just because they have lasted for a few years.”

Just me
Guest
Just me

http://moneyweek.com/the-crackdown-on-chinas-billionaires/

The crackdown on China’s billionaires

Just me
Guest
Just me

By the way, they are back in full swing. West side market on fire again.
Unless local governments start to actively reject foreign money in RE markets, Vancouver will never again be a livable city.

bestplaceonearth
Guest
bestplaceonearth

it’s always a livable city for most; and not for the entitlement elites.

Just me
Guest
Just me

Livable for homeowners with small mortgages you mean?
Everyone else I know is struggling, including professionals.

Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

If they’re struggling with big mortgages then maybe they shouldn’t have bought in the first place and just maybe they were instrumental in driving prices higher.

Just me
Guest
Just me

Agreed.
But the valuations I am talking about are 1.5 mil or so. 3 millions and above is mostly chinese money.

patriotz
Member

“Unless local governments start to actively reject foreign money in RE markets”

Local governments have no power to do this, indeed they do not process property transfers in the first place.

You know who does.

kabloona
Member
kabloona
You can read the bulk of the Globe and Mail article here at Z-H: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-05-13/canada-hasnt-seen-bank-run-such-decades-finance-minister-wont-rule-out-home-capital- “….Canada hasn’t seen a run on a bank such as this in decades, and many in the current crop of regulators have no personal experience dealing with the sort of crisis that unfolded in late April at Canada’s largest alternative mortgage lender. A source said regulators began co-ordinating discussions “early on” in the crisis, before Home Capital was front page news, but no one anticipated the company was so vulnerable. Last summer, OSFI had no concerns with the company’s capital levels, liquidity or stress test results, according to another person familiar with the matter. But as the week of April 24 progressed, regulators grew worried they may not be able to halt the company’s slide. At one meeting involving officials from OSFI, CDIC and the… Read more »
history
Guest
history

hey, all i said was Boileroomand someone else said Bucketshop. But the real zinger is HCG pandered to the naive immigrant flush with speculation excitement. Now they are debt slaves and will find it difficult to grow their broods, which is the real purpose behind Bringing Monetary Reserves forward.

ostritch
Member
ostritch

What? Can you make a point that’s less cryptic?

history
Guest
history

Same basic tactic as the credit card for people who dont need it. Students, for instance. Debt is most effective reducing human reproduction rates. New immigrants in Canada are high breeders. The housing bubble has done wonders for putting new Canadians in chains. Costs $150,000 to 200,000 to raise a kid in Canada. And you cant get out of your pickle with bankruptcy either. Insolvency rates set to explode in Toronto. What happens then? Immigrants cant flee, banking tracks you globally.

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