Friday Free-for-all! May 5th 2017

Whats up? Happy Cinco De Mayo!

It’s the end of another glorious workweek in debt paradise and that means it’s time for another Friday free-for-all post. This is our regular end of the week news round up and open topic discussion thread for the weekend, here are a few links to kick off the chat:

–This is an ugly market
–Home Capitol contagion?
–high density housing just like slave ships?
–highest price houses are for lowest incomes
–Toronto owners scramble to cash out
–Does standby financing give you confidence in lenders?
–

So what are you seeing out there? Post your news links, thoughts and anecdotes in the comments below and have an excellent weekend!

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the $200 margin of error | Vancouver Condo Info

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[…] is hard to believe, but apparently more than half of all Canadians are just $200 away from not being able to pay their […]

Guest

bullwhip29

and more blatant spin and manipulation at YVR this morning…two obvious problems with this are that Cargojet is actually headquartered in ontario and the bc govt has no ownership stake or say in the operations at YVR itself
https://www.facebook.com/ChristyClarkForBC/videos/10155576861830942/

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bullwhip29

krusty selfie at richmond night mkt on Sat PM…surprised the comments werent deleted
https://twitter.com/christyclarkbc/status/861222412628615168/photo/1

>>> i’m still going out on limb to suggest her being at that specific location was somehow tied to Ching Mo Yeung’s construction project located less than 100 feet away

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bullwhip29

Over half of Canadians are $200 or less away from not being able to pay bills
http://globalnews.ca/news/3434447/over-half-of-canadians-are-200-or-less-away-from-not-being-able-to-pay-bills/

Guest

Happy Planet

BC Lib minority with Greens holding balance of power.

More bike lanes, composting, farmers markets and…. home equity growth!

The world is unfolding as it should.

Member

KickThemOut

Want to make a real difference on May 9? Elect an INDEPENDENT candidate that isn’t beholden to special interests. BC Libs, NDP, Greens, they are all beholden to their donors who are all basically run in the same circle. Want really change? elect independents that depend on their constituents only.

Guest

Faaaaaantastic

I’m voting Socred. For the good ole days.

Member

southseacompany

“Majority of Consumers Now See Canadian Home Prices Rising”, Bloomberg

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-05-08/majority-of-consumers-now-see-canadian-home-prices-rising

“Expectations for Canada’s housing market are heating up, with more than half of respondents in a weekly telephone survey predicting home prices will rise, the first time the measure has topped 50 percent in records dating back to 2008.”

“The bullishness comes even as a run on deposits at Toronto-based mortgage lender Home Capital Group Inc. leads to heightened scrutiny of a market which policy makers have said is divorced from economic fundamentals.”

Member

southseacompany

“Home Capital suspends dividend as savings account balances drop to $192M”, CBC

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/home-capital-monday-1.4104279

“Home Capital has withdrawn $1.4 billion of the $2 billion loan it was recently given as savers continue to pull funds out of the alternative mortgage lender at an alarming rate.”

“As more people withdraw their money, Home Capital is burning through cash, including that lifeline. Unless the company can stem the tide — and fast — they soon won’t have enough cash left to loan out new mortgages to stay in business, despite having a portfolio of mortgages that the company says “continues to perform well.””

Member

KickThemOut

They don’t need to new money to loan out to stay in business….geez…if you really believed that, you have no idea how banking works.

Which is not that surprising given bear’s general economics knowledge.

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bullwhip29

Spectre of empty houses haunt Canada’s two most expensive housing markets
http://business.financialpost.com/business/spectre-of-empty-houses-haunt-canadas-two-most-expensive-housing-markets

Member

KickThemOut

You are worried because???? I though the housing market is going to crash and all those speculators are going to be forced to sell for pennies on the dollar? The more supply, the better choices and price leverage for bears to kick the owners in the crotch?

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bullwhip29

New poll points to Liberal majority
http://vancouversun.com/news/local-news/new-poll-points-to-liberal-majority-despite-slight-ndp-edge-in-support

>>> so is the msm trying to front run the results and not get caught with egg on their faces as they did in 2013….or will they be completely wrong again?

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bullwhip29

Home Capital suspends dividend as savings account balances drop to $192M
http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/home-capital-monday-1.4104279

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Abdul Lahazi

When I read this I have to wonder why anybody would vote BC Liberal:
http://www.macleans.ca/politics/will-money-and-arrogance-cost-christy-clark-the-b-c-election/
Even some long-time Liberal operatives are furious. Paul Doroshenko, a Vancouver lawyer and Liberal volunteer who worked on former premier Gordon Campbell’s campaigns believes his party has “abandoned its commitment to a regulated market economy, and become a club for donors to the B.C. Liberal Party.” Clark “sold us out,” Doroshenko goes on. “Regular people have been shut out.”

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bullwhip29

What was Christy Clark really doing in Richmond last evening? http://www.theprovince.com/news/local+news/election+2017+clark+moves+prop+metro+ridings+against/13351684/story.html >>> article suggests she ended evening at Richmond Night Market, but this doesn’t pass the sniff test with me since it does not open until next week. i honestly find it hard to believe she would go to the trouble to appease voters in rmd by visiting a site where she wouldnt be seen by the public nor do i think it would have been worthwhile to interupt what must be a pedal to the metal schedule just to take a selfie. i had heard rumors the libs were going to crash the Ships to Shore festival but these did not pan out. Perhaps the reported very small and predominantly caucasian crowd was the reason? OR maybe just maybe she was really hooking up with Cheng Mo Yeung among… Read more »

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bullwhip29

and what will she be doing in Richmond today?

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bullwhip29

BC Liberals accused of placing misleading ads in Chinese-language newspapers
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/british-columbia/bc-liberals-accused-of-placing-misleading-ads-in-chinese-language-newspapers/article34916345/

Guest

Oracle

48 hrs left until Christy defeat.

Huge turnout always bad news for governing party.

Get the NDP vote out.

Seems like people smarter than Libs give them credit for. There is no Green surge.

Member

Dave

We don’t know if the vote is really up because the number of early voters keeps increasing each election as people get used to doing it. I also wouldn’t agree that even if we knew there were higher numbers, it would be bad for the Liberals for two reasons. Their biggest risk in this election, in my view, was voter apathy. I think the risk is soft Liberal support doesn’t show up. The second reason is that the Greens will increase the total number of voters. Some of their support pulls from existing parties but some of it also brings new voters in.

Guest

Shut It Down Already

Common sense prevails in France.

Fuck the racists.

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Just me

I think most people on this blog (myself included) are happy that Le Pen lost. Stop playing the race card, in Vancouver we are well oast that stage. It is about money, not race. And money talks really loud in this city . People like you are in fact one of the reasons we can make no progress limiting the money laundering activity.

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Shut It Down Already

Then follow the money to the 90% and the government policies that enable them. You are absolutely not following the money as things stand. You’re using it as a shield.

And you speak for nobody but yourself.

Guest

Just me

The money is largely coming from mainland China.
This is a it is a fact of life i. vancouver, that you willingly ignore with your ridiculous 10% figure. Your motives are unclear.
And yes, as always, I speak for myself. Why are you so surprised about it?

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Oracle

Are u dense just me?

He Is HAM (parents)

Guest

Shut It Down Already

Uh, I’m surprised because of your previous statement about how others felt about Le Pen’s defeat?

The money is largely coming from new mortgage originations and increased debt loads. We have data on this too you realize? Canadians have blown their brains out on debt and will have nobody to blame but themselves when all this unwinds.

I’m not “ignoring” the 10%, it’s just a drop in the ocean in comparison to the local stupidity.

Guest

Combat roach

I admire your patience and polite conduct wit the vulgar individuals and provocateurs. You are the real gentleman.

Member

Best place on meth

I’m so happy the bankers, the globalists and the empty suit won in France.

Wait no, fuck the EU.

Member

KickThemOut

Because SHID keeps calling a certain group of people locusts that need to be exterminated, and a certain country to be nuke by US? Yeah, that kind of thing would stop actual discussion wouldn’t it.

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Oracle

What about Tibet?

Racism run amok in your motherland.

Member

KickThemOut

Let me ask those foreign students at my work place. They seem to get pretty mad, as much as BPOM when Tibet gets mentioned.

here’s a joke, how do you know you are dealing with a real Indian? They keep asking why the world allow China to invade Tibet, and don’t take back Dalai Lama.

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Kim

Interesting story about a rich mainlander and her family holding lots of Nor Cal real estate, posting bail for this bitch murderer. Hope she gets the death penalty.

http://www.sfgate.com/news/crime/article/Prosecutors-Heiress-changed-his-life-then-11126326.php

Member

patriotz

‘I’m not doing this any more’: the rush to escape Sydney’s mad house prices

Member

patriotz

Jared Kushner’s family criticised for touting cash-for-visas scheme in China

On Saturday, Kushner’s sister, Nicole Kushner Meyer, took to the stage at an event at Beijing’s Ritz-Carlton hotel to urge Chinese investors to back One Journal Square, two skyscrapers currently being built in New Jersey.
Members of the audience of 100 were reportedly told that if they stumped up at least half a million dollars for the project they could become US residents under a controversial cash-for-residency program that is known in China as the “golden visa”.

Member

Sebastien

https://mises.org/blog/how-governments-outlaw-affordable-housing

Member

Hyper-mega-Bull

To understand and believe this is to be a housing bull.

Member

Best place on meth

I voted today and was disapointed to find out there was no place to write in a candiate.

I was hoping to to write in the Hells Angels as they are far less corrupt than the BC liberals.

“HELLS ANGELS: Creating economic opportunities for your children that will last their full 10 year lifetime!”

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CBM999

The HA stopped and helped me change a flat tire one time in White Rock. Don’t have anything bad to say about them, I don’t think Christy Clark would have done that!

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Oracle

The Angels are far less corrupt than who we have in power now.

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Confucius

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/may/03/wealthy-feel-pinch-of-housing-costs-as-one-in-four-australians-face-mortgage-stress

Pretty similar to the reports about Canadians. Probably nothing to worry about because it’s gone on too long to be a bubble.

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Just me

This the single most important reason why I believe that the latest flaring up of the market will not ignite a new boom in SFH and more expensive homes (especially not on the West Side, where I expect further weakness later in the year if China’s givernment keeps its course).

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-05-07/china-reserves-rise-a-third-month-amid-tighter-capital-controls

Of course, condos and cheap townhomes are a different business. Boxes in the sky exchanged among cash-poor locals.

How sad that we have to rely on Xi Jinping and the Chinese autocrats to stop the flows of illegal money that our politicians openly courted.

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Confucius

Anecdote from the trenches. As a I walked up to one of the Tricity swimming pools, I heard one receptionists say to the other “Just buy a house for a million and rent the basement out”.

I’ll have to admit, this strategy has worked for the past 14 years, but when does the music stop as it always does?

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Combat roach

Receptionist…

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Confucius

Mainland Chinese reception. Does that work even better for you?

Member

KickThemOut

Mainland Chinese receptionists speaking in mandarin with their mouth full.

How’s that? Did you get off on that Roach?

Guest

Egad

Can you name a 14 year bubble that burst? Bubbles last 5-7 years. Not 14. And this price boom began in 2001. We are on year 16. This is not a bubble. The music will not stop.

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Confucius

Are you serious? US bubble was 10 years, so by your definition it wasn’t a bubble? I guess our bubble is just special then. US bubble almost took down the entire financial system, imagine what ours could do.

https://www.google.ca/search?client=tablet-android-lenovo&biw=600&bih=375&ei=Dp4OWbe0MomkjwPF1p2gDw&q=robert+shiller+housing+bubble+chart&oq=robert+shiller+housing+bubble+chart&gs_l=mobile-gws-serp.3…4948.6355.0.6561.7.7.0.0.0.0.115.568.3j3.6.0….0…1c.1j4.64.mobile-gws-serp..1.5.496…0j0i22i30k1j33i22i29i30k1j33i21k1j33i160k1.i9Z1lRPNcw8#imgrc=8NEcL5kyjYH5TM:

Member

patriotz

“US bubble was 10 years, so by your definition it wasn’t a bubble?”

Average US house prices went up for 10 years (from 1995 to 2005) but that certainly doesn’t mean there was a bubble for 10 years. Some major US markets such as California experienced busts in the early 1990’s and inflation adjusted prices were low by historical norms until around 2001.

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Confucius

Unnecessary nitpicking. I fully understand the first part of the bull market may not have been a bubble. I was mainly pointing out that the lengthy bill run did end as they always do.

Its interesting that you bring this fact up. Vancouver’s home prices were relatively affordable early in our bull run, but you’ve been calling bubble ever since……

Member

patriotz

“you’ve been calling bubble ever since……”

Since when? The first Vancouver bubble forums didn’t exist until 2005, five years after the market bottom at the end of the 1990’s. Prices started falling three years later in 2008 and would have kept falling if government hadn’t taken extraordinary measures to stop the decline.

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Confucius

2005 is when you started calling it a bubble? I’ve heard you’ve been around since the beginning of these blogs. So you thought 5 years of price growth after a lengthy flat nominal price period was a bubble? I consider that early bull market. 2006-2007 got bubbly.

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Shut It Down Already

And Canadian house prices weren’t high in 2003 either.

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Joe Condo

Can you name any bubble that government have tried so hard to keep from bursting?

Member

Best place on meth

We’ve never seen these conditions in human history.

Lowest interest rates ever combined with the most populous country on earth sending all of it’s new found and new stolen wealth overseas.

Guest

YVR

Can you name a 14 year bubble that burst?
Yes here are two. Have a look at the chart. Count to 14 years on both the US and Japan. After 14 years going up in year 15 they both started the decline.
http://www.businessinsider.com/chart-of-the-day-us-housing-bust-vs-japans-2009-6

Member

Doomcouver

Haha this is the most idiotic attempted refutation of the Canadian housing bubble I’ve ever heard. You’re basically saying the prices have gone up too high to crash. Massive immigration, not building any more land, BPOE: all less moronic excuses than yours, please pick one.

Member

southseacompany

“How Condo Flippers are Making a Killing in Toronto’s Hot Housing Market: Globe & Mail

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/toronto/condo-flipping-toronto-hot-housing-market/article34908345/?cmpid=rss1&google_editors_picks=true

“Inside the Toronto condo building where quick slavs are earning investors up to $2,900 a day”

Member

southseacompany

Sorry, that’s ‘quick sales’.

No racial blame intended.

Bubble? What Bubble?