Poloz: HCG problems ‘idiosyncratic’ and contained

Bullwhip29 pointed out this article in the financial post where Bank of Canada governor Stephen Poloz says that the troubles at Home Capital are ‘idiosyncratic‘ and contained:

Poloz said the central bank saw no signs that Home Capital’s deterioration had triggered contagion, according to an interview with the newspaper on the sidelines of the Group of Seven meeting of finance ministers and central bankers in Italy.

“We’d be looking for signs that there are problems with the (financial) system as opposed to preoccupying ourselves with individual institutions,” Poloz said.

He also has some stuff to say about the housing market in general:

Poloz also reiterated in the interview the central bank’s view that recent house price increases were not sustainable, and echoed previous statements that some speculation appeared to be at play in the market. He added that did not mean a major price correction was in store.

“Often, when you have a truly unsustainable housing market, you will see very rapid price increases (and) very rapid credit growth,” Poloz said. “But we don’t see that in the credit side, so I do think a significant amount of this that is fundamental, but layered on top, is a speculative element.”

Read the full article here.

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kabloona
Member
kabloona
Just another reason to never buy a strata property…. “Condo board battle: String of disputes raises questions about elected directors” http://www.theglobeandmail.com/real-estate/condo-board-battle-string-of-disputes-raises-questions-about-elected-directors/article34985050/ “On a muggy evening last summer, unit owners from the Five Condos tower in downtown Toronto gathered at the InterContinental Hotel for the meeting that would elect from among them five directors to oversee over their new building’s $2.5-million budget. Three of the elected candidates, Darryl McGregor, Ray Blanchard and George Laczko, sat separately, not acknowledging that they knew one another. They in fact represented the same unit, No. 1306…… ….It was part of a series of fierce battles punctuated by allegations of voting irregularities that have raised the spectre of a concerted attempt to seize control of Toronto condo boards and their multimillion dollar budgets. One of the consequences of Toronto’s condo boom has been the creation of… Read more »
KickThemOut
Member
KickThemOut

So basically locusts up to their usual scummy behavior?

history
Guest
history

.. it was a dark and muggy night, as the Mop met Pail. The night janitor had a floor to clean… Out beyond thhe dock was a call from a cormorant, a fish jumped next to the peir. The cleaner smoked his first cigarette. Maybe, he wished, a strata councillor would appear and settle his bill, but he was not hopeful.

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

Why home listings may have hit a 20-year low in BC
http://www.news1130.com/2017/05/15/home-listings-hit-20-year-low-bc-compared-april-2016/

UBC Economist Tom Davidoff says it’s hard to find people who are motivated to sell their home because of capital gains. “It seems like idiosyncratic reasons for the move are more common.

Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

It’s not the gains that are the problem, its the recency bias that leads to an expectation of further gains in the future. Greed.

With inventory this low it’s surely the best time ever to be a seller.

kabloona
Member
kabloona

Agreed…… at least anecdotally. 🙂

KickThemOut
Member
KickThemOut

What an idiot! A capital gain tax of 0% on residential property is so onerous, and the horror…the HORROR of pocketing so much capital gain!!

paulb
Member

New
331
Price Change
59
Sold
130
TI:8759

clivestevepaul.com

Vancouver Review
Guest
Vancouver Review

May 15, 2017 Daily Review Vancouver Real Estate Housing Bubble News

https://youtu.be/-R-iN-fmjAY

Just me
Guest
Just me
Combat roach
Guest
Combat roach

This is expected for TO but it’s not going to happen in the cities predominantly owned by Chinese.

4 Signs Toronto’s Housing Bubble Has Started To Deflate

http://m.huffpost.com/ca/entry/16623368

Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

Why is that then, genius?

Combat roach
Guest
Combat roach

Uhh, you are so…

Combat roach
Guest
Combat roach

It is their compound investment in a casino (city) as a whole. Parasites pick up the place (organism) which they infest and open/maintain casino to profit from the infinite supply of greater fools from motherland in a long run while in the meantime fuck up locals immensely. It is parasitic business model where leaches pick the attractive location to gamble, launder shit and profit at the expense of the entire foreign cities and societies. There are multiple instances implementing this parasitic business model across the world, Vancouver being one of them at the top.

Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

“It is their compound investment in a casino (city) as a whole.”

What on earth does that even mean? Can you be specific and try and formulate a single post without using derogatory terms, you vile little person?

history
Guest
history

… recent?

C.Junta
Member
C.Junta

>says that the troubles at Home Capital
>are ‘idiosyncratic‘ and contained

Ok, I consider this an official announcement. So, NOW it’s time to short HCG (unless you profited from shorting it already) , MIC and Big 5. Also, time to do some research about Canadian banks with higher than average mortgage exposure.

Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

Let us know the details of your trade?

Best place on meth
Guest
Best place on meth

One of the biggest speculative investments this country has ever seen was hiring Poloz to head the BOC.

This won’t end well.

Fomo
Guest
Fomo

IN oz…

The government recently responded to Australia’s housing affordability crisis by introducing a new initiative that would allow first-time home buyers the opportunity to “salary sacrifice” $10,000 of their own money into their superannuation fund, (basically a pension) which they can then use on a house deposit later down the track.

BuzzFeed News was told just last week that the scheme would only drive up house prices.

southseacompany
Member
southseacompany

“Credit union employees say high-pressure sales targets turn ‘members’ into ‘marks'”, CBC

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/credit-union-employees-say-sales-targets-too-high-1.4109076

“The former Coast Capital Savings employee says he recently quit after seeing sales targets ramp up so high “we stopped acting for our members, and only cared about the sale.””

“”If I didn’t constantly push people into more debt, my manager would tell me, ‘You’re on the bus, or you’re flattening the tires.’ That was the attitude.””

Yikes
Guest
Yikes

Home Capital says today high interest savings deposit withdrawals have slowed and all is ok……well no shit they slowed 80%of the money is gone not much more to pull that is until gic s start to ripen over the next couple yrs, that’s where the big money lies. So shit has yet to really splat but it’s coming

kabloona
Member
kabloona

Actually, over 90% of short-term deposits were withdrawn….

🙂

https://www.thestar.com/business/real_estate/2017/05/12/home-capital-buys-time-during-crisis-of-confidence.html

“….Depositors have withdrawn nearly 94 per cent of funds from Home Capital’s high-interest savings accounts since the company terminated Reid, though data it released Friday showed the rate of withdrawals has slowed….”

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

How long would Canadian millennials have to avoid $19 avocado toast to save for a home?
http://globalnews.ca/news/3454107/avocado-toast-home-buying/

patriotz
Member

BC Liberals planning to introduce reworked, Green Party-influenced budget

Looks like Christy is betting that the Greens are unwilling to support the NDP and she can get their support by throwing the Greens a few crumbs and ignoring the really big issues. She’s probably right.

history
Guest
history

Called it.

Greens Weaver is totally in the BC Lib bag. Libs gave up on LNG, to advance Weaver Run of River power . But the real gravy is the tertiary RE development around these projects. Think of it as Building the National railroad. Capitalists got rich on owning the initial Right of way land development.

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

greens are Liberal Team B.

Too bad their followers didn’t see that.

Abdul Lahazi
Guest
Abdul Lahazi

http://www.news1130.com/2017/05/15/ap-exclusive-chinese-spent-24b-on-us-other-golden-visas-2/

The EB-5 program and many others like it market heavily in China.

China’s “golden visa” investors are part of a wave characterized not by poverty, persecution or war, but by people with steady jobs and homes who are pursuing happiness that’s eluded them in their homeland.

Key to their spending power is China’s real estate boom. Real estate prices in China’s largest cities have more than tripled in the last decade, with prices in Beijing rising by an average of 25 per cent a year during that time. Since late 2015 alone, Beijing’s home prices have jumped 63 per cent, making a 1,300 square-foot (120 square-meter) apartment worth more than $1 million.

KickThemOut
Member
KickThemOut

So basically prove positive that all Chinese money are dirty and corrupt, made of the backs of poor serfs by the privileged few. I told you people! That’s all they know, making dirty money from RE and launder it in Canada.

Not to mention sending their stupid kids here who can’t speak basic English sentence after graduating from SFU and UBC. Well, at least some of the female grads are good eye candy. Otherwise, I would go insane already. Any smart Chinese I’ve worked with are either local born or came from HK, with a few sprinklings from Taiwan.

Combat roach
Guest
Combat roach

You nailed it, amen.

Hyper-mega-Bull
Member
Hyper-mega-Bull

why would they learn english? they have the money.

you’re the one who needs to learn mandarin.

squeak
Member
squeak

Lemme see..
So the Canadian housing market is trashed, not for Canadians anymore.
Thanks Government.

Canadian higher education just was confirmed a joke.
Thanks Government.

I guess health care is next.. oh wait: the crisis is the new normal.

Anything else that used to be proudly Canadian that can be trashed?

Bestplaceonearth
Guest
Bestplaceonearth

You are so smart, why are you still landless?

southseacompany
Member
southseacompany

“‘The worst scenario’: What if Canada’s real estate bubble bursts?”, CBC

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/peter-armstrong-housing-bubble-crash-1.4115628

“Benjamin Tal, deputy chief economist at CIBC World Markets, says the important question isn’t how far prices would fall, but why they fell in the first place. ”

“If they fell as a result of a quick rise in interest rates, as happened in the United States in 2006, the impact could be severe. “

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

Foreign buyers seek shelter from the storm
https://www.biv.com/article/2017/5/investors-seek-shelter-storm/

Hyper-mega-Bull
Member
Hyper-mega-Bull

some are still in denial about globalization.

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

Worst fear for B.C. business: a minority government
https://www.biv.com/article/2017/5/worst-fear-bc-business-minority-government/

KickThemOut
Member
KickThemOut

Well, good for us since it means there will be very little done in the government and free market can actually operate a little better. And no NDP with their stupid policies! God…a decade under NDP deux 2 would result in a mini-culture revolution in our own, with who knows how many lives ruined and family destroyed.

Dave
Member
I don’t see it that way. I think we are going to see growth in public sector spending because that’s the only real area the Liberals can compromise with the Green Party. That structural spending will never go away either and is a tax burden. Private sector projects and infrastructure will take a back seat. Municipal politics are challenging enough in their own right, but without Provincial leadership, it will become a mess, especially in light of the transit referendum. Very little got done under the NDP in the 90s as well and it wasn’t a good thing. I don’t see this minority mix as being very workable. The Greens and Liberal priorities are very far apart. The Greens and the NDP have a lot of overlap but won’t work together for that reason. I think the public will become… Read more »
history
Guest
history

Growth in Public sector is the development of the Queens lands for Run of Water. This is going on now, at higher speed. Thus. lots of Free softwood lumber coming onto the market. Trumps’s minions saw it coming and hit exports up for tarriffs.

Combat roach
Guest
Combat roach

“The George Massey bridge could be shelved, liquefied natural gas projects delayed, thermal coal exports taxed out of existence, and B.C. could again become a climate action leader with North America’s highest, fastest-rising carbon taxes.
These are just some of the possible outcomes of a minority BC Liberal government compelled to make concessions to a BC Green Party ”

Where the fuck is 30% Locust tax and other housing crap? That is the most important part in making any minority deals.

Hyper-mega-Bull
Member
Hyper-mega-Bull

lol, all this thanks to the morons who voted green.

Dave
Member

The Greens will try to portray themselves as middle of the road progressive moderates. Watch them advocate for social spending to try and take some of that NDP vote.

I doubt the NDP or Greens will push too hard to kill the golden real estate goose because they don’t have a lot to gain. If things continue as they are, it’s easy to blame the Liberals. If they improve, then it’s no longer an election issue. And as we already know, the Liberals aren’t going to kill the market either.

history
Guest
history

the goose that laid the golden eggs? … just follow the bridge builders. Every fresh egg they lay across a waterway, takes a speculator and her Crossover, into new frontiers.

southseacompany
Member
southseacompany

This is about the UK market, but it holds for here too;

“The compact at the heart of the dysfunctional housing market”, Financial Times

https://www.ft.com/content/eab69988-2f3d-11e7-9555-23ef563ecf9a

“Homeowners are a larger, older group than potential first-time buyers. They are more prone to vote at elections and also have a say in the planning process, which potential owners do not.”

“So when politicians promise to make homes more affordable they are being utterly disingenuous because the requisite drop in house prices might lead to their being thrown out by the large pool of owners whose houses would be worth less. They prefer instead to bolster demand by offering financial support to first-time buyers.”

Just me
Guest
Just me

Eloquent and true.
In BC this interest group votes BC Libs every election.

Confucius
Guest
Confucius

From various sources, I’ve heard a lot of opinions about Vancouver’s real estate prices being sustainable because price have gone up for so long. I’d like to open up this topic for discussion.

Real estate cycles have lasted roughly 18 years on average in the US and UK.
https://tinyurl.com/kxvjk5w

If you look at Vancouver’s price chart, the last top was in 1995. We’re in year 22, although longer than average, it’s only 4 years more at this point.
http://www.yattermatters.com/2017/04/is-the-bloom-off-of-vancouvers-real-estate-market-has-yet-to-bloom/

Also, after the peak of 81 and 95, it took roughly 8 years to regain the nominal price. Toronto’s price history also shows the clear cycles they have experienced and the many years it took to regain peak nominal prices.
http://www.torontohomes-for-sale.com/4a_custpage_2578.html

paulb
Member

New
257
Price Change
55
Sold
325
TI:8609

Just listed! 879 Old Lillooet Road, North Van. 1900 sq.ft 5 bedroom home for 798,000!
http://www.clivestevepaul.com/Properties.php/Details/310#viewdetail

We list and sell a lot of real estate on the North Shore & Vancouver. I’ve always appreciated the support of the VCI community. If you know of anyone thinking of buying or selling don’t forget us! TY Paul http://www.clivestevepaul.com

history
Guest
history

Paul, we need a champion to give us the Mortgage Refinance stats. If you know anyone….

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

a lot of SOLD signs popped up in Rmd in last two weeks. i wonder if we see any post election buyer’s remorse kick in at some point?

Vancouver Review
Guest
Vancouver Review

May 16th, 2017 Daily Review Vancouver Real Estate Housing Bubble News

https://youtu.be/ifQror5Kp6c

southseacompany
Member
southseacompany

“Canada has a 30% chance of a housing ‘bust’ as the third riskiest market in G10, Goldman warns”, Financial Post

http://business.financialpost.com/news/economy/canada-has-a-30-chance-of-a-housing-bust-the-third-riskiest-market-in-g10-warns-goldman-sachs

“The Swedish and New Zealand housing markets are the most at risk of a correction among the so-called G-10 economies, according to Goldman Sachs, but Canada isn’t far behind.”

Combat roach
Guest
Combat roach

Nope, it can’t happen… Chinese will not back off until the last standing Canadian is priced out and their casino is safe and functional.

Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

Do you really believe your own nonsense?

southseacompany
Member
southseacompany

“Home Capital’s deposit balances decline further”, BNN

http://www.bnn.ca/home-capital-s-deposit-balances-decline-further-1.753602

“Canada’s biggest non-bank lender Home Capital Group Inc on Tuesday published data showing that its deposit balances were continuing to decline.”

southseacompany
Member
southseacompany

“Market bets against Home Capital have just plunged. Here’s why”, Globe & Mail

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/inside-the-market/short-position-still-looms-over-home-capital-stock-report-finds/article35009962/

“Home Capital’s troubles are serious enough that there is the chance that it could go out of business. That means anyone buying the shares these days should be willing to accept the risk of losing a great deal, or even all, of their capital invested in the stock.”

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

Any comment on this? You just seem to post stories some propaganda some fake news and some true.

Comment on them.

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

once much of the short covering concludes the stock will basically go bidless. i’ve seen this happen time and time again when novice traders misinterpret this and buy into the dead cat bounce only to get caught in the train car just as it heads over the cliff for the final time. no credible business will get into bed with HCG at this stage nor will anyone with half a brain park any cash in their HISA’s, so it is only a matter of time before this wound down and ripped to pieces in the chop shop

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

Vancouver Invaded by Chinese without single shot being fired. Ahaha ha.

World first.

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