What does a Green / NDP government mean for house prices in Vancouver BC?

The Green Party and NDP have announced an intention to form the government of BC and they have some different approaches to the real estate economy than the BC Liberals.

So what does the future look like to you? Will the new government implement some of their more dramatic policy changes and what does this mean for the Vancouver Housing Bubble and the wider BC real estate economy?

Oracle had the following wish list:

1) 30% FBT Province wide. Absolutely No Loopholes.

2) Tax 2nd homes of Citizens an annual property surcharge of 2% with rental offset. 3rd and more homes tax surcharge of 5%.

3) Tax homes of non taxpaying non residents 2%. Tax 2nd homes at 5%.

4) Limit foreign student at any institution to 15% maximum to ease rental crisis.

5) Inteoduce rental tax credit to out tax Evading Landords.

6) Pressure Federal government to limit 10 year tourist visas stays to a max of 3 months per year.

7) introduce extended mortgage amortization periods for those owners who will go underwater with the above changes.

Markoz points out this shift might not be painless for anyone:

Horgan and Weaver Have a Tough Job Ahead.

If they do all the things Eby talked about, real estate prices will definitely come down. The problem is, Krispy has painted our economy into a corner where it is very RE dependent. Lower prices mean lost jobs in construction and related industries. Also, as others have pointed out, lower tax revenues. There are many benefits to lower prices but they may not be self-evident to the 70% who own. Especially people who bought in the last 3 years.

The Krispy alternative, letting prices run amok until a 1 bedroom condo is $4 m, is not an alternative. Still, doing the right thing is going to be very painful and politically unpopular with many.

Dave wonders what’s next for Christy:

I think Clark should make a throne speech and outline what she wants to do for the next year of government and see what happens. Let the Greens and NDP shoot her vision down but at least people know what got voted down. I also think she should also try to split the NDP and Greens, not because it’s politically smart, but because voters should know what their MLAs stand for and support. Small chance she can pull something off, but not likely. I don’t see any ridings or obvious MLAs that the Liberals could split or steal.

Let us know your thoughts on the future of the BC economy and real estate prices in the comments below!

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southseacompany
Member
southseacompany

“IMF warns of ‘significant’ risks from Canada’s housing market”, Globe & Mail

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/imf-praises-infrastructure-bank-plan-flags-housing-market-concerns/article35160977/

“Ms. Lim’s staff statement also took issue with the foreign buyers tax approach introduced in British Columbia and Ontario that “discriminates against non-resident buyers.” The IMF states that non-resident activity is not the sole driver of housing prices and the provinces should replace the foreign-buyers taxes with more effective tax changes aimed at discouraging speculative activity.”

southseacompany
Member
southseacompany

“Why Investors Are Running Away From the Fastest-Growing G-7 Economy”, Bloomberg
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-05-31/why-investors-are-running-away-from-fastest-growing-g-7-economy

“Meanwhile, in a year when stocks are rising everywhere, Canada’s benchmark index is the second-worst-performer in the developed world after Israel. It’s a similar story in currency and bond markets.”

“Investors remain concerned about geopolitical risks such as U.S. trade protectionism, the outlook for oil prices and a housing market that some analysts say may be on the verge of a correction. “

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

B.C. is on the precipice of a marvellous drama, with high odds of everything blowing up soon
http://news.nationalpost.com/full-comment/colby-cosh-were-on-the-precipice-of-a-marvellous-drama-there-are-few-puzzles-as-difficult-as-the-one-b-c-now-presents

At certain times in Canada’s colonial history, the members of a newly elected legislature met and found themselves unable to elect a Speaker because parties or blocs were tied. In those cases, the Lieutenant-Governor dissolved the assembly and called an immediate do-over election.

Whistler or Bust?
Guest
Whistler or Bust?
Hyper-mega-Bull
Member
Hyper-mega-Bull

How Rachel Notley’s NDP tricked Albertans into not noticing how drastic its new labour bill really is

what a garbage headline.

Best place on meth
Guest
Best place on meth

All you Liberal lovers – shut the fuck up and get over it already.

You’re worse than Hillary supporters.

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

Watch the fake news pile up.

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

These assholes are really feeling it. Hopefully policy ramps up and we can gloat at these morons like they have at others the last 16 years.

Whistler or Bust?
Guest
Whistler or Bust?

Did either of you asshats read the article?

Union ass kissing Morons

Best place on meth
Guest
Best place on meth

Yeah, I read it, despite the incredibly anti-NDP first paragraph.

It didn’t get any better after that.

I don’t much care for unions but thanks for asking.

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

So how much equity you lose on your and parents real estate the last 48 hours?

Should it even matter since you bought a place to live in?

Why do you care if price goes down? Don’t tell me you don’t want others to own at affordable prices. If so, you are as worse as they come.

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

this article highlighting some of Lieutenant-Governor Judith Guichon’s recent comments (from May 26th) was released last Saturday…i agree with the author that all this seems a bit disturbing
http://www.straight.com/news/915966/martyn-brown-intercepting-bc-liberals-hail-christy-long-bomb

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

“Premier Christy Clark will form the government. And it’s quite likely that they will go in and start the session, and that a Throne Speech will be presented. And the Throne Speech, of course, is written by government to outline what they plan to do in that session. The Throne Speech might pass without anybody contesting it, and then a budget must be presented. That could perhaps be the more controversial act, would be the budget. The budget may contain things that make everybody happy. Perhaps we will have a new era. Perhaps everybody will work together to get the work done to run a great province. So it’s very hard to predict what will happen and I, like the rest of you, will be tuned in, to watch very carefully.”

Just me
Guest
Just me

Disturbing indeed. What is all that mumbo-jumbo about other parties working together to support Christy Clark? Does this woman not realize she is the arbiter and should keep an impartial profile?

Dave
Member
Martyn Brown has some long standing beef with Christy Clark. I don’t know what it is, but his opinions on the Liberals haven’t been very balanced. I wouldn’t worry about Guichon. If Clark fails in a throne speech, then she’ll give the NDP a shot at it. It’s pretty black and white. You’d need some type of Constitutional issue to come up. I actually think there are two things in the NDP / Green agreement that are questionable constitutionally. The first is their plan to fight the Federal government in court against Kinder Morgan. The Province knows full well the pipeline is a federal responsibility and the process of approval was well known and agreed upon early on. To challenge that decision is to undermine the very fabric of our Country and Constitution. The second is their proposed changes to… Read more »
bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

i seriously hope i am wrong about this but i suspect there might be more going on here than meets the eye given how much is at stake for the various monied interests. quite honestly, the RE industry here and all across Cda is too big to fail now, so you never know what might be possible. if i am indeed correct, krusty might get to whip the football out one last time but at the risk of doing so in front of an already skeptical public that would completely turn their backs on the whole corrupt organization and possibly lobby for her impeachment should all the stars suddenly and mysteriously align in her favor

(signing off until legislature recalled and more cards are flipped over)

Dave
Member

She hasn’t started to campaign yet and her only tweet is welcoming the Rock back to Vancouver to film his next movie… Skyscraper.

IMDB describes the movie as being set in China.

You can’t make this stuff up.

patriotz
Member

First, it’s the job of the courts to judge whether any provincial or federal act is constitutional. Certainly not the job of the L-G, and doubly so before any act is introduced in the first place.

Second, it’s perfectly clear that the BC government has the power to change the electoral system at will with no referendum. It’s happened twice before. Again, it’s no business whatsoever of the L-G.

Best place on meth
Guest
Best place on meth

The pipeline likely runs afoul of treaty obligations with First Nations.

The new BC government can tie up the Feds in court for many years.

Whistler or Bust?
Guest
Whistler or Bust?
Bad policy has played a role in Canada’s housing crisis KEVIN BRYAN, JOSHUA GOTTLIEB and JOSEPH STEINBERG 16:08 EST Wednesday, May 17, 2017 Kevin Bryan is an assistant professor of strategic management in the Rotman School of Management; Joshua Gottlieb is an assistant professor of economics in the Vancouver School of Economics; Joseph Steinberg is an assistant professor of economics at the University of Toronto. Popular discussions about Canada’s housing market focus on affordability. This is indeed a problem – home prices in Toronto and Vancouver have grown much faster than incomes. But, as the recent trouble at Home Capital Group has highlighted, the price boom in these regions poses dangers beyond affordability. First, some basic facts. Since 2010, nominal house prices have nearly doubled in both the Toronto and Vancouver metro areas, two regions that account for nearly half… Read more »
Just me
Guest
Just me

Look at prices changes in the past 2 days on myrealtycheck.ca
This is unprecedented both in magnitude and direction. In April and early May there were many price increases. They have virtually disappeared over the past week. Instead, price drops have become both large and prevalent. Even last August I did not see so many price drops. Unprecedented.

http://myrealtycheck.ca/

Screwed
Guest
Screwed

Almost all the areas were red in January. Now it’s a mix with greenish.

Just me
Guest
Just me

It got a lot redder since Mid May. A lot.
You can see the price changes in Vancouver proper by date of the chage. Look at what happened yesterday!

Screwed
Guest
Screwed

Nah don’t see much change. Just a glitch.

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

Prices down 5% just on psychology. Wait until policy changes close loopholes.

Just me
Guest
Just me

And Zolo shows the first significant dip in prices in over three weeks. This time it might be different.

Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

But wait, you said that the Toronto foreign buyers tax had driven money back to Vancouver?

Whistler or Bust?
Guest
Whistler or Bust?

Many posters and I may not agree on the politics but we can agree on one thing.

THIS MARKET IS TOAST

Dave
Member

I’m not convinced of that yet. It’s not what I’m seeing on the ground. The election seems to have had little effect.

Give it a couple weeks though.

Screwed
Guest
Screwed

You WISH

Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

Hasn’t it been almost a year since your last prediction to that effect?

paulb
Member

New
222
Price Change
53
Sold
187
TI:8806

https://www.instagram.com/clivestevepaul/

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

Trudeau can just go %{^# himself regarding the pipeline.

Why did we sell the tar sands to The Chinese whobthen want to transport it back to their motherland?

Let’s keep our oil and take it back from the Chinese companies. And jail the treasonists who sold it to them.

Best place on meth
Guest
Best place on meth

BC is going to war with Turdeau!

He may have to send in the misogynist RCMP to fight us.

Just me
Guest
Just me

Trudeau is going to lose this one. Granted Clark (that he wanted to be elected) gets kicked out.

Best place on meth
Guest
Best place on meth

May had the maximum possible business day possible making the monthly stats a bit misleading so I’m going with dailies instead.

Listings 269, up from 256 in April

Sales 184, down from 189 in April

Sell/list ratio 69%, down from 74% in April

Best place on meth
Guest
Best place on meth

Was anybody humming a superhero tune all day today?

I know I was!

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

Hahahahahahahah

Whistler or Bust?
Guest
Whistler or Bust?

I was (sadly)

Best place on meth
Guest
Best place on meth

Sadly, because your childhood hero was replaced by a communist thief who can’t even drive a car?

Whistler or Bust?
Guest
Whistler or Bust?

https://ca.yahoo.com/sports/news/jay-cutlers-chicago-house-sale-itll-give-sticker-shock-023313523.html

Yes a $4.75 Million for a true mansion 15 minutes from downtown that does give me sticker shock.

Another reminder as to how truly absurd Vancouver real estate has become.

Best place on meth
Guest
Best place on meth

The only reason a house like that only goes for $6 million CAD is because chinese money launderers don’t want to live in Chicago, because they HATE blacks.

For the same price in Vancouver you get this incredible, above average home.

https://www.realtor.ca/Residential/Single-Family/17685698/5788-HIGHBURY-STREET-Vancouver-British-Columbia-V6N1Z1

Guest
Guest
Guest

I am sorry I just set up a short strategy against Canada market until 2019 because Canada economy is shaken. It is time for all level gov and voters to pay for errors made in last 10 years. No lesson no grow up.