Friday Free-for-all! June 23rd 2017

It’s that time of the week again… Friday!

That means it’s time for another Friday free for all post, this is our regular end of the week news round up and open topic discussion thread for the weekend.

Here are a few recent links to kick off the chat:

only 63 million

bubble will burst

flip flopped

actual stats count

yes we banned that word

On a side note,  if all you want to do is complain about foreigners and bitch about people sharing actual stats and analysis you can find plenty of other places on the Internet to do it.  We’re going to start banning IP addresses for racist comments and trolling so count this as fair warning.  We apologize in advance if this hurts your tender racist feelings.

Have an excellent weekend!

Sort by:   newest | oldest | most voted
Peter W
Guest
Peter W

“The borrowing and spending binge by Canadian households, businesses and governments (all levels) continues unabated. Growing the debt in the economy significantly faster than the economy itself grows seems to have developed into a way of life in Canada.”

Canadian total (household, business, and all levels of government) debt numbers as of the end of March, 2017

http://owecanada.blogspot.ca/2017/06/canadian-total-household-business-and.html

SpacedOut
Guest
SpacedOut
Prices have been going up for a decade now. They’ll never come down. We all just need to get over our delusion that there’s any chance of BC Real Estate correcting and buy whatever you can afford. I mean, why pay $2,000/mth in rent on $1M property? All you’re doing is putting money in your landlords pocket. Just suck it up, get a loan that you’ll spend the rest of your life repaying, and buy the best POS you can afford. It’ll never be cheaper than it is today. If things go pear shaped, just sell it for more than you bought it for and you’re better off than when you started. You’d have to be an idiot not to buy if you can get approved for a mortgage. Like taking candy from a baby.
Doomcouver
Guest
Doomcouver

Yeah exactly, stop complaining and buy more tulips. What could go wrong?

YVR
Guest
YVR

” I mean, why pay $2,000/mth in rent on $1M property?”

Because paying $2000 per month is better than paying $5000 per month. Plus no risk of the inevitable capital loss.

MarKoz
Member
Active Member

I think Spaced Out is being sarcastic…

Owen
Member
Owen

It’s hard to tell these days.

yuppie
Guest
yuppie

That sucks … I’m paying $1400 for a $750,000 property … Clearly I’m getting ripped off.

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

Calgary real estate firm advertises in China but foreign investors not biting
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/calgary-real-estate-china-1.4173021

According to this realtor who clearly has no clue what is really going on…
“There are two types of Chinese investors. There’s the Chinese investor who buys a really big house here and moves his family here and the kids go to school and they commute. Right? And then there are the people investing in larger projects, really just the speculative type stuff,”

Best place on meth
Member
Best place on meth

Stop complaining about foreigners, you’re upsetting the moderator.

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

30 throne speech pledges by the B.C. Liberals that weren’t in their election platform
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/bc-platform-promises-throne-speech-1.4174203

YVR
Guest
YVR

You have to give the Liberal credit. They took the feedback of the voters. After winning a majority in 4 straight elections they won a minority this election. That was enough for them to make major adjustments to their policy. On the other hand you have the NDP which has lost 5 elections in a row and they keep the same outdated pro-union and anti-business policy. It is only due to the Green party they will be given any power at all. Within a year we will be back to a Liberal majority because the liberals are smart enough to adjust.

Abdul Lahazi
Guest
Abdul Lahazi

If the Libs ever get another majority then all these promises will be out the window and they will be back to their old ways of governing for the wealthy.

specialfx3000
Member
specialfx3000

Liberals took feedback from voters? Would they do this if the Greens did not side with the dippers? This is nothing but a desperate move.

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

no way she follows thru on much/all of this. only announced these measures to throw a wrench into greeNDP gameplan, ignite more tension between weaver and horgan, make some voters reconsider and most importantly lay the groundwork for Lt Gov to pull the plug on the whole clusterfuc# patchwork govt. not suggesting krusty wins a do-over election, but it buys her time to work over her opponents who wont have the luxury to raise money like she has been doing at torrid pace in recent weeks.

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

Do you feel proud of yourself if you really feel this way?

Canada was not built on views like yours.

squeak
Member
squeak

I think the only “feedback” they got was to say what the NDP said, to get back into power again and continue with the same old agenda. Adjust to keep serving the wealthy? The gap between the have and have nots has increased for decades now, not good for any country.
Real changes are needed and I do not trust the liberals to do this, they had their chance. Now step aside please.

Also, why this desperate game playing to not hand over the government, something (s) are brewing and scurrying into hiding behind the scenes. That is a blatant blaring flag. Care to explain with a honest answer CC? No? Well, I was not holding my breath.
Past behavior is a good indicator of future behavior.

Royce McC
Guest
Royce McC

Wait, so you think the NDP is bad with it’s policies, but the BC Liberals deserve credit for adopting wide swaths of the NDP/Green policy platform because it was more popular with voters?

Best place on meth
Member
Best place on meth

I give Krusty zero credit.

She’s a two faced sociopath trying anything to cling to power.

As for the NDP only having power because of the Greens, if there was no Green party the NDP would have a majority.

history
Guest
history

http://richardhughes.ca/cknws-jon-mccomb-calls-out-christy-clark-over-throne-speech-hypocrisy/#comments

Christy’s flip flop has a deeper meaning. Poloz and interest rates come to mind.

Owen
Member
Owen

Some argument about supply: https://twitter.com/udibc/status/877936046469763072 (note that the linked article gives context but not a lot of solid info, I’m more pointing to the discussion).

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

Enough with ‘supply’ BS!

Sebastien
Guest
Sebastien

This is what I’ve been saying for years. Ultra- greedy boomer homeowners go full blown nimibism when a high tower project goes in their neighbourhood. It has nothing to do with ” protecting the character of the area”. It also happens in the suburbs too.

Funkeymonkey
Member
Funkeymonkey

I don’t think towers are the answer. I think more townhouses and duplex

Owen
Member
Owen

I’m sure lots of homeowners genuinely don’t want their neighbourhood/city to change more so than they are worried about their pocket books, but this is still nimibism (I saw it myself in Windhoek). I even agree that high rises being marketed to Asia (at great expense, ~15% of the building cost) is part of the problem. But the flip side of too many luxury high rises is that low-rise condo buildings that could be built affordably and quickly are mostly not allowed in Vancouver.

Sebastien
Guest
Sebastien
Best place on meth
Member
Best place on meth

Try banning foreign ownership, with an exemption for NAFTA members.

Then introduce a hefty speculator tax.

Then ban shell companies and bare trusts from owning residential real estate.

If we still have a supply problem after that, then go ahead and build like crazy.

Owen
Member
Owen

The NDP won’t ban foreign ownership, but a 30% tax has got to be a decent deterrent. Do you (or others) expect their measures to burst the bubble? Depending on how you define foreigner, I’m skeptical that focusing only on them will solve the problem; there are too many locals that are true believers and too many immigrants coming every year.

history
Guest
history

a foreign tourist visits canada, buys RE, leaves it empty

x 1,000,000

maybe we should put curbs on leisure. You gonna service this class of clowns and their debt? im not

Sebastien
Guest
Sebastien
history
Guest
history

https://www.policyalternatives.ca/newsroom/news-releases/warning-signs-canada’s-skyrocketing-private-sector-debt-growing-faster-any

debt addicts in Canada… dont expect Me to help you service your borrowing for leisure spending.

Diadora
Guest
Diadora

China’s international real estate shopping spree is officially dead
http://www.businessinsider.com/chinas-international-real-estate-shopping-spree-is-officially-dead-2017-6

Time to go
Guest
Time to go

Wonder where this Chinese billionaire pays income taxes:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vT0Eb3A95XM

Works in her favor until she gets in trouble with the CCP. Then it’s time to use her Canadian citizenship card.

Best place on meth
Member
Best place on meth

Stop complaining about foreigners, you’re upsetting the moderator.

kabloona
Member
kabloona
C$ weakens as subdued inflation reduces rate hike chances https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/c-weakens-subdued-inflation-reduces-135530282.html “TORONTO (Reuters) – The Canadian dollar fell on Friday against its U.S. counterpart after weaker-than-expected domestic inflation data reduced the chances of an interest rate hike next month from the Bank of Canada. The annual inflation rate cooled to 1.3 percent in May, below forecasts for 1.5 percent, pushing it further away from the Bank of Canada’s 2 percent target as the cost of food fell and gasoline prices moderated, data from Statistics Canada showed. The central bank’s three measures of core inflation remained subdued. “It is going to be very difficult for the Bank (of Canada) to hike as soon as next month when you still haven’t carved out a bottom on inflation,” said Derek Holt, head of capital markets economics at Scotiabank. Chances of a hike in July… Read more »
Abdul Lahazi
Guest
Abdul Lahazi

The national inflation rate dropped to 1.3 per cent last month, from 1.6 per cent in April.

http://www.news1130.com/2017/06/23/gas-prices-across-country-cost-living-drops-bc/

Based on this, no BoC interest rate increase in July.

Owen
Member
Owen

You’re talking about July 2018 right?

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

Liars are reporting lowest Canadian inflation rate since 1999.

Who are these fucks kidding?

Just me
Guest
Just me

Obviously housing costs are not a big share of the consumption baskets used to measure inflation.
If one were to account for the extra housing costs properly, the inflation rate would be revised significantly up over the past 10 years.

Abdul Lahazi
Guest
Abdul Lahazi

BC annual allowed rent increase is 3.7% well above official inflation.

Best place on meth
Member
Best place on meth

Actual rent increases are at least double that.

patriotz
Member

“Obviously housing costs are not a big share of the consumption baskets used to measure inflation.”

In fact they are the biggest share of the consumption basket. However house prices per se are not part of the basket, because buying a house is not consuming it. Rents are up in Toronto and Vancouver, but they are down in Alberta, and not changing much elsewhere.

Abdul Lahazi
Guest
Abdul Lahazi

Don’t consume the land but do consume the building which is why houses need maintenance and those maintenance costs do increase over time.

patriotz
Member

Buying a house doesn’t consume the building, using it does. Maintenance costs for owner-occupiers are part of CPI.

Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already
Just me
Guest
Just me

The fact that some kind of rent equivalent is included in the basket is both unsurprising and inconclusive for the point I made. The question is what exactly is being imputed when computing the index changes over time.
One thing I have learned over the past 10 years is that a Van west side dwelling is has gone gone up in price by a factor of at least 1.8.
Annualized that and tell me what inflation rate you get back.

Owen
Member
Owen

I believe replacement land value is included as part of the inflation calculation. I don’t know how you figure inflation in that kind of situation though. The city is getting denser and the metro is getting bigger, so it stands to reason that land near downtown actually is getting more valuable, inflation aside. I think statscan might consider a detached home in Langley a legit replacement for a similar home that used to be built in West Van.

patriotz
Member

“I believe replacement land value is included ”

Land doesn’t have to be replaced because it doesn’t get consumed. It just gets traded between households, there’s no net expenditure.

The carrying costs of land are consumption and get included in CPI, whether as part of rent or mortgage interest and property taxes.

specuskeptic
Member

Number of empty homes in Vancouver hits record high
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/number-of-empty-homes-in-vancouver-hits-record-high-1.4175999

Not making any more land, blah bah blah…

Owen
Member
Owen

– It looks like there would be about 5,000 more rental units if it wasn’t for condo board rules. An extra layer of government makes an extra layer of NIMBYism. This is ridiculous, discriminatory and should be illegal.
– “Empty” is an exaggerated term in this case. If you want to think rationally about how many extra units could be put on the market, you need to be realistic in that every city has some “empty” units. There are 14,500 international students at UBC alone.
– I wonder if the empty homes tax is high enough to incentivize the occassional apartment occupants to rent out their units? We know it’s barely high enough to be profitable after the admin cost.

patriotz
Member

Condo boards aren’t keeping condos empty, it’s the owners who would rather keep condos empty than sell them. If owners want to rent out condos they can simply buy in a building that allows rentals.

Condo boards need the power to prohibit rentals to stop units from being rented to transients.

Owen
Member
Owen

No, they don’t need to prevent transients. Landlords don’t want to rent to people who can’t pay. They can require credit, employment, and past landlord reference checks to alleviate paranoia if needed. Anyone who can realistically afford the rent is not a transient.

Fomo
Guest
Fomo

Actually the empty home tax seems to be having some effect. Check out Craigslist for the increased listings. Quite a high number of large empty houses listed. Of course, asking rents are very high.

Abdul Lahazi
Guest
Abdul Lahazi

Reply to them with low counter offers.

Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

Why? He’d likely have to visit the property to have such an offer taken seriously. Sounds like a lot of effort to validate somebody else’s theories. So if you really care about the outcome of submitting lowball offers on high-end properties why not get off your last ass and do it yourself?

Owen
Member
Owen

I don’t know what’s normal but that does indeed seem like a lot of places for rent over $5000. If I could split a 5 bedroom mansion with 9+ roommates it starts getting pretty reasonable. And you can have a cat!

paulb
Member
Active Member

New
162
Price Change
52
Sold
184

TI:9346

http://www.clivestevepaul.com

history
Guest
history

deflation almost everywhere in Canada, except Victoria and Vancouver
http://statcan.gc.ca/tables-tableaux/sum-som/l01/cst01/cpis02a-eng.htm@

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

West Vancouver threatens to bulldoze new mansion
http://globalnews.ca/video/3553097/west-vancouver-threatens-to-bulldoze-new-mansion/

The District of West Vancouver is threatening to take a wrecking ball to a $5-million home after the homeowner failed to obtain proper permits.

Abdul Lahazi
Guest
Abdul Lahazi

I hope with the occupants inside… and throw in their cars for good measure.

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

the optics involved in pursuing this matter further would be terrible for our fabulous leaders. not that i wouldn’t want to see it, but it is highly unlikely this goes any further than issuing a fine or two (which the owner can obviously afford to pay and probably expected in the first place). i also know of a rmd farmhouse or two that should be bulldozed…

LS in Arbutus
Guest
LS in Arbutus

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2017-06-22/non-performing-loans-are-china-s-new-gold-rush-video

Oh the irony.. competition over buying non-performing Chinese loans is causing a bubble in the prices of distressed assets.

CNY 1.6 Trillion in Non-performing loans. 12 year high and a jump of 61% from 2 yrs earlier.

CNY 1.6 trillion = USD $234 billion.

Just me
Guest
Just me

Now, that is a sign of insanely loose monetary policy, if I ever saw one.
This gigantic credit binge will end in tears. Hopefully not for the prudents. But there is always a risk the governments will make the honest pay for the crooked’ mistakes (after all, this has been BC informal policy for years).

squeak
Member
squeak
That is one of the reasons I am contemplating fleeing BC, if not Canada. There is a reason for that I drive an old beater, a reason that I mostly buy either items (food) on sale or used , a reason I have picnics instead of restaurants, cook from scratch, there is a reason that I live in a small dwelling, a reason for that I don’t follow fashions, a reason for that I don’t drink or smoke. A reason for that I drive with outmost care, responsibly within the law, considering the wear/tear on a car and enormous costs to individuals and society should there be a car accident. There is a reason for all of above and more not mentioned yet. The reason: To be financially responsible. Should that be punished? Really? Any politician that think that I… Read more »
Abdul Lahazi
Guest
Abdul Lahazi

I like what that one analyst says where the western investors do their due diligence and set a price then the Azian “investors” (speculators) just add on a bit to outbid the others after the western investors have done all the work. Just like in Vancouver real estate, the azians have no clue and end up creating bubble problems for everyone involved.

history
Guest
history

An Asian in the presence of a Caucasian country instinctivily looks around at whats for sale and buys. This is a play on currency debt capacity. Solve gambling by grounding international flights, but we know that aint gonna happen.

Banking has gone full retard, moronic and needs help

history
Guest
history

http://www.international-economy.com/TIE_Sp17_DebtStraightjacketSymp.pdf

The World Has Been Fitted With Two Debt Straightjackets (Steve Keen)

Best place on meth
Member
Best place on meth
Best place on meth
Member
Best place on meth

$63 million mansion in Vancouver on 1 acre vs. $40 million mansion in San Francisco on 47 acres.

http://blog.sfgate.com/ontheblock/2017/06/23/infamous-de-guine-estate-finally-sells-at-dramatic-discount/

Again, ONE acre vs FORTY SEVEN acres.

Fomo
Guest
Fomo

Diff money laundering rules in the US…

Just me
Guest
Just me

Unlike Canada, in the US you don’t get most of your money back when you try to bring it in illegally.
Canadian laws (and enforcement) of money laundering are a mockery.
And politicians condone the mockery on the grounds that it is “good for the economy”.

patriotz
Member

It’s not in San Francisco, it’s in Hillsborough which is 17 miles to the south. One acre in SF would cost you plenty, indeed I couldn’t find anything for sale with a lot that big. This is a comparable location though:

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/224-Sea-Cliff-Ave-San-Francisco-CA-94121/15088697_zpid/?fullpage=true

Just me
Guest
Just me

Still a lot cheaper.

ostritch
Member
ostritch

From the man who once said SF prices were lower than Vancouver prices. Haw. Haw. Haw. Now all of a sudden, they are astronomical? Don’t you ever get tired of yourself?

Just me
Guest
Just me
Just me
Guest
Just me

Admin, I posted various links but they have been under moderation for a while. Any chance you can let them through. Nothing controversial.

Just me
Guest
Just me

Warren Buffett cannot soothe nerves over Canada’s housing market

Investor has lent money to a troubled mortgage lender but real estate worries persist

https://www.ft.com/content/eccb3d30-578a-11e7-9fed-c19e2700005f

history
Guest
history

http://www.mybudget360.com/inflation-nightmare-four-horsemen-of-inflation-wages-college-housing-healthcare/

this is an American perspective. in Canada substitute colleges and healthcare with financial loopholes for foreigners. They are that big. Our country is being ripped apart by asian debt pigging on the backs of caucasian social capital

Polozi Scheme
Guest
Polozi Scheme
Just me
Guest
Just me

Dear Pope, why do you block posts with perfectly legitimate links (from reputable sites)?
If it is a precaution, it should be fine tuned. It limits debate for no obvious reason.
Can you unblock the articles I linked to? Other shall i just post them in three separate links?
Thanks in advance.

wpDiscuz