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Friday Free-for-all! June 2nd 2017

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It’s the end of another beautiful work week and that means it’s time for another Friday free-for-all on VCI.

This is our regularly scheduled end of the week news round up and open topic discussion thread for the weekend, here are a few recent links to kick off the chat:

–What do millions in political donation buy?
–Bad policy role in housing crisis
–Drop in CMHC insurance
–Face it, your addicted to real estate
–Mortgage rules tighten
–The marvelous drama of BC
–Greens / NDP target money laundering
–Welcome to the bubble Toronto
–

So what are you seeing out there? Post your news links, thoughts and anecdotes in the comments below and have an excellent weekend!

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bullwhip29

Chinese mobile-payment apps launch in Vancouver, Toronto
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/british-columbia/chinese-mobile-payment-apps-launch-in-vancouver-toronto/article35200202/

A pair of widely used Chinese mobile-payment systems have launched in Vancouver and Toronto, allowing users to pay for purchases using their home currency while potentially avoiding foreign-exchange limits imposed by the Chinese government

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bullwhip29

B.C. politics in ‘uncharted territory’ as legislature poised to tussle over Speaker appointment
http://vancouversun.com/news/local-news/b-c-politics-in-uncharted-territory-as-legislature-poised-to-tussle-over-speaker-appointment

>>> well, well, well,,,it seems like this will be an issue after all

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Bag it and tag it

What a terrible system. Time for this ‘unwritten rule’ to be broken over and over again since it’s a garbage rule.

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southseacompany

“Domestic Investors Bought 1 In 5 Vancouver Homes”, Better Dwelling

https://betterdwelling.com/city/vancouver/domestic-investors-bought-1-in-5-vancouver-homes/

“Vancouver’s resale inventory is largely being sold to first time buyers. They were the largest single-segment of the survey, representing 32.2% of buyers over the past year. The second largest type of buyer was people moving into a similar type of property, which represented 18.9% of buyers. Surprisingly domestic investors came in third, accounting for 18.5% of transactions. Since we know you’re curious, foreign investors represented 2.3% of purchases. If that last number seems a little low, keep in mind that REBGV doesn’t involve any new construction.”

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Confucius

Oracle’s condition?

I vote he is Bipolar with ADHD.

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Best place on meth

The Biggest Real Estate Bubble Of All Time Just Did The Impossible http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-06-03/biggest-real-estate-bubble-all-time-just-did-impossible One month ago, we said that “the Vancouver housing bubble Is back, and it’s (almost) bigger than ever.” Fast forward to today, when we can scrap the almost part: according to the latest data from the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver, nearly a year after British Columbia implemented a 15% property tax targeting foreign buyers, in May the biggest real estate bubble of all time did the impossible and in a testament to the persistence of Chinese oligarchs, criminals, money launderers and pretty much anyone who is desperate to park their cash as far away as possible, after a modest drop following last summer’s tax the Vancouver housing bubble has bounced right back to new all time highs, as prices of detached, attached houses and apartment… Read more »

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Abdul Lahazi

It’s all about debt, with both domestic and foreign buyers.

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Shut It Down Already

Somebody should shout “traitor!” at home like a deranged hobo. That oughta do it.

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Oracle

Any predictions the USA will go to war with China?

And when they do, what are the repercussions for Canada? If they side with China, will the USA nuke Richmond and Vancouver or will the marines invade and take over?

Serious questions as Canada’s bureaucracy will have been infiltrated.

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Shut It Down Already

Out of all your sock puppets I definitely prefer Drunk Oracle.

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Hyper-mega-Bull

I think it will take many years time until there is armed conflict or even a standoff. I don’t think the US is ready at this point for the one sided victory they would want.

You’ll know it’s coming because they will start getting the public hyped up.

Canada will officially side with the US but the public won’t be with them especially in Vancouver. Chinese and sinophiles will obviously side with China and that is probably all the middle and upper class in Richmond, Burnaby, and Vancouver

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Ulsterman

Last week my chatty dental hygienist confidently told me that “houses double every 10 years. You can’t go wrong with land.” It will be interesting to see if she’s right or not in 2027. She and her husband bought a three bed condo near Tinsletown in 2009, so who am i to argue with her real estate instincts?

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Oracle

Sadly, it will be true for detached. The Feds have our immigration taps open at record levels. And no< immigrants don't want to live in condos or townhouses.

Best chance is a correction near term if Greens get in, then buy before upward pressures resume.

Also, start thinking how to exploit loopholes. Asians do. If you don't, you will be left in dust or out on the streets. Your survival at stake.

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YVR

“houses double every 10 years”

It only works that way when mortgage rates are cut in half every 10 years. The opposite happens when mortgage rates double over 10 years. Nobody knows for sure where mortgage rates will be in 10 years but the chance of them cutting in half are close to zero but the chance of them doubling are pretty good.

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Oracle

Cutting rates in half don’t mean your mortgage payments get cut in half.

Nice try to deflect HAM issue.

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Owen

According to what I’ve seen on Realtor.ca, the median incomes in most neighbourhoods would not even come close to being able to afford real estate there now (assuming <20% down). Not just in Van/Richmond, even condos in Coquitlam. "HAM" (Highly-affluent mainlanders?) aside, an unusually high number of residents already own their own homes. Wouldn't it take a lot higher salaries or a LOT more foreign money to push prices much higher over time? Maybe detached homes can go up forever based on speculation, but condos just seem to be detached from economic reality at this point. Also, there's a record number of condos (and homes) under construction, could keep building until completions finally spike in early 2018. Fed Reserve is raising rates and BoC will only hold off so long unless there's a recession, especially once all the infrastructure spending… Read more »

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Abdul Lahazi

From this point I can’t see prices doubling in 10 years not after the run up we’ve had. And where we are know is solely because of ZIRP and massive QE over the last few years. I do think we’ll see more normalized interest rates over the next five years so that wont bode well for real estate.

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Shut It Down Already

So not foreign buyers then? Jolly good.

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Shut It Down Already

She’ll probably remortgage to buy another if she’s so confident of that 7%pa increase.

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Sebastien

Drug Money Fire Sale? :
10160 River Drive, Richmond
Feb 23:$1,688,000
May 16: $1,099,000
Change: – 589,000 -35%
Assessment: $1,208,400

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squeak

Still way too much for what hard working tax paying Canadians can afford.

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Shut It Down Already

But they’ll pay it anyway because, hey, real estate always goes up!

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Oracle

Dumbass Sebastien doesnt realize this is an overseas transaction. Or maybe he is HAM and does.

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Shut It Down Already

Is every price drop one of your imagined fraudulent transactions? Or just the ones Sebastien posts?

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Sebastien

6438 Chelmsford Street, Richmond:
Nov 29:$2,888,000
May 31: $2,295,000
Change: – 593,000 -21%
Assessement: $2,316,000

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Just me

We are clearly in a game of whack-a-mole.
The introduction of Ontario’s tax changes (especially the FBT) has sent some of the “investors” back to BC. It won’t last long because the flow is likely to be disrupted by political uncertainty: the “investors” in question know and expect the NDP/GReens to put in place stricter controls on money flows and money-parking.

However, it is quite clear that these people respond to legislation quite strongly, and will move to different markets depending on tax incentives.

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Best place on meth

Whack-a-locust™.

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Abdul Lahazi

Toronto mother says son with service dog denied entry to 2 restaurants in a row:
http://globalnews.ca/news/3500034/toronto-mother-says-son-with-service-dog-denied-entry-to-2-restaurants-in-a-row/

They will eat dogs but not allow dogs in to eat.

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Best place on meth

Shut them down.

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Oracle

Deport them.

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Just me

As more people are willing to move countries for opportunity and stability, anti-immigration policies and tightened borders are prompting a rise in ‘citizenship for sale’.

http://www.bbc.com/capital/story/20170530-why-citizenship-is-now-a-commodity

Just this month an FBI Investigation uncovered a $50 million visa fraud operation involving Chinese investors in the EB-5 programme. And in April, the Securities and Exchange Commission brought charges against a man in Idaho who they say spent Chinese investor’s money on new homes, cars and a zip line for himself rather than the real estate projects it was meant for.

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Combat roach

Why all these shit where Norwegians are behind they say Chinese?

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Just me

Uff bene lived in BC he would vote for Kruelty Clark.

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Oracle

I was hoping for a 20% decline in prices via talk by the NDP/Greens.

Not happening. Better get vocal about it or else never gonna happen.

Don’t feel like lying an extra $200K for a SFD.

$700K in the valley was hoping for. But at $900K to $1 million seems a bit too rich.

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dyugle

First time buyer interest free loan could be a thing of the past once the NDP/Green take power. Better buy before it is gone is the current mentality.

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YVR

David Eby said he was going to expand the program in his recent interview with Steve Saretsky. That and model housing after Hong Kong where you have 50% social housing and 50% for the wealthy.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7yRczBxZBhs

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Best place on meth

50% public housing would be fantastic.

People could actually rent a decent, affordable and reasonably sized apartment or townhouse without having to deal with shady, amateur landlords and their various scams like renovictions and booting out tenants because “inlaws” will be moving in.

Imagine the stability in a family’s life.

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YVR

“50% public housing would be fantastic.”

LOL who pays for public housing? You do. Do the math on how much that would cost to make the province 50% public housing. It cost the government the same amount to build housing than a private company or citizen. Obviously it is not a realistic proposal like most NDP policy.

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Best place on meth

You know who should have been paying for this all along?

If Krusty had been doing her job and tapping the vast amount of money circulating through out the real estate market then taxes on speculators, flippers, pre-sale assigners and foreign buyers would have raised billions by now.

Public housing is the solution to our sick, ownership obsessed society.

https://thetyee.ca/News/2017/05/17/Imagine-Vancouver-Quality-Housing/

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Shut It Down Already

I’m honestly not surprised you want others to pay your way.

Probably should have tried harder in school?

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Just me

Go sell a condo or two.

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Oracle

You know you’re doing HAM a disservice by constantly posting. More people gone abe against HAM as time goes on….

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patriotz

The people who want others to pay their way are the speculators who are making gains from producing absolutely nothing. Who is paying for these gains – everyone else.

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Shut It Down Already

Incorrect. The people paying a single speculator are not “everybody else” but the people who willingly elect to participate in their transactions.

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patriotz

“but the people who willingly elect to participate in their transactions.”

Of course they are paying more than someone who doesn’t buy. But everybody pays when the tax system subsidizes speculators through tax breaks and non-enforcement. As well, renters pay more because speculation results in artificial shortages of rental accommodation.

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Shut It Down Already

Scraping the barrel, I see.

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YVR

It would take $500 billion to build what Eby is talking about. Plus by acquiring the land and taking on the construction resources it would send RE prices higher. Combine this with the free bridge tolls. free MSP, free child care, etc. Laughable people fall for this stuff. You can’t cut revenue and on one side by eliminating all user fees then increase spending on the other by a half a trillion. These are fairy tale election promises.

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paulb

New
181
Price Change
39
Sold
200
TI:8688

http://www.clivestevepaul.com

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Oracle

Market knows NDP/Greens going to look other way.

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Brian Ripley

I have my Vancouver Housing Charts up now:
http://www.chpc.biz/vancouver-housing.html

The speculative fury is wild. The free 5 year provincial money has lit the fuse.
That van down by the river is looking better every day.

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Oracle

What lit the fuse is inaction by NDP/Greens.

A peep about housing. And then all about coop housing.

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BubbleTea

Domestic Investors Bought 1 In 5 Vancouver Homes
https://betterdwelling.com/city/vancouver/domestic-investors-bought-1-in-5-vancouver-homes/

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Doomcouver

A fairly significant portion of “domestic” investors is likely using foreign funds to do the “investing”. We really need a tax on foreign funds rather than a tax of foreign investors, otherwise they’re just finding ways around the tax.

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patriotz

In effect this is what the NDP is proposing, by imposing a 2% annual penalty tax on properties owned by persons or entities not paying local income tax.

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Doomcouver

Yes using income tax credits to avoid the tax is a good way to police this. It will efficiently ensnare people not declaring their global income.

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Oracle

What I’m hearing is that it’ll be proposed in 2018.

They not gonna do anything. Hearing many NDP MLAs relatives homebuilders.

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Oracle

Good luck.

In a gloabilized world, get feet in 2 countries. 1 with no computer tax connections with Canada.

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Abdul Lahazi

US employers add modest 138K jobs; rate dips to 4.3 per cent.
Condos, townhomes hottest sellers in Metro Vancouver: real estate board.
Canada’s trade surplus with U.S. hits highest level in three years.

and yet interest rates remain stubbornly low, with no end to low rates in sight.

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Oracle

Low rates for at least 5 years. USA rates gonna top out within 24 months. Then loosening cycle.

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KickThemOut

Everyone please remind your Chinese colleagues that June 4 Memorial is THIS SUNDAY! Ask them to attend! If they say, ask them why not? Why are they against democracy and human rights? Why do they not care about the tens of thousands students shot & crush on that day?

As for BPOM & Combat Roach, f off you f*ing hypocrites. You sick fucks don’t give a shit about freedom and democracy, just pretending to be just so you can feel better about your pathetic lives. What can you expect from lazy bums who can’t even bother to show up to rallies about high housing costs when you are the biggest complainers about high housing costs.

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Hyper-mega-Bull

they don’t attend because the communist party can shut off their undeclared foreign income.

Many Chinese-Canadians fear criticizing China about Tiananmen Square

“Lots of Chinese-Canadians have businesses in China and they don’t want to provoke China’s national security agents. So most Chinese people in Canada think it’s best to not talk politics.”

http://vancouversun.com/news/staff-blogs/chinese-canadians-fear-criticizing-china-about-tiananmen-square

the threat of cutting off their undeclared foreign income keeps them loyal to the party.

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KickThemOut

They are in Canada. Are you saying Canada let Chinese spies into the country willy nilly?? And we are asking them to attend memorial, not speak out against Chinese government.

Last, they are in Canada! Gosh! This is Canada, not some 3rd world country that’s going to cave to China. If they have dirty money, they have to make a choice, stay here for our values, or go back home for their dirty money. They can’t have it both ways.

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Best place on meth

Space, it’s 6:00 pm.

Time to go wok your dog.

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Abdul Lahazi

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KsYOZdtzF3w

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Oracle

Is this post indicative of Chinese attitudes in their adopted land? If so, what will happen once the Chinese have majority in metro vancouver?

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Oracle

Market is booming.

Yet NDP and Greens refuse to talk down market.

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KickThemOut

Yeah, government talking down the markets always works! Sheesh…

btw, when are your cousins all coming? And how that new house you are building coming along? Or did you torch it?

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Oracle

Why don’t you and your family go back to China?

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KickThemOut

That’s kind hard to do for a Canadian family that’s been here for a few generations.

Why don’t you go back to India btw?

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Best place on meth

Your family has been here for generations and you STILL feel the need to forcefully defend that shithole as if it’s your native country?

Something is really wrong with you.

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Shut It Down Already

He’s not from India. He’s pretending.

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sufganiyah

May real estate stats for the past 5 years: https://www.reddit.com/r/vancouver/comments/6evkav/may_real_estate_stats_for_the_past_5_years/

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Just me

Loved this comment to the stats:When things settle, let us not forget the Politicians who’s policies and lack of policies helped get us here.

Christy Clark denied there was a problem. In hindsight were the 0% loans a good idea?

Federal Conservatives under Harper denied there was a problem.

Gregor Robertson – Hows he doing with density? Are we still racist to worry about international speculators?

Trudeau – Cranking up immigration, filling already record low vacancy cities still sound like a good idea?

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Doomcouver

Relatively short terms of elected officials results in no one wanting to make politically unpopular decisions that happen to be for the greater good of the country. If I was a politician primarily concerned with getting re-elected there’s no way I’d want to pop the housing bubble. We have a 70% ownership rate so you’d be pissing off over 2/3 of the electorate.

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patriotz

“In hindsight were the 0% loans a good idea?”

Hindsight? At the time they were introduced many objective experts recognized that they were an attempt to prop up prices.

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southseacompany

“NDP-Greens seek ways to cool British Columbia’s housing market”, Globe & Mail

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/british-columbia/ndp-greens-seek-ways-to-cool-british-columbias-housing-market/article35185394/

“An NDP government supported by the Greens would act quickly to cool British Columbia’s hot real estate market by creating more affordable housing and cracking down on speculators and tax evaders, the parties say.”

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Oracle

Any comment on the article? Otherwise you just look like a propaganda retweeting tool.

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Doomcouver

Unfortunately for homeowners David Eby seems like the kind of person that will stand on principle on the housing issue. If he does the bubble is toast.

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YVR

“act quickly to cool British Columbia’s hot real estate market by creating more affordable housing ”

This is so NDP. First who pays for this “affordable housing”? Just another word for government subsidized housing where a few lucky people get subsidized on their rent by tax payers. Solves nothing. Second it will take 5 years before the first unit is ready if they started today. The NDP plan is building housing projects. Who wants that?

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Hyper-mega-Bull

Exclusive: California to discuss linking carbon market with China

https://www.yahoo.com/news/exclusive-california-discuss-linking-carbon-market-china-005114888.html

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Hyper-mega-Bull

no one wants to talk about stats?

east van detached up 9.6% versus last year.

van west detached up 9.3% versus last year

burnaby south detached up 9.4% versus last year.

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Abdul Lahazi

All bogus numbers.

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Hyper-mega-Bull

where they also bogus when they should price declines, and low sales?

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Abdul Lahazi

Based on MLS HPI :
Burnaby detached down 1.5% over last 6 months.
Van east down 2.8% over last 6 months.
Van west down 2.1% over last 6 months.

it all depends on your viewpoint.

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Hyper-mega-Bull

are the stats telling you that the housing market is weak?

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Shut It Down Already

Fake news, you say? Shocking.

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Yellow Beaver

Source?

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Hyper-mega-Bull

REBGV hpi

http://www.rebgv.org/home-price-index

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KickThemOut

I guess after a decade of disappointments, the bears have learned to be numb and ignore all data that goes against their bias, while any evidences, however imaginary, that confirms their bias are cherished and celebrated with great fanfare.

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Oracle

All the more season to institute a 30% FBT with zero loopholes. And tax non-residents that already bought.

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Shut It Down Already

Don’t you get it yet? It’s not the foreigners who are responsible. That tax was always a political move to appease the Brawndo-drinking fuckwits like BPOM. A 1000% tax wouldn’t bring this market down.

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Egad

If it’s meaningless then why do you always complain about the fbt?

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Best place on meth

Because he’s a fucking moron and traitor like Poloz.

“I could raise interest rates by 5% and it would have no effect on the real estate market”.

Clowns, nothing but clowns.

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Shut It Down Already

That’s why I’ve been right and you’ve been wrong for 10 years?

Twat.

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Shut It Down Already

Because it’s ineffective, dumbass? Focus on the 90%, not the 10% if you truly want lower prices.

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