Business is ready for a rate hike

Lots of key indicators are telling the Bank of Canada that it’s time for an interest rate hike.

After the survey’s release, the chance of a July rate hike rose to 84 per cent from about 70 per cent, according to Bloomberg. Nine of 16 economists polled by Bloomberg now expect the central bank to raise rates to 0.75 per cent in July from the current 0.5 per cent.

The survey is one of the key pieces of information that Mr. Poloz and his central bank colleagues use to set monetary policy.

It was conducted between early May and early June, just before Mr. Poloz and his deputies started publicly saying the economy has turned the corner from the devastating oil price collapse that began in 2014.

Read the full article here.

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Just me
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Just me

China Rewrites Rulebook on Capital Flows After Crisis Lessons

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-07-06/china-rewrites-rulebook-on-capital-flows-after-crisis-lessons

‘Asymmetric’ capital opening encourages inflows, not outflows
Approach will probably continue in coming years, Nomura says

Bestplaceonearth
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Bestplaceonearth

You people are always scared of chicken shit.

southseacompany
Member
southseacompany

“Freddie Mac: Interest rates increase in U.S. and across the globe”, HousingWire

https://www.housingwire.com/articles/40612-freddie-mac-interest-rates-increase-in-us-and-across-the-globe

““Global interest rates turned up sharply over the last week,” Freddie Mac Chief Economist Sean Becketti said. “The 10-year Treasury yield was no exception, increasing 10 basis points in a holiday-shortened week.””

southseacompany
Member
southseacompany

“Brace yourself – a perfect storm is brewing in the housing market”, Globe & Mail

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/personal-finance/household-finances/brace-yourself-a-perfect-storm-is-brewing-in-the-housing-market/article35579591/

“The housing market has repeatedly defied expectations despite everything the government has thrown at it. And market predictors are wrong half the time. So it’s almost foolish to call a top with confidence.”

“But I will say this: Please don’t feel rushed to buy. Any short-term spurt in demand could easily fizzle as sellers start to realize what’s happening. And while we’re at it, can we shelve that overused acronym FOMO (fear of missing out)? There’s now far less risk of waiting for your dream home. In fact, you may very well find it “on sale” this fall.”

patriotz
Member

““The housing market has repeatedly defied expectations despite everything the government has thrown at it.”

Yet another writer who can’t or won’t acknowledge that governments are tying to keep RE prices up, not bring them down. BC’s soon-to-be former premier has said so explicitly, but the actions of other provincial and federal politicians show their intent is the same.

bullwhip29
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bullwhip29

OSFI tightens rules on uninsured mortgages
http://business.financialpost.com/personal-finance/mortgages-real-estate/osfi-tightens-rules-on-uninsured-mortgages/wcm/f54632d5-54e1-4139-b2b3-bf9ad058f401

OSFI proposals would require stress tests to qualify for all uninsured mortgages, and would make the qualifying rate for them the contract rate plus two per cent

YVR
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YVR

Your income must qualify at 2% above the posted rate? What happens when you have no declared income but lots of cash for a down payment? Could be bad news for HAM.

Diadora
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Diadora

Vancouver’s Mayor Gregor Robertson splits with pop star Wanting Qu, whose mother faces possible death penalty in China.
http://www.scmp.com/news/world/united-states-canada/article/2101641/vancouvers-mayor-gregor-robertson-splits-pop-star?utm_source=t.co&utm_medium=referral
Beijing will not be happy.

YVR
Guest
YVR

Gregor got dumped. How sad. He may have time to be mayor now. Too bad it cost him half his net worth in a divorce. He probably thought he would get his hands on some of that $69 million that is missing. Guess not. Hopefully Rennie is ready to pay to play. Now Meggs is out Gregor gets the full cut.

Best place on meth
Member
Best place on meth

Mayor Qu has now reverted back to his maiden name, Mayor Robertson.

Well, that’s one less politician entangled with scummy mainland chinese.

Turdeau, could you please follow suit you fucking traitor?

BubbleTea
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BubbleTea

SUN: A large Chinese real estate website claims Chinese investors at home and abroad spent over US$100 billion on overseas property investments in 2016.
http://vancouversun.com/business/local-business/canada-a-top-destination-for-property-investments-by-mainland-chinese-buyers-report

Joe Condo
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Joe Condo

Forbes reports that commercial/residential RE investment from China hit a record time high of $33 billion in 2016, according to JLL Global Capital Flows.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/ellensheng/2017/01/31/chinese-investment-in-overseas-real-estate-hit-record-high-in-2016/#2dac7dd67971

$33 B world wide is not a large figure. For comparison Metro Van’s sales totalled in the $30-40 B range last few years. Total US sales were $430 B in 2014

https://www.statista.com/statistics/245103/real-estate-capital-flows/

southseacompany
Member
southseacompany

“Fed ready to begin unwinding stimulus ‘within months’”, Financial Times

https://www.ft.com/content/8bd98766-619e-11e7-91a7-502f7ee26895?mhq5j=e1

“US Federal Reserve policymakers are ready to press ahead with the unwinding of its crisis-era economic stimulus programme within months, as they gear up to shrink the central bank’s swollen balance sheet in spite of a spate of weak inflation readings.”

bullwhip29
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bullwhip29

RBC hikes fixed-term mortgate rates
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/personal-finance/household-finances/rbc-hikes-fixed-term-mortgate-rates/article35577001/

Royal Bank of Canada has hiked rates on its fixed-term mortgages amid rising bond yields and widespread anticipation that the country’s central bank will raise its benchmark interest rate next week.

RBC, which is Canada’s second-biggest bank by assets, boosted its posted rates for two-year, three-year and five-year fixed rate mortgages by 20 basis points each

Combat roach
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Combat roach

Why is it surprise? It was expected, a surprise would be if Chinese stronghold Vancouver would fell.

http://www.ctvnews.ca/business/fall-in-home-toronto-home-prices-a-big-surprise-says-broker-1.3491218

Oracle
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Oracle

Apparently a different sales mix is part of the lower ‘average’ price.

I’m betting it starts going up again. Too much foreign money and immigration. Look to Calgary and buy multiple properties there. As soon as foreign money comes there, make a million!

Shut It Down Already
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Shut It Down Already

If the market doesn’t go up again will you finally put this nonsense to bed?

Best place on meth
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Best place on meth

Toronto’s market turned south at the exact time the foreign buyers tax was enacted.

How can that be!!!

Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

And that was the only change eh?

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

OSFI proposes new stress tests for uninsured mortgages
http://www.osfi-bsif.gc.ca/Eng/osfi-bsif/med/Pages/B20_dft_nr.aspx

space889
Member
space889

BPOM philosophy:
1 – Nuking China and killing 1 billion+ people there – A-OK because they paid ridiculous prices for our houses and condos. If we can’t nuke them, killing or beating them is a fine substitute, but I’m too lazy to do it.

2 – Chinese people get fed up with Muslim minority child thieves from criminal gangs who keep stealing and police wouldn’t do anything about it? Oh the horror!!! Those barbarians! They can’t hit a young kid, even if that kid steals from them every day, and maybe even bully and beat their own kids!! No, no, no! Bad Chinese!

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

this sums up your issues perfectly,,,
http://www.ctvnews.ca/lifestyle/educated-women-freezing-eggs-due-to-shortage-of-eligible-men-study-1.3491784

>>> and heck you thought you could post some witty and insightful bs on your PoF profile (not to mention vreaa) and women would just fall in your lap. not to worry, there is hope though…even for you
http://www.cbc.ca/news/technology/talk-about-sex-robots-1.4191241

Best place on meth
Member
Best place on meth

It’s even worse in china, there are no “men” there.

Hyper-mega-Bull
Member
Hyper-mega-Bull

“They can’t hit a young kid…”

is this the video your talking about?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=woISd6qMoIA

i can’t even watch it. hell i can’t even listen to it.

it’s unbelievably horrific and cruel. why would you try to justify it?

Hyper-mega-Bull
Member
Hyper-mega-Bull

Illegal Chinese “ride sharing” app has been operating in Vancouver for months

http://bc.ctvnews.ca/mobile/uber-style-services-already-operating-illegally-in-metro-vancouver-1.3490777

KickThemOut
Member
KickThemOut

I thought people on here supports Uber?!

Combat roach
Guest
Combat roach

Uber and TAX, not fucking thieves and fraudsters.

KickThemOut
Member
KickThemOut

Uber – Book a ride on a non-taxi using cellphone, started by non-Chinese = good, innovators, market disruptors, bringing 21st century technology to an old industry, democratize taxi industry, blah, blah, blah

Chinese Ride Sharing App – thieves and fraudsters.

No wonder you people are so pathetic and losers. With attitude like this, even a 75% housing crash and the mystical 7 figure stock portfolio isn’t going to help you.

patriotz
Member

Uber is run by a bunch of psychopaths. It’s so bad that other tech companies have special screening before they will hire former Uber employees. Their morals are essentially the same as the CCP.

Hyper-mega-Bull
Member
Hyper-mega-Bull

the illegal ride sharing app is not uber so why the dumb question/comment?!

KickThemOut
Member
KickThemOut

What’s the diff? They both let you book a ride on a non-taxi car using a cellphone.

Hyper-mega-Bull
Member
Hyper-mega-Bull

you don’t understand the difference between breaking the law and following it?

Best place on meth
Member
Best place on meth

He’s from china.

bullwhip29
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bullwhip29
Abdul Lahazi
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Abdul Lahazi

Ferrari Fridays:

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/ferrari-fridays-stories-from-a-north-shore-vehicle-impound-1.4192117

Just a few weeks ago, the company towed another Ferrari owned by a student, which had been impounded for excessive speeding.
“He was a young kid,”, and when he came to get his Ferrari, “he showed up with a Lamborghini with a friend to pick it up.”

Kid must be of Norwegian origin…

Abdul Lahazi
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Abdul Lahazi

Excuse the double post.

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

you could arguably post this four times and still get away with it…

Just me
Guest
Just me

‘Ferrari Fridays’: tales of excessive speed from a North Shore impound lot

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/ferrari-fridays-stories-from-a-north-shore-vehicle-impound-1.4192117

Fines not a deterrent

For many of these high-end vehicle owners, a fine of a few hundred dollars isn’t enough to deter them from excessive speeding, Martin said.

“When you consider a $400 fine for a gentleman that drives a Ferrari and has a Lamborghini as a back-up vehicle, the fee is quite miniscule in comparison to the cost of the cars,” said Martin.

Martin said that if the fines don’t deter drivers from speeding, they should at least think about the risks.

“If you’ve been on the other side where you see what the carnage is once it hits something, you’ll understand pretty quickly that those speeds are very unacceptable,” he said.

These are the kids of Chinese millionaires. Our conomy needs them, right?

Combat roach
Guest
Combat roach

They are pillars of local society, true role models with all impeccable attributes. Vancouver couldn’t get better citizens and contributors.

http://globalnews.ca/news/3163921/rich-shaughnessy-homeowners-guilty-of-not-shoveling-their-snow/

Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

Snow in July? Amazing!

Best place on meth
Member
Best place on meth

““When you consider a $400 fine for a gentleman that drives a Ferrari ”

Gentleman? What an odd thing to call a locust.

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

http://themainlander.com/2017/06/29/newplayerssamegame/

New info saying NDP will do nothing about housing.

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

to put it simply, stephen poloz (and other central bankers) should have tightened a long time ago. it is looking more and more like the walls of this gigantic house of cards are finally beginning to cave in and the powers that be are stuck with little dry powder to deploy should another severe economic downturn take shape. as christy clark just found it, everything is hunky dory when the wind is blowing in the right direction and every card turned up is an ace. that is, until it isn’t anymore and whatever measures one might have haphazardly dreamt up in the 11th hour come too little, too late.

Doomcouver
Member
Doomcouver

I tend to agree with the argument that interest rates were left too low for too long. Central bankers don’t seem to care that using counter-cyclical monetary policy for too long starts to net diminishing returns, and distortions that you really don’t want in the economy will start to get completely out of control. They will argue that interest rate policy is too blunt a tool to control inflated housing prices, however the federal government has failed to enact any meaningful policy to stem the tide of what sustained low rates do to the price of residential real estate. Because of this, the central bank should have used their “blunt tool” to pop the housing bubble before it got large enough to take down our entire economy. At this point, the bubble is beyond huge however. It’s pretty much as… Read more »

kabloona
Member
kabloona

In case it hasn’t been posted already…. 😉 http://vancouversun.com/business/local-business/canada-a-top-destination-for-property-investments-by-mainland-chinese-buyers-report “Canada a top destination for property investments by mainland Chinese buyers: report Joanne Lee-Young A large Chinese real estate website claims Chinese investors at home and abroad spent over US$100 billion on overseas property investments in 2016. This is a 25 per cent increase over Juwai.com’s 2015 estimate of US$80 billion. The website named Canada as one of five top destinations for this record amount of money, after the U.S., Australia and Hong Kong…. …Local critics and some in the real estate industry say keeping track of the number of foreign buyers like this doesn’t allow for understanding the amount of overseas money flowing into Canadian markets because purchases are being made with offshore trusts, shell companies and the use on land titles of proxy names to obscure the identity of… Read more »

Just me
Guest
Just me

We have been saying this for years on this blog. Authorities need to stop the illicit money flows.
Checking the passports is not sufficient.
We are selling off the city to millionaire Chinese migrants.

ostritch
Member
ostritch

If Juwai is right then there is absolutely nothing any bureaucrat in any country can do about it. 100 Billion cannot be stopped. You must invest up to your comfort level or get left behind. End of story.

patriotz
Member

” there is absolutely nothing ”

There’s plenty that can be done and it’s simplicity itself. Change the tax laws to make it unattractive to pakt money in RE. Whey isn’t it done? Because the locals park money in RE, of course.

Doomcouver
Member
Doomcouver

The NDP have promised to remove the loopholes many foreign buyers are using to avoid putting their name on the titles of these homes they’re buying. If they actually do it, it may become unpopular for foreigners to buy homes just to park cash. One can only hope that politicians live up to their election promises.

ostritch
Member
ostritch
southseacompany
Member
southseacompany

“Vancouver home sales fall 11.5% in June”, BNN

http://www.bnn.ca/vancouver-home-sales-fall-11-5-in-june-1.797098

“Figures released Wednesday by the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver showed an 11.5 per cent drop in the market last month compared with the over-heated market in June last year.”

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

Prices?

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

ave detached prices retreated. imho the top is in for the foreseeable future. not suggesting a major wipeout, but Vanc RE holdings likely dead money as listings increase and buyers pull in their horns for a variety of reasons.
http://www.rebgv.org/sites/default/files/REBGV-Stats-Pkg-June-2017.pdf

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

Not really.

townhouse prices in the valley headed towards $700K i kid you not.

Lower end pushing up. Foreign money buying all presales etc.

southseacompany
Member
southseacompany

“Vancouver Real Estate Prices Rise Over $1,000/Day In June”, Better Dwelling

https://betterdwelling.com/city/vancouver/vancouver-real-estate-prices-rise-over-1000day-in-june/

southseacompany
Member
southseacompany

“Ontario economy too dependent on housing ‘bubble,’ new study warns” Financial Post

http://business.financialpost.com/news/ontario-economy-too-dependent-on-housing-bubble-new-study-warns/wcm/7baf7302-0236-4f53-a002-bc6b4be7169d

“The Fraser Institute report warns that with interest rates expected to increase, Toronto’s housing sector could collapse, leading to serious economic disruption”

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

Not with immigration at record levels. Think about that.

At record levels

Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

It’s not at record levels. There were way more arrivals in absolute terms during the early 1900s, and that’s even higher when expressed as a percentage of the population. Don’t let facts get in the way of your assertions, though.

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

In the 1900’s they spread out across Canada. Try to keep up son.

Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

Nobody can keep up when the goalposts keep moving.

Just me
Guest
Just me

In the early 1900s we were not importing millionaire migrants.
That makes a massive difference.

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

exactly. today it is a full blown industry that has become deeply entwined with other complementary businesses ranging from finance, banking, real estate, education, health care etc. and are all operating with a common mandate. lower to middle class locals have effectively been reduced to lesser class now

Combat roach
Guest
Combat roach

Excellent comment.

Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

That’s not what Oracle said.

southseacompany
Member
southseacompany

“Chart Attack: This is how crazy Canada is for housing”, BNN video

http://www.bnn.ca/video/chart-attack-this-is-how-crazy-canada-is-for-housing~1160885

“Amber Kanwar and Jon Erlichman look at how much realtor commissions and other fees associated with buying and selling a home are contributing to Canada’s overall GDP in today’s Chart Attack.”

Best place on meth
Member
Best place on meth

Board stats for June have detached up 1.1% and condos up 2.9% from a month ago.

Just me
Guest
Just me
Oracle
Guest
Oracle

Won’t affect BC real estate. People buying $1 million homes don’t make huge mortgage payments.

Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

Don’t be silly.

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

snarky comment. Gloating that the NDP will protect your parents RE portfolio and the you have CRA on your side?

Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

CMHC tells us that people do have million dollar mortgages. And obviously they pay what interest rates dictate.