Friday Free-for-all!

Here you are at the end of another work week and what do you get for all your trouble?

Just another lousy Friday Free-for-all, that’s what!

Let’s do our regular end of the week news round up and open topic discussion thread for the weekend, here are a few recent links to kick off the chat:

IMF: Canada at huge risk
The end of the boom?
Lifting the veil on corp owners
October rate hike?
1/3 money in Toronto market gone
Foreigners (Canadians) pump up US prices

So what are you seeing out there? Post your news links, thoughts and anecdotes in the comments below and have an excellent weekend!

Sort by:   newest | oldest | most voted
Hyper-mega-Bull
Member
Hyper-mega-Bull

Richmond School District under fire for scrutinizing residency status

But, said Wong, the mom was put under unfair scrutiny to show she lived here because her permanent residency card expired. This is a moot point, according to Wong, since expiration doesn’t result in non-residency. He said the district asked her to provide income tax records as proof of residency, despite her being a stay-at-home mom whose husband works in China. This is another moot point, Wong noted, granted her own permanent residency status.

“There is a lot of pressure at the district level created by the higher than ever influx of returning PR [permanent residents] or Canadians from long-term absences. Most are very clear that they have returned for the child(rens) education but some cannot accept that this is not automatically free. I resent being called a racist…” wrote the official

http://www.richmond-news.com/news/richmond-school-district-under-fire-for-scrutinizing-residency-status-1.21245435

KickThemOut
Member
KickThemOut

Thank god for automatic deposit….those HKers never even have to come back to get their benefits now!

Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

Do you even read the other posts here, or just lunge straight for the “comment” button?

Hyper-mega-Bull
Member
Hyper-mega-Bull

it’s friday. cheer up.

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

Solid retail sales support rate hike; inflation lowest since 2015
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/canadas-inflation-rate-slows-core-measures-advance/article35758740/

>>> how long before Poloz realizes that the still spiking loonie will torpedo retail + real estate sales, tourism and exports and will have to do a Mario Draghi type about face come the beginning of 2018 at the very latest? at or around an 0.83-0.85 CADUSD canadians will be flocking to US to spend many 1000’s come back2school/black friday/xmas while tourists and int’l RE shoppers will stay home or go elsewhere

SpacedOut
Guest
SpacedOut

Not saying you’re wrong, but rates shouldn’t be 0.5% unless absolutely necessary. The whole point of rates that low was for emergency purposes only. I’m not sure I disagree with taking 1/4 point when you’re sitting at 0.5% and the economy seems somewhat stable and you haven’t had a raise in 7 years.. Even if it does make things a little more precarious. You can always give that 1/4 point back at a later date.

Owen
Member
Owen

I mostly agree, except that you can’t “just” give back the 25 bps and have things go back to the way there were. If the BoC is wrong, they’re pushing the economy closer to deflation. ECB raised rates in 2011 I think and now they’re all the way down to -0.5%. The BoC also says they’ll continue hikes, which affects expectations towards deflation. The ship of the economy doesn’t turn on a dime.

Best place on meth
Member
Best place on meth

There is no going back for Poloz on rates, he’s been given his orders from Trump.

Either get that loonie up and trade fairly, or NAFTA will be torn up and tariffs will be imposed.

Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

Canada almost always follows the US interest rates moves no matter who is in the Whitehouse, dummy.

SpacedOut
Guest
SpacedOut

So that makes his point of a low loonie impacting NAFTA negotiations wrong?

Share an opinion on the topic.

Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

My opinion is that Trump isn’t even control of his own party let alone a foreign government’s interest rate policy, as demonstrated by the fact he’s achieved absolutely nothing in 6 months of presidency. Unless you count backtracking and finger-pointing as accomplishments.

Owen
Member
Owen

I think you’ve got the current dynamic exactly right, but I think if inflation continues to fall they will have to backtrack. I mean, hopefully they would.

southseacompany
Member
southseacompany

“Is Canada’s Economy on the Verge of a Financial Crisis”, Bloomberg video

https://cdn-mobapi.bloomberg.com/wssmobile/v1/video/cc/android/WiFi/VOD_Akamai/5T7RiqpGTn64yOckzkq1uA.m3u8

Hilliard Macbeth interview.

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29
Mayor Robertson pitches backyard-home policy to increase low-cost housing https://beta.theglobeandmail.com/news/british-columbia/mayor-robertson-pitches-backyard-home-policy-to-increase-low-cost-housing/article35758382/ >>> mayor moonbeam’s proposal will wind up being a waste of everyone’s time as permission to build a coach house (thereby unlocking additional value) will be offset by restrictions on what can or can not be done with the primary home. of course, there will also be the Vacant Home/AirBnB gestapo on the loose to ensure someone is actually living (not vacationing) in what will be categorized by the CRA as a rental unit for tax purposes even if you have family living there for free putting the onus on the owner to prove he/she wasn’t simply failing to disclose rental income. I suspect out of all this comes a massive spike in submissions for demolition permits as this makes the most sense for owners from both a logistical and… Read more »
KickThemOut
Member
KickThemOut

Loving it. The more of this kind policies, the better! Less rift raft renters in my hood when I buy that nice mansion for 25c on the dollar, and finally enough room for a man cave! Bring it on!

Abdul Lahazi
Guest
Abdul Lahazi

Canada’s annual inflation rate slows again, this time to 1.0% in June:
https://app.tmxmoney.com/news/cpnews/article?locale=EN&newsid=TGB0836

KickThemOut
Member
KickThemOut

So anyone know the link to submit an empty home report? I’m dying to start reporting them! Any reward for reporting one that results in a fine?

franko
Member
franko

Just post it here, squatters will love you.

bestplaceonearth
Guest
bestplaceonearth

just go find moonbeam, tell him you area snitch, and you get a lollypop to suck on

Abdul Lahazi
Guest
Abdul Lahazi

2 Canadian Cavalia employees jailed in China for smoking pot:
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/montreal/cavalia-canadians-prison-smoking-pot-1.4215607?cmp=rss

Combat roach
Guest
Combat roach

Opposite to that, a Chinese who crashed his Mercedes at speeds of up to 250 km/h into the front yard of a home in a tony Vancouver neighborhood has avoided jail time.

Likely the faking locust avoids deportation too, due to a privileged status that comes with the background.

“The judge said a criminal conviction provided significant denunciation and noted the potential immigration consequences for Wang, a Chinese citizen with permanent residency status in Canada who faces possible deportation as a result of the conviction.”

http://vancouversun.com/news/local-news/teen-who-crashed-mercedes-at-250-kmh-in-vancouver-avoids-jail-time

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

The benefits of being a PR. Born and raised citizen here would be screwed.

Judge was scared the ‘racism’ card would be thrown at him by the media (Big business and Immigration Lobby)

Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

Note that the crown only asked for a 90 day sentence anyway.

Best place on meth
Member
Best place on meth

In a related story, Justin Bieber has just been banned from china.

Apparently, he’s not pure enough for those lying, cheating, thieving vermin.

Combat roach
Guest
Combat roach

And yet Canada suck up to the worst of their kind and give them the royal treatment at all levels. Clustershit…

SpacedOut
Guest
SpacedOut

I’m so curious what you do for a living Meth. Are you a functioning member of society with a well paying job and family, or a fuckstick with a library card and a mental heath issue? Shed some light for us. No specifics, but a general idea of your social status and function in society. I’m very interested to know.

Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

“Social status”. Good one.

Abdul Lahazi
Guest
Abdul Lahazi

Inflation, retail trade data reinforce expectations of gradual rate hike :
https://app.tmxmoney.com/news/cpnews/article?locale=EN&newsid=TGB0836&mobile=false

Hyper-mega-Bull
Member
Hyper-mega-Bull

Chinese firm expelled from trade association days before takeover of Canadian high-tech company

critics say Hytera’s past connections to Chinese security authorities and its questionable business dealings should have raised red flags in Ottawa.

The Trudeau government approved the Norsat sale to Hytera in early June without conducting a full-scale national security review.

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/chinese-firm-expelled-from-trade-association-days-before-takeover-of-canadian-high-tech-company/article35758019/

Bag it and tag it
Member
Bag it and tag it

This is awesome news! Trudeau deserves to have this bomb explode in his face over and over. To think, I used to like the guy….

Abdul Lahazi
Guest
Abdul Lahazi

When will people learn to not do business with Chinese companies? This type of thing happens over and over again.

Best place on meth
Member
Best place on meth

I had high hopes for Trudeau but I should have known better based on his commie-loving father.

It was embarrassing to be a Canadian under Harper, now it’s downright dangerous with this traitor.

Whistler or Bust?
Guest
Whistler or Bust?

I warned all you naive voters who wanted “Change”

Well you got it.

SpacedOut
Guest
SpacedOut

Can’t say I disagree. Definately disappointed with his performance and policies thus far.

BubbleTea
Guest
BubbleTea

I hope donald trump will jump on T2 for selling out the country to a communist totalitarian regime.

patriotz
Member

Like Trump hasn’t sold out himself? What happened to designating China a currency manipulator on “day one”? What about those trademarks? What about Ivankas’s shoe factory? What about Jared Kushner’s sister making that sales pitch in China for “investor immigrants”?

In a Beijing ballroom, Kushner family pushes $500,000 ‘investor visa’ to wealthy Chinese

Abdul Lahazi
Guest
Abdul Lahazi

http://globalnews.ca/news/42619/a-wounded-child-causes-an-internet-storm-in-china/

Many feel that China has lost its moral compass in the scramble to get rich.
“This society is seriously ill. Even cats and dogs shouldn’t be treated so heartlessly,” says one widely-quoted blog post.

Best place on meth
Member
Best place on meth

This was from 7 years ago, and they’ve actually gotten even worse.

BubbleTea
Guest
BubbleTea

Try this one. Its very recent and it makes me sick watching it. No one helps and second vehicle finish the job.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b80ooQJvvhg

Abdul Lahazi
Guest
Abdul Lahazi

If a person gets run over in China and is still alive there is a good chance the driver will run them over again and again to kill them. This is because if the victim is not dead then the driver will have to pay for their lifetime medical care. So it’s better financially for the driver if the victim is simply dead.

rockerguy
Member
rockerguy

Inventory velocity (the daily change in inventory) is accelerating upwards, and is at present the fastest for this time of the year out of any year since 2013.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vR65XizlBICoNpcjgHUYDuGzWbPtAuOwRkwqcz_FlGik7w9CLQtcthLBhSynhhX01tF1ekiC1Xh6RRd/pubchart?oid=125914527&format=interactive

Dave
Member

2016 had a good spike for obvious reasons but that’s unique of course.

Do have any data comparing July sales to date against previous years? This past week looked weak to me.

Best place on meth
Member
Best place on meth

This July is running 148 sales per day.

2016-175
2015-191
2014-144
2013-137
2012-103
2011-132

LS in Arbutus
Guest
LS in Arbutus

What we can’t see though is the change in the sales mix. SFH are way down and condos way up.

Bear Vancouverite
Member
Bear Vancouverite

Hey SIDA I have a question on property value based on rent.

You previously indicated that in a scenario where home is bringing in $4600 /mo, with 20% down and 2.8% interest such property would be worth ~$2M to you as an investor.

There’s currently a SFH listing in Vancouver in the Renfrew area that has a small rental suite. This is an older 70+yr old home that appears to be in good condition. The combined rent is $4000/mo. Using the same metrics (20% down, 2.8% interest, 25yrs amort), what would you personally consider to be the fair value of such a property.

Bear Vancouverite
Member
Bear Vancouverite

Just for the record and for contrast, patriotz previously indicated he would use a ~200x rent to value ratio.

Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

You don’t say what the property taxes are, and I wouldn’t touch an old timer like that – but I’m happy to play the game. Back of the envelope, $1.5-1.6ish?

paulb
Member
Active Member

New
169
Price Change
44
Sold
149
TI:9806

http://www.clivestevepaul.com

Oh NO
Guest
Oh NO

Had dinner with my buddy who is in insolvency business in Vancouver today, says he sold his house and says shit is about to hit the fan, people are balls deep in debt

history
Guest
history

Over a quarter (27%) of Canadians with a mortgage agree that they are ‘in over their head’ with their current mortgage payments. This includes more than one in three Quebecers (35%), followed by residents of B.C. (32%), Alberta (31%), Atlantic Canada (25%), Saskatchewan and Manitoba (23%), and Ontario (21%).
Half of Canadians (51%) are concerned about the potential impact on home owners that a decrease in house prices might bring.

Over forty (44%) of Canadians are within $200 of financial insolvency at the end of the month, down 8 points from March 2017, and 12 points from September 2016.

Women are significantly more likely (48% women vs. 39% men) than men to be within $200 of insolvency at month-end.

Gen X’ers are more likely (48%) to be within $200 of insolvency at month-end, compared to Millennials (43%) and Baby Boomers (40%).

http://mnpdebt.ca/en/blog/mnp-survey-albertans-concerned-about-impact-of-interest-rate-hikes-and-potential-housing-bubble

Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

Can’t be true, it’s the foreigners who are driving up prices. Right?

history
Guest
history

there are many truths

Are these two??
-Loose RE and immigration regs have allowed the mainland Chinese to control the Vcr RE margin, <2m.

– You only have to control the margin if you wish to set price.

Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

Utter nonsense. If that were true you’d never see any sort of market crash.

patriotz
Member

The marginal buyer is the one who is LEAST able to afford the current market price. That’s why they control the price – they are the last one in and first one out.

history
Guest
history

Take note, the Ottawa Mandarin gets it

bestplaceonearth
Guest
bestplaceonearth

yep, people do it, just to regret years later.
the same thing for people who did not buy houses or townhouses when they had the chance, just to realize they are priced out of condos too. greed plays a role here too, cuz they want from others for less.

history
Guest
history

i live in a van down by the river. Heard that one before?… for about 8-12 percent of the population, they just aint into debt. It’s not about house envy.

if you read up, eventually you’ll come across the word ‘remnant’ This is the 8-12 percent in any endeveour who dont go along, never.

The remnant pulls society out of the flood, with valuable work. ie, they lead the gang to work from debtors prisons, or they incinerate suicide corpses.

Combat roach
Guest
Combat roach

Moron can’t fathom that, she thinks “ownership” of Vancouver RE is a holy grail and ticket to eternity.

history
Guest
history

They will never admit their exit strategy plans. Very few Han will be bag holders or do time in a debtors prisons. If any of the do, it will be a faked holocaust your descendants will be guilted with for generations

bestplaceonearth
Guest
bestplaceonearth

well , dont worry for them. your descendants will be landless due to your inaction. think about that!

bestplaceonearth
Guest
bestplaceonearth

it is. you just dont have the ballto admit it .

bestplaceonearth
Guest
bestplaceonearth

well, then why all the bitching if not envious and jealousy?

history
Guest
history

a guy who lives debt free is neither envious or jealous. He steps aside while you pick up your dogs shit.

Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

Except you don’t need to live in a van to be debt free.

BubbleTea
Guest
BubbleTea

China: More Than 210,000 Officials Punished for Corruption in 2017
https://www.occrp.org/en/daily/6755-china-more-than-210-000-officials-punished-for-corruption-in-2017
Wonder how much of that corrupt money is hidden in Vancouver houses.

franko
Member
franko

Yesterday Glen Clark’s daughter, today Joy Macphail.

The former NDP leader Joy Macphail who has never worked in insurance before has been appointed by Horgan as chair of ICBC….stay tuned.

history
Guest
history

cool, a pure, over-the-top political appointment.

Christy’s ICBC thong crazed girl army better find a comfortable gag… they’ll be wearing it for a while.

patriotz
Member

All Crown corporation board appointments are political. Actually most private sector board appointments are political in the broad sense. They are there for their connections, not their expertise in the particular business.

http://www.collierscanada.com/en/news/2016/colliers-appoints-canada-former-prime-minister-stephen-harper-board-of-directorsExhibit A

patriotz
Member
YVR
Guest
YVR

Looks like will appoint every washed up NDPer to something. So refreshing. I wonder what Moe Sihota’s appointment will be or is he in jail?

CRA222
Guest
CRA222

I’m renting a house in Vancouver and I’m trying to figure out why my Chinese neighbour keeps putting their garbage in my garbage can in the back lane. I caught her the other day and she just kept saying “sorry.” (but didn’t remove it).

Is this some cultural thing I’m missing? They don’t speak English so I can’t communicate with them, but I don’t understand why they think it’s OK to put their garbage in my can so I don’t have any room left.

I’m going to have to start putting my cans in the garage until garbage day.

history
Guest
history

you need to implement more regulation, lock your garbage cans.

SpacedOut
Guest
SpacedOut

Even better, hook the can up to an old car battery with a bit of charge left in it. Just make sure you disconnect it on garbage day.

SpacedOut
Guest
SpacedOut

Or put the bag at their back door after they go to bed and let the coons tear it apart during the night. Betting it doesn’t happen again after that. Should bridge that communication gap quite effectively.

history
Guest
history

‘betting’? isnt that what created the garbage in the first place?

Best place on meth
Member
Best place on meth

Or put the coons right into the garbage can and set up a camera to record the ensuing hilarity and screams.

Combat roach
Guest
Combat roach

Could be some traditional cultural custom of showing great respect towards neighbours by sharing garbage and getting cozy, who would know? Just make sure there aren’t some leftovers from meth chemicals or animals which are not pat of usual menu in Canada.

Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

Out of interest, what would you do if they were French, German, or Spanish?

CRA222
Guest
CRA222

Probably put my cans away like I did. I don’t care what they are it’s rude to fill up someone else’s garbage can with your stuff so you can’t fit your own in.

Nice try at race baiting.

Best place on meth
Member
Best place on meth

It was a moronic question anyway.

Just imagine the absurdity of the notion that someone from Germany would dump their garbage on you like that.

Asinine.

Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

Just like nobody from Germany would build a car that detects when it’s emissions are being tested for the purpose of industrial-scale cheating?

Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

*its

Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

Your answer was exactly what I expected.

Maroon
Guest
Maroon

I has seen that before but I am not certain that it applies to your case. Examine the content. Typically rooming house owners try to transfer drug use needles and other things like it to the neighboring houses garbage cans.

Does the house have many people coming in and going . Is it a rooming house..

CRA222
Guest
CRA222

The contents were crackers with labelling in Chinese (couldn’t understand it) and two other bags with Chinese lettering on them. I did not want to examine the contents further, but I confronted the neighbour who kept saying “sorry” to me in English, but here English skills are so limited it was impossible to communicate further.

She did seem to be caught and admitted what she did was wrong.

They do have a basement suite though (illegal).

Hyper-mega-Bull
Member
Hyper-mega-Bull

Chinese imams forced to dance in Xinjiang region

China forced imams from its eastern Muslim majority Xinjiang region to dance in the street and swear to an oath that they would not teach religion to children.

The imams were also forced to tell children that prayer was harmful for the soul.

https://tribune.com.pk/story/871879/suppressing-religious-freedoms-chinese-imams-forced-to-dance-in-xinjiang-region/

history
Guest
history

when was that story published? April 18… 2015

prick

Hyper-mega-Bull
Member
Hyper-mega-Bull

oh, you already heard about this?

history
Guest
history

yeah, i heard, keep my eyes and ears open. I have a gas station on the Silk Hiway. The Imans are busy customers at the Han operated brothels. Hairless women are in big demand.

patriotz
Member

“its eastern Muslim majority Xinjiang region”

What idiot wrote this story? Xinjiang is the westernmost part of China.

Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

Perhaps that’s better than brainwashing children into thinking that the invisible sky fairy listens to their prayers, which happens constantly in Western schools?

Combat roach
Guest
Combat roach
history
Guest
history

the problem with peak boomers is that they are now at the age when they reduce debt and spend less. If you have no debt, now is the time to spend more. A few investment ideas: Boutique port-a-potties for the women formerly employed by ICBC, as future construction workers. And coin dispensed garbage cans.

history
Guest
history

boomers are being forced to work longer than they have before…

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-07-22/david-rosenberg-single-most-important-thing-market-over-next-decade

debt pig boomers, i should add

Yikes
Guest
Yikes

Calling the top…..Todd Talbot of Love it or list it just listed his Lions Bay house for sale

Best place on meth
Member
Best place on meth

15 houses for sale in Lions Bay and 14 of them are 2M+.

The top end of the market is a disaster, now we just need Andrew Horgan to cancel Krusty’s welfare program for first time buyers and the bottom end of the market will die as well.

history
Guest
history
Just me
Guest
Just me
history
Guest
history

https://www.numbeo.com/property-investment/region_rankings_current.jsp?region=021

NDP should read this too. Vancouver is way out in front in least affordable NA cities. It’s Not the same City last time they had power.

as for the Demographia survey, this 84 page pdf document doesnt mention the word Debt, not once.
But it has lots to say about Central Banks doing their ‘jobs’… too funny

Bear Vancouverite
Member
Bear Vancouverite

Part of the underlying thesis in that entire piece is that we need to build more, and densify: eg there’s a supply issue. whilst one common opinion here that I also believe is that there’s a demand problem due to speculators and non-resident investors.

“Insufficient options for construction can be the driving force behind a rising price-to-income ratio, with home prices increasing over the long term even if the city has acquired no new industry, cachet, or talent. Once the city has run out of available building sites, its continued growth must be accommodated by the departure of lower-income people.”

I’m not opposed to more densification, I believe we need to create much more non-strata rowhousing as a form of densification (we can do around 2x densification).

YVR
Guest
YVR

“Part of the underlying thesis in that entire piece is that we need to build more”

If there was a true shortage people would be living in the streets. With the exception of a few thousand homeless who have drug and mental health issues everyone seems to have a place to live yet costs have skyrocketed. It is the willingness and ability for people to pay the high prices that support the prices. The ability is supported by cheap and easy credit and the willingness is the expectation prices will rise. Remove one or both and it collapses. No extra supply needed.

Best place on meth
Member
Best place on meth

It’s interesting to me that a tiny, densely population city like Singapore has a price-to-income ratio of 4.8

We have far more space than they do.

Kim
Guest
Kim

Or just look at other cities. It’s all artificial demand from Asia. The Chinese are not able to get much of their money out now so nothing is moving at the high end, save for a few houses that are bought by locals because they sold their old SFH in a prime location.

Just me
Guest
Just me

They did not have the BC Libs and especially MS Clark for 16 years. When politicians are easily manipulated (through gifts and such) things get out of hand.

history
Guest
history

it’s got more to do with lack of regulation, in the RE industry and the immigration racket.

Owen
Member
Owen

It was surging, and in 2015, after some price decline, was still rated by UBS as the 4th least affordable in the world. It took a 11 rounds of government cooling efforts to get where they are today: https://www.globalpropertyguide.com/Asia/Singapore/Price-History

Owen
Member
Owen

It’s also worth noting that Singaporeans have their shit together in a way that the Vancouver metro quite obviously does not.

patriotz
Member

“Singapore has a price-to-income ratio of 4.8”

90+% of properties in Sing are leasehold condos. As someone pointed out, prices have come down, but that’s still to high.

history
Guest
history

the Deep State has done wonders annihilating the Vcr homeless. All classes of people are dealt with ruthlesslessly to this end. For instance, useless people with Insurance are leveraged to keep the Latimar in us in guilt bondage. Instantly rich homeowners quickly disown extended families.

A Sociopath or Pyschotic are the only ones that do well.

patriotz
Member

I would also add that if there were a true shortage the average household size would be high, not at record lows.

history
Guest
history

We are entering into a crisis of Downsizing. There is little imagination to fill these empty homes. Very little quality out there to run boarding houses, mostly sociopaths Over their heads on Heloc grief

Owen
Member
Owen

I agree. Reading the news, people seem to assume that no one should have to suffer the indignity of having a roommate. But also, landlords won’t allow too much sharing, and people who indefinitely defer their property taxes see little incentive to downsize.

Owen
Member
Owen

The rental vacancy rate and condo sales inventories are also at/near record lows. That’s pretty convincing of a shortage to me. Also, people are leaving the city because they can’t afford it or to take advantage of prices, there aren’t a fixed number of people that live here. I come downtown from Surrey every day. High homelessness is not the only alternative to a housing surplus.

patriotz
Member

“The rental vacancy rate and condo sales inventories are also at/near record lows. That’s pretty convincing of a shortage to me.”

Remember that stock and supply are two different things. Supply is properties on the market. That’s being artificially restricted by speculation and government incentives (e.g. tax deferral). Stock is all properties. There’s no shortage of stock, as proven by the low average household size.

YVR
Guest
YVR

If you compare housing bubbles to other bubbles like the tulip bubble or the tech stock bubble it is easy to see supply is not the problem. Was it a shortage of tulip bulbs or a shortage of tech stocks that caused those bubbles? Tech stocks were highest when there massive IPOs and new tech companies starting up. It was not more supply that fixed things. It was people stopped believing the tech stocks or tulip bulbs would continue to rise that caused the collapse.

history
Guest
history

The bulb bubble was built on deals that didnt flow thru. The Dutch were collectors of useless things, not unlike the mentality that sees people collect housing, but not to live in.

YVR
Guest
YVR

“house prices across the world”

Houses across the world have two key things in common. The vast majority are bought with credit and housing cannot be imported. Low interest rates and easy access to credit has fueled the world wide bubble. The fact housing cannot be imported gives the local governments the incentive to support the bubble because there are so many local short term positive spin offs when housing is rising. Local high paying jobs, wealth effect, higher tax revenues, etc. This cycle has repeated many times in history and we all know how it ends. All the positives turn negative.

history
Guest
history

true, housing is fixed, the achilles heel of modern capitalism. Now we see ever more regulation on housing and air travel, ’cause it aint working, the FIRE is outta control

I work in fixed housing but dont use my income to feed the beast. This is a big problem, and suggests to the central bankers that QE is done. Escape velocity is a set of wheels you live in.

Best place on meth
Member
Best place on meth

” If too many lifelong inhabitants are driven out by rising housing prices, the city itself suffers from a loss of identity and even culture.

As such people depart, an expensive city gradually becomes an enclave of high-income households, and begins to take on their values.”

If only that were the case in Vancouver. Instead, our long-time residents are being driven out by people with no apparent income who live in multi-million dollar houses.

history
Guest
history

they do have income, a click or two on their e-transfer bank app.

your mission as a new Vcr resident, is to have such an app, fed with loot from overseas, the oilfields, or any other place where money is made. but people dont wish to live.

history
Guest
history

i can just see a throng of BC Filipinos bitching to their lawyers back home to Reverse the money flow. We need to have more input here from this very interesting class of Canadians.

Hyper-mega-Bull
Member
Hyper-mega-Bull

if you apply what he’s saying to vancouver you come tot he conclusion that vancouver prices are high because of fundamentals. lack of supply caused by geography or political barriers.

it’s too bad he didn’t realize this sooner, he could have made some good money investing in vancouver real estate.

“I’ll tell you one thing, I’m not investing in Vancouver real estate.”
– Robert Shiller, 2012

http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2012/09/10/vancouver-housing-bubble-shiller_n_1871140.html

Best place on meth
Member
Best place on meth

Detched MOI in the central parts of Metro is sitting at 8.

In the far flung areas of the Fraser Valley it’s at 4.

Coldest markets are West Van (14), Burnaby (12.5), Van West (11), Van East (9).

Hottest are Chilliwack (2.6), Ft. Langley (2.8), Abby (3.2), Mission (3.2).

I don’t recall the last time the disparity between the 2 markets was so large.

Just me
Guest
Just me

Chinese money has been cut (not eliminated yet) by XI Jinping.

Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

Have you considered using this theory to predict future prices instead of explaining the past?

history
Guest
history

the RE bull trap isnt theoritical. it’s in Oracle’s navel

Bear Vancouverite
Member
Bear Vancouverite

All around good news, and great post. Would appreciate if you update this on a monthly basis.

Best place on meth
Member
Best place on meth

Stats are posted every two weeks on Sunday here:

http://www.vancouvermarketreports.com/

I will most likely post them but if I don’t then bookmark this site and get out your calculator.

history
Guest
history

McLister severely embarresed the Feds. Called them out on their banking favoritism that explained Emphatically the gig is controlled by the UN Deep State.

He gets bought out on his website CMT, and now is the head gearbox for the clusterfuck dinner on the table.

ok spinners, send us an MSM story

Kim
Guest
Kim

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/07/21/upshot/when-the-empty-apartment-next-door-is-owned-by-an-oligarch.html?smprod=nytcore-ipad&smid=nytcore-ipad-share

Rhys Kesselman, another professor at Simon Fraser University, has proposed an intriguing alternative: a property surtax tilted toward high-end homes that would be deductible against the owner’s income tax. Local residents paying income taxes would effectively owe no surtax. Out-of-town investors, foreign or domestic, who don’t work in the local economy would be hardest hit (with some concessions for resident retirees).

Just me
Guest
Just me

This is an intelligent and practical idea. One wonders why it is ignored. Could it be because it works?

YVR
Guest
YVR

Because retirees and those close to retirement age would freak out.

Bag it and tag it
Member
Bag it and tag it

Apparently you not only didn’t read the article but you also didn’t read Kim’s summary either “concessions made for resident retirees”. And by the way, retirees still have incomes (pensions, RRSP drawdowns (post conversion), fixed income, dividend income, etc), so they shouldn’t be fully exempt in cases of zero income.

YVR
Guest
YVR

I personally would love to see it but I was answering the question of why it has not been done. Do you think if this plan was announced every home owner would say that sounds great because the article says some concessions would be given to some home owners. You are naive.

Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

And because it implies that anybody who isn’t a debt slave is somehow suspicious. I’m sure those who despise the wealthy will lap it up, though.

Just me
Guest
Just me

It implies no such thing. Have you read the article?

Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

Yes, I have read it. It hinges on the fact that everybody pays income taxes unless they’re a retiree. The statement “Local residents paying income taxes would effectively owe no surtax” implies this.

Did you read the bit that says “And it recognizes that the real problem isn’t foreigners”? No? Thought not.

Doomcouver
Guest
Doomcouver

I thought retirees paid income tax as well…. I’m pretty sure when you withdraw from your RRSP you pay income tax.

I think the only people that would get screwed are ones living off capital gains, or people making untaxed foreign income.

Kim
Guest
Kim

Our politicians have no substance. They implemented the 15% and empty homes tax precisely because it seemed like they were doing something but in reality there are so many loopholes as to render it ineffective.

The slowdown in the high end market is due to President Xi preventing outflow of money. That’s it.

Doomcouver
Guest
Doomcouver

Yes the 15% FBT is so easily bypassed it is a joke. Until they close the loopholes the tax is completely ineffectual, exactly the way the Liberals wanted it to be.

patriotz
Member

“Vancouver instituted a 15 percent tax on home purchases by foreign nationals last year to discourage them, and Toronto has done the same.”

And this from the New York TImes. These same people would go ballistic if someone confused New York City with New York State.

patriotz
Member

If you want to read what Kesselman actually said, here’s a link. Note he advocated that the tax would start at $1million and seniors could be given a higher threshold (which I think is too generous myself).

Kesselman

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