It’s the end of another week and that means it’s time for another Friday Free-for-all!
Let’s do our regular weekend open topic discussion thread, but this time we’ll skip the news round up.
Sometimes admins like to take summer vacations too.
Post your news links, thoughts and anecdotes in the comments below and have an excellent weekend!
Got dragged out for blueberry u-pick in Ladner this weekend. The place is supposed to be all natural and organic with no chemical fertilizer or any pesticide. And the cost is $1/lb! Well, first warning should have been the Chinese guy in broken English asking everyone to prepay $10. But looking at the vast blueberries fields we figure what the heck, should be easy to pick 10 lbs of firm juicy delicious berries. Well, turns out the field is organic because it was simply left as it is without any work done on it at all. Any average sized blueberries is hard to find. Most are either tiny babies or shriveled up. We spend 2 hours going row after row with barely a pound gathered. By the time we got to the end of the row, we found out. A… Read more »
[…] YVR pointed out this article by Rob Mclister about the OSFI B-20 bombshell: […]
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Is Vancouver still going strong and no shit is happening here?
Toronto Home Sales Plummet to a Seven-Year Low
I think we’ll know what’s happening in early October, once we get the September numbers. I think it will take a bit of time for the combined effect of higher rates and a new government to show a trend. We had a couple low sales days last week, which may or may not mean something. I’m of mixed minds and I got back and fourth. Right now, I have to ask how is this not the peak? We’ve had a long run up based on low interest rates, foreign money and a friendly Provincial government. All of those things have changed. How can prices possibly keep going up? On other days, I look at listings and think they’re low. Construction is relatively high but within historic norms and our population is growing. Money is still cheap and governments are unlikely… Read more »
And for the record, I’m cheering for a bubble burst even though I’ll suffer financially because of it. The shit show is worth the price of admission.
a Peace bubble burst in 1914, lotta people cheered
One house per person/family. Tax the 2nd. That takes the speculation out of the market.
A Third Of The Money In Toronto’s Housing Market Has Disappeared
http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2017/07/17/canadian-home-sales-drop-by-the-most-in-7-years_a_23033866/
Sniffing out the truth about the end of the Canadian real estate boom: Don Pittis
Seems to have a bearish tone … albeit with hedges peppered in for proper posterior coverage.
If I wanted an opinion on the BC forest fires, I would ask Don Pittis. If I wanted an opinion on BC real estate, I wouldn’t waste my breath.
Fair enough. I’ve felt that when he writes on some other topics as well.
China Stock Market Crash: More than 2,800 stocks fell across Chinese markets on “Black Monday”, with nearly 500 dropping by their daily limit of 10 per cent.
http://www.scmp.com/business/markets/article/2102983/china-stocks-plunge-black-monday-nearly-500-stocks-falling-daily?utm_source=Direct
China is nothing more than a tinderbox and Vancouver RE better watch out.
Those are just small companies. Shanghai market only fell 1.4%.
Yawn.
This week is the 48th anniversary of man going to the Moon. Blast off was July 16, …
8 day round trip.
the chinese stock market has crashed twice already and vancouver real estate didn’t even blink.
Right, because they’re uncorrelated.
the last the the chinese stock market crashed was 2015. how was that year for vancouver real estate?
Housing does not react instantly. And the crashes were quickly extinguish with capital infusion and arrest… so the bubble gets bigger
>>> it must be official then…
HGTV’s Todd Talbot selling Lions Bay, B.C. home
http://bc.ctvnews.ca/list-it-hgtv-s-todd-talbot-selling-lions-bay-b-c-home-1.3504644
HGTV’s current programming focuses primarily on home-buying, renovation, and reality shows following the business of house flipping. SNI CEO Ken Lowe stated of the programming strategy that “We’re not going to surprise you. We’re not going to throw you a curve ball. It’s not easy to create content that people are passionate about and somewhat addicted to that is somewhat repetitive.”
Sniffing out the truth about the end of the Canadian real estate boom
http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/canadian-real-estate-impact-1.4203087
Since there is a lot of disharmony on this blog, we should get a primer on how the Lower Mainland is going to look in 20 years time. 33 years time. In 2037, Metro Vancouver north of the Fraser is going to be predominantly Asian while South of the Fraser will be dominated by Indians and Philippinos. Mixing won’t happen so there will be mini-countries within the lower mainland. The white population will slowly move away or will be dwarfed. I’m thinking 65% visible minority population by 2037. If Trudeau is true to his word, then 70% is achievable if he increases immigration to 500,000 per year. Thus the best land in Canada was in the hands of the indigenous population for thousands of years, then in hands of the White people for 150 years, and then in the future… Read more »
Also at this stage in 2037, it would be best for the people of the Lower Mainland to sign mutual defence treaties with the militaries of China and India of there is aggression from Central Canada when differences arise.
Its coming!!!
Indians and Filipinos are Asians. I’m also not sure how your commentary is intended to cure, rather than cause, the “disharmony” you mention.
He is asking for lazy bum whities to rise up and take charge of their country again! Indians and Filipinos know their place – that of the invisible service class, disappear when not needed, never taking high paying good career jobs from their masters, and most importantly be grateful when their masters grant them the opportunity of their lifetime to be their mistresses, wife / caretaker, and bear their children. Chinese on the other hand have been steadily taking away good high paying jobs, destroy local companies, buying up houses, and not at all being grateful when granted the coveted girlfriend, mistress, or wife status.
Intention was to extrapolate current trends and how racism will do a 180 in 20 years….along with agitating BPOM lol
Main premise is that there is no ‘mixing’ of races going on. And will only get worse.
I’m most agitated by your assertion that 65% constitutes a minority.
Victoria councillor looks to ban strata prohibitions on rentals
http://vancouversun.com/news/local-news/victoria-councillor-looks-to-ban-strata-prohibitions-on-rentals
airbnb pressure
Miss piggie after the hermetically sealed seasonal rental customers. To go with her hermetically sealed auto loan, mortgage and FIRE industry job.
Only 23 more days until the big 1, 388, 888,888 party!
http://www.worldometers.info/world-population/
Oh, and Oracle…please tell your people to stop humping. In 5 years they’re going to take away the crown of “worlds most overpopulated shitehole” from the chinese.
Dear god, we need to close our borders.
Now why would i do that? 1 person equals 1 vote. I hope another million Indians wind up here in the next 20 years!! China beating us in that sense. Need to pay you Caucasian bureaucrats more under the table to make this happen.
Close your borders? Huge majority of babies now born in the lower mainland are visible majority already. Even closing the borders now means whites will be a footnote in the history of the Lower Mainland.
Hope you feel better. 🙂
Liu Xiaobo, the only man brave enough to speak how China need to be brought into modern society has passed away.
We need to remember him! There are vigils and silent protests planned, I urge all of you to attend this important events.
Liu Xiobo: “[It would take] 300 years of colonialism. In 100 years of colonialism, Hong Kong has changed to what we see today. With China being so big, of course it would require 300 years as a colony for it to be able to transform into how Hong Kong is today. I have my doubts as to whether 300 years would be enough.”
Who? Unpronounceable name. Nobody cares. China needs an revolt to get rid of the commies, that’s all.
Well, lucky for you, Trudeau government has set a precedent of paying terrorist who are captured by foreign governments. Time for you to go to China and start a revolution. CIA and George Soros NGO will pay you well for your efforts as well. A SFH in Van West is definitely in the cards as minimum.
China’s shame: Liu Xiaobo is first Nobel Peace Prize laureate to die in chains since Nazi era
Disgusting chinanazis. Jinpig and his gangsters are the worst kind of cowards for putting this guy in jail in the first place.
Trudeau is complicit as well.
So what are you lazy bums doing about it? Beside typing useless drivel with one hand sitting on a couch? The world is messed up because of lazy bums like you who act tough but just wants to ride the coattail of the productive class, and then complaining about not getting your “fair share”.
Hey Pope, I was IP-banned (and apparently not account-banned) while reading, within the past half hour. If intentional I’d appreciate an email saying why. Thanks!
You may have been on IP shared by a spammer or troll
The new OSFI’s stress test rules will make 20% of the mortgage market not qualify or they will have to reduce their mortgage by 18% to qualify. That is before recent and future mortgage rate increases are factored in.
Roughly 80% of new big bank lending in the richly valued Toronto and Vancouver markets is low-ratio mortgage lending
OSFI’s stress test, as proposed, would slash buying power for prime buyers by roughly 18%
For non-prime borrowers, qualifying rates would immediately rocket into the 6% to 7% range
https://www.canadianmortgagetrends.com/2017/07/b-20-bombshell/
After 15 years of everything going FOR real estate, it seems like now everything is going AGAINST real estate.
It could finally be that perfect storm coming.
Yes, tides flow both ways.
As Warren Buffet has said “only when the tide goes out do you discover who’s been swimming naked”. Most people are metaphorical skinny dippers in Canadian real estate.
They will backtrack as the deadline approaches. This has been going on for a decade now.
This month, the limit on foreign currency transactions in China was lowered to $9,000 to increase scrutiny on investment money flowing out of the country.
Some fear it could be the catalyst that finally causes Vancouver’s bloated real-estate prices to collapse.
http://www.cbc.ca/beta/news/canada/british-columbia/housing-market-bubble-pop-overblown-china-capital-controls-1.4191491
How so, when according to usual experts Chinese factor is irrelevant ?
Strawman.
The influence of Chinese money is negligible, blah blah blah……
…and planet earth is flat.
$65K can cover a HAM house mortgage payment and property taxes. $9K not so much.
How so, when according to usual experts Chinese launder their money ?
Ultra high end luxury market was already mostly dead in Vancouver lately. I’d imagine this will be the final nail in the coffin of everything above the $5 million mark. The domestic idiots will continue to fight over everything they can lever up enough to afford. If the interest rates kill the bottom half of the market though and the Chinese capital controls kill the top half, look out it’s the perfect storm everyone is talking about.
Ultra high end listings are hitting the market in large numbers.
Just this past week the west side had listings of 25, 21 and 20 million making them the 4th, 6th, and 8th highest priced listings out of the 700 or so west side detached.
Most money brought in via import over invoicing.
With a China Free trade deal, the floodgates will be wide open.
HELOC abuse is often cited as one cause of the subprime mortgage crisis.[2][3]
A home equity line of credit (often called HELOC, pronounced Hee-lock) is a loan in which the lender agrees to lend a maximum amount within an agreed period (called a term), where the collateral is the borrower’s equity in his/her house (akin to a second mortgage). Because a home often is a consumer’s most valuable asset, many homeowners use home equity credit lines only for major items, such as education, home improvements, or medical bills, and choose not to use them for day-to-day expenses.[1]
Did I mention how much I am enjoying twitter? Check this out: https://twitter.com/Silver_Watchdog/status/886076159745826816 HELOC balances up 8.2% year on year…. I’ll give you math on paying for a family (of 5) to live on the west side of Vancouver, probably not much different anywhere else Rent/ Mortgage $3,500 Food $1,500 Daycare (1 kid) $1,500 Vehicles $ 500 Activities for kids $500 Other $1,000 Total $8,500 Daycare cost is a lot higher if you have 2 or more under 5. If your kids dance, play hockey, do any type of involved sport, it’s expensive. Food is probably more as well. The above is NOT living crazy. $8,500 per month translates to $100,000 after tax, or $150,000 gross at 30% tax rate. Costs would not be a lot different if you expand this across the lower mainland. See what people are living… Read more »
No question HELOCs are a big part of the BC economy. What is taking out $40k per year to help with life style when you have $1 million in equity gains. Once prices contract the wealth effect and access to cash through HELOCs goes in reverse.
At which point you’ll see just how “solid” Christy Clark’s economy is.
It was all built on rising home equity and borrowing.
Actually it is Hogan’s economy now and will be when we see the impact. When Obama was elected he was given the gift of having the crash take place months before getting elected. The only way to go was up. With Horgan he gets the opposite. Takes over at near peak with a perfect storm brewing. The only way is down. In the future you will hear a lot about remember the NDP in 2018. It was a disaster.
David Eby MIA. Backtracking.
I don’t think they will do much on housing.
So far in July, two things are happening in local real estate.
Sales are deteriorating rapidly, much faster than is normal between June & July.
The other thing (so far) is that listings are significantly higher than last month, which is absolutely bizarre.
Seems like somethings up.
I agree on this one. Right now active listings are increasing significantly at a rate which is contrary to the seasonal trend. In the month of July, the active listings have, on average, fallen from June. However, a couple times in history, they have increased, including 2008, where they increased by around 1,000 – and we all know where that led to. We are on pace for at least 600-700 increase. There is a little bit of shock in the market right now, (chng gov’t, int rates, new bank rules coming) so we’ll see were this all leads.
are you are still priced out! that is nothing new!
Why don’t you just emigrate back to China?
Was that comment really necessary you moron? No wonder you give the Chinese a bad name.
Why would i wanna move away from the best place on earth? like you are gonna move back to india? racist like you give Indian bad name too! There you have it.
He’s not from India. He pretends to be.
But the former imbecile is definitely from China.
Put pressure on Weaver Horgan and Eby to bring this ship down.
Only thing is Trudeau and McCallum in the way. Treasonists.
Hunh? Deficit spending, newly proposed OSFI regulations, recent CMHC qualification tightening are all things the Federal gov did/is doing to tighten the housing market. The cities and province have been acting to make housing more expensive.
Idiot Asian women destroy $200,000 worth of art when taking a picture at L.A. museum.
http://globalnews.ca/news/3598873/selfie-picture-woman-knocks-over-art/
What does this has to do with Vancouver or real estate?
Nothing, but then it’s called Friday-Free-For-All for a reason.
If you want to bitch at someone for posting useless off-topic garbage:
cool, i can whine about my itchy arse too! Yay!
You should see a doctor then.
Yes, the whining about the lottery winner was way more on-topic.
Twat.
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China tells world to stay out of its ‘domestic affairs’ over Liu Xiaobo’s death and labelling the 2010 decision to award the late activist a Nobel peace prize “a blasphemy.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/jul/14/china-rejects-foreign-condemnation-over-liu-xiaobo-death
And we let this country buy up our country and control our fate.
Speaks for it self.
Oh Canada…. (distant echo..)
Are they buying up our country, or are they giving us boatloads of money for moldy crackhouses on loud main roads in Vancouver? Once they lose interest, the house prices will crater and Canadians will have pocketed a bunch of money from foolish house-horny Chinese people. It’s all a matter of perspective.
Suckers we are, China is printing up trillions to buy up our country.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XCoU7wJaKU0
And another one:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QIq8PO18Eso
And another one:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YYWkGMKhUmU
Wow, they’re printing Canadian dollars?!?!
These greedy grubs are ruining Canada USA, Australia, and New Zealand. And the politicians stand idly by while citizens are priced out of their own property markets by these Chineeze money laundering scum.
And I bet you’ve never been to half those countries.
The “greedy grubs” are locals who want something for nothing rather than actually producing something.
Lumber prices see ‘big jump’ after wildfires in British Columbia
http://vancouversun.com/business/local-business/lumber-prices-see-big-jump-after-wildfires-in-british-columbia
>>> what’s the over/under on whether these cost increases get passed on to the consumer just as quickly as the banks upped their rates?
Richmond Is BC’s New Foreign Buying Capital
https://betterdwelling.com/bai-bai-vancouver-bc-has-a-new-foreign-buying-capital/
Local government sounds alarm over development on Vancouver’s Grouse Mountain
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/british-columbia/local-bc-government-sounds-alarm-over-development-on-ecologically-sensitive-grouse-mountain/article35689169/
>>> i hear luxury chalets with panoramic views were sold out a long time ago and will soon net developers more than what total purchase price was
What was your source for that last bit?