Friday Free-for-all! July 7th 2017

It’s the end of another summer week in the city and that means it’s time for another Friday Free-for-all!

This is our regular end of the week news round up and open topic discussion thread for the weekend, here are a few recent links to kick off the chat:

Condo flipping accelerating
Rate hike looms with record debt
Cracks in Green / NDP alliance?
Everybody worried about house prices

So what are you seeing out there? Post your news links, thoughts and anecdotes in the comments below and have an excellent weekend!

267 Comments on "Friday Free-for-all! July 7th 2017"

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Abdul Lahazi
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Abdul Lahazi
Abdul Lahazi
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Abdul Lahazi

“”I would say that a lot of their technology mirrors Airbus,” he said.”

Chinese now copy Airbus? Say it’s not so !

KickThemOut
Member
KickThemOut

Your engineering brilliance is simply astounding… keep it up moron!

Abdul Lahazi
Guest
Abdul Lahazi

I didn’t say it, it was stated in the article.

KickThemOut
Member
KickThemOut

In 20 years, would you have a choice? Yes, you would if you don’t mind paying 2x the price!

Best place on meth
Member
Best place on meth

I would pay 10X the price NOT to fly on that chinese piece of shit.

Any airline that buys it will be avoided at all costs.

Abdul Lahazi
Guest
Abdul Lahazi
Abdul Lahazi
Guest
Abdul Lahazi
bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

OSFI tightens rules on uninsured mortgages
http://business.financialpost.com/personal-finance/mortgages-real-estate/osfi-tightens-rules-on-uninsured-mortgages/wcm/f54632d5-54e1-4139-b2b3-bf9ad058f401

OSFI proposals would require stress tests to qualify for all uninsured mortgages, and would make the qualifying rate for them the contract rate plus two per cent

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

All hot air. Lots of loopholes will be in final bill.

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

Chinese investors ‘lack patience’ for Canadian infrastructure regulations
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/chinese-investors-lack-patience-for-canadian-infrastructure-regulations-envoy/article35585869/

>>> truly stomach churning…

Abdul Lahazi
Guest
Abdul Lahazi

Thanks for posting this, I read it earlier and couldn’t find the link. What an attitude these Chinese have with their impatient get-rich-quick mentality.

Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

Canadians have primarily been responsible for one of the largest speculative asset bubbles in the country’s history and you accuse the foreigners of looking for easy money?

Abdul Lahazi
Guest
Abdul Lahazi

Canadians don’t need their kind of investment.

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

Yup. The politicians and bureaucrats have made millions in heir foundations and offshore accounts.

KickThemOut
Member
KickThemOut

Damn right! Canada got the latest best newest high tech infrastructure and we don’t need any get rich fraudsters here. Especially if they are going to steal our world class skytrain system, Go Train technology, and bridge & highway construction techniques, not to mention our world class planning and cost control methods.
Can you imagine if China decides to build a rail link between Beijing and HK at a low cost of $1B per km and a rate of 3KM tracks per year? That would totally turbo charge their economy and their ability to crank out more military hardware to challenge US in South China Sea.

Abdul Lahazi
Guest
Abdul Lahazi

Canadian stuff doesn’t collapse.

Dave
Member
I think they’re right. We’re a terrible place to invest in infrastructure. We have very little certainty in process and outcome. Look at Kinder Morgan. It took years for them to get approvals and they still risk losing the project because the new Provincial government is threatening to tie them up in the Courts. Look at the Port Mann bridge. The NDP threw the whole P3 approach under the bus and the Liberals were quick to follow just to keep power. Look at the Canada Line. It was on the books for a couple decades and local infighting between mayors and the Province put the project on ice. Look at Site C. Construction is already under way and it’s still not a given. Look at any resource project. You have to bribe dozens of First Nations and even if you… Read more »
Abdul Lahazi
Guest
Abdul Lahazi

KM and Site C are political footballs so of course they are lagging. Both of these are hugely unpopular projects and rightly so. I do agree with your assessment of the FN holding us up for ransom.

KickThemOut
Member
KickThemOut

Yeah, who needs more renewable hydro power anyways. We got too much power already anyways.

Abdul Lahazi
Guest
Abdul Lahazi

Do you know anything about Site C ? It doesn’t sound like you do.

patriotz
Member

“Look at the Canada Line. It was on the books for a couple decades”

The provincial government has the power to fund and build rapid transit unilaterally, which is just what it did with the Seabus, the original Skytrain, and the West Coast Express. The delays on other projects are the result of buck-passing from the provincial government to the municipalities. The former wanted to make all the big decisions and use the latter as tax collectors. The provincial government can go back to unilateral funding and decision making any time it wants, or turn both over to the region.

patriotz
Member

I should add the other factor holding up rapid transit on the West Side was that the Socreds/Liberals did not want to offend their own voters. That’s why the Canada line went underground at huge cost when there was no need for it. When the Skytrain was built CoV asked that the section between Broadway and the Commercial/Victoria elbow (only) be put underground and the Socreds told the City and residents too bad.

YVR
Guest
YVR

“That’s why the Canada line went underground at huge cost when there was no need for it. ”

No need? Skytrain above ground is a noisy eye sore which destroys a neighborhood. It should go under ground in any high density area. Cambie Village would be a disaster with an above ground Skytrain running through the middle of it.

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

I truly feel sorry for you Caucasians.

You have no idea what’s coming once “we” south Asians and Asians have majority here. “We” will then expect your kids to conform to “our” customs. Lol

That’s the truth. Dog on the menu? Why not if cow is?

Best place on meth
Member
Best place on meth

What are you talking about?

Indians who come here adopt our culture and become proud Canadians, as proud as any others.

Unlike the Ferrari drivers.

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

Buyers prepare: Ottawa real estate market expecting steady growth
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/ottawa/real-estate-ottawa-sellers-1.4193916

“Military tactics are like unto water; for water in its natural course runs away from high places and hastens downwards.
Water shapes its course according to the nature of the ground over which it flows; the soldier works out his victory in relation to the foe whom he is facing. Therefore, just as water retains no constant shape, so in warfare there are no constant conditions.”

– Sun Tzu ~ Art of War

KickThemOut
Member
KickThemOut

Why are you quoting a fucking locust traitor?! That fucker probably likes bear paws and gall bladder.

Just me
Guest
Just me

Reposting from previous thread.
China Rewrites Rulebook on Capital Flows After Crisis Lessons

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-07-06/china-rewrites-rulebook-on-capital-flows-after-crisis-lessons

‘Asymmetric’ capital opening encourages inflows, not outflows
Approach will probably continue in coming years, Nomura says

KickThemOut
Member
KickThemOut

Already posted it yesterday, keep up moron.

Combat roach
Guest
Combat roach

Oh, the irony… spaceshit calling someone “moron”.

KickThemOut
Member
KickThemOut

Can’t believe no one posted this earth shattering news item yet.

http://dailyhive.com/vancouver/mayor-gregor-robertson-wanting-qu-break-up

Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

Posted yesterday. Keep up.

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

next up, she’s gonna figure out a way to break into trudeau’s inner circle as mayor moonbeam was unable to solve her precious mama’s little dilemna. gosh, we all know he was never playing with a full deck, but it is clear as day this was the reason they hooked up in the first place.

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

That’s fake news. This has makings of a special deal for mom. Story so no conflict of interest.

KickThemOut
Member
KickThemOut

So, final count is in! 17 condos, 3 TH, and 2 SFH bought on the Canada Day long weekend Victoria tour. 7 mainlanders participated and a good time was had by all. Already there are plans to flip, luxury vacation rentals, and such. The ones they plan to hold will be funded by selling Vancouver properties. Given talks about visiting wineries and other trips, wouldn’t be surprised that Kelowna and Banff will be on the shopping list soon.

Also, Coquitlam, Maple Ridge, Mission are also being name dropped in conversations now because SFH house is still cheap there and skytrain line will be extended.

Abdul Lahazi
Guest
Abdul Lahazi

Your point being that these are sucker Chineze who paid too much?

KickThemOut
Member
KickThemOut

You are being outbid and condemn to renting forever, and that’s the best you can come up with?

Seriously, consider following Omar Kadar’s footsteps. You will be able to buy your SFH much quicker that way. Plus, it’s right up your alley anyways.

Abdul Lahazi
Guest
Abdul Lahazi

I doubt anyone believes anything you type anyways. No me that’s for sure.

best place on earth
Guest
best place on earth

BC unemployment rate’s at 5.1%, the lowest in Canada, thank to Liberal. The NDP is gonna to destroy it; it just feels like the scary red is invading victoria comes July 18.

KickThemOut
Member
KickThemOut

It’s the will of the people apparently…unless you don’t believe in democracy.
What did Liberal do anyways that lowered unemployment? All that LNG infrastructure building?

best place on earth
Guest
best place on earth

wrong. it’s not the will of the people. it’s the will of the two old men getting in bed together.

patriotz
Member

“BC unemployment rate’s at 5.1%, the lowest in Canada, thank to Liberal.”

What matters is the % of adults working full time jobs that pay well. Someone working part time at Starbucks isn’t counted as unemployed but might as well be.

Doomcouver
Guest
Doomcouver

Unemployment is artificially lower due to the housing mania. There’s a lot of 2nd-rate realtors, bankers, and construction workers that are going to get tossed out of the jobs market in the downturn.

The Liberals had a great opportunity to protect residents, but instead sat back and lined their pockets with easy money. When you’re unemployed, the NDP won’t be to blame, it’s the fact the Liberals didn’t diversify our economy by squashing the property bubble when they had the chance.

Hyper-mega-Bull
Member
Hyper-mega-Bull

U.S. bombers challenge China in South China Sea flyover

* Two B-1B bombers flew from Guam over the South China Sea

* Bombers conducted night-time training with Japanese fighters

* Flight comes ahead of expected meeting between Trump and Xi (Adds ministry comment, previous TOKYO)

http://news.trust.org/item/20170707063040-qwkw2

KickThemOut
Member
KickThemOut

Trump knows how to show them who’s the boss. And Japan is itching to reassert its rightful place as Asia’s leader. It worked out wonderful all concerned last time and Trump and Abe are looking to make Asia great again. Everyone, except China is cheering them on. Canada better get involved or else risk getting left out.

Hyper-mega-Bull
Member
Hyper-mega-Bull

How to Be a Buddhist in Today’s World

By The Dalai Lama

https://www.wsj.com/articles/how-to-be-a-buddhist-in-todays-world-1499381040

KickThemOut
Member
KickThemOut

1 – Own slaves
2 – Believe in reincarnation
3 – Believe in divine right to rule over serfs and punish as you see fit
4 – Dress up, keep everyone else poor so everything is all peaceful, serene and Shangri-La
5 – Get funding and professional marketing from CIA
6 – Claim you believe in democracy and human rights

btw, where can I get some of those Tibet human bone instruments and souvenirs?

KickThemOut
Member
KickThemOut

Fucking commie lovers – Penn & Teller – why are they not kicked out of USA?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fYEOSCIOnrs

Bear Vancouverite
Member
Bear Vancouverite

admin – surely KickThemOut is contributing zero to the discussion and should be removed from the site?

best place on earth
Guest
best place on earth

why? kickthemout is a clown and it’s entertaining. do you tell you mom every thing?

Best place on meth
Member
Best place on meth

Yes, his bitterness and rage against westerners for the lack of respect showed to his beloved motherland is entertaining indeed.

Hyper-mega-Bull
Member
Hyper-mega-Bull
Oracle
Guest
Oracle

NDP has just promised to bring prices back to July 2017 levels after they resume legislature in Sept and study the housing crisis.

paulb
Member

Last 2 days
New
387
Price Change
82
Sold
273
TI:9404

Just listed! Amazing views in Upper Delbrook https://youtu.be/0dC1GnRcHzk

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

Funny how some here blame immigrants for the mess. It’s mostly causcasians that should be to blame. They are the politicians and bureaucrats.

The NDP will be sitting on its ass for 5 months before it sits. And they had 16 years to prepare.

Just me
Guest
Just me
YVR
Guest
YVR

But these jobs are for positions we have a shortage of ‘skilled’ workers for. We need those hard to find comedians and photographers.

the federal government insists on listing an unusually large number of job categories it claims need to be filled under its “express entry” program.

The Canada National Occupation Classification List shows Ottawa is keen to offer a wide range of work permits to migrants, including health managers, photographers, computer technicians, journalists, comedians and fishermen/women

Just me
Guest
Just me

The purchasing power of the Chinese Yuan in Vancouver is decreasing fast.

https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/CNYCAD:CUR

Poloz and his band devalued the CAD for the past 4 years. Now the tide is changing. Fast.

would-be buyer
Guest
would-be buyer
The thing that bugs me about these regulatory changes is that I think “awesome, no CMHC backed insurance for properties over $1M, this should tank the market!” Nope. Prices have increased at least 30% since 2012. Now, OSFI wants to “stress test” all mortgages. Will this make a difference? I don’t think so. Not until banks loan on Canadian income, will these changes have any meaning. In the meantime, more and more Canadians are shut out of property ownership by these onerous regulatory changes – my family included. My family income is very good and well over $200K, but we don’t have liquid assets (unless I want to pay capital gains) to make the 20% down payment to buy a $1M+ home. I was actually thinking of borrowing the 20% down payment to buy a SFH, but now the OSFI… Read more »
Bear Vancouverite
Member
Bear Vancouverite
You’re post mixes up a lot of things so I wanted to clarify for you and anyone who reads your post: 1) Prices have more than increased by 30% since 2012, they have increased by 30% since 2014. I imported some of the list prices today, and sales data from 2014, and it would take at least a 30% drop from today’s list to reach the sales prices of 2014. 2) CMHC’s new rules went into effect last year, so looking at price increases since 2012 or 2014 makes no sense. Since the CMHC rules came into effect the high end market has definitely stalled in Vancouver. Look at zolo stats to see that Detached house sales averages have dropped by around 20-26% since the same time last year for under $4M homes. 3) The CMHC rules are quite effective.… Read more »
would-be buyer
Guest
would-be buyer
Why am I a risk? My family income is 3x the average Vancouver household income, yet we are barred from buying due to regulatory restrictions. I have friends and family who bought pre-2014 with 5% down on $1M+ homes and now they are RICH. My brother bought a house in 2010 for $950K with 5% down now worth over $2M. My colleague bought a $1.3M house in 2012 with 5% down now worth almost $3M on the north shore. Why am I more of a risk then them, who are now millionaires? I am the foolish prudent one who didn’t leverage and buy in when I could have at 0 or 5% down. I now understand that leverage is king. If this market doesn’t correct under the NDP, I am going to LEVERAGE THE FUCK and be rich like everyone… Read more »
ostritch
Member
ostritch

At 200,000 income and your hands tied as to how you want to finance it while money continues to pour in from abroad, you are a victim of political correctness. That’s all. Canadian are seen as the risk because they cannot earn enough to compete with foreign money. The country is set up to sell off resources and that it. That’s all we do and all we’ve ever done. Real estate and education are BCs two major resources when commodities are off

ostritch
Member
ostritch

Our place up 60% since August 2014. So 30% must include Fort St John or something because the local market here for condos and townhouses is nuts.

ostritch
Member
ostritch

A local paying capital gains to get a deposit for an astronomically-priced home is exactly what shouldn’t happen. It would have been in our best interest to let Canadians save as much as possible for retirement but no, they have to go whole hog to complete with foreign non-taxed money pouring in. Better to have stopped the rape of real estate after the Hong Kong price run up. But our leaders both NDP and LIberal had no idea how to do it.

YVR
Guest
YVR

Now, OSFI wants to “stress test” all mortgages. Will this make a difference? I don’t think so. Not until banks loan on Canadian income

The point of the stress test is to loan against income. Income must be verifiable which is probably not what most from China will be willing to do otherwise they could face income taxes in Canada. They with either have to pay 100% cash or go elsewhere.

Just me
Guest
Just me

The question is: will the bank be willing to do it anyway upon receipt of a large enough down payment? There is no rule in OSFI regulations that can stop banks from striking private deals if the down payment is large enough.

YVR
Guest
YVR

“There is no rule in OSFI regulations that can stop banks from striking private deals if the down payment is large enough.”

Umm, yes that is the point of regulating banks. They must follow rules set by OSFI. This will be a new rule that will prevent mortgages without adequate income. Unless they put in some loophole for foreigners or new Canadians.

Just me
Guest
Just me

I hope you are right. I suspect you are not.

southseacompany
Member
southseacompany

“BC Liberals’ Home Loans a Risk For ‘Most Vulnerable,’ Said CMHC”, The Tyee

https://thetyee.ca/News/2017/07/07/CMHC-Refused-BC-on-Home-Loans/

“Canada’s housing agency refused a B.C. government request to waive some mortgage rules for first time homebuyers, saying the province shouldn’t “lure the most vulnerable Canadians” into the Vancouver housing market, newly released documents show.”

Just me
Guest
Just me

MS Christy Clark for you. Help to buy? More like help to support prices.
Christy must win, damn everyone else.

Just me
Guest
Just me

Excerpt from the Tyee article.

Programs that encourage demand will push home prices higher, the CMHC response said. “I would therefore urge you to reconsider policies that lure the most vulnerable Canadians into increasing their exposure to the Vancouver housing market.”

Despite the CMHC’s concerns and refusal to make exceptions to mortgage rules, B.C. proceeded with the program, announcing it on Dec. 15. At the time, the CMHC’s public comments expressed concern about the program without directly condemning it.

The Tyee reported in May that Siddall wrote to a BC Housing official a few days after the announcement saying, “You will know we are holding our noses firmly on this and I would not want any other [provinces and territories] to be misled into thinking this ill-advised program represents good public policy.”

YVR
Guest
YVR

“Programs that encourage demand will push home prices higher”

Yup and once David Eby expands the first time buyers program as he promised things will get worse. Unless he breaks that election promise like he did with the 2% speculators tax. I guess it will be up to the ‘experts’ who advise him like Cameron Muir.

Just me
Guest
Just me

Wait before you judge. You might be surprised.

Things will have to change from what was the pro-housing rule under Christy Clark. The question is by how much will they be willing to change.

There are a lot of votes (younger voters replacing older ones) in reducing house prices.

YVR
Guest
YVR

Housing prices are not about what people want housing prices to be. It is about keeping the economy going so people keep their jobs and tax revenue continues so the government can implement it’s agenda. The NDP knows if housing prices go down everything else goes down with it. They will try just as hard as the Liberals to prop it up. Anything they do will be programs that are counter productive but are spun as helping people afford housing. You are naive.

Just me
Guest
Just me

You mean John Horgan will take suitcases of cash from developers, just like “you-know-who”?

southseacompany
Member
southseacompany

More banks following RBC lead;

“BMO, CIBC boost rates on mortgages ahead of expected BoC rate hike”, Globe & Mail

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/bmo-cibc-boost-rates-on-mortgages-ahead-of-expected-boc-rate-hike/article35618163/

“Bank of Montreal has boosted rates on some popular mortgages and Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce is following suit as anticipation builds that the country’s central bank will likely raise its benchmark interest rate next week.”

LS in Arbutus
Guest
LS in Arbutus

The 5 year bond yield’s increased by 50 bps from approx 1% to approx 1.5% in the past 2 months. So the market has already priced in 2 rate increases.

http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/bond/tmbmkca-05y/charts?countrycode=bx

Bear Vancouverite
Member
Bear Vancouverite
If interest rates go up 2 times this year it will return to 1%, the same as between 2011 to 2014. Prices today in Vancouver (not GV but Vancouver itself) will have to drop at least 30% from today’s list to reach the 2014 sales prices. Will interest rate resetting to 2014 levels itself be enough to roll housing back prices to 2014 levels? And will the OSFI proposal of a stress test at qualified rate +2% further roll it back? Presumably that would be as if rates were at 3%, which was the level last seen in 2009 when prices were much more reasonable (by today’s standards… sadly many bears here since 2008 would consider 2008-2009 levels still over inflated). I guess my question is whether you guys think the interest rates alone at 1% could depress prices back… Read more »
Just me
Guest
Just me
Rule of thumb: every 1% extra (100 basis points) in mortgage rates implies a 5 to 15% drop in prices. So, a mortgage rate that is 3% (instead if the current 2.5%) would imply a price drop between 2.5 and 7.5%. OSFI regulation is not immediately comparable to interest rate, but let’s assume it adds a full percentage point to an average mortgage rate: the total effect of BoC tightening and OSFI measures might reach 22.5%. At most. Note that the speed of tightening also matters, as markets work on trends. The big question: what rates will bank be allowed (or be willing) to apply to oans to mainland China millionaire investors? The guys are solvent but have no declared income. It is easy money for banks because they get paid back (money materializes, tax free, out of thin air.… Read more »
YVR
Guest
YVR

Once things start to unravel the bottom is a long way down. When prices decline everything that propped up housing goes in the opposite direction including psychology.

oncebittwiceshy
Guest
oncebittwiceshy

You’re dead on YVR. In 1981/82 house prices certainly weren’t unwinding in an orderly fashion. I watched 5 “luxury” ranchers, in the Lower Mainland, drop in price from $144,000 to $78,000 within a year and a quarter.

The market down is driven by fear which is an even bigger motivator than greed.

Just me
Guest
Just me

In 1981/82 demand from mainland China was non-existent. I would be careful to draw analogies.
There will be an adjustment, but 50% down is ludicrous. I would love it but you need to be honest: at those prices Chinese would rake the deals in.

specuskeptic
Member

I guess this is where the rubber hits the road – a good test of the main hypotheses. If prices revert to the mean, the foreign money theory must not be true. If they don’t, foreign money will have to be considered. Pretty straightforward.

Just me
Guest
Just me

You talk as if there was an obvious metric one can use. What is the “mean”.

My money is on a maximum adjustment of roughly 30% in real terms (20% nominal and 10% more due to inflation). That would be already a massive shock, and it is not the most likely outcome. Chinese money is present in the market, despite the flat-earth deniers say it isn’t so.

specuskeptic
Member

“Chinese money is present in the market, despite the flat-earth deniers say it isn’t so.”

Strawman. Nobody is saying it’s not in the market. The issue is the degree to which it influences. That too is a nuanced question because that answer will vary from market to market – both in geography and in the 4mil SFH vs. 650k suburbia townhouse…
There’s more subtlety and nuance here than you’re acknowledging IMHO.

Just me
Guest
Just me

Of course it is nuanced.
But if I plug into a market 1 billion of extra liquidity each month, strange things happen. No matter how I feed that money into the system.
Denying that is either due to: (i) being blind; or (ii) being dishonest.

specuskeptic
Member

Show your work. Where do you get that 1 billion?

Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

Out of his ass.

Just me
Guest
Just me

http://vancouversun.com/news/local-news/foreign-buyers-in-metro-vancouver-twice-as-high-as-previously-thought

In Metro Vancouver, foreign citizens bought $885 million out of a total $8.8 billion in housing purchases in those five weeks, representing 10 per cent of purchases.

Wash your mouth before spouting insulting nonsense. I can accept someone is stupid, but I don’t condone impolite behavior.

specuskeptic
Member

Didn’t specify foreign money, just foreign nationals. I acknowledge that a portion of that $$ is likely foreign. It’s one of many factors. The foreign $$$ theory applies more to the LM than elsewhere, but the low interest rate theory explains the nation-wide bubble and multiple market bubbles much more broadly. Between foreign $$$ controls, FBT and recent OFSI adjustments, I’m confident most bases have been covered. Anyone on here selling popcorn futures?

Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

$880m is not $1bn, and either way it’s still an insignificant fraction on the market and broadly in line with figures already posted here stating as such.

10 percent might be twice as much as 5 percent, which sounds nice, but it’s still only 10 percent – leaving those greedy locals climbing over each other like rabid zombies trying to get rich quick in real estate.

So effectively you’re posting stats which defeat your own argument. Thanks.

ostritch
Member
ostritch

Nuance went out of style with the arrival of the mainlanders.

Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

Nobody says there’s no foreign money in the market, Mr Strawman.

ostritch
Member
ostritch

“…will have to be considered”. Hahaa. Is that some kind of intellectual pose? You’ll be “considering” it from your armchair in your analysis. Holy sh*t. You’ve learned nada.

specuskeptic
Member

Beats not considering and just reflexing or “feeling” as a few local turds seem to be.

Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

No matter what prices do there are some who will always find a reason to explain it away whilst maintaining that foreigners are to blame. They’ll pick from reasons such as capital controls loosening (and/or people working around them), immigration increasing (with a pinch of conspiracy theories about the official stats), random comments about depreciaing real estate still being a good “store of value” compared to the alternatives, vague assertions about cultural norms, and so on.

These xenophobes have an “out” for any conceivable scenario because their position is not one based in fact. It’s like debating those fuckwits who think religion is a field of science.

oncebittwiceshy
Guest
oncebittwiceshy
http://www.transunioninsights.ca/PaymentShockStudy/ Yes, the Chinese, Americans, “South Asians” and other foreign purchasers are present in the B.C. market. They don’t account for the extraordinary amount of debt in this province though. Canada was considered a safe haven during the GFC because they apparently had escaped the housing crisis that other countries dealt with. I didn’t see too many people flocking to Greece or Spain to buy their fire sale on homes and bonds. Once the news of the bubble bursting in the largest city in Canada becomes apparent then perhaps we aren’t that safe haven anymore. The reason that prices only dropped 50% in 1981 was because interest rates were dropping as well, finding a floor of affordability to the average person. It’s interesting that back then, during the run up in prices for homes, the big Real Estate scare was… Read more »
ostritch
Member
ostritch
Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

Yes, those stupid foreign people loving to buy rapidly depreciating assets. Amiright?

ostritch
Member
ostritch

How much money has left China, Iran, Brazil, Saudi and Russia since 2009? Do you think it’s going back there?

Abdul Lahazi
Guest
Abdul Lahazi

Chineze mother driving Lexus leaves her kids in a hot car. Police were eventually called:

http://globalnews.ca/video/3583649/witnesses-stop-mother-who-left-kids-in-hot-car-in-vancouver-parking-lot/?utm_source=Article&utm_medium=MostPopularVideo&utm_campaign=2017

How much dumber can these people get?

Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

“These people” aren’t the only ones leaving their kids in cars, dumbass.

squeak
Member
squeak
As it is free Friday: What is more disturbing is the body language of the mother and no verbal response. The body language has a standoffish stance, no movement showing any reaction to what is being communicated to her. Which is not sending a positive message at all. I don’t see any sign of regret, apology, or even an effort to take any ownership. The cherry on the cake is that the mother was driving a luxury car. Not pretty. The cost of this serious error could have cost the tax payers even more, should the children have to be taken to the hospital ER. I conclude these children were born in Canada. Disturbing as this is another expense to the tax payers: ambulance, fire department, police resources wasted and another item on the plate for the social ministry that… Read more »
Kim
Guest
Kim

The luxury car is an old model lexus. Fucking wannabe.

squeak
Member
squeak

Oh. I guess I don’t pay much attention to these kind of things.

Combat roach
Guest
Combat roach

Mother should be taken to asylum and get examined. She appears to be heavily retarded and not getting what has happened at all.

Best place on meth
Member
Best place on meth

Not a mainlander.

They will not buy a Lexus due to their hatred of the Japanese.

Hyper-mega-Bull
Member
Hyper-mega-Bull

Yes its true that mainlanders have less favorable view of Japanese especially when compared to HK immigrants who worshipped Japanese stuff. And mainlanders will buy American Cars and trucks. Something which I have e never seen a HK immigrants do.

But you can’t assume that because someone has a Japanese car that they aren’t mainlander. I know mainlanders who own Japanese cars.

ostritch
Member
ostritch

What a typical BC overreaction. From the nosy do-gooder fatsos to the priced out cops, they’re just mad because this woman doesn’t care what the local yokels have to say about parenting. Who the f decided to send 2 police cars, an ambulance AND a fire truck? It was 24 degrees out that day and she was gone a whole 20 minutes with the sunroof open. This is anti-HAM anger. After denying it for years the dolts in this city have finally realized what they’ve given away.

Just me
Guest
Just me

I just knew that some moron would play the race card about this.

Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

Abdul played the first card, I think you’ll find.

Hyper-mega-Bull
Member
Hyper-mega-Bull

the video was original posted with the title “sum ting wong”

Hyper-mega-Bull
Member
Hyper-mega-Bull

on to facebook by the person who shot it, i should add.

specuskeptic
Member

That “Sum Ting Wong” is some busy. After crashing planes, they’re suffocating children. That whole video reeked of overreaction. So many busybodies around shooting for their own personal fame.

Bear Vancouverite
Member
Bear Vancouverite

Hey Just Me:

When I ask some realtors whether they think the Vancouver market can crash they always tell me that it’s impossible because foreign investors would support the market and buy everything, so it sounds like you have a lot more in common with realtors than you think.

In fact, you kinda sound like Oracle too with his thesis that immigrants will buy everything as the market crashes.

I think we all know that if the market starts crashing then everyone will want to get out, including foreign investors, and my experience is that Asian speculators, especially the “mom and pop” ones with poor financial literacy will panic more than you’d think. The fear of losing money in bad investments is very strong in Chinese pop culture.

Just me
Guest
Just me
I do not believe the market will never crash because of Chinese mainlanders. We discussed the magnitude of the adjustment, and I simply noted that a 50% crash would be harder to observe because historical circumstances have changed. Indeed, cash flows from Asia now play a much more important role. Many mom-and-pop investors would bail, but there are quite a few others who would see an opportunity. I do not subscribe to the view that the market will not adjust. I am making a statement about magnitudes. Of course, there is a scenario in which our politicians finally decide to curb significantly the flows of illegal money being invested in our RE market. That would be a game changer. But I give it a 30% chance at most. For the record, I still believe this market will adjust downwards (in… Read more »
oncebittwiceshy
Guest
oncebittwiceshy
There will be two big challenges with real estate moving forward after a major crash/correction. The number one issue will be credit. I’m pretty darn sure that the banks will get burned to a certain degree but not nearly as much as the Credit Unions. Tightening of credit will severely curtail lending for everyone. Those marginal players will undoubtedly be excluded. http://vancitycondoguide.com/more-stress-testing-proposed-for-canadian-mortgages/ “The number of uninsured mortgages surged after October, 2016 when the Government introduced a stress targeting insured mortgages (less than 20%). Borrowers and lenders then got creative to avoid the stress test, bundling loans from different sources to get the borrowers down payment up to 20% and thus avoiding the stress test of 4.64%.” The number two issue will be buyers. Foreign buyers came here because of price appreciation and “safe haven” status. That changes in a heartbeat… Read more »
bestplaceonearth
Guest
bestplaceonearth

Many bears predicted this , for the record, as well, in the past ten years. and the more bears predict, the further prices run away from them. They are now even priced out of Surrey townhouses and condos, not to mention anything in Vancouver. So yeah, for the record, your prediction was taken noticed with half a grain of salt.
Decades from now, you would be posting the same things, except from a elderly care facility, with your thumbs trembling on the ipad. Isn’t that sad!
You should go talk to Owen Bigland and Angela Carla, these people can help to turn your life around as it’s too dark right now.

oncebittwiceshy
Guest
oncebittwiceshy

Lol, bpoe. I am already that old man. You see, when you don’t have any skin in the game it’s very easy to see the bigger picture.

Your inability to see what’s in front of you smacks of the same confirmation bias that the bears sought out the last several years.

I’m retired and renting comfortably after selling an overpriced sfh. I have no desire to buy back in because we have downsized and are just enjoying life now.

I have the spare time to impart, at least, what I think is wisdom because everyone is going to suffer from this crash. If you aren’t part of the solution, you’re part of the problem.

Good luck.

bestplaceonearth
Guest
bestplaceonearth

none of us is part of solution, and all of us are part of the problem. bulls and bears all have vetted interest in the market. some people have the “ability” to see the crash so far ahead, they sold and could not buy back in. the condo segment even prized out people downsized a few years ago. good luck with your retirement, and hope that your earned interest keeps up with rental increases.

oncebittwiceshy
Guest
oncebittwiceshy

Thank you, BPOE for your sincere good wishes.

The last bit of advice that I will give, in this regard, will be that it is always better to be early when you’re selling.

Even if you are upgrading or downsizing. I would rather be 2 yrs. early than 6 months late.

When the dynamic changes it is dramatic … as people will learn.

Confucius
Guest
Confucius

http://www.news.com.au/finance/economy/world-economy/its-too-late-seven-signs-australia-cant-avoid-economic-apocalypse/news-story/adb1b93996d48e875abd3877ddde5e24

Australians shouldn’t worry about this and should instead focus on buying more houses. We have a lot of parallels in our economy so we should ignore articles like this and head to the nearest open house and buy buy buy.

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