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Good time to be sitting on a $800k down payment

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102 Comments

With interest rates going up there’s good news and bad news for housing. It can make it tough for people who are stretched thin financially, but might be good news for people waiting to buy:

The people who will benefit are those who have a nest egg and have been waiting for the right time to buy a home, he said.

“The real winner here is somebody sitting on a $800,000 down payment who says I’m going to wait for prices to fall.”

Overall, interest rates will continue to rise, added Brander. He predicts mortgage-lending rates could increase by several percentage points in the coming years. But as long as those increases are incremental, like Wednesday’s announcement, the economy will be able to absorb it, he said.

Seems like it’s always a good time to be sitting on an $800k down payment, but maybe we’re just optimists. Read the full article here.

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[…] –IMF: Canada at huge risk –The end of the boom? –Lifting the veil on corp owners –October rate hike? –1/3 money in Toronto market gone –Foreigners (Canadians) pump up US prices – […]

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southseacompany

“IMF Warning : Canada at risk,Massive Housing Bubble and Huge Debt “, BNN video

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3NBlw60V4fg

“IMF urges BoC to be cautious on rate hikes; warns on housing, trade. Cheng Hoon Lim, assistant director at the IMF’s Western Hemisphere Department, joins BNN to talk about the latest IMF report warning Canada on housing, trade and rate hikes.”

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southseacompany

“In British Columbia, real estate investors need to seek shelter”, Globe & Mail

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/in-british-columbia-real-estate-investors-need-to-seek-shelter/article35688341/

“It’s always financially better for someone to own their primary residence, over the long term. A home is shelter and the need for one is usually enough to ride out market instability. But for investors, selling high is always the priority. And in my opinion, prices are not going any higher, the never-ending surge is about to end. The perfect storm is brewing, and it’s time to seek shelter.”

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realist

From the above article: “the time is now to cash out. If you are over exposed, seek shelter now.”

The author is Barry Magee, a realtor with Macdonald Realty. Obviously he is trolling for listings, but perhaps these views are entirely sincerely held, and maybe even correct.

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southseacompany

“Bank of Canada to hike in October as it charts slow path higher: Reuters poll”, Reuters

http://ca.reuters.com/article/businessNews/idCAKBN19Y2UW-OCABS

“The Bank of Canada will follow up its first interest rate hike in seven years with another increase in October as it charts a course of gradual tightening, with two more hikes expected next year, according to a Reuters poll of primary dealers.”

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southseacompany

“Housing Correction May Come With Next Bank of Canada Hike”, BNN video

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2017-07-14/housing-correction-may-come-with-next-bank-of-canada-hike

“John Andrew, professor at Queen’s University, joins Bloomberg TV Canada’s Lily Jamali to discuss the impact of rising rates on Canada’s red-hot housing markets. ‘

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Shut It Down Already

Dumbass racist regrets getting caught being an uneducated moron:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-40602926

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Abdul Lahazi

“No matter how well I treat others, it doesn’t matter. If you’re Asian, you’re less than human. People can treat you like trash.”

She should move to Canada and then she can get whatever she wants at the expense of real Canadians.

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Best place on meth

What a drama queen.

One person is a jerk to her and all of a sudden ALL Asians are “less than human” to everyone.

Quick, somebody get her $10 million for her troubles. She deserves it.

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history

try being courteous to an asian in Vic, gets you nowhere. Japan felt the same way in 1930s. it’s fukin hopeless, only a severe coming down is gonna solve this mess.

i would go long debtors prisons, if i knew how. Maybe a hedgefund algo reading this post can crypto write a story in the mop and pail Refuting the possibility, confirmed by MacLeans refuting the possibility, and reconfirmed by other MSM retards, further Refuting the possibility.

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Shut It Down Already

What’s a real Canadian then?

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history

Canada was born with Sedna at 0 degrees Aries. It celebrated its 100th birthday with Sedna at 0 degrees Taurus. Since Sedna is highly elliptic it speeds through Aries, Taurus, and Gemini, relatively quickly. When this planet was discovered in 2003, the astrophysists ran the ephemeris to discover this remarkable pattern. Thus Sedna was given an Inuit mythology.

your welcome

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Abdul Lahazi

Not someone with PR they are not citizens.

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bullwhip29

Central Saanich woman awarded $110,000 after neighbour builds house blocking her views
http://vancouversun.com/news/local-news/central-saanich-woman-awarded-110000-after-neighbour-builds-house-blocking-her-views

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bullwhip29

it’s comical that if the situation was reversed (as is the case all over gr vanc and elsewhere) nothing would have been done even if the newly constructed home pushed the limits of what is allowable

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Shut It Down Already

Reversed how?

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history

Capricorn is the sign of reversal, dumbass

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Shut It Down Already

Suggest you open the window in your van for a few minutes.

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Abdul Lahazi

Typical uncooperative Chineze. All kinds of excuses made by her when all reasonable attempts were made by Canadians to get her approval. What a ridiculous judgement.

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Best place on meth

“Central Saanich woman”

Reporter spelled “chinawoman” incorrectly.

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Shut It Down Already

Trying to circumvent admin’s filters should come with an IP ban.

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bullwhip29

Grouse Mountain to be sold to a Chinese investor
http://vancouversun.com/news/local-news/grouse-mountain-will-be-sold-to-a-chinese-investor-report

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Abdul Lahazi

So the sellout continues. I’m sure the McLaughlin family don’t see themselves as traitors to Canada.

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Best place on meth

Sino-trash will be developing a military installation on the mountain as soon as they take possession.

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history

just tells you who is going up Grouse now. Tour operators and owners up the wahoo in debt from years of leisure lifestyle, and now they need the cash for helocs they havent paid principal on in 15 years.

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best place on earth

i dont know who is going up there. but i do know, the ones that are envy and hate the rich won’t.

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bullwhip29

Richmond sign advertises for ‘Chinese’ sales person
http://vancouversun.com/news/local-news/richmond-sign-seeking-chinese-sales-person-sparks-debate

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Best place on meth

I hope they actually meant “chinese speaking person”.

If not, shut them down.

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history

labour shortage knows no ethnic distinction.

Leisure class, are you one of them, or are you not? FIRE needs exploitive labour or it crashes hard.

Besides myself i count No One posting at VCI in my working class category.

Maybe one or two who are Soros supported rapefugees, then they live in the basement of the Anglican church ladies. Other TFWs are living 10 per flat in REITapartments, managed by globalsits. But do they post here? i doubt it.

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Abdul Lahazi

Good article. Poloz is an incompetent idiot. He has cost us all a lot.

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Best place on meth

Because of that moron, we’re paying more for food, gas and housing, the things we need the most.

Just so we could sell 2% more of…..what exactly?

Poloz is the dumbest central banker in the history of central banking.

“I could raise interest rates by 5% and it wouldn’t have any effect on the real estate market”.

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Shut It Down Already

You’re way smarter than him, naturally…

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Bestplaceonearth

So you are smart? Why not run for office and change lives? Sitting on your McDonald arses whining is the best you can do?

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Best place on meth

Great arguments from a pair of idiots even lower on the intelligence scale than Poloz.

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Shut It Down Already

You should stand for office if only so you can find out how the majority of people find your point of view disgusting and toxic. You don’t seem aware of this so far, genius.

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best place on earth

you are so smart, why are you still paying rents instead of collecting them?

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Oracle

Sitting on a big nest egg. But this market all foreign $$$ now. $800K detached in Abby now? Wtf?

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Abdul Lahazi

Wait 2 years and it’ll be $400K

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history

yup, all foreign specs. Please thank your relatives for paying my wages while i work on their empty Vic flip.

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Oracle

Noticing detached going up in Valley while going down in Vancouver.

Land grab??

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history

gas bag rhymes with land grab

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Oh NO

Anyone know what 1361 Crestlawn Drive Burnaby just sold at?

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Shut It Down Already

People here don’t do data.

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realist

I’m one of the “people here”, and I “do data”, as do others who comment here. If you hold the opinion you express, why are you here?

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Kim

https://www.zolo.ca/vancouver-real-estate/6290-ash-street

Been watching this one for a while. Sign has been posted for a re-zoning into 7 townhomes. Approved by the city and now developer getting desperate to sell for some reason.

reduced from 5.88 to 5.499 now.

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Just me

…and real estate transaction prices steadily sinking in Vancouver.

https://www.zolo.ca/vancouver-real-estate/trends

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Just me

Canadian yields spiking

http://www.bankofcanada.ca/rates/interest-rates/canadian-bonds/

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bullwhip29

IMF cautions Bank of Canada against tightening a day after it raised the rate
http://business.financialpost.com/news/economy/imf-warns-canada-on-housing-trade-urges-caution-on-rate-hikes/wcm/4c8fa903-dc1a-4e5a-99a9-5b6ec806708c

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Hyper-mega-Bull

“The real winner here is somebody sitting on a $800,000 down payment who says I’m going to wait for prices to fall.”

lol. you guys missed the boat.

prices can fall 50% and you would still won’t be able to afford a house.

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history

untold thousands got to Canada by boat. My parents were two. I avoided house buying because employment was scarce. People like me were rewarded for creating money via debt. My personal stars prohibited this, and i live in an automobile today.

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Best place on meth

At least you’re living down by the river, so …..there’s fishing, I guess.

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history

yup, and throwing darts at those ottawa sniveller HOG enablers, and their sellout of the savers and workers, their championing of captured organised religion to serve Soros refugee invasion. Throwing darts at the exploitation of my social capital to serve housing debt pigs.. i could go on, but .. lets just say Traitorz need to swing on lamposts

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Sebastien

What if they fall more than 50%? Let’s say 80%?

It happened in Vegas, Phoenix, Riverside CA and Reno.

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SpacedOut

I’ll tell ya what happens. I’ll buy three and my wife will buy three.

At a 500x rent multiplier (I’m around 450x and probably paying under market rent), I figure you see support around 60% off, unless interest rates go on a run.

When it happens it will absolutely gut the economy as access to credit gets wiped out and people that plan to actually pay their debts start throwing as much as they can at them. Hard to root for it, but we’ll be better when the cancer is removed (assuming we survive the surgery).

Get long on food, water, gold and guns. I can this going sideways. The can is starting to fall apart.

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Abdul Lahazi

B.C. Real Estate Association says June sales still far above 10-year-average:
https://app.tmxmoney.com/news/cpnews/article?locale=EN&newsid=VDB130831&mobile=false

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Dave

We’ll be using the 20 year average soon.

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Shut It Down Already

Because pretty soon the GFC fallout won’t be present in the 10 year data?

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Abdul Lahazi

Question:
Would dividend income earned in a non-registered investment account be included in income to qualify for a mortgage?

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Dave

Who cares when you have $800k down?

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Abdul Lahazi

So you are saying I would have to liquidate it and take the capital gains?

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Best place on meth

Dividends can be suspended or slashed at any time, so if wouldn’t make sense to include them as income.

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Abdul Lahazi

I am more at risk of losing my job than I am of any divs. being suspended or cut with the companies I have shares in.

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KickThemOut

As long as it is Sharia compliant, I don’t see why not?!

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Abdul Lahazi

LOL that is a good one !

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Best place on meth

He wasn’t trying to be funny.

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history

or Shadow lender compliant, as the case may be. Know one really knows why Chinese tier 1 cities have the highest ratio income/ price ratio in the world.

https://www.numbeo.com/property-investment/rankings_current.jsp

hyper refinancing in these markets and funnelling the cash for global RE spec – gambling is my guess. Could be just plain old greed or a deep state initiative.. or just whats presented in the Proc stars.

that english language forums are polluted with Proc apologists is also telling.

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BubbleTea

Wonder why the Chinese are buying everything around the world… ” World’s biggest “money printing machine”. China has been steadily adding US$1.9 trillion each year since 2009.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-02-08/china-accounts-nearly-half-worlds-new-money-supply
And they are buying our hard assets with their worthless, newly printed money. Wake up world!

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Abdul Lahazi

Buy us out with their worthless money. This is how they plan to take over the west. I don’t know why most people can’t understand this. This is why I continue to say they (mainlanders) should be completely banned from Canada.

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KickThemOut

So how much is your money worth?

But yes, let’s ban all the mainlanders…do it! We don’t need their kind here. What we need more than anything else are God fearing, traditional families who will contribute to this country, remove all the radicalism here, and go back to the good old ways – Sharia law, burka, modest, virtual, and moral righteousness.

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Oracle

Limit immigration to 10,000 per country per year.

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Best place on meth

Good idea, just remove the 1 from china’s number.

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history

too late, you are here and breeding like a new delhi fly over a dead river.

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Shut It Down Already

Most people aren’t as frightened of and intolerant as you?

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patriotz

“And they are buying our hard assets with their worthless, newly printed money.”

You don’t say? And who in Canada is selling their hard assets for RMB?

They are buying our hard assets with dollars of course, and if you’re wondering where they are getting those dollars, just go shopping.

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history

they are getting their dollars from sweetheart deals with Ottawa snivelers. They are set up in primarily urban areas, with cheap housing, sponsored by entities captured by the deep state, like organized religion, and leftist beauracracy, the same that employs you, traitor. fk you

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bullwhip29

regarding yesterday’s rate hike…

>>> why all the “shock and awe” from the MSM? i suspect poloz and co have been playing a poker game all along knowing full well that they have a crappy hand. what we witnessed on Wed (and likely will later in the fall) is nothing but a calculated bluff in the hopes that the market takes the bait and backs down somewhat. sure, this will spook some this time around but my guess is that most will stand firm and call BS knowing full well the folks in ottawa have very little wiggle room in this regard and will end up painting themselves into a corner for good. all we have to do is look to Japan to get a glimpse of what the end game in the US, Cda, europe and elsewhere will be.

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Owen

I think Canada and the US are somewhat protected from Japan’s outcome because of our higher population growth rates. Europe – and soon China! – might be heading towards lost decades status.

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bullwhip29

while this may currently be the case, the population is still aging rapidly, costs are exploding upwards and the savings rate in the US and Cda among average joe’s is way lower than what it was in Japan during the 80’s and 90’s. should there be any sustained downturn in asset prices, people here will have nothing to fall back on and the cries from disgruntled cdns who feel the govt should devote more time and resources to helping out its own citizens first (vs keeping the immigration floodgates open) will grow louder and louder

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history

Maybe.

Debt is a very personal thing. Each Canadian chose to refinance, get that line of credit. It’s embarrasing when things dont work out. BOC has been warning forever rates are flexible and may go higher, IMF, BIS, and every other entity that MSM suckles, same thing.

Blaming immigrants is well and fine, our country brings in more per capita then any other country, by a wide margin. There are winners and losers. A debt pig home owner has been a winner under this regime. It remains to be seen if a born in Canada frugal Canadian makes up ground the next ten years.

Maybe

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Oracle

Japanese are enjoying their highest standard of living ever.

Don’t believe the economic BS.

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history

i agree, Japan allowed zero immigrants. If Canada stopped immigration in say, 1970, before the East Indian stinkup, the same would apply to Canada. We would be fresher, healthier, more robust nation, instead if a UN shit pen full of oracle curry

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zoom

You had already stink up Canada before other ethnics groups joined in…

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history

poloz raises interest rates when the Sun is in Cancer, the sign of homes, houses and family. Zionist world power has a special place in the ledger for Canada and its ability to absorb the refuse it creates from artificial wars

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zoom

You white supremacist are major stain on human race

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Just me

Canada Bonds Extend Plunge After First Rate Hike in Seven Years https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-07-13/canada-bonds-extend-plunge-after-first-rate-hike-in-seven-years The yield on Canada’s two-year government debt rose six basis points to 1.25 percent, after increasing seven basis points Wednesday. The rate on the country’s five-year note climbed seven basis points to 1.57 percent. Ten- and 30-year yields also rose. The loonie gained 0.1 percent to C$1.2740 per U.S. dollar at about noon in Toronto, extending its advance since June 12 when Bank of Canada officials first signaled the intent to tighten monetary policy to 5.8 percent. It’s the best performance among 31 major currencies tracked by Bloomberg. There’s a 74 percent probability that policy makers led by Governor Stephen Poloz will increase rates again this year, according to overnight index swaps data compiled by Bloomberg, which would reverse the two cuts the central bank carried out in… Read more »

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KickThemOut

Really?? Seriously? Plunge? Do you have any idea what a basis point is? And what a duration is?

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history

the Asians sure do. Plunges are when you get on the plane to come to Canada suitcase or phone app full of yuan or ruppie convertible. Taking the plunge in Canadas rich social exploitation fields. basis points are factored by Home conditions. The math always regresses to the state of the compatriots you left behind. Dont get your hackes up, its the same for all immigrants, refugees, opportunists… how to make a dime of the pioneers, while you settle in. But once here, you gotta contribute, labour is a good example. Could be labour setting up e-transfers on other peoples phones… you do what you’re good at…. do what you’re good at… thats all im good at saving. Saved some coin, bought a van for my brother, insured it under the ICBC Artisan program. Go home owners Go!! flip them… Read more »

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zoom

If you are white European you should then go back to Europe by your view.

You stink

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bullwhip29

the percentage of locals who meet the following criteria:
– currently sitting on a nest egg of this size
– do not already own some form of RE (or will/have sold at theoretical mkt top)
– will call a market bottom while still managing to deftly outbid other buyers including HAM and not over paying
– will pick a highly sought after property with minimal number of issues or none at all (despite having no exp in the RE mkt)

is effectively ZERO or a small fraction of total foreign money still entering the country through one channel or another and winding up in RE

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KickThemOut

More you think lazy bum…there are lots of hard working individuals making easily 6 figure+, with many on this blog earning $200K+/yr, with high mid-6 figures to 7 figure investment portfolios.

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bullwhip29

that’s not what i am arguing you imbecile. the vast majority of the “hardworking” folks in this group likely own property too and didnt sit idly on the sidelines throughout the entire RE bull market waiting for the world to end. 5, 10, 15, 20 yrs+ of drinking the coolaid can change one’s perspective and explains for the most part why people like christy clark have managed to hang around for as long as they have

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Shut It Down Already

Mid-6 to 7 figure portfolio would be drained by an $800K withdrawal to the point that all the eggs are suddenly in one basket (which also comes with monthly expenses).

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Dave

The only people sitting on an $800k downpayment are foreign students.

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Combat roach

and housewives…

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KickThemOut

and Garth Turner’s blog dogs & clients
+
investment genius bears on this blog, who for some reason don’t want to be hedge fund managers making tens of millions in fees.

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