It’s Friday and that means it’s time for another Friday Free-for-all!
This is our regular end of the week news round up and open topic discussion thread for the weekend, here are a few recent links to kick off the chat:
–Student Housing Crunch
–Imaginary debt crisis
–Lumber stocks tumble
–Millennials struggle
–Value means flippability
–
So what are you seeing out there? Post your news links, thoughts and anecdotes in the comments below and have an excellent weekend!
[…] out by SouthSeaCompany: Mortgage rule changes are cooling housing market: […]
One day Vancouver will crash, big time. But it won’t make any difference. How many times has Miami/Florida crashed ? Many. Each time it comes back stronger, bigger and better because it was always the resort destination for the NorthEast and that huge population. Now, in the global era, it is the most desired resort destination for all of the Caribbean, Mexico, Central and South America–an exponentially larger population.
Even when it does crash here will the bears be able to see it in this context? And buy? No. They will see prices going back to the 80s-90s which is completely unrealistic and miss out again.
“Each time it comes back stronger”
When interest rates have been declining for 35 years that enables the market to come back. That is the point of lowering interest rates. That option will not be available for a long, long time in Canada. In fact as you know interest rates will be going up making the bust that much worse. Big difference in a recovery between those two situations.
It’s amazing that more real estate people, economists and experts don’t talk about this. People talk about interest rate normalization as if it is a given and that somehow the real estate market will just continue as it has in the last 35 years.
To me this is the elephant in the room. There aren’t a lot of options available to our central banks to bail us out in the next recession. They’ll cut interest rates a half point in an environment where there is little demand for cheap money.
The only thing North America will have going for it is population growth. Debt per capita will be more or less tapped out.
The feds inflated the housing bubble with low interest rate and it burst. To reflate the bubble, they drop interest down to 0% and kept it for a decade.
Vancouver is a 2nd rate resort town. It rains all the time, and is temperate at best. The best resort towns are hot most of the year, and have relatively low rainfall. Miami, Honolulu, Palm Springs, etc. those are resort towns. The only reason why the Chinese come here is it’s a convenient place to park cash, and the least crappy weather in Canada: not because it’s a great resort destination. People will always want to go to Miami because of the weather, the same can not be said for Vancouver.
You had me until “least crappy weather in Canada”. Seriously dude, Vancouver has just about the worst weather in Canada. If 10 months of cold drizzle isn’t the very definition of the ‘worst weather’ I don’t know what is.
Inspiring piece. Are you a philosopher by any chance?
Why is the replacement Johnson Street bridge in Victoria being built with steel from a totalitarian shithole rather than steel from Canada?
http://vancouvercondo.info/2017/08/friday-free-for-all-august-18th-2017.html
BPOM, the simple answer to your question is cost, but the question of graft is always present, especially in a project with the earmarks of big overruns, delays, etc. As to the steel: we can only hope the Chinese steel in this project in our backwater of Victoria, BC bears up figuratively and literally than the piles in the bridge being built in the other Victoria (Hong Kong), that is, the Hong Kong–Zhuhai-Macau Bridge, which is mired in scandal of faked stress tests, etc.
Bad mistake using Chineeze steel. That bridge won’t last. You get what you pay for in life.
Can you fucking learn to spell “Chinese” already?
from the CBC:
“Steel arrives for Victoria’s much-delayed Johnson Street Bridge replacement. Project racked by years of delays and ballooning costs”
“Billed as the largest capital project in the city’s history, costs for the project were initially estimated at $63 million with the bridge completed by 2015. Now, costs have grown to $105 million and the bridge is expected to be completed by mid-2018.
The Canadian Taxpayers Association even awarded the project the dubious honour of the 2017 Municipal Teddy Government Waste Award for wasting millions in public money. ”
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/steel-arrives-johnson-street-bridge-1.4258724
Realtors who break rules should face tougher penalty, says Ont. association:
https://app.tmxmoney.com/news/cpnews/article?locale=EN&newsid=SUF2301&mobile=false
It says the average fine per case last year was just $6,000. It adds that the rules are outdated for today’s real estate landscape, in which house prices have reached record highs, resulting in big commissions for real estate agents. Current rules were set in 2002 when the average cost of a home in the province was $211,000.
Andrew Weaver Tweets: “The issue is resident vs non resident. It is a matter of where you pay your taxes. That’s the intent and is easy to verify.”
But Andrew, most of household in Richmond files their taxes and pays no income tax, lives in a mansion while their husbands in Norway supports them.
The latest eye-popping ALR listing is in Surrey, in the 13,000-block Coulthard Road. Land records show owner Li Wang bought the property in May 2015 for $1.55 million. It’s now listed online for $37 million.
http://vancouversun.com/news/local-news/green-leader-weaver-pushes-foreign-buyer-ban-for-farmland
“It has an excellent redevelopment play or would make a great holding property,” the ad says. “Hold and build your dream country estates. Seller is designing a unique, concept-like theme park with castle quarter, mini golf course, man-made lake, fish pond with waterfall, fruit garden … Price reflects the value!”
This ALR – Chinese shitshow should be a slam dunk opportunity for NDP and Eby to gain some credibility and show that system is not yet total FUBAR. Confiscate and get that shit out of there.
Notice who is abusing the process? Chineeze again.
This Wang dude is just dreaming. He has drunk his own Chineeze cool-aid with the typical get-rich-quick mentality those people have..
You should do a PSA and tell all those lottery buyers too.
This really displays the inherent weakness of ALR policy. The tax incentives are supposed to make people want to farm here for a living, but extremely lax restrictions mean that ALR is just being used to avoid paying tax. There needs to be an audit process, and the auditors should have the power to re-possess and re-sell the land to actual farmers. The NDP knows this is an issue, it’s anyone’s guess if they’re actually going to do anything about it. At this point it seems unlikely. I would be happy with either better enforcement, or rezoning all the ALR residential. Either way it will keep people honest.
The problem with implementing this type of RIGIT legislation is that it can cause enormous unforeseen problems many decades down the road. Then NDP got us into it 45 years ago and now it looks like we’re stuck with it.
45 years ago nobody could foresee the locust invasion and barbaric, exploitative mindset they brought with them.
We continue to circle the drain as more of this trash comes in.
That’s the point. Don’t pass legislation if you can’t FORESEE the consequences. Now we’re stuck with it (probably forever) as the slightest hint of changing it would set off the wildest speculation since the tulip bubble.
i bet krusty and co already set that plan in motion a while ago. there are simply too many of these strange deals occurring for there not to be some substance to the story. all the chatter of redevelopment potential, theme park and all that nonsense might be a cover for some other material change in the works
RIGID
Don’t you need to farm x% of the land and/or show $yyy amount of farming income to keep the ALR tax rate? Seizing properties against owners will without demonstrated national interests isn’t going to well in courts. This is not communist China remember? Garth just did a whole blog about the lack of property rights in Canada.
Anecdotally I have heard that you can do a very small, superficial amount of farming to qualify. I would imagine having a very small blueberry patch that you charge other people to pick is the standard Richmond tactic. I doubt there is a very large penalty for not farming either, and many of these wealthy people probably just lie about it. I would be interested to hear from someone familiar with the details of ALR restrictions though.
my issue isnt with token amt of farming to qualify but rather the notion that owners can do literally anything they want on the rest of the land including many things that would never be allowed under normal circumstances
The home sits on agricultural land, but a brochure targeting would-be buyers boasts the possibility of low foreign buyers tax due to farm status
http://bc.ctvnews.ca/26m-surrey-vineyard-estate-set-to-break-fraser-valley-record-1.3557422
The sellers know they are between a rock and a hard place and by asking an exorbitant amount they will get all kinds of free publicity and then they will end up selling if they are lucky for a fraction of their asking price.
Lower Mainland universities grapple with long wait lists for student housing
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/ubc-sfu-waitlist-students-housing-1.4256721
Been like this for 3 decades now…where have you been? At least UBC Dorms now have working toilets.
i am just wondering what the point of down voting every post is considering that your user name is generally the only one that pops up?
What has changed in 3 decades is that during that time, UBC has built out the equivalent of a small town of market housing on its Vancouver campus with the usual million-plus price tags, of which the primary function is as investment vehicle (but might be lived in on occasion). Yet students still struggle with housing as they did in 1987, and many faculty and staff have no hope of owning a home less than an hour’s commute from the campus.
Yeah greed is king with most of these Universities. They heavily favor foreign students because they get to charge them way more (like 3 times as much from what I remember), and they have deep enough pockets to pay for overpriced student housing.
Coun. Harold Steves says a report by the Vancouver Sun of apparent illegal activity occurring in a mega mansion on Richmond farmland is symptomatic of the “worst attack” on local agriculture since the 1973 establishment of the Agricultural Land Reserve
http://www.richmond-news.com/news/worst-attack-on-farmland-since-73-1.22094193
“worst attack” on local agriculture since the 1973 establishment of the Agricultural Land Reserve BY CHINEEZE. There, fixed it for him.
Winning like the bears on this blog??
“Canadian retail sales growth slows in June, but rate hike still expected”, Globe & Mail
“Canadian retail sales cooled in June after three consecutive months of solid growth, but analysts said the economy’s overall tone was still strong enough to warrant another interest rate hike this year.”
“Mortgage rule changes are cooling housing market: Moreau”, Globe & Mail
“Finance Minister Bill Morneau says last October’s sweeping mortgage rule changes aimed at cooling Canada’s housing market have successfully dampened high-risk borrowing.”
“But despite a report urging Ottawa to look at ways of boosting support for Canadians entering the housing market, the Minister ruled out any new measures along those lines, expressing concern that such an approach would encourage higher house prices.”
http://thenewdaily.com.au/money/finance-news/2017/08/21/peter-costello-house-prices/
Costello needs s to look at how its done in Canada. We have a wildly popular HOG program that acts like a Mortgage Tax benefit.
it’s pretty much academic anyway. We have now an Ability to Pay economy. Your task to become rich, is to use technology that identifies the amount of money in your Marks pocket, another machine to tip him or her upside down, and shake the money out!! Quietly disappear in the dead of night to a safe neighbourhood with good schools
Richter does justice to the big news from last Friday. I dont buy the comment on Chiinese owning US dollars to buy US assets, or by association, Canadian dollars for Canadian assets. There is more history to consider, especially how Chinese ended up with these dollars…
http://wolfstreet.com/2017/08/20/us-asset-bubbles-crack-china-restricts-outbound-investments/
“…something that’s supposed to make things better doesn’t seem to be doing the trick—in fact, quite the opposite—and it’s time that we talked about that.”
Goo doesnt want to make housing more affordable.
http://wolfstreet.com/2017/08/22/full-fledged-housing-crisis-in-silicon-valley-insider-view/
New
238
Price Change
52
Sold
153
TI:9851
Richmond cops say distracted driver hit officer
http://vancouversun.com/news/local-news/richmond-cops-say-distracted-driver-hit-officer
>>> yet another model citizen from Richmond who wholeheartedly believes existing laws and normal everyday manners and behavior are ideals that do not apply to them simply because they somehow acquired some cash back in the homeland and that said funds can be thrown around at will to buy anything and anyone
Like that Richmond RCMP that taser the poor Polish guy, who also hit someone while drunk & went home to drink even some more before calling police to give a breathalyzer test?
Man…if only we can exclude Chinese from driving, we would have 0 distracted drivers on the road.
Well they have this going for them now:
ICBC makes lots of bad decisions like that. It’s probably why they’re almost insolvent now.
Fuck, those things shouldn’t even be accepted in china.
Utter shame… constantly catering to those parasites will eventually kill this society and country as we knew it.
Average Canadian mortgage nears $200K, up 5% in a year
https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/average-canadian-mortgage-nears-200k-040100658.html
The proliferation of Mortgages is cause for concern.
The best way to deal with this is Education.
hearby, a govt program coined “Mortgage Bonus” is desperately needed to assist the growing Mortgage on families.
and,..
we need to investigate a one Mortgage per family rule. Two is certainly enough.
If they give monetary handouts to mortgage borrowers and not to renters there’s going to be a riot. Home owners already get ridiculous taxpayer handouts in the form of a capital gains tax exemption. The only equitable solution is to give everyone a bailout. That way people with no debt get a bunch of money, and people with stupid debt get enough money to get by.
Really? Riot? You mean the people who are too damn lazy to even get out of their couch to go to a housing rally are going to riot? Really? when the biggest bears BPOM who shouts nuke China don’t go to that stupid HALT rally, or even brave enough to even tell a Chinese person to go home, the renters are going to riot? please….I would believe claims about a pig can fly before this.
They’re too lazy right now because the inequities aren’t extremely obvious. There aren’t many people that are aware of how renters are getting screwed and homeowners are getting rewarded. If they see homeowners getting CASH I think that’s the tipping point for most people. We’ll see though, you’re right about many Canadians being too lazy to get off their asses and stand up for their rights. Maybe if their asses are homeless and they’re already on the street they’ll do something about it… if they’re not hooked on fentanyl and dying already…
Justin shouldnt waste any time. Increases to the Canada Mortgage tax Benefit is urgently required.
A commitment to Mortgages is urgently required by the Canadian parliament! To help eleviate mortgage payments that are causing poverty in Canada!
Post haste,. Govt must save the banks and debt money system, and those enslaved. Housing is too big to fail!
I recommend a tax free payment of $533.00 per mortgage under 6 years old. And $450 per mortgage from 6 to 17 years old.
Fact: Communist Dictatorship China does not allow foreigners to purchase residential real estate. They are racist.
Time to organize a protest.
Real Fact: Foreigners CAN purchase real estate in China.
http://www.expatfocus.com/expatriate-china-buying-property
I have a friend who is a partner in an Vancouver architecture firm and their firm bought a condo in Shanghai, so they can stay there when visiting clients
In fact many Canadian development firms have invested in China RE, including those that are owned by huge pension funds.
Good to actually research and inform your opinion before posting.
Your first questionable link states: “No one in China has full ownership of a residential property and the land on which it is built. Residential land is usually leased for 70 years.”
Best to read your links thoroughly before posting them in a poor attempt at a rebuttal.
It’s called a leasehold and exists in Vancouver too.
You have to show yourself working and paying income tax in China for 1 or 2 years before they consider your application. You are not stupid, so you know that this is totally different from what is going on here in Vancouver Lower Mainland.
It is time to stop being disingenuous.
I thought foreigners isn’t a race?
You meant “aren’t a race”
According to you, foreigners in China are not of a different race than Chinese, and they don’t come from a different country? That’s new.
Just applying some bears definition here.
Provincial election or going back to deficit first?
https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/british-columbia-ends-2016-17-175359190.html
BC Libs had $2.7B surplus for 2016/2017, all surplus going to operating debts. How long before NDP screw that up?
Public debt is what we should all be worried about first.
And NDP will make sure there are plenty to go around and share!
Lesson 1: Public debt is personal debt, not the Govt’s or NDP.
Really? You mean I’m personally responsible for the $40 Billion of Provincial Debt? WOW! I didn’t know I had such borrowing power! And damn, those international debt holders are going after me personally to collect!
who build up the debt? The NDP or BC Libs?
Detached in HAM areas has gone from worse to worser.
West Van is probably the worst it’s ever been, maybe worse that the 2008 meltdown.
In just the last 2 weeks, inventory has grown from 355 to 487, sales fell from 16 to 10 and MOI doubled from 12.5 to 25.
West side is the next worst, inventory has grown from 556 to 752 (in 2 weeks), sales from 25 to 22 and MOI from 12 to 17.
Richmond, East Van and Burnaby are little changed from 2 weeks ago with MOI around 8-10.
Out the Valley the hot Abby market has cooled further with MOI climbing from 4.3 to 5.6 (from sellers to balanced market) , while Mission and Chilliwack are little changed and still in sellers markets.
it’s late august. time for bears to get excited about rising inventory. happens every year.
listings rise to bring maximum exposure to high season East Asian tourists.
So you do you believe that crazy home prices, nowhere near in line with average Lower Mainland family wage of $67 000 annually is good news for Vancouver Lower Mainland?
There are 20 houses for sale in Lion’s Bay. What is that like half of the town is up for sale?
It’s interesting to see how there seems to be a lag, which makes it look like the market is flattening out in pricing. But it’s probably a temporary thing and I suspect MOI will continue to go up.
so it’s a melt down, crash, correction, bubble bursting…any of you bears buying? …or is it just saliva talk?
Wouldn’t you agree that it very concerning, and just plain sad that people who make over $200 000 per year cannot afford to own a detached home in Lower Mainland?
But they can afford luxury cars, private school, vacations, etc…Only that 60 year old tear down crack shack in the lower mainland evades them.
Hmm? I wonder why that is? Must be all the local tax payers and wage earners buying all those now 2+ million dollar homes across the lower mainland for the last 15 years.
That is why when you visit a lower mainland high school you can witness the population replacement first hand.
No offences but its prices that matter. Is the sub $1 million market going down? We’ve been down this inventory, sales, etc road before.
I explain MOI to you one day when I’ve assembled the necessary collection of puppets.
Lynda Steele talks with Marc Cohodes about Vancouver Real Estate, Krusty, Home Capital Group, and David Eby…. Aug 21, 2017.
🙂
https://omny.fm/shows/steele-drex/one-of-our-favourite-real-estate-analysts-joins-us
this guy said easy credit. how wrong could he be ! any of you bears try to apply for a mortgage at the bank? Try it, the bank won’t bite you, but you will get a feel of how painful the process is.
Here comes inexhaustible wisdom, always enlightenment. Have you ever checked your IQ, even for fun?
He tried to, but the inflatable cuff kept hurting his arm.
Some want Seattle to tax foreign homebuyers, vacant properties; others say that’s illegal, discriminatory
http://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/politics/proposed-seattle-taxes-targeting-foreign-buyers-investment-properties-take-fire/
“Wilson described taxes based on nationality as un-American”
That’s ridiculous, the IRS taxes foreigners differently from Americans in a number of areas, including real estate, and so do state governments.
As I said before, Wilson is a homeowner- hence the bullshit excuses.
Seattle FBT is a bad idea. Better to raise Interest Rates.
“Herbold then turned to King County Assessor John Wilson, asking in a June letter for help unmasking wealthy buyers who hide their identities behind shell companies.
But Wilson last week strongly criticized her request, saying it could stigmatize people from China, who make up a high share of overseas buyers in Seattle.
In a written response to Herbold last week, the assessor said he would refuse to collect the buyer-identity data the council member was asking for.
“I would not support any policy response that could lead to racial bias or anything that smacks of the Chinese Exclusion laws from two centuries ago,” Wilson said.”
Look how quickly this homeowner is to play the race card and make the locals feel guilty about something white people did 200 years ago.
Property taxes are paid, bylaws followed, source of funds passed through US IRS reviews, does it matter who owns the house? Aside from your curiosity and inane obsession with Chinese mainlanders? Maybe you should see a psychologist.
Maybe I should go see one of your favorite massage ladies.
Can you check first if they’re victims of human trafficking?
I know your culture don’t give a fuck about these petty little things but we tend to have a problem with it.
That’s my boss’ job since he hires and evaluate them. As far as I know, they make more in tips than I do in salary, work just 6 months of the year.
Vancouverites took out smaller mortgages last year. How can that be when prices are in the millions?
100% these prices are driven solely by foreign $$ being brought in by recent immigrants, 10 yr visa holders, foreign students, and Supervisa holders.
Mortgages are smaller because buyers have shifted from detached to condos.
Under 200K ?
in other words, business for those requiring mortgages in slowing down big time. apparently plenty of action in the more “unconventional” corners of the industry where insider knowledge, dark pool transactions and the greasing of politicians and officials are par for the course. here most casual bystanders are still focusing on the various little squares on the monopoly board when in actuality the whole board is being whipped out from under us all and replaced with an entirely new and unregulated game board in a different language
Story in Globe and mail