Friday Free-for-all! August 25th 2017

It’s the end of another work week and that means it’s time for another Friday free-for-all!

This is our regular end of the week news round up and open topic discussion thread for the weekend, here are a few links to kick off the chat:

RE based policy painful no matter what
Interest rate normalization
Sharp reversal in Toronto
Tougher penalties for Realtors?
Foreign buyer ban for farm land?
Retail sales slow but hike still expected

So what are you seeing out there? Post your news links, thoughts and anecdotes in the comments below and have an excellent weekend!

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KickThemOut
Member
KickThemOut
bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

If your Canadian currency has Chinese writing on it, it’s fake
http://www.ctvnews.ca/canada/counterfeit-alert-chinese-writing-a-dead-giveaway-on-fake-bills-1.3568439

>>> either this is a total joke or those involved simply do not give a $hit about any action (or lack thereof) by authorities. or maybe, just maybe, this was a trial balloon floated by the BoC?

Abdul Lahazi
Guest
Abdul Lahazi

I was watching an episode of “Border Patrol” on the weekend and this couple from Vietnam arrives at JFK airport and they have 4.3 million dollars of counterfeit US currency in $100 bills packed in boxes. They claimed it is “ghost money” for burning at dead relative’s graves so the customs officers confiscated the currency and let them walk out! It was apparently excellent counterfeit quality and almost impossible to discern from genuine. I couldn’t believe it. If they were any other race I’m sure they would have been arrested for importing counterfeit currency.

VanRant
Member
VanRant

“House flippers triggered the US housing market crash, not poor subprime borrowers”
Mounting evidence suggests that the notion that the 2007 crash happened because people with shoddy credit borrowed to buy houses they couldn’t afford is just plain wrong. The latest comes in a new NBER working paper arguing that it was wealthy or middle-class house-flipping speculators who blew up the bubble to cataclysmic proportions, and then wrecked local housing markets when they defaulted en masse.
https://qz.com/1064061/house-flippers-triggered-the-us-housing-market-crash-not-poor-subprime-borrowers-a-new-study-shows/
Heaven help Vancouver!

YVR
Guest
YVR
Explained here by Buffett. “So this sound premise that it’s a good idea to buy a house this year because it’s probably going to cost more next year and you’re going to want a home, and the fact that you can finance it gets distorted over time if housing prices are going up 10 percent a year and inflation is a couple percent a year. Soon the price action – or at some point the price action takes over, and you want to buy three houses and five houses and you want to buy it with nothing down and you want to agree to payments that you can’t make and all of that sort of thing, because it doesn’t make any difference: It’s going to be worth more next year. “And lender feels the same way. It really doesn’t make… Read more »
YVR
Guest
YVR

That is exactly what I see here. Current home owners with equity keeping their existing property when they move up, buying second and third properties as investments and taking out HELOCs to gift kids for a DP. That is actually the cause of the bubble, not the trigger of the bust. The trigger is when credit is no longer available for enough people to buy at current prices. That includes both the speculators and first timer buyers. Then the liquidation of those who hold secondary properties and speculation properties speeds up the bust. As the article points out it is not the first time buyers who do most of the selling.

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

unlike USA 2007, this all began with influx of HAM. what you are describing is how the joneses and smiths who either already own or have yet to get into market are dealing with it. if there is another credit event, HAM will buy up everything else they dont already own and the powers that be will bend over backwards to accomodate them since there will be no other source of cash to prop things up. i kinda doubt a 25 or 50 bp cut by the BoC will even make a dent.

Abdul Lahazi
Guest
Abdul Lahazi

I don’t think so. HAM are just opportunists and they jumped on the bandwagon for the ride. Anyways HAM is basically a non-issue now. They can’t buy if they aren’t here.

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

HAM is driving the bandwagon. currently there is chatter about tinkering with the speed limit but not much else. the joneses and smiths are the ones who jumped (or are jumping) on the bandwagon. the way things are going, HAM will be manufacturing future bandwagons along with the highways and toll booths too. should/when the SHTF you can bet Trudeau and Co will open the flood gates even further and toss the rule book out the window. over leveraged locals will wind up as roadkill and be run over in both directions

Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

You totally missed the point. If prices aren’t “guaranteed” to be higher next year then all buyers become less interested.

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

some buyers… ie the ones who shouldnt be buying in the first place and have been trying to keep head above water in a market dominated by funny money simply looking for a place to be stashed regardless of what the market may be doing at any given point in time.

YVR
Guest
YVR

In other words it is different here. LOL

paulb
Member

New
175
Price Change
47
Sold
155
TI:9659

http://www.clivestevepaul. com

Doomcouver
Member
Doomcouver

Weird how the TI numbers have been stuck in the mid 9k’s for so long. If I was going to speculate it seems like the market might be starting to lock up on the selling and buying side. High-end homes aren’t selling very well and are being pulled off the market, while the condo market is so hot, people are too scared to sell their house lest they become homeless.

Sebastien
Member
Sebastien

Stagnant market? :
6820 Stanley Street, Burnaby
Jun 27:$2,200,000
Aug 28: $1,599,000
Change: – 601,000 -27%
Assess: $1,753,000

Abdul Lahazi
Guest
Abdul Lahazi

That’s still too expensive for regular locals. But if SFH prices continue to decline it will push down condo prices too.

Doomcouver
Member
Doomcouver

It definitely seems stagnant at the high end. The Chinese are finding it near impossible to get money out of China to buy real estate with. The locals are snapping up condos and townhomes at a record pace though.

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

there’s also more to gain by buying up non-residential properties not subject to the FBT, rezoning them and selling more FBT-free presales to HAM and locals to a lesser degree. richmond is currently ground zero for schemes like this.

KickThemOut
Member
KickThemOut

Think the air in the past few weeks were bad? Wait ’til next year when this giant really gets up and get going with coal burning:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-08-29/one-chinese-coal-power-giant-employs-4x-more-people-entire-us-coal-industry

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

more likely this is chinese version of enron

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

Vancouver architect says the wealthy are cashing in on property tax deferment
http://globalnews.ca/news/3704176/vancouver-architect-says-the-wealthy-are-cashing-in-on-property-tax-deferment/

Doomcouver
Member
Doomcouver

Yet another unfair handout for homeowners. Can I defer the portion of my rent that goes to property tax? I think not.

Abdul Lahazi
Guest
Abdul Lahazi

You get your $400 rent grant from the NDP. Just be happy with your crumbs…

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

the key point is that this loophole is something the multi-millionaire housewives and students all over gr vanc having been starting to exploit. must be a great life not having to pay any income, capital gains, GST and now property taxes only to waste it all on sports cars, bottles of bordeaux and chanel handbags

history
Guest
history

That link will actually steer the curious home owner wanting to loophole their way out of prop taxes to Action!

realist
Member
realist

from Zero Hedge: “Home Prices In 80% Of US Cities Grow Twice Faster Than Wages… And Then There’s Seattle”

“while this should not come as a surprise, …something strange is taking place in Seattle, which has either become “Vancouver South” when it comes to Chinese hot money laundering, or there is an unprecedented mini housing bubble in the hipster capital of the world.”

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-08-29/home-prices-80-us-cities-grow-twice-faster-wages-and-then-theres-seattle

Joe Condo
Guest

The whole world is a boiling kettle of bubbles – rising more here, less there.

And it’s the Central Bankers who control the gas.

history
Guest
history

I am the god of hell banker, and i bring you finance..

Regards,
Arthur Brown

kabloona
Member
kabloona

Well, Hipsters certainly do love over-priced real estate along with their over-priced coffee….

🙂

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

the difference is that hipsters in seattle can actually afford starbucks and artisan finger food whereas the wannabees in vancouver are the ones serving it.

Time to go
Guest
Time to go

Great article on the mindset of Chinese in China: China is going to hit a wall

https://www.fuw.ch/article/china-is-going-to-hit-a-wall/

“So far this year has been crazy, particularly in the area around Beijing. Just a few weeks ago I was in this little rustbelt city called Zhuozhou in the Hebei province where the steel mills are. It’s a very unpleasant place to spend time. It’s very polluted, there’s nothing to do, the food is bad and the landscape is awful. It’s just no place you want to be and yet property prices have doubled, tripled and in some places even quadrupled in a year.”

LS in Arbutus
Guest
LS in Arbutus

Yeah…. exactly… unbelievable. A polluted cesspool with prices tripling, etc. And while Vancouver is not a dump, it’s certainly not earned the RE prices we have. It all comes to a screeching halt sooner or later. (And sooner appears to be here.)

history
Guest
history

The Capitalist way if doing things is to Merge like industries, and cut the employees down in a rationalisation, Expected of markets in the free world, but not yet clear in Locust China. See Spaces link on coal… but dont dwell on his Deterministic response… use your higher Western mind to factor Probabilities.

southseacompany
Member
southseacompany

“Quantitative easing has made houses hopelessly unaffordable”, The Spectator UK

https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2017/08/quantitative-easing-has-made-houses-hopelessly-unaffordable/

“Financial crises tend to see asset prices collapsing, making housing more affordable. But it’s been different this time because the authorities in the UK, and elsewhere, countered the crisis with low interest rates and quantitative easing. By slashing the cost of borrowing and flooding the system with liquidity, these policies set out to – and succeeded in – inflating asset prices. “

history
Guest
history

I do not have anything of substance to add to this thread, sorry.

southseacompany
Member
southseacompany

“New mortgage rules could depress housing demand by another 10%: TD”, Financial Post

http://business.financialpost.com/personal-finance/mortgages-real-estate/new-mortgage-rules-could-depress-housing-demand-by-another-10-td

“Demand for housing could be cut anywhere from five to 10 per cent because of tougher qualification rules being considered by Ottawa, according to a report by Toronto-Dominion Bank out Monday.”

history
Guest
history

Do you know how to pronounce Quality in Canada?

Kwaality. And learn some Mandarin while you’re at it.

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

Hazmat team called out to Vancouver’s Olympic Village
http://globalnews.ca/news/3702975/hazmat-team-called-out-to-vancouvers-olympic-village/

>>> more fun and games in the 3rd most liveable city in the world

history
Guest
history

I know women that have orgasms when they see a Hazmat suit. You know how much your paid when you put one on?

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

People walking the streets next to the Woodward’s building in Gastown might want to look up–not to the iconic “W” on the roof, but to watch out for falling concrete
http://bc.ctvnews.ca/woodward-s-building-concrete-crumbling-1m-lawsuit-1.3565913

history
Guest
history

Concrete got Houston in its predicament. Is that what popped up on the CTV news spammer algo this morning?

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

UBC says Vancouver rental crunch driving up waitlists for student housing
http://globalnews.ca/news/3702599/ubc-says-vancouver-rental-crunch-driving-up-waitlists-for-student-housing/

history
Guest
history

Someone track down Lloyd Aworthy, and see if he has rental accomodations.

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

Vancouver’s ‘renovictions’ driven in large part by vacate clause: advocate
https://www.biv.com/article/2017/8/vancouvers-renovictions-driven-large-part-vacate-c/

>>> wasn’t this supposed to come to an end?

history
Guest
history

jesus johavah confucius, must i spell out everything for the tenant? You are living in a place that is more valuable empty.
Join me on the curb, vehicle living has its rewards.

Best place on meth
Member
Best place on meth

Until November rolls around.

I really wonder about all these rolling hobos I’ve been seeing around my neighborhood in increasing numbers, will they have the engine running for 6 months solid?

history
Guest
history

No, engines dont run, unles you intend to move the vehicle.

if you cant handle it, well, there’s Space in the janitors room during the wnter.

The fact is you’re all a bunch of pussies. Ive been in my vehicle since 2011.

I’m the King of housing analysis, and Survival.

Debt free.. and no ones slave, especially the Terrorist banks and FIRE industry whores.

YVR
Guest
YVR
patriotz
Member

“If John A. Macdonald has to go, why not Pierre Trudeau too?”

Now there’s a strawman for you, since nobody in a position to do anything about it has said that Sir John A. “has to go”. Indeed JT himself and Wynne have said that Sir John A. is going to stay.

But it’s the Toronto Sun after all. The only thing worth looking at in it and its sister rags (not including the Vancouver Sun) was the Sunshine Girl, which they got rid of. Rabidly pro Harper and the Ford family. At least the Vancouver Sun, G&M, etc. drew the line at the Fords.

YVR
Guest
YVR

“Now there’s a strawman for you”

Not really. A few months ago you could have said that in the US. They are covering what civil war statues they have left in black tarps. Now the Alt Left is making calls to take down Christopher Columbus and even George Washington monuments. They want to erase history because it ‘offends’ them. Imagine if these Alt Left types get their way in Europe. They would probably bull doze Rome.

Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

Yes, just imagine Europe without all those Hitler statues!

Best place on meth
Member
Best place on meth

“If we are continuing on the path of historical sanitation, then why not get a jump on future generations before they judge us as failing to be pro-active in an era of supposedly principled pro-activity?

So, off with Pierre Trudeau’s figurative head.

If his son Justin, the current prime minister, objects to this progressiveness, then he is not a true progressive.”

Checkmate, Petit Turd.

YVR
Guest
YVR

While we’re at it can we erase Jr’s name from history too.

PM’s budget fails to balance itself

http://www.torontosun.com/2017/08/27/pms-budget-fails-to-balance-itself

Doomcouver
Member
Doomcouver

I’d rather vote Turdeau Jr. than Mein Fuhrer Harper. I couldn’t take one more look into Harper’s cold dead eyes. At least this way we get legal weed. That’ll be a kick to the groin for the Nanny State known as Canada.

YVR
Guest
YVR

“At least this way we get legal weed.”

Just wait until it is legal, then tell me how you feel. I bet all the legal weed advocates will be screaming once it is regulated and taxed. Name me something that they regulate and tax that made it better. Decriminalize which is essentially what we have now in Vancouver already is better.

Best place on meth
Member
Best place on meth

Should alcohol be deregulated and not taxed?

Doomcouver
Member
Doomcouver

YVR is just mad because he’s only 18 years old and won’t be able to buy weed OR alcohol soon.

history
Guest
history

You working tomorrow?

paulb
Member

New
201
Price Change
55
Sold
112
TI:9696

http://www.clivestevepaul.com

southseacompany
Member
southseacompany

“Canada’s economy is riding a wave of consumer debt. But for how long?”, Canadian Business

http://www.canadianbusiness.com/economy/canadas-economy-is-riding-a-wave-of-consumer-debt-but-for-how-long/

“When central bankers dropped interest rates during the financial crisis, finance ministers leaned too hard on household debt. That dynamic may finally be changing.”

“Canada has deployed its share of macroprudential policy, but the measures have been either tentative or reactionary. Housing prices were way off the charts in Vancouver and Toronto before local authorities sought to do anything about the problem—and when they did, they chose policies that would be the least controversial, not the most effective. At the national level, popular drivers of housing demand such as the capital-gains exemption on the sale of primary residences and various sops to first-time homebuyers remain in place.”

southseacompany
Member
southseacompany

“Quantitative easing is like heroin, says former Treasury official”, The Guardian

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/aug/21/quantitative-easing-heroin-treasury-lord-macpherson-qe-financial-crash

“A former senior Treasury mandarin has compared quantitative easing to heroin and called for an end to almost a decade of electronic money printing by central banks.”

“While QE is credited with lowering borrowing costs and helping banks to lend more to consumers and businesses, critics say such schemes inflate assets owned by the richest in society, while punishing savers without large amounts of wealth.”

Abdul Lahazi
Guest
Abdul Lahazi

I can tell everyone exactly what’s going to happen with this: The CBs will have a hard time fully ending QE and they will continue to pump more money into the credit system which will either eventually collapse under its own weight and/or inflation will take off and that will suddenly drive the CBs to jack interest rates exponentially to try and contain the financial contagion. It will catch them by surprise. You notice that real wages have not increased in decades even will all this new money in the system? Because the influx of money has not percolated down far enough into the economy; it has been absorbed by the wealthy who have the ability to take advantage of the new found wealth thus driving up asset prices for the few at the expense of the many.

Abdul Lahazi
Guest
Abdul Lahazi

I will also add that these same CBs by pumping so much money into the system they are actually destabilizing the world economic system which they are trying to stabilize which is quite ironic to me.

Best place on meth
Member
Best place on meth

QE is being wound down worldwide, however only the US is consistently raising rates over the last 18 months.

Yellen is gone in February, hopefully the EU is gone by then as well.

Abdul Lahazi
Guest
Abdul Lahazi

Trump is now saying he may keep Yellen on for another term.

Best place on meth
Member
Best place on meth

You’re aware by now how he like to fuck with people, yes?

realist
Member
realist

From thisismoney.co.uk: “House prices ‘will hit 15 TIMES the average income’, leading economists warn” Aug 26, 2017

“Rising numbers will be forced to rent instead of buy, economists argue. House prices will continue to rise unless public transport improves commuting options …Young Britons hoping a house price crash will let them buy a home could see their dreams thwarted, leading economists warn. David Miles, a former member of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee and now a professor at London’s Imperial College, and colleague James Sefton argue in an influential report that house prices could continue to defy gravity. ”

http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/mortgageshome/article-4825858/House-prices-hit-15-TIMES-average-income.html#ixzz4r4vMEZI2

Best place on meth
Member
Best place on meth

“leading economists”

Aaaahahahah….what an oxymoron.

What are these dopes leading, exactly?

Doomcouver
Member
Doomcouver
It’s the new normal guys, this party will never end. The best advice is everyone get the largest mortgage the bank will give you. Then buy the most dilapidated over-priced crack shack you can find and rent it out, and you’ll totally make like 2% of your investment a year collecting rent. Even when you add maintenence costs, strata fees, property tax, and your ever inflating mortgage rate, that’ll only put you at like MINUS 5% per year TOPS. WHO CARES about that though when your house will go up like 30-40% per year in perpetuity. Heck even buy it and don’t rent it, and after 20 years, guess how much money you’ll have? That’s right, 190 MILLION DOLLARS. As you can see, you’d be a complete moron not to buy a house. Those rat-infested black mold ridden walls of… Read more »
Mick Murphy
Guest
Combat roach
Guest
Combat roach

“A black 2017 Mercedes SUV was located in an ornamental fountain at Terra Nova Village shopping mall. A female driver in her early 20s managed to escape the vehicle and was transported to the hospital with non-life threatening injuries.”

Ehh, those naughty Norwegians girls in those latest model Mercedeses…

Doomcouver
Member
Doomcouver

I’m super glad that ICBC accepts Chinese driver’s licenses as valid in BC. I’m sure the Chinese have a very thorough system to evaluate proper driving skill and knowledge. Plus I have heard that Chinese government officials are very hard to bribe so you know their licenses are 100% legitimate.

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

no words…and i’d guess no hurtful msm tv coverage either

it is somewhat amusing, however, that the two people shown in the video somehow got a chuckle out of all this as though such an epic failure to conquer that 170′ hairpin bend in the road would never have happened to them…

Diadora
Guest
Diadora

Think hot money is still leaving China?
Chinese Billionaire Wang Jianlin Detained At Tianjin Airport, Prevented From Leaving China. Wang was released hours later, but he was informed that he can no longer leave China.
https://synglobe.net/2017/08/27/chinese-billionaire-wang-jianlin-detained-at-tianjin-airport-prevented-from-leaving-china/

Diadora
Guest
Diadora

Chinese overseas real estate investment could fall by 84 percent this year and another 18 percent in 2018 amid a government crackdown on capital outflows, according to a new report from Morgan Stanley.
https://therealdeal.com/2017/08/02/chinese-overseas-real-estate-investment-could-absolutely-nosedive-this-year-morgan-stanley/

KickThemOut
Member
KickThemOut

Garth crying about not able to split his income with his Amazon sex slaves and dogs

http://www.greaterfool.ca/2017/08/27/fantastically-irresponsible/

Abdul Lahazi
Guest
Abdul Lahazi

We have to pay for all those illegal refugees somehow.

YVR
Guest
YVR

Hilarious. Sad most of these are not a joke but reality.

http://comicallyincorrect.com/category/af-branco-political-cartoons/