Friday Free-for-all! August 4th 2017

It’s the end of another day at the end of another week at the beginning of another month.

And that means it’s time for another Friday Free-for-all!

This is our regular end of the week news round up and open topic discussion thread for the weekend, here are a few recent links to kick off the chat:

NDP house measures under review
New banking rules
What are covered bonds?
City vs Citizens on sunshine coast
Rethink house wealth tax

So what are you seeing out there? Post your news links, thoughts and anecdotes in the comments below and have an excellent weekend!

276 Comments on "Friday Free-for-all! August 4th 2017"

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LS in Arbutus
Guest
LS in Arbutus

Check out the link below for Vancouver West side sales, inventory, etc. It looks pretty shitty. Currently almost 10 months of inventory, which is firmly a buyer’s market… I think it’s shocking that anything’s selling at all, but 74 sales is pretty much nothing compared with total inventory of 731. Noting that 731 is the highest inventory of any month in the last two years.

If you look at the graph for detached, listing vs sold, the sales volume for the past 12 months is pretty bad.

http://www3.topproducerwebsite.com/users/41243/downloads/DetachedVWGraphs.pdf?utm_source=Westside+Living++2017-08&utm_campaign=Westside+Living+2017-08&utm_medium=email

DaMann
Member
DaMann

Maybe for SFH but condos and townhouses are scarce and prices still really high and rising. This market is no where close to a crash yet, not even a correction. There is no inventory out there. Nothing of note is going to happen until we hit 20k inventory. We are no where near that. Believe me, I can’t wait for the shit to hit the fan but I see nothing out there to get excited about yet.

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29
bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29
bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29
bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29
KickThemOut
Member
KickThemOut

No one should own more than 1 home. Home is for living in, not to make money from. There should be a graduated surtax on any additional home after the primary residence.

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

I know a guy who owns 40 detached in Surrey. A trucking company owner.

He bought them when the qualifying for mortgage only meant that rent had to cover the mortgage and you were approved.

history
Guest
history

link?

Best place on meth
Member
Best place on meth

Ha ha ha!

history
Guest
history

trick headline.

In other news, my fleet of vans is increasing. Gonna rent them out, and do astro readings. Get a stock exchange listing! soon i’ll be rich. GYP.tsxv

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

Toronto home sales plummet 40% in July compared to last year
http://globalnews.ca/news/3644776/toronto-home-sales-plummet-in-july/

>>> i am afraid a lot has changed in the last 12 months. i pray for the weak minded and naive souls who will take what these coolaid drinking RE know-it-alls are saying as gospel. imho Toronto will NOT snap right back and hit new highs just like Vancouver did. in fact, RE prices are now headed south in Gr Vanc and will spur an ever greater exodus in the various satellite plays like Toronto, Victoria, Calgary, Ottawa and even Montreal. None of this would have occurred had the local market here not morphed into in a no rules, no questions asked, all you can launder housing franken-fest.

Just me
Guest
Just me

This is a negative factor for Vancouver. High Toronto price growth put pressure on the Feds. That pressure has now been reverted and the politicians are all to eager to step in and bail the market out.

Doomcouver
Guest
Doomcouver

The bailouts will come too late, just like the curbs were too late. By the time the bailout arrives the market will probably be in free-fall. Governments are always late to the party.

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

vanc led the charge up, then froth formed in toronto and elsewhere after FBT introduced and everyone and their mother figured out HAM was the main reason prices went parabolic here. should vanc continue to roll over, the rest of cda will topple like dominos

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29
Doomcouver
Guest
Doomcouver

More nails in the coffin for Canadian real estate.

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29
Doomcouver
Guest
Doomcouver

Landlords like tenants that make as much income as possible. In a normal market, many of the current renters would have bought already. But the affordability crisis has some very high earning professionals that do not want to buy. They’re offloading the risk of a downturn onto their landlord, and because of poor rental yields they’re doing so at an extremely discounted rate. This is to the detriment of people on social assistance that can’t compete with other renters. Until the bobble pops it will be extremely difficult to fix the rental problem.

Just me
Guest
Just me

Fully agree with the analysis. That is exactly what is happening.
Politicians know it (to some extent) but are unwilling to deal with it. They just talk about social housing and other irrelevant nonsense.

Owen
Member
Owen

The city is in the awkward position of needing to deal with the problem without upsetting any locals (e.g. home owners). Hence a lot of scapegoating of foreigners, not wholly unfair but certainly exaggerated.

Owen
Member
Owen

Not an invalid perspective but I think it’s a little bit warped to fault professionals who don’t want to participate in a bubble. So long as the apartments are getting built and occupied it doesn’t really matter if they’re rented or owner-occupied.

KickThemOut
Member
KickThemOut

They are pushing out poor people like BPOM, Combat Roach, and Abdul into moldy basements, instead of west side SFH at $1K/month rent! How is that not a travesty?! Sheesh….

Abdul Lahazi
Guest
Abdul Lahazi

Poor?
I resemble that remark!

squeak
Member
squeak

By the sounds of it, majority of true Canadians are poor b/c of lame leaders, only industry is RE, wide open doors in the immigration department, Trudeau (lol), ongoing polarization of assets in the last 50 years-cooking the frog very slowly, middle class is fried: either you are 2% or a “0”, but hey, you have political correctness and politeness.
It’s all good!
NOT.

LS in Arbutus
Guest
LS in Arbutus

I think we can safely say that SFH on west side are currently NOT increasing in price, and are regularly selling for under assessed. Not massively, but 5% – 10% under. If this continues, how palatable is it to buy a $3 mm plus house when it has a zero to negative return? That’s a lot of opportunity cost to lose.

Doomcouver
Guest
Doomcouver

I think SFH will need to languish for a while longer to have the psychological impact necessary. They’ve been getting more expensive for so long speculators just think they’re taking a rest before the price shoots up again. If the market really locks up, marginal sellers will likely begin making massive price cuts just to force a sale. These huge price cuts will freak out the neighbors, and panic selling will start. Just a theory of how things may unravel though.

KickThemOut
Member
KickThemOut

You mean the neighbors that aren’t even living here?! Yeah, it will scare them all right.

Doomcouver
Guest
Doomcouver

Even if they don’t live here, foreign investors do not want to lose money. They may catch wind of it after the locals do, but they’ll find out about the falling value of their investments eventually.

CBM999
Guest
CBM999

Agreed. Westside is dead right now, but in 2009ish prices “took a break” and are double or triple now what they were then (at least listing prices are).

Give this about 12-18 months as it stands and it will start. Seems like a long time but it’s been so HOT for so LONG!

Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

Some will always fall into the bull trap.

oncebittwiceshy
Guest
oncebittwiceshy

Hey LS, join Just Me in his guilty pleasure at myrealtycheck.ca and it might give you a different perspective on the west side.

Genworth and CMHC were both hit hard by the 2016 regulations and that should give you a very good idea of how ripe this market is.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/cmhc-mortgage-housing-1.4137986

Not only did the market pick up a bit after these regulations came in, buyers with 20% down exploded. These are the poor saps that couldn’t deal with the stress test so they went to the bank of mom and dad or the closest subprime broker.

Toronto just might crash really hard but Vancouver will make it look like a slight pull back.

realist
Member
realist

According to the latest July stats from REBGV, SFH on the west side are currently appreciating in price: the 1, 3, 6, and 12 month change in price are all positive.

http://www.rebgv.org/sites/default/files/REBGV-Stats-Package-July-2017.pdf

Best place on meth
Member
Best place on meth

It makes no sense for prices to go up 1.1% with MOI sitting around 8.

Hyper-mega-Bull
Member
Hyper-mega-Bull

guys, how many more days until the real estate crash?

Just me
Guest
Just me

If you are a recent SFH buyer, the crash is already happening.

Owen
Member
Owen

I don’t pretend to know but Spring 2018 shows some promise:
– bump in starts begins turning into completions
– OSFI regs, new NDP policies, higher BoC rates in effect
– Empty homes tax actually starts to bite, and hopefully some loopholes closed based on experience from this year
– Oil prices may recover somewhat (or not)

KickThemOut
Member
KickThemOut

Uhmm… negative 3650 days? I thought the RE crash was happening all the way in 08/09? Bear was saying the crash is happening every day for the last 10 years now?

They had that Vancouver Bull/Bear battle map! The rollercoaster simulation! The downtown condo index! The anecdotal evidences of houses selling way below asking! Bullwhip’s failed flips!

How could there not be a crash when prices went up 100% to 200% already? 😛

Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

Don’t forget the fake dashcam blog and the hunger index.

oncebittwiceshy
Guest
oncebittwiceshy
How could there not be a crash when prices went up 100% to 200% already? <<<<< Hang on, weren't you the one singing Nortel's praises as well https://www.forbes.com/2006/05/17/nortel-networks-0517markets09.html# “An investment in Nortel may be appropriate for long-term minded investors,” wrote analyst Mark Sue in a research note Wednesday. “Near-term however, Nortel has experienced some deals slipping and its first-quarter results will be below consensus views.” https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nortel At its height, Nortel accounted for more than a third of the total valuation of all the companies listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX), employing 94,500 worldwide, with 25,900 in Canada alone.[3][34] Nortel's market capitalization fell from C$398 billion in September 2000 to less than C$5 billion in August 2002, as Nortel's stock price plunged from C$124 to C$0.47. When Nortel's stock crashed, it took with it a wide swath of Canadian investors… Read more »
SpacedOut
Guest
SpacedOut

That’s a hell of an argument for continued re appreciation. Well done. Nice to see someone adding some value to the conversation. Keep it coming.

KickThemOut
Member
KickThemOut

How low can these scums get? Why are we importing these scums from China who simply shreds our moral fabric and basic ethics?

Man deliberately infect women with HIV via unprotected sex.

http://vancouversun.com/news/local-news/police-allege-abbotsford-man-kept-hiv-positive-status-from-multiple-sex-partners

Owen
Member
Owen

No race has a monopoly on deplorable behaviour.

Best place on meth
Member
Best place on meth

Race has nothing to do with behavior whatsoever.

Just me
Guest
Just me

Lately one of my guilty pleasures with my morning coffee is to look at this:

http://www.myrealtycheck.ca/

KickThemOut
Member
KickThemOut

Ragging gang wars, thanks to Oracle’s brothers and relatives. He wants to bring in more! Why are we tolerating such scums in this great country of ours? Reminds me of the old saying, the only good Indian is a …..

http://vancouversun.com/news/local-news/police-grapple-with-warring-gangs-and-public-shootings

Best place on meth
Member
Best place on meth

…..standing on a sinoman’s throat Indian?

KickThemOut
Member
KickThemOut

Hmmm…..I wonder what those unlabeled meats are? Dog meat? Cat? Rat? Worms & insects?

Looks like our meat processing plants have been sold out to foreigners too.

http://www.vancouversun.com/health/sausages+tested+meat+label+study/14028392/story.html

KickThemOut
Member
KickThemOut

Good luck trying to afford urban oasis. Seriously, the NDP should ban private condo ownership period. All condos build by developers should be given on a need basis and rent not more than 30% of income. NDP should also set annual condo units target to various developers as well. It is time we take back our homes!

http://vancouversun.com/homes/buying-selling/etoile-adds-to-brentwood-town-centres-urban-appeal

KickThemOut
Member
KickThemOut

What’s the chance of this get implemented? Pretty much zero because we know NDP are a bunch of incompetent back peddlers who can’t get anything done.

Oh wait, I forgot, we need to give these bunch of lazy bums time!! After all vacation is much more important than righting all the destruction by BC Libs. Somehow all the urgency to fix stuff is gone once their little coup succeeded. Voters are now in someone’s word – ADHD kids to holding NDP to their words.

Abdul Lahazi
Guest
Abdul Lahazi

“We expect buyers from the Brentwood area for sure – people who have lived there for a long time and kids who have grown up in the area,” said George Wong, principal at Magnum Projects, the company that is marketing Etoile. “But the map that people are looking at for buying property in the Lower Mainland has expanded a lot in recent years, so we’ll be seeing people from places like Vancouver, the Tri-Cities and Coquitlam as well.”

Ya sure. We all know most of the buyers will be offshore speculators.

Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

Actually, we know that most of them will be locals.

Just me
Guest
Just me

Blah blah blah…. and earth is flat.

Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

We have the data. Either quit ignoring it or, instead, accept that your opinions aren’t based on reason but something more sinister.

Or are you actually trying to claim with a straight face that the majority of buyers are offshore speculators?

Abdul Lahazi
Guest
Abdul Lahazi

Or “friends and family”.

Abdul Lahazi
Guest
Abdul Lahazi

or “friends and family.”

Abdul Lahazi
Guest
Abdul Lahazi

While Vancouver and Toronto chill out, Montreal home sales post best July in 8 years:

https://app.tmxmoney.com/news/cpnews/article?locale=EN&newsid=TGB1332&mobile=false

This could not have anything to do with those pesky foreign buyers now, could it?

Just me
Guest
Just me

You forgot that, apparently, foreign buyers don’t matter. And if they do, they only matter for certain areas and periods, but they are just a distraction from the true problem (these crazy locals overleveraging on multi-million dollars homes!)

Of course, the fact that both Vancouver and Toronto introduced foreign buyers’ taxes (while Montreal did not) has nothing to do with it. Right?

Whatever it is, these “non-existent” foreigners will soon realize that the Toronto tax is just a joke, like the Vancouver tax, and they need not go to Montreal after all. All they need is a local proxy to channel their money.

Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

Guy who posts neo-Nazi links blames foreigners without a shred of evidence. Shocking.

Given that the median price of a SFH is $320,000 has it not occurred to you that when compared with other parts of the country Montreal would appear to be a smoking hot deal right now and locals can actually afford those prices without blowing their brains out on mortgage debt?

Is there any market dynamics, anywhere, you don’t attribute to foreigners?

Just me
Guest
Just me

Just for the record I neither visited nor posted any neo-nazi links.
I am not sure who you are referring to. I do stand by my view that China mainland money is an important (certainly not marginal) driver of Vancouver RE prices. This is not a racist statement, and I resent any such implication.

Please thread carefully when referring to other posters. Your obsession with racism should be tempered by respect for other contributors.

Abdul Lahazi
Guest
Abdul Lahazi

I think he/she/it is referring to me but I don’t care.

Combat roach
Guest
Combat roach

You don’t have to justify it , that court jerk is utterly fubared due to some twisted disorder that drives his racial witchhunt or due to consumption of very bad opiates acquired from China. His derogatory qualifications of others are not only laughable or pathetic but rather unbearably meaningless.

patriotz
Member

“those pesky foreign buyers”

As trends go, it’s still a relatively tiny one — the 425 foreign buyers accounted for only 1.3 per cent of all real estate transactions between January and June 2017.

Or maybe this.
http://globalnews.ca/news/3348591/quebec-budget-economy-canada/

QuantRhet
Guest

Rent for 1BR in Vancouver are now sitting at $1900 for July. http://quantitativerhetoric.com/monthly-rental-report-july-2017.html

Best place on meth
Member
Best place on meth

Padmapper’s rental rates are fake stats.

Owen
Member
Owen

I compared to Craigslist recently when I saw a Padmapper claim about median rents and thought it was wrong. Turns out it was almost exactly the same, but of course that also includes furnished, some short term, and stuff that is just never going to rent for the advertised amount.

Ulsterman
Member

$1900 is just crap. My mother in law works as a building manager and manages four buildings (about 70 units) around Granville & 13/14 and one near Main & 8th (more expensive than the Granville area). Her Granville one beds go for $1350 (smaller unit) to about $1450. The Main one beds are more like $1650.

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

Metro Vancouver air quality worse than Beijing
http://globalnews.ca/news/3649748/metro-vancouver-air-quality-worse-than-beijing-st-pauls-respirologist/

>>> imagine if/when this becomes a more regular occurrence and everything we once took for granted no longer exists?

Abdul Lahazi
Guest
Abdul Lahazi

So those surgical masks we see all the chineeze wearing now have a purpose!

Best place on meth
Member
Best place on meth

It has nothing to do with air quality, they heard SARS was back.

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

Canadians about to learn hard truths about soft economic policy
https://www.biv.com/article/2017/8/canadians-about-learn-hard-truths-about-soft-econo/

Just me
Guest
Just me

Admin, I tried to post a few snippets from this excellent article. But they are blocked. I am just citing the article: what is wrong?

Best place on meth
Member
Best place on meth

“What was a trickle of foreign investment a decade ago has become a flood. By some estimates, China will export more than $1 trillion of real estate-bound investment in the next decade. Roughly 10% or $100 billion of this is earmarked for Canada.”

You don’t say?

But how does that affect real estate prices?

The majority of buyers (over 50%) are locals, I’ve heard.

Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

If only you’d bothered to compare that $10bn per year against the total national annual transaction volume of about $260bn.

(It’s also half the $20bn or so that Canadians spend annually on US real estate)

Just me
Guest
Just me

Now you believe the numbers, right? Anything that makes your case?
What a joke.

Best place on meth
Member
Best place on meth

Shameless, shifty, slimy fuckers will try to distract people by dragging national stats into the debate.

Everyone knows the locusts are primarily laundering in YVR and YYZ.

Everyone, even the traitors.

Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

We also have stats for those cities. You ignored them – remember?

Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

Oh good Lord, please tell me you’re kidding? You’ve completely missed the point again. I’m not saying that numbers are correct, I’m laughing at the fact that he paraded some numbers which he clearly didn’t understand and are also consistent with the other stats he chooses to ignore.

Don’t make me spell it out to you every time, it’s really annoying.

Just me
Guest
Just me

How did the koolaid taste? Delicious?

Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

That’s your best counter-argument yet. Give yourself a pat on the head.

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

Watch Justin Trudeau’s response to a direct question about Vancouver housing prices
http://www.straight.com/news/944596/watch-prime-minister-justin-trudeaus-response-direct-question-about-vancouvers-housing

patriotz
Member

Here I will give you a translation:

Your province has just elected an NDP/Green government that campaigned on promises to make housing affordable and they have to the power to do it on their own. They have also PO’d me and my friend Rachel over that pipeline. Don’t expect me to stand in for them if they don’t deliver – I have the whole country to worry about, not just Vancouver.

Just me
Guest
Just me

It sounds about right. Justin Trudeau stopped just short of endorsing Christy Clark in the last BC election: it is clear he would have preferred a corrupt, but friendly politician in Victoria.

Trudeau is showing is true colors. And they are not pretty.

Best place on meth
Member
Best place on meth

His true colours run the entire spectrum of the rainbow, and then some.

Oh boy, I hope he’s coming to the pride parade this weekend!

squeak
Member
squeak

I do not think he is capable of running a country, I have not seen anything yet that has made me think this guy has an impressive intellect. Nothing.

He has to go, just leave. We need real leaders, not nepotism.

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29
squeak
Member
squeak

I think the question at this point in the game should be:
What is a young person to do? The “City” had already their chance and threw it away.

Don’t get pregnant.
Leave BC
Work elsewhere in Canada where you get 1/ paid 2 /build a career using your degrees (starbucks don’t count) 3/ build equity
Take great care when voting.

paulb
Member

New
146
Price Change
52
Sold
117
TI:9667

http://www.clivestevepaul.com

Best place on meth
Member
Best place on meth

Horgan hosting $500-a-head golf fundraiser at Bear Mountain; Weaver teed off

http://vancouversun.com/news/politics/horgan-hosting-500-a-head-golf-fundraiser-at-bear-mountain-weaver-teed-off

I can’t believe none of the ADHD kids on the blog haven’t posted this with subsequent squeals of “see, same old NDP!” or something to that effect.

Maybe I missed it.

Anyway, he shouldn’t be doing this and he had better be right when he says it’s the last time.

YVR
Guest
YVR

Last time. LOL. When he gets caught next time he will say it is a different golf course and that by “last time” he meant last time at bear mountain. Anyway more fractures in the Green/NDP alliance. Horgan is one crappy leader. He was gifted premier and he is doing everything in his power to screw it up.

Best place on meth
Member
Best place on meth

There won’t be a next time.

When the legislature reconvenes after summer break, one of the first bills to be voted on will be the one banning corporate/union donations.

Just me
Guest
Just me

Now, why am I not surprised? Is it possible she might have lied?

“MLA says Christy Clark overstated caucus’ desire for her to remain party leader. In her resignation speech, Clark said every single caucus member wanted her to stay on as Liberal leader ”

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/mla-says-christy-clark-overstated-caucus-desire-for-her-to-remain-party-leader-1.4236558

In her resignation speech as leader of the B.C. Liberal Party, Christy Clark emphasized that every one in her caucus — “every single person” — had asked her to stay on as leader but at least one caucus member says that’s not what happened.

Darryl Plecas, the Liberal MLA for Abbotsford South, said while he doesn’t want to get into the specific details of what happened inside the caucus meeting, Clark misspoke.

“I had it made it very clear that that wouldn’t include me,” Plecas told guest host Richard Zussman on CBC Radio One’s On the Coast.

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

Who’s up for starting a dedicated political party? Agenda:

1) To reduce immigration to per capita USA levels.

2) Restrict property ownership to Canadian Citizens only.

We may be called racists and will have to put up with hell, but what do we have to lose? I think we need to organize.

Easily can get hundreds of thousands behind us if there is a coordinated effort. The MSM will try to derail us but if we had hacker groups like the Anonymous behind us, we can get it done.

Enough is enough.

Dave
Member

If the NDP bring in PR, it will favour the creation of parties like this and you could hold the balance of power.

I think it’s s terrible idea for the NDP though because it will fracture their party. The union types will be first to leave. Then the Marxists, feminists, social engineers, etc…

Just me
Guest
Just me

On the other hand, without PR many issues of our time will be unsolvable.
For example, the extreme abuse of our immigration system by highly motivated China mainland investors using students and families as proxies to channel money. No mainstream party at any government level has shown an appetite for stopping that. Yet, there is clearly a large share of the population that disapproves (arguably a majority in Vancouver). PR would help with representing these people through the democratic process.

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

That’s cause their backrooms are infiltrated by the real estate industry. Trust me on this.

specuskeptic
Member

I don’t trust you on that or anything. Self-admitted liars and sock-puppet masters have zero credibility. Zero.

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

I’m betting the NDP backtrack on Poportional Rep.

If it happens, expect a new party to rise up. It won’t be started by people like us as we are already on the radar.

But be assured, if Por Rep happens, the new party will have legions of volunteers to get the word out.

Best place on meth
Member
Best place on meth

They can’t backtrack, it’s a condition of Green support.

Bestplaceonearth
Guest
Bestplaceonearth

Your NDP saviors already broken promises to the green about the fundraising. Good luck waiting for hand out.

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