Canada, economy, mortgage, predictions, rates

The Triple Rate Hike Year

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It’s been so long since rates were rising we’ve forgotten what it’s like, and yet it seems the tide is turning. Southseacompany points out this article over at the Financial Post: Three rate hikes this year?

The Bank of Canada raised interest rates on Wednesday, surprising many, and left the door open to more rate hikes in 2017 even as it pledged to pay attention to how higher borrowing costs would hit Canada’s indebted households.

To find out what a bunch of economists think, read the full article here.

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[…] –BC Realtors to be banned from dual agency –Toronto sales plunge –Montreal on the rise –Loonie going up – […]

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Best place on meth

I can’t believe the NDP haven’t fixed all the housing issues yet, it’s been weeks since they’ve formed government!!

Don’t tell me the legislature hasn’t had its first sitting yet, that’s no excuse.

If they don’t get everything solved first thing tomorrow, I swear to god I will WET MY PANTS, then cry some more!

Eby, where the fuck are you?!!

What? You’re not the housing minister?

DOESN’T MATTER!!!

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YVR

You will be able to copy and paste that email this time next year.

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Best place on meth

If they’ve done nothing 12 months from now, fair enough.

I expect some major moves this month and next on the housing file.

If Horgan doesn’t cancel Krusty’s welfare program for first time buyers, I will be disgusted.

This is first and foremost.

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Oracle

12 months?

It’s now or never man. Otherwise you living in delusionville.

They’ve done everything else but nothing on housing. All it takes on housing is TaLKING down the market. They didn’t even do that!

Now their people are lining up as lobbyists. Read the Tyee. Pay to Play it seems!!!!

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Shut It Down Already

Yes, imagine how hard it is for them to state clearly that they plan on carrying through their campaign promises. That takes weeks, if not months longer than cancelling a bridge.

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AngloMan

Blimey – about time i commented here.
Okay, I’ve been lurking here since 2008. Ive seen names come and go, bought and sold (in Jan) in that time too. Can someone tell me I’m wrong, but are the Stats this week rather odd? Seems like the bubble may be bursting, even before the latest .25 rate rise.

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AngloMan

Well , maybe not bursting at this point, but it seems inventory is ramping up pretty quick. I know this little seasonal too, but this much?

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Shut It Down Already

Try bitching about Chinese people rather than real estate market data if you want to get a response here.

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AngloMan

As i have noticed for several years now.
I actually remember a time on here when the foreign buyer arguments were civilized.
You nailed it actually: my rational for never posting is my unwillingness to join in race debates.
Maybe i will disappear again!

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Shut It Down Already

There are better RE blogs if you want actual discussion. They usually have moderation to keep away the riff-raff.

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paulb

New
257
Price Change
58
Sold
95
TI:9628

http://www.clivestevepaul.com

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Spec

I wonder of low interest rates, lax lending and foreign investment are driving up investment where Jim’s selling RE? http://www.nova-magazine.net/televangelist-jim-bakker-is-now-selling-real-estate-in-heaven/

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patriotz

““I’m urging people to make these regular donations so we can offer up special prayers to guarantee their homes in heaven,” the pastor said.”

Where is Martin Luther when you need him? Funny how today’s evangelical Protestants have become a bad parody of yesterday’s Catholics.

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CBM122

Interesting House Listing in East Van.

Looking for other’s opinions…….Am I missing something here? Listed at almost $3M for the last 2-3 months with constant open houses and no price reductions in a neighbourhood where houses are SELLING around $1.1-$1.2M. It’s a standard 50ft lot in the neighbourhood and doesn’t look like anything special at all.

What’s so special about this one? Doesn’t the realtor have anything better to do than have an open house every weekend?

https://www.realtor.ca/Residential/Single-Family/18411639/2735-OXFORD-STREET-Vancouver-British-Columbia-V5K1N5

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Abdul Lahazi

This is why:
“Appetizers to be served on Sunday during the open house. “

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Bear Vancouverite

2016 Assessed: $1,805,200
2015 Assessed: $1,374,200

Way overpriced, and not in any sort of upcoming city density plan. Maybe there’s something there we don’t see but other buyers will wonder why its double the price of BC Assessment’s nearby sales history.

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Dave

A 71 unit condo project just got cancelled because the developer walked from the deal.

http://vancouversun.com/business/commercial-real-estate/vancouver-condo-developer-blames-city-hall-for-cancellation-of-langara-west-on-cambie

It’s taken the City more than 2 years to approve the project and they got stuck over a stupid tree.

In Soviet Vancouver, growing trees and potatoes are more important than housing people.

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Abdul Lahazi

And backyard chicken coops.

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Abdul Lahazi

I smell a rat here. They will “sell” for 3x what it was originally worth to another company they are involved with and re-market it for a huge profit because the people that originally bought in have paid too little.

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patriotz

It’s pretty clear to me that the real reason they canceled is because they thought selling the land now will get them a better return with no risk than talking the project to completion and getting at best pre-sale prices from two years ago. In fact that’s pretty much what the UDI person said: McMullin emphasized she wasn’t familiar with the exact financial details of the Langara West case, but, in general “with super high land costs, if developers can’t get permits and it’s taking too long, they can say, ‘I’m out.” They can stop it and sell the land. And of course there’s that little issue of an NDP/Green government that has no say in the development, but may take on RE speculators, e.g. those pre-sale buyers, who might walk themselves. Also, do you think it’s ethical for a… Read more »

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YVR

If the units average 900 sq ft they are supposedly worth $450K more each than the presale buyers paid. Pay the buyers $25K each as compensation, sell the land to another numbered company, resubmit permits with a new name and you make 71 x $425K net each unit more or $32 million extra on the project. Probably worth the hassle. I suspect we see more of this. It leaves 71 buyers of one-, two- and three-bedroom condos who, starting two years ago, locked into pre-sale contracts of around $700 to $900 a square foot with nothing but an offer from the developer to return their deposits, “plus an additional 50 per cent of their paid deposit as further compensation. For your $49,390 deposit, that means you will receive a total payment of $74,085.” That’s little consolation in an area where… Read more »

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would-be buyer

The “loss of project financing” caught my eye. This is a Chinese company. Were they relying on bank loans from China, which China is now cracking down on or was it local banks? Or a lie?

Vivagrand said in an email, “the project will not be re-marketed and the property will be sold. This was an incredibly difficult decision, which was driven by extensive permitting delays, sharply rising construction costs and the subsequent loss of project financing.”

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Just me

The Law Society of British Columbia has ordered the suspension of West Vancouver lawyer Donald Gurney for six months for professional misconduct in letting $25 million of offshore cash flow into the country.

http://vancouversun.com/news/national/west-vancouver-lawyer-to-be-suspended-over-25-million-in-suspicious-transactions

Lenient and insufficient. This kinfd of legal cases are what Eby and the NDP should address in tomorrow’s Throne Speech. They need to find ways to stop these illicit flows that enriching few and making life miserable for many,

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Best place on meth

The article doesn’t say where the offshore money came from.

That means it could have come from ANYWHERE. Literally ANY ONE of 200 countries.

It’s very mysterious as I have LITERALLY NO idea which country that money could have come from.

It’s a total crap shoot, I’m not even going to bother trying to guess.

Prolly Norway tho.

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YVR

“ANYWHERE. Literally ANY ONE of 200 countries.”

Good thing the lawyer was a white male otherwise the law society would have had to let this one go or at least conceal the name.

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Oracle

Your setting yourself up for a big dissapointment.

Watch and see in 18 or so hours.

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Just me

After rate hike, Canadian housing braces for ‘biggest rule change of all-time’

http://business.financialpost.com/personal-finance/mortgages-real-estate/after-rate-hike-canadian-housing-braces-for-biggest-rule-change-of-all-time

Benjamin Tal, deputy chief economist, has lobbied against the latest OSFI changes to the uninsured market because he thinks it’s just too much for the real estate sector to absorb. “They are getting a lot of feedback from the industry. I wouldn’t be surprised given the increase in rates and the slowing in Toronto, that we might see them not change but postponing the change,” said the economist.

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Oracle

Hot air. Watered down version will become law.

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Burnabonian

Eby isn’t doing anything because he doesn’t have to. There is already a torpedo in the water.

Rate hikes and stress tests are the perfect haircut for Vancouver Specuvestors because they pose no risk to median Canadians buying median Canadian homes anywhere.

But Vancouver “consultants” holding 1.5MM in stated income mortgages consigned by their nurse wife just lost the ability to renew under any circumstances.

As of this fall, anyone buying Van SFH who doesn’t have cash on the barrel head has been gently asked to sit out.

Now we will find out how much this market really is driven by mythical suitcase full of cash types.

Reminds me of a scene from Das Boot. All you bulls with renewals coming up better pray for a shovel full of sand.

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Just me

That is a silly argument.
Since there are other forces at work that might mitigate house prices, we should condone money laundering and tax evasion? If the NDP subscribes to this view of the world, they need to be kicked out pronto.

I am so far deeply disappointed by the NDP and Eby. They have not made a sound about reform of housing taxation and measures to counter the blatant money laundering taking place in Vancouver and surrounding areas. This is shameful and should be fixed starting with the throne speech tomorrow.

Not all voters forget about these promises. Housing is the defining issue of our times. If you miss that, your political life ends (as Christy Clark knows well).

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Burnabonian

Not saying he should, just that he will!

Real estate is a sht sandwich and nobody wants to take a bite.

Eby is as slithery as the rest of them and will go out of his way to blame what happens next on everyone but himself.

He was principled while it suited him. A perfect politician.

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Just me

And just as I said, if they do nothing on housing they will pay for it. The key reason the Liberals got kicked out of office was (…drumroll…) housing.

If the NDP does not do anything significant to reduce house prices, they will pay a heavy price. Guaranteed.

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Burnabonian

No NDP action is required! The bombs are away! Our Prime Minister’s beautiful teeth have already resolved the housing crisis! This spring you could qualify for a new mortgage or a renewal at 2.7% By Christmas it will be 5.2%. HOOO LEEEE SHEEEEIIITTTT. Think about how much capital they have removed from the Vancouver market. That trickling you hear is the sound of liquid sht running down the legs of the cockiest bulls in the Starbucks. THE MONEY IS GONE. THERE IS NO ONE LEFT TO FLIP TO. And to make matters worse, (better?) the median holder of Van/Burnaby/Coq/NVan/WVan SFH is also going to fail at RENEWING. Just wait until you read MLS listings that say FORCED SALE. Does that sound like someone who is in a position to negotiate? This is a generational catastrophe and no ham-handed intervention from… Read more »

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Just me

Such optimism needs to be substantiated. I will believe it when I see it. Previous changes have also been hailed as game changers (and we all know what happened). Loopholes and “adjustments” have made sure that the whole game kept on going unchecked.

As far as I am concerned, I believe that the Vancouver market will crash only when we get serious about money laundering and tax evasion by Chinese mainlanders. And I have a bad feeling in the pit of my stomach that measures to discourage money laundering and tax evasion will not be part of tomorrow’s throne speech. If that was the case, I would be extremely angry.

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Combat roach

Discouraging money laundering and tax evasion could be seen as racist hence better not touching it at all.

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Oracle

Are you that gullible? The stress tests will never become law. And rates are irrelevant if foreign $ involved.

Naive will believe that the stress tests and rising interest rates are game changers.

LMAO at the naivety

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Burnabonian

I think that it depends on where you think that *most* of the capital comes from. If you think that only a small fraction of it comes from Canadian mortgages, (i.e. most dollars spent on Vancouver RE are from overseas,) then lending regulations would be irrelevant. But if you think that a large proportion of greater Vancouver sales are financed by Canadian debt, (i.e. Canadians trying to get into the market and Canadians flipping to each other,) you know that drying up the supply of that debt will crush prices. You know this because you watched what happened when Americans had a slightly harder time getting mortgages: Forced sales and foreclosures begin, dragging down the value of all surrounding properties, leading to more forced sales and foreclosures. Do you realistically believe that very few properties in greater Vancouver have Canadian… Read more »

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YVR

Actually it is not about forced sales and foreclosures that starts a bust. That happens years later. It is less buyers qualifying the starts the bust, then less buyers qualifying and less buyers interested in buying once prices start going down. Then comes the forced sales once prices are way down and banks want their money. This includes HAM who may have a big down payment but now with no verifiable income will not get financing or refinancing under the new rules.

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Whistler or Bust?

Where is Eby?

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Oracle

Laughing all the way to the bank while setting up an Eby foundation.

Hearing reports that tomorrow’s throne speech only contains vague Housing language. Specifics include the 114,000 housing units. But not over 4 yrs as they promised. Timeline change…much longer timeframe.

No 2% tax.

They will repeal the FBT by stating it did. It have the intended effect. But over the course of the year so they can implement the 2% tax.

Fool me once…

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Burnabonian

NDP will get the chance to brand themselves as the good guy.

While prices fall and families go bankrupt, they will repeal LTT and FBT and every other damn thing. Feds will take the blame for our suffering as always.

Poor people are the NDPs base. They need to manufacture as many as possible in the next 4 years.

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Abdul Lahazi

Poor people are one thing we will never run out of.

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YVR

“Poor people are one thing we will never run out of.”

Yup, Vision Vancouver and the NDP will see to that. It is their base. With prosperity they wouldn’t get enough votes. Counter productive for them.

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southseacompany

“Expect anger as Poloz pulls the punch bowl: Don Pittis”, CBC

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/canada-interest-rates-1.4276955

“Stephen Poloz has swiped the punch bowl and, just like at a real party, some Canadians deprived of their means of staying happy are going to switch from flying high to furious.”

“Expect anger from investors, the real estate industry, construction and exporters. Expect business concerns about the rising cost of capital. Expect protests that the increase was not needed and statements about how central banks cause recessions. Expect complaints that the bank has interfered in markets, even though few complained when they interfered to push rates down.”

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Best place on meth

Expect McLister the crybaby to have the biggest meltdown in the history of real estate.

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bullwhip29

Sockeye salmon runs are so bad on the Fraser River that fisheries officers have ramped up enforcement against recreational anglers off the shores of Steveston
http://www.richmond-news.com/news/fisheries-officers-ramp-up-patrols-on-fraser-river-1.22447764

>>> more weasel like behavior from the usual cast of characters. certainly this is being done in the dark of night with the goods whisked away in the trunks of mercedes and bmw’s. there are also a couple of rats selling bulk but undersized dungeonous crabs all over richmond for 50-75% off typical retail prices. best part of all was that saw several “seafood” hot pots with gas burners blazing at garry point park over long weekend in contravention to the fire/bbq bylaws which are currently in effect

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Hyper-mega-Bull

Probably just more talk and no action.

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bullwhip29

After near miss, Angela Pong warns that busy Richmond crosswalk is an accident waiting to happen
http://www.richmond-news.com/news/someone-could-die-here-pedestrian-1.22466882

>>> one could say the same thing about every other street, alley, parking lot or residential driveway in Richmond where accidents bordering on the ridiculous (but rarely reported by msm) occur on nearly an hourly basis

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KickThemOut

3 more hikes this year? Bring it on! Maybe Poloz would grow a pair and raise it 50bps next time. I love it because what goes up must also come down. And remember 08/09 when mortgage rate went up to over 5% in a hurry? Lots of my “stupid” bull friends who put $$$ where their mouth is got caught with renewal at 2.5% to 3%+ higher rates. Results? They are still doing pretty well and enjoy low rates after 2 or 3 years by keeping their term short.

Bears who hid and didn’t put $$ where their mouth is? Didn’t do so good did they?

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KickThemOut

Useful idiots, Kim must be laughing so hard that his fat belly is hurting.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cX90DjMYvJY

Watch and learn bears, Don’t be useful idiots

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KickThemOut

Bad news Meth head, looks like China also stole latest US transformer technology, or Trump sold them to China for trademark rights.

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/chinese-robotics-artist-makes-real-life-transformers-023103529.html

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KickThemOut

Not looking too good for Apple

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/huawei-now-sells-more-smartphones-080400135.html

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bullwhip29

space, you don’t get it at all. HAM wants the real thing, not a knock off. the whole point of the exercise is to flaunt those illgotten gains, not show to your friends and family that you can’t afford the finer things in life. imho the lineups, crowds, rioting, hoarding and reselling will be epic for the iPhone 8 and completely bat$hit crazy for the 8.8 special edition in chinese red. timmy might not be the innovator steve jobs was but he is one heck of a good businessman and certainly recognizes a sure thing when he sees one. expect an extended sales cycle for the 8 series (in all of its variations, upgrades etc) which will easily make this the best selling product they ever made

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bullwhip29

CBC investigative reporter Natalie Clancy pores over hundreds of documents leaked to CBC News, which started a year long investigation into the $3.3 billion dollar Port Mann Bridge and highway widening project
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/inside-cbc-s-port-mann-bridge-investigation-1.4267767

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Abdul Lahazi

This new PM bridge was not needed at all and it is a boondoggle and a total waste of money. The old bridge was good for another 50 years minimum and could have been twinned for much less cost if really needed. The GE bridge is also a complete waste of money. The Pattullo replacement is where the money needs to be spent.

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Just me

Christy Clark should probably be investigated for the “donations” and other inducements she personally benefitted from. We are still (as of 2017) the far west of political donations.
NDP, reform?

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Best place on meth

Corruption, kickbacks, cronyism, boondoggles….

Yep, same old Liberals.

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bullwhip29

Montreal posts record August home sales as prices rise
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/montreal-posts-record-august-home-sales-as-prices-rise/article36194449/

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bullwhip29

B.C. realtors to be banned from dual agency as part of rule changes
http://vancouversun.com/news/local-news/b-c-realtors-to-be-banned-from-dual-agency-as-part-of-rule-changes

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KickThemOut

Realtors full employment act. If you think this is for helping consumers then you are dumber than a sack of potatoes.

Oh what am I saying…bears are so dumb comparing them to potatoes would insult potatoes.

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Best place on meth

How will the criminal locusts at New Coast be able to rip people off if they can’t double end anymore?

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Combat roach

Somehow, they will use their natural talent and unique set of skills.

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southseacompany

“Big banks raise consumer lending rates after Bank of Canada rate hike”, Financial Post

http://business.financialpost.com/news/economy/bank-of-canada-rate-hike-triggers-boost-to-consumer-lending-rates

“After the central bank’s move, Royal Bank said that it will increase its prime lending rate to 3.2 per cent from 2.95 per cent, effective Thursday. Bank of Montreal, TD Canada Trust, Bank of Nova Scotia and Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce will also raise their prime lending rates to 3.2 per cent.”

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KickThemOut

Yawn….wake me up when they raise their saving rates.

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Rip Van Real Estate

By then it will be too late.

It’s always the sleepiest before the dawn… the dawn of realization.

The alarm clock is ringing. Sleep in and miss the chance to cash out.

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Oracle

New West condos approaching $900/sq ft.

Fucking NDP retards allowing this to happen.

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KickThemOut

You get what you voted for buddy!

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Mick Murphy

Racist Customer Abuses Staff at Vancouver Tim Hortons

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZXlmhEJ4VlM

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Combat roach

Perhaps TH didn’t have shark fins soup that day and she felt offended?

Threatened whale shark found for sale in Vancouver. Shark fins are traditionally made into soup that is served as an expensive delicacy — it can cost more than $100 per bowl — at Chinese banquets for special occasions such as weddings.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/technology/shark-fins-1.4262628

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lala

That video was posted 3 weeks ago. Anyone else and it would be on the news in days. No wonder so many Chinese want to come here. They get a free pass on everything. Don’t even have to pay taxes.

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KickThemOut

I thought we have already taught these fuckers a lesson a few months back, but I guess not. Why are we kicking people like this out of this country? Only good stock Europeans with class & culture should be allowed to immigrate here.

http://globalnews.ca/news/3541934/woman-demands-white-doctor-clinic/

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Mick Murphy

Interesting that those incidents made national news but this one didn’t.

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KickThemOut

More examples of racists locusts behavior that we need to stomp out…

http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2017/08/24/vancouver-skytrain-passenger-goes-on-racist-rant-gets-called-out-by-passengers_a_23178680/

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