Friday Free-for-all! October 13th 2017

Happy Friday the 13th!

It’s time for another Friday Free-for-all, our regular end of the week news round up and open topic discussion thread for the weekend.

Here are a few recent links to kick off the chat:

CRA targets more presale buyers

Santa Claus may not be coming to town

international students leave after grad

ban building on farm land?

REITs under pressure

Toronto prices in free fall

So what are you seeing out there? Post your news links, thoughts and anecdotes in the comments section and have a magnificent weekend!

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patriotz
Member
Dude Chilling
Guest
Dude Chilling
Hyper-mega-Bull
Member
Hyper-mega-Bull

new signage on expo boulevard https://i.imgur.com/LCPLuEq.jpg

Dave
Member

My friend who speaks Mandarin says the translation is ‘Condo Pre-sales’.

Madashell
Guest
Madashell

Toronto condos being presold in Hong Kong for $50K discount
https://thinkpol.ca/2017/10/16/toronto-condos-being-presold-in-hong-kong-for-50k-discount/

KickThemOut
Member
KickThemOut

Because the developers are so fucking charitable that they would spend all the money to fly to HK, pay the hotel rentals costs, all just to sell the poor HK people condo at $50K less than what they can get here?

Dave
Member

The benefit of selling to overseas buyers is they buy in bulk and don’t complain about poor construction after possession.

history
Guest
history

Always the wholesaler, never the retailer…

More than one culture has this creed. Actually, just two. One in the West, of few people;,the other in the East, of many people.

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

Mitch Lagimodiere is proud of his hobbit hole, but already thinking about how to improve upon it when he feels, inevitably, that he will have to move and dig a new burrow
http://vancouversun.com/news/local-news/bunking-down-for-the-night-home-sweet-home-is-underground

Best place on meth
Member
Best place on meth

Here’s how much mortgage you can get today at 3% on 100K household income.

$700,000

After Jan 1 at 5% qualifying rate.

$570,000

That should put an end to bidding wars.

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

Your math is wrong. Lets see how I’m downvoted when I point out a fact.

Show an example that incorporates property tax and heating as they must be incorporated into a GDS calculation.

Show an example More like 700K to approx 600K with additional rental offsets of buying a home with a suite or a condo to rent out.

Do you really think they would crash the market. Naive.

YVR
Guest
YVR

Yes, and that does not even factor in all those measures the NDP have implemented…oh wait the NDP have done nothing.

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

LMAO. Many NDP have friends in credit unions. Rules don’t apply to them.

YVR
Guest
YVR

The BC credit unions are 100% backed by the BC government. The NDP has the power to implement the OSFI changes to all BC credit unions with the stroke of a pen. This is Carol James’ responsibility. Of course if the NDP don’t implement the changes it would not only be completely irresponsible to expose BC tax payers to all that subprime risk but it will again prove the NDP want to pump this bubble at all costs. My bet is they continue to do nothing, which in the end makes this OSFI changes more risky for BC tax payers who are now responsible.

oopswediditagain
Guest
oopswediditagain
Well, it looks like I got back into town at a very interesting time. So, it doesn’t look like the OSFI regulations were watered down by all of the respondents “wishes”. “Respondents asked whether the bulleted items (i.e., loans with insufficient income verification, loans to borrowers with low credit scores, loans to borrowers with high debt serviceability ratios, etc.) needed to all be present to define a loan as non-conforming or if the presence of any one of the bulleted items was sufficient.” It really gives you an indication of the wild west of lending practices that were available out there. <<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<< The BC credit unions are 100% backed by the BC government. The NDP has the power to implement the OSFI changes to all BC credit unions with the stroke of a pen. This is Carol James’ responsibility. <<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<… Read more »
Dave
Member

But they now have a plan to come up with a plan. That’s a big accomplishment half a year after the election.

YVR
Guest
YVR

“But they now have a plan to come up with a plan.”

I don’t think they are even that far along. The planning the plan stage is Fall 2018.

Dave
Member

You’re probably right. Amazing that the reality of this could be more sarcastic than my post.

I wonder how Horgan is playing this. Did he direct the Housing Minister to stand down or did he appoint somebody incompetent?

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

U.S. indicts Canadians, Chinese in major drug bust
http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/fentanyl-indictments-canada-china-1.4358241

>>> this should take a small nip out of the bustling Richmond economy…

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

So I’ve done some calculations on a $400,000 mortgage loan.

After Jan 1st:

$400,000 @5% for 25 years gives you a payment of approx $2324/month. Add to that property tax of $200/month and heating cost of $100/month. Total monthly payment is $2624. Total GDS cannot be higher than 35% of gross income. Doing some math means you need a minimum income of $89,000/year to qualify.

Today:

$400,000 at 2.8% gives payment of $1850. With property tax and heat equals $2150/month. Minimum income $73,700/year

Question becomes who is buying these million dollar homes??? Quite obvious foreign money is. Close FBT loopholes and institute a 2% 2nd home tax!!

YVR
Guest
YVR

“Question becomes who is buying these million dollar homes??? Quite obvious foreign money is. Close FBT loopholes and institute a 2% 2nd home tax!!”

Actually the million $ homes are not selling. Either way those locals buying with foreign money still need to prove income to get a mortgage and will need to prove income to take out a HELOC which provides down payments for second and third home purchases. Foreigners and their proxies are leveraged as much as locals so this will have the same impact.

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

the vast majority of people here already get this. borrowers on the fringe will simply have to get more creative in terms of sourcing out their DPs or opt for the CMHC route. this wont be a problem for HAM and those related to it as their main issue isn’t coming up with the required amount of cash but rather “refining” it in a manner that raises as few red flags as possible.

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

My bad. I see the loophole. Banks such as HSBC have started providing a 100% rental offset. Meaning if you rent out the place for $2100/month, you need only qualify for a $524/month payment. Banks making more $$ via fees as buyers have more loopholes to jump through.

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

The sinister view in all this is they want to sell more condos and less detached. Who could be behind such a plot? lol

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

the developers saw what the food co’s were doing with the miniaturization of packaging and shrinking the product and thought to themselves, gee, what a great idea…

Time to go
Guest
Time to go

Well it’s happened, new mortgage qualifying rules coming Jan 1, 2018 courtesy of OSFI:

http://www.osfi-bsif.gc.ca/Eng/osfi-bsif/med/Pages/B20_dft_nr.aspx

So a rush to buy before xmas or a wait and see market? Time will tell, but should be interesting to watch. I think spring will see some price declines.

YVR
Guest
YVR

“So a rush to buy before xmas”

Or maybe a rush to list? Either way banks will be adopting the new rules immediately.

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

overall market seems pretty ho hum at best but my sister in law has been busier than ever in recent weeks, so what does that tell you?

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

No price declines unless they close FBT loopholes and institute the 2% 2nd home tax. These mortgage changes just make it harder for first time buyers.

Time to go
Guest
Time to go

How could prices not decline if you take out a whack of first time buyers? You think the inventory will just be absorbed by foreigners? Maybe in Richmond and West Vancouver, but certainly not in East Van, New West etc… I’ve see more desperate locals at open houses lately than anything else.

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

I’m skeptical. CMHC is going to announce that they are relaxing the qualification rules for self-employed. They’ll be able to adjust their income accordingly.

Now why not make a law where banks must obtain income information directly from CRA? That would crash the market.

Time to go
Guest
Time to go

Under the headline “Implementation” reads the paragraph:

Where possible, FRFIs are expected to comply with the principles and expectations set out in this guideline as of the date of this letter.

Not a lot of teeth in that, but still may cool a burst of activity before Jan 1.

Dude Chilling
Guest
Dude Chilling

England inflation rate hits 3% which is a 5 year high.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2017/oct/17/uk-inflation-wage-squeeze-mark-carney-bank-of-england-live

Interest rates will go up up up.

Combat roach
Guest
Combat roach

The utmost choice would be to hit Vancouver due to a commonality of sources that fucked up the city from the bottom-up.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/speaking-of-science/wp/2017/10/16/chinas-first-space-station-will-soon-crash-to-earth-no-one-knows-where-itll-hit/

China’s first space lab will soon crash to Earth. No one knows where it’ll hit.

Sometime within the next few months, te heavens will come crashing down. Tiangong 1, which translates to “Heavenly Palace,” is China’s first space laboratory, launched in September 2011,

Dude Chilling
Guest
Dude Chilling

The chinese toss their trash everywhere.

Combat roach
Guest
Combat roach

Right, but Vancouver already got used to it and even welcomes it. All kind of garbage…

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

Iconic Vancouver heritage mansion demolished despite protest
http://bc.ctvnews.ca/iconic-vancouver-heritage-mansion-demolished-despite-protest-1.3635039

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

here’s an older article…

https://beta.theglobeandmail.com/real-estate/vancouver/vancouver-heritage-landmark-electric-house-set-fordemolition/article36147230/

“The house was incredibly well preserved, both inside and out, which is very unusual, with the original woodwork in place,” Heritage Vancouver’s Patrick Gunn says

“It’s an example of everything that’s broken in Vancouver,”

Mr. Gunn had found someone who would have moved the house to another location, but it was costly, and it would have taken several months. The owner, Crystal Xu, was willing, but the development schedule couldn’t accommodate the move.

Dude Chilling
Guest
Dude Chilling

“It’s an example of everything that’s broken in Vancouver,” Mr. Gunn says. “From lack of heritage protection to land value only. It doesn’t matter what’s built on it. It’s about loss of character, and loss of social history.”

We should put City Hall up for sale. Then the chinese developers can tear that down as well. And leave Moonbeam inside they can have him for free.

Combat roach
Guest
Combat roach

It would make a terrific place up there on the hill for the city tallest luxury condo tower, named after the famous Chinese pop singer-songwriter Wanting Qu. Tower should also include the tallest flagpole for traditional celebrations

Dude Chilling
Guest
Dude Chilling

Thank you Crystal Xu for helping to destroy Vancouver. A city that you only care about for making money by destroying our history..

Dude Chilling
Guest
Dude Chilling

“Crystal” Xu. I doubt she cares too much.

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

But isn’t the onus on the local culture to preserve their heritage? From what I’m seeing in Vancouver, its becoming a more Asian city people wise and culturally. of course immigrants want the new land to look like the motherland. I can’t blame them. Its your policies.

Best place on meth
Member
Best place on meth

Locusts are incapable of feelings…..like shame.

Doomcouver
Member
Doomcouver

Don’t worry, the demolition crew will get more work in a few decades when the McMansion they put in it’s place is abandoned and riddled with black mold and has to be torn down. We should preserve this McMansion however, so people can remember when dumb Chinese people bought ridiculously overpriced houses, and ripped them down to put up shoddily constructed plywood monstrosities.

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

Battle over empty Steveston development heads to the public
https://globalnews.ca/video/3807353/battle-over-empty-steveston-development-heads-to-the-public/

>>> get ready for more coffee + bubble tea shops, HK style cafes, RE offices, daycares and maybe even a few more fake storefronts to round out another ruined neighborhood

Combat roach
Guest
Combat roach

At least one storefront should have aquariums with sea lions so tourists and foreigners can play and pet them securely and perhaps take them home as souvenirs.

http://vancouversun.com/news/local-news/sea-lion-attack-video-goes-viral-while-victim-and-family-vanishes

Doomcouver
Member
Doomcouver

Onni is about to get what they wanted all along. Marine use was never their plan. They’re a bunch of dirty con-men at Onni.

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

Why blame Onni? They playing by rules. Blame Trudeau (high immigration, birth tourism, etc) and the NDP (looked the other way on foreign money laundering).

Doomcouver
Member
Doomcouver

You don’t have any clue what you’re talking about do you? Onni was rubber-stamped to build a mixed use of marine retail and apartments. No marine businesses wanted to move in however. Now Onni is strong-arming the city to allow general retail, and the suspicion is they had no intention of letting their original “plan” materialize. It doesn’t have anything to do with Trudeau, it has to do with dishonest dirtbag developers that are around every corner in BC.

YVR
Guest
YVR

“No marine businesses wanted to move in however.”

More like no marine businesses wanted to move in at their asking rent. Of course they could rent them to marine related businesses if they lowered the asking rent. Richmond should just continue to hold out unless they get 100% of the lift for rezoning.

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

>>> a growing case of “nimbyism” in the former little sleepy town (and now bustling RE hotspot) of Victoria, BC where $1M+ homes are now a dime a dozen…

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/victoria-homeless-housing-mount-edwards-burnside-gorge-1.4357694

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

It’s quite evident that most renters on this site are clueless to the workings of the world around them.

Only thing I have left to say is Happy Hollow Eves and Happy Holidays. Then Feb budget will come where NDP will really lay out a plan LMAO.

After in the spring, we can talk about the fall referendum and say that’s when the real changes to housing will come. LMAO.

Then an election and NDP thrown out. LMAO

Doomcouver
Member
Doomcouver

It’s quite evident that most Oracle’s on this site are clueless to the workings of the world around them.

Regardless of government policy in Canada, this party is ending one way or another. The interest rate shock will be the great equalizer on either side of the Pacific ocean.

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

Really? Bond yields are down 10% in a week.

Doomcouver
Member
Doomcouver

No clue what charts you’re looking at. Canadian bond yields are up almost 20% over the past week, and USA bonds didn’t go up or down this past week.

paulb
Member

New
246
Price Change
73
Sold
125
TI:9858

http://www.clivestevepaul.com

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

Catalan independence leaders jailed in Spain
http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/catalonia-independence-jailed-1.4357462

>>> in a world where bubble after bubble is beyond fully inflated, we are all sitting and watching the likes of donald trump to shake things up (and some even say for the better). imho it will be a largely ignored story like this that will trigger what could be a series of detonations. then again, i could be wrong and the various leaders and officials from the US, n. korea, china, russia, japan, UK, france, canada and elsewhere might all be on the same page and executing everything according to plan (whatever that may be…)

Best place on meth
Member
Best place on meth

The EU is dead.

Austrian and Czech voters are following the Trump Train.

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

if spain and/or italy goes belly up for real then in the snap of a finger we’re right back to where we were several years ago

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

The NDP have stopped UBER in its tracks. Hahaha. Another lie.

Now they say no ridesharing until at least late 2018. Hahaha.

Now will you vote to throw these liars out? Start by voting NO in referendum. Otherwise you will have these liars in office forever.

Eby probably making loads of $$$ now.

Whistler or Bust?
Guest
Whistler or Bust?

Your cousins must be thrilled at the decesion.

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

You ok with the NDP lies? Good for you.

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29
Oracle
Guest
Oracle

Will be going much higher. I expect $2500 for 2 bedrooms in Valley within a few years.

Doomcouver
Member
Doomcouver

Why stop there oracle? I expect $50,000 a month for a 250 square foot micro-condo in Whalley within a decade. Because as we all know, renters will just pay whatever the going rate is….. oh wait no that’s homebuyers/speculators….. I get the two mixed up all the time, my bad. Nothing is a one-way bet, only morons believe that to be true.

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

We will see who is wrong. Immigrants will shack up 2 families per condo. Remember to think of me when you get priced out of rentals one day. when you look in the mirror, that looks going to be priceless.

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

Oh by the way, King George 2 berm new condo going to be listed for $699,000. Good luck!

Best place on meth
Member
Best place on meth

I expect your lies to exceed 25 per day by the end of the year.

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

Oh so you thought several years ago rent would be $2100 today?

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29
Doomcouver
Member
Doomcouver

This is the lamest thing that Gregor could have done to pretend to fix housing. So we get first crack at overpriced condos, big fat whoop. The Chinese will just get their permanent resident friends to buy then transfer ownership later. This is just a transparently pathetic attempt for Mayor Moonbream’s re-election bid, nothing more.

Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

So they’d pay PTT instead?

Best place on meth
Member
Best place on meth

At least he ended homelessness.

And by “ended”, I mean “expanded”.

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

So Morneau blinked after the ‘outrage’ and ‘blackmailing’ that he has given small business owners a tax break and did a 180 on income splitting.

See how the world works people? Yell the loudest and be proactive! That is why renters not important. All they do is ‘discuss’ things on a blog.

Now the discussion is what the NDP will do in the Feb Budget.

LMAO.

KickThemOut
Member
KickThemOut

So when can we regular salary drawing working serfs get income sprinkling / splitting?

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

Regular salary people are the suckers. And usually ones concerned about grammar and that. Worlds changed.

KickThemOut
Member
KickThemOut

Went to the final Whitecap season game on Sun with a group of buddies and holy crap is it the worse experience EVER! Got stuck in the Chinese “fan” section…75% of the section I was in, as well as the left and right sections were filled with Chinese! Some looked like they were from tour buses or something, all of them wearing stupid colored hats, with someone waves little flags guiding them around like school children. They were also just littering the floor with sunflower seeds shells, and yelling at each other in that incomprehensible languages of theirs. Seriously?! WTF Whitecap?! At least be considerate of your actual fans… Geez…

Combat roach
Guest
Combat roach

It sounds like you had a great time with homies cheering all together like at home at the Mao’s parade.

Dude Chilling
Guest
Dude Chilling

He is trying to be “clever” with his parallel parody of chinese to white baseball fans. He was not there nor where there any Chinese “fans”. He just likes to be a disagreeable shit disturber with everyone.

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

nah, he was likely there along with a whole boatload of other asians who were naturally sporting the requisite apparel (with the typical names, #s) and cookie cutter hipster hairdoes and only attended the final regular season game because the whitecaps started trending a few months ago. ditto for the canucks games circa 2011…now they are nowhere to be seen at rogers arena. suggestion for aquilini, linden and co to drum up some business…ticketholders, attendees to be entered into an aquilini condo presale draw where the winner gets some sort of BS VIP access or other perks…

KickThemOut
Member
KickThemOut

Says the people either too cheap to attend, or don’t have enough $$ to buy the tickets. Never mind the lack of support for local sports.

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

Passports for purchase: Open citizenship doors around the world
http://www.cnn.com/travel/article/multiple-passports-citizenship/index.html

Turns out money doesn’t just buy a glamorous vacation in the Caribbean or a killer suite in Quebec — it can buy residency too.

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

Poloz says Canadian growth will moderate in the second half of the year; “element of speculation” in the popular Toronto and Vancouver housing markets looks like it’s dissipated
https://beta.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/bocs-poloz-says-canadas-growth-to-slow-down-in-second-half-of-2017/article36593814

Doomcouver
Member
Doomcouver

Haha, “dissipated”, that’s ridiculous. He’s probably referring to the capital outflows getting choked off from China. The locals are still whipped into a frenzy buying tiny little condos for way too much money. He should look at Las Vegas in 2008 if he wants to see what speculation “dissipating” looks like. Maybe then he’ll be prepared for what Vancouver is going to look like in the next few years.

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

imho better comparison is miami

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

Eisman of ‘The Big Short’ Warns Canada Housing Heading for Slump With CIBC Most Exposed
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-10-16/eisman-warns-canada-housing-heading-for-slump-cibc-most-exposed

Dude Chilling
Guest
Dude Chilling

“Vancouver’s million-dollar home prices aren’t just straining buyers, they’re holding back investment and businesses, British Columbia’s Finance Minister Carole James said last week, vowing to look at every option on the table to cool the market.”

Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

I sometimes vow to look at every option on the dessert menu and then just ask for the bill anyway.

“Cooling” could also mean decreasing the rate of growth rather than lowering prices.

So many ways of weasling out.