Mortgage carrying costs to rise 8% next year

Scotiabank is forecasting a big bump in mortgage carrying costs:

New buyers can expect home ownership to become even less affordable next year as mortgage costs rise, while current owners will be largely insulated from higher rates.

Add it all up, and the bank forecasts that Canada’s housing market seems to have “peaked” and is expected to cool down from its recent breathtaking pace.

Read the full article here.

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[…] Southseacompany posted a link to this story about housing supply in the Vancouver area. […]

bullwhip29
bullwhip29
2 years ago

Vancouver’s Santa Claus Parade faces cancellation due to lack of funds
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/vancouver-s-santa-claus-parade-faces-cancellation-due-to-lack-of-funds-1.4351170

>>> i thought the big money corporate scene in this city was firing on all cylinders. why is this happening? don’t tell me concord pacific or some other RE entity will have to pony up the cash again…

Simple Solution
Simple Solution
2 years ago
Reply to  bullwhip29

More evidence that we are truly a “WORLD CLASS CITY”

bullwhip29
bullwhip29
2 years ago

to clarify i am now hearing that this is all part of the carefully orchestrated staging and that a donor is already in place who could very well be a RE related entity like a developer,lender, realtor. why just quietly write a cheque, proceed as planned without all the free publicity and pats on the back that come along with being a white knight? come to think of it, this seems to happen with regularity now, doesnt it?

southseacompany
southseacompany
2 years ago

“REITs under pressure as interest rates begin rising”, Globe & Mail

https://beta.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/globe-advisor/reits-under-pressure-as-interest-rates-begin-rising/article36470289/?ref=http://www.theglobeandmail.com&

“Real estate investment trusts seem to have it all: capital appreciation in a booming real estate market and generous payouts for income-thirsty investors in a decade-long interest rate drought.”

“But as central banks inch up their benchmark interest rates, REITs are coming under pressure.”

southseacompany
southseacompany
2 years ago

“Is increasing supply worsening Metro Vancouver housing affordability?”, Business In Vancouver

https://www.biv.com/article/2017/10/increasing-supply-has-worsened-housing-affordabili/

““What’s causing the supply shortage is the restrictive single-family home neighborhood zoning on 85% of our residential land base.” said Anne McMullin, president and CEO of the Urban Development Institute, Pacific Region.”

“But recent studies show the reverse is true: fewer people can afford to buy condominiums in the Metro suburbs that have seen the greatest increase in supply over the past two years.”

Just me
Just me
2 years ago

You don’t solve the tulip mania by making more tulip bulbs available. Clear enough?
Vested interests will say what they have to.

Best place on meth
Best place on meth
2 years ago

Things that will soon cease to exist:

1. Vancouver housing bubble
2. NAFTA
3. North Korea
4. Turdeau government
5. Hopefully oracle (seriously, fuck off you lying piece of shit)

Bonus: Both the Republican and Democrat parties.

Oracle
Oracle
2 years ago

WTF? Lying? Do enlighten.

Plus take your anger out on the NDP. Not me.

Shut It Down Already
Shut It Down Already
2 years ago

You should add the NFL to that list to really drive home the fact that you don’t have a mind of your own.

Oracle
Oracle
2 years ago

FFS, bring back the Liberals!

The NDP has got to be the most moronic officials in BC History. Reddit is exploding with hate and anger. NDP are done. Referendum is done.

FFS, can someone please tell the three stooges: Eby, Horgan, James

Mark
2 years ago
Reply to  Oracle

Show the proof on Reddit. You know the Liberals caused the real estate money laundering problem by taking down the crime task force.

Oracle
Oracle
2 years ago
Reply to  Mark

The FFS the NDP has been in power for almost half year and they haven’t done shit. Are people that fucking stupid that they can’t see that the NDP could have stopped this bubble in its tracks??

Bag it and tag it
Bag it and tag it
2 years ago
Reply to  Oracle

Please explain why you think the Liberals are a better option, unless of course you want prices to go up…you are exposing your fraud.

Doomcouver
Doomcouver
2 years ago

I think Oracle has Stockholm syndrome from 16 years of the Liberals screwing us over. Seriously if the NDP can’t get the job done on fixing housing there will be no good 3rd option. I’ll probably be voting for the vote-spoiling greens because they’re the only ones that haven’t had the opportunity to screw the electorate on housing affordability yet.

Best place on meth
Best place on meth
2 years ago
Reply to  Doomcouver

No, Oracle is just a fucking serial liar and huge Liberal supporter posing as someone concerned about high housing prices.

Oracle = CNN/NBC/NYT

Oracle
Oracle
2 years ago

Because if nothing is going to be done on housing, I’d rather have the corrupt Liberals in. NDP will just tax you and give others $10 daycare, $15 min wage, stop a pipeline etc.

Only voted NDP for housing. If they going to screw me over, then i want them out even if it means Liberals. At least they are straight shooters meaning developer friendly and launerding friendly.

Lost...but not leased
Lost...but not leased
2 years ago

Looked into the Translink deal to sell 13.8 acre Oakridge Transit Center ( from Vancouver Sun)

—-The total sales price was $440 Million ..drumm rooll……but structured payments to Translink till 2022?
Sounds like Expo Lands 2.0…what about this Oakridge properties past use and potential soil contamination ?

Apparently, $150 million will be dedicated to Broadway Millenial Line(and other Metro Vancouver Transit projects.)

Here’s the rub….WTF are they doing….is affordable housing a priority or not?

These expanded projects.such as Broadway..will likely follow the Cambie template ……ala after Translink projects routes are approved…rezone the adjacent properties to higher density in the name of _____???

IMHO….when Crown land is sold, there should be attached a priority list….here is an example of LOST opportunity.

paulb
paulb
2 years ago

New
195
Price Change
68
Sold
144
TI:10020

http://www.clivestevepaul.com

Lost...but not leased
Lost...but not leased
2 years ago

Not sure how many are aware of Steve Saretsky.., local realtor who is on YouTube and has a website as well. He did an approx 1/2 hour interview with David Eby before the election Eby noted that Singapore has restrictions of foreign ownership…and that Hong Kong policy is to build housing for many of it citizens. He also noted the old Transit works yard at 41st near Oak…..approx. 14 acres …aka once Public Property.. In 2015 City of Vancouver unanimously approved development of 1000-1200 units..20 % of which will be “affordable housing” (whatever the f*ck that means anymore) If there was ever a golden opportunity for the left wing nuts on COV Council to drive a harder bargain..this was it. This was public land…sold for millions…which ended up where? Divvied up into various Gov’t bureaucratic ratholes? They left wings impotence… Read more »

Oracle
Oracle
2 years ago

Padding their pockets.

Doomcouver
Doomcouver
2 years ago
Reply to  Oracle

Yeah it’s like the NDP want their turn at the government trough. They don’t want to kill the Chinese goose laying the golden eggs right now.

history
history
2 years ago

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Columbus_Day_Storm_of_1962

here’s a pretty good story for Vancover history buffs
Tomorrow is the 55th anniversary of the 1962 Columbus Day Storm. I wouldnt know about this day under normal circumstances. I came across it while researching the Mother of my only child, (who happens to live in Vancouver). Oct 12 is the Mothers birthday.

now take your mind to this disaster, especially if you are from Pakistan, Bangledesh or India

“one of the first times that a natural event helped to trigger a civil war.”
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/1970_Bhola_cyclone#Death_toll

Mick Murphy
Mick Murphy
2 years ago

Fake Richmond “winery” sours business relationship leading to violence

2018. The year vancouverites finally realize they’re in the sinosphere.

https://thinkpol.ca/2017/10/11/fake-richmond-winery-sours-business-relationship-leading-to-violence/

Lost...but not leased
Lost...but not leased
2 years ago
Reply to  Mick Murphy

My wish to” Sanity Clause” this year is that the Queens Cowboys..aka RCMP…SERIOUSLY investigate Richmond Politicians and bureaucrats …there is no way in hell they aren’t aware aka forewarned of the crime and corruption that permeates many facets of the Local economy…while us humble plebs are only aware because the putrid caked lid has been finally blown off.

Start with Richmonds Mayor(ex lawyer), a round eye Asian ass kisser supreme…as well as “certain” Councillors ( D.D. and K.J. ) who shamelessly are partners in many local Condo projects

This corrupt boil needs to be lanced…….YESTERDAY

Combat roach
Combat roach
2 years ago
Reply to  Mick Murphy

Our local sewer got clogged with too much excrement, slowly flooding while faeces coming to the surface. Soon we’ll all need life jackets.

Just me
Just me
2 years ago

Carol James’ interview in New York City is, again, disappointing,

“James acknowledged that the biggest pressure the administration faces from voters is to act immediately on housing. But with prices so far out of reach for most buyers, that won’t be easy.

“No one expects you can get to affordability within a year,” she said. “We want to develop a comprehensive plan that is long term and doesn’t create unintended consequences.”

READ: we will not rock the boat. Nobody wants lower prices in that’s government. This is becoming increasingly obvious.

They just lost a few voters in my household.

Doomcouver
Doomcouver
2 years ago
Reply to  Just me

Someone ought to tell the NDP that you can’t make an omelet without breaking some eggs, and you can’t fix housing affordability without destroying some home equity in the process.

Oracle
Oracle
2 years ago

Please kick these people out.

VOTE NO!! and SPREAD THE WORD!!

Oracle
Oracle
2 years ago

ITS OFFICIAL NOW FROM THE NDP!

Basically what they are considering doing over the next year is dealing with AirBnB and Closing the bare trust loopholes. Carole James basically said its a long term solution (Meaning they will keep prices high). NO 2% TAX!!! NO CLOSING LOOPHOLES FOR WORK PERMIT FOR FBT!!! Heres the link:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-10-11/government-eyeing-all-options-to-cool-vancouver-housing-market

I seriously hope the word gets out to defeat the referendum. Otherwise you will have given these liars exactly what they wanted.

Oracle
Oracle
2 years ago
Reply to  Oracle

AND NOTHING WITH PRESALES!!

I’d like to see the NDP MLA’s foundations/overseas bank accounts now.

Oracle
Oracle
2 years ago
Reply to  Oracle

PLUS OSFI measures DEAD!!

Burnabonian
Burnabonian
2 years ago
Reply to  Oracle

No they are not.

That turd is still in our punch bowl and it’s too late to fish it out.

Lost...but not leased
Lost...but not leased
2 years ago
Reply to  Burnabonian

Au Contraire..

be a TURD in THEIR punchbowl….the revolution started YESTERDAY

…hasta la vista baby

Burnabonian
Burnabonian
2 years ago
Reply to  Oracle

They don’t have to do anything.

Diadora
Diadora
2 years ago

Globe: The NDP, which came to power after the May election, had said while in opposition that the Liberals were not doing enough to curb speculation in B.C. real estate.
In its election campaign platform, the NDP promised to set up a multi-agency task force to fight tax fraud and money laundering in the B.C. real estate marketplace.
http://vancouversun.com/news/national/highest-proportion-of-high-rollers-at-river-rock-casino-are-real-estate-professionals-internal-audit
Just a friendly reminder to the NDP to do something about housing or they will be booted out very soon.

Oracle
Oracle
2 years ago
Reply to  Diadora

There is no organization for the renting class. One way they can show unity is threaten to vote no.

history
history
2 years ago
Reply to  Oracle

the Hollow Earth Society stands beside them, in theory.

UBC in Crisis Mode
UBC in Crisis Mode
2 years ago

That couldn’t be right?
Simple math:
If 100,000 rich households in BC won’t pay their tax of 30,000 each (based on their world wide income of $150,000), that would be 3 billion a year, and BC’s GDP is only 237 billion, 1.3% of GDP.
But CRA is focused on employee discount of small change, something makes no sense here.

Just me
Just me
2 years ago

I would argue that is a conservative estimate. 150k average hidden income? It is more.

Just me
Just me
2 years ago

Actually, is starts to make perfect sense if you assume that the government wants to give a free ride to these tax evaders. When you look at it this way, it all starts to fit together. The government mistakenly believes that we are all better off having these millionaire migrants gracing us with their presence and the extra cash they bring with them. This is not true, in terms of our overall quality of life. Evidently. We would be better off with less people, a bit higher unemployment, lower economic growth and significantly lower house prices. The majority would benefit if we stopped millionaire migrants in their tracks. The problem is: politicians seem to have a trembling hand. Once in power, they immediately start worrying about stopping the money flows. Of course, they will inevitably pay for this lack of… Read more »

bullwhip29
bullwhip29
2 years ago

OSFI’s proposed mortgage stress test is unnecessary, harmful: study
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/osfis-proposed-mortgage-stress-test-is-unnecessary-harmful-study/article36537405/

consider this measure dead too…

Doomcouver
Doomcouver
2 years ago
Reply to  bullwhip29

The Fraser Institute has no clout with OSFI, I’m sure they’ll be ignored like they usually are.

southseacompany
southseacompany
2 years ago
Reply to  bullwhip29

There was a lot of whining when Flaherty tightened CMHC standards, but it happened anyway.

Expect a lot of whining as the ‘punch bowl’ gets taken away.

‘Expect anger as Poloz pulls the punch bowl’
http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/canada-interest-rates-1.4276955

Oracle
Oracle
2 years ago

WOW.. you finally commented. Why now?

Diadora
Diadora
2 years ago
Reply to  bullwhip29

Remember it is not the sub-prime that sink the US in 2017, it’s the rich investors that panic and sold at once when interest rate go up and RE prices come down. OSFI have to slow the market or all banks are in trouble.

Oracle
Oracle
2 years ago
Reply to  bullwhip29

Told you guys so.

These kind of media measures are always watered down. To satisfy people like BPOM..

bullwhip29
bullwhip29
2 years ago

…and on the subject of the proposed (and soon to be killed) tax on employee discounts, my sister in law the mortgage underwriter along with her colleagues tossed out a question that so far no msm expert has yet touched on and that is how such a policy might affect the many 100’s of thousands of employees that either work directly for the banks or its subsidiaries, their spouses, partners and other “family” members (bringing the total likely to 7-figures) who presently receive a “discounted” rate on their mortgages, HELOC’s and other loan products?

consider the measure dead…

southseacompany
southseacompany
2 years ago

‘What Tulips and the Great Recession Have in Common”, Bloomberg video

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qr76385gErA

“Most people would agree that the bond market is expensive. But is it in a bubble? Alan Greenspan thinks so. So will this bubble be popping anytime soon? Bloomberg’s Jonathan Ferro explains.”

southseacompany
southseacompany
2 years ago

“Economic guru Robert Shiller on Canadian housing, distracted investors and a new ETF bearing his name”, Financial Post

http://business.financialpost.com/investing/robert-shiller-on-canadian-housing-bubble-market-distractions-like-trump-and-new-bmo-etf

“Existing real estate in established cities like Toronto and Vancouver looks bubbly to me, and I would be concerned. I wouldn’t advise someone to buy two or three houses in Toronto.”

“I don’t know what exactly is driving it, and I know it’s not just Canada — it’s also New Zealand, Australia, Hong Kong and Shanghai.
History doesn’t show this as a good investing strategy, as even great cities don’t appreciate very much over time. It’s very slow compared to other investments and in the long run, it hasn’t worked out. If you look at major U.S. cities over 100 years, they do not appreciated that much.”

bullwhip29
bullwhip29
2 years ago

“I don’t know what exactly is driving it…”

>>> loses all credibility by making statements like this. either he is a naive fool or afraid to rock the boat

Shut It Down Already
Shut It Down Already
2 years ago
Reply to  bullwhip29

Yes, you have way more credibility than a Nobel prize winner.

Just me
Just me
2 years ago

Schiller has been saying this for the past ten years. Just Google him.
I think even he is finally realizing that money from mainland China is driving prices in the Pacific basin. Until we stop that, there is risk in buying RE.

MarKoz
2 years ago
Reply to  Just me

Longer. I had a link to a 2005 article at G&M that quoted him as saying Vancouver was the “bubbliest city in the world”. Sadly, the link no longer works.

MarKoz
2 years ago
Reply to  MarKoz
Ulsterman
2 years ago
Reply to  MarKoz

Yup, any Joe Nobody who bought a SFH in Vancouver around 2005 (counter to Schiller’s advice) could probably buy and sell him several times over by now. I would give much credence to anything Schiller has to say in terms of timing markets.

Just me
Just me
2 years ago

From the article.

The memo noted that as most of the high-risk gamblers are from China, much background information could not be verified, because gamblers presented English-language approximations of Chinese character names.

“The legitimacy of the 52 companies listed by the top 62 patrons were reviewed and testing was found to be inconclusive,” the memo said. “We were unable to conclusively determine whether the companies exist. Obtaining the characters of the companies given by high rollers would help … determine whether the positions given could support the level of play.”

Simple Solution
Simple Solution
2 years ago
Reply to  Just me

asking too many questions would be RACIST….

bullwhip29
bullwhip29
2 years ago
Reply to  Just me

only a question of when, not if, Vancouver becomes the HK of the west, Toronto another Beijing and best of all, Richmond the new Macau which will not only feature condos for supercars, but also exclusive marinas for yachts, helicopter landing pads all over the city and additional private runways for more high rollers

Just me
Just me
2 years ago

Why am I not surprised?

Highest proportion of high-rollers at River Rock Casino are real estate professionals: internal audit.

http://vancouversun.com/news/national/highest-proportion-of-high-rollers-at-river-rock-casino-are-real-estate-professionals-internal-audit

Corrupted to the core. The whole system.

Just me
Just me
2 years ago
Reply to  Just me

And of course, housewives and students.

Auditors were surprised by the number of high-roller “housewives” and how much they spent on chips. Seventy-five “housewives” spent $14.3 million in cash at River Rock VIP betting rooms, making this the sixth-top occupation in the review. Three of these women deposited over $1 million in cash in 2015. Nine of the women deposited over $500,000 in cash. And 42 different “housewives” were involved in 126 “unusual financial transactions.”

“There are occupations, such as housewife, student, and server that are not typically able to support the level of cash buy-ins made by those patrons,” the Aug. 2016 memo stated. Flagged transactions “arising from associations with other known patrons, were more prevalent with housewives than any other occupation reviewed.”

Just me
Just me
2 years ago
Reply to  Just me

We are drowning under a Tsunami of illegal money from China. It is wiping out any semblance of legality in this city.

And our politicians are doing nothing. They even refuse to contemplate measures to stop this. Shame on the lot of them. Shame.

Dave
2 years ago
Reply to  Just me

They are doing worse than nothing. The Feds are increasing taxes on honest people and businesses and ignoring all the illegal money coming in to our country.

Oracle
Oracle
2 years ago
Reply to  Dave

Shut down YVR. Protest!

Ulsterman
2 years ago
Reply to  Oracle

If this were France you may have a chance, but this is Canada, home to “nice’ people.

bullwhip29
bullwhip29
2 years ago
Reply to  Just me

if one needed even more proof that the New Coasts, NuStreams, MetroEdges of the world are essentially in business to launder money and provide other related services, then look no further…

Time to go
Time to go
2 years ago
Reply to  Just me

Neng pian jiu pian
If you can get away with cheating, then cheat (Chinese idiom)

ChinaOne
ChinaOne
2 years ago

I vant to thank you to Trudeau for helping million my cousin get here. He buy 3 house and other he buy 5 condo. We like Richmond. We go one flight home and we make money. We no tax here. Thank you Trudeau and we like environment and school here free. We like road to and Bentley but too many poor people drive. Raise fee to drive. My cousin afraid NDP but now cousin say they good. Maybe he buy 7 condo now.

ChinaOne
ChinaOne
2 years ago
Reply to  ChinaOne

We go Lasalle college. Local poor people can’t come there security will stop them. Only my cousin go there. We study hard and sometimes not hard. We pass and buy Lamborghini. We like Vancouver.

ChinaOne
ChinaOne
2 years ago
Reply to  ChinaOne

My young cousin buy Range Rover grade 12. He mom ten year visa but get work permit easy. Not cousin pay no school fee. We love Vancouver and Range Rover and Trudeau and NDP

Just me
Just me
2 years ago

And by politicians, I mean the lot of them. The NDP so far sucks.