BC, hype, politics, presales, supply

Vancouver condo presales, locals to get first crack

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118 Comments

The Mayor is said to be drafting a motion that will give local buyers first chance to buy crack condos:

Mayor Gregor Robertson will introduce a motion to give local residents first crack at pre-sale condo sales Tuesday during a Vancouver city council meeting.

The motion asks city staff to draft a policy framework as part of the city’s “Housing Reset” plan.

Critics of the real estate industry have raised concerns about how the increasingly speculative pre-sale market is pushing up prices in both the pre-sale and resale market, and is preventing local residents from buying.

Presumably this will help to end the homeless problem in Vancouver by giving locals easier access to condo presales.

Read the full article here.

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Whistler or Bust?

Does anyone have any news from the trenches?

In my neighbourhood in Kerrsidale I see the occasional sold sign. There are a fewmore listings than usual but nothing that makes me think the high end market is dead.

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bullwhip29

smart money has eyes focused on FBT class action suit and to a lesser degree the NDP budget. until such time it will be all quiet on the western front

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trackback

[…] Kabloona points out this article asking yet again how this country would fare in a US style housing market crash, but particularly how the CMHC would fare: […]

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Dave

Big real estate related news out of New Zealand. They have elected a new government that was put into power over anger on immigration and sale of the country to Chinese money. Sound familiar?

I’m sure a few politicians are paying attention this morning in Victoria.

It’s amazing how many countries are being swept up into populist politics. People are tired of the political elite forcing policies on them and that includes things like immigration levels.

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Oracle

Thats why Trudeau ended hopes of Porportional Rep. ; The federal Libs and Cons and NDP ALL want the show to continue. New party can’t rise from the ashes.

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Dave

Trudeau killed it because the Liberals have re-established themselves as the natural governing party. Why would you want to give up that power? Likewise, it’s not in the Conservatives interest because they can win majority governments now and then, but it’s harder for them than the Liberals. Federally, the NDP should want PR because they can never win a majority and minority governments are infrequent, although I think it will be more common in the future Federally.

Provincially, I see PR as bad for the Liberals and NDP, but good for the Greens and other fringe extremist groups.

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bullwhip29

that’s all fine and dandy but it is coming after the fact. metro vancouver has largely been sold out to the highest bidder. whether it is horgan or a new mayor or someone else, they wont have much success turning off the spigots let alone sending everyone home

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Dave

Our politicians have created a hell of a mess. The peasants are revolting all over the Western world and immigration is a common theme and outsider parties on both the left and right are winning. Populism doesn’t translate well into the traditional left-right dichotomy.

If the NDP and Liberals fear this kind of populism, which they should, they should also fear PR because it could be a mechanism for bringing an anti-immigration party forward. I bet such a party could quickly achieve 10% of the vote in BC (purely as a protest vote) and would have a high chance of holding the balance of power.

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Shut It Down Already

She’s a populist now?

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Dave

Looks like it to me. Immigration rates, the inflow of Chinese money and housing were reportedly big issues that they won off. I see those as populist issues.

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Shut It Down Already

I’ve not seen any articles which describe her that way. I’d be interested to see one if you know of an example.

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Dyugle

Pre sales and stress tests. Possibly big unexpected problem at completion.

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YVR

And the foreign buyers tax which is applicable at completion of the presale building. Not so easy to use the student or house wife proxy unless you have 100% cash.

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Oracle

35% cash

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bullwhip29

you are forgetting that many/most will wind up getting that cash refunded to them once their paperwork is completed (which is now easier to do) OR property to reassigned to someone who is or will be exempt from the FBT

this might not matter at all in the not too distant future as the legality of the whole FBT itself remains in question. should the province lose their case (which is what i am expecting) each person that paid the FBT “head tax” will also receive compensation in addition to the refund and the whole merry go round comes full circle with prices of single detached estates resuming trip to the moon, which in turn takes everything else along with it.

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bullwhip29

FBT class action certification hearing should be in a couple of weeks. given how the NDP have handled things so far I am not convinced they will have both the wherewithal and desire to fight this to the ends of the earth if at all since they were not the ones who implemented it in the first place and have nothing whatsoever to gain by dragging out a potentially expensive legal case out for many months or years. my bet is the FBT gets scrapped and other measures will be tabled and hashed out (but never implemented) until they lose the next election.

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Best place on meth

Turdeau’s useless finance minister will be history tomorrow, hopefully the new one will have a vagina in the interest of gender parity.

He’ll be fine of course, with all that money he’s secretly stashed all over the place.

The drama teacher, not so much.

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YVR

“hopefully the new one will have a vagina in the interest of gender parity.”

Are you telling me Morneau does not have a vagina. Someone with balls speaks like that?

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paulb

New
195
Price Change
58
Sold
135
TI:9,863

http://www.clivestevepaul.com

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Oracle

My God Paul! Why don’t you tell the 135 buyers to walk away from the deal. Prices gonna crash after these huge mortgage changes. /s

Took the sheeps eyes away from the foreign money and directed it at locals who aren’t buying the million dollar homes. Sigh…

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Madashell

Charges laid in probe of alleged B.C. money laundering
http://www.theprovince.com/news/national/charges+laid+probe+alleged+money+laundering/15236812/story.html?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter
Don’t forget about the high rollers involve, the casino that let it happen and the politicians that turned a blind eye.

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Dude Chilling

These guys will just take off back to China never to be seen again. But at least we’ll be rid of them.

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Best place on meth

Did you see the bit about chinese police rounding up people in this organized crime ring at their end?

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bullwhip29

only the people that didnt want to play ball with Xi got rounded up. may as well be talking about Putin and his goon squad…same thing but even more money involved.

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bullwhip29

they could easily change name, docs etc and get a little “work” done on them in a nearby basement suite then resume operations in a different location. but the cash, yeah that is gone never to be seen again.

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Best place on meth

And the NDP bashers said nothing would come of this.

If Krusty were still in charge, it would have been swept under the carpet.

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Whistler or Bust?

Brought to you by Local #653

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YVR

LOL. That investigation was started long before the NDP were in power they had nothing to do with the charges. It was announced by The Public Prosecution Service of Canada. On the other hand right now under the NDP a house wife can show up to the casino with a duffel bag with a 100K in cash in $20 bills and walk out with clean money. That could be stopped in 24 hours if the NDP wanted it stopped. Instead they study it. It is the federal government taking action and the probe was started under the BC Liberals. Good thing the feds and CRA were involved otherwise the NDP would have shut it down for more study.

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Just me

Now, don’t be ridiculous. BPOM is correct in pointing out that the BC Libs let this money laundering ring continue unimpeded for years. Of course it was the change in government that triggered the proceedings.
I think the NDP are coming short on housing. But at least they are trying to establish a semblance of rle of law again, after the “far west” years in which anything went.

That does not mean I am still disappointed at the lack of action on housing taxation and the like. That is why I voted for them.

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YVR

Have your mom read the article to you. Nothing to do with the NDP and the investigation was started in 2016. This is a federal prosecution.

The Public Prosecution Service of Canada (PPSC) is a federal government organization…The PPSC fulfills the responsibilities of the Attorney General of Canada in the discharge of his criminal law mandate by prosecuting criminal offences under federal jurisdiction

http://www.ppsc-sppc.gc.ca/eng/bas/index.html

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Just me

This same setup applied also in years past. Nothing happened. The BC Libs did not order external reviews of the case. Eby did.

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Shut It Down Already

Link?

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bullwhip29

obviously she was doing everything in her power to keep this under wraps. had she won the election certain people connected to the investigation would have received offers they couldn’t refuse (a la elizabeth denham, carolyn rogers…) and case would never have seen the light of day. imho a lot will be made of the silver intl story at least by the msm but little will be done by authorities as the perpetrators involved have had plenty of time to cover their tracks and formulate an exit plan. one day krusty will resurface and maybe just maybe we will catch her holding the bag

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Confucius

Oracle post meter indicates that the market is in bad shape.

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Oracle

Let’s begin a countdown. 3 months until market comes to a standstill and we can buy houses 50 cents on the dollar.

Now you really think OSFI and banks think this will happen. All this is going to do is push up rents.

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kabloona

“How resilient is Canadian housing to a U.S.-style crash? Plunging oil prices? Here’s the CMHC stress test result

Garry Marr, Financial Post 10.18.2017”

😉

Actually, article is more like – how resilient is the CMHC to a US style crash…..?

http://www.vancouversun.com/Scripts/resilient+canadian+housing+style+crash+plunging+prices+here+cmhc+stress/15225739/story.html

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bullwhip29

CMHC is too big to fail. when the SHTF they will get whatever amount they need, guidelines will be loosened and Ma and Pa taxpayer will get stuck with the multi billion $ tab (again…)

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Bear Vancouverite

Oracle is out to spew his disinformation again. Let’s recount and refute all of them: 1) Oracle stated that the OSFI B20 rules would be “watered down”. In fact they were made stronger: as a response to industry criticism that B20 would push borrowers to get shorter loans which will have lower qualifying rules, they amended the policy to state that borrowers must be tested at the greater of the BOC 5 year rate or the contract rate+2%. The current BOC 5 year benchmark rate is 4.89%, so no amount of rate discounting by banks will save anyone from a minimum 4.89% stress test. This is a huge point. 2) Oracle is saying that foreigners are exempt from OSFI rules. This is incorrect. To quote straight from OSFI’s policy: “At a minimum, the qualifying rate for all uninsured mortgages should… Read more »

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Oracle

Then I guess be prepared to buy houses 50 cents on the dollar.

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Bag it and tag it

There is no way this can be true since it contradicts Oracle’s sources?! Death, taxes and Oracle’s sources…

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Burnabonian

Can anyone confirm under which circumstances renewals will be stress tested?

For example, suppose I have carried a mortgage for 5 years with the Royal Scotia Bank of Commerce and it’s time for me to renew for another 5 years.

Do I get stress-tested under the new rules?

And what happens if I fail the stress test on my renewal?

Are my choices then to find an alternative lender or have a firesale? Or am I “grandfathered”?

This must be wishful thinking on my part because if every mortgage in Vancouver gets stress tested over the next 5 years, it will lead to a meltdown more powerful than a thousand suns.

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Dave

Ya, meltdown time. I heard a banker say a lot of our customers won’t qualify… we know what their incomes are. Trust me on this.

Going to a good old time if you enjoy watching a show. It’s going to hurt my bottom line, so I’ll make sure to enjoy the price of admission. I’m a glass half full kind of guy and a lot of people are about to have half glasses.

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bullwhip29

the renewal itself is basically a rubber stamp but the rate you get will depend on where the market may be at that time. if you switch banks all bets are off. honestly i think your insurance co is more likely to subject its clients to regular (and more and more stringent) stress tests. i have had many people tell me that getting insurance for properties in various locations around the province is getting more difficult and expensive particularly for vacation properties that are not always occupied. many insurance co’s wont even touch them now. without insurance none of the above issues would even come into play as the banks would automatically reject the application. and to those who think they are clever and fudge and/or go cheap on their insurance (ie. as it pertains to general conditions, coverage, usage… Read more »

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Egg Hunt

Yes, insurance co is more strict these days. One case, owner has to visit the suite every two weeks and make sure no major changes since contracted.
I confirmed this is to visit inside the tenanted suite, not to confirm the building is there from outside.
this is pretty much impossible to do, and good excuse for insurance co to deny claim.
Btw, if strata unit, individual home insurance is not mandatory to obtain mortgage.

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bullwhip29

every two weeks seems like a stretch. i am thinking that landlord is just using this as an excuse to keep tabs on their tenants. this said, the insurance co’s will deny claim for owners of properties that were vacant at time of incident when in fact they were not supposed to be or owner claimed otherwise. other issues arise when owner stipulated property was to be owner occupied for a whole host of reasons, then proceeded to insure as such only to wind up using house as a long or short term rental.

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YVR

“which circumstances renewals will be stress tested?”

If you switch lenders or want to increase the mortgage. A simple renewal will not be stress tested.

But the bank knows your income (or can ask for it) which lets them know if you have the ability to switch lenders so that will be a factor in the rate you are offered. For example does a HAM housewife get a good rate going forward? I doubt it. They get the posted rate at best.

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bullwhip29

the mortgage advisers working at the banks (still) have a vested interest in presenting their client’s applications in the best possible light. if needed those HAM housewives, students, farmers, consultants, contractors, tour guides, hotel operators, plastic surgeons and pharmaceutical technicians and can now have one of those fake job boiler room operations “act” as their employer now in addition to providing the standard tax planning, legal and foreign exchange services. always a step ahead of authorities and regulators…

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Bear Vancouverite

There’s no need to speculate on this point. An article in the news (I forget which) specified that only when changing institutions will you get stress tested.

I think this will be very interesting because it means that institutions don’t have to compete anymore to retain the marginal buyer’s mortgage: those buyers will have to accept whatever rates they’re given at time of renewal (within reason of course).

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Best place on meth

This should be good for bank stocks.

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Oracle

Oh, here’s another one for you Einstein.

Uninsured mortgages can be stress tested with 35 year amortizations. 35 yr amortizations are about to make a comeback. There is your loophole.

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bullwhip29

you are wrong. the little guys will be squashed, people with means (ie. bags of unaccounted for cash but no financial history) and a few connections can easily solve this by forging immigration, employment and tax docs. the fees charged can be offset by what is saved from the FBT and then some…

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YVR

“I am very confident that even foreign buyers will be affected by this.”

Looks like it. Foreign buyers have lots of options to purchase property other than Canada. They will take the path of least resistance. In the past that was Canada. Not anymore.

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Hyper-mega-Bull

your user name is “BEAR Vancouverite” and you’re worried about someone else’s predictions?

lol.

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stagnate

where was this stress test ten or even twenty years ago? and Gregor stop playing politics, you could have done something about housing years ago but didn’t bother

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Dave

Vision Vancouver has done well for themselves with the current situation. They aren’t going to bite the hand that’s fed them, so all he can and will do is play politics.

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YVR

Of course Vision have done well with cab drivers and developers. The NDP want their cut now. Anyone notice their policies and broken promisses are indentical? If you want to know what the NDP WILL do just look at what Vision HAS done.

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Dave

Vision and NDP are one and the same. The NDP signed up for the same benefit plan.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sr9_GfeoCjk

Ask and you shall receive.

I’m not sure what Marc Cohodes is playing for because I haven’t paid attention to him, but if he’s trying to take the market down, this is one of the pillars IMO. Show the public why they shouldn’t trust the politicians and bureaucrats and the house of cards will fall. Information asymmetry is worth hundreds of millions, if not billions.

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YVR

“Vision and NDP are one and the same.”

I know that but you see the same people around here who criticize Vision for their policies and track record and then vote and support the NDP with identical polices. The definition of insanity. Geoff Meggs as chief of staff should have made that crystal clear. So far the NDP have matched Vision 100% on policy and broken promises.

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Oracle

People here are happy now with the stress tests so they don’t care if NDP does nothing /S. Houses are going to be going for 50 cents on the dollar in a few months.

We will see what happens in the next few months. But be prepared to be surprised when prices don’t budge. Misinformation = Surprises.

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patriotz

“Anyone notice their policies and broken promisses are indentical?”

How on earth can a provincial government and a city council have “indentical” policies when their jurisdictions are so different? Even in some cases where they might be able to take a similar position, such as proportional representation, they don’t.

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YVR

How about Uber and housing?

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patriotz

“where was this stress test ten or even twenty years ago? ”

Interest rates were falling back then. There was the odd blip up a percent or two, but that doesn’t make much difference in the payments when the base rate was double digits. As well, back then buyers remembered the super high rates of the early 1980’s and were more cautious and had larger down payments, as opposed to those today who think super low rates will last forever.

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Lost...but not leased

Maybe trumpeted “stress test” ain’t gonna happen
…they are simply bluffing to test the waters…as I submit that while this market is greatly inflated…a crash has more dire consequences and no one wants to get tarred and feathered ..as the mob can get real ugly.

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Rates

Foreign students and housewives exempt from stress tests. Just need 35% down. Looks like new rules aimed at locals only.

https://www.reddit.com/r/vancouver/comments/7741ip/cibc_giving_out_mortgages_to_international/

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Shut It Down Already

Everybody is exempt from the stress test right now. It hasn’t come into force yet.

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Combat roach

Essentially locust (eg. student, housewife, casino-man) can’t be technically stress tested. They don’t have major stress receptors developed well enough except those endemic receptors responsible for detecting scamming and leaching opportunities.

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YVR

Nope. Stress tests apply to everyone. The photo in the redit post is over a year old. HAM must prove income regardless of downpayment.

https://mobile.twitter.com/ajme55enger/status/920389277128695808

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Best place on meth

Oracle, you promised to leave – not create more sock puppets.

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Lost...but not leased

“history” is right
..condos are for global speculation….

IMHO, we’ve(ie BC) been selling out to offshore investors since Expo 86…
The banksters ,, CMHC , etc. ripped a page from the US housing market playbook and liberalized credit to allow Locals to compete.

LOCAL Condo buyers were seriously sucked into supporting the condo market under all sorts of false pretences, in that it was more “green” to live in a strata, (when in fact if one crunches the numbers these units contribute a huge amount of ” GHG”….more on that later.)

Basic point is sucked in Locals effectively cheered on rampant development, thus masking the offshore buyers who control and manipulate the market…which is” global speculation”.

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Oracle

NDP says

Thanks to the posters here for letting us off the hook. You say prices are going to decline with these mortgage changes so we will do nothing then. No closing FBT loopholes or 2% tax.

Are people on this blog really that stupid? What happens if prices don’t decline? You’ve got to keep the pressure on the NDP. Unbelievable.

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Dave

The funny thing is doing nothing will actually be better than what the Liberals would have done. In the past, the Liberals would respond to any tightening on rules from the CMHC to prop up the market. I think they would have done the same this time around had they been in power. But, the NDP won’t actively do anything, so the mortgage changes will actually have an effect this time. I’m not suggesting people shouldn’t keep the pressure on. They should. The flow of foreign capital is the problem. It’s not going to be easy to unwind all that because we’ve built an economy around it. The tentacles are deep. While a potential for lower prices might be a good thing, it’s still not enough because it won’t stop the main problem of foreign capital inflows. Making real estate… Read more »

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YVR

Wait and see what the NDP do. I think the foreign buyers tax will be cut within 6 months. We will also see the first time buyers program expanded.

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Dave

LOL. Of course the first time buyer plan will be expanded. The only thing the NDP will dare to do is help push real estate demand. They will not undermine the market no matter what. They are still of the belief that all they need are a few talking points and this is low hanging fruit.

They won’t do all the things Eby knows very well should be done unless people show up with pitchforks.

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Dave

I suggest people act like Eby is the Housing Minister. If you send email or mail to comment on policy, address it to David Eby, Housing Minister. It would show the NDP that they can’t hide on this file.

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KickThemOut

30 days for residents of Vancouver, another 60 days for Metro region residents. So fucking easy to get around and basically toothless. That’s assuming the lazy pigs at city hall working their 2 hours a day of semi-productive work can actually create a proposal before the next civic election.

All it means is that developers will change their VIP sale contracts to be conditional on availability to get the bridge financing for the official sales, wait 3 months and then voila, all units sold at 3 months + 1 day. Will probably rope in a few local buyers who think they are getting a deal too.

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history

i agree it’s stupid.
condos are for global speculation, vehicles are for living local

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Bear Vancouverite

I know several people in the industry and if you told them to wait “3 months” to get any sales from time of the project launch you’ll be hearing screams.

Firstly, not a single one of the sales people in these projects get paid a salary, they get paid on commissions that come upon completion of the project, yet they have to work long hours preparing for a launch. I imagine developers are pretty frustrated by these changes, while a no-nothing Oracle laughs them off.

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KickThemOut

All the landlords are rubbing their hands in glee….happy eviction notices bears! You might be forced out of your moldy basements into a rooming house. But at least sunlight! Do wonders for your attitude.

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history

i can show anyone here how to oive in a vehicle for $300 per month. Dine out several times per month. It’s easy, free wifi

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Shut It Down Already

Bathrooms are overrated!

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KickThemOut

Mainland China polluting our waters and food supply? Too much “medical” use to juice production rates and poisoning our water?

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/pacific-oysters-recalled-due-to-toxin-causing-paralytic-shellfish-poisoning-1.4358203

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Oracle

People on garth’s blog are so stupid that it make me wanna puke. They think the new mortgage changes are a game changer. LMAO. Every few months there is a game changer change to them. ahahaha

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MarKoz

The impact of the new OSFI rules coming January 1. If only the provincial government would apply similar rules to credit unions…
https://beta.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/personal-finance/household-finances/ten-ways-the-new-mortgage-rules-will-shake-up-the-lending-market/article36628214/

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Oracle

Will not happen. Boards of credit unions tight nit with NDP.

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Dave

“The impact of the new stress test requirement will be to lower the purchasing power of households by up to 20 per cent. Like past tightening of mortgage regulations, we anticipate that the market impact will be sharp but temporary. In the past, we’ve seen home sales decline in the three to nine months following the implementation of tighter mortgage lending standards, with the severity of the impact fading within one year. However, these new regulations impact a larger pool of mortgages and so the impact could be more significant than in the past,” said Cameron Muir, BCREA chief economist

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Dave

I am noticing that the tone of real estate insiders is starting to shift. Most now accept that price declines are coming. This is a significant shift from where we were six months ago and even two months ago. In August I said the tone had changed to the expectation that price appreciation will now be small to negligible, but won’t go down. Now, the tone is, we expect it to go down, but only by a small amount. It will be a few more months for the next shift which will be, this will be a minor temporary correction. I think the wild card is the flow of Chinese money. If Trump puts trade sanctions on China, it’s possible they will pull back capital outflows to prop up domestic investment and spending. That could speed up a correction here… Read more »

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Oracle

The new stress test WILL NOT APPLY TO FOREIGN STUDENTS?WORK PERMIT HOLDERS as they have no credit history here yet thus don’t require income verification. These new rule changes are to get more money out of locals.

Wow. CIBC came out and said it.

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Shut It Down Already

What does credit history have to do with income verification? I’ll tell you – nothing.

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Road Warrior

This motion will be ineffective.

Elebody know. somebory who buy thlee.

Unless you dig down into the economics of each purchaser there’s no way to track it, and to follow funds. Too much effort.

There is a ton of tax collectible files out there right now and nothing is being done, so I’d imagine this will be a dead end also.

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Diadora

“Zhang…w/ 5 Cdns, 2 people from Florida & New Jersey man, were indicted in North Dakota for conspiracy to import..drugs fr Canada & China”
http://www.scmp.com/news/world/united-states-canada/article/2115812/two-chinese-nationals-made-tonnes-fentanyl-sold-it?utm_source=t.co&utm_medium=referral
Connect the dots… Drug. Casino. Money Laundering. High price Real Estate.

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Hyper-mega-Bull

the fentanyl crisis is HUGE and underreported health emergency and it’s directly linked to China. the powers that be don’t want to talk about this.

us based global corporations, hollywood, national and local politicians especially in canada, real estate especially in vancouver are all blinded by dollar signs.

eventually the problem will grow so big it can’t be ignored. of course by then it will be too late, just as it’s too late for vancouver.

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Oracle

A question for the smart people on this blog:

Let’s say I have a mortgage of $400,000 on a house appraised at $1 million.

And my income now is $79,000 (would not qualify in coming stress test for $400k mortgage).

And say I want to take out $250,000 from the equity in my home. New mortgage will be $650K. Will I qualify if I am buying a condo who’s rent offset will increase my income 1:1.

Many people who own in Vancouver are currently buying condos this way.

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