End of the year free-for-all!

Well that’s about it for 2017.

Let’s do one last open topic discussion thread for the year. 

What are you seeing out there?  Post your news links, thoughts and anecdotes in the comments below and have an excellent weekend and a happy New Year! 

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Lost....but not leased
Guest
Lost....but not leased

Happy New Year to ALL VCI posters
Thanks for the insight,… links….. debates…and other numerous contributions.

*****2018 is shaping up to be an intriguing year

history
Guest
history

2017 was the intrigue, 2018 is the knife fight.

Switchblade has two buddies, fear and terrorism.

Party on
Guest
Party on

The following numbers are from the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) as of the end of the 2nd quarter, 2017:

Total credit to the non-financial sector (core debt), % of GDP

Canada – 296.0
Greece – 294.1

https://www.bis.org/statistics/tables_f.pdf

Just me
Guest
Just me

Honk Kong is off their charts. Debt/GDP almost at 400% in 16Q2.
How much of that credit is spent in Vancouver?

Best place on meth
Member
Best place on meth

Accelerating at a blistering pace as well.

Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

Because Hong Kong’s GDP is relatively small owing to its small population. In absolute dollar terms (the table below) you’ll see that Canada is 4x higher, and Hong Kong comes in below Belgium, Switzerland, and Sweden.

Just me
Guest
Just me

(1) I am comparing the ratios.
(2) Even in absolute values like HK’s, it would have an effect.
(3) What is your point? One has to wonder what you are trying to imply.

I don’t think anyone would be surprised to find that mainland Chinese borrow out of HK when moving funds to the West.

Best place on meth
Member
Best place on meth

“What is your point? One has to wonder what you are trying to imply”

He hates Canadians.

Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

I know you’re comparing ratios. The ratio isn’t the relevant number if it’s foreign influence on our real estate that you’re interested in.

Doomcouver
Guest
Doomcouver

The HK credit bubble is a microchasm of the greater China credit bubble. By many measures it’s the largest credit bubble the world has ever seen, and I personally believe it will pop in our lifetimes. I also think that a good portion of the foreign buyers in Vancouver are buying with borrowed money from Chinese banks and shadow lenders. This was not an isolated case: http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2016/06/28/chinese-bank-seize-vancouver-homes_n_10722392.html

history
Guest
history

Youve explained in a nutshell, the New Age on the West Coast

Predominant Aquarius country on the planet, using Secret financing to alleviate their housing insecurity. It’s further leveragec by a Shitload of skull and bones types.

Bear Vancouverite
Member
Active Member
Bear Vancouverite

A lifetime is 75+yrs, that’s a long time to wait.

patriotz
Member

“Honk Kong is off their charts. Debt/GDP almost at 400% in 16Q2.”

HK is a major corporate headquarters for the Far East. Since most corporations are in debt to some extent, you get a high debt/GDP. Same for Luxembourg, whose small population doesn’t have a reputation for living on credit.

You have to look at household debt alone if you want a figure relevant to housing.

Just me
Guest
Just me

I am aware of that. But part of the leveraging in HK is for funds deployed elsewhere. This matters infinitely for Vancouver.

Ulsterman
Member
Well, it’s been almost 15 years of being wrong about this market. Yup, believe it or not back in 2003 people thought prices were too high. Yes, it’s comical now, but at the time when you watched a Commercial Drive condo go from 80k to 115k within a year, people were worried about buying at a peak…. Anyhow, 2018 certainly looks like there are many factors aligned against rising prices: 1) SFH prices have already been falling 2) rates are rising 3) more restrictive lending 4) a kinda/sorta foreign buyers’ tax 5) the upcoming stress test 6) insane debt levels What i have learned through bitter experience is that the LM market can be incredible resilient, so i won’t get my hopes up for a really significant drop in prices, but i genuinely do think SFH’s will be cheaper a… Read more »
Just me
Guest
Just me
Ditto. I am not keeping my hopes up. As I said before, the key aspect is whether the Provincial government finally (after 20 years of pillage) decides that enough is enough and seriously taxes idle RE investment. Having said that, I will make a prediction: if nothing changes in a year from now, there will be seismic waves in our political and social system. The anger and discontent are palpable and cuts across different social groups. We are still a democracy. And when politicians ignore discontent in democracies, bad things happen and populists take over. The boomers have made their money, and they are no longer the political force they were 10 years ago. Pandering to them is myopic as a purely political calculation. For the first time, I feel comfortable saying that in Metro Vancouver the silent majority has… Read more »
UBC in crisis mode
Guest

If only boomers vote, then little hope for change:

From Election BC:
“Not only were older individuals more likely to vote, the data show that older individuals were more likely to be consistent voters. Half or more of eligible voters aged 60 to 84 were classified as consistent voters, with a maximum of 74% of those registered voters between 70 and 74 years of age.
… …
In absolute numbers, the greatest number of voters is found in the 50-54 age category (nearly 188,000). Because of the impact of the baby boom on voter demographics, 43% of voters were between the ages of 45 and 64.
Registered voters under the age of 40 accounted for one-quarter (23%) of voters but 43% of all non-voters.”

http://elections.bc.ca/docs/stats/Who-heads-to-the-polls.pdf

Just me
Guest
Just me

All I am saying is that, with each additional year, the relative power of baby boomers naturally wanes. And many of those 50-year-olds, who account for the largest demographic group, are bloody furious right now.
The ranks of the winners are shrinking, those of the losers are growing. The NDP better put its ear to the ground.
People were not so pissed off before, even as recently as 2015. There is real anger and they will show up to vote, as they did in Metro Van in May 2017. The Libs were effectively wiped out of Vancouver proper.

patriotz
Member

“And many of those 50-year-olds, who account for the largest demographic group, are bloody furious right now.”

Anybody 50-54 today (i.e. born in 1963-1967) would have had ample opportunities to buy into the RE market when prices were reasonable. These figures are national but I don’t think metro Vancouver would be different given its overall ownership rate:

https://www.statcan.gc.ca/daily-quotidien/171025/cg-c004-eng.htm

Just me
Guest
Just me

You would be surprised how many 50 years olds with high incomes are unsatisfied about high prices. In Metro they are the majority, at least in the areas I know well.

Lost....but not leased
Guest
Lost....but not leased

Old nuggets of wisdom state that if elections ACTUALLY made a difference voting would be B-A-N-N-E D.

Bear Vancouverite
Member
Active Member
Bear Vancouverite

You would fit in well with the rest of the locusts running China, they also say voting doesn’t make a difference. Go to China you damn locust.

Lost....but not leased
Guest
Lost....but not leased

People seem to forget that we had an NDP gov’t in Victoria for approx. 10 years….ie most of the 1990’s. I recall a litany of stupid ideas..such as deeming publically – owned infrastructure as “assets” like a private corporation. I addition, the NDP insisted all workers on public projects be paid at union wage scales. Remember photo radar?

Regardless, this begs the classic question…why didn’t people(locals) buy back then…thing were cheaper right ?

Boombust
Guest
Boombust

@003 is the tear it all began and yes, it WAS a bubble back then when price/rent and price/income ratios are factored in. This correction will be a real doozy.

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

2 million people will be given 10 year visas.

200,000 new foreign students will be admitted.

Just saying.

Best place on meth
Member
Best place on meth

China Launches New Capital Controls: Puts $15,000 Annual Cap On Overseas ATM Withdrawals

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-12-30/china-launches-new-capital-controls-puts-15000-annual-cap-overseas-atm-withdrawals

Back in September 2015 – long before bitcoin became the “world’s biggest bubble in history”, and when it was still trading at just $200 – we explained not only that the primary purpose behind the use of the cryptocurrency was evading capital controls, but predicted that it would rise much, much higher as more Chinese, and not only, money launderers caught on to the real function of bitcoin and other cryptos….

….But before Vancouver and Toronto real estate agents panic and liquidate all inventory on fears the Chinese “hot money” flood will shortly cease, keep an eye on the price of bitcoin: with Beijing once again cracking down on conventional money transfer means, i.e., debit and credit cards, the only avenue left will be cryptocurrencies.

Doomcouver
Guest
Doomcouver

The repeated currency control tightening and the unprecedented flood of money being parked in overseas real estate leads me to believe that Communist Party insiders must have known the clampdown was going to intensify. I agree this is very bullish for any crypto-currencies accessible from within China. Also, if the economic situation turns ugly in China, and I anticipate it will, I expect China to start demanding repatriations of capital for bad loans with Chinese banks. Any country not wanting to be embroiled in a trade war with China will be obliged to comply.

Just me
Guest
Just me

Of course they knew. China is a hierarchical oligarchy. Even XI Jinping probably owns a few real estate units here and there.

This is the most sickening aspect to me: I am OK being outbid dead by a doctor, a lawyer, an engineer or a local entrepreneneur. These guys produce something useful and desirable for me locally.

I do resent, however, having corrupt officials laundering distrust money and outbidding me.

Lost....but not leased
Guest
Lost....but not leased

For what its’ worth….there are those that claim China, by absorbing much of the USA debt, will ultimately lay claim to much of the land in the USA….such as California.

Many of the alleged natural disasters in the US( ie Hurricane Katrina…Houston floods…California wildfires…) have had opportunists claim Eminent Domain.

UBC in crisis mode
Guest

Flipper Special: listed for $3,800,000
http://www.realtylink.org/prop_search/Detail.cfm?areatitle=&ARPK=&ComID=&agentid=&MLS=R2198449&rowc=18&rowp=16&BCD=GV&imdp=9&RSPP=5&AIDL=22&SRTB=P_Price&ERTA=False&MNAGE=0&MXAGE=200&MNBT=0&MNBD=0&PTYTID=5&MNPRC=2000000&MXPRC=5000000&SCTP=RS

Sales History:

Sale Date: March 31, 2017
Sale Price $3,330,000

Sale Date
December 1, 2010
Sale Price
$2,190,000

Sale Date
March 27, 2010
Sale Price
$2,200,000

Sale Date
May 1, 2001
Sale Price
$850,000

Sale Date
May 27, 1994
Sale Price
$820,000

Lost....but not leased
Guest
Lost....but not leased

RE data;
Intriguing is the May 27, 1994 sale of $820,000 VS May 1, 2001 sale price of $850,000….an appreciation of only $30,000 in 7 years.
Likely due to the Hong Kong money drying up (1997)and before Mainland China geared up .

I can recall SFH on the west side of Vancouver, 49th and Granville area , going for about $250K in mid 1980’s.

So……where were the buyers?

Bear Vancouverite
Member
Active Member
Bear Vancouverite

Happy New Year all. I hope in 2018 we see less of the damn locusts and freeloaders “Lost but not leased”, Oracle, and see more actual sharing of articles and factual data.

Oh, and “bestplaceonearth” I hope you learn how to spell and write properly, being illiterate isn’t all it’s cracked up to be, but you might be a freeloader, in which case you probably don’t have much incentive to learn.

Lost....but not leased
Guest
Lost....but not leased

Atta girl BV….
Some of us wish ALL a Happy New Year…

YVR
Guest
YVR

We all wish we could see less locusts and freeloaders in 2018. But we know that ain’t gonna happen under the NDP where locusts and freeloaders (aka newcomers) are welcome and will not be targeted in the 2018 budget. We also know Horgan will protect the locust equity that they have worked so hard for to fund their retirement. What exactly does a locust retire from anyway?

Bag it and tag it
Member
Bag it and tag it

Yeah…let’s go back to the Libs…we all know they’ll solve the problem!

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

If nothing on housing next month, then I’m voting LIBERAL.

Lower income taxes. Renters would be STUPID to vote NDP if they do nothing on housing. You really want to pay for $10 daycare, education, healthcare of astronaut families??? Privatize everything!!

Voting BC Liberals next election for lower taxes. Most of you will come around to this.

Abdul Lahazi
Guest
Abdul Lahazi

Hopefully 2018 will be the year of locust extermination. It is sickening what these creeps have done to Vancouver.

Best place on meth
Member
Best place on meth

“The Rape of Vancouver” will be written about in history books.

YVR
Guest
YVR

Yup, that and “The Big BC Election Fraud of 2017”.

Lost....but not leased
Guest
Lost....but not leased

Rape of Vancouver???….how about Genocide of Western Civilization.
There is NOTHING special about Vancouver/Metro Vancouver..we get the RE pimps usual propaganda of Skiing in morning/go to beach in afternoon…..go clubbing at night… whooopee !!!!

On the oligarchical front..Vancouvers PORTS are key…give or take YVR.

We are already observing Non Caucasians increasingly seeking and attaining public office..does anyone think that Tribal links will be trumped by Democracy? Bwahaahahahahha

If you think it is corrupt now(which it is)..just wait till EI’s or C’s etc. have the balance of power.

…suckers….

Abdul Lahazi
Guest
Abdul Lahazi

Same thing happens when the Muslims take over; Sharia law.

Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

You’ve been reading your neo-Nazi websites again?

ChinaOne
Guest
ChinaOne

My cousin buy 4 Canada Goose. sorrwy wrong blog.

Specuskeptic
Member

The blue/diamond pattern avatar betrays your ChinaOne handle there, Oracle. No shame there at all. Amazing. Posts are only one minute apart no less. #sad

Madcat
Guest
Madcat
I agree with Ulsterman… This has been an incredibly frustrating 15 years. Watching the government drop interest rates, extend amortization periods, reduce down payments, introduce first time home buyer programs… It’s enough to make me want to see a politician get burned at a stake… They should never have allowed the housing market to get this out of control! This whole thing has made hard-earned down payment money worthless… Even if you saved a half a million dollars you can’t get a decent house in the lowermainland without a massive mortgage!! Outrageous! It’s a disgusting mess and the NDP better announce something major in February. If they chicken out under the ‘gotta be responsible/don’t want to hurt the economy’ bull crap they’re going to get booted by the first person who promises to shake s*** up… News flash to the… Read more »
Just me
Guest
Just me

One thing that I really do not wish for 2018 is to hear our elected government come up with more lame excuses like: “We need to be responsible and do not want to put in place measures that might damage the hard-earned equity of homeowners”. It is unavoidable that lower house prices would have a feedback effect, but it is short-term pain for long-term gain. The city will be better off down the line.

You cannot make an omelette without breaking eggs.

YVR
Guest
YVR

You mean you hope the NDP don’t follow through with their most recent promise of protecting home owners equity (keeping prices high).

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

Of the 40% popular vote the NDP got, only 10% would have to raise a ruckus to get their attention. Those 10% can decimate the party for decades unless they take drastic action.

Unfortunately, the apologists keep believing their delaying tactics.

Lost....but not leased
Guest
Lost....but not leased
Re Boomers: The early wedge of the Boomers(born 1940’s-early 1950’s) are members of the lucky sperm club…but not all Boomers. When Gold was decoupled from USD(and then Petrodollar) in early 1970’s, inflation took off. Early boomers who bought RE in the 1960’s did very well. Many simply kept leveraging their equity and building up their RE portfolio.However, a lot of Boomers , who say graduated in the mid- late 1970’s, got caught up in the pre -Chinese Boom Bust,.when interests rates were 20%+. So…late Boomers, in early- mid 1980’s, (within 5 years)went from high interest rates to Hong Kong Invasion.The later Boomers had first hand experience on how an economy could turn on a dime. Then we get Douglas Coupland types continually defining generations and setting off pissing matches.Yeah..Gen X..Millenials etc. , may have some reason to bitch, but really… Read more »
Oracle
Guest
Oracle

I agree, but without organization, nothing happens. No NDP insiders have been selling RE. They have been buying. That is telling.

Lost....but not leased
Guest
Lost....but not leased
GT latest post with predictions for 2018….. —NDP will bring in a speculation tax and double the one on foreign buyers. —Detached Real Estate collapse will accelerate IMHO….I see the NDP sitting on the sidelines..at least via trying to dampen the RE market. They do not want to be perceived as equity destroyers. Instead, they will try some token moves….ie some sort of social housing, …credits…rebates… A speculation tax ? Can’t see it. The system is so infiltrated that many “innocent” parties will be impacted….ie that 70 year old couple that bought 50 years ago for say $30,000 and whose home is now worth $2 Million. How do you separate them in a practical fashion ? I’ve previously outlined how EI’s have made an industry of buying/building/flipping primary residences in short time frames. Seems CONDOS are continually ignored..ignorance is bliss?
Just me
Guest
Just me

What do you mean about the older couple? Is there some rule that we all have to retire as housing millionaires? They have a home, to start with. Something not many older people in Vancouver can say in 2017.
You are being ridiculous: we should be honest and fair. Tax housing wealth to restore some sanity, that is the on;y way out. The rest is more transfers to the already wealthy.

We have tried to go slowly and see where we have ended up.

bestplaceonearth
Guest
bestplaceonearth

is there also rule that the hard workings and good savers have to look after the freeloaders? people are being taxed to death, and you are calling for more taxes! if you want honest and fair, work harder.

Just me
Guest
Just me

I work very hard. I save very hard. I cannot afford a home in Vancouver.
Many of the people who got these massive tax free capital gains were simply lucky (or worse gambling that the Chinese would keep coming and that our government would remain idle).

Shame on you for even suggesting that those who are not homeowners in Vancouver are lazy or worse. Many hard-working people are effectively priced out of this place because our former government decided that homeowners should win and others should lose.

Lost....but not leased
Guest
Lost....but not leased

Nobody is debating the fact that the RE metrics are screwed up and have been for decades,

Do you not think Boomers and older generations do not have younger family members, friends etc. affected to the same degree(or worse ) than you are ?

WE are A-L-L victims of failed and incompetent political leadership

Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

“Nobody is debating the fact that the RE metrics are screwed up and have been for decades,”

Oh, please. There have been many instances over these “decades” when Vancouver RE has been more than fairly priced using whatever metrics you choose.

Lost...but not leased
Guest
Lost...but not leased

Whatever….
The general public seems to be historically gun- shy to pull the trigger on RE when subjected to boom – bust cycles.

Check the prime rates in link below…from 1935 onward.
https://www.ratehub.ca/prime-mortgage-rate-history

Duly note the biggest spike in 35 years was in the 1969/1970 period …when inflation began to take off.

The rate did not go below 5% till 2002….then again in 2008 and plateau’d at around 3% since then.

People , as a rule, don’t jump in during bear markets,( ie when opportunities present themselves)…… when SHTF they tend to assume the worst and hibernate.

QUESTION: when, not if, the RE market t-a-n-k-s, does anyone think human nature will change? aka lots of “buying” opportunities but will many dare take the plunge ?

Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

Of course. Everybody rushing in will quickly transform into everybody wanting to stay away (including many of those who have been waiting for 10+ years). But that’s the best time to buy.

Just me
Guest
Just me

Is there ever a bad time to buy in your opinion?
You sound like a broken record: now is always a great time to get into the market.

bestplaceonearth
Guest
bestplaceonearth
“Shame on you for even suggesting that those who are not homeowners in Vancouver are lazy or worse”. Where did I suggest this? The problem with you, you are reading too much of what is not there. And if I call out the freeloaders, they know who they are. I am sorry to disappoint you, but no one is entitled a home in Vancouver. Shame on you to call for more taxes to the elderly who just happened to own a home for many decades; last time I check, it’s not a crime to have a million dollar on paper for these elderly. Shame on your to call for more taxes on the homeowners, who already pay taxes on taxes to feed the addict habit and free needles. And it’s a shame for any capable individuals relying on the government… Read more »
Just me
Guest
Just me

Much is said of taxing wealth in the public debate. But homes are a sacred cow. We need to start changing that, bit by bit. Idle investments in RE are the most deleterious to society. Land taxes are some of the most efficient and less distortive taxes available to governments, it is a well-known fact.

Lost....but not leased
Guest
Lost....but not leased

You are simply venting….and flailing..and drowning in your own rhetoric.

The principal residence exemption was likely based on trying to attract Canadians into Home Ownership like CMHC. intent…but not to allow foreigners in to exploit. Go to the Emergency Room in your nearest hospital….or observe schools when classes dismissed….wheres Whitey?

You and others lose BIG TIME when you get sucked into Tax the Rich bullshite and paper millionaires…..such views simply let Gov’ts off the hook for effectively keeping classic Canadian Citizens as tax cows as foreigner hordes flood in and skew/screw up everything.

By allowing all these foreigners in, we are “taxing” everything…..schools, hospitals..welfare etc..

Suggest review the Clowen Piven strategy…

Just me
Guest
Just me

The tax exemption of capital gains for the first residence was meant as an incentive to entice people into home ownership. This was done in a time period when homes were considered as a safety net and something to live in. The exemption was never meant to give unlimited tax-free capital returns to investors, local or foreign.

You are also missing another key point: we are already taxing some of the rich a lot. However, not those who hold their wealth in housing. What I propose is to spread taxes more evenly: tax equity returns less, tax house appreciation more (or at least something at all!)

Lost...but not leased
Guest
Lost...but not leased
My old neighborhood is a good case study. Over 100 SFH lots..original selling price $ 2,000…..early 1960’s. All in, the whole house would cost around$15-$20,000. Homes were of 3 basic styles. ..Rancher(bungalow), …2 story or … split level or . ..majority built under CMHC. Neighborhood solid middle class…..mainly young families……mostly white. We knew property investors…who would buy, hold and rent…long term… ….NOT flip. They would build up an RE portfolio for 20+ years……even multi-generational. NOTE: Many people chose not to buy, though they likely could afford to..ownership was not their thing. In those days, the landlord/investor metrics would be a downpayment and rent covered the mortgage. Inflation existed, but nowhere near the degree we have had over last 30 HAM years Now, in my old neighbourhood, properties with 50+ year old homes sell around $2 Million …..almost all HAM driven.… Read more »
patriotz
Member

“The tax exemption of capital gains for the first residence was meant as an incentive to entice people into home ownership. ”

Canada had no capital gains taxes of any kind until 1972. Home ownership had been the norm for middle class families for decades before that, so I don’t think the exemption was meant to “entice” anyone.

This was a time of the highest general inflation Canada has ever seen – everything was going up. This means that if principal residences had not been exempted, people selling to move to another job or to downsize would have faced a heavy tax penalty when in real terms they weren’t ahead at all. Such barriers to mobility are bad policy.

Just me
Guest
Just me

Obviously they got the policy wrong. Now we have a total wall, rather than a barrier, to inward mobility. And even people who own are stuck in their accommodation, as they cannot upgrade.

Brilliant public policy?

Lost...but not leased
Guest
Lost...but not leased

Re Capital Gains..

Canada once had a ” $100,000 ” LIFETIME EXEMPTION for investments etc….aka one was able to claim this besides PR housing…the Chretien Liberals cancelled it in the early 1990’s.

Madcat
Guest
Madcat

There is no need to tax housing gains… This is not something we want the government putting their sticky little fingers into… There are much better ways to chill the housing market.

A speculation tax…. A tax on secondary home ownership. A ban on corporate ownership from purchasing single-family properties unless the home is to be demolished and a new property built. Only allow foreigners to buy lease-hold properties… Increase minimum down payment size. Decrease Max amortization periods…

Just me
Guest
Just me

Can someone explain to me why capital gains above 1.5 million dollars are acceptable, in the spirit of the original law? That law was meant to help families put together a nest egg, not meant to help people become multimillionaires on the back of strong RE markets?

Put simply: why do I have to pay 30% on capital gains for my equity investments? And why people with even more wealth held in housing should go tax-free?

bestplaceonearth
Guest
bestplaceonearth

Encouraging home ownership to create a more stable society? There is a million reasons on Google. You like government policy; so there it is. Why did you not invest into your housing first before putting the your money into equity market? You made a wrong calculation, and now you whine for more taxes to the homeowners, just because it’s not fair to you. In case you did not notice, Moonbeam and the Vision goons treat the homeowners like a money tree to feed his pathetic greenest bike lanes on earth.

Just me
Guest
Just me

Is that the best response you can come up with? Heavens help us if these are the new rich in our society…..

Bestplaceonearth
Guest
Bestplaceonearth

Only You need help from heaven. The rest are doing just fine.

Just me
Guest
Just me

The government is currently encouraging speculation and get-rich-quick schemes, while penalizing hard working Canadians who cannot realistically purchase abides appropriate for their families.

Great public policy. Really fantastic.

Abdul Lahazi
Guest
Abdul Lahazi

and you can leverage a house purchase at 100% try doing that with a stock portfolio.

Lost...but not leased
Guest
Lost...but not leased

Robson Street store closing after 93 per cent property tax increase

https://globalnews.ca/news/3924007/robson-street-store-closing-after-93-per-cent-property-tax-increase/

Scroll to the audio interview starting @ 6:40 mark. HIGHLIGHTS are property owned for 40 years……owner proposed rental housing..denied by Mayor Moonbeam and Vision cult members..forced to sell via OCP change.

Lost...but not leased
Guest
Lost...but not leased

What’s the difference between a house appreciating versus a stock ?
You buy/ invest……. then see what happens.

With principal residence, you own a building..a real thing,which you choose to live in. Stocks are not homes….they are investment- speculation vehicles..you buy because you expect their to be future gains.

With a stock….(and IMHO that market is crookeder than RE)…if it goes from say $1/share to $100 share…that actually requires work ?

History is littered with stock shares that end up as @ss-wipe…whereas in an RE collapse the dwelling unit still exists…. a “REAL” as in REAL ESTATE.

Abdul Lahazi
Guest
Abdul Lahazi
You clearly do not understand stock markets or investing. Companies exist to make money and houses exist as shelter. Housing has become a speculative investment but it is a non-performing asset that costs money to own. Shares in a good company should generate earnings and dividends for cash flow or reinvestment and will not be “@sswipe” as you so eloquently state. There are lots of great companies out there to invest in. You think the stock market is crookeder than real estate? With R/E there is no transparency and a lying agent to deal with. At least with stocks there is transparency and everyone can see the trades and the prices and who is bidding at what price. The company’s audited earnings are out there for all to see. There are all kinds of metrics to accurately value a company.… Read more »
Lost...but not leased
Guest
Lost...but not leased

The point was question the fairness issue..Principal Residence(PR) exempted…all else subject to capital gains tax.

A small % of the population is vested in the stock market.
Alleged stats claim majority of Canadians own a ” home “, which, right of wrong, will often be their retirement nest egg. By virtue of inflation almost guaranteed appreciation.

That’s likely one reason the Feds won’t touch this “RE nest egg ” to any major degree…perhaps the OSFI stress tests etc are being brought forward to minimize the negative effect on RE as a retirement nest egg.

Otherwise, if into stocks..go for it..tend to be more winners than losers…otherwise regale us with your wins and perhaps share some tips.

Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

If you’re paying capital gains that must mean you’ve maxed your TFSA. Yet you say you cannot afford a home. Perhaps instead of “home” you meant to say “Westside SFH”?

Just me
Guest
Just me

Answer the simple question: why tax investments in productive firms and equity heavily, while giving idle RE a free ride?

And yes, 5500 tax free per year does not make you rich. Having a TFSA is not the way to buy RE in Vancouver, does not even pay you RE agent fees any longer.

Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

Um, agent fees are paid by the seller. Of course the costs are passed onto the buyer but that means they’re lumped in with the mortgage rather than paid upfront. Your costs as a buyer (aside from the downpayment) will be legal expenses of only $1000-2000 and that’s on the pessimistic side.

If you’ve maxed out your TFSA and have done so over the last few years rather than recently (ie it had also experienced growth) then you should have more than enough for a downpayment in it.

Capital gains are not taxed “heavily” either. But they probably will be next spring due to the idiot have-nots and their twisted definition of “fairness”.

Just me
Guest
Just me

What is your definition of a downpayment in Vancouver? 60K?
Come on, you must be kidding. You almost sound like a realtor trying to convince people they can make it.
Prices are so out of whack that a 60k downpayment is not even enough for a two bed condo in Port Moody.

bestplaceonearth
Guest
bestplaceonearth

who said you are entitled a place in Vancouver by the way? Many others have made it worked, but not you. Ask yourself!

Just me
Guest
Just me

Reading your posts is bevoming increasingly difficult.
Learn English. Then we can try and chat.

Bestplaceonearth
Guest
Bestplaceonearth

So now it’s the English problem. I am not trying to chat with you by the way. I just don’t like the sense of entitlement you possess, and your tax the rich attitude.

Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

I’m not a realtor. A realtor would have remembered Property Transfer Tax.

I’d also wager that 60K is significant compared to what many first timers put down.

Just me
Guest
Just me

Wager what you want. 60k is peanuts, even in the burbs.

Abdul Lahazi
Guest
Abdul Lahazi

I have $60k lost in my sofa cushions …

Bestplaceonearth
Guest
Bestplaceonearth

Had you not sit there whining for the past years, you could have had your own condo. Unfortunately, you just wanted a house on the West side.

Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

60K is 5% down on $1.2m. Easily enough for a 2 bed condo pretty much anywhere you choose. You’d also get a house in many places – just ask Oracle. But I guess you’re entitled to a Shaughnessy mansion as your first home.

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

Many diehard NDPrs are going to be severely disappointed in a little over a month.

They are not even trying to talk down the market.

The Greens are crooks in this too. Wait until the referendum fails.

bestplaceonearth
Guest
bestplaceonearth

They are still studying how to create a panel of professionals to investigate of how to come up with the term of references. It might be a while.

Lost...but not leased
Guest
Lost...but not leased
Canadian citizenship applications surge after government relaxes language, residency rules http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canadian-citizenship-increase-changes-1.4456879 QUOTE; There was a spike in applications for Canadian citizenship after the government relaxed the rules around residency requirements and language proficiency this fall. Figures from Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship provided to CBC News show there was an average of 3,653 applications a week in the six months before changes were brought in Oct. 11. The number shot up to 17,500 applications the week after the new requirements kicked in. There were 12,530 applications submitted the week after that, but data for subsequent weeks is not yet available. ——————————————————————————————- QUOTE: ‘Integration journey’ “We want people to become citizens because we believe that’s part of the integration journey,” he said. “That helps them feel part of Canada and ultimately should improve all the economic, social and political outcomes of the… Read more »
Bag it and tag it
Member
Bag it and tag it

Good thing they reduced the language age from 64 to 54 so that we can make citizens of all the illiterate unemployed residents so they can receive full retirement benefits….

history
Guest
history

To me the best example of integration, was when 39 people in Sante Fe back in 1997, caught a fast ride to the outer solar system on the Hale-Bopp comet.

The above example of integration is more like Interface, when a forest fire comes up your drive way and burns your house down.

CRA221
Guest
CRA221

BC assessments are now out. Most prices have significantly increased since last year. The train keeps running……

Check it out. Surprising since I thought prices were easing a bit as of last July.

Joe Money
Guest

BC Assessments are based on July 1st valuations. So, whatever has happened since July would not be taken into account.

CRA221
Guest
CRA221

I love the quotation in this article and how these assessments are being spun… “Assessments are based on values as of July 1, so price INCREASES in the LATTER HALF of the year won’t have a bearing on upcoming assessment notices” [emphasis added].

How I read that is they are basically arguing that prices have gone up even more since July 1st…..not what I’m seeing on “the street,” but I have a feeling there will be a lot of listings in the spring that are even higher now because owners will have seen their properties rise so much on paper. Of course if the market doesn’t come back they will sit…and sit…until someone gets their price.

http://www.delta-optimist.com/news/assessment-hikes-coming-for-lower-mainland-strata-units-1.23131407

Lost...but not leased
Guest
Lost...but not leased

Yeah…why do they((BC Assessment) pick JULY ????
Likely has the highest prices during this month YOY.

https://twitter.com/Hutchyman/status/947382795168448513
2016 tax assessed $2,755,00
2017 tax assessed $2,591,000
Just sold $2,245,000

================================
Also Steve Saretzky:
https://twitter.com/SteveSaretsky/status/947534999753859072

Total Dollar Volume for the Vancouver Detached housing market falls from $8.6B in 2016 to $6.4B in 2017.
A 25% decline year over year.

bestplaceonearth
Guest
bestplaceonearth

how much of the decline related to the disappearing of single lots due to land assembly?

Best place on meth
Member
Best place on meth

None.

Zero.

Lost...but not leased
Guest
Lost...but not leased

Re Assemblies…

In Richmond, these assemblies are springing up all over…City of Richmond general policy is that higher density should be permitted on arterial routes…apparently even if the OCP does not have it listed as such yet.

I’ve seen examples whereby a homeowner/s sells under the SFH zoning…then the developer applies for an amendment..thus the homeowner misses out of the “higher and best use” appreciation.

However, seems like the cat is out of the bag and owners more savvy and these assemblies the next hot RE market.

Bag it and tag it
Member
Bag it and tag it

Curious what the volume was in 2015 considering the last half of 2016 was also very slow due to FBT implementation. 2015 was likely close to $11B

Boombust
Guest
Boombust

Late spring and early summer was a SFD dead cat bounce. It’s all over and done with now.

Just me
Guest
Just me

Unless prices adjust down by 1/3 or more, any decline will be felt minimally by buyers. Valuations are too much out of whack.

Specuskeptic
Member

To get to basic fundamentals, a 50% or more haircut is needed in many places. How/when that happens is somewhat difficult to predict with high confidence…. I suspect there will be more depreciation of housing values than appreciation of incomes or rents. Just a suspicion 😉

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

Prices higher. As much as 25% of sales off market now.

Specuskeptic
Member

Tom Davidoff just made me spit wine all over my keyboard. He hit every trope in the artcile – this paragraph’s a peach.

“You have to think supply is pretty constrained by geography. We can build more condos, but it’s hard to add land. We’re hemmed in by oceans and mountains and those are beautiful oceans and mountains, and rich people all over the world keep getting richer and a lot of them want to come to Canada.”

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/hoping-to-buy-a-home-in-b-c-sorry-it-s-not-likely-to-get-much-cheaper-1.4457160

Doomcouver
Guest
Doomcouver

The “not making any more land” trope is an especially stupid one. Though Vancouver is short on empty land, there’s no shortage in the GVR, and prices have gone vertical throughout the lower mainland. Land hoarding and speculation are making things expensive even though there’s tons of land to go around. Tom Davidoff is in the back pocket of the real estate industry, and you’re not likely to get an objective viewpoint from him.

Just me
Guest
Just me

He did not say there is no land. He said that zoning restrictions do not allow to develop it properly.

However, I think he missed an important point: some people buy land and leave it empty, waiting for appreciation. These idle investments should be taxed, if we had a serious government.

Lost...but not leased
Guest
Lost...but not leased

Under the radar screen…

What is occurring is Local Gov’ts are zoning Non Residential( ie Industrial/Commercial) TO Residential….which seriously skews the OCP.

However, Port Metro Vancouver ( PMV ) has been buying up a lot of land in ALR (cheaply) . PMV is a Federal agency, has no restrictions, and can rezone ALR for its own purposes (ie for industrial and commercial uses).

Watch this dynamic play out.

LS in Arbutus
Guest
LS in Arbutus

We simply have to agree that Vancouver is not, (other than west end) dense. Go to a big city if you want to see dense.

Lost...but not leased
Guest
Lost...but not leased
http://www.richmond-news.com/news/top-5-richmond-stories-of-2017-1.23132034 Top-5 Richmond stories of 2017 Here are some of the top issues and matters that helped transform Richmond this year 2. Money laundering – A Postmedia investigation uncovered serious allegations of drug-fuelled money laundering emanating from China and ending in Richmond’s real estate market. B.C.’s Attorney General David Eby called for a review of gaming policies, with River Rock Casino and Resort at the centre of controversy. Reports indicate public safety is at risk. 3. Chinese enclave – Richmond became the first city in Canada to have a visible minority become a majority, when ethnic Chinese folks tallied 54 per cent of the population, per the 2016 census — which also revealed the city’s population nearing 200,000, at the same time families are shown to be exiting while residents are ageing overall 4. Passport babies – Richmond is the… Read more »
Best place on meth
Member
Best place on meth

Stolen pumpkins.

Abdul Lahazi
Guest
Abdul Lahazi

Mandarin language strata councils.

Lost...but not leased
Guest
Lost...but not leased

Actually…talked to a senior recently who lives in a Richmond strata.
Same problem…Chinese taken over strata council and conducting meetings in Mandarin.

As is becoming so predictable..they are cutting back on such things as basic landscaping and reducing strata fees…all in the hive mentality this will make the units more marketable.

The Human Rights council will hear a complaint made by another Richmond strata owner(since moved )on the same issue..

It’s should be clear to any potential strata buyer that this is..or will be… THE NORM……”.no round eyes”

history
Guest
history

Round eyes get out of fixed housing and into your luxury micro living van. 7 or 8 years, you’ll love it. The message that Slant eyes have taken over Strata councils, operating from a position of a thousand tiny cuts, and last hour deadlines…. well, this is written into Our Age, plus alot of other funky shit Dyonisis plans to Do to homes, houses and families.

Lost...but not leased
Guest
Lost...but not leased

Undercover video at Richmond strata council meeting:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TLLyeMm8ZK0

Lost...but not leased
Guest
Lost...but not leased

Real Estate Confusion – Bull Traps – Where are we Now?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xNiodFHNZqc&t=11s

Good discussion of BULL TRAP (in any investment)….

QUESTION: Are we in the midst of one ?

history
Guest
history

The bull trap was in the FV after the Prov Election. The data is out there. Confirmed by the Gretzky Saretzky, who passed the China puck to pak/India, who funnelled it along up the ice to SuBpRiMe HeloC, deaked the Fujians goaltenders legs… GOooooooaaaaaaalllll

Just me
Guest
Just me

Feeling of ‘stuckflation prevalent in B.C., says CEO of the B.C. Non-Profit Housing Association.

http://vancouversun.com/business/real-estate/planning-and-building-affordable-housing-in-2018-ceo-of-the-b-c-non-profit-housing-association

Everyone has gotten stuck in their current housing type. If you owned a condo and wanted to buy a townhome, the cost has increased between (the two), more than you have been able to afford, so you feel stuck in a condo. If you are a renter and you wanted to buy, well, that gap has risen faster.

The top end keeps getting richer, but not in cash, only in equity, which it can’t access unless it sells. The whole chain feels stuck.

Just me
Guest
Just me

I worked in politics for basically 20 years and never saw housing as a top-five issue. To see it be, by far, the top one (now) means the public is keenly aware there is an issue. It may have started for some people around rental or homelessness or the cost of purchasing a home, but I think as people got talking about it more, they realized that, this is something that plays out differently for my child or my parent or grandparent, or my sister. Everybody understands there is a problem, but it’s affecting everybody a little differently.

Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

Ok, so you didn’t work in politics for 20 years. This is just another example of your poor copy/paste habit.

Just me
Guest
Just me

Municipalities were left to deal with allowing for rentals on their own, and they did so with laneway housing and suites, but there hasn’t been enough and now more of these are being used for home offices, listed (for short-term rentals on sites such as) on Airbnb or left empty. It’s all been a real strain.

And yet, you have over 50 per cent of people in Vancouver living in rental.

Eventually, that is going to cause a crush. It caused a crush for everyone, and left a lot of people homeless.

history
Guest
history

We need to talk more about the role of municipal governments in the monitizarion of commonwealth assets into bonds, at the behest of Hedge Fund synthetic QE. These bonds pay enormous salaries, thus used as ShutUp money controling sacred Beauracracy. With QE synthetics you hear “We need to protect hard earned equity”, which is laughable, as you point out… The statement about protecting equity is Proof of out right theft from the Commons, the social wealth, robbed from Canafians by Satan himself.

Just me
Guest
Just me

One thing I know for sure: the solution to our problems is not ever rising house prices.

history
Guest
history

I dont have a problem with high house prices. I’ll never go into a persons house if i can help it. Living in my vehicle is way more efficient, releases more money for the real economy.

UBC in crisis mode
Guest

Hard to get top dollars now for high end properties:
https://www.bcassessment.ca/Property/Info/QTAwMDAwNERHVw==

Bought: May, 2013, $3,728,000.
Built a new house, then listed for $13,380,000 for two years, no takers.
The assessed value of the land doubled in 5 years.

Lost...but not leased
Guest
Lost...but not leased

My understanding was the “spek builders” rule of thumb was if the land cost is “X”…the cost to build a new house was “X”….therefore final price is 2X.

…….otherwise you end up with property out of fiscal touch with the neighbourhood aka non -desireable. This one seems like the builder was a rookie or___?????

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

Paul B:

Talked to some SFD developers in East Van and they said a 25% of all transactions now “Off Market”. Implying that they are not on MLS and harder for CRA and other authorities to track. So the sales are happening…just not on MLS. Looks like the government will leave this loophole open until the sheep figure it out in a few years time.

Lost...but not leased
Guest
Lost...but not leased

Off Market?
That;s interesting..but highly doubtful.

My understanding is RE transactions have to be duly noted and recorded.

https://www.recbc.ca/2015/08/know-your-fintrac-obligations/

CRA is on high alert…
In addition, I think we are entering a bear market of such a zeitgeist people will start to rat each other out.

Best place on meth
Member
Best place on meth

Perhaps some clarification is needed regarding the point oracle was trying to make.

He’s lying again.

Hope that helps.

bestplaceonearth
Guest
bestplaceonearth

at least, he has been right and you…well…never mind…everyone knows.

Specuskeptic
Member

If “right” means throwing shit everywhere and hitting the target once every blue moon is the definition you’re going with, then I guess I’ll have to concur. Have to wade through a big pile of shit though…

history
Guest
history

It is a Blue Moon month, nice catch

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

You’re going to die of high blood pressure.

Relax. It’s a new year! Lol

Specuskeptic
Member

More predictions and extrapolations based on “feelings” and intuitions and not data I see. Carry on, as usual.

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

Yeah, I don’t know. The guy is building several homes with laneway homes and 2 suites each.

No garages or driveways. Lol. Don’t know how city would pass those.

Lost...but not leased
Guest
Lost...but not leased

Oracle…another avatar.?
….either that or have an imposter

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

I think the VPN does it automatically.

history
Guest
history

The antitheseis, if you think about it, is ever more quality areas to park your live-in vehicle overnight.

Best place on meth
Member
Best place on meth

Protesters in Hong Kong march against their evil locust overlords.

http://www.straitstimes.com/asia/east-asia/anti-beijing-protesters-march-in-hong-kong

Just me
Guest
Just me

I am really sorry for the Hong-Kongers. they are a remarkably civilized bunch of people. But they don’t stand a chance against that evil dictatorship called PRC. Human rights and freedom of expression run against what the PRC stands for.

history
Guest
history

Palestine

history
Guest
history

Hong Kong is not the Holy Land of Middlemen? To be fought over in a gruelling turf war?

Lost...but not leased
Guest
Lost...but not leased

I think this(link below) was the scene at YVR right after 1986 when Li Kai Shing bought Expo lands.

Duly note the insurmountable onslaught of initial wave of foreign locusts..(maybe look for Bob Rennie cameo …)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VywKJSglL24

BubbleTea
Guest
BubbleTea

2017 Review by VCG: 25% decline Vancouver Detached Dollar Volume.
Average sales price of a detached home fell 6.5%.
Detached sales plunged by 20% for the year.
“Detached sales haven’t been this low since 2008. This has ultimately led to downwards pressure on prices and you can see that reflected in the average and median sales price. I’ll be very curious to see how a tightening of mortgage credit impacts detached sales in 2018.”
http://vancitycondoguide.com/year-in-review-2017/

Just me
Guest
Just me

Great post.

“Vancouver Detached Summary. Despite new listings stuck at very low levels, inventory has still climbed substantially. This is largely due to Vancouver detached sales weakening for nearly two full years now. Detached sales haven’t been this low since 2008. This has ultimately led to downwards pressure on prices and you can see that reflected in the average and median sales price. I’ll be very curious to see how a tightening of mortgage credit impacts detached sales in 2018.”

Just me
Guest
Just me

“Vancouver Condo Summary. The big story here is new listings and overall inventory levels. Both are near record low levels. Nobody wants to sell as prices reach new record highs each month. With 40,000 units under construction in Greater Vancouver I suspect this should help ease inventory constraints in 2018. I think the largest price increases are behind us but time will tell.”

Lost....but not leased
Guest
Lost....but not leased

SFH is a dead issue..its really a non entity…

Suckers are being lured baited and groomed for “Condo Bull Trap” ****WARNING****** WARNING *****WARNING…*****

Boombust
Guest
Boombust

Told ya so. And, SFDs always set the market direction. Always. Both Up and then DOWN.

Abdul Lahazi
Guest
Abdul Lahazi

Homeowners can now see property assessments as of July 1 online

http://www.news1130.com/2018/01/01/property-assessments/

You can now see property assessments as of July 1, 2017 online at bcassessment.ca. Highlights of assessment changes in local communities will be made available on Tuesday.

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