Canada, debt, economy, opinion, predictions, rates

Rate hikes in 2018

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Southseacompany points out this article in the Financial Post warning of ‘three or more‘ rate hikes next year.

Investors are assigning a 20 per cent chance of an increase at the decision Wednesday, with a statement to be released at 10 a.m. Ottawa time. Only four of 26 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News expect Poloz to increase his 1 per cent benchmark rate, with all major Canadian banks expecting a pause.

Central bank policy makers — who raised borrowing costs for the first time in seven years in July and September — are handling the normalization of policy very carefully. By their own measure, interest rates are still a full 2 percentage points below what they would consider “neutral” but the Bank of Canada is wary of raising borrowing costs too quickly for fear of inadvertently triggering another downturn.

Read the full article here.

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Abdul Lahazi

Watch China’s efforts to influence as Canada pursues trade, says former envoy

https://app.tmxmoney.com/news/cpnews/article?locale=EN&newsid=OGF4301208&mobile=false

“Under Xi, China has undertaken a co-ordinated campaign known as the “united front” to influence events in foreign countries, including Canada, said Mulroney.
That includes mobilizing Chinese students and tapping the diaspora in Canada. During past visits by Chinese leaders to Ottawa, the Chinese embassy has bussed in students from Kingston and Montreal to counter the inevitable demonstrations against the Chinese government, he said.”

Communist China cannot be trusted. Period. IDK why we bend over backwards to accommodate China when the fact is we really don’t have to because they would want to come here on OUR terms anyways.

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paulb

New
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TI:8937

http://www.clivestevepaul.com

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patriotz

Confucius Institute in NSW education department ‘unacceptable’ – analyst

The New South Wales Department of Education is the first government department in the world to host a Confucius Institute, part of an international network established by Beijing in 2004 to promote Chinese language and culture and, in the words of a former senior Chinese official, “an important part of China’s overseas propaganda set-up”.

New South Wales is governed by the Australian “Liberal” (i.e. conservative) party.

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Best place on meth

I never hear about these Confucius Institutes in Canada anymore.

Were they all properly and correctly burned to the ground?

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realist

My dear Meth, you need to get out more. Here is but one: the Confucius Institute at BCIT

“The Confucius Institute at BCIT is located in the Vancouver downtown campus of the British Columbia Institute of Technology (BCIT). It was … inaugurated by Chinese State Councilor Chen Zhili and BC Deputy Premier Shirley Bond, on February 7, 2006. Since the first day of operations, the Confucius Institute at BCIT has been faithful to its mission to promote understanding between China and Canada, to strengthen bilateral cooperation and to expand economic and trade exchanges, as well as to develop generations of friendly relationships.” etcetera….
http://confuciusbcit.com/

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Best place on meth

Fortunately it’s just the mini offshoot downtown campus where the international students go, and not the main Burnaby campus.

Still though, ewwww. Shut that fucking thing down.

Promoting chinese culture is like promoting Hepatitis C.

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Combat roach

Confucius Institute is a nickname for massage parlour, traditional knowledge gets passed there. There are plenty of them in Canada.

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Boombust

The Coquitlam School District has hosted them for years.

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Oracle

Hopefully NDP approves Site C.

Then more pressure to do something on housing as all other promises were a big failure.

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Whistler or Bust?

Lets not forget you and your taxi buddies put them power.

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Oracle

Dude, they lied. At least I recognized it after the election. There are some on here that are still in denial.

This has got to be the most fucked up 7 months in BC Poli history. A party basically lied in their ENTIRE platform to get elected.

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bullwhip29

No minimum starting rents set for tenants at three Vancouver developments endorsed by city hall
https://www.straight.com/news/1005516/no-minimum-starting-rents-set-tenants-three-vancouver-developments-endorsed-city-hall

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bullwhip29

Globe and Mail: How B.C. became a gangster’s paradise
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/how-bc-became-a-gangsters-paradise/article37252702/

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Abdul Lahazi

I recall 15+ years ago when these casinos were set up that the RCMP warned the government of the day that these casinos would become crime magnets. And they were right.

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Lost...but not Leased

Seem to recall that warning as well.

This begets the question as WTF are the RCMP good for.?….do they do their master bidding and/or turn a blind eye?

We need neutral apolitical autonomous law enforcement and regulatory bodies that would have automatically been monitoring the casinos from day one and watching for red flags so we would not have this mess to clean up.

Richmond will take a serious hit if the casinos have more eyes watching….they have a shitload of capital projects they stupidly tied casino revenues to for funding….watch the revenue take a big hit.

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Kim

Reading this comment from the Globe’s article that summarizes all the ways Canadians have been betrayed, it made me wonder when do we start calling the lax politicians traitors to their country? ChuckT 6 hours ago Red flags about casinos? Red flags about real estate practices? Red flags about “students” and “homemakers” living in million dollar homes with declared income below the poverty line? Red flags about banks and lawyers consolidating $9,500 deposits into single accounts of over $1 million? But we shouldn’t ask any questions because hashtag it’s 2017 and that would be “racist” to suggest Canada’s laws are a joke to money launderers. Not just money launderers, I’m surprised the Globe hasn’t discussed the “secret” baby mills in Richmond that charge upwards of $50,000 for late term “tourists” to give birth in Canada and secure a Canadian passport… Read more »

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Oracle

The 500,000 aren’t going to be the ones living in condos.

They come here to live in detached. If they wanted to live in condos, they would stay home.

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Best place on meth

” for years been suspicions that Vancouver has been a prime money-laundering destination and that a lot of that cash has been used to fuel the insane rise in house prices. In fact, court documents uncovered by Postmedia’s Sam Cooper, whose seminal reporting has exposed the degree to which money laundering has become a massive undertaking in B.C., show that some of those suspected of having prime roles in this shady business own mansions and penthouses around the city.

Many are Chinese nationals wanting to get money out of the reach of their government and the tight capital controls it has imposed”

You don’t say? This is news to me.

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Just me

Shocking news. Surely not in Vancouver?

Chinese recycling money and parking it in RE? Must be fake news…..

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bullwhip29

Derek Corrigan defeats Gregor Robertson to become chair of Mayors’ Council
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/corrigan-robertson-mayors-council-vote-1.4438258

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Abdul Lahazi

Corrigan is very pro development and anti people. He was also OK with having a known money launderer sitting on Burnaby City Council. The guy is well past his expiry date.

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YVR

Corrigan and Roberston are both NDP. Both are scum.

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Sketchy

How a black market for fish bladders in China corrupted a small town in Mexico

http://money.cnn.com/interactive/news/vaquita-business-of-extinction/

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Laibach

Primitivism, superstition, and stupidity of those locusts keep increasing overall damage to the rest of the planet Earth, the unprecedented global vermin.

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Lost...but not Leased

Help me out here….

Does Poloz sorta look like Kevin Spacey?

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Doomcouver

I just hope he doesn’t behave like Kevin Spacey.

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kabloona

Can he act….?

Cuz “House of Cards” is lookin’ for a new lead….

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Best place on meth

He keeps interest rates in his basement.

Close enough?

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bullwhip29

U.S. rules against Canada softwood in final decision, hefty duties to remain
http://business.financialpost.com/commodities/agriculture/u-s-agency-rules-against-canada-says-softwood-imports-harm-american-industry-2

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bullwhip29

RE: median net worth of Cdns
https://globalnews.ca/news/3902237/canada-family-net-worth-2016/

– i found it both interesting and a little disturbing that although BC apparently has the highest median net worth in the country, the percentage increase over the 4 yr period was more or less in the middle of the pack

– the $ increase in median net worth for the ave british columbian was a measly $66k during the period 2012-2016 all while real estate values and equity prices soared through the roof and the Cdn dollar lost between 20-30% in value against the greenback

– this all points to much higher debt loads and leverage taken on by locals who by many accounts have somehow only managed to tread water during the period studied.

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Boombust

That is why the Metro Vancouver is now correcting.

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Oracle

NDP record so far: SITE C: given green light, dissent within caucus. another in the broken line of promises the last half year. KINDER MORGAN: gov says has no jurisdiction now. project will proceed. election yapping it was. ICBC: nothing after 6 months but a 8% rate increase, and some bandaid very minor tweaks. expect more premium increases. medical-legal-body shops-autoplan community won’t allow changes. BC Hydro: IPP’s being paid billions per year. wait until those contracts are cancelled or we keep paying em. either way screwed. rates to go way up. price for infrastructure means wind and solar (and electric cars) dead for decades in BC. BC Liquor: Monopoly continues and select few have liquor licences now each worths millions because they will also sell pot. RIDESHARING: will not happen as long as this gov is part of any gov… Read more »

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Dave

I’m not convinced a thin minority can last four years, even with the best of intentions. I would put the odds at one of the NDP/Green MLAs having to resign for some reason at more than 50%. I’m not convinced Plecas will prop up the government for the whole term either.

I don’t think Weaver will do anything to take the government down. The Green supporters are more interested in PR than anything else.

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Oracle

Possible. But I just can’t see the NDP going through with a fair referendum.

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Dave

Word on the street is December will be a huge month. People are rushing to beat the new rules. Don’t shoot the messenger.

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bullwhip29

i was told banks are telling clients to get whatever paperwork they have in order by next friday dec 15

was also told OSFI recently did a random audit on a sampling (a few dozen) of mortgage applications at one of the Vanc offices of big 5 banks and more than 95% of the applications were deficient in some regard. details and a breakdown of the various issues were not provided. at the end of the day, one can’t say for sure their is deliberate and widespread fraud going on, but it is clear that there is most certainly a lot of sloppy work being done

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Dave

I’m sure the answer is a bit of both. Obviously 95% of applications are not fraudulent in some way. But, I do think a lot of people are able to trick lenders when it comes to income and I think the brokers are more than happy to be tricked because that’s how you get a deal done and get paid. My intuition would say about 20% of exaggerations in one form or another.

It’s the natural cycle of bureaucracy and paperwork. Once people start losing money, they will go over the top the other way, which ironically, only hurts the market and themselves even more, as it tightens the money supply.

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Laibach

I don’t know for others but all people I know who bought in last 10 years somewhat fudged numbers with the support of all parties involved in order to stretch to the next bigger, better and more expensive RE. Basically, nobody went with the truth and reality but lie and false buying power calling it “the way how things get done and on what everybody agrees upon, meaning no risks whatsoever”.

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Lost...but not Leased

If that’s the case, we will see a big bulge in sales, and rest assured that the data will be manipulated by real estate cartel with some self serving spin .

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Yikes

To stay in tune with market I been checking out the odd open house detached properties….. Vancouver…. it use to be 86% asians and a shoe store on the front step…. lately a half dozen white locals at most. My how things are changing….

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Abdul Lahazi

Condo sales surge pushes Montreal area real estate to best November in eight years

https://app.tmxmoney.com/news/cpnews/article?locale=EN&newsid=07TB03&mobile=false

“Paul Cardinal of the Quebec Federation of Real Estate Boards has attributed monthly housing gains this year to strong job creation, consumer confidence, low unemployment and foreign migration.”

But no mention of speculating Asian buyers???

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backwardsevolution

The ONLY reason long bond rates are not increasing in the U.S. is because the bond market realizes that the Fed has its back, that the Fed will step in again if there is a crash. Hey, what’s been the practice so far? Had the Fed (and the ECB, UK, Japan, China, Switzerland, etc.) not stepped in with massive – MASSIVE – liquidity, interest rates would have shot to the moon. Had the Fed (and the rest of the criminals) not stepped in to buy up underwater assets (preventing bankrupt companies from going under), interest rates would have shot to the moon. Our government has been aiding and abetting the looters, creating winners out of the bankrupt and making losers out of everyone else. They are doing this on purpose. Because it has been done on purpose, with intent to… Read more »

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Just me

All levels of government are picking winners. This cannot last much longer, pressure is growing. Things need changing.
They are destroying the lives of too many, while favouring gamblers and rich investors.

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Oracle

What? ‘Talking’ on the internet? That don’t change shit.

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Best place on meth

That’s never stopped you from trying.

30 times a day.

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history

Something’s not right in my head

Bitcoin
$0000 – $1000: 1789 days
$1000- $2000: 1271 days
$2000- $3000: 23 days
$3000- $4000: 62 days
$4000- $5000: 61 days
$5000- $6000: 8 days
$6000- $7000: 13 days
$7000- $8000: 14 days
$8000- $9000: 9 days
$9000-$10000: 2 days
$10000-$11000: 1 day
$11000-$12000: 6 days
$12,000-$13,000: 17 hours
$13,000-$14,000: 4 hours

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Lost...but not Leased

BitCoin?
….lots of pro vs con info available.
The price rise?? Apparenlty 80% of Bitcoin is held by…drum roll…….Chinese.

All the signs its a suckers market about to crash.

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Best place on meth

They’re also mining the vast majority of it.

Chinese make the best miners, ask anyone.

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kabloona

“Something’s not right in my head…”

Finally, I agree with you on something….

😉

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Yikes

Rob mclister Canada’s well known mortgage expert is selling his house bluntly saying 2018 will not be good for housing, oh and Christy Clack our ex premier is also selling her Vancouver property

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Just me

Links?

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Dave

The bull market case has now boiled down to population growth. When I talk about the market with insiders, that’s the argument I hear back. Prices won’t go down because people are flooding into the Lower Mainland.

Part of me says that it’s a valid argument. The other part of me says that sounds a lot like an excuse, or a rationalization to dismiss everything else that points to a bubble. We’ll see which is correct.

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Confucius

Not a real insider if they say any reason besides them knowing the market direction because they control it.

They sound like industry people who are reliant on the market, making their opinion completely biased. My dad sat in a conference room with other employees of a massive oil company in the 80s. They drew a straight line and said oil prices were going to be 200 dollars. A couple years later most of the people in that room were laid off because prices went the other way.

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Dave

By insider, I am not talking about some conspiracy. I am referring to people who make a living in the real estate industry.

Yes, they are all reliant on the market and are biased to believe a bullish case. The reasons people give can often provide a tell for cognitive dissonance. The common tone I am hearing right now is that population growth will ensure prices stay where they are or keep going up. There is a recognition that a number of forces are working against real estate (interest rates, mortgage changes, new Provincial government, angry public, etc..), but the answer of population growth is an easy way to dismiss all that. That sounds a lot like cognitive dissonance to me. It’s a ‘ya but’ opinion.

We’ll see if population growth can sustain the market, or not.

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Oracle

Less than 36 hrs to Ste C go ahead.

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bullwhip29

US police arrest 50 Chinese nationals, seize US$80m in marijuana plants in raids on ‘syndicate’
http://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/2123219/us-police-arrest-50-chinese-nationals-seize-us80m-marijuana

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bullwhip29

you can guarantee that once pot is legalized here that the very same cast of characters will figure out a way a game the system once again

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Best place on meth

More hilarious whining from the parasites

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/mortgage-professionals-canada-1.4433319

“up to 100,000 buyers would fail the new stress test and be forbidden from buying the home they want at the price they want.”

“Perhaps 50,000 to 60,000 per year will be able to make a different purchase, albeit one that is less attractive to them,” the group said. But “perhaps 40,000 to 50,000 per year will be entirely removed from homeownership.”

“A better level for the stress test, the group says, would be testing borrowers’ finances at an interest rate that’s three-quarters of a percentage point higher, not two.”

Oh god, the horror! Why must we be so cruel to aspiring homeowners!

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Doomcouver

Yeah they’d much rather those 40 to 50k people become insolvent when rates legitimately go up by 2%. What a bunch of self interested dirtbags. The collective greed by realtors, bankers, and home builders in Canada makes me sick.

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patriotz

“up to 100,000 buyers would fail the new stress test and be forbidden from buying the home they want at the price they want.”

Buyers don’t pay the price they want, they pay the price they need to outbid others. As I said before with regard to the same person, he is completely ignoring the basics of how markets work.

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Best place on meth

Mortgage stress tests to reduce housing activity to ‘unnecessary degree’, say crying mortgage brokers.

https://www.bnn.ca/mortgage-stress-tests-to-reduce-housing-activity-to-unnecessary-degree-study-1.934958

My commissions!

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Doomcouver

LOL this made my night. https://vancouver.craigslist.ca/rch/apa/d/tiny-bachelor-unit-innovative/6407839926.html

That’s $500 a month for a CAMPER VAN in Richmond guys. We’ve officially jumped the shark. The multi-decade housing crash is coming in the next 5 years I personally guarantee it.

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AngloMan

“VAN IS NOT FOR SALE”!!! in case anyone would consider buying that piece of Junk for 500$
“15 minute bike ride…………..”!!!??? How long on roller skates?

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AngloMan

Or did i miss the point? Were they cheekily saying ‘Vancouver is not for sale”!
Hmmm

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Confucius

This guy sounds like an absolute douchebag. I thought about quoting him, but every line applies.

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AngloMan

He must have heard you – the post was deleted already…………..

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Doomcouver

I bet someone in this forum sent him a nasty message. :-3 That’s why I show up here, it’s the only place where almost everyone hates scumbag landlords and human garbage aka. speculators even more than I do.

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Just me

Eby is working, quietly and efficiently. I am starting to think this will have much larger implications than originally thought.

Vaughn Palmer: Eby set to play government’s cards on casino crackdown.

http://vancouversun.com/opinion/columnists/vaughn-palmer-eby-set-to-play-governments-cards-on-casino-crackdown

He also this week explained why he chose to proceed via an expedited review with German as opposed to a more formal public inquiry into the abuses. ….. “public inquiries generally take a long time. People lawyer up and it takes a year or two before you get the recommendations. I just don’t feel we have that kind of time and I also don’t think the solutions are so complicated.

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Just me

“Even as he proceeded along the problem-solving as opposed to the fault-finding route, Eby put the blame on the previous B.C. Liberal government for lax enforcement and the resulting damage to the province’s reputation.

Hmmm. With three former cabinet ministers in the race for the Liberal leadership, perhaps outside candidate Dianne Watts will be asking why they and their colleagues were dozing while criminals laundered wads of cash through provincial casinos.”

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Best place on meth

Dianne shouldn’t be crowing about anyone being asleep at the wheel, she should be asking herself why Surrey became a shooting gallery during her years as mayor.

She is as slimy and opportunistic as any politician, jumping from municipal to federal to provincial in what seems like a matter of minutes. She’s not good enough to bring Eby a glass of water but she’d be a fitting replacement for Krusty.

I really believe her when she says she had nothing to do with the fear mongering about ISIS coming to Canada during the last federal election.

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/star-tory-candidate-denies-fear-mongering-in-bc-flyer-controversy/article26501658/

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YVR

“she should be asking herself why Surrey became a shooting gallery during her years as mayor.”

Maybe ask Horgan who seems to hang with these Surrey shooters.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/b-c-premier-john-horgan-surrey-mayor-linda-hepner-pose-in-photo-with-convicted-shooter-1.4281767

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YVR

“Eby is working, quietly and efficiently”

I will give you quiet but efficient would mean you are actually doing something. Eby has done nothing in his first 6 months. That is 15% of his term done and accomplished nothing.

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patriotz

Eby had been A-G since July 18, which is less than 5 months. But of course the facts are less important to your arguments than what sounds good.

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YVR

I think he started work long before that date including when he was in opposition. What happened to the legislation he kept proposing when he was in opposition? It should have been easily ready to go in September. He is either a liar or suddenly became incompetent once elected.

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Oracle

people like you get the Trumps elected. Disingenuous at best.

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paulb

New
150
Price Change
37
Sold
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TI:8976

http://www.clivestevepaul.com

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history

ZogHerod is writing the Bible of the Aquarius age. Flavius and Alexander are in on the gig, There will be gangbang at Oxford during the Christmas holidays to go over all the remaining details. Hope to see VCI there

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