Friday Free-for-all! January 25th 2018

It’s the end of the week and that means it’s time for another Friday free-for-all!

This is our standard news round up and open topic discussion thread for the weekend, here are a few recent links to kick off the chat:’

–A prediction
–Why people who can buy don’t
–Less income that property taxes
–FOMO drives condo sales
–Victoria 2nd least affordable in Canada
–Rate hikes warn on debt binge

So what are you seeing out there? Post your news links, thoughts and anecdotes in the comments below and have an excellent weekend!

Sort by: newest | oldest | most voted

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bullwhip29

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Click to flag and open «Comment Reporting» form. You can choose reporting category and send message to website administrator. Admins may or may not choose to remove the comment or block the author. And please don't worry, your report will be anonymous.

Richmond Centre mall prepares for monumental condo development
http://www.richmond-news.com/news/richmond-centre-mall-prepares-for-monumental-condo-development-1.23163543

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BubbleTea

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LISTEN: Wealthy Immigrants Buying Their Way Into Canada.
https://omny.fm/shows/the-shift-with-drex/wealthy-immigrants-buying-their-way-into-canada

Fraser valley boom | Vancouver Condo Info

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[…] is hot, but did you know that house prove gains in the Fraser valley are outpacing Vancouver? Southseacompany points out this CBC article with the […]

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kabloona

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“Illegal ride-hailing services busted in Richmond, B.C – Udi Kuaiche, RaccoonGo and Dingdang Carpool under surveillance since last fall”

By Maryse Zeidler, CBC News Posted: Jan 30, 2018 1:45 PM PT Last Updated: Jan 30, 2018 4:21 PM PT

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/illegal-ride-hailing-services-busted-in-richmond-b-c-1.4510893

About bloody time…..

“RaccoonGo”….????

😉

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kabloona

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Love the headline….

😉

Stocks slammed as fear grips Wall Street – Yahoo Finance

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/stocks-slammed-fear-grips-wall-street-202546977.html

“Fear is gripping Wall Street as stocks sell off. Plus—Warren, Jamie and Jeff—have these super CEOS figured out how to solve health care? And Apple’s week is getting a lot worse. We have the latest news hitting the stock. …”

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paulb

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New
196
Price Change
22
Sold
127
TI:7431

http://www.clivestevepaul.com

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southseacompany

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“Housing price increases in Fraser Valley outpace Vancouver”, CBC News

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/housing-prices-fraser-valley-1.4510428

“The Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation says demand for less expensive condominiums and apartments in North Delta, Surrey and Langley has inflated prices at a sharper rate than in Vancouver.”

“”Those municipalities have some of the most affordable units in the region, particularly for condos,” he (Eric Bond, a regional analyst with CMHC) said. “For first-time buyers, given the price increases we’ve seen in the rest of the region, often those units are what’s most interesting to them.””

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Ddd

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White flight.

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Shut It Down Already

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Hi Oracle!

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Oracle

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Moron. Not me.

Other people have opinions too.

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Oracle

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And it’s not white flight. It’s Indians from Surrey buying 2nd 3rd homes for kids for future.

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Yikes

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Anybody who’d buy a condo in North Delta or Surrey is a fool and they deserve what they get.

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southseacompany

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“CMHC housing outlook classifies Metro Vancouver as vulnerable to volatility”, Vancouver Sun

http://vancouversun.com/business/local-business/cmhc-housing-outlook-classifies-metro-vancouver-as-vulnerable-to-volatility

“Metro Vancouver’s real estate market remains classified as highly vulnerable to volatility at the start of 2018 due to an overheating in condo sales in some corners and overvaluation of prices that continue to defy local fundamentals, the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. said Tuesday.”

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southseacompany

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“Only thing colder than Toronto right now is its housing market”, Financial Post

http://business.financialpost.com/real-estate/once-hot-toronto-housing-hits-deep-freeze-as-lending-rules-bite

“Mid-winter is never a good time to sell a house in Toronto — this winter it’s terrible”

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Bear Vancouverite

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Another flip that flopped?

8091 Lucerne Road, Richmond

Originally listed $1.79M Jun 2017
Current Price: $999,000

2017 Assessed: $1,938,400

Last Sold 07 Jan 2016: $1,188,888

Seller will lose $189,888 plus fees and other costs if it sells at $999k

The previous sale price in 2014 was $735k so if prices go back to 2014 levels the seller will lose $453k. Ouch.

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Shut It Down Already

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I see that listing at $1.68m, but I don’t have MLS access.

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Bear Vancouverite

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Blog is filtering the URL, Search for MLS R2235462 on Google (results on rew.ca or estateblock)

But now that I think about it, the realtor could have put the wrong price in, some realtors have been putting higher prices in anticipation of Spring/Chinese New Year and I’ve seen realtors put wrong prices in before.

I’d say this would be a listing error before it was a “scam” or someone only willing to sell to Mainland Chinese, as I don’t believe in Oracle’s “they exchange money in China” theory.

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Shut It Down Already

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Why would you believe it? There’s not been a single documented example.

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Ddd

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Tax avoidance scheme. Like when you sell a vehicle on Craigslist and let the buyer fill in the value.

They probably will only deal with Chinese Realtors representing Chinese buyers because those ppl are in “the know”.

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Laibach

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Most likely some traditional Qiang Ethnic Dance (Lie-Lie” – ”Cheat-Cheat” – ”Fraud-Fraud”) that is known to few, a classic multicultural folklore in the midst of Canada.

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bullwhip29

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i bet they won’t even entertain outside offers or return calls. this has got “sketchy” written all over it

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Shut It Down Already

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Then call them?

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Laibach

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When you see who is in charge, it doesn’t only make you shit but you get a pretty good idea what is going on…

Primary Agent Karen Zhao PREC*
Primary Broker New Coast Realty

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Burt

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The real madness is that 2014 prices seems cheap now!

A SFH for $745,000!?

2 bedroom condos go for well over that now.

I’m keeping my fingers crossed. Condos stay strong, SFH dips in 2018.

Sell condo. Buy house.

Here is to hoping!

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Laibach

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There is no such correlation, condos plunge will be epic. Rather expect: Sell condo. Pay debt.

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Burt

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Not sure if you live in the real world, but condos are up 30% in 2017… what were houses up?

January stats are out…

Condos are up over 2%…

What did houses do?

My debt load is non factor. My mortgage is less than a year of earnings.

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See Saw

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Exactly. Single detached houses always set the market trends, too. AS IF condos would “stay strong”. How can some people be so effing dumb?

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DaMann

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Assessed at $1.9 million and now listed for $1 million? That can’t be right…

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See Saw

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Why not? Assessments are outdated as soon as they are published. You have obviously never lived through a housing bust before.

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DaMann

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50% off of a 6 month old assessment? No chance. Something fishy going on there. SFH are soft right now but not blood in the streets yet. Not even close!

and yes I remember all too well the bust of the 80’s…

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See Saw

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Well then you would remember how quickly the market crashed back them too.

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Lost...but not Leased

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Saw on CBC that CRA gives out$30K bonuses to its executives for reaching “targets”…
Wonder if that is weaponized to avoid HAM and instead go after working stiffs…..just think of how many bonuses could be paid out via HAM hunting.

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Yikes

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CRA needs a dedicated HAM hunting department that’s geared specifically for that, with appropriate quotas/rewards in place. The existing revenue model doesn’t fit HAM hunting.

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Burnabonian

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That is precisely how it works.

I am informed that the current system is a perfect disincentive to conduct potentially complex, multi-year forensic investigations that may involve subpoenas, law enforcement, and the courts. Nobody doing that will make their (don’t-call-it-a) quota.

But nailing a 9-to-5er to the wall for his childcare expenses is fast and easy and a reliable way to hit your targets.

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Lost...but not Leased

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Sigh…..that’s what I thought.

I noted a while back in the early 1980’s the CRA was going after parents’ childrens’ bank accounts..

Regardless..the quicker they wipe out the middle class the sooner they can make Canada into a Sino- Satellite colony.

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KickThemOut

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Look at this beautiful drop in Bitcoins…the start of death knell for VanRE?
https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/quote/BTC-CAD?p=BTC-CAD

Only possible explanation is that Chinese has stopped using it as a way to get their $$ out, since well, there is no other possible explanation for why it moves up so much last year, right?

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Lost...but not Leased

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What’s the difference between Bitcoin and RiverRock Casino….

Nothing…they are both Chinese Laundries!!!

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See Saw

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Odd, isn’t it that “other things” (like Bitcoin, etc.) can have a rise and fall, but NEVER Vancouver-area real estate, by cracky!

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Doomcouver

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Nope, Vancouver real estate only goes one direction. East-side crack shacks will be going for $20 million in the next decade.

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bullwhip29

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Seniors and families are Richmond’s new face of homelessness
http://www.richmond-news.com/community/seniors-and-families-are-richmond-s-new-face-of-homelessness-chimo-1.23158752

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Doomcouver

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The saddest part is massive housing speculation is making them homeless, and when the mania ends there will be a complete lack of government funds for many social services that low income families rely on. The collapse in property transfer tax, and falling assessment values will crush government budgets. Not to mention pension funds that have too much exposure to REITs and other investment vehicles dependent on real estate will be almost completely wiped out. This is why housing bubbles are so destructive; they price people out and make them overpay on the way up, and leave a barren economic crater when they end.

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patriotz

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” Not to mention pension funds that have too much exposure to REITs ”

I guess it’s time to remind the forum again that pension funds and REIT’s don’t buy SFH and condos (even outside Vancouver) because they don’t meet their investment criteria (i.e. prices are too high relative to rents). They invest for rental income not speculative gains.

PTT is forecasted to bring in $1.5 billion in 2017/8. That could well fall but it’s a small part of a $50 billion budget.

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Lost...but not Leased

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Good reverse engineering and retro analysis.

Even Gov’t can no longer deny RE is a ponzi scheme, but are caught like deer in headlights. There is no leadership, when SHTF only the strong will survive.

IMHO….NDP =canary in the mine. NDP had a chance to do something, and is failing…aka many have woken up to this sober reality.

Fasten your seatbelts….and chose between (i) Cover Your Ass or (ii) Kiss Your Ass Goodbye

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southseacompany

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“Fed will be forced to raise rates more rapidly than expected because of accelerating economy, survey says”, CNBC

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/01/30/fed-will-be-forced-to-raise-rates-more-rapidly-than-expected-cnbc-fed-survey.html

“The Fed may be forced to raise rates more rapidly than the market is anticipating due to accelerating economic conditions, CNBC Fed survey respondents say.”

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Hyper-mega-Bull

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Bear logic: “economy is booming, that must mean housing prices are going down!!!!”.

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Clockbike

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“Interest rates are rising, and thus the cost of servicing debt. With a decreased supply of credit, surely people can take on the same size of mortgage, surely!”

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Hyper-mega-Bull

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yes, that’s exactly right!

Case-Shiller index: U.S. home prices post 6.2% increase

https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/personalfinance/real-estate/2018/01/30/case-shiller-index-u-s-home-prices-post-6-2-increase/1078055001/

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Doomcouver

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Lowest prolonged interest rates in recorded history leads to largest recession in history? Seems possible… Widespread wealth destruction is incoming, prepare yourselves…

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southseacompany

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“Once-hot Toronto housing now has buyers ‘sitting on sidelines’ as lending rules bite”, BNN

https://www.bnn.ca/once-hot-toronto-housing-hits-deep-freeze-as-lending-rules-bite-1.982524

“While the bleak mid-winter is never the best time to sell a home in Canada, a string of open houses in the country’s largest city were chillingly empty on a recent Saturday afternoon. Tougher mortgage rules went into effect on Jan. 1 just as higher interest rates began to bite, and the market’s on edge, waiting to see if a downturn that began last year will accelerate under the added pressure.”

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Doomcouver

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Due to how long the bull market on housing has lasted, prices will be extremely sticky to the downside. Almost all home owners are assuming the market will continue it’s uptrend soon. Without a full blown interest rate shock low sales volumes will need to continue for a few years likely before some sellers get desperate enough to slash their prices.

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bullwhip29

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Nu Stream was doing real estate bus tours in west Richmond last weekend. Maybe not as busy as it once was, but this is an effective way to get buyers all jacked up especially when saving face and outbidding any and all competitors is the name of the game. Sold signs were removed Mon AM on a couple of the properties I usually drive by.

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bullwhip29

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edit: realtor signs not sold signs

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Doomcouver

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There’s a lot of mcmansions on my neighborhood that had for sale signs that got taken down when winter started. The capital controls in China are completely destroying the top end of the market.

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bullwhip29

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i was suggesting these homes were sold to someone on the “tour”. they usually cart 15-20 or so buyers around at a time to 6-10 properties where cocktails and appetizers are free flowing. realtors will even stage supercars and lineup other showings to coincide with arrival of tour bus to whip up the storm some more.

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Shut It Down Already

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Nothing says high-end real estate more than a group bus tour of Richmond.

Got any evidence at all that these tours actually happen?

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southseacompany

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“Global bond sell-off rattles markets”, Financial Times

https://www.ft.com/content/90d37b4e-0510-11e8-9650-9c0ad2d7c5b5

“The global bond market sell-off deepened on Monday, lifting the 10-year US Treasury yield above 2.7 per cent for the first time in nearly four years”

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southseacompany

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“Mortgage rates jump to highest in 4 years, an ominous sign for spring housing”, CNBC

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/01/29/mortgage-rates-highest-in-4-years-ominous-sign-for-spring-housing.html

“Mortgage rates jump to the highest point in 4 years, an ominous sign for spring housing Mortgage rates jump to the highest point in 4 years, an ominous sign for spring housing ”

“A huge sell-off in the bond market is about to make buying a home more expensive. Mortgage rates, which loosely follow the yield on the 10-year Treasury, have been rising for the past few weeks, but are seeing their biggest move higher Monday.”

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Hyper-mega-Bull

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Richmond artist Kris Wu first Chinese Super Bowl performer

http://richmond-news.com/news/richmond-artist-kris-wu-first-chinese-super-bowl-performer-1.23158222

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bullwhip29

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this is real reach for the NFL in an effort to grab some quick cash. imho american football in China won’t fly until there is a recognizable star playing in a high profile position on one the marquee teams.

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Best place on meth

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B.C. real-estate sales to foreign buyers relatively low and stable since tax introduced in 2016

https://www.straight.com/news/1025701/bc-real-estate-sales-foreign-buyers-relatively-low-and-stable-tax-introduced-2016

The tax is working.

Now double it, close all loopholes and make it province wide.

GO WEAVER! GO PR!

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Burnabonian

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Someone set the prices high (it literally does not matter who) and locals spend years flipping houses to each other while screaming “furrrinnerrsss!!!”

Well, where are your mythical furriners?

Not buying houses in meaningful quantities, that’s where they aren’t.

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Best place on meth

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Vancouver developer gives local buyers first dibs on homes

https://www.bcbusiness.ca/Vancouver-developer-gives-local-buyers-first-dibs-on-homes

“Imani Development Inc. is using a Locals First program conceived by real estate sales, marketing and research firm Key Marketing for a 126-unit condo project in East Vancouver. So far, 88 homes at The Windsor have been sold, 87 of them to buyers from Metro Vancouver.”

Cam Good is back. Yellow helicopter guy.

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Best place on meth

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Vancouver real estate market 130 years ago.

http://vancouversun.com/news/local-news/this-week-in-history-1889-a-pioneer-real-estate-magnate-flourishes-in-the-new-city-of-vancouver

Tactics look similar, right down to the “why are you wasting money renting?” angle.

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Doomcouver

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$1000 for 8 acres within “city limits” in 1889. That’s equivalent to about $25k in 2018. Crazy… though the average income was probably like $0.50 a day or something back in 1889….

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KickThemOut

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If you love renting so much then why do you hate the hand that feeds you so much? Or really deep down, you want to own without having to work & sacrifice because you deserve it? Just for having been born in Vancouver?

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Best place on meth

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Housing speculation a big debate topic — unless you want to lead the B.C. Liberals
It may be biggest issue in province, but it’s rarely brought up by those looking to replace Christy Clark

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/bc-liberal-race-housing-affordability-1.4506150

“The housing affordability challenge is the number one concern today,” said Todd Stone. “This is the challenge, I think, of our time, to make sure our kids can get into the market.”

And this was the sanest of the pathetic clowns on that stage.

Before rolling Sullivan over a cliff, the other 5 should be loaded on top of him. Watt can keep screeching “YOU KNOW WHAT?” as they go over and straight down.

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Just me

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A mental image to behold!

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Best place on meth

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“How over 46,000 wealthy immigrants took a back door into Vancouver and Toronto’s housing markets

https://globalnews.ca/news/3886743/quebec-immigrant-investor-program-vancouver/

That back door is the Quebec Immigrant Investor Program (QIIP).”

Established in 1986, it offers permanent residency to international business people with net assets of at least $1.6 million, who make an interest-free investment of $800,000 in la belle province — and the government returns their money after five years.

“Applicants are supposed to settle in Quebec.

But data shows just how many of them have ended up elsewhere”

This is very surprising, from what I’ve heard about mainland chinese they’re usually quite honest and keep their word when making a promise.

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Just me

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Gordon said there’s “no doubt” that programs like investor immigration help to “decouple the housing market from the labour market and make housing more unaffordable.”

He said the entry of such capital creates a “ripple effect” that begins in wealthy neighbourhoods.

“What happens is that the money arrives in the high-end neighbourhoods, which means that people who would have previously bought in those neighbourhoods are no longer able to,” Gordon said.

Then, they “bring their greater purchasing powers to second-tier neighbourhoods, and push the people who would have previously bought there out further, and so on and so forth.”

“Whatever the initial intentions, there is no doubt that these programs have facilitated the flow of wealth into real estate in Toronto and Vancouver, and that this has played a big role in the relative unaffordability of those two cities historically,” he added.

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See Saw

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Oh, Him. He won’t give up on that one-trick pony of his.

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Just me

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UBC geographer Daniel Hiebert, who has focused on international migration, said investor immigration is likely now dominated by applicants from Mainland China. The federal report also showed that investor immigrants are heavily invested in real estate. UBC economist Giovanni Gallipoli did a “back-of-the-envelope” calculation to estimate the wealth that investor immigration has brought to B.C. He took the average price of a property in the area covered by the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) (about $990,000 in 2017) and average monthly sales in the same year (about 3,000). The calculation yielded about $36 billion spent on Metro Vancouver real estate in a single year. Then he took the number of investor immigrant households. Gallipoli assumed each of them spent $1.6 million on real estate, which was the benchmark price of a single-family home in Greater Vancouver in December… Read more »

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Shut It Down Already

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So if every arrival via Quebec in the last 31 years bought a house at 2017 prices all at the same time then we’d have a number which sounds impressive but is, in fact, nonsensical?

I’m not surprised you lapped it up.

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Just me

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You forgot the math cuts both ways. The size of market overall would be lower in previous year. So, if you use 1995 prices you have to scale down also the overall value of all transactions in the city. You might get an even larger impact!

As the article states, the UBC economist has been very (maybe too) conservative in his calculation of the impact of foreign money.

Think before spouting nonsense.

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Shut It Down Already

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Dumbass, the sales weren’t all in the same year. Numbers are wasted on you.

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Just me

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As the article reports, even spreading the sales over a large horizon implies a significant shock to the market.
It is as if almost a full year of RE supply had been removed from the market: that is large by any metrics.
Try to do that in any other market and see what happens to prices.

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Shut It Down Already

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How many years of supply were removed by “locals” over the past 30 years then? Thats right – almost 30. Imagine the shock!

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Just me

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Locals are the ones who live and work here. They do get to have most of the housing (or at least they should). But if you remove a full year of supply from the market, all those locals will pay way more.
It is as if nobody could buy a home for almost a year, because there is no stock. Guess what happens when people start anticipating that.
The article also makes it clear that this is an underestimate: many mainland Chinese may enter through different programs. Many households also bring way more than 1.6 million in investment money.

The UBC guys are likely underestimating the phenomenon, and they hint at it.

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Shut It Down Already

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FFS it’s not a year of supply removed in a single year. It’s equivalent to 67% (two thirds) of Vancouver’s market spread over 31 years. You really can’t see the apples-to-oranges comparison? It’s nowhere near “as if nobody could buy for a year”. You probably believe there are people paying 107% of their net income on housing, too.

And guess what? Most of these people are now as Canadian as you are. Deal with it.

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See Saw

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“Just me” is just a paid RE industry shill, SIDA. Best to ignore him as he spews out junk all day long from that computer of his.

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Just me

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(1) I am definitely the opposite of a paid RE shill. You just proved yourself an idiot.
(2) I am not going to reply to SIDA about this any longer. There is now a long line of UBC/SFU professors showing (with numbers) that foreign millionaires (mostly from mainland China) have significantly pushed up the price of our RE market. Yet SIDA is arrogant enough to dismiss all that and claim foreign money does not matter. I cannot argue with someone who claims that earth is flat.

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Shut It Down Already

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Have some class for once and admit your mistake.

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Name

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An RE industry shill accusing someone else of being a “paid RE industry shill”. Hilarious.

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bestplaceonearth

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is this your own post too? or copy and paste? just asking!

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Just me

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Ley derived an even larger figure when he combined entrepreneur and investor immigrants — two streams that once formed part of Canada’s Business Immigration Program (BIP).

First, he took the smallest annual record of average total funds for business immigrants between 1994 and 1997 — $2.22 million for investor immigrants, $1.2 million for entrepreneurs.

Then, he multiplied those figures by the number of principal applicants who landed in B.C. from 1988 to 1997.

From that, he estimated that $35 to $40 billion of foreign capital could have landed in B.C. in this period, with as much as $27 billion hitting Vancouver alone — and that didn’t capture the money that business immigrants held overseas.

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Just me

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Research by UBC geographer David Ley shows how conservative Gallipoli’s estimates of investor immigrants’ capital were.

In his book Millionaire Migrants, Ley analyzed “total funds” that investor immigrants disclosed to prove their financial capital in the 1990s.

Ley looked at total funds held by investor immigrants from 1994 to 1997 and found that they “fluctuated between a mean level of $2.47 million in 1994 and $2.22 million in 1996” — and those numbers didn’t necessarily represent their entire net worth.

Those numbers loom large when compared against the average net worth of British Columbians and Vancouverites around that time.

Average net worth in B.C. in 1999 was $395,400, while in Vancouver it was $409,600, according to the Survey of Financial Security (SFS).

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Just me

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As permanent residents, no foreign buyers taxes can touch these people. Nor can any measure to curb foreign demand in Canadian real estate.

The numbers didn’t surprise Josh Gordon, an SFU public policy professor who has focused on Toronto and Vancouver’s housing markets.

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patriotz

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“Nor can any measure to curb foreign demand in Canadian real estate.”

Wrong, the proposed 2% tax on homeowners who don’t pay appropriate income tax would apply to them and to any other permanent resident.

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Just me

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Gordon described the QIIP as a “farce,” saying that Quebec benefits from the program while other jurisdictions incur the costs of hosting wealthy immigrants in their provinces.

“The Quebec government receives an interest-free loan, while the house price pressures and the social service costs of supporting investor immigrant families, who have historically paid low amounts of tax, falls on British Columbia and Ontario,” he said.

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bestplaceonearth

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is this post your own write-up, or someone else, and you copy-paste?

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Just me

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The data, which includes both primary and secondary applicants, showed that 57,935 investor immigrants who came through Quebec were living in Canada as of 2016.

Nearly 28,000 of them (48.3 per cent) were living in B.C., while almost 22,000 (37.9 per cent) were in Ontario.

Only 6,050 investor immigrants who came through Quebec (10.4 per cent) were living in the province at that time.

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bestplaceonearth

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Are these numbers your own research? or you stole it somewhere?

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Best place on meth

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Robertson is out, here are five reasons Mayor Corrigan shouldn’t seek re-election as well

https://thinkpol.ca/2018/01/28/opinion-robertson-five-reasons-mayor-corrigan-shouldnt-seek-re-election-well/

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Corrigan will get re-elected and he will stick around until he’s carried out on stretcher.

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Lost....but not leased

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#1 is there should be term limits on ALL politicians. In BC..at the Local Gov’t level..we are stuck with them for 4 years.

Richmond Councillors get over $60,000 year…for what should be a part time job. Re election is based on name recognition vs merit.

#2 is BAN lawyers from elected office….they tend to bully their colleagues and major conflict of interest in democratic governance model.

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Lost....but not leased

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I think the ICBC issue may have touched a MAJOR raw nerve .
I was reading comments on the article and one party claimed that the LOWEST paid ICBC employee gets $60,000 year.

F*ck that…time to clean house…waaaayyy too mnay snouts in the taxpayer trough…

EBY and Horgan…GET RID OF ICBC asap !!!!