How sharp a correction?

Most economist are predicting a slower housing market in Canada, but how slow is too slow?

Southseacompany points to this article wondering how ‘sharp’ any correction would be:

Last week, the Bank of Canada hiked the overnight rate to 1.25 per cent, causing the credit union to note that Canadians have some of the highest levels of household debt in the world.

The interest rate hike — when combined with a new mortgage stress test for uninsured borrowers that came into effect on January 1 — could severely limit the purchasing power of many would-be home buyers, cooling the market dramatically.

But while most economists agree that these factors will dampen the market in the first few months of 2018, many believe it will eventually adjust to the changes. What’s more, some argue that Canadians debt levels aren’t as worrying as they might first appear.

“Household debt in Canada is seen by some as unsustainably high and a source of vulnerability for the financial system,” write National Bank chief economist Stéfane Marion and senior economist Matthieu Arseneau in a recent report. “But the international evidence suggests that Canadian household leverage and home prices are not abnormal.”

Read the full article here.

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Just me
Guest
Just me

http://vancouversun.com/news/local-news/river-rock-vip-host-investigated-for-alleged-anti-money-laundering-violations

Gao’s professional profile says she has worked at River Rock since 2010, and before that she worked in Shenzhen, a city in China’s Guangdong province.

Her profile says “under the direction of the executive director” as director for VIP guest relations she worked “closely with all key department heads.” Gao also provided “strategic directions and oversight of guest acquisition, development and retention … (and oversaw) daily operations of all high-limit areas on property.”

In addition to directing other VIP hosts, Gao was responsible for overseeing table play in River Rock’s exclusive “VIP Prive Program.” According to the Richmond casino’s website, in this high-limit baccarat betting area “highly qualified” hosts ensure VIPs “are treated to dedicated service around the clock.”

Just me
Guest
Just me

Postmedia confirmed Gao’s case with the B.C. government and asked B.C. Lottery Corp. to comment on the allegations. BCLC would not comment, and referred the questions to the Ministry of Attorney-General.

In response to questions about Gao’s case, the Ministry of Attorney-General confirmed that in early November the enforcement branch began investigating an employee at River Rock Casino, “after it was alleged the employee acted in direct violation of B.C. Lottery Corp. and Fintrac directives about third-party cash buy-ins.”

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29
Gao will undoubtedly be rewarded handsomely for taking the so called heat for this (and keeping her lips sealed), which will will amount to nothing more than a slap on the wrist after all is said and done. So, big deal, she won’t be involved in the money laundering game anymore, we’ll at least in this capacity and at that particular venue. Following this, the casino bosses will make statement that all is well again, the rogue employee has been dealt with and life can go on business as usual. weren’t the authorities supposed to come down like a ton of bricks on the realtors and all their shenanigans not too long ago? and what happened? co’s like New Coast simply split themselves up, changed the letterhead and co logos and moved forward. did anything happen to any of the… Read more »
Just me
Guest
Just me

I actually think the hammer is coming down on these people. they had a free rein under the BC Libs. In fact, I think that political climate actually encouraged them to launder money using the “Vancouver Model”.
At the very least, this positive reinforcement has come to an end.

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

the Michael Ching Mo Yeungs and Miaofei Pans of the world are proof that things are moving forward business as usual. Richmond has been completely and totally hijacked for all intents and purposes.
new buildings, illegal mega mansions, questionable agricultural projects, unregulated financial institutions and all sorts of other sketchy activity is conducted in plain sight in what is soon to become the Macao of N. America. perhaps the MSM spin will say otherwise and people will let their guard down during this “quiet” period only to find out a few years down the road that even more folks who play by the rules got left behind.

Just me
Guest
Just me

Gao’s profile says she earned a business degree from the University of Ottawa before completing the real estate course at the University of B.C.’s Sauder School of Business. As a student in Ottawa, Gao was involved in the China Canada Business Council, and while at UBC she was involved in the Real Estate Council of B.C., and the B.C. Real Estate Board, according to her profile.

Boombust
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Boombust

And?

She’s not “guilty” of anything, you moron. Let the courts figure it out.

Just me
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Just me

How do you know she is not guilty of anything? The facts reported by the Attorney-general office suggest otherwise.
Why do you keep defending illegal behavior?

Boombust
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Boombust

She hasn’t even been “charged”with anything. So, quit trying to put the cart before the horse.

Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

Presumption of innocence, dumbass. Read the Charter.

Best place on meth
Member
Best place on meth

The Charter never took into account the behaviour of the vermin from Shenzhen, the counterfeiting, pirating and intellectual theft capital of the world – home of the worst people on the planet.

Canadians had no idea this kind of shit existed back then, we’re in uncharted territory.

Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

You sound just like a Nazi.

Laibach
Member
Laibach

Local society is deeply in a state where only brave, uncompromised and determined chief police officer (Eliot Ness sort of) and Attorney General must get at the helm of Special Force Unit – Elite Squad with unlimited powers to confront and eventually eliminate Foreign Kartel (octopus) which is taking over BC, utilizing enormous amounts of dirty money and numerous well-trained resources on the ground, while quickly progressing towards their criminal objectives. Criminals already succeeded to strategically infiltrate into economic, educational, cultural and political structures while successfully pushing local people away and destroying values and laws that once defined the western life, being and culture.

-bubbly-
Member
-bubbly-

How sharp a correction will make the wait worth it?

Anybody willing to address my comments from here: http://vancouvercondo.info/2018/01/the-architect-and-the-economics-professor.html#comment-317676 ?

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

HAM is still flowing into this market albeit at a slower pace or thru different channels. the higher rates and new mortgage rules will only put a bigger wedge between the have’s and have not’s in this town. i would say the vast majority of locals would not be positioned to take advantage of any meaningful price drops of say 20, 30 or even 40% in the event they were to occur.

Just me
Guest
Just me

Chinese mainlanders also leverage through credit. Although I agree that we should introduce legislation to restrict their ability to do so.

bullwhip29
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bullwhip29

perhaps, but if the SHTF, these folks will simply skip town (after having milked the system dry) and leave you, me and other taxpayers with the privilege of picking up the tab. once they are gone, authorities here have no chance of finding them since many of them never used their real names and info in the first place. #HeadsIWinTailsYouLose

Just me
Guest
Just me

As long as they leave, Vancouver will be a better place for years to come. These people have nothing to contribute to society, they take advantage of loopholes and Canadians’ credulity.
Only RE-related professions and land owners gain from their presence. Society at large loses.

Laibach
Member
Laibach

What Joel describes is an attack by invading swarms of locusts. The assault almost seems coordinated: “What the chewing locust left, the swarming locust has eaten; what the swarming locust left, the crawling locust has eaten; and what the crawling locust left, the consuming locust has eaten” (verse 4). As he goes on to relate, the devastation has been so complete that nothing is forthcoming: There will be no new wine, no figs, no wheat, no barley, no pomegranates, no dates, no apples—not even anything that could be used to make an offering to God (verse 9).

https://www.bibletools.org/index.cfm/fuseaction/Topical.show/RTD/cgg/ID/20607/De-vastation-Locust-Plague.htm

Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

Fuck off, racist weirdo.

Laibach
Member
Laibach

What on Earth this altruistic metaphor has to do with racism? You are definitely badly damaged, total nutfuck.

Best place on meth
Member
Best place on meth

You know what else is racist?

Calling Americans fat.

Or ignorant.

Or war-mongering.

Just kidding.

Boombust
Guest
Boombust

You must get a LOT of money to sit on your computer everyday working as an industry shill and playing up the “foreign buyers’ myth so that locals will be spooked into buying a crappy condo somewhere.

-bubbly-
Member
-bubbly-

If you have been waiting for a decade or longer, like some regulars on this blog did, then even 50% or 60% drop will barely bring prices back to where they were back then, when the market was already quite bubbly. And we are all a decade older now…

xhistory
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xhistory

Ten Years After, a band formed in 1966 in honour of the success of Elvis Presley mational appearance 1956.

Boombust
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Boombust

So? Ever think about the younger ones behind you? Or, is it all about you?

-bubbly-
Member
-bubbly-

What are you talking about? People have been waiting to buy because of the younger generation? Huh?

The actual point is that many from the younger generation have been waiting for a very long time and they are not young anymore. They literally wasted all these years stressing out and obsessing about the market, putting off important life milestones. Think about that!

Boombust
Guest
Boombust

Well, if they’re THAT dumb; they should have gotten on with their lives in other ways. There IS more to “life” than owning a house in Metro Vancouver.

-bubbly-
Member
-bubbly-

Sure, there is more to life than that. And yet, owning a house in Metro Vancouver is important enough to many people that they keep coming to this blog for over a decade.

Time to go
Guest
Time to go

You’re a troll or an idiot and more than likely, both. Not everyone who didn’t buy in the time frame you mentioned “waited” to buy. Some of the regulars on the blog watched and enjoyed the ride, some bought, some moved and some traveled, invested money elsewhere and generally enjoyed their life. This market was crazy and is crazy, doesn’t mean your only choices to get ahead were to wait.

-bubbly-
Member
-bubbly-

In my original comment, I actually asked the old timers (BPOM, patriotz, bullwhip etc.) if they had bought. I also explicitly said that moving somewhere else is an option.
But I know for a fact that some people have not done either. They just waited. And people on the bubble blogs have been circle jerking for over a decade. How sad is that?

BTW, not everyone who you disagree with is a toll or idiot. Maybe you should look in the mirror.

Strata Hacker
Guest
Strata Hacker

Boombust is most definitely a troll and an idiot. He puts himself forward as some expert on helocs and yet he doesn’t know that you can fold your heloc balance into your mortgage on renewal at a much lower rate. Apparently he doesn’t understand how piddling the extra monthly payment on 70k heloc actually is in a mortgage at today’s rates. What a loser. Thinks he’s winning.

Specuskeptic
Member

Renting is cheaper than buying. The end. You’ve assumed “milestones” where there are none. Now get back to that empty open house. Potential customers will be by any minute LOL.

-bubbly-
Member
-bubbly-

“Renting is cheaper than buying. The end.”
Another mantra that has been repeated for over a decade. How has that worked out for you?

Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

Not very well for most here considering they couldn’t do a buy/rent calculation correctly if their life depended on it. I mean, why not just keep adding on imaginary “special assessments” until the numbers work, overestimate insurance premiums, and consider mortgage principal as a cost? Oh, and let’s pretend that rents never go up by more than 4%, too, because everybody always lives in just the once place forever, right?

Boombust
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Boombust

BS. Sales are in the ditch, inventories are rising and prices are dropping. Get real. The boom is imploding.

Whistler or Bust?
Guest
Whistler or Bust?

I see no evidence of this at all. Please share it if you do!

Just me
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Just me

Ditto. Talk is cheap. Post info and share with the rest of us.
Nothing would make me happier than a full-blown crash in RE valuations. Make me happy or shut up.

Boombust
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Boombust

You’re full of shit.

Boombust
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Boombust

Don’t be so stupid. They post the daily stats on here. You can also visit Steve Saretsky’s site and many others and go to My Realty Check and look at all the drops in asking prices. THEN, you can go to Zolo and compare how much further your buying dollar goes now compared to Spring, 2016.

Then again, if you rely on Global for all your RE News, it’s no wonder you think everything is just “fine”.

Just me
Guest
Just me

Post links. Curious about the Zolo claim: can you substantiate with numbers?

Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

There are always price drops and generally they will always outnumber price increases. How many more times does this need explaining to you?

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29
yes, the market is completely dead. inventories are still 20-30% below even last years levels. my thesis all along was that… – HAM played a much greater part in pushing prices up than many others want to claim publicly (or somehow believe) – all these ghost immigrants and overseas investors will not (and do not need to) liquidate for the most part meaning we will not witness an explosion in new listings – to sidestep mayor moonbeams initiatives, there are 100s of thousands of foreign students waiting in the pipeline to rent whatever becomes available on a longterm basis; fence sitters and sideliners waiting to “buy the dip” still have to live somewhere in the meantime and will still have to pay top dollar while they wait – when the screws tighten, the riff raff trying to get into the… Read more »
Best place on meth
Member
Best place on meth

Vancouver is going to become much worse than Mexico.

Mexico doesn’t have a million fucking locusts from the mainland infesting their country.

xhistory
Guest
xhistory

We are in our automobiles, parked down by the river. See you for coffee at the usual place. Let’s get together and talk philosophy this evening.

-bubbly-
Member
-bubbly-

Huh?

Boombust
Guest
Boombust

Very sharp. People will be as shocked by how much prices will fall just as they were when prices rose to ridiculous levels.

-bubbly-
Member
-bubbly-

To get to prices from 10 years ago (when the bubble was already very big), you would need 50+% correction.

To get back to prices of 2005 (when the bubble blogs started popping up), you would need 75+% correction.

It should be obvious that the economy would be devastated and many people who have been waiting wouldn’t be able to buy.

Just me
Guest
Just me
Short-term pain, long-term gain. Cannot make an omelette without breaking eggs. it should be obvious to everyone that the current situation is: (1) unsustainable, financially, for most newcomers to Vancouver; (2) not good for the economy, except those working in RE and services for millionaires; (3) unfair, as it is based on laundering of illegal funds that should be stopped as a matter of legality and rule of law. If prices are artificially preserved at the current levels, the costs to society going forward would be much larger. We need significantly lower house prices (yes, 50% is not crazy). We need to put a stop to the gigantic money laundering taking place: it is a blatant violation of everything Canada should stand for. And it is ruining the city for everyone but the very richest. If people buy into this… Read more »
-bubbly-
Member
-bubbly-

You are missing the point. 50% correction will just get us to bubble levels from a few years ago. Looking at the numbers, it would be ~ 5 years ago for houses and 3 to 11 years ago for apartments and townhomes (they were stagnating for a long time).

Many people have been waiting longer than that. Have they been waiting to be able to finally buy for prices that made them wait in the first place? Was it worth it?

Read my original comments that I linked above.

Just me
Guest
Just me

Again, I must ask: what is your suggestion in January 2018? Ignore the discussion on this blog, take out a massive mortgage and buy asap?
I am not saying this is not going to work out, I am just asking: in life, shall we base our decisions on reason or should we just gamble?
Gamblers have won so far. I will concede that. But they are still gamblers.
The big problem, in my view, is that all levels of government in the recent past have sided with the gamblers, not with the savers. This has to end: our election of the NDP in power is a clear sign that people are fed up in Metro Vancouver.

-bubbly-
Member
-bubbly-

I already answered this question with my own point of view: http://vancouvercondo.info/2018/01/how-sharp-a-correction.html#comment-317768
The decision is usually based on more than just a look at the numbers.

Strata Hacker
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Strata Hacker

Garth and his jr. groupies are really bad at math I noticed.

Boombust
Guest
Boombust

It only takes a 50% correction to wipe out a 100% gain. We’re well on our way.

-bubbly-
Member
-bubbly-

You are really dense 🙂
50% correction will only get us to older bubble levels. Don’t you get it? You can wait for a return to “sane” prices forever. It may never happen.

Boombust
Guest
Boombust

What on earth makes you think the market won’t overshoot on the downside? It is certainly not unheard of in a bubble this size. I fully expect at LEAST -50% and 70% off is not “unreasonable” to expect.

“The bigger they are, the harder they fall”.

-bubbly-
Member
-bubbly-

What on earth makes you so sure that prices will overshoot? The problem is that people have been equally sure ten years ago.

“The bigger they are, the harder they fall”. – this has been the mantra here for over a decade. What did that bring you?

Question for you: Did you buy in the past ten years? Or did you move to a more affordable location?

Boombust
Guest
Boombust

You are a perfect example of recency bias. Your condo has gone up in value and you’re deluded into thinking it will stay that way.

-bubbly-
Member
-bubbly-

You are making stuff up. I never said anything about the future direction of prices, except that they may or may not crash in the next N years.

You, on the other hand, have been confidently and loudly wrong for a decade.

Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

Another example of recency bias is expecting a repeat of 2008-2009 in both real estate and stocks.

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

many owners sitting on a 100% gain or more likely increased exposure to RE mkt or tapped heloc for other reasons

boomers who held over the last 20-30 years and did nothing else would have to make significant adjustments to retirement plan if such a drop were to occur.

for many others, the windfall gains can’t really be accessed unless property is sold and owner either moves far away OR materially downgrades their residence

it only takes as little as a 5% correction to wipe out DP’s of recent buyers

-bubbly-
Member
-bubbly-

Sure.

I am asking this (the whole point of my original comments) – Was the wait worth it? Many have been circle jerking on bubble blogs for 5, 10 or more years. If a correction happens (a big if) and if the correction is big enough for them to buy (even bigger IF), then getting there would take another few years.

How long a wait is too much? We don’t live forever.

xhistory
Guest
xhistory

The journey was well worth the price, because it was not Financed by a house.

-bubbly-
Member
-bubbly-

What does that mean?

xhistory
Guest
xhistory

Imagine you are living in the year 1966, looking back at 1956.

Imagine sitting in a house you hate because it didnt provide you with the memories you planned.

Something is happening to houses, they are becoming electrified. The music moves you in ways never before sensed.

-bubbly-
Member
-bubbly-

Meaningless gibberish.

xhistory
Guest
xhistory

Now go forward ten years, it’s 1976, we dont see Elvis much anymore, another year, and he’s dead

Specuskeptic
Member

Overpaying for a domicile sure makes it feel like forever… Thanks landlord for subsidising me. My TFSAs are packed tight. Had I bought after selling my condo, they wouldn’t be.

Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

The even bigger IF is whether they’d even time the bottom correctly. I suspect they would not. They’d be taking about “dead cat bounces” again for at least another decade.

Strata Hacker
Guest
Strata Hacker

Boombust = perpetually wrong Garth jr.

Hey mom I wanna be Garth Turner when I grow up.

What a loser. Yuk!

Bear Vancouverite
Member
Bear Vancouverite
bubbly – many of the people are you familiar with are gone, some have bought, some have moved away. patriotz bought several years ago at a good rent to own ratio BPOM still waiting bullwhip29 still waiting Ulsterman given up I’m the same age range as Ulsterman and both of us feel the wait was a waste, but there’s nothing that can be done about that. The answer you are looking for is an admission that maybe the “bubbly” prices in 2005 weren’t so bubbly, and that many regret “waiting”. Ulsterman and myself have already expressed this before. Regretting making a bad call isn’t the same as saying the market today is rational. I’m of the opinion, and I think some other bears believe this as well, that a 50% crash is a pipe dream. It’d be nice but I’m… Read more »
-bubbly-
Member
-bubbly-
THANK YOU! Thank you for your honesty and for actually answering my questions. I myself have bought a few years ago. I regret having waited for so long, spending so much time in bear echo chambers, and being smug about staying out of the market while “fools” were buying. Eventually I reached a breaking point – I felt that I either have to move or buy or accept that I will never own. I decided to risk it and buy. I bought a condo and knowing that the condo prices have been stagnant for a few years, I did not expect them to go any higher. Actually, being a long time bear, I fully expected the market to crash right after I signed the mortgage papers. Instead, the price has doubled since then… I think that buying, moving somewhere else… Read more »
Just me
Guest
Just me

Just to cut to the point: is your opinion that people who can get into the market should do so at current valuations?
It all boils down to this: is it wise to buy RE in Vancouver in January 2018? I will leave this as an open question.

-bubbly-
Member
-bubbly-
To be honest, if I hadn’t have bought a few years ago, I am not sure if I would be buying now. The numbers are 2 times crazier than back then. But it’s not all about the numbers. We are not getting younger. So I would feel pressure to do something (buy or move). When I was buying a few years ago, I was prepared for the possibility of market crash and being temporarily underwater with my mortgage. The possibility is always there, but the truth is that nobody knows. Right now, looking at Paul’s numbers, it doesn’t look like the market is crashing. Having said that, I find it astonishing that the same people who have been talking about the imminent crash 10 years ago are still doing it today. Their assuredness and smugness is mind-boggling. It’s not that… Read more »
Just me
Guest
Just me
“. But being loudly and confidently wrong or “correct but too early” (which is the same as wrong) for such a long time gets old eventually. Being in an echo chamber for such a long time is not healthy.” As I said many times, I am neither loud nor confident. Obviously, people who bought 10 years ago (or even five years ago) are in the money. However what we do on this blog is discussing the factors driving the market. In 2010 it is clear that central banks did the unthinkable and made an enormous transfer of wealth to homeowners by reducing interest rates to zero. When the market started tanking under its own weight in 2012, money flows from Asia picked up in dramatic fashion. Whether you like to admit it or not, a set of distinct and unique… Read more »
-bubbly-
Member
-bubbly-

Fair enough, maybe you are not loud and confident but some others are and have been for a long time.

I am aware of the what has been done to prop up the financial systems around the world. I am just as angry as you. But I also realize that we need to deal with the world as it is, not as it should be. Failing to do so is a sure way to lose your mind.

Just me
Guest
Just me

Again, nobody is losing their mind. if anything, most contributors to this blog are the most clear-minded people when it comes to the housing market. The see what is happening through and through. Both with regards to cheap credit and to the influence of Chinese money.
The people who made a lot of money are those who ignorantly pounced into the RE madness of Vancouver. They have won out of sheer ignorance of the risks they were taking.
The media are only now catching up to some of the things we have been discussed for years. And when they dig for evidence, they find we were right. Of course, markets can stay irrational for a long time. Timing it is impossible.

-bubbly-
Member
-bubbly-

This blog has been wrong since June 2006. Yet, somehow, it’s everybody else who is “ignorant” 🙂

I have been one of the “clear-minded” (read: wrong) people on this blog for a long time, until I realized that there is no point fighting reality with shoulda coulda woulda.

Just me
Guest
Just me

If you ask people who bought 5 years ago why they did it, the answer is: because prices always go up? if you ask them why they have no clue. Ignorance can be bliss sometimes. But it is still ignorance.

And yes, they did not deserve to make money out of their ignorance. But our central banks, elected officials and foreign money conjured to make them rich. If you disagree with this analysis, bring facts and not opinions.

-bubbly-
Member
-bubbly-

That’s what you think. It makes you feel better about not buying when all those “fools” did.

Just me
Guest
Just me

For the nth time: the gamblers were rescued by the government in 2010.they gambled and they won.
Price to rent were too high then. They are utterly crazy now.

Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

Its not “ignorant” to be able to do a rent vs buy calculation correctly. Quite the opposite. But most of the bears here seemed incapable, unfortunately.

patriotz
Member

“the same people who have been talking about the imminent crash 10 years ago are still doing it today”

Nobody was talking about an “imminent crash” 10 years ago because at that time a crash had already been in progress for over 6 months.

-bubbly-
Member
-bubbly-

This is just funny. There was a small correction between late 2008 and first half of 2009. The denial is unbelievable.

Just me
Guest
Just me

Exactly the point we have made many times: central banks bailed out home buyers and fanned the flames of the housing market to stimulate the economy. Can they keep doing this forever?

Strata Hacker
Guest
Strata Hacker

Yes forever. The monetary base has blown up so much that worthless garbage like bitcoin is valued wildly. At least you can live in a house. It’s never going down to where value used to be. Get over it. Trillions are the new millions.

MarKoz
Member
It was not a small correction. Sales “fell off a cliff”. It seems small now, because it did not last long and prices bounced back. The reason they did so, is that the Federal government cratered interest rates, brought in zero down 40 year mortgages, and doubled the amount CMHC could insure. If the financial crash had not infected the whole world, Ottawa would not have made these changes just to save Vancouver. The crash was staved off as the decline in prices as embraced by cheap money and incredibly long amortizations. We had offshore money coming in back then, but local buyers picked the market up off its hands and knees and pushed it back into the game. Successive moves to tap on the brakes were applied as the market overheated, even in such unexpected locales as Saskatchewan. Then… Read more »
-bubbly-
Member
-bubbly-

It *was* a small correction. 10% is not a crash.

40-year mortgages ended in October 2008. Same with zero-down.

From a practical point of view, it doesn’t matter that the government backstopped the market. It doesn’t matter that it was “unjust”. All that matters is the reality that prices have not crashed and kept going up for years.

Just me
Guest
Just me

Again, if the government had not picked winners the story would have been different. They did not want to allow any short term pain.
Of course it is important to explain how this happened. Gamblers will gamble. The problem is that the government bails them out. We need to change that.

Strata Hacker
Guest
Strata Hacker

Whatever. Does it make you feel better by pretending you were right?

patriotz
Member

My mistake, 10 years ago (Jan 2008) the crash was indeed imminent, as it started in May 2008.

-bubbly-
Member
-bubbly-

🙂 If you call that a crash, then I don’t think that anybody needs to worry.

HPI Jan 2008: $555,400

HPI Jan 2009: $501,100

HPI Jan 2010: $565,700

MarKoz
Member

Realtor HPI. I remember people were panicked back then. I saw developers abandoning raw land at huge losses and big real estate marketers helping developers dump their condos.

Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

Exactly. And those things will happen again. Any discussion of an ongoing correction is pointless until you see the return of the likes of MacBulk and CondoMob. Wake me up when MOI hits 20 and it’s acceptable to put a “subject to sale” in an offer.

Boombust
Guest
Boombust

A stupid question like that doesn’t even deserve a reply.

-bubbly-
Member
-bubbly-

The regret must be eating you up inside.

Just me
Guest
Just me

Not really no. Do you regret buying a box in the sky? And, more importantly, can you move up to a bigger/better dwelling from your shoebox? Market conditions apply to all of us: we are all subject to the crazy appreciation of land and SFHs.

Yikes
Guest
Yikes

“The regret must be eating you up inside.”
well there we go, the truth rears its ugly head. You are just trolling. Why would anyone come on a bear housing blog and ask the question should I have bought 10 years ago? And then it turns out you already did buy years ago!

-bubbly-
Member
-bubbly-

I am not asking whether you should have bought 10 years ago. I am just pointing out that people on this blog have been consistently wrong for a long time.

Just me
Guest
Just me

Yet you refuse to answer the stupid question.
I was pretty clear that my answer is no, it is not a good time to buy. What is your answer, or that of all the other smartasses like yourself?

-bubbly-
Member
-bubbly-

I was responding to Boombust. Not sure why you would be upset about that. I guess I hit a soft spot.

Of course, I don’t regret buying the condo. I regret waiting too long. But there is nothing I can do about that.

-bubbly-
Member
-bubbly-

BTW, Just me, I did answer your previous question too.

Boombust
Guest
Boombust

IF you think condos will be in anyway “safe” from the current correction (and yes, there is one underway as we speak) I have a bridge for sale. Of all three market segments, condos will be whacked the hardest.

Strata Hacker
Guest
Strata Hacker

Is that the bridge you live under?

MarKoz
Member

I’m in the same boat as you and Ulsterman. In 2005 Robert Schiller called Vancouver “the most bubbly city in the world”.
https://beta.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/yale-economist-sees-vancouver-bubble/article4117073/?ref=http://www.theglobeandmail.com&
I figured with his Ph.D., Nobel prize in economics and accurate predictions about the dot.com bust and US RE bust I was keeping good company.

I still think the market is irrational but the government(s) will prop it up as long as they can and I may well be dead before a correction.

Just me
Guest
Just me

That is why we should vote into power different governments. I have not written off the NDP yet. it is still possible they will surprise us positively.
One thing I know: if governments let this market on its own and stopped meddling, the prices would be significantly lower.

Doomcouver
Guest
Doomcouver

The free market is only the friend of affordability when a basic human need like shelter is non-commodified. As soon as it starts being traded like an investment vehicle, rather than a depreciating asset, the free market shows it’s ugly side and the speculators rush in. Governments have a responsibility to shield the public from the damaging effects of speculative investment activity in human essentials; up until now, all levels of Canadian government have been doing a piss-poor job.

Strata Hacker
Guest
Strata Hacker

Oh goodness. I’m sure Boombust is a teen.

Just me
Guest
Just me

I am reposting this great article by David Lesperance in McLeans. deserves to be shared one more time. Brilliant.

http://www.macleans.ca/opinion/how-to-fix-canadas-ghost-immigrant-fraud-problem/

Yikes
Guest
Yikes

This article should be sent all the sitting MPs and other politicians. We need to take our country back.

bestplaceonearth
Guest
bestplaceonearth

posting links, cut and paste, all day long. what else can you do for yourself?

Yikes
Guest
Yikes

posting of relevant links and adding to the discussion unlike you who add nothing but discord.

Laibach
Member
Laibach

Ahh, that’s the lost case, a douche who is an amateur realtor/investor/”landlord” with limited mental abilities. What else would he do here, when not unclogging tenant’s toilet or changing bulbs (although that might require some advanced tech skills) but spewing nonsenses and bullshit?

KickThemOut
Member
KickThemOut

haha! Meet these losers…
Jilted Millennial buyers Astrid Poei and Sheldon Fisher started the Mattamy assault – apparently they think it’s unfair that Mattamy lowered the sale price of new homes…

http://www.greaterfool.ca/2018/01/24/not-cool/

Yikes
Guest
Yikes

Since you like to quote Greaterfool when it suits you.

#49 from yesterday
“Astrid and Sheldon were already HGTV stars on an episode of income vacation properties who were “financially stretched” and had to renovate immediately to “keep their dream alive”. Ouch!”

http://www.hgtv.ca/shows/income-property-on-vacation/videos/astrid-sheldon-666871875734/#incomepropertyonvacation/video

KickThemOut
Member
KickThemOut

So? How does that relates to them bitching about Mattamy lowering prices?

Yikes
Guest
Yikes

They drank the same kool-aid that you have.

KickThemOut
Member
KickThemOut

Interesting perspective…people who were right for over a decade has drank the kool-aid, but people who were wrong, and wrong badly, for over a decade are geniuses? Really?

Yikes
Guest
Yikes

it doesn’t sound like they were too “right” to me…

kabloona
Member
kabloona

Holy crap, that is freaking HILARIOUS!!!!! Can’t make this sh*t up…..

🙂

Two crybaby millennial idiots overpaid in Whitby and now want to be made whole….meanwhile, they buy vacation property so they can indulge their hobby of fishing…

😀

Nice catch…… (pun intended!)

xhistory
Guest
xhistory

“History repeats … first as tragedy, then as farce”

Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

I bet they blame foreigners, too.

Just me
Guest
Just me

Not all foreigners. Just the subset that cheats and lies.

Best place on meth
Member
Best place on meth

And we all know which group lies and cheats as naturally as they breathe.

Norwegians.

Why Trump would want more of these pasty-faced herring lickers is beyond me.

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

well, at least Sheldon has Astrid and soon a home of his own vs the crusty 20 yr old bonded leather recliner you camp out on in your mom’s basement. but given that she still does all your laundry, cooks your meals, picks up all your soaked tissues and replenishes your supply of jergens on a regular basis, it sort of makes sense why you do what you do…

KickThemOut
Member
KickThemOut

Talking about yourself again?

Yikes
Guest
Yikes

Nova Scotia trade mission to China will pitch direct air link:premier

http://www.news1130.com/2018/01/25/nova-scotia-trade-mission-to-china-will-pitch-direct-air-linkpremier/

another traitorous politician trying to sell out the very citizen voters who put him into office. He should spend a few days in Vancouver to see what’s in store for Nova Scotia if they let locusts invade.

Burnabonian
Guest
Burnabonian
“[…]write National Bank chief economist Stéfane Marion and senior economist Matthieu Arseneau in a recent report. “But the international evidence suggests that Canadian household leverage and home prices are not abnormal.” hahahahahahahahahahahahaha I’ll just leave these here… “We’ve never had a decline in house prices on a nationwide basis. So, what I think what is more likely is that house prices will slow, maybe stabilize, might slow consumption spending a bit. I don’t think it’s gonna drive the economy too far from its full employment path, though.” “”House prices have risen by nearly 25 percent over the past two years. Although speculative activity has increased in some areas, at a national level these price increases largely reflect strong economic fundamentals.” “With respect to their safety, derivatives, for the most part, are traded among very sophisticated financial institutions and individuals who… Read more »
Bear Vancouverite
Member
Bear Vancouverite

Why do bulls continue to peddle low delinquencies as a fundamental indicator? This argument has been refuted many times: delinquencies are always low in a rising market because people sell instead of defaulting.

Just me
Guest
Just me

Because they cannot peddle much else these days. the market is at a virtual standstill. There is a lot of idle RE agents out there that have to kill time. There is no stock for sale because few people are listing. What will happen next is anybody’s guess.
Much depends on what the NDP does in a few weeks. This is a make-or-break moment for both BC and the NDP.

Burnabonian
Guest
Burnabonian

That is correct.

Ryan
Guest
Ryan

Yep. No one is moving. Dead still.

-bubbly-
Member
-bubbly-

Are Paul’s numbers equivalent to REBGVs? If yes, then according to his numbers, sales are stronger than January last year and roughly on par with 2014.

Just me
Guest
Just me

According to Zolo, January 2018 sales are projected to come out almost 255 lower than last January.
Here:
https://www.zolo.ca/vancouver-real-estate/trends

Listings are also very low. Taunting people is useless. I still regard uninformed buyers for what they are: gamblers. Sometimes gamblers still make money. The question is: should families gamble at today’s prices? Who knows, they might still win. This market has been insane for a long time. But I personally would not do it.

Just me
Guest
Just me

Above I meant 25% lower than last January.

-bubbly-
Member
-bubbly-

Sales so far for January 2018 (according to PaulB): 1429
Sales for all January 2017 (according to REBGV): 1523

4 more business days to go this month and we need only 95 more sales to surpass last year’s numbers.

Just me
Guest
Just me

I am not sure whether Paul’s numbers are representative of the REBGV.

One small note: as a condo owner, and unless you are happy to stay in your condo all your life, you would be way better off if a major price adjustment took place. It is easy to show that the only people who would not want prices to go down are those who sit at the top of the housing pyramids.
People who want to upgrade are equally screwed. in fact, they are even more screed than people who have the equivalent money in cash, as they are way less flexible in their choices.
Just saying…..try to buy an SFH using the gains from your condo appreciation. Good luck with that….

-bubbly-
Member
-bubbly-

The gap between condos and SFHs has been narrowing for the past 2 years.

But thats besides the point. I am not “hoping” for prices to go up, nor am I hoping for a crash. I am quite agnostic about prices.

Just me
Guest
Just me

What happened in the 10years prior to the condo-SFH gap?

Boombust
Guest
Boombust

The REBGV sales mix is probably the most important thing to watch As SFDs always set the market trends so that is the most important market segment; last year there were only 444 detached sales. That was off 57.6 % from January, 2016.

The dollar volume transactions are also important to monitor.

-bubbly-
Member
-bubbly-

January 2016 was a huge outlier. But you’re right that SFHs are selling much slower than everything else.

Bestplaceonearth
Guest
Bestplaceonearth

A landless person likes to give real estate advice. I hope your acquaintance takes you as a joke, otherwise, they are landless forever.

Repo
Guest
Repo

Still showing pull ahead sales from mortgage changes

Doomcouver
Guest
Doomcouver

Exactly, only a complete moron would default before selling in a rising home price environment. Heck if you own a Vancouver house and go broke, just hold out a few months and you’ll have more home equity to expand your HELOC with. Defaults will only go up when homes are worth less than their loans, and sales to list ratios crash and burn. Then they’re painted into a corner and will have to default.

paulb
Member

New
120
Price Change
22
Sold
100
TI:7290

http://www.clivestevepaul.com

Just me
Guest
Just me

Does anybody keep track of average daily sales for January? 100 strikes me as a healthy number, but happy to stand corrected.
Listings are clearly very low.

-bubbly-
Member
-bubbly-

If you take total sales and divide them by the number of business days in January, you will get these averages:

2013 – 61

2014 – 80

2015 – 91

2016 – 126

2017 – 69

2018 – 79 (so far)

Best place on meth
Member
Best place on meth

2017 averaged 76.

That means sales are little changed this year.

-bubbly-
Member
-bubbly-

January 2017 sales = 1523. Business days in January 2017 = 22

1523/22 = 69.23

How did you come up with 76?

Best place on meth
Member
Best place on meth

21 business days.

Also, I have 1601 sales according to Paul’s numbers.

-bubbly-
Member
-bubbly-

That’s why I asked if Paul’s numbers match REBGV, because REBGV says 1523.

Also, how did you get 21 business days? Jan 2 was off? If that’s the case, the 2017 number is 72.5.

Best place on meth
Member
Best place on meth

Jan 1 was a Sunday, Jan 2 was a day off in lieu.

Pauls numbers are close to the board’s but not exactly the same.

-bubbly-
Member
-bubbly-

OK. All my numbers up to 2017 are REBGV. I guess we have to wait until the end of the month to make a correct comparison.

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

so far 2018 numbers are close enough to trailing 5 yr average of 85.4 and are certainly not indicative of any material change worth boasting about. this all said, i would take any Jan #s with a grain of salt. let’s see how things look come Apr/May

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

Douglas Todd: Will B.C. close a notorious tax-avoiding real-estate loophole?
http://vancouversun.com/opinion/columnists/douglas-todd-will-b-c-close-a-notorious-tax-avoiding-real-estate-loophole

“If B.C. had followed the lead of Ontario and closed the bare-trust loophole, it would have “caught all of the shenanigans” exposed in this month’s B.C. Supreme Court case, known as Zu versus Zhu…”

Best place on meth
Member
Best place on meth

Yes, they will.

“Attorney-General David Eby, who earlier criticized the B.C. Liberal cabinet for failing to close the “bare-trust loophole” that he said was costing the government “hundreds of millions of dollars,” suggested in a speech last fall that his government would be fully confronting the problem.

“(It has been) pointed out that for luxury and commercial properties, transfer taxes are avoided through a non-transparent transfer of trust benefit, rather than a sale of the property itself,” Eby said in his speech.

“Such a transfer results in no change in ownership being registered in the public registry. Unacceptable. And we are moving to address these issues as quickly as we can.”

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

another issue is what happens with existing properties that are currently held in bare trusts? will they be grandfathered indefinitely? i can’t imagine how one would tackle the monumental task of undoing the many 1000’s of transactions that have occurred. if this is permitted, then true ownership of a significant % of local real estate will remain hidden possibly for generations

Best place on meth
Member
Best place on meth

They can’t undo the transactions, but they will expose all current owners hiding behind these shell companies.

We’ll know who actually owns what, and the locusts won’t like that one bit.

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

assuming what you say actually happens (doubtful imho…for “privacy” reasons) will the various authorities go after the individuals deemed to have evaded taxes? and more importantly, what happens if the various controlling entities of the bare trust wind being more secretive corporations registered offshore? the folks here simply don’t have the resources, the knowledge base or the man power to dive that deep into the rabbit hole.

Best place on meth
Member
Best place on meth

They certainly should be examining every beneficial owner who is exposed for all criminal tax evasion, and they might find even more if they dig deep.

Immigration fraud comes to mind, they all do it.

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

and regarding the exposure of owners of bare trusts, I suspect they will argue that registered owners of ALL properties would therefore need to be named and made accessible (via some freely avail online registry a la BC Assessment) by the public at any time. good luck with that…

Best place on meth
Member
Best place on meth

I know you feel abused, violated and exploited by the corrupt government that ran BC the last 16 years, to the point where you feel like a young actress in Hollywood who can’t trust a single person in charge anymore…..but let’s just see where the new regime takes this.

We might be surprised, we might be disgusted.

The only thing we know for sure is that some posters here are compulsive liars when it comes to BC politics.

patriotz
Member

” I suspect they will argue that registered owners of ALL properties would therefore need to be named and made accessible … good luck with that…”

Duh. They already are. It’s called a title search.
https://ltsa.ca/property-information/search-title

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

the average person will not pay to access this. i was referring to an ownership registry that could be utilized in the same way as something like BC Assessment

patriotz
Member

” i was referring to an ownership registry that could be utilized in the same way as something like BC Assessment ”

Well OK, but who are the bare trust owners supposed to be making this argument to and what’s the point?

Just me
Guest
Just me

Douglas Todd: Will B.C. close a notorious tax-avoiding real-estate loophole?.

http://vancouversun.com/opinion/columnists/douglas-todd-will-b-c-close-a-notorious-tax-avoiding-real-estate-loophole

Will B.C.’s NDP government close one of the biggest tax-avoiding loopholes in the real-estate industry, which could be shortchanging government coffers of hundreds of millions of dollars?

Just me
Guest
Just me

For years, the B.C. government has failed to follow the lead of the Ontario government, which closed the so-called “bare-trust loophole” more than three decades ago because too many property buyers were abusing it to avoid paying various taxes.

The loophole, routinely exploited by investors wanting to obscure the fact that they are the real owners of B.C. real estate, opens the way for purchasers to avoid paying B.C.’s property transfer tax, the 15-per-cent foreign-buyers tax and various federal income taxes.

Just me
Guest
Just me

If B.C. had followed the lead of Ontario and closed the bare-trust loophole, Hyman said, it would have “caught all of the shenanigans” exposed in this month’s B.C. Supreme Court case, known as Zu versus Zhu, in which two families from China together purchased three expensive houses in Vancouver using trusts and proxies to avoid taxes.

The bare-trust loophole allows the so-called beneficial owners of a property to disguise their identities by holding shares in a shell company, said Hyman. “The shares are often held by a nominee who is a resident of Canada, like a spouse, child or ‘student.’ This obscures the true owners of the property. Their names are not on the property title.”

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

Vancouver locals are about to get first crack at some new condo projects in the region, as developers are either being forced to comply with new regulations or they are voluntarily changing tactics as they face an increasingly irate public
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/british-columbia/vancouver-to-adopt-locals-first-housing-strategy/article37741666/

Just me
Guest
Just me

Not even the Bank of Canada knows when interest rates will rise — but it’s pretty sure it will hurt
Canadians’ debt remains one of the most important issues

http://business.financialpost.com/news/economy/update-1-bank-of-canadas-poloz-says-even-he-doesnt-know-future-of-rate-hikes

“We are absolutely certain the economy will prove to be more sensitive to higher interest rates than in the past.”

Just me
Guest
Just me

“One of the most important (issues) is with the level of debt we have today, compared to what we had 10 years ago. We are absolutely certain the economy will prove to be more sensitive to higher interest rates than in the past,” Poloz added.

Question for Poloz: and why do you think Canadians have accumulated all this debt? Could it have anything to do with interest rates that were kept too low for too long?

What a farce Canadian public policy has become.

Yikes
Guest
Yikes

This is typical of Poloz and his ilk who fail to account for the public’s behaviour in a low debt environment. These central bankers are only looking at numbers and policy but not taking into account people’s actions when they are offered easy credit. And look at the hole we are in now. Giving lectures about excessive debt doesn’t solve anything. These guys are pathetic.

Bag it and tag it
Member
Bag it and tag it

Yup…that what happens when you do the ‘short term gain for long term pain’ thing…time for the pain part now.

Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

How’s it possible for there to be so much debt when foreigners are buying everything? Next you’ll be saying Canadians haven’t been contributing to their RRSPs because they’re to busy servicing RE debt! But that’s ok, right, because RE only ever goes up and why pay somebody else’s mortgage? You gotta live somewhere, after all!

Bag it and tag it
Member
Bag it and tag it

Hmmmm….I wonder if once of the guests at one of these fundraisers had something to do with their deaths?
http://www.metronews.ca/news/canada/2018/01/25/lobbying-commissioner-drops-barry-sherman-liberal-fundraiser.html