economy, mortgage, predictions, rates

Interest rates shoot higher

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98 Comments

Southseacompany pointed out this article about rising interest rates around the world:

The bond market is getting a wake-up call from global central banks that the post-financial crisis era of easy money and super low interest rates is coming to an end.

In what was a sizzling move for the Treasury market, the 10-year yield zipped higher Tuesday amid talk that the Bank of Japan could finally be ready to wind down its easy policies. The 10-year yield broke above the key 2.50 percent level and was trading as high as 2.55 percent, the highest since March.

The 10-year is key since it is a benchmark that mortgages and many other consumer and business loans are based on.

Read the full article here.

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kabloona

Then there’s this…. “Desperate to get into bitcoin, investors slip into debt” https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/taking-debt-buy-bitcoin-dangerous-131600826.html 🙂 “Some investors are taking dangerous risks to get into cryptocurrencies. Roughly 18 percent of people who buy bitcoin use a credit card to do so, according to a new survey by loan marketplace LendEDU. Of those, 20 percent have not paid off their balance. The phrase ” buy bitcoin with credit ” has been trending on Google for weeks. Joseph Borg, president of the North American Securities Administrators Association, a voluntary organization devoted to investor protection, said he often hears of people who’ve made financial sacrifices to own cryptocurrencies. Some are relatively benign: People who have transferred a portion of their money from stocks or mutual funds. But he also hears from people who have gone into credit card debt or taken out home equity loans… Read more »

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kabloona

“Bitcoin plunges as South Korea plans to ban cryptocurrency trading”

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/inside-the-market/market-updates/bitcoin-plunges-as-skorea-plans-to-ban-cryptocurrency-trading/article37570924/

😉

“….Park Nok-sun, a cryptocurrency analyst at NH Investment & Securities, said the herd behaviour in South Korea’s virtual coin market has raised concerns.

Indeed, bitcoin’s 1,500 per cent surge last year has stoked huge demand for cryptocurency in South Korea, drawing college students to housewives and sparking worries of a gambling addiction.

“Some officials are pushing for stronger and stronger regulations because they only see more (investors) jumping in, not out,” Park said….

😀

Sounds a lot like Vancouver condo-buying frenzy…..

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southseacompany

“Shadow Banking: A Threat To Housing Markets”, HiBusiness

http://hibusiness.ca/2018/01/09/shadow-banking-a-threat-to-torontos-housing-markets/

“The increase in home loans in and across the Metro Vancouver area is huge, while the growth of fraudulent mortgage and so-called “shadow banking” are on the rise, shows a Post media investigation.”

“The sudden increment of loans in The Metro Vancouver area is as a result of the Centrals Bank’s figures that shows the rapid growth since 2014 of large mortgages made to people with relatively low incomes.”

“Borrowers, who try to purchase over a million dollars property in the Greater Vancouver market are increasingly taking out dangerous loans from shadow bankers in a fast-growing and poorly regulated financial markets.”

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patriotz

B.C. rolls out new casino rules aimed at tackling money laundering

“To many people – including me – they seem like common sense. If you can’t prove where you got your duffel bag of cash from, the casino is not allowed to accept it. The reason for the change is that, remarkably, B.C. didn’t have it in place already.”

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Oracle

Having a lifetime capital gains exemption limit on primary residences would almost eliminate proxy buyers. I wouldn’t buy for someone if it eats up my exemption.

Having a 2% annual tax on 2nd homes and foreign owned homes would reduce speculation. Can offset with de later rental income. 5% on 3rd homes.

Extend FBT Province wide. Eliminate companies holding residential real estate. Classify foreign students as foreigners.

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Oracle

The lifetime capital gains exemption limit would stop people that sell in Vancouver from buying multiple properties in the valley for speculation purposes.

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Oracle

http://www.news1130.com/2018/01/10/former-bc-attorney-general-heads-campaign-proportional-representation/

Looks like 2 prominent NDP insiders are joint the NO camp. Why doesn’t Eby and Horgan kick them out?

Oh wait, what’s that? The NDP wants the referendum to fail? What??

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history

(history)

Canada is #1
Yes!
We are $1

One one one one won more #1, Yes!
We are
1, 1, 1, 1, 1

January 11th, 2018

Ole!

… posted 26 days ago

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southseacompany

“The top end of Vancouver’s richest home market just took a big hit”, Global News

https://globalnews.ca/news/3955612/vancouver-luxury-home-market-sothebys-report/

“In its report, Sotheby’s broke luxury home sales into three segments:

Homes that sold for between $1 million and $2 million
Properties that cost between $2 million and $4 million
Units that cost $4 million or more

Out of all three, sales of Vancouver homes that cost $4 million or more fell by 33 per cent, steeper than either of the other two price segments in Vancouver, and more sharply than homes worth $4 million or more in Calgary, Toronto and Montreal.”

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Doomcouver

This is likely capital controls in China starting to bite. I expect the prices to stay sticky for the better part of a year until some motivated sellers get desperate. If that happens the luxury market will start putting pressure on the lower rungs of the property ladder.

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Boombust

That has already begun.

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Burnabonian

Haha the picture of “a luxury home in Vancouver” says it all.

Try to spot the luxury home in the picture — seems to be blocked by a modest old house in a boring neighbourhood.

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Best place on meth

When Buffett said this morning“In terms of cryptocurrencies, generally, I can say with almost certainty that they will come to a bad ending,” I had no idea he meant it would happen later today.

https://ca.investing.com/crypto/currencies

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Bear Vancouverite

Here’s an interesting quote that should give some perspective: “One U.S. study of the 2000s housing bubble suggested that for each percentage point increase in the share of “out of town” buyers in an urban market, prices increased by about 2 per cent over the next year.” https://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/rob-commentary/what-toronto-and-vancouver-housing-data-do-and-dont-tell-us/article37562481/ And another: “4.8 per cent of the housing stock is owned by “non-residents” in Vancouver and 3.4 per cent in Toronto – roughly 36,000 housing units in Vancouver and 56,000 in Toronto. Nothing to sneeze at.” 36,000 units owned by foreign buyers is a really big number, IMO. Although many of those units are likely to be occupied I think there’s some need here for additional measures to discourage speculation of any nature, and that also includes foreign speculators. “Third, non-resident buyers are acting as the “marginal buyers.” In each housing category,… Read more »

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Doomcouver

I agree with this. Foreigners are definitely the majority of marginal buyers. They escalate prices by overpaying on the way up, and will undoubtedly accelerate the crash by slashing prices below market on the way down. Locals are more stingy on the buying or selling side (mostly out of necessity because many of them are flat broke). In a crash politicians will have wished they banned foreign speculators entirely. They have no use for our real estate other than capital appreciation, and won’t hesitate to have a fire sale to liquidate their holdings in a crisis.

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patriotz

“Foreigners are definitely the majority of marginal buyers.”

The marginal buyer is the one who can afford the current market price but no more (thus marginal), and so is the first to be forced out of the market when someone with deeper pockets enters it. If you want to sound credible at all acquaint yourself with basic economic terminology.

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SilentBob

There’s a difference between marginal buyers and marginal sellers, friend. How do you like the weather out east?

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Shut It Down Already

You’re saying that locals are the worst off financially but will somehow be the last to sell? Hilarious.

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Burnabonian

Last paragraph. Sing it from the hills. One dude buys one BTC for $20k: This action causes the “currency” to be “valued” at $335B and instantly generates multiple “billionaires” and thousands of “millionaires”. BTC forums explode with confirmation bias. All based on a single action by a single person on a single day. This does not mean that all BTC could be sold for that much. It does not mean that ANY BTC could be sold for that much. It does not mean that anyone just became a billionaire. Recent sale prices of similar items in a similar market are a useful measure of theoretical value but not to be confused with a bank statement. There’s a reason your appraiser only guarantees his appraisal up to the cost of his fee — if end up losing half a million on… Read more »

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Best place on meth

Good riddance Mayor Qu, and thank you for your 10 years of zero accomplishments.

Less than zero, actually.

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Doomcouver

Unaffordable housing, rampant homelessness, shady land deals, worthless bike lanes… seems like he accomplished a lot to me. Also don’t forget creating the empty home tax and airbnb regulation, with no real plan on how to ensure compliance or more money to fund enforcement. In my mind he screwed over Vancouverites extremely efficiently.

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ostritch

Friends who work at City Hall say there is zero staff to enforce empty home tax and AirBNB restrictions. Aaaaiiiyyyaaa.

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Lost....but not leased

Glegol Loberston not run again for mayor of Hongcouver ?

No problem..he has another job as Justin Turdeau’s doppleganger…..
…………..good thing Glegol quit first as Justin was thinking along similar lines.

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YVR

Nice to see Moonbeam gone. Maybe he got a job directly with a developer now they can’t fund him directly as a policitian.

Only problem is his underlings that may take over are worse. Mayor Kerry Jang anyone?

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paulb

New
175
Price Change
9
Sold
52
TI:6877

http://www.clivestevepaul.com

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Burnabonian

For anyone who hasn’t been following, this is the Great Macro Unwind aka the bursting of The Everything Bubble. Quantitative Easing involved force feeding the world’s economies with trillions of dollars in newly-created money, and the lowering of interest rates to zero or below. This was done to avoid the collapse of the financial system after 2008. It worked because when people have easy access to money and credit, they tend to go out and do useful things with it (in search of yield) which keeps the economy going even when it would otherwise shut down. The side effect however was that those who got ahold of all the new money had no place lucrative to invest it. This is because interest rates were at zero. So they started putting all this money it into ANYTHING that would generate more… Read more »

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Dave

I think this is one of the most interesting questions of our time and it gets almost zero attention in the media, our politicians and economists. I have thought a lot about this in the last ten years. Nobody knows the implications of our 500 year low interest rates and massive debt to GDP ratio. I haven’t read a convincing case either way saying it’s inevitable we’re going to crash or that we can continue economic growth. All things being equal, I think you have to bet on things turning out because we’ve rigged the financial system to that outcome. I think the biggest risk is past us which was the 2009 crash. The risk there was that the Fed was caught off guard and they could have reacted too slowly. But luckily we had a student of the Great… Read more »

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realist

The last decade has seen the lowest interest rates in 5000 years of recorded history, and money creation of unprecedented volume. These conditions are overlaid on a background of a multi-decade decline in growth rates in OECD countries, accompanied by ever-expanding debt; thus ever-increasing debt/GDP ratios. Whither all this? I highly recommend Wolfgang Streeck’s recent book “How Will Capitalism End?” He has no definitive answer, but his meditation on the question is profound and readable. (Streeck is Director of the Max Planck Institute for Social Research in Cologne)

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Doomcouver

Yes, when talking about our global credit bubble, it’s important to frame the conversation in the context of it being the lowest sustained interest rates EVER in recorded history. It then becomes a logical conclusion to assume that the outcome would be the largest global credit bubble burst ever. Unless you’re talking to one of those “new normal” people, but trying to convince them to see logic is a waste of oxygen.

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Burnabonian

Animal spirits man. The intuitive sense that this is all just not quite right. $1T in credit card debt in the USA now. Everyone living large off borrowed money. China’s $38T in dodgy loans — the entire financial system of the second largest economy on earth being fake. Paying for the world (or at least kicking the debt can) with atypical appreciation and atypical gains. The abandonment of the principle of looking at fundamentals for valuation. Pay no attention to the man behind the curtain. This is how I explain the popularity of alternative currencies worldwide, the rise of “prepping”, and ZeroHedge having view counts that would make a billion dollar media company blush. I think that people intuitively know to look for the nearest fire exit because they can feel in their bones that something isn’t right. They are… Read more »

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Dave

People aren’t buying Bitcoin as a place to keep their money safe. They are doing it for the opposite reason, which is speculation. If people wanted safety, there is a thing called cash and sometimes gold. In my opinion, we still have a ways to go before any type of a bubble burst in global assets. The US economy is picking up momentum as is global growth. We’re not likely to get a downturn in growth for some time. I think we have a few more years to go. As far an animal spirits go, we only just crossed into a widespread level of confidence. People aren’t looking at the stock market as a can’t lose place to put their money yet. To this point, the market has gone up through a wall of worry. Euphoria has a different feeling… Read more »

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Burnabonian

I desperately hope that you are right about all of that.

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Dave

Personally, I’d rather the global asset bubble pop now, rather than later, because I know that will take Vancouver real estate down with it.

The sooner this market corrects, the better off this City is.

I think the next global recession is a few years away still. If that foreign money doesn’t stop flowing here, we could be up another 50% in that time.

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ostritch

Agree with everything you are saying but if we look at Japan as an example they had a lot of false starts over the years and were forced back into ZIRP. How can we be sure this is truly the end. I can see the FED over-tightening, followed by recession, followed by ZIRP, in short order. Its def a possibility.

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YVR

“How can we be sure this is truly the end.”

Japan didn’t have Trump.

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Doomcouver

It’s a possibility, but in the Japan example the highest they were able to get interest rates over the past 2 decades was 0.25% – a pretty weak attempt to normalize rates. In the USA They’ve already lifted rates from .25% just before 2016 to 1.5% now. The relative aggressiveness of rate hikes leads me to believe a reversal is unlikely, especially if deflation doesn’t rear it’s ugly head over the short term. Even if asset bubbles start popping, the Fed won’t want to change direction unless the broader economy is being affected.

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CRA221

https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/vancouver-mayor-gregor-robertson-won-t-seek-re-election-1.3753955

Gregor won’t seek re-election. Looks like his internal polling numbers must be worse than we thought!

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Mick Murphy

Immigration scams, tax evasion and mortgage fraud: Court case reveals Vancouver foreign buyers’ dirty tricks

https://thinkpol.ca/2018/01/08/immigration-scams-tax-evasion-mortgage-fraud-court-case-reveals-vancouver-foreign-buyers-dirty-tricks/

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Laibach

What is wrong with fuking Norwegians, they are like a plague. Whatever they get close to, it goes down to shitter.

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Best place on meth

Bookmark this page, it’s a wonderful summary of the locust’s favorite scams these fucking assholes commit in our country.

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Crewl Reno

2152 Parker street Vancouver flip alert CRA Reno flip hack job no permits

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All-in

Alert @corruptgregor

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Time to go

It’s official, Gregor’s out in 2018!

https://www.facebook.com/gregorrobertson/posts/1736420756408592

Just like Christy, getting out of dodge before SHTF! Smart move really.

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Burnabonian

The Titanic metaphor continues.

Is Gregor a first class passenger who is stepping lithely into the private lifeboat that behooves his station? (While the peasants and poors are told that there is no reason to worry, natch.)

Or is it the rats that usually leave first because they know it’s sinking before anyone else?

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patriotz

Wow, one prediction I actually got right. Now let’s see if he runs for NDP leader following Horgan’s crushing defeat as others have predicted. 🙂

http://vancouvercondo.info/2017/03/banks-would-rather-not-take-on-more-risk.html#comments

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Dave

It’s pretty rare in Canada that we give politicians more than 10 years as a leader. The list of people who head into an election looking popular, but only to lose, is quite long. I think this is widely accepted now and he can see a loss coming if he were to run. There are enough issues that the electorate is angry about that some will have traction.

There is no point in ruining your brand if you have greater aspirations, especially with the Provincial minority situation.

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BubbleTea

Dan Fumano: If foreign home ownership is a $45-billion ‘tip of the iceberg,’ Vancouver expert hopes ‘we’re not on the Titanic’
http://vancouversun.com/news/local-news/dan-fumano-digging-deeper-following-the-money-on-foreign-property-ownership?utm_term=Autofeed&utm_campaign=Echobox&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#link_time=1515582331

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Burnabonian

Vancouver is the Titanic

And we are all Jack.

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Dave

Jacking off the boat.

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Burnabonian

I am Jack’s complete lack of surprise.

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ostritch

I’m Simple Jack.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=yEeOFv-_-kI

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bullwhip29

Canadian officials believe that Trump is going to yank the US out of NAFTA
http://www.businessinsider.com/canadian-officials-believe-trump-will-pull-us-out-of-nafta-2018-1

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Dave

I think Trump will do it for negotiating clout and just to say he did it. I think the price for Mexico coming back will be paying for the Wall.

I think our Dollar heads to 0.75 here, but higher rates will slow that fall.

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patriotz

No US legislation grants the president power to pull out of NAFTA. If Trump tries it he will be challenged in court by US business interests and this could drag out for a long time. In addition it would further split the Republicans with the mid-terms coming up – the states that would be most negatively affected by a pullout are mainly Republican.

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kabloona

A different opinion….

“If Donald Trump kills NAFTA, Canada could benefit: Walkom. We’d still have free trade. But U.S. corporations would no longer have the right to override Canadian law. ”

:-O

https://www.thestar.com/opinion/commentary/2016/11/11/if-donald-trump-kills-nafta-canada-could-benefit-walkom.html

🙂

“….As the New York Times reported earlier this year, U.S. presidents may have to win Congressional approval to pass new trade deals. But thanks to a series of laws passed over the 20th century, they need no such approval to scrap or override existing trade deals.

If Trump wants to slap a punitive tariff on imported goods, he can legally do so.

If he wants the U.S. out of NAFTA, he need only give six months notice….”

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Dave

Patriotz, I think you get too caught up in the details. You may very well be correct with the legality and technicals of pulling out of a trade deal. But, that has no predictive power when you are dealing with a person like Trump. If he wants to pull out of the deal, that’s what he’ll do, even if it’s in only in appearance and verbiage. It may not carry all the consequences of actually pulling out, but it carry many of them.

I bet when Trump said he had a nuclear button on his desk, you probably thought he was being literal.

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patriotz

“I bet when Trump said he had a nuclear button on his desk, you probably thought he was being literal.”

Well maybe there’s a fake one, like those fake Time magazine covers. But I know perfectly well there’s no real “button”.

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Dave

Suspicion confirmed.

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history

Immaterial. The Spook USA mearely whispers Tainted Beef in AB, and wipes out an industry and culture. Fuk the Snivellers and their fascist claptrap. Nafta is a weapon that either uplifts or subjects the global MiddleMan culture.

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Strata Hacker

Wrong as usual patriots. Republican states are not affected by Canadian trade. Most of our trade is with Dem voting States.

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Patiently Waiting

Anyone else involved in an import/export with the US? Shipping across the border has been more of a pain-in-the-ass since Trump was elected. Maybe just a coincidence?

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Best place on meth

Mexico will leave NAFTA talks if Trump triggers process to withdraw

https://ca.investing.com/news/economy-news/update-1mexico-will-leave-nafta-talks-if-trump-triggers-process-to-withdraw-952011

Meanwhile, Turd will consult with an equal number of men and women on what to do next.

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history

The meeting is to be held on the Beach, Cancun, thongs MANdatory. No thong, no admittance. Sorry guys, i know this gives the women a decided advantage. Man thongs are available at Bikini Shack in Duty Free, $150.00 half price sale.

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Abdul Lahazi

Metro Vancouver housing prices expected to keep climbing in 2018: Royal LePage

http://www.news1130.com/2018/01/10/metro-vancouver-housing-prices-royal-lepage/

“It’s unlikely we’ll see actual softness or dropping in home prices in the near future. In fact, I’d be surprised to see prices actually back up again over the next few years,” Soper says.

>>> does his statement above (read carefully) make any sense? Why would be be “surprised”?

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Boombust

Duh. What else did you expect Phil Soper to say?

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Burnabonian

Best Quality Auto on Kingsway also told me that if I buy a 2006 Accord it will be an excellent investment and that I should not miss this opportunity to get in on the ground floor.

There’s always free cheese in a mousetrap.

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Abdul Lahazi

This place?

https://mvsabc.com/vsa-registrar/interim-order-registrar-best-import-auto-ltd/

“It was alleged that Best Import was selling unsafe motor vehicles to consumers and continuing to do so in disregard for conditions placed on its registration.”

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Burnabonian

Haha that’s them.

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Shut It Down Already

It’s a typo, not a riddle.

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history

The Spiritualiat says you shoot yourself in the foot when you come to the party with Expectations.

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Doomcouver

“You should keep buying real estate in 2018.”
– A Self Interested, Wealthy Scumbag

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Strata Hacker

I would rather listen to the advice of someone who knows how to make money and has actually done so than a broke ass hysteric who’s been wrong all these years.

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BubbleTea

“What I would like to know is can birth tourism parents buy property for their newborns without paying the 15 percent foreign owner tax?”

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BubbleTea

U.S. Feds raid over 29 California ‘Maternity Hotels’ for Birth Tourists. What are our Federal politicians doing in Canada? Absolutely nothing.
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/feds-raid-l-maternity-hotel-birth-tourists-n315996?platform=hootsuite

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Best place on meth

Too bad they didn’t go “Waco” on these hotels.

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Strata Hacker

LPC will invite those criminals to Canada to feast on the bones of decent law abiding Canadians.

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Abdul Lahazi

No. They have to be of legal age in BC to buy property, so they cannot put the property in the name of a minor to avoid the tax.

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Doomcouver

How about if you lie about their birthday when you file for their birth certificate? Hospital records can’t be that hard to forge. Heck, why even have a baby, just make up some fake birth records, and send it off to get a birth certificate for a non-existent person. BC’s Vital Statistics Agency can’t be that difficult to defraud. Imagine how many “ghost citizens” could own McMansions in Richmond.

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Shut It Down Already

Making things up sure is fun, isn’t to?

Now you should demand that somebody prove you wrong, and that there aren’t 1000s of Vancouver homes owned by foreign babies. It’s the next logical step.

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Dyugle

Ever heard of chain migration?

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Lip

https://thetyee.ca/Opinion/2018/01/10/Weaver-Electoral-Reform/

Electoral Reform doomed.

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history

Secret money needs to be dealt with first before PR. It’s a sequence that is followed. Dont lose hope. Have faith. Accept.
3 or 4 years from now after the NewAge Fascists get their assets handed to them, and they too, Accept their fate.. that would be a better time to rebirth Populism or Participatory govt, or whatever it gonna be.

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Dave

I think it’s going to pass.

The GreeNDP rigged the vote by making the threshold 50%+1 and keeping turnout low by having the vote during municipal elections.

I think if the NDP are smart, they’ll sabotage it somehow but so far everything they have done is helping it pass. It’s a head scratcher.

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Oracle

Disagree. All it takes is one or two MLAs to leave and the government falls. None of the current MLAs wants to lose their seat.

Expect a new election by summer. NDP will be down substantially as Site C and housing people won’t vote for them. Liberals will win. Referendum cancelled.

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Dave

Along that line of thinking, a lot of internal party types in the NDP are against PR, since they know it’s going to take away their power. I’m sure there are a few MLA’s who are influenced by those people and/or share that point of view. They could strategically get sick. Horgan did a good job of neutering Weaver by forcing him to support the NDP until the bitter end, since an early election would be FPP. So, I think Horgan will want PR to pass just to keep himself in power. But maybe he engineers it to take the government down early to avoid an actual PR election, knowing it’s a bad thing for the NDP. The likely outcome of that election is either an NDP or Liberal majority, after which PR dies. Anyway I agree with your line… Read more »

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Burnabonian

Hang onto your hat, Puddytat.

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Abdul Lahazi

Restaurant owner says “bananas” don’t get importance of shark-fin soup:

https://www.straight.com/food/restaurant-owner-says-bananas-dont-get-importance-shark-fin-soup

These backwards superstitious country-bumpkin mainlanders really need to get into the 21st century. How much more of the environment will they destroy before there is nothing left, just to feed their own superstitions? Shark fin, bear gall bladder, powdered rhino horn, etc…

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Lip

Within 2 decades, Sharks and Bears will become extinct. Illegal demand from a billion people.

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history

On the contrary, our planet is more likely to turn into a giant zoo, where we have pockets of tribal remnants under preservation. Chung can have his Soup Kitchen, but it’ll be the only one in the neighbourhood. Monsanto shark fin soup, served free.

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Best place on meth

Maybe the human race will get lucky and it’s the chinese who become extinct.

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best place on earth

“Bears will become extinct”
I like the sound of that. It would mean there would be no more whining, and everyone would have a roof over their heads.

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DaMann

Unreal. When I read that article it’s scary how entitled he thinks he is to do what he wants. Canada be damned! Talk about a culture clash!

Banana? Never heard that term before. Is that supposed to imply yellow on the outside white on the inside? i wonder how well it would go down if I used that term…

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Doomcouver

Just Chinese people being racist against other Chinese people. “Bananas” are asians that made the HORRIBLE mistake of actually trying to integrate into western society instead of huddling into racial enclaves like the rest of the mainlanders do.

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history

Potato, while we’re on the subject. Brown on the outside, white in the middle. You’ll hear that on the West Coast too.

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Lost....but not leased

Q:Whats yellow on inside, white on outside?
A:Most realtors !!!(except Nu coast)

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Best place on meth

A “banana” doesn’t swear allegiance to the motherland and the han race, which makes them a target of hatred by the commie vermin.

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Doomcouver

Bananas can stay. Maoists and corrupt CCP officials need to leave.

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