Friday Free-for-all! February 23rd 2018

It’s that time of the week again… Friday free-for-all time! And BC Budget time!

This is our usual end of the week news round up and open topic discussion thread for the weekend, here are a few recent links to kick off the chat:

Transitional rules needed?
A war on upper end homes
No more hiding
Market gets tougher
That speculation tax

So what are you seeing out there? Post your news links, thoughts and anecdotes in the comments below and have an excellent weekend!

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James
Guest
James

Anybody have Speculation Tax detail?

Tax nerg
Guest

There is no draft legislation for the speculation tax at this time. Draft legislation of the other measures are currently in first reading at the legislature but nothing has been tabled for the speculation tax.

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

as mentioned yesterday, James is monitoring the situation and may “tweek” things as she sees fit. nothing like uncertainty and a possible rug pull for all the buyers, sellers and fence sitters out there…

ostritch
Member
ostritch

So far this is the most interesting post on this blog. The. It quickly descends into immature name-calling. Get a grip boys.

Name
Guest
Name

New BC Liberal Leader Was The Biggest Defender Of Christy Clark’s Corporate Big Money Bonanza

https://pressprogress.ca/new-bc-liberal-leader-was-the-biggest-defender-of-christy-clarks-corporate-big-money-bonanza/

new boss same as the old boss…

Dave
Member

You know that’s actually not news right? It’s sponsored advertising more or less and you’re a dummy for posting it, never mind reading that garbage to begin with.

Just me
Guest
Just me

But it is true. Sadly so. Not fake news at all.

Name
Guest
Name

Dave doesn’t realize that news can come from many sources… he would rather sink to insults instead of acknowledging the truth.

Dave
Member

Read and believe whatever you want. I’m just pointing out that anybody with a modicum of intelligence sees this for what it is and thinks less of you for posting it. The truth is you should feel embarrassed. Ed Broadbent should likewise feel embarrassed for creating hack news. I had some respect for the guy until I read he started that ‘news’ site.

The truth isn’t selectively picking facts that fit your narrative. This is the biggest problem with media today and it’s causing tremendous political division in our society. It’s BS and I call it out from whatever direction it comes from. You should too.

Name
Guest
Name

Hey Dave should I send you all my links before posting so you can vet them? You seem to think you’re an expert on this. So what if you think it’s hack news or BS or whatever you want to call it out as; maybe others will still find it interesting. Even most MSM news is spin and biased anyways.

“I’m just pointing out that anybody with a modicum of intelligence sees this for what it is and thinks less of you for posting it.” You speak for everybody? who cares? We are all anonymous here and you take yourself too seriously.

YVR
Guest
YVR

Lefties love fake news. They can’t handle the truth.

Bag it and tag it
Member
Bag it and tag it

Before the NDP measures you said you were a proponent of stronger rules to decrease demand, but now that it’s happened it seems you’re concerned about a falling market to the point you want the liberals back in power which is why you’re snapping at the poster of a link which would hurt Wilky’s chances of winning and election.

patriotz
Member

“You know that’s actually not news right? ”

Sure we know, because it says “ANALYSIS” right at the top. You know what analysis is? It’s looking at facts and drawing conclusions. It’s full of references to facts. The conclusion is “New BC Liberal Leader Was The Biggest Defender Of Christy Clark’s Corporate Big Money Bonanza”.

You don’t have to agree with that conclusion, but don’t go calling someone a “dummy” just because they think it’s worth reading.

Just me
Guest
Just me

Transitional rules needed? No. We need to stop welfare for millionaires and real estate agents.

A war in upper end homes? Not really. Just the end of unreasonable advantages and low tax’s for multimillion dollar homes.

bestplaceonearth
Guest
bestplaceonearth

Let stop the freeloaders first, find employment and more employment for them. . Nothing wrong to be a millionaires if they work their butt off, and invest smart. Growth out of the stupid bears mentality already.

Laibach
Member
Laibach

In your case, there is no use of graduating at Confucius university when your stupidy morphs into insanity. Seriously, do you have an idea what are you talking about?

bestplaceonearth
Guest
bestplaceonearth

You are so smart, why aren’t you owning your home?

KickThemOut
Member
KickThemOut

Because they want it for free!

Just me
Guest
Just me

Hardly free, for all your nonsensical chatter.
Even a 30% drop would keep properties in the multimillion category.

Certainly, lower prices are desirable.

Just me
Guest
Just me

Welfare for millionaires.
They have had the lowest housing taxes in North America for decades.

bestplaceonearth
Guest
bestplaceonearth

Tell me, who pay taxes to feed the addicts? and who has to shell out their own money to buy needles to inject insulin?

Just me
Guest
Just me

The questions you ask are absolutely irrelevant. This is not about freeloaders and addicts. This is about restoring a modicum of decency in our housing market (and society at large) and charging taxes that represent the true value of the assets held.

Mt Tha in the article you linked to is a millionaire many times over. Yet, his taxes were a tiny proportion of his wealth. This is not right on many levels. An obvious one is the following: if I have 6 million dollars in the stock market (rather than housing) my effective tax rate is a lot (a lot!) larger.

And don’t even get me started on labor income taxes. The old system rewarded idle rents.

KickThemOut
Member
KickThemOut

Rich bastards like him should be crucified and wealth distributed to the needy homeless bears. Bears are people too! With needs! Like free housing in a Van West detached

Just me
Guest
Just me

Nobody said anything about crucifying or punishing people. Just taxing them in a fair way, like in other jurisdictions.
Home taxes in Vancouver are some of the lowest in North America. A fraction of what is paid in NY, SF and so on. We should equalize taxation across different types of capital (stocks, houses) and relieve pressure from taxation of labor income.

Stop spinning what other people write.

Bestplaceonearth
Guest
Bestplaceonearth

Why do you hate the rich so much? Envy and jealousy will kill you slowly. Work harder!

Royce McC
Guest
Royce McC

[Checks household T4 statements and net value of savings and investments.]
[Recalls the years of sacrifice and hard work it took to acquire these things.]
[Remembers that high real estate values owe a lot more to deeply flawed policies on taxes, immigration, etc. than they do to hard work.]

@bestplaceonearth: Yeah, you’re not trolling who you think you’re trolling. And antagonizing people like me – who would likely be a BC Liberal supporter if not for the housing/corruption issue – is exactly how we ended up with the current government.

Bestplaceonearth
Guest
Bestplaceonearth

And the current government will drive this economy o the ground that will take years to recover. Did you happen to forget all the years prior 2002? It’s deja vu all over again.

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

>>> more on the Anbang atory….

China’s government takes over BC’s biggest retirement home chain
https://thinkpol.ca/2018/02/22/chinas-government-takes-bcs-biggest-retirement-home-chain/

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

reposting this from yesterday…

BLOOMBERG: China Regulator Seizes Anbang, Chairman Faces Fraud Prosecution
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-02-23/china-regulators-to-take-control-of-anbang-insurance-for-1-year-jdz9l5fp

Best place on meth
Member
Best place on meth

Let the organ harvesting of BC’s elderly begin!

Sebastien
Member
Sebastien

They’ll do it without anestesia to save money.

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29
Diadora
Guest
Diadora

China’s credit, real estate and shadow banking bubble/ponzi scheme is blowing up as we speak. Vancouver’s real estates have no where to go but down, straight down.

Bag it and tag it
Member
Bag it and tag it

My guess is that the chairman grossly overpaid for assets, with other peoples money, in exchange for cash kickbacks from the sellers, which is why he liked doing business with d bags like Kushner that are ‘open for business’.

Dave
Member

I’ve said it a few times previously, but I think the leading indicator for a correction will be multiple listings by a single realtor within one building.

Another good indictor will be watching pre-sale listings. Obviously those are easier to dump than a completed unit.

patriotz
Member

“Another good indictor will be watching pre-sale listings. Obviously those are easier to dump than a completed unit.”

I’m not so sure of that in a falling market. Buy an actual unit and at least you have a place to live at payments you qualified for, even if prices go down. Buying a pre-sale can put you into bankruptcy if prices tank.

Dave
Member

Ya, but a lot of people are sitting on profits with their presales. Why would you complete in a falling market? Just flip the presale early at a discount. So in my mind, that’s the canary to watch for.

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

if the SHTF many of these offshore buyers will just walk away from their piddly a$$ deposits and disappear without completing.

patriotz
Member

“if the SHTF many of these offshore buyers will just walk away from their piddly a$$ deposits and disappear without completing.”

I don’t think the developers, or the banks that lend them money, would allow offshore pre-sales with only “piddly” deposits.

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

initial deposit of 5-10% isnt much. if SHTF buyers will walk away. financing doesnt enter the conversion until much later in the process if at all if buyer was never intending on keeping unit

patriotz
Member

“financing doesnt enter the conversion until much later in the process”

I was talking about the financing the developers need to build in the first place. The banks require them to have a certain % of units pre-sold before lending, and I think they’d expect more upfront if there was no recourse against the buyers if they walk.

KickThemOut
Member
KickThemOut

Wow, so knowledgeable! Coming from someone who has never bought a condo and no idea how pre-sales work.

Lost,... but not leased
Guest
Lost,... but not leased

Yes..it’s called ” chasing the market down “….if the haircuts average is say 10 % go for 15% haircut…the warning signs are there.

realist
Member
realist

“Buying a pre-sale can put you into bankruptcy if prices tank.”

Exactly so, but it’s been so long since that happened in any numbers in BC (early 1980’s), that most players today are unaware of this nasty possibility.

Bag it and tag it
Member
Bag it and tag it

how can that be tracked? Could you post for us?

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

Expansion of foreign buyers tax to Okanagan, Vancouver Island questioned
http://vancouversun.com/pmn/news-pmn/canada-news-pmn/expansion-of-b-c-foreign-buyers-tax-to-okanagan-vancouver-island-is-questioned/wcm/2bbc1da0-ad24-4f6e-8c35-07121e02c0b3

>>> it seems rather interesting (and laughable) that the very same folks who claim(ed) that there has only been a “light sprinkling” of foreign buyers in their markets and that price increases have been due to other factors are suddenly all getting hot and bothered about the new measures, which in theory shouldn’t affect them whatsoever if what they claimed was truly correct

Dave
Member

The Asian money definitely starting moving into Victoria about two years ago. Signs of it were everywhere. I don’t think it made it to the Okanagan to any significant extent.

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

presence is significant and growing in any region that rolled out the red carpet for intl students. you have to look closer. powell river had a chinese new years parade this year.

Just me
Guest
Just me

Yes correlation with students presence is high.

ostritch
Member
ostritch

Crikie.

ostritch
Member
ostritch

Except for wineries and land in Naramata. Friends there tell me they bought significantly in that area.

ostritch
Member
ostritch

And by friend I mean someone who loves there, works in agriculture, and has access to the land title registry.

Shut It Down Already (original)
Guest
Shut It Down Already (original)

Are they allowed to just pull random titles, or would that be grounds for dismissal under privacy laws?

patriotz
Member

” or would that be grounds for dismissal under privacy laws?”

Land titles have alway been public domain. No privacy whatsoever. Lots of people like lawyers and notaries (and probably insurers and banks) have online accounts and can look at any title they want for a small fee. And anyone at all can walk into one of their offices and get a copy.

Shut It Down Already (original)
Guest
Shut It Down Already (original)

So if anybody can get a copy and it’s public domain why can’t I find it online for free? Or at least a snapshot of it at a given point in time?

Specuskeptic
Member

You have to go to land titles and pay a small fee I believe.

ostritch
Member
ostritch

Yup. Something like $6. I think you’re confusing access to land titles to the real estate cartel’s ownership of their MLS system. That you can’t access unless you blow a realtor or become a customer.

Specuskeptic
Member

Breaking up that cartel is also on my wish list. It’s the 21st century. If your business model relies on information asymmetry, its days are numbered. The real estate cartel is a classic example of this. Hello Zillow!

Assuming something like this is a federal responsibility?

patriotz
Member

“So if anybody can get a copy and it’s public domain why can’t I find it online for free?”

Because public domain doesn’t mean you that can get it for free. Just that you can get it.

ostritch
Member
ostritch

She sees it all.

ostritch
Member
ostritch

OK farmland mostly all bought up by South Asians.

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

and still no FBT there 😉

Specuskeptic
Member

If someone’s an offshore buyer and they look at recent changes to provincial government policy and come to the conclusion that new policy is quite hostile to foreign (hell, out of province) investment, is the choice to look farther afield within the province or to, perhaps, look beyond the province to somewhere else? The signalling here is important I think. Curious to see if we’re in a game of whack-a-mole or if the money will seek a new home out of province altogether.

ostritch
Member
ostritch

I vote for whack-a-mole. Plus Vancouver has become majority Chinese for its minority??! If you catch my drift. The appeal of that is they know in a few decades they’ll have it all.

Just me
Guest
Just me

Long term Asian residents are as opposed to millionaire migrants as non-Asians.
This. Is about local incomes versus foreign money.

KickThemOut
Member
KickThemOut

If your family hasn’t been in Canada for 3+ generations and didn’t came from old world, you are a fucking foreigner!

Best place on meth
Member
Best place on meth

You’re calling me a foreigner?

Fuck you locust, I’m more Canadian than you’ll ever be!

Bag it and tag it
Member
Bag it and tag it

“A foreign buyers tax will do little to cool the British Columbia housing markets where it’s been expanded, as international purchasers make up only a small percentage of sales and lack of supply is the bigger problem, real estate groups say.”
Well then what’s the problem. The market stays hot for those RD groups, and the gov collects tonnes of money. Why are you complaining???

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

THE ECONOMIST: The rapid rise and fall of the Anbang empire
https://www.economist.com/news/business-and-finance/21737343-chinas-government-takes-control-its-would-be-financial-colossus-rapid-rise

>>> picture this…Anbang is just the tip of the iceberg. now multiply this by 100 or 1000. now imagine what happens to all the phony millionaires and billionaires, their offspring and all the toys they have acquired as all this goes up in a puff of smoke

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

as expected the chinese govt (as other govts have also done) will do everything in their power to downplay hide or even the problem, but inevitably word will get out.

Dave
Member

This is exactly what an unwind will look like. You would expect that levered money from China buying assets in the West will reach a point of questionable solvency. The government of course doesn’t want an unwind to occur because they know defaults have momentum. I predicted that in an unwind scenario, companies like this won’t be able to default on their Chinese debt. So in order to stay solvent, they will have to unwind their Western assets. Better to default to an American bank than a Chinese one.

And I agree with you… this could be bigger by orders of magnitude.

A Chinese unwind would hit Vancouver hard. It would be amazing to see.

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

in terms of timing i suspect this is bear stearns circa 2007 when two of their funds quietly imploded and the powers that be and the msm glossed over the whole story. this will be larger than the japanese unwind (which is still ongoing) and will unravel much faster than it did in 2008. will be interesting to see if all involved allow a superficial “bad” bank to “good” bank transfer (at mark to make believe prices) of the bentall bldgs and other global assets to allow can to be kicked down road for a little longer.

KickThemOut
Member
KickThemOut

and you will miss that buying opportunity just like you did last time.

Specuskeptic
Member

There are opportunities all over the place. You might want to consider the opportunity cost of spending all this time on here blowing gaskets. Get out there and find those deals KTO! (Then come back and brag about how rich you got.)

ostritch
Member
ostritch

Yes but:

1 Some personal assets like escape homes for wife and kids may be hidden from the Chinese government
2 At the same time, China is committed to their One Belt One Road initiative and won’t want to give up all foreign assets.
3. Saving face: I think the Chinese would rather see their poorer countrymen suffer than lose face (massively) on an international scale.

Dave
Member

It doesn’t matter if the assets were hidden or not. If the government is holding a gun to your head to stay liquid, they’re going to sell assets in the West, hidden or not.

It’s not a question of all assets, it’s a question of to what extent. If just 20% were to be sold off, it could cause a real estate downturn.

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

all it would take is for clients to pull their accounts out of Anbang and others en masse. either run on the bank occurs or authorities step in and halt withdrawals. i think the saving face part of the program that ostritch brought up is in rear view mirror now. it seems clear to me that a number of these large co’s are effectively insolvent. cue the “damage is contained” statements from all the so called experts once again…

ostritch
Member
ostritch

Maybe. If. If. And if. I remember Barry Ritholtz commenting in frustration that all Chinese bIllionmaires wanted were Vancouver houses. Not sure Vancouver will see a sell off. London just “sold off” was collapsing by 10% and more and the Saudis swept back in and bought up Belgravia and Kensington.

patriotz
Member

“China is committed to their One Belt One Road initiative and won’t want to give up all foreign assets”

Don’t confuse Chinese state assets abroad, which are part of their global trade strategy, with assets owned abroad by individual Chinese.

ostritch
Member
ostritch

Why not? They are part of the same strategy, same country-company, same plan for global dominance. How you fare in China depends on your status and currency in government. Looks at Mr Wu. He isn’t anyone anymore so Anbang’s assets can be confiscated by the Chinese government. Who is to say that his company was that “dangerous” to the Chinese economy anyway? The same government officials who are confiscating it?

Just me
Guest
Just me

I tend to agree with the points raised by Ostritch. Unless it is impossible to fix it, the Chinese will do their utmost to “look good” on the outside.

Best place on meth
Member
Best place on meth

… “look good” on the outside”

Just like the shoddy products they sell all over the world.

ostritch
Member
ostritch

“The first was its method of raising cash. Anbang sold high-yielding, short-term investment products in the guise of insurance, turning what should have been the safest corner of the financial system.”

Goddamnit. If these guys can turn the insurance business into a casino then there’s no way they’re goign to have trouble getting around Carole James.

kabloona
Member
kabloona

Carole James isn’t the one doing the thinking……she’s the one doing the “reading”…..

Diadora
Guest
Diadora

Looking forward to seeing a hot pink lambo on the auction block!

KickThemOut
Member
KickThemOut

Just head to bullwhip and bpom basement. they have it all ready for you.

southseacompany
Member
southseacompany

“Highest number of undeclared properties are in downtown Vancouver”, Vancouver Courier

http://www.vancourier.com/real-estate/highest-number-of-undeclared-properties-are-in-downtown-vancouver-1.23182797

“The city estimates there are more than 25,000 empty or under-utilized homes in Vancouver, which could help house those having trouble finding affordable homes to rent.”

southseacompany
Member
southseacompany

“Central banks hesitant to aggressively tighten policy amid economy’s recovery”, Globe & Mail

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/central-banks-turning-off-the-taps-risks-parching-the-global-economys-recovery/article38085170/

“Major central banks such as the U.S. Federal Reserve, the Bank of England and the Bank of Canada have already raised interest rates, while the European Central Bank is moving ever closer to unwinding its own ultra-easy monetary policy. So far, those banks have been reluctant to move rapidly, instead leaving the monetary taps open to try to drive up stubbornly low inflation and maintain growth.”

“”The danger is that we end up stoking bubbles which ultimately have even more disastrous long-term consequences,” said Peter Dixon at Commerzbank.”

KickThemOut
Member
KickThemOut

China seizes control of Anbang Insurance as chairman prosecuted:
https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/china-insurance-regulator-takes-control-023140026.html

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

yeah, i must have missed that one…

KickThemOut
Member
KickThemOut

Just like you missed the housing market for the last 10 years. But don’t worry, as long as you learn from your mistakes and work extremely hard to improve yourself, it’s never too late to start.

bestplaceonearth
Guest
bestplaceonearth

Bears believe that NDP policies would yield them a house with a big yard, without having to work.

Just me
Guest
Just me

Actually, the bears are the only ones to work and pay taxes on their earnings. The idle profiteers are the land and home owners in Vancouver. Owning a home earned more than a full time job in Vancouver last year.

High time these idle speculators start paying taxes like everyone else.

Specuskeptic
Member

I’m especially looking forward to renting your basement suite and smoking all my legal medicinal cannabis. You’ll have no recourse as it’s be legal and medicinal. High times are good times. I’ll also enjoy having it paid for as the MSP was just cancelled and now it’ll be covered by you.

[takes hit off blunt] Thanks KTO (Space) and BPOE

#ifyoucanteattherichsmokem LOL

Laibach
Member
Laibach

Hi bullwhip, having space to teach you the life wisdom is great. It all came from the same “curriculum”.

“We should never pretend to know what we do not know, we should “not feel ashamed to ask and learn from people below” and we should listen carefully to the views of the cadres at the lower levels. Be a pupil before you become a teacher; learn from the cadres at the lower levels before you issue orders… What the cadres at the lower levels say may or may not be correct, after hearing it, we must analyze it. We must heed the correct views and act upon them… Listen also to the mistaken views from below, it is wrong not to listen to them at all. Such views, however, are not to be acted upon but to be criticized.”

https://www.marxists.org/reference/archive/mao/works/red-book/ch10.htm

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

he should use this in his PoF profile. obviously what he has been using hasn’t worked out too well..

Lost,... but not leased
Guest
Lost,... but not leased

Re: Anbang

Sounds like a classic Greek Tragedy..
Started in 2004…and grew rapidly ..collapsing in 2018.

Seems to indicate China’s growth was ala Wild West style..little if any oversight or regulation.
Similar to Japanese firms in the 1980’s.

As others have noted, Anbang is likely tip of the iceberg.
Many of us had suspicions that something like this was lurking behind the scenes.
Stories like different companies using the same assets as collateral verified concerns……on par with fractional reserve banking.

These ponzi schemes are reliant on growth, inflation and new suckers…seems like the entire Chinese economy was built on this shifting sand foundation.

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

anbang is the tip of the iceberg

i suspect meetings such as this have been and currently are being conducted in corp boardrooms all over the world right now
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UOYi4NzxlhE

the question is who will blink and charge out of the gates first? i say this is a prime opportunity the US gangster bankers to start a thermite powered flash fire, short the market all the way down, blame china for all of it, then buy everything back on the cheap

just me
Guest
just me
Just me
Guest
Just me

In other news: you cannot make an omelet without breaking eggs.

KickThemOut
Member
KickThemOut

Yes, you have to break some eggs….some bear eggs.

Best place on meth
Member
Best place on meth

Bears don’t lay eggs.

What the fuck do they teach you in that shithole you came from?

Specuskeptic
Member
patriotz
Member

Tha said he may now have to defer his property taxes until he sells his house or he and his wife die and it comes out of their estate. It’s an option he hasn’t used before and that he resents having to consider.

So this crybaby is complaining that he will have to defer property taxes at a rate of under 1%, subsidized by the taxpayer, and he might get a few $100K less from his multimillion $ gains on this house? It’s so true, it’s the wealthy and fortunate who feel they’re the most hard done by.

KickThemOut
Member
KickThemOut

You could have bought that house for $370K 30 years but you didn’t. Now you are crying how unfair it is you aren’t living in it and enjoying the gains, so you have gov’t take it away by force. Seems like you & your ilks are the problems, not this professor who worked for 40 years educating ungrateful bastards like your children.

Just me
Guest
Just me

Exactly. The guy is a multimillionaire bunt he is complaining about paying a little more in taxes.

This is the point we should make to our politicians. Homeowners have gotten used to have a massively appreciating asset on which they pay almost no taxes. Time to make taxes more even across different types of capital, and relieve pressure on distortionary labor taxation.

A bit more money for people who work, a bit less for idle homeowners who idly sit on houses while they appreciate.

/dev/null
Member
/dev/null

So, sorry, trying to catch up here. Buyers who bought recently, after years of increasingly public warnings that Vancouver’s real estate was overvalued, might now be underwater on mortgages? If that’s it then color me unsympathetic.

KickThemOut
Member
KickThemOut

Bears being priced out of housing markets, even after a 50% crash, despite years of caring advices from bull? Color me unsympathetic.

Specuskeptic
Member

I know you gave advices, but they were most definitely not caring. “Caring” is not a word I associate with what you present to this discussion board.

Let’s just try to keep it slightly real there KTO.

Shut It Down Already (original)
Guest
Shut It Down Already (original)

Does anybody recall which bears capitulated last year? I think there were a couple of them.

Burnabonian
Guest
Burnabonian

““If there are people underwater, as long as your payments happen, it doesn’t matter,” said Davidoff. ”

Hahahahha yes there are no other negative consequences to owing more on an asset than it is worth.

None whatsoever.

Lost,... but not leased
Guest
Lost,... but not leased
Re Garth Turner.. Again, I will play Devil’s Advocate… Yeah, we know Garth is a HAM denier, and gets pissed off with some of our media ( ie Douglas Todd ). However many posters on is sight do get their posts published with links to the scandals that are unfolding. I once posted an invite to BC to see things first hand. However, it seems that many here in BC really haven’t done much more than a surficial analysis. The NDP is juggling too many balls in the air, too many scenarios to keep track of. IMHO, Garth’s analysis is one of the better ones, its less wishy- washy. He bluntly states that if BC RE crashes 50%…98% of the population would still not be able to by a SFH. PS of course he has something to sell…..his whole gig… Read more »
KickThemOut
Member
KickThemOut

The sad part is that he’s still more right than the smartest bears on this blog.

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

CNBC Video: Chinese regulator seizes control of Anbang Insurance
https://www.cnbc.com/video/2018/02/23/chinese-regulator-seizes-control-of-anbang-insurance.html?play=1

>>> so it would seem the powers that be have moved beyond lying and covering up what is really going on and have resorted to attempts at damage control and effectively bailing out major institutions to supposedly calm people’s nerves. we’ll see who blinks first. markets move at warp speed now. there isnt enough room for everyone to pile out the doorway all at once and the ones who do manage to dodge the first obstacle will then be faced with the predicament that there wont be enough life jackets to go around too. i highly doubt these co’s will be able to sell in an orderly fashion while the rest of the world looks on and does nothing

KickThemOut
Member
KickThemOut

lazy copy cat…old news.

Laibach
Member
Laibach

Great, PRC now officially owns core Vancouver downtown beside being the largest provider of seniors care…

Anbang finalized its $1 billion-plus purchase of the Bentall Centre in downtown Vancouver in 2016. However, both the federal and provincial opposition health critics, among others, have raised issues about overseeing the standard of care that Retirement Concepts will provide under Anbang ownership. There is also the question of how the deal met current requirements set by the Investment Canada Act.

http://vancouversun.com/business/local-business/five-things-anbangs-1-billion-purchase-of-b-c-s-biggest-seniors-care-provider

Just me
Guest
Just me

And then some people claim we should not vet acquisitions by Chinese companies!

One such expert is a professor at the Institute for Asian Research at UBC. He claims that we worry too much about Chinese companies buying Canadian assets. Then, this happens and a foreign government owns large chunks of real estate (as well as retirement homes and the companies that run them).

Specuskeptic
Member

Anbang was mentioned in this May 2017 but from Thinkpol. Interesting how this is unfolding…
https://thinkpol.ca/2017/05/05/bc-liberals-sold-our-province-to-china-and-pocketed-the-proceeds/

Just me
Guest
Just me

“What would Christy Clark do when she gets $616 million from the federal government to improve your provinces public transit infrastructure and create jobs in the process?

She would naturally send the money and the jobs to China[8]
Never mind the fact that we have great Canadian bus manufacturers like New Flyer or Nova Bus. And Premier Clark defended the decisions saying it’s all about doing what’s best for taxpayers. BC Liberal logic dictates that siphoning off our tax money out of our economy and funnelling it to China is going to help the taxpayers.”

Just me
Guest
Just me

BC Liberal government approved the sale of the largest provider of retirement homes to Chinese conglomerate Anbang Insurance, who are under investigation in the US for ties to the Chinese state[7].

Health advocates are crying foul.

“It’s not just money and business,” Adam Lynes-Ford of the BC Health Coalition said. “It’s about inherent values in the way we provide care, it’s about taking care of the elders of our society, and providing the best possible care for their well-being – not profit. Handing that over to a multinational of which we know very little, with the province unconcerned about learning their ownership and their intentions, raises serious questions.”“

Laibach
Member
Laibach

Heavily snowing now. With all tax changes impacting astronauts, students, housewives, homemakers, etc expect heavy plunderage and bloody shovel fights over SALT these days. It will be dog eat dog salt shitshow, Yulin festival at the Shaughnessy.

Hyper-mega-Bull
Member
Hyper-mega-Bull

if it’s not free it’s not worth fighting for.

HAM isn’t going to spend money and do work so that the foreign devil delivery person doesn’t break his neck.

KickThemOut
Member
KickThemOut

So you are the sicko that adopted from SPCA, given written promise to take care of it for the rest of its natural life, and then promptly ate it at the first chance? Fucking sick. This is what this once great country has become under the Libturds Trudeaus.

Best place on meth
Member
Best place on meth

God damned freeloaders.

KickThemOut
Member
KickThemOut

Be prepared for more scum cheating rapists, who does unspeakable things to 8 months old baby, coming to Canada after Trudeau’s visit. Trudeau welcomes them all! Sell out to the highest bidder. Oracle might be right after all and his Surrey cardboard tinderbox might actually double in value.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/sarai-trudeau-atwal-meeting-1.4548705

KickThemOut
Member
KickThemOut

A chill casts over Vancouver RE? A sign of the coming prophecy?

https://globalnews.ca/news/4043258/snow-on-friday-snowfall-warning-b-c/

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

it would be a sign if that monstrosity located at Westminster and no 6 suddenly collapsed into a sinkhole

KickThemOut
Member
KickThemOut

Translink to buy more skytrain cars…get ready to bend over for some serious hardcore ass ripping via road pricing. just the way BPOM & Co love it.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/skytrain-capacity-announcement-1.4549128

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

well, we know you love all that ass ripping fun that goes on in mom’s basement, so lucky you…

KickThemOut
Member
KickThemOut

From your own personal experience? Had no idea you enjoy hanging in Meth’s moldy basement so much. At least he’s saving money from not having to pay rent to his mommy dearest?

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

it would also appear that a disproportionate # of these cars will be allocated to the newest portion of the system, the Cda Line, so lucky you…

Shut It Down Already (original)
Guest
Shut It Down Already (original)

Disproportionate by what measure? You really should consider telling Translink about their error.

patriotz
Member

Clearly disproportionate by number of stations and route mileage. However the Canada Line may well need a bigger boost in capacity than the other lines.

Of course this question wouldn’t have arisen in the first place if two incompatible systems hadn’t been built.

Shut It Down Already (original)
Guest
Shut It Down Already (original)

Exactly. Number of stations and route length are both irrelevant. It’s about (relative) future ridership.

ostritch
Member
ostritch

Vancouver and Richmond will feel like one municipality in a few short years. One neighbourhood after another going up along Cambie, the River and into Richmond.

KickThemOut
Member
KickThemOut

More proof of heartless locusts in this country, eating a pet adopted from SPCA! This is an absolute heinous act, you can’t sick lower than this! This is what happens when Libturds took power and started eroding absolute moral code, and replacing it with a relative moral code and “acceptance”. We allowed sales of animal meat unfit for consumption in the name of culture acceptances and welcome. This is the end result!

https://bc.ctvnews.ca/person-who-adopted-pig-then-ate-it-didn-t-break-law-spca-says-1.3816460

Strata Hacker
Guest
Strata Hacker
As usual, the bears misinterpret the future based on their personal wish projection rather than reality. Anbang = huge buying opportunity for Van Re, not collapse as the dumb bears wish-project. Here is why: It’s well known amongst people who actually know how to make money that China’s way of dealing with crisis is to throw mass amounts of money at any problem that arises. THat is the opposite of what happened with Bear Sterns where liquidity got constrained and eventually Lehman failed. And guess what happens in Van Re when China starts throwing mass money around to save their system? Check real estate prices in Jan 2016 when this happened last. THat is what happens next. China is going to ramp up liquidity and a good chunk off that gets siphoned off into Van Re. Ain’t no FBT gonna… Read more »
Just me
Guest
Just me

I tend to agree that this is a distinct possibility. We will have to see whether they will try to keep it within China this time. Last time they realized that people were running away with the money. They might not make the same mistake twice.

ostritch
Member
ostritch

Omg! You could be right. Maybe that’s why everything around me has been selling at insane prices over the last two,weeks. And a friend of mine just got an unsolicited offer on his 850 sq ft apt with a view from some random Chinese guy. OMG. Not 2014-2017 all over again.!

Strata Hacker
Guest
Strata Hacker

Further on the Spec tax:

I think I understand now: this is Eby’s understanding of speculation based on what is going on in Point Grey. Chinese buying mega $$$ mansions and leaving them empty.

But that is not the actual type of speculation that affects ordinary folks. Even if that Point Grey mansion falls 80% it will still never be affordable for the regular guy.

House hoarding by BC Boomers is the real speculation that keep you and I from owning a home. Those people are hoarding houses, exploiting renters, screwing up the lives of the next generation with no regard.

THat is the speculation that comprises 75%+ of our market. Eby’s Point Grey China empty house billionaires are irrelevant…

Which is precisely why the tax targets them. Like I said, hope shovelled to desperate renters.

Just me
Guest
Just me

The tax affects both mansions and regular homes. There is no way out of it, if they implement it correctly.

James
Guest
James

Apparently doesn’t affect most 2nd plus homes at all.

James
Guest
James

A local boomer can own 49 houses and leave them empty. No tax. And doesn’t have to declare rental income. Safe from CRA and cap gains.

ostritch
Member
ostritch

Huh.??? How do you figure?

Sebastien
Member
Sebastien

Actually, no.

The way the tax works now is that 48 of 49 of the boomer’s houses with be taxed 2% each. He’ll need to make an incredible amount of taxable income to offset all the spec tax that’ll he pay.

Someone in BC t who doesn’t get a T4 will be treated like an astronaut wife.

Bestplaceonearth
Guest
Bestplaceonearth

Yep, freeloaders always support this kind of unfair taxes. Freeloaders also call the homeowners to change their lifestyles, down size to a shoeboxes, just so they can get a free piece of it. This kind of mentality won’t go far anywhere.

Lost,... but not leased
Guest
Lost,... but not leased

House hoarding by Boomers ?

Sorry, but in our circle of family and friends, long time BC residents, not seeing it. Many own their ” one of ” homes or condos.
What I see is a lot of RE sitting dark….for weeks..months…typical signs of HAM .

Pissing matches with boomers is not constructive, nor justified…many of them have children caught up in the affordability issue. Then we dump on them as living in parents basement. The real dumb ones were those that bought into the current housing market and are at risk of going underwater.

Time will tell if NDP either fixes things, or exacerbates the collapse.

Prior to the budget, signs were quite clear a correction had started..by more natural forces..Gov’t intervention almost by definition and design usually f*cks things up royally.

ostritch
Member
ostritch

Never noticed a correction here. Not in real housing like condos townhouses.

Specuskeptic
Member

I see the whole budget as an attempt to address issues around our growing reliance on rentiers for economic growth

“In reality, it is precisely the other way around. In reality, it is the waste collectors, the nurses, and the cleaners whose shoulders are supporting the apex of the pyramid. They are the true mechanism of social solidarity. Meanwhile, a growing share of those we hail as “successful” and “innovative” are earning their wealth at the expense of others. The people getting the biggest handouts are not down around the bottom, but at the very top. Yet their perilous dependence on others goes unseen. Almost no one talks about it. Even for politicians on the left, it’s a non-issue.”

It’s an issue now 🙂

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/mar/30/wealth-banks-google-facebook-society-economy-parasites

Lost,... but not leased
Guest
Lost,... but not leased

Implication is NDP supporters…..or ones they are targetting is the renter/pot smoking/ borderline communists .(……ain’t stereotypes wonderful ? )

One would be surprised how many NDP supporters are well off…likely have revenue properties, recreational properties,..ie vested in Real Estate etc. and will be royally pissed off with this budget.

NDP strategy may be to get the dirty work done now before the next election in 3 years, but their track record usually means there will be another ICBC…..ALR…..Fast Ferry……Bingogate…bacskstab the sitting Premier …..photo radar…..new Patullo bridge = closed shop…. etc.etc.

YVR
Guest
YVR

The NDP were forced into these housing measures. Clearly from the time they formed government they planned on kicking the can down the road. Maybe they were hoping prices would remain flat or trend down and Weaver would keep his mouth shut. Well prices went up 27% year over year, inventory went down, rental supply tightened, sentiment that housing was the biggest issue with voters went form 36% to 50% in 5 months and Weaver was making a press release on housing every week. This budget was crafted in the last couple of weeks. They flip flopped. That is why they don’t even have a plan for the 2% spec tax after supposedly planning this for years. More like 2 weeks.

Lost,... but not leased
Guest
Lost,... but not leased
Question is..was the NDP obligated to do a budget at this time. Maybe a budget in say June would have pulsed the market and we would have a totally different budget. Garth Turners last post stated the B.C. NDP did NOT model their budget proposals….which makes one wary at least on the analytical side. Is it fair to say the NDP ‘s budget is subjective and full of holes..pandering to the least informed radical facet ? As I have stated previously..has the NDP created the dreaded death knell of UNcertainty ? If any of us had the cash to buy RE…..would we ?…or let the SHTF……the dust settle.and start vultching when the bottom is reached. Could the market collapse to the point that the old metrics apply…ie house prices are approx. 3 X’s average annual income ???….rent = X %… Read more »
YVR
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YVR

They had to do the budget at that time. They had promised their housing plan at the budget. I believe initially the NDP housing plan at budget was 100% a supply plan. Weaver forced them to implement demand initiatives. They scrambled at the last minute and came up with what we got. At this point it will be up to the details of the 2% spec tax on the impact.

Selective Memory
Guest
Selective Memory

For years leading up to the election the NDP was increasingly outspoken on housing. They said they would take action in the current budget, and when that budget arrived it was overflowing with measures entirely in line with what they said they would do.

Yet somehow in your mind this was forced on the government by Andrew Weaver?

Your partisan hatred of the NDP makes you stupid.

Name
Guest
Name

YVR has egg on his face since he was predicting no housing measures would be in the budget. The NDP delivered and now he looks like a fool trying to dig out of the hole he dug for himself.

YVR
Guest
YVR

I was just letting you know what the NDP said they were going to do since getting elected. I had no idea they were lying. I should have known better. It is the NDP after all.

YVR
Guest
YVR

You must have missed the 8 months between the election and budget. Horgan stated repeatedly they would protect home owners equity and not target foreign buyers. All the while Weaver is stating they should target foreign buyers and take other measure to lower RE prices. Then the NDP come out with a budget which targets foreign buyers and they state they are trying to lower RE prices. That is the definition of a flip flop. And yes pressure from Andrew Weaver is a big part of that flip flop.

Best place on meth
Member
Best place on meth

“Horgan stated repeatedly they would protect home owners equity and not target foreign buyers.”

You’re still lying, YVRacle.

YVR
Guest
YVR

Horgan Nov 16, 2017

“Housing is a critical component of many people’s equity and their retirement prospects, and we want to make sure we don’t adversely affect the marketplace,””You think about how the foreign buyers tax was pretty much developed in two months. That may not be a particular great policy avenue to pursue … given the kind of impact it did or did not have.”

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/horgan-udi-talk-november-2017-1.4404369

Name
Guest
Name

Keep digging HA HA!

patriotz
Member
“Horgan stated repeatedly they would protect home owners equity and not target foreign buyers.” November 16, 2017: Horgan said his government is looking at expanding the foreign buyers’ tax beyond Metro Vancouver, as well as a provincial strategy to tackle affordability. “We don’t want to solve a problem in one area and have it emerge in another. And that means, I think, a province-wide approach to this,” he said. “We don’t want to solve a problem in one area and have it emerge in another. And that means, I think, a province-wide approach to this,” he said. “But the issues in Prince Rupert and Prince George are not the issues in Penticton and Princeton. Similarly, Vancouver Island and the Lower Mainland have particular challenges, but we want to make sure we’re doing this in a comprehensive way.” B.C. government considers… Read more »
YVR
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YVR

Carol James November 25, 2017

British Columbians are proud to welcome thousands of newcomers each year who help strengthen our province.”

Jan 16, 2018

B.C. premier rejects Green call for foreign buyers ban days before Asia visit

YVR
Guest
YVR

Maybe it was China telling Horgan to get lost after he went begging for real estate investors that changed his mind.

patriotz
Member

“B.C. premier rejects Green call for foreign buyers ban days before Asia visit”

And two months after Horgan said he was looking at expanding the FBT. The Green party did not advocate a foreign buyer ban during the election campaign. They advocated an expanded FBT (province wide 30%) similar to what the NDP implemented. Weaver did not explain why he changed his position or how he would make up for the missing revenue. .

And immigrants aren’t foreign buyers.

YVR
Guest
YVR

First off a province wide 30% is not the same as a 20% on select areas. Second the change came 8 months too late. Third, Weaver astutely looked a New Zealand’s new government who implemented the foreign buyers ban on day 1. Had the NDP done that alone we would not have seen prices rise 27% year over year. That 27% rise which I will add is probably the biggest price gain in dollar terms for condos in Canadian RE history was under the NDPs watch. Hardly something to be proud of.

patriotz
Member

And what is Weaver saying right now?

Weaver said that without clear goals in place, there’s a risk the market could abruptly crash. “Let the air come out slowly so the market can stabilize over time. This is what we’re hoping to see an outcome with, but we’re not getting any direction in that regard,” he said.

Maybe Weaver, like Superman, has a secret identity with an opposite personality. Or maybe the idea that “Weaver forced them to implement demand initiatives” is just a desperate fantasy.

Just me
Guest
Just me

I read the budget carefully.
This is not something you put together in a rush. The housing section is fairly sophisticated, with complementary and fine-tuned measures.
Those measures are like a glass box, there is way to escape. They were crafted to capture the money brought into Vancouver by the Chinese,
Whether that will be enough top lower prices remains to be seen.

Lost,... but not leased
Guest
Lost,... but not leased

Have a link ?

….Thanks !

Reeper
Guest
Reeper
patriotz
Member

http://vancouvercondo.info/2017/10/friday-free-for-all-october-20th-2017.html#comments

“Expect the foreign buyers tax to be canceled in the next budget. The only question now is if the NDP issue refunds to all those that paid the tax.”

“The NDP will use the race card when they cancel it though.”

YVR
Guest
YVR

Horgan pretty much states he was intending on canceling it right here:

”You think about how the foreign buyers tax was pretty much developed in two months. That may not be a particular great policy avenue to pursue … given the kind of impact it did or did not have.”

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/horgan-udi-talk-november-2017-1.4404369

patriotz
Member

“Horgan pretty much states he was intending on canceling it right here”

LOL!!! That quote isn’t from Horgan, it’s from Andy Yan of SFU! Did you even read the article?

Andy Yan, director of Simon Fraser University’s City Program, says the government has good reasons to take things slowly.

“You think about how the foreign buyers tax was pretty much developed in two months. That may not be a particular great policy avenue to pursue … given the kind of impact it did or did not have.”

Watch Horgan and Robinson talk about demand at UDI, Nov 17, 2017, 48:00 in this video:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c_IODTgZr5o

patriotz
Member

Just heard a summary the new plan and it looks like the GreenDPers forgot about all those promisses to make housing more affordable. Just as I predicted. They will try to keep the bubble going. No expansion of foreign buyers tax, no 2% foreign speculators tax, no increase in property purchase tax, no capital gains tax increase for principal residence, no provisions to stop money laundering and no renters grant. But they did remember to increase carbon taxes and opose all mega projects that create jobs. I guess we can just hope their incompetance on running the economy will crash housing

Note that the poster makes identical predictions with regard to the Greens and NDP. Not too consistent with Weaver riding to the rescue at the 11th hour.

http://vancouvercondo.info/2017/05/what-does-a-green-ndp-government-mean-for-house-prices-in-vancouver-bc.html#comments

YVR
Guest
YVR

I would not put the Greens in the same category as the NDP. The GreenDP refers to a propped up NDP. Ultimately Horgan makes the decisions but Weaver (as we have just seen) has some influence. If Weaver was in power he would have reacted quicker, have taken more immediate action like in week one of eh legislature and as he has stated he would have gone much further. He would address the farm land issue, bare trusts and money laundering that the NDP have not done. He would also completely ban foreign buyers province wide. Under Weaver we would not have seen prices rise 27% year over year which is an NDP disgrace. No other word for it.

Lost,... but not leased
Guest
Lost,... but not leased

Re NDP 2018 budget.

Wonder how many may have wished to appeal their property assessments in hindsight after the Budget tabled ?..ie those around the $ 3 Million mark.

patriotz
Member

The higher rate applies only to the amount of assessment that exceeds $3Mil, so it makes little difference for those assessed slightly over $3 Mil.

Reeper
Guest
Reeper

Carol James interview from yesterday about the budget https://vimeo.com/257192218