Canada, data, economy, equity, prices

Toronto prices drop 12% as sales plunge

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101 Comments

Toronto is becoming a better and better investment as prices fall, you just need to buy when they’ve stopped falling. Right now they’re seeing quite a price drop.

Re-sale home prices in the Toronto region dropped 12.4 per cent, or about $110,000, year over year in February.

The average price fell to $767,818, from $875,983 for all housing categories, including detached, semi-detached, town homes and condos.

The number of sales also plunged nearly 35 per cent last month compared to Feburary 2017 — to 5,175 transactions from last year’s record 7,955, according to the latest statistics from the Toronto Real Estate Board (TREB) on Tuesday.

Read the full article here.

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bullwhip29

Debbie Arlene Anderson of Chilliwack, B.C, who worked as an “educator” at a group that taught people how to evade taxes has been sentenced to four-and-a-half years in jail and faces fines totalling $35,026.71, after evading $22,689.90 in income tax between 2005 and 2007
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/tax-evasion-educator-sentenced-to-4-years-in-jail-for-tax-evasion-1.4568959

>>> glad CRA is hard at work chasing after the big whales…

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Name

Here’s how the chineeze use finances to take over other countries …

https://app.tmxmoney.com/news/cpnews/article?locale=EN&newsid=f25632&mobile=false

i see similarities to canada …

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southseacompany

“Three real-life signs that interest rate hikes are already starting to bite”, Financial Post

http://business.financialpost.com/personal-finance/debt/these-charts-show-higher-canadian-rates-are-starting-to-bite

“Home sales in Toronto and Vancouver are slowing to start 2018, a sign that higher borrowing costs and new rules restricting access to mortgage financing may be starting to have an effect.”

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southseacompany

“Vancouver’s West Side real estate market experiencing major slowdown”, Georgia Straight

https://www.straight.com/news/1042331/vancouvers-west-side-real-estate-market-experiencing-major-slowdown

“Citing Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver statistics, Andrew Hasman & Associates is reporting that only 33 single-family houses have been sold on the West Side this year. That’s down from 94 sales last year, or 65 percent.”

“There’s also a 21.48-month supply of homes on the market on the West Side, up from a 6.04-month supply last year.”

“But for some reason, the average price of a West Side house this year still remains significantly higher than last year: $4.108 million to $3.745 million.”

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Whistler or Bust?

That means nothing as long as the prices don’t drop.

Its like we are in some Bizzaro world where economics don’t matter!

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Doomcouver

You can’t have this insane of a run-up without sellers being adamant about getting their selling price. Prices are always set at the margins though, and in a dead market it only takes a few desperate sellers to cause a panic.

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Shut It Down Already (original)

Low sales means the average is noisy.

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kabloona

Rising prices on falling volume = crash!

🙂

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kabloona

“Vancouver condo developer one step closer to extradition” 😉 http://vancouversun.com/news/local-news/vancouver-condo-developer-one-step-closer-to-extradition-on-us-fraud-allegations 🙂 “A longtime Vancouver condo developer was briefly taken into custody Thursday morning after a ruling by a B.C. Supreme Court judge moved him one step closer to extradition on criminal charges in the US, a few hours before a B.C. Court of Appeal judge decided the accused fraudster should be released on bail pending an appeal. While Thursday’s extradition hearing concerned the alleged conduct of Vancouver developer Mark John Chandler a decade ago in California, court also heard details of his more recent real estate dealings back in B.C., and of a new, ongoing police investigation…. …Today, all 91 units of Murrayville House in the Township of Langley sit empty, more than two years after its originally anticipated move-in date. Some homebuyers have suffered personal and financial hardship as… Read more »

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Doomcouver

Wish that was a story about Michael Ching getting extradited back to China. Sadly I have a feeling we’ll never be able to deport him. http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/mo-yeung-michael-ching-vancouver-developer-accused-of-embezzlement-in-china-1.3058215

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bullwhip29

deport? lol… actually his business going “gang”busters, full steam ahead from what i can see.

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Best place on meth

“Trump Agrees To Meet With Kim Jong Un”

This guy is fucking amazing.

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Doomcouver

Isn’t he worried the North Koreans will murder him? How the hell are they going to keep Trump from being assassinated?

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Dave

BigMacs. Do the summit under the Golden Arches and get Kim addicted to McDonalds. We’ll open one for him if he stops the BS. North Korea’s biggest problem is feeding people and nobody does that better than McDonalds.

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bullwhip29

on what terms though…?

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kabloona

Okay, in case you haven’t seen this…..this is what *doesn’t* get you arrested in Richmond, BC…..

😉

https://twitter.com/Schtaunkhauser/status/971878234215206913

I just love the RCMP…..

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Name

This is the most disgusting despicable display of assault I have ever seen in the area and this guy should be charged immediately with assault and attempted murder. What are the cops waiting for? This is why the public doesn’t trust the cops.

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Road Warrior

We all know the media blow out that would have occurred if the roles were reversed here.

Need to drop a great big can of RAID on Lichmond.

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Road Warrior

Forgot to add that the Lichmond RCMP wold probably have tasered the little old lady to death if they had been there when this occurred.

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Whistler or Bust?

Attempted murder? A little much don’t you think? She wasn’t even injured.

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backwardsevolution

Whistler or Bust? – of course his intent was not to murder the lady, but his intent WAS to cause injury. That’s why he raised his leg and kicked her as hard as he could.

Check out the damage you can do with a hard kick to the stomach. Check out “detached spleen”. How about broken ribs, internal bleeding. You do your own research.

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Best place on meth

Who cares if he’s retarded, he’s a menace to society.

Lock him up.

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bullwhip29

they only cited him as being “developmentally challenged” to diffuse the situation. no other details provided. if he was known to be a problem, why was he there by himself at that specific time? anyway, he certainly seemed to be well groomed, able to carry on with a conversation and make calculated, split second decisions (albeit the wrong ones) in the video. imho this was handled/managed in this fashion to appease a certain ethnic group (or perhaps specific individuals with influence), no if’s, and’s or but’s about it. you guys can say what you want, but i bet some time down the road his identity will become known and some of the blanks will get filled in. in the meantime i call BS on the whole fiasco

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Laibach

Fuck, why? Are we all that far gone down to the shitter?

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Doomcouver

Unsurprisingly the city was considering getting rid of the RCMP. They’re pretty useless in Richmond. Yet again however Richmond city hall is proving they’re even more useless as they were unable to do anything other than get fat and rich off HAM and our housing bubble. https://thinkpol.ca/2018/02/14/richmond-city-official-flipping-condo-2x-within-year/

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bullwhip29

British Columbians could be facing gas at $2 to $3 per litre without Alberta oil
https://globalnews.ca/news/4071934/british-columbians-oil-ban-trans-mountain/

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kabloona

Sweeet….and I’m driving a V8. Oh, wait….

🙁

Crap…..

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Name

All those Alberta construction workers here driving on their Alberta plates and insurance should be forced to buy BC insurance then.

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Doomcouver

Forced to buy BC insurance at 300% markup hopefully. I say we just put armed guards at the provincial border and demand money to cross. Just call it an oil-price offset tax.

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Best place on meth

The cunt from Alberta is channeling her inner Putin, threatening us the way an enemy nation threatens it’s neighbors with war and destruction.

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Doomcouver

She’d better watch her ass Horgan doesn’t seem like a guy you want to screw with. You can tell from the election debates Horgan can get confrontational even if it’s politically damaging to him. She may live to regret her decision if we start imposing tolls on trucks from Alberta trying to get to the port of Vancouver. Considering Alberta is land-locked they should be more careful which neighbors they piss off.

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Whistler or Bust?

Horgan will be a footnote after the next election.

I hate the NDP but good for her calling out the bullshit! The NDP can’t decide which laws they choose to abide by.

I hope she shuts the taps off and Horgan has to answer for $2.00+/L gas

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patriotz

” The NDP can’t decide which laws they choose to abide by.”

Nor can Alberta. If BC doesn’t have legal jurisdiction over Trans Mountain Alberta doesn’t either.

Note also that most of the oil currently going through Trans Mountain goes to the US. BC gets only a fraction.

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backwardsevolution

“I hate the NDP.” Really? Who could have guessed that?

You must have really enjoyed the Krusty corruption party! She will go down as THE worst premier ever. Her and Campbell – pieces of sh*t who sold out the province.

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Road Warrior

I think it’s great.

Your little eco- dipshit is hamstrung by Climate Barbie in the Green party who’s pulling his strings. He’s about to find out just how much trouble he is in.

Cutting off the oil is just one of several things we can do to screw with BC, not that we can fuck the province up any more than it already it mind you, but we can really hurt the residents (voters) economically if push comes to shove.

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Bestplaceonearth

Thanks to those who voted the NDP.

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Bubble

Van West has 400 condos > $900,000.
You need a household income of $250,000 to buy such a condo.
Vancouver’s $68,000, not possible.

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See Saw

Exactly. And, finally a person on this site who mentions “local incomes” instead of relying on that Asian Invasion BS to prop things up.
This city will experience the biggest bust since the eatly 1980’s and then some.

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Shut It Down Already (original)

So you’re cherry picking expensive condos (a fraction of overall inventory) to compare against an average individual’s salary, assuming only 5% down? Uh huh.

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Just me

Virtually any 2 bed plus condo on the west side is above a million. Those below the million mark are of extremely low quality and only nominally two-bed plus.

So, yes: on the West side, any family with kids will have to fork out 1 million or much more than that for something that is just half decent.

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Shut It Down Already (original)

If want to talk about families then first of all you should start using family income. But then realize that not every family earns the average. Around half earn more (exactly half if we use the median). Many much more. Also consider that we’re seeing one of the largest ever transfers of wealth from one generation to another as parents help their offspring “get on the ladder”. And don’t forget how idiots are taking out HELOCs to use as downpayments on their second and subsequent properties. People are willing to make huge sacrifices due to FOMO. Did you really expect sanity during a feeding frenzy? There’s a reason it’s called a bubble.

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Just me

Sorry. Not even close to explaining the valuations we are seeing.

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Shut It Down Already (original)

What part of a bubble do you find so confusing?

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Just me

Let me get this right. Are you saying that people earning local incomes are not responsible for the massive and insane runup in prices? Incredible….after all we have posters on this site who keep banging on about greedy locals. Not sure how these locals leverage their local incomes to a multiple of 25: their bankers must have a lot of trust in them.

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Doomcouver

“Not sure how these locals leverage their local incomes to a multiple of 25”

It’s something called mortgage fraud, I’m sure you’ve heard of it before.

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patriotz

“You need a household income of $250,000 to buy such a condo.”

If you’re a boomer downsizing from a SFH, you don’t need any income at all.

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Just me

So the market for condos is driven by downsizers?

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paulb

New
196
Price Change
36
Sold
118
TI:8496

http://www.clivestevepaul.com

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Screwed

When will these idiots dry up?

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Spec

Are you talking about some of the posters on this board or those “Sold” numbers? 😉

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Screwed

Sold of course

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Doomcouver

I’d be morbidly curious to know how many of these were first time buyers. Has to be almost 0 at this point. The only thing supporting this market at this point is baby boomers swapping houses between each other.

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Shut It Down Already (original)

I’d say it’s a significant proportion. Go to an open house and tell us how many boomers you see. It won’t be many.

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bullwhip29

The B.C. government is accelerating funding for seismic upgrades to public schools with a special focus on the Richmond School District
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/earthquake-seismic-schools-accelerated-richmond-victoria-1.4568127

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Lost,... but not leased

Not sure if vultching is a wise move.

Until the olde metrics comeback, too risky…unless of course you want to buy something tangible, as opposed to fiat currency on deposit in banks close to insolvency(redundant).

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Bubble

Ownership Patterns of Single Family Homes Sales on the West Side Neighborhoods of the City of Vancouver: A Case Study
Andy Yan
https://www.slideshare.net/ayan604/ownership-patterns-of-single-family-homes-sales-on-the-west-side-neighborhoods-of-the-city-of-vancouver-a-case-study

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Bag it and tag it

That’s an old study but the first time I’ve looked at it in detail, and glad I did. Once you get over the $3mil mark, pretty much every west side house is bought buy chineeze.

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Name

that report really illustrates perfectly how we have been sold out to the corrupt chineeze by our own elected governments who we elected to serve us ….

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Best place on meth

Lowest incomes in the country, highest house prices by far. Interest rates the same coast to coast.

Yup, it’s the sino-vermin.

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Laibach

Of course it is exclusively locust infested territory but usual fuckthards will still keep shifting about “greedy locals”.

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Just me

True. And funny how the people who claim that interest rates alone are the culprit often ignore the evidence.

By the way, none of us has ever denied that interest rates play a massive role: in fact, in Vancouver, low mortgage rates have a stronger effect, as they allow Chinese speculator to leverage their seed money.

But the real source of trouble for Vancouver is clearly Chinese money. Take that out of the equation and see the market go back to more reasonable multiples of income.

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Just me

Yes. It does.

And thanks to Andy Yan for showing this in non-ambiguous ways. This is the best that can be done with the crappy data we have.

And you know why we don’t have good data: for years we have been told that there is nothing to study or examine. That blaming Chinese money is racist. That having these shady millionaires is good for the economy and we should not question things.

Look where these denials took us….the city is lost and will take a massive effort to re-establish a semblance of legality and rule of law.

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Just me

This study is extremely compelling. At the high end, the majority of houses were bought by people with clear links to China. It is extremely unusual that second or third generation kids have only Chinese names. These guys are from there, and they are moving their money en masse.

Also, if you look at the single owners’ stats, the share of housewives and students buying in their name alone is astounding.

How can the flat-earth believers ignore this and keep claiming that nothing is going on? This is colonization by millionaires. We are providing them safety deposit boxes for hiding their money from the Chinese communist regime. Some people are getting rich in the process. the majority of BC residents are losing big time.

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Laibach

We can’t go back in time and revert what’s been done unfortunately. Our leaders and law enforcers failed us epically because they haven’t been able to protect and defend something that was built over centuries and for what many died for, but they rather sold it to the riffraff. Only a major circumstantial change, either social (torches and pitchforks), political (radical populist party) or geopolitical (a showdown) can can get a disinsection , cleanup and recovery started, until then tough luck. As much as Oracle sounds “entertaining” he is simply right on many aspects.

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Laibach

Canada and Mexico to be exempt from U.S. tariffs on steel and aluminum

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/us-steel-aluminum-tariffs-canada-mexico-trump-1.4567230

Good news but look now how Chinese steel and aluminum will start proxying from Canada down to the US with a little help from our Mao’s admirers.

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bullwhip29

this is a conditional exemption. cleverly worded. freeland/trudeau have to show trump some love now but honestly they are damned if they do, damned if they dont…

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Best place on meth

Trump is just getting started on those fucking locusts.

This was the first shot, he’s going to turn those vermin into Swiss cheese.

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Doomcouver

Ooh man the Chinese are not going to want a trade war. With their shrinking GDP and massive credit bubble they’ll be totally screwed.

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Laibach

My assumption came as logical expectation given the parties involved.

Trump was concerned that Chinese steel was entering United States through Canada: source

http://www.cbc.ca/beta/news/politics/tariffs-canada-china-trump-trudeau-1.4568470

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bullwhip29

given how things are run in this country, who is to say that trump isn’t at least partly correct? imagine the $hitstorm that would ensue if these sorts of shenanigans were uncovered. but not to worry, the last time i checked there were no sketchy chinese operators and corrupt locals engaged in any type of unsavoury business activity

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Oracle

We need a shock to Canada system. Nafta must be terminated.

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See Saw

Puhleeze! You know squat about the RE market and now you’re weighing in on NAFTA? Such an idiot.

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Oracle

What a weirdo! What country you from? Let me guess.

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See Saw

BTW, Oracle, your alt-ego “friend” aka “Just me” is taking a break tonight is he?

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Oracle

STFU

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See Saw

You’re such a weirdo…and, that’s putting it mildly.

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Whistler or Bust?

Or you.

What is your MO?

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Lost,... but not leased

Article is all over the place..warning sign is real estate boards putting lipstick on the pig.

Could be a bull trap….sign of decline has suckers diving in, prices get a brief bump….then the inevitable collapse kicks in.

GT makes good points…people cheering on a collapse are ignorant…if SHTF everyone is affected.

In essence , in downturn, ownership is less likely as people have lost jobs…no downpayment, …no credit..doesn’t matter what house prices are.

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beelzebub

about time! looking to vultch

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Doomcouver

Don’t even think about buying yet, the sentiment is just STARTING to shift. The time to buy is when all the homeowners you know have been burned by the housing bubble, and it’s loathed as an asset class. We’ll get there soon.

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See Saw

We are now well underway with this correction. I think the downturn will be a swift vertical one with a lot of bumping along the bottom for years afterwards.

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Whistler or Bust?

Evidence in YVR?

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Best place on meth

I don’t want to buy, I just want to see the whole fucking thing burn down.

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Doomcouver

Some BPOM’s just want to watch the world burn……..

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Name

i’m ready to buy but not before 2020 that’ll be when most of the carnage is done. i work for a usa company with a branch in canada so i’m stable for work. the people who will be screwed are those who make their living in real estate.

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Doomcouver

Be prepared to wait longer than that. The unwinding may be slower due to sticky prices. If we get something similar to Japan’s housing bubble you may have to wait 5-10 years for the whole thing to play out.

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Strata Hacker

So deluded.

Canada is nothing like Japan. Shrinking population compared to open door flood of immigrants every year. What are you talking about? Just wish projections I guess.

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See Saw

Japan is its own special “case” Try Ireland, Spain, the US, etc.

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Shut It Down Already (original)

How about comparing population densities?

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Oracle

Another troll. FO

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Shut It Down Already (original)

Sound argument, creep.

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Oracle

Too many trolls here coupled with the naive who believe this kind of crap. Canada is open door for immigration and grandparents allowed in – only country that does this.

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Shut It Down Already (original)

The UK has a pathway for grandparents. But don’t let facts get in the way for once.

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Doomcouver

Canada’s seemingly “open door” policy on immigration isn’t as “open door” as you seem to think Oracle. We primarily let in immigrants we can exploit for taxation (aka. economic migrants). It’s different than the immigration policies of many other countries including the USA. A good example is how the USA has a “diversity lottery” when issuing green cards while Canada uses a comprehensive ranking system for our express entry program. It lets us discriminate against people that are too old, under-educated, lacking English or French language skills, or haven’t held a job in Canada before. What this means is our immigration numbers aren’t supportable if the jobs evaporate and the economy tanks. If the economy hits a really rocky patch, a net migration out of Canada is more likely.

https://www.canadavisa.com/comprehensive-ranking-system.html
https://www.cicnews.com/2015/08/canadian-immigration-policies-comparison-085861.html#gs.YyieGzg

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backwardsevolution

Doomcouver – the “diversity lottery” is what some people want to stop in the U.S. With no questions asked, if you win the lottery, in you come. Unbelievable. Some people are calling for a merit-based system like Canada’s. But the U.S. has a program that allows in “economic immigrants” too. I can’t remember the name of the program or the numbers involved, but these economic immigrants could essentially “buy” their way in, just like here. Then there’s the “Family Reunification” program (or what they’re calling “chain migration” in the U.S.) This is where you’re allowed to bring in your extended family members, no questions asked. Trump wants to cut immigration back to 600,000/year. If we followed in a proportionate manner, our numbers would drop down to 60,000/year. No way Canada should be bringing in over 300,000/year. Trump wants to cut… Read more »

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backwardsevolution

Strata Hacker – the immigration numbers will be decreased. It’s coming.

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Doomcouver

New OSFI rules and continually rising interest rates are going to shut the door on a lot of vultures that were waiting in the wings. If the price drop gets bigger, risk aversion will start to enter the public psyche of investors real soon. It’s ironic that Toronto had the biggest crash in the ’80s and may have the biggest crash in the country again. Vancouver’s reckoning is still coming…

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patriotz

“It’s ironic that Toronto had the biggest crash in the ’80s and may have the biggest crash in the country again. ”

Vancouver and Calgary had the big crashes in the 80’s, not Toronto. The big crash in Toronto was in the 90’s, although prices had started falling around 1989.

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xhistory

the article uses the verb ‘mash’, which is a clue to review Brian Ripley’s work
http://www.chpc.biz/

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Lost,... but not leased

On the ball…#1

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See Saw

More like “dropped the ball” if this is how you get your biggest kicks.

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