28% of Canadians say rate hike would cause bankruptcy

From southseacompany: this survey claims that more than a quarter of Canadians think that another rate increase would push them into bankruptcy.

The poll comes just days before an anticipated interest rate hike by the Bank of Canada and was conducted on behalf of MNP, a leading Canadian bankruptcy firm, between June 15 and June 19. The same poll found that 42% of Canadians say that if interest rates rise much more their financial well-being will be put in jeopardy.

The Bank of Canada has raised interest rates three times since last summer, and investors expect the central bank will boost its target for the overnight rate to 1.5% this Wednesday (July 11).

Read the full article here.

92 Comments on "28% of Canadians say rate hike would cause bankruptcy"

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Specuskeptic
Member

Income is also on the rise, so that may mitigate some of the downside of this news for those up against the wall, but where the rubber hits the road is hard to prognosticate. Someone also mentioned how problematic self-reporting polls are.

paulb
Member

New
232
Price Change
100
Sold
93
TI:12713

http://www.clivestevepaul.com

Specuskeptic
Member

I thought 12664 was the inventory peak? LOL Oracle…
http://vancouvercondo.info/2018/06/saturday-lets-do-a-free-for-all.html#comment-335299
I’ll give him one thing. He’s a great counter indicator.

Shut It Down Already (original)
Guest
Shut It Down Already (original)

We’re close to the peak. Check the historical graphs.

Specuskeptic
Member

Yes we are – in any normal year, inventory peaks right around now. 2012 and 2008 were exceptions. I’m curious how this season will play out.

Arrogant douche posts as though his words are fact, and that’s why my response was what it was.

Interesting times.

Shut It Down Already (original)
Guest
Shut It Down Already (original)

Inventory growth is slowing. This doesn’t appear to be an exceptional year yet.

Specuskeptic
Member

I tend to agree here.

yvr2zrh
Member

Based on my models, this year is trending somewhat like a normal year. We are quite low on sales but it would appear that the normal summer slow period will result in a reduction in inventory by the end of August which will recover in September. What we don’t know yet is what will happen because the sales are dropping and soon Y/Y prices will be down, will we start to see some unusual listing activity coupled with even lower sales?

Specuskeptic
Member

One thing that is new for this year is the amount of new construction.

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

Listen Mr. Panties in a knot. I can fucking post any way I like.

And we are at peak.

Best place on meth
Member
Best place on meth

You’re at peak liar.

Inventory is still growing, the numbers prove that.

Specuskeptic
Member

You’re arrogant, fact-deficient, and a fucking liar… but do continue to post. No-one here can stop you (even though they tried).

Also, special bonus points for recycling the “panties in a knot” trope.

Best place on meth
Member
Best place on meth

Because historical graphs prove we’re near the top, right clown?

Shut It Down Already (original)
Guest
Shut It Down Already (original)

They show that a rise in spring, a levelling off as we enter summer and a peak shortly afterwards has been the trend and that so far 2018 looks relatively normal from that perspective.

You can also use the archived posts here to find hysterical shrieks that the market is crashing as spring inventory builds every fucking year.

But of course you always know better.

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

Ok let’s play along, at this rate inventory will be 23,000 by Christmas and rise ever higher. By 2030, we should have inventory topping 600,000because this time it’s different. Past graphs can’t hold up because ” I FEEL it. ”

And on another note, since we raised rates 0.5% in the last little while, we should hit 50% at this rate. Be dabbed those homeowners. And this cycle is different.

You can’t make this shit up. Hahaha

Specuskeptic
Member

In addition to frequent lying, you seem also to be incapable of nuanced thought. We’ll just file that under “N” for “Not Surprised”

BubbleTea
Guest
BubbleTea

‘Dirty money’ is destroying Vancouver’s civic fabric—and causing lasting damage
Non-residents own roughly $45 billion worth of Metro Vancouver’s residential properties, and non-residents picked up one in five condominiums sold in Metro Vancouver over the past three years. That much is known. But Transparency International reckons about half of Vancouver’s west-side residences are owned by mystery trusts or shell companies.
https://www.macleans.ca/opinion/dirty-money-is-destroying-vancouvers-civic-fabric-and-causing-lasting-damage/

Lost...but not leased
Guest
Lost...but not leased

Good article…

Basically NDP farm team VISION f*cked up….

COV , especially with their blessed “charter” is a power unto itself and could have cut the BS of at the knees and set the template for rest of BC.

Horgan and Glegol Loberston should go back to what they do best…..(________________)

patriotz
Member

“COV , especially with their blessed “charter” is a power unto itself ”

Nonsense. CoV doesn’t even control its own police department.

Lost...but not leased
Guest
Lost...but not leased

Ok…patriotz….
……who does?

Lost...but not leased
Guest
Lost...but not leased

Bankruptcy..

See, I was right….as usual

……wait til we hit TI of 13,000….gets “quantum leap ” ugly !

Shut It Down Already (original)
Guest
Shut It Down Already (original)

13000 is ridiculously low. In fact, in other years that’s not been far off the low tide mark.

Lost...but not leased
Guest
Lost...but not leased

Ok SIDA
…dive in at the shallow end.

Best place on meth
Member
Best place on meth

AIDS is from the shallow end of the gene pool.

You know, the part that’s full of sludge and feces?

Lost...but not leased
Guest
Lost...but not leased

Point is ….forget past RE history….too many seem to think it will repeat/rhyme.

IMHO, we are in UNcharted waters and some VCI ers believe in quasi knee- jerk fashion that TI circa 2018 must be a far higher amount before SHTF.

There are too many “flashpoint”variables…. any one of which could catalyze a crash.
Even patriotz should know better……

Specuskeptic
Member

Yes – MOI is on the lower end of the middle round and so is listings. Sales, on the other hand, are as low as they’ve ever been and, when considering regional growth, 2008 sales of 2400 (give or take) is much better than 2018’s 2400 (or so) in relative terms.

Shut It Down Already (original)
Guest
Shut It Down Already (original)

Which is exactly why MOI is a great metric, being indendent of market size.

Specuskeptic
Member

Sales this low do indicate a vulnerability should even a small little upward blip in listings occur. MOI could move upward quickly.

Not making any predictions.

oncebittwiceshy
Guest
oncebittwiceshy

Meanwhile, in the condo market …

http://vancitycondoguide.com/vancouver-condo-inventory-trending-upwards/

“As of May 2018, there were over 35,000 apartments under construction, more than three standard deviations from the long term mean.”

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

Vancouver going beyond conserving buildings in Chinatown
https://vancouversun.com/business/local-business/vancouver-going-beyond-conserving-buildings-in-chinatown

>>> so, as the saying goes… “what’s your’s is mine and what’s mine is mine…”
well played indeed….

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

After a local barbecue fell under social media scrutiny for initially marketing the event as a fundraiser for Richmond First, the slate is now speaking up about the event…
http://www.richmond-news.com/election-2018/we-have-not-received-any-money-richmond-first-responds-to-farmland-owners-bbq-1.23365033

>>> whatever….

Lost...but not leased
Guest
Lost...but not leased

RE: Richmond News …

Seems to be succumbing to yellow journalism(no pun intended)…this non -story is embarassing.

When Richmond had another paper(Richmond Review)…they kept each other honest and balanced ….moreso in the LETTERS/OPINION section.

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29
bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

$3.5 million US to be dispersed to investors hit in B.C. Ponzi scheme, but hundreds of claims rejected
https://vancouversun.com/business/local-business/3-5-million-us-to-be-dispersed-to-investors-hit-in-b-c-ponzi-scheme-but-hundreds-of-claims-rejected

>>> what a total joke our so called regulators are…

Best place on meth
Member
Best place on meth
Best place on meth
Member
Best place on meth
Shut It Down Already (original)
Guest
Shut It Down Already (original)

It’s quite easy when you ignore all the losses.

Make Vancouver Canadian Again
Guest
Make Vancouver Canadian Again
CBC article about Jagmeet Singh’s need for a seat in Parliament comes to the conclusion that his best shot would be in a by-election in Burnaby-South. If that is the case, Jagmeet Singh may have a very short career as leader of the NDP. I predict that Singh would lose in a Burnaby-South by-election. I predict that Singh will not at all resonate with voters in the Lower Mainland region. I get the impression that Singh knows very little about BC. He probably thinks Canada stops at the Rocky Mountains, like Mulcair did (who literally once described Canada as “from the Atlantic to the Rockies”). The biggest headline he made out here was when he praised Gregor Robertson’s track record for being a very progressive mayor. If Gregor Robertson’s performance as mayor is Jagmeet Singh’s idea of ‘progress’, I want… Read more »
Make Vancouver Canadian Again
Guest
Make Vancouver Canadian Again
The article points out Burnaby South is the epicentre of the Kinder Morgan pipeline debate. Actually, Burnaby-North is where all that action is. The main issue in Burnaby South is all the low rise rental apartments being torn down to build condos marketted to offshore investors, displacing thousands of locally employed people, while the mayor of that city looks on with indifference. Does Jagmeet Singh know anything about this? Does he know anything about the issues of the Lower Mainland and Burnaby-South? Does he realise this is not Southern Ontario and this is also not like the rest of Western Canada? I think he doesn’t have the first clue about this region. Given how important BC is to the NDP nationally, you would think they would pick a leader with stronger connections to BC. Two in a row now who… Read more »
Make Vancouver Canadian Again
Guest
Make Vancouver Canadian Again

I cannot post a link to article without going into moderation limbo, so the title of the CBC article is: “NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh won’t have a free pass if he runs in a byelection” by Eric Grenier. You can google it if you want to.

patriotz
Member

“like Mulcair did (who literally once described Canada as “from the Atlantic to the Rockies”). ”

I challenge you to back that up. Google comes up with no evidence Mulcair ever said that. I’m not a big fan of his, but he’s a very intelligent man and he doesn’t say dumb things.

As for Singh, he does have a lot of contacts in BC, which is one of the reasons why he won the NDP’s at large leadership vote. I don’t think he should have become leader so don’t ask me to defend him. My guess is that he will decline to run in Burnaby South, the real reason being that if he lost he’d probably have to resign as leader.

Make Vancouver Canadian Again
Guest
Make Vancouver Canadian Again
Others on this blog have said that you, Patriotz, are from NDP central headquarters in Ottawa. If that is true, that may explain your reflexive defense of Mulcair. I have done a search on google as well and I also cannot find the comment. I do seem to remember, however, Thomas Mulcair referring to Canada in a media soundbite as something to the effect of ‘from the Atlantic Ocean to the Rocky Mountains.” I remember that because it made me take notice and it made me wonder at the time if he was aware whether or not BC even exists. If I remember correctly, it may have been around the time he became leader of the NDP. It may have been on television so a transcript may not be available on the internet. Nevertheless, I remember forming the opinion that… Read more »
patriotz
Member

“Others on this blog have said that you, Patriotz, are from NDP central headquarters in Ottawa.”

That’s news to me. Reminds me of the resident jackass who claims (also incorrectly) that I work for the federal immigration department. No I don’t think you’re the same person but you make a good couple.

As for Mulcair I think he ran a lousy campaign – I thought he had a real shot at winning – but in fact the NDP increased its seat count in BC in contrast to other provinces where the party lost many seats. So the BC voters seemed to like him well enough.

Make Vancouver Canadian Again
Guest
Make Vancouver Canadian Again

Sorry, I stand corrected, it’s the Federal Immigration Dept that you are alleged to work for.

While it is true that the NDP increased their seat count in BC, that was largely due to Vancouver Island — which is an entity unto itself. The NDP lost seats in Metro Vancouver and were wiped out in Surrey. That was a major loss for the NDP because the NDP should be appealing to urban Canada and the working class and the working poor and even the middle class who are so struggling with severely unaffordable housing (and transportation is a related complex of problems). The NDP should be appealing to these people and instead lost their votes. What is Jagmeet Singh’s plan on getting those votes back in Metro Vancouver???

Lost...but not leased
Guest
Lost...but not leased

NDP will be extinct soon…(.and Tommy Douglas is rolling over in his grave and how the idea was co-opted.)

Every time they became gov’t by default, they royally F*ck Up.

They seem to have a bucket list of whacko ideas that they MUST impliment asap , given they tend to be a heartbeat away from being turfed in next election.

BC NDP full focus now is PR….THE END.

Best place on meth
Member
Best place on meth

They deserve to become extinct for choosing a leader who overtly displays religious symbols while supposedly representing ALL Canadians.

Lost...but not leased
Guest
Lost...but not leased

As usual…NDP played the Joker card…this time picking some blatantly token ethnic who doesn’t even have a seat in Gov’t.

Honeymoon is over…time to shite or get off the pot…Jagmeet has to actually WORK now.
Burnaby South???…talk about a parachute candidate.
F*cking joke.

Prediction; Voting public is sick of these slimey politics and will shift to the right.

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29
bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

There’s an Instagram account that showcases the worst rentals in Metro Vancouver
http://dailyhive.com/vancouver/vancouver-worst-rentals-instagram-account

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

Surrey mayor under fire for golf tournament fundraiser, despite it being within the rules
https://vancouversun.com/news/local-news/corporate-cash-at-surrey-mayors-golf-tournament-follow-rules-but-draw-criticism

KickThemOut
Member
KickThemOut

CPPIB taking our hard earned pension dollar and helping locusts with rental housing? While thousands in GVRD are homeless or hundreds of thousands are 1 paycheque or 1 rate hike away from homeless?

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/cppib-co-invest-china-rental-054035194.html

Name
Guest
Name
patriotz
Member

“Tariffs could add over $10,000 to condo prices”

That should be condo costs. Condo prices are determined by what buyers are willing to pay.

Lost...but not leased
Guest
Lost...but not leased

Tariffs will trickle down to job losses and thus fewer buyers, if not greater stress on existing purchasers.

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

no one in Richmond has a job…

Lost...but not leased
Guest
Lost...but not leased

Its getting there..

Mall at #3RD and Cook is being demolished as we speak…
Park Village mall (one block away) is now closed and next.

Soon, only one Safeway left…..

(Oh well….. legalized pot will save the day.)

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

The top 30% of households overseas don’t have jobs either. They have businesses or rely on their wealth to produce income.

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

It’s those that don’t have assets that are the working class there.

Same going to happen here. You see it in Richmond.

Lost...but not leased
Guest
Lost...but not leased

Most of those central Richmond malls I alluded to earlier were almost exclusively tenanted by Asian themed businesses.

The majority won’t re-open as
(i) available space is generally in new buildings=too expensive and no parking
(ii) whatever is left will have high demand, (till they get demolished)….low vacancy.

This leaves a lot of Asians out of work.

Center of Richmond is being gutted out and increasingly turned into Ghost City.

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

builders will focus more on wooden 3/4 story walkups vs highrises, shave off 50, 75, 100…sqft here and there and overcharge for features that used to be standard to recoup some of these costs

Lost...but not leased
Guest
Lost...but not leased

Focus all they want….IMHO the market is at or near collapse mode.

Like a dying person…there will be the odd “burst” here and there…then SHTF

Name
Guest
Name

The Big Story: Ignoring interest rates is finally costing you money

https://www.news1130.com/2018/07/12/big-story-interest-rates/

“Canadians need to plan for a period of spiking rates that will impact everything from mortgages and lines of credit, to student loans, savings accounts, and investments.”

Hyper-mega-Bull
Member
Hyper-mega-Bull

Because I couldn’t afford a west side detached.

Then they came for the east side detached, and I did not speak out—
Because I could not afford a east side detached.

Then they came for the inner suburb detached, and I did not speak out—
Because I could not afford the inner suburb detached.

Then they came for condos—and there was no one left to speak for me.

Specuskeptic
Member

Yep. Taxing condos is just like the holocaust.

Best place on meth
Member
Best place on meth

So is separating children from their criminal, border jumping parents.

Hyper-mega-Bull
Member
Hyper-mega-Bull

First they came for the west side detached, and I did not speak out—
Because I couldn’t afford a west side detached.

Then they came for the east side detached, and I did not speak out—
Because I could not afford a east side detached.

Then they came for the inner suburb detached, and I did not speak out—
Because I could not afford the inner suburb detached.

Then they came for condos—and there was no one left to speak for me.

No Chump
Guest
No Chump

Ha ha! Good one! All the Joesph Goebbel’s-style BS about this RE market will have left a lot of people “disenfranchised” after it has finally popped, too.

southseacompany
Member
southseacompany

That was fast:

“Royal Bank raises prime rate to 3.7 per cent following BoC rate hike” Globe & Mail

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/article-royal-bank-raises-prime-rate-to-37-per-cent-following-boc-rate-hike/

‘RBC says it will increase its prime rate by a quarter of a percentage point to 3.70 per cent, effective Thursday. The rate has been set at 3.45 per cent.”

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

They always raise a day or so after the BoC does. This is normal.

Let the ‘Oracle is a pumper’ posts follow.

southseacompany
Member
southseacompany

“BMO Bank of Montreal Increases CDN$ Prime Lending Rate to 3.70 Per Cent”, CNW

https://www.newswire.ca/news-releases/bmo-bank-of-montreal-increases-cdn-prime-lending-rate-to-370-per-cent-687920011.html

southseacompany
Member
southseacompany
MAKE TRUDEAU A DRAMA TEACHER AGAIN!
Guest
MAKE TRUDEAU A DRAMA TEACHER AGAIN!

This latest move only seems to have affected floating rate mortgages. You can still get a 5 yr fixed at 3.30% from a legit lender.

MAKE TRUDEAU A DRAMA TEACHER AGAIN!
Guest
MAKE TRUDEAU A DRAMA TEACHER AGAIN!

That said, some of the people most on the ‘edge’ have open mortgages becuase they have had lower rates and subsequent lower payments.

Shut It Down Already (original)
Guest
Shut It Down Already (original)

Presumably you mean “variable” rather than “open”.

Shut It Down Already (original)
Guest
Shut It Down Already (original)

Because fixed mortgages are set by the bond market and not the overnight lending rate.

MAKE TRUDEAU A DRAMA TEACHER AGAIN!
Guest
MAKE TRUDEAU A DRAMA TEACHER AGAIN!

Thank you Captain Obvious.

I was surprised we didn’t not see the 5 yr move up on the fairly hawkish tone.

Shut It Down Already (original)
Guest
Shut It Down Already (original)

Nice attempt at a recovery!

paulb
Member

New
187
Price Change
82
Sold
62
TI:12776

http://www.clivestevepaul.com

Best place on meth
Member
Best place on meth

Another day, another peak in inventory.

Specuskeptic
Member

Waaaarrrreeee peeeeek?

Best place on meth
Member
Best place on meth
From Teranet, As in May, prices were up in 10 of the 11 metropolitan markets surveyed, led by Ottawa-Gatineau (2.0%), Hamilton (1.8%), Edmonton (1.5%), Victoria (1.3%), Toronto (1.2%) and Halifax (1.0%). The Toronto rise was the smallest since 2008 for a month of June. The Quebec City index rose apace with the countrywide average of 0.9%. Gains were smaller in Montreal (0.7%), Vancouver (0.6%) and Calgary (0.6%), and the index for Winnipeg was down 1.0% on the month. The rise in Vancouver was the fourth-smallest since 2001 for a month of June. Over the first half of the year the Toronto index rose at an annual rate of 5.7%. For the condo segment the rate was 12.1%, for other housing only 2.9%, reflecting a tight seller’s market for condos. The Vancouver story is similar: condo segment up 17.6% annualized since… Read more »
bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

Udi Kuaiche, an illegal Chinese-language ride-sharing company is apparently expanding in Vancouver
https://globalnews.ca/video/4329337/illegal-ride-sharing-service-apparently-expanding-in-vancouver/

Name
Guest
Name

and the shadowy asian subculture is growing wildly in the lower mainland …

Doomcouver
Guest
Doomcouver

More undercover police is the solution here. Get some Chinese RCMP to start running sting operations and the illegal ride sharing business will fall apart.