Canada, debt, economy, mortgage, predictions, rates

28% of Canadians say rate hike would cause bankruptcy

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87 Comments

From southseacompany: this survey claims that more than a quarter of Canadians think that another rate increase would push them into bankruptcy.

The poll comes just days before an anticipated interest rate hike by the Bank of Canada and was conducted on behalf of MNP, a leading Canadian bankruptcy firm, between June 15 and June 19. The same poll found that 42% of Canadians say that if interest rates rise much more their financial well-being will be put in jeopardy.

The Bank of Canada has raised interest rates three times since last summer, and investors expect the central bank will boost its target for the overnight rate to 1.5% this Wednesday (July 11).

Read the full article here.

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bullwhip29

Home values in Vancouver highest after Silicon Valley, while incomes just ahead of Columbus
https://vancouversun.com/business/local-business/home-values-in-vancouver-highest-after-silicon-valley-while-incomes-just-ahead-of-columbus

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Name

but of course it’s not foreign buyers with their ill-gotten money or laundered azian drug money, or tax evasion by ‘students’ or ‘housewives’ no no no, it’s just locals with huge mortgages …

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Shut It Down Already (original)

Well, what’s the average new mortgage to income ratio in Vancouver versus Columbus?

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Laibach

Right, locals draw prices to insanity in Vancouver…

“You need one of two things: either Vancouver real estate prices need to halve to attain a certain level of affordability, or you need to double incomes,” Yan said.

Doubling incomes is wildly ambitious — similar in scale to a 10-year goal that China has set for itself.

http://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2018-07-13/vancouver-continent-s-least-affordable-city-has-a-wage-problem

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bullwhip29

Illegal online sale of Chinese cigarettes widespread in B.C., says expert
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/bc-cigarettes-resale-china-1.4745113

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Best place on meth

Mainlanders have absolutely overwhelmed us with their criminal activity.

Government and law enforcement are helpless and have no idea what to do about it.

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Shut It Down Already (original)

You’re a joke.

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bullwhip29

For Richmond residents who are experiencing financial hardship, the city is now stepping in with Richmond Community Associations and Societies to further subsidize recreation passes
http://www.richmond-news.com/community/richmond-expands-recreation-fee-subsidies-1.23366646

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bullwhip29

Udi Kuaiche, an illegal Chinese-language ride-sharing company is apparently expanding in Vancouver
https://globalnews.ca/video/4329337/illegal-ride-sharing-service-apparently-expanding-in-vancouver/

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Name

and the shadowy asian subculture is growing wildly in the lower mainland …

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Doomcouver

More undercover police is the solution here. Get some Chinese RCMP to start running sting operations and the illegal ride sharing business will fall apart.

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Best place on meth

From Teranet, As in May, prices were up in 10 of the 11 metropolitan markets surveyed, led by Ottawa-Gatineau (2.0%), Hamilton (1.8%), Edmonton (1.5%), Victoria (1.3%), Toronto (1.2%) and Halifax (1.0%). The Toronto rise was the smallest since 2008 for a month of June. The Quebec City index rose apace with the countrywide average of 0.9%. Gains were smaller in Montreal (0.7%), Vancouver (0.6%) and Calgary (0.6%), and the index for Winnipeg was down 1.0% on the month. The rise in Vancouver was the fourth-smallest since 2001 for a month of June. Over the first half of the year the Toronto index rose at an annual rate of 5.7%. For the condo segment the rate was 12.1%, for other housing only 2.9%, reflecting a tight seller’s market for condos. The Vancouver story is similar: condo segment up 17.6% annualized since… Read more »

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Best place on meth

Another day, another peak in inventory.

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Spec

Waaaarrrreeee peeeeek?

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paulb

New
187
Price Change
82
Sold
62
TI:12776

http://www.clivestevepaul.com

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southseacompany

“Scotiabank increases prime lending rate” CNW

https://www.newswire.ca/news-releases/scotiabank-increases-prime-lending-rate-687923371.html

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MAKE TRUDEAU A DRAMA TEACHER AGAIN!

This latest move only seems to have affected floating rate mortgages. You can still get a 5 yr fixed at 3.30% from a legit lender.

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MAKE TRUDEAU A DRAMA TEACHER AGAIN!

That said, some of the people most on the ‘edge’ have open mortgages becuase they have had lower rates and subsequent lower payments.

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Shut It Down Already (original)

Presumably you mean “variable” rather than “open”.

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Shut It Down Already (original)

Because fixed mortgages are set by the bond market and not the overnight lending rate.

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MAKE TRUDEAU A DRAMA TEACHER AGAIN!

Thank you Captain Obvious.

I was surprised we didn’t not see the 5 yr move up on the fairly hawkish tone.

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Shut It Down Already (original)

Nice attempt at a recovery!

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southseacompany

“BMO Bank of Montreal Increases CDN$ Prime Lending Rate to 3.70 Per Cent”, CNW

https://www.newswire.ca/news-releases/bmo-bank-of-montreal-increases-cdn-prime-lending-rate-to-370-per-cent-687920011.html

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southseacompany

That was fast:

“Royal Bank raises prime rate to 3.7 per cent following BoC rate hike” Globe & Mail

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/article-royal-bank-raises-prime-rate-to-37-per-cent-following-boc-rate-hike/

‘RBC says it will increase its prime rate by a quarter of a percentage point to 3.70 per cent, effective Thursday. The rate has been set at 3.45 per cent.”

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Oracle

They always raise a day or so after the BoC does. This is normal.

Let the ‘Oracle is a pumper’ posts follow.

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Hyper-mega-Bull

First they came for the west side detached, and I did not speak out—
Because I couldn’t afford a west side detached.

Then they came for the east side detached, and I did not speak out—
Because I could not afford a east side detached.

Then they came for the inner suburb detached, and I did not speak out—
Because I could not afford the inner suburb detached.

Then they came for condos—and there was no one left to speak for me.

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No Chump

Ha ha! Good one! All the Joesph Goebbel’s-style BS about this RE market will have left a lot of people “disenfranchised” after it has finally popped, too.

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Hyper-mega-Bull

Because I couldn’t afford a west side detached.

Then they came for the east side detached, and I did not speak out—
Because I could not afford a east side detached.

Then they came for the inner suburb detached, and I did not speak out—
Because I could not afford the inner suburb detached.

Then they came for condos—and there was no one left to speak for me.

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Spec

Yep. Taxing condos is just like the holocaust.

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Best place on meth

So is separating children from their criminal, border jumping parents.

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Name

The Big Story: Ignoring interest rates is finally costing you money

https://www.news1130.com/2018/07/12/big-story-interest-rates/

“Canadians need to plan for a period of spiking rates that will impact everything from mortgages and lines of credit, to student loans, savings accounts, and investments.”

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patriotz

“Tariffs could add over $10,000 to condo prices”

That should be condo costs. Condo prices are determined by what buyers are willing to pay.

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Lost...but not leased

Tariffs will trickle down to job losses and thus fewer buyers, if not greater stress on existing purchasers.

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bullwhip29

no one in Richmond has a job…

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Lost...but not leased

Its getting there..

Mall at #3RD and Cook is being demolished as we speak…
Park Village mall (one block away) is now closed and next.

Soon, only one Safeway left…..

(Oh well….. legalized pot will save the day.)

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Oracle

The top 30% of households overseas don’t have jobs either. They have businesses or rely on their wealth to produce income.

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Oracle

It’s those that don’t have assets that are the working class there.

Same going to happen here. You see it in Richmond.

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Lost...but not leased

Most of those central Richmond malls I alluded to earlier were almost exclusively tenanted by Asian themed businesses.

The majority won’t re-open as
(i) available space is generally in new buildings=too expensive and no parking
(ii) whatever is left will have high demand, (till they get demolished)….low vacancy.

This leaves a lot of Asians out of work.

Center of Richmond is being gutted out and increasingly turned into Ghost City.

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bullwhip29

builders will focus more on wooden 3/4 story walkups vs highrises, shave off 50, 75, 100…sqft here and there and overcharge for features that used to be standard to recoup some of these costs

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Lost...but not leased

Focus all they want….IMHO the market is at or near collapse mode.

Like a dying person…there will be the odd “burst” here and there…then SHTF

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KickThemOut

CPPIB taking our hard earned pension dollar and helping locusts with rental housing? While thousands in GVRD are homeless or hundreds of thousands are 1 paycheque or 1 rate hike away from homeless?

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/cppib-co-invest-china-rental-054035194.html

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bullwhip29

Surrey mayor under fire for golf tournament fundraiser, despite it being within the rules
https://vancouversun.com/news/local-news/corporate-cash-at-surrey-mayors-golf-tournament-follow-rules-but-draw-criticism

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bullwhip29

There’s an Instagram account that showcases the worst rentals in Metro Vancouver
http://dailyhive.com/vancouver/vancouver-worst-rentals-instagram-account

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bullwhip29

Credit card skimmers found at Vancouver transit stations
https://www.ctvnews.ca/canada/credit-card-skimmers-found-at-vancouver-transit-stations-1.4010396

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Best place on meth

As the trade war with china escalates:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-07-11/eu-to-join-trump-in-criticizing-china-s-role-in-global-trade

Trump just keeps on winning.

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Shut It Down Already (original)

It’s quite easy when you ignore all the losses.

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bullwhip29

$3.5 million US to be dispersed to investors hit in B.C. Ponzi scheme, but hundreds of claims rejected
https://vancouversun.com/business/local-business/3-5-million-us-to-be-dispersed-to-investors-hit-in-b-c-ponzi-scheme-but-hundreds-of-claims-rejected

>>> what a total joke our so called regulators are…

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bullwhip29

More than $2,000 a month for a co-op unit in Vancouver — what gives?
http://www.vancourier.com/real-estate/more-than-2-000-a-month-for-a-co-op-unit-in-vancouver-what-gives-1.23364759

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bullwhip29

After a local barbecue fell under social media scrutiny for initially marketing the event as a fundraiser for Richmond First, the slate is now speaking up about the event…
http://www.richmond-news.com/election-2018/we-have-not-received-any-money-richmond-first-responds-to-farmland-owners-bbq-1.23365033

>>> whatever….

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Lost...but not leased

RE: Richmond News …

Seems to be succumbing to yellow journalism(no pun intended)…this non -story is embarassing.

When Richmond had another paper(Richmond Review)…they kept each other honest and balanced ….moreso in the LETTERS/OPINION section.

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bullwhip29

Vancouver going beyond conserving buildings in Chinatown
https://vancouversun.com/business/local-business/vancouver-going-beyond-conserving-buildings-in-chinatown

>>> so, as the saying goes… “what’s your’s is mine and what’s mine is mine…”
well played indeed….

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Lost...but not leased

Bankruptcy..

See, I was right….as usual

……wait til we hit TI of 13,000….gets “quantum leap ” ugly !

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Shut It Down Already (original)

13000 is ridiculously low. In fact, in other years that’s not been far off the low tide mark.

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Lost...but not leased

Ok SIDA
…dive in at the shallow end.

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Best place on meth

AIDS is from the shallow end of the gene pool.

You know, the part that’s full of sludge and feces?

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Lost...but not leased

Point is ….forget past RE history….too many seem to think it will repeat/rhyme.

IMHO, we are in UNcharted waters and some VCI ers believe in quasi knee- jerk fashion that TI circa 2018 must be a far higher amount before SHTF.

There are too many “flashpoint”variables…. any one of which could catalyze a crash.
Even patriotz should know better……

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Spec

Yes – MOI is on the lower end of the middle round and so is listings. Sales, on the other hand, are as low as they’ve ever been and, when considering regional growth, 2008 sales of 2400 (give or take) is much better than 2018’s 2400 (or so) in relative terms.

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Shut It Down Already (original)

Which is exactly why MOI is a great metric, being indendent of market size.

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Spec

Sales this low do indicate a vulnerability should even a small little upward blip in listings occur. MOI could move upward quickly.

Not making any predictions.

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oncebittwiceshy

Meanwhile, in the condo market …

http://vancitycondoguide.com/vancouver-condo-inventory-trending-upwards/

“As of May 2018, there were over 35,000 apartments under construction, more than three standard deviations from the long term mean.”

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