It’s getting to be that time of the year again… the air is getting cooler, the leaves are starting to turn and the listing numbers are blooming.
New
498
Price Change
155
Sold
53
TI:12439
Thanks to paulb for the numbers!
143 Comments
[…] –Big fines for illegal short term rentals […]
Inventory up 214 in 2 days.
Was 13K the peak?
I’m sticking with my original answer.
Dude you are going complete nut bar over the minor fluctuation in inventory. We have been at around this level for months plus minus a few hundred. When we get towards 20,000 we will see a correction. 12K is still historically low. Especially when it seems 50% of those listings are land assembly or prices 20% above the last comparable sale.
“I” am going “complete nut bar”?
Ok dude, whatever you say.
The whole point of paying attention to inventory is because it’s a leading indicator of price declines…but we already have prices in free fall…so any continued growth in inventory is icing on the gravy. Still say we crack 14K before the end of October.
MOI is the better metric as it’s a leading indicator of rising inventory. And right now MOI for attached doesn’t indicate anything untoward at this point. For detached, however, it’s quite bearish if the current level is sustained for an extended period.
There has been a drop of 25 per cent in average home price and 22 per cent drop in median home price since the highs of 2017, according to Bonner.
“Detached, attached and apartments on the west side are now all experiencing price reductions and while this is creating good buying opportunities, buyers are holding off in anticipation of further declines,” Bonner wrote to clients in a note. “This will exacerbate the decline and soften prices further.”
Very welcome people!
I think I missed yesterday. Here are the last 2 days.
New
609
Price Change
187
Sold
195
TI:12653
http://vancitycondoguide.com/vancouver-condo-prices-dip-in-august/ Vancouver Condo Prices Dip for Third Consecutive Month in August “With condo sales cooling off, inventory has begun to increase. The number of Vancouver condos for sale increased by a whopping 51% year over year. Despite the increase, inventory levels remain below historic norms, however, the quick jump in inventory combined with falling sales is a concerning trend. Expect condo inventory to swell in the coming months and even years ahead, as a record number of new construction apartments near completion. There are currently a record high 43,024 units under construction and a plethora of housing starts also underway. In other words, there’s a pipeline of supply coming and the demand might not be there to meet it.” http://vancitycondoguide.com/august-fewest-detached-home-sales/ August Sees Fewest Vancouver Detached Home Sales in 27 Years “Sales were even lower than August 2016, when home sales… Read more »
Pre-sale flippers are screwed.
They won’t be able to complete because of B20, they won’t be able to assign prior to completion and they’ll lose their deposit.
In addition the developer will sue them for the difference in price if they resell it at a lower price than what the flipper signed on for.
“They won’t be able to complete because of B20”
Horgan thought of that. All 50 BC credit unions are exempt from B20 and are still lending to anyone with a pulse. Note the BC tax payer insures BC credit union deposits (unlimited).
The BC credit union i am working at has seen one deal only last month.
Horgan has nothing to do with B20.
Oldie but goodie, to revisit how we ended up in the deep shit.
“Foreign ownership is, of course, the culprit. Beneficiaries of the property boom, homeowners, developers, and the politicians whom they finance, often claim that foreign ownership isn’t actually as big of a problem as we make it out to be. This category of people cherry pick misleading statistics propped up by biased stakeholders and lobbyists like real estate agent associations, and almost always has something to gain.”
http://saeidfard.com/post/113616107456/the-decline-of-vancouver
upvote if you think we are at the beginning of a housing crash that will have a severe impact on the canadian economy.
Perhaps some but not severe or at least not for long. It will rather have a positive impact in getting economy back on the right track in the long run.
We will be better off in the long run with lower housing prices.
“Australia’s property boom ends as credit squeeze begins”, Financial Times
https://www.ft.com/content/cf5bcbf8-b0b1-11e8-8d14-6f049d06439c
“Economists cite tighter credit and unaffordable prices as the reason for the biggest fall in Sydney property prices for nine years. New figures this week show Sydney prices have fallen 5.6 per cent over the past year, while the national market fell 2 per cent.”
“This follows a similar pattern overseas, where property markets from London to Toronto are seeing price declines as central banks begin to unwind record-low interest rates, consumers balk at paying record high prices and regulators or banks impose tougher lending criteria on consumers.”
“Fraser Valley sales, home prices keep on dropping”, Peace Arch News
https://www.peacearchnews.com/news/fraser-valley-sales-home-prices-keep-on-dropping/
“Abbotsford home prices keep falling”, Abbotsford News
https://www.abbynews.com/news/abbotsford-home-prices-keep-falling/
“Number of sales down dramatically, while double the homes now up for grabs”
Oracle, are Abby townhouses still approaching $700K?
“The price of the average townhouse also dipped, to just above $400,000”
That’s seems a tad lower than $700K.
I thought Oracle said the valley was on fire.
Did he mean the forests or that they’re also having a lot of houses burning down under suspicious circumstances?
Wow, $400k for a townhouse in Abbotsford. That is a steal. Time to buy. Let us know which one you get.
“Bank of Canada holds rates steady as it eyes NAFTA fallout”, Globe & Mail
“Many economists are betting that the central bank will resume hiking at its next rate-setting announcement on Oct. 24, when the bank is due to release its next quarterly economic forecast.”
“Vancouver Real Estate Is Starting To Look Like A Disaster”, HuffPost
https://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2018/09/05/vancouver-real-estate-correction_a_23518030/
“But some real estate insiders in B.C. say there are segments of the market where things are considerably worse than the real estate board’s data suggest.”
“Realtor Ian Watt used independent figures from data-mining company SnapStats to determine that detached homes on Vancouver’s pricey west side have fallen by 26 per cent in the past year, to a median of $2.8 million, from $3.8 million a year ago.”
“The seeming collapse in house prices at the top end of the market could be the “canary in the coal mine” warning of a broader correction, realtor Stuart Bonner told the Vancouver Sun earlier this month.”
“Vancouver Real Estate Sales Drop Over 36%, Slowest Price Growth Since 2014”, Better Dwelling
“Vancouver real estates is finally starting to cool down, but it’s doing so incredibly fast. Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) numbers show growth deceleration in August. This is the sixth consecutive month we’ve seen price growth slow. The slowing growth is largely due to sales plummeting, while inventory begins to soar.”
“Slowest Price Growth Since 2014”
Wow, impressive. The price growth is not hitting record pace anymore.
“Metro Vancouver sees house prices edge lower for 2 straight months”, CVT News
“The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver says prices for detached homes, townhouses and condos have fallen for two consecutive months in Metro Vancouver.”
David Eby slams ‘colossal failure’ of money-laundering law enforcement during Ottawa appearance
“Real estate links:
Eby told the committee that money laundering in B.C. isn’t limited to casinos — there’s also strong evidence that illicit funds are being used to purchase real estate, helping to drive up housing prices.
As German writes in his interim recommendations, “It has been said that, ‘everything in B.C. comes back to real estate.'”
Eby was instrumental in convincing the Federal Liberals that there is a huge money laundering problem in Canada that needs to be addressed.
So that’s where he is…
What’s he doing in Ottawa?
Probably used taxpayer money to fly there too.
But I thought it was the BC Liberals fault? At least that is what he said 2 years ago. Now he has been in power 18 months he can’t do anything himself but whine?
“Now he has been in power 18 months”
Ok, if you say so.
Weak regulations make Canada a money-launderer’s playground, says report
https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/money-laundering-howe-meunier-1.4811911
“The report cites estimates of between $5 billion and $100 billion in dirty money being laundered under Canada’s lax regime,”
most of this laundered cash is in Vancouver real estate.
I’m not sure how much of the problem is regulation versus the incompetence of the CRA. It’s much easier to target the middle class, than it is to understand international finance.
“I’m not sure how much of the problem is regulation versus the incompetence of the CRA”
It’s not CRA’s job to go after money laundering per se, In fact the point of money laundering is to make the funds look legit so the parties involved usually report it as business income and pay the appropriate taxes.
I’m not just referring to money laundering. I’m referring to the broad range of illegal money movement and transfers into Canada. It’s a poor excuse to say that if CRA takes a cut of the money, it’s not something they should go after. We’ve had a flood of billions of dollars into Canada through all sorts of sketchy means and a lot of that money has found it’s way into our real estate market. I’m sure they pay their municipal taxes, but a lot of sketchy stuff went on to get to that point. Does it make sense to you that owners of apartment buildings list ‘student’ as their profession? Does it make sense to you that a ‘homemaker’ owns a $10Million house and reports no income? The housing bubble in Canada has exposed our government as being incompetent at… Read more »
“The housing bubble in Canada has exposed our government as being incompetent at much every level. It took a lot of failure to get to this point.”
Well said. Incompetent at best, ignorant as the middle ground, corrupt at worst…The situation is so extreme that the usual mere incompetence and ignorance that generally attend human affairs are insufficient to account for the scope and magnitude of this disaster…so, it is likely corruption, attended by a cheering brigade of unwitting and witting 5th columnists.
Yes. It makes sense that you can find an example of a $10m house owned by somebody with low income. Unless not being wealthy rather than a debt slave is now somehow considered to be suspicious behaviour?
“In fact the point of money laundering is to make the funds look legit so the parties involved usually report it as business income and pay the appropriate taxes.”
Are you really that dumb? We are talking about people who flip houses claimed as principal residencies and pay no income or business taxes. They report it as income from a house sale which they then have the paper trail to back up – all tax free. They can then move the funds to anywhere in the world no questions asked. Or just buy more houses here no questions asked.
Vancouver short-term rental listings drop almost 50% as new rules take effect
Airbnb deactivates more than 2,400 listings in Vancouver
Holm said staff has investigated more than 2,650 short-term rental listings to date and since Sept. 1, 294 new addresses have been flagged for non-compliance and are subject to enforcement.
She added that the city built a “sophisticated data analytics system to address the complexity of tracking and managing” short-term rental listings and the city is tracking all platforms using third-party data scraping.
“This week, we are starting enforcement and targeting unlicensed or invalid licenced online listings,” Holm said.
Fines can run up to $1,000 per offence. Holm said that could mean up to $1,000 per day, per platform.
“Vancouver short-term rental listings drop almost 50% as new rules take effect”
That and it is September. Many short term rentals are only on for the Spring/Summer. Lets see what it looks like next year.
Bearish headlines all over the place, and it’s still only the beginning of the slide.
“Home sales – and prices – slump further in Metro Vancouver
Overall benchmark prices are still higher than a year ago, but they’re on the slide, with detached home values dropping most”
https://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2018/09/05/vancouver-real-estate-correction_a_23518030/
“Vancouver Real Estate Is Starting To Look Like A Disaster
In some areas, detached home prices may have fallen as much as 30 per cent.”
“Overall benchmark prices are still higher than a year ago”
What was the election promise again? Does that mean housing is more affordable or less affordable?
What will you bitch about when prices turn negative year over year?
Or when prices are lower than they were when the NDP formed government?
Never mind, I don’t care.
You should jump out of plane from 10,000 feet without a parachute…you’ll be able to yell to the world for a couple of minutes that you’re still higher than last year…and you’ll be right.
“What was the election promise again?”
I’ll give you a hint – it wasn’t “Lower REBGV benchmark prices within one year”. See for yourself:
https://action.bcndp.ca/page/-/bcndp/docs/BC-NDP-Platform-2017.pdf
I couldn’t find the part about benchmark prices being up after 1 year. I did see something about taxing foreign buyers on presales.
If someone says they are going to stop a runaway car and they stop it; I do not complain that the car kept moving forward after the brakes were applied if it comes to a controlled stop. I would complain if it was driven into a bridge abutment but I assume that is how you would like to see the car stopped.
The NDP were pretty clear their goal was a price drop.
https://vancouversun.com/news/politics/government-says-goal-of-budget-taxes-is-a-housing-price-drop
To this point, housing is still less affordable than it was when they took power. They moved too slowly on the housing file while prices were still appreciating. The NDP should have talked the market down the minute they took power, but they didn’t. They sat on the file for the better part of a year.
That said, they deserve some credit for taking action and they did it in a real way, not superficially as I was expecting.
My criticism going forward is that some of their measures should have been ‘temporary’ measures. Popping any asset bubble carries serious risks.
Minority governments generally do not get everything that they want and they move more slowly.
While I would like them to do more is that realistic?
The NDP can do what they want because Weaver has his nuts in a vice grip. He’s not taking the government down on anything. It might as well be a majority government at this point.
+1
Horgan cancelling public inquiry into money laundering via real estate and housing.
Wow o wow.
Imagine how many municipal politicians would hang. Most are NDP allies.
Too many people caught up in this mess. It’s not just the BC Liberals. This is Bingogate on steroids.
I can see why he doesn’t want it.
Probably because it was a “non-story” to begin with.
Like overseas buyers right?
You tell me.
The story about overseas buyers is about how many fools thought that there was a story and subsequently made the biggest financial decision of their lives out of fear and greed.
My last landlord “owned” 5 houses “on behalf of” his cousin in China. And each year he refinanced the properties to borrow more against them…
My RBC mortgage broker, in 2016/2017 said that the majority of her clients were in China.
And this is why you never include links…because you’re so full of shit
https://globalnews.ca/news/4426339/b-c-premier-not-ruling-out-public-inquiry-into-money-laundering-but-prefers-internal-probe/
You are so behind the 8 ball. It’s already happened. And the German report was compromised. Aka fake
FFS. Who’s side you think Global is on? LOL.
And it’s said he’d prefer not to have inquiry.
That’s how they butter up you minion level thinkers.
Unbelievable
Fuck you’re stupid
Yes, but only because he thinks an ‘internal inquiry’ might be more effective, but he essentially said that an inquiry is happening one way or another. Now start fabricating your next BS post.
Don’t keep me hanging, Paul…
The August numbers should keep you happy for the month. 🙂
I’m greedy I guess. He’s likely processing a flood of listing requests…
Monthly stats look great, price decreases are accelerating nicely.
Condos down 1.4% compared to -0.5% in July.
Detached down 1.5% compared to -0.6% in July.
HAM areas for detached were pummeled. Burnaby -4%, W. Van -2.8%, Van W -2.3%, Richman -1.9%
It’s a beautiful thing…gonna be a nasty fall/winter
See what Horgan announced?? Cancelling any public inquiry into money laundering and real estate.
Says cost too much. Hahahaha
Nice try…and hey, I see you upvoted yourself again.
Still think NDP hasn’t done enough Oracle? Can’t wait for your spin…
“Still think NDP hasn’t done enough”
What did they do? The BoC raised rates and we are seeing the effect. Still prices are up since the NDP took office despite B20 and several BoC rate increases.
Are you for real?
Sadly, yes.
What did they do? Other than piss off a few local house rich seniors on fixed incomes.
Hasn’t done Fuck all for me.
A $1 million place hasn’t fallen to $700,000 so what do icare about the $4 million dollar homes.
Get your head out of the sand andget back to reality.
Those are some bearish numbers. Three points make a trend so let’s see what happens in a month.
I think some sellers will transition from concern to fear now. Bad sales and falling prices will motivate even more price cuts.
Yet more reason to vote for Bernier’s new party…
https://nationalpost.com/opinion/maxime-bernier-why-my-new-political-movement-because-canada-has-been-hijacked#comments-area
He’s raised $90k and he’s bragging about it.
He’s a lightweight who has no chance of winning more than his own seat (if that)
He can however, hand the election to Mr. Dress up but siphioning votes away from the Conservatives.
Change doesn’t happen overnight. If you don’t vote for him then change will never happen. Right now none of the parties represent the interests of Canadians as a whole, just special interest. Not one of them is talking about lowering immigration even this is what the majority wants. If you don’t vote for Bernier then things will never change, even if it means handing the election over to Turd, sad as that is. He could win enough seats to pull a Green Party and wield some power.
Not a majority, but close:
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/immigration-poll-canada-1.4794218
If we are going to have this open immigration then I’m going to advocate that as many Indians come here as possible. We will make one area of the province ours. Chinese are doing it so why not us?
The big takeaway from that survey is only 6% want it increased, and yet no political parties talk against increasing it, like when the Liberals announced plans to increase it after some bogus special interest think tank proclaimed that we need to increase it, back a couple years ago. Plus, people are often afraid to say when being interviewed for fear of sounding xenophobic…so I’d say half of those saying they want to keep it the same really want it decreased.
In polls most people say the politically correct thing. That is why Trump never had a chance according to the polls.
Trump didn’t get a majority in the popular vote either.
Who cares about the popular vote?
Somebody talking about majorities and polling, duh?
Polling for projecting who wins the US Presidential election is based on polling in the electoral collages. At least it should be. Maybe those fake news polls actually were polling based on popular vote of places like California. It fooled you. And it looks like you still don’t understand how the US election works.
Of course I know how the electoral college works. Nice diversion, though.
I think the Conservatives did an excellent job for 15 years. Low taxes and balanced budgets. They were far from perfect but I was very pleased with what they did.
I think a lot of people are coming to that realization. Harper is getting more liked and respected as time goes on. That’s what happens when you go from one of the best to the worst.
“I think the Conservatives did an excellent job for 15 years.”
Harper and crew are no longer going to run things. Scheer is Trudeau light. The guy won the leadership by drawing in dairy farmers to vote for him who were never conservatives.
They lowered the down payment to 5% and at one point introduced 40 year amortizations…yeah, great job Harper.
They lowered down payments to ZERO.
Fucking idiots.
“They lowered the down payment to 5% ”
Nope that was done by the Paul Martin Liberals which kicked off the bubble.
I thought I recalled them changing to 0/40….and they did it when the market was already red hot…desperate to overheat the economy so they could win a majority next election since they only had a minority at the time. Yup, sound leadership…I really miss you Harper.
https://youtu.be/KhFED9glZWA
I miss Harper too, so much great material for comedians.
Troll unveiled himself.
Vancouver Real Estate Is Starting To Look Like A Disaster (even with prices going up)
https://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2018/09/05/vancouver-real-estate-correction_a_23518030/
For fuck sakes. Prices is what matters.
https://www.zolo.ca/vancouver-real-estate/7818-main-street
East side bungalows listing under 800k. Assessed 1.5m. Half off. Will there be a bidding war? How much is this house really worth? With such low volumes who knows? Take a blind stab at throwing 800k-1m plus at this house.
Probably worth more if the grass was green
That’s not a bungalow. Its a 1/2 duplex.
Look again.
Doesn’t change the fact that it’s half off assessed.
Assessment means nothing.
That’s cash money laundering if you haven’t figured it out yet.
But it hasn’t sold yet so no cash has exchanged hands.
You keep repeating this blatant error, fake news guy.
7820, the other side of the duplex, was also listed until a week ago (R2301351). That address doesn’t show up on the BC Assessment website, but the house number is clearly visible in the photos that are on 7818’s listing.
So I’m going to make a bold guess that the original property was only recently split in half and the assessed value was for the whole.
Either way there’s something weird about this which demonstrates once again how futile cherry-picking examples is. No need to get so excited.
Here are Vancouver’s remaining illegal hotels: https://www.airbnb.ca/s/Vancouver–BC/homes?refinement_paths%5B%5D=%2Fhomes&query=Vancouver%2C%20BC&min_bedrooms=5&room_types%5B%5D=Entire%20home%2Fapt&map_toggle=true&allow_override%5B%5D=&checkin=2018-10-23&checkout=2018-10-27&zoom=12&search_by_map=true&sw_lat=49.197383638327&sw_lng=-123.21913083726144&ne_lat=49.30367085806849&ne_lng=-123.08244159726973&s_tag=nSRSDl3O
No wonder the city cant shut this down…the people running them are so sneaky and know how to hide…
Maybe expanding the communication staff at COV will help combat this!
Metro Vancouver sees house prices edge lower for 2 straight months
https://www.citynews1130.com/2018/09/05/metro-vancouver-house-prices/
Detached home prices fell 2.8 per cent since May to $1,561,000, which is also down 3.1 per cent compared to the previous August.
Attached home prices fell 0.8 per cent to $846,100 since May, but rose 7.9 per cent compared to August 2017.
Condominium prices also dropped since May by 1.6 per cent to $695,500 — up 10.3 per cent from the same time last year.