One decade since the US Housing Bubble bust

Wow, time flies when you’re having fun!

Did you know that it was ten years ago that the US financial system had a little stumble due to over exuberance in the housing market?

10 years is a long time, but it’s how long it took at least one guy to sell his house.

That guy figures he lost about 60K over those ten years on a house he paid $137k for.

Fortunately in Vancouver there are no $137k houses so that can’t happen here.

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paulb
Member

New
266
Price Change
130
Sold
99
TI:13418

http://www.clivestevepaul.com

Specuskeptic
Member

If I keep bleating “Peeeeeeak”, I’ll be right…. eventually.

Best place on meth
Member
Best place on meth

Awww….still no 100+ sales day in Sept. but that was damn close!

Maybe tomorrow, 12th times the charm as they say.

MAKE TRUDEAU A DRAMA TEACHER AGAIN
Guest
MAKE TRUDEAU A DRAMA TEACHER AGAIN

Oracle tried that tactic.

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

This is still very low inventory by historical standards. It’s about 500 above where I called peak.

Are you jumping up and down with joy? Prices need to fall for the sub $1 million before you should do that.

Dave
Member

I think it will peak sometime in the next six weeks as unsold home listings expire. People won’t renew their listings over the Winter. But, they’ll probably rush to list in February at the first sight of sunshine.

So, I expect we’ll drop from the peak, whatever that number is, but quickly bounce back early in 2019. I think it’s going to take listings on the order of 20,000 before we see some real panic.

Diadora
Guest
Diadora

Revealed: how Canada border agency tried to conceal Chinese immigration mega-fraud files from tax collectors
https://www.scmp.com/news/world/united-states-canada/article/2164782/revealed-how-canada-border-agency-tried-conceal

Ralph
Guest
Ralph

Aren’t they supposed to be on the same side ?

patriotz
Member

“Cullen’s April 8, 2013, ruling describes the respondents attempting to withhold from the CRA 90 boxes of files and 18 computers that were seized from Wang by the CBSA in 2012 raids. The CRA’s demand for the material was an invasion of privacy, the respondents said, and the tax agents should be required to demonstrate probable grounds for suspicion of an offence – but not based on the contents of the actual documents being sought.”

Take note of the dates.

Best place on meth
Member
Best place on meth

Keep an eye on US 10 year bond yield over the coming days, it’s been coiling up like a tight spring over the last few months and looking primed for a significant breakout.

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui

Best place on meth
Member
Best place on meth
Doomcouver
Guest
Doomcouver

Ironic this information is getting out at the same time realtors are incentivized to lie most to their clients: right before a massive real estate crash.

MAKE TRUDEAU A DRAMA TEACHER AGAIN
Guest
MAKE TRUDEAU A DRAMA TEACHER AGAIN

Wonder when Le Homes will be releasing it?

YVR
Guest
YVR

NDPer Larry Campbell exposed as an senior operative in the money laundering scandal.

B.C.’s River Rock Casino has been called the epicentre of money laundering by international organized crime groups. Throughout the troubles, Sen. Larry Campbell has collected more than $800,000 in cash compensation and about $2.1 million worth of shares as a board director of the company that owns the casino, Great Canadian Gaming. On Tuesday, he declined to answer questions about whether his twin roles could put him in a conflict of interest.

https://globalnews.ca/news/4461524/larry-campbell-refuses-answer-questions-great-canadian-gaming/

YVR
Guest
YVR

Campbell has ties to the B.C. NDP, federal Liberals, and Vancouver’s Vision party. Campbell started the Vision Vancouver party along with a group of political allies including his former chief of staff, Geoff Meggs. Meggs is now chief of staff for B.C. Premier John Horgan.

How long before Eby gets appointed to the board at the casino?

YVR
Guest
YVR

Peter German also getting called out with ties to the casino VIP gaming program

critics are alleging that British Columbia’s independent probe of casino money laundering was compromised because reviewer Peter German sits on the board of Richmond’s Olympic Oval with the Great Canadian Gaming executive who is responsible for River Rock Casino’s troubled VIP gaming program. Soo has built River Rock’s high-limit gaming program, and is responsible for landing “whale” gamblers from overseas and maintaining relations with these clients, who have delivered hundreds of millions in revenues to Great Canadian and B.C.’s government.

https://globalnews.ca/news/4391856/exclusive-peter-german-denies-conflict-in-b-c-casino-probe-despite-sitting-on-board-with-casino-executive/

YVR
Guest
YVR

Where is Eby? He forgot to mention any of this in his press conference. No wonder there will be no public inquiry. This was an NDP scam from day one.

YVR
Guest
YVR

Nothing to see here folks

COQUITLAM, BC, June 5, 2018 /CNW/ – Great Canadian Gaming Corporation [TSX: GC] (the “Company”) is pleased to announce today that it has signed new operational services agreements (the “Agreements”) with the British Columbia Lottery Corporation (“BCLC”), in respect of its gaming facilities in British Columbia. The Agreements are for terms of 20 years

https://www.newswire.ca/news-releases/new-operating-agreements-executed-with-british-columbia-lottery-corporation-684577611.html

Bag it and tag it
Member
Bag it and tag it

You really are getting desperate. So you’re saying if we want honesty and integrity, vote for the Liberals? They had nothing to do with the money laundering scandal…is that right?

YVR
Guest
YVR

Is that all you can come up with every time the NDP is exposed for corruption?

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

you can’t help the dumb YVR.

Let them cheer whoever they want. NDP could sleep with their wives and they’d still be cheering for them. Haha

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

No. He is open your eyes.

A year plus later and ‘studies’? Give your head a shake.

No one has been jailed let alone charged.

patriotz
Member

First Debate Shows Vancouver Election Is Kennedy Stewart’s to Lose

“I like to say there are three NPA candidates in this race,” Stewart said, alluding to the fact that both Bremner and Young at one point sought the NPA’s nomination. “So you have your choice.”

Which about sums it up. One thing the article didn’t mention is that two of the major candidates on the right are ethnic Chinese, which will split their vote and also work in Stewart’s favour.

MAKE TRUDEAU A DRAMA TEACHER AGAIN
Guest
MAKE TRUDEAU A DRAMA TEACHER AGAIN

I wonder how low the turn out will be?

Will anyone be willing tell us who they are voting for and why?

patriotz
Member

“Will anyone be willing tell us who they are voting for and why?”

Jim Watson. 🙂 And that brings me to – how many posters actually live in CoV? I don’t now and I’ve been up front about it. But back when I lived in CoV, I found that the biggest critics of city council were people who didn’t actually live there.

MAKE TRUDEAU A DRAMA TEACHER AGAIN
Guest
MAKE TRUDEAU A DRAMA TEACHER AGAIN

I do and I have no idea at all who to vote for.

YVR
Guest
YVR

Kennedy Stewart would be awesome. Geggor Robertson part deux. We know how that worked out.

Hyper-mega-Bull
Member
Hyper-mega-Bull

>10 years is a long time, but it’s how long it took at least one guy to sell his house.

bears have been wrong about vancouver housing market for MORE than 10 years. now THAT’S a long time!

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

They’ll be cheering the NDP and Eby for another 10 years and 20 years later they’ll realize nothing has been done.

Doomcouver
Guest
Doomcouver

Most of the pragmatic bears will tell you the crash is inevitable, but guessing one precise time when it will crash is not knowable. FYI when a speculative mania goes on for 2 decades it doesn’t make that particular asset more resistant to correction. It’s actually the opposite of that it makes the peak to trough correction more dramatic.

KickThemOut
Member
KickThemOut

So 2 decades and it’s a mania, not a bull market? Still claiming to be right even though you are so far behind that a 75% crash wouldn’t be enough to breakeven?

Stratahacker
Guest
Stratahacker

The end of the world is inevitable too. So what?

KickThemOut
Member
KickThemOut

Apparently bears live forever!

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

Renters: herebis an ugly prospect. If 2 seniors are renting and one passes away then the lone senior wouldn’t have enough income to pay the increasing rents. Result: out on the street.

Have you minions thought about these type of scenarios or would you just blindly cheer the GreeNDP? The time for results was yesterday.

Way too late yet you keep cheering them on.

Doomcouver
Guest
Doomcouver

If you have a landlord that always raises your rent by the maximum allowed, I think it’s time to move anyways.

KickThemOut
Member
KickThemOut

Because there are just so many cheaper alternatives out there right now? For a group of people who are winning financially, subsidized by their landlords, and living the great life with Canuck games, annual Europe trips, kids activities / camps, etc, you sure seem to be very glum, angry, and jealous all the time. What gives if life is so wonderful as a renter?

MAKE TRUDEAU A DRAMA TEACHER AGAIN!
Guest
MAKE TRUDEAU A DRAMA TEACHER AGAIN!

I’m not glum, angry or jealous. I feel great!

My landlord just put a new $3,000 gas range in and I booked a family holiday to Mexico over New Years.

I love being a renter. Its only people like you who seem to have a problem with it.

Ralph
Guest
Ralph

Indeed.
I’m certainly not glum, angry, and jealous all the time.

MAKE TRUDEAU A DRAMA TEACHER AGAIN!
Guest
MAKE TRUDEAU A DRAMA TEACHER AGAIN!
Sorry Oracle I guess Grandma and Grandpa and selling to your cousins anytime soon. Our willingness to keep running up debt is starting to fade, finally. The most recent evidence came Wednesday in a report by the credit-monitoring firm TransUnion that shows the average non-mortgage debt level per consumer rose 3.9 per cent to $29,648 in the second quarter of this year compared with 4.1 per cent in the same period last year. That may sound bad, but it’s the third straight quarter in which the growth rate in borrowing fell below year-earlier levels. But the TransUnion report also tells a worrying story about debt growth among seniors: The volume of new mortgages set up by what TransUnion calls the “silent/pre-war generation” (between the ages of 73 to 93) surged by 63 per cent on a year-over-year basis in the… Read more »
Shut It Down Already (original)
Guest
Shut It Down Already (original)

People are putting groceries on their credit card to allow them to keep up with the mortgage?

MAKE TRUDEAU A DRAMA TEACHER AGAIN!
Guest
MAKE TRUDEAU A DRAMA TEACHER AGAIN!

Remind us who voted them in?

KickThemOut
Member
KickThemOut

Why is our great game being played in Earth’s shithole?
https://www.nhl.com/news/calgary-flames-boston-bruins-preseason-recap/c-300241550

patriotz
Member

Bettman would engrave Mao’s likeness on the Stanley Cup for the right price.

Best place on meth
Member
Best place on meth

That’s anti-semetic!

Best place on meth
Member
Best place on meth

Having to play in china means that both teams were losers.

KickThemOut
Member
KickThemOut

China increasing its belligerence and aggressiveness by participating in drills with Russia. SCS, Taiwan, India, US, Syria, and Xinjiang are all targets now. Trump is not doing enough to curve Chinese aggression!

https://www.businessinsider.com/china-turns-to-russia-to-fix-big-military-weakness-during-war-games-2018-9?utm_source=quora&utm_medium=referral

West Coast Woman
Guest
West Coast Woman

It seems like the provincial government is finally looking behind the veil of trusts and corporate ownership to determine who really owns residential properties in this province.

There is a new property transfer tax return (version 31) that takes effect on September 17, 2018. As of that date, the new PTT return will require information on all beneficiaries of certain trusts and corporate interest holders, including their name, contact information, tax identifiers (SIN, ITN, BN) and citizenship.

MAKE TRUDEAU A DRAMA TEACHER AGAIN
Guest
MAKE TRUDEAU A DRAMA TEACHER AGAIN

Can you provide anything to back this up. I can’t find anything and I would think big news like this would be front page

patriotz
Member

Found this in seconds using Google. Also I recall someone mentioning it on this forum a month or two back.

https://www.lawsociety.bc.ca/about-us/news-and-publications/news/2018/new-property-transfer-tax-return%c2%a0requirements-in-e/

Doomcouver
Guest
Doomcouver

I guess it’s not retroactive because this is a reform to the property transfer tax form, but it’s a good start. It will probably further push moneyed Chinese out of the market. The noose is tightening on high Vancouver house prices. The collapse could literally be months or even weeks away at this point. We’ll see…

Bag it and tag it
Member
Bag it and tag it

I recall them work working on something separate that will be retroactive..

paulb
Member

New
227
Price Change
109
Sold
99
TI:13472

http://www.clivestevepaul.com

Best place on meth
Member
Best place on meth

Still…..can’t…..get…..over…………100 sales!

Aaarrrggghhhhh!!!!

Best place on meth
Member
Best place on meth

Peak inventory is so elusive.

Maybe it’s not really a number, but a state of mind.

Best place on meth
Member
Best place on meth

My sources are telling me the NDP are going to announce a reduction to the max rent increase shortly.

Mostly likely in the neighborhood of 2.5% rather than the original 4.5%.

Silly minions.

Doomcouver
Guest
Doomcouver

2.5% seems pretty drastic to me, considering our inflation is revving at around 2.2-2.5% currently. I think 3.5% would be the most pragmatic maximum increase (aka. inflation +1%).

YVR
Guest
YVR

Horgan is scared shtless to do anything. More studies to come.

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

more shenanigans from the same cast of characters…

Court asked to rule on Chinese characters on Vancouver election ballots
https://vancouversun.com/news/local-news/court-asked-to-rule-on-chinese-characters-on-vancouver-election-ballots

Best place on meth
Member
Best place on meth

Get that chinese shit off our ballots!

Laibach
Member
Laibach

Right, we already have a shitload of it everywhere else.

Doomcouver
Guest
Doomcouver

English or French, we need to force these ethnic enclaves to choose one or GTFO.

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

Thanks to a new agreement between Tourism Richmond and local businesses through Alipay’s mobile payment platform, Richmond merchants will soon be able to better market to Chinese tourists
https://www.richmond-news.com/business/richmond-businesses-to-become-china-ready-with-alipay-partnership-1.23435931

Laibach
Member
Laibach

Oracle, care to comment please, you know what this is? It sounds like a major fraud platform (C2C, Chinese to Chinese platform) to avoid taxes, smuggle and launder money.

“According to China Travel Outbound, 90 per cent of Chinese travelers use mobile payment options when going overseas and 91 per cent say that availability of mobile payment systems would encourage them to spend more abroad.”

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

a story about mayoral candidate Hong Guo, a company called Vancouver Soho and more missing millions was about to be published in Richmond News but was suddenly taken down for reasons unknown…

https://tinyurl.com/yab9moo7

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

huh, this was totally wiped off google’s servers too…

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29
Doomcouver
Guest
Doomcouver

Does city council honestly believe this will help with affordability? You can already have 3 families living on a single lot, and there are tons of illegal and legal suites on these properties. Duplexes will be just as unaffordable as single detached, this is just a way to line the pockets of homeowners and developers even more. Not like it’s going to matter much longer, the credit bubble is starting to tear at the seams and the unwinding will likely accelerate very soon.

YVR
Guest
YVR

They just increased SFH land values by 20%. The problem with these lefty’s is they have no clue.

Best place on meth
Member
Best place on meth

Mid month stats

https://dexterrealty.com/current-market-conditions.html

Overall MOI jumped from 6 to 9, in other words a perfectly balanced market turned deeply into a buyers market.

Some of the sub market stats show a total collapse.

MAKE TRUDEAU A DRAMA TEACHER AGAIN
Guest
MAKE TRUDEAU A DRAMA TEACHER AGAIN

Love it!!

MAKE TRUDEAU A DRAMA TEACHER AGAIN
Guest
MAKE TRUDEAU A DRAMA TEACHER AGAIN

I love this gem from their report

“It seems the market is a little more stuck both in terms of sales and listings, keeping inventories in check for the most part. So buyers are benefitting from some inventories increases, but are benefitting more from the lack of competition. Making for opportunities that haven’t been seen since 2012 and 2013.”

Doomcouver
Guest
Doomcouver

Wow sales to list ratio in west van is 7%. I have a feeling West Vancouver is the canary in the coal mine for when the broader housing market will collapse. There has to be some pretty frustrated sellers fighting inevitable capitulation at this point. If I’m right the selling to list price ratio will crash first. It’s already at 88% which is pretty bad. House listed at $3 mil would be sold for 2.6, and it’s only going to get worse. Keep an eye on it and it could telegraph the pop weeks ahead of time. I’ve got my popcorn ready.

MAKE TRUDEAU A DRAMA TEACHER AGAIN
Guest
MAKE TRUDEAU A DRAMA TEACHER AGAIN
Pathetic! In its quest to lure coveted entrepreneurs to the province, PEI set up rules that granted immediate permanent resident status in Canada upon arrival, in return for promises to operate a business in the province for one year. The government required them to put $200,000 in escrow until they fulfilled their one-year commitments. If they failed to do so, they would forfeit their escrow deposits – but they got to keep their permanent residency in Canada.
That set PEI’s bar lower than than in other provinces – where, typically, entrepreneurs are initially granted work permits, and only qualify for permanent resident status once they fulfill their residency and business requirements. Critics said the lax conditions made PEI an easy mark for immigrants who wanted to gain entry to Canada, but who had little intention to stick around and invest in… Read more »
Bag it and tag it
Member
Bag it and tag it

How the fuck did provinces ever get to the point where they’re allowed to grant PRs that are valid in other provinces…mind boggling.

Bag it and tag it
Member
Bag it and tag it

BC should set up a scheme where we charge $200K for PR status with the only stipulation being that they’re not allowed to live in BC.

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

Guess how population is counted?

And some minions still think Vancouver only gets 32,000 immigrants per year because stascan says so.

patriotz
Member

“How the fuck did provinces ever get to the point where they’re allowed to grant PRs that are valid in other provinces…mind boggling.”

Right from 1867 the provinces have had shared jurisdiction over immigration, with the proviso that federal jurisdiction must prevail in case of conflict. All provinces including BC have arrangements with the feds that allow them to select immigrants. The PR visa itself is issued by the feds and the Constitution guarantees that PR’s have the right to live anywhere in Canada.

Just me
Guest
Just me

Treasury Yields Take Flight, Setting Up Big Shorts for Rewards

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-09-19/treasury-yields-take-flight-setting-up-big-shorts-for-rewards?srnd=premium-canada

“Yields on all maturities have taken flight this week, with longer-dated rates leading the charge higher.”

Unless our government and central banks go totally bonkers, a credit shock is materializing. Hold on to your cash.

Just me
Guest
Just me
Just me
Guest
Just me

And….”City council approves re-zoning major parts of Vancouver to allow duplexes”.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/city-council-approves-re-zoning-major-parts-of-vancouver-to-allow-duplexes-1.4830973

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

This is massive. Going to be a frenzy happening for all corner lots in the city.

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

Anyone wanna go 50:50 with me in south Van.? Buy a tear down at $1.4 million and we can each build a duplex.

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

Lol. How many times have we heard this before.

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

Vancouver just upzoned all single family housing.

Now a duplex will start at millions. And a single detached will become pricier.

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

yup, but too bad for the many 1000’s who already did the tear down and rebuild. and for those that did and are now renting out space on airbnb or elsewhere legitimately (because they have to), they can’t pursue this option either as short term rentals for duplexes, coach homes etc aren’t allowed

Stratahacker
Guest
Stratahacker

Wrong. You can run 2 Airbnb’s in a duplex. Legally.

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29
you have no clue what you’re talking about. you can only airbnb in principle residence now. if you rebuild det home into duplex, you are effectively creating two separate legal addresses and only a portion of the half that the owner (presumably) uses as a principal residence can be rented out short term. the other duplex would then be classified as a secondary property. sure maybe one could rearrange the deck chairs and transfer title of unit 2 to an associate (who will then use that as principal residence) but you’d be playing with fire imho. so the dilemna for those that just built a det dream home complete with basement suite is that it would be cost prohibitive to rebuild again not to mention the creation of a secondary address (which would apply to coach homes too) would limit… Read more »
bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

and to think that all this happened in that particular order (ie. with the ban on short term rentals, vacancy etc coming first) followed by the rezoning must have surely been Robertson’s plan all along. so, basically if you want to tear down and rebuild with the intention of renting out one or both units, the owner can essentially only do so on a long term basis and any short term activity must be licensed, monitored and restricted to only the unit you are living in

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

Watch detached sales in vancouver go up massively. Especially corner lots with street access on two sides.

Basically can build two homes with street frontage.

Buy for $1.4 million. Basically equates to a $700,000 building lot. $300,000 to. Hold with suite. Total is $1 million. Suite generates $2000/month. Remaining mortgage $600,000.

Chinese going to go crazy now.

Simple Solution
Member
Simple Solution

OK… quick back of the napkin math…. 33 ft lot usually around 4000sq ft… .7 FSR = 2800 Sq ft

1400 sq ft per side… your hypothetical/fantasy 2k a month suite will be how many sq ft?

The best part of your analysis is the 300K building cost for 1400 sq ft… $214 a square foot. you are fucking hilarious….

Ralph
Guest
Ralph

IDK why Oracle continues to embarrass himself on this blog. May he has a mental problem of some sort.

southseacompany
Member
southseacompany

“Mortgages Soar For Canadians In Their 80s, 90s”, Huffington Post

https://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2018/09/19/mortgage-seniors-canada-transunion_a_23532574/

“The number of mortgages issued to people in the pre-war generation — aged 73 to 93 — jumped by a whopping 63 per cent in the first quarter of this year according to a new report from credit agency TransUnion, and the report suggests helping family members with a down payment may be one of the primary reasons.”

“Mortgages also jumped by 18 per cent among baby boomers aged 54 to 72, compared to a year earlier, the report found.”

southseacompany
Member
southseacompany

“B.C. home sales forecast to slide further next year”, Vancouver Is Awesome

https://www.vancouverisawesome.com/2018/09/19/bc-home-sales-forecast-2018/

“The CREA’s latest updated home sales forecast predicts an overall annual decline of 22.2 per cent, to 80,700 resale units sold in B.C. in 2018. That’s a significant downward revision from previous forecast. It’s also lower than the annual decline seen so far in year-to-date sales, currently down 21.3 per cent, according to the latest B.C. Real Estate Association figures.”

“The CREA is also predicting a further slight decline in home sales next year, to a total of 80,400 transactions in 2019 – a drop of 0.4 per cent and also lower than the previous forecast.”

Bag it and tag it
Member
Bag it and tag it

Yup, always revise down once they have no choice, but then paint a more stable picture for next year…standard stuff.