It’s the end of another work week and that means it’s time for another Friday Free-for-all!
This is our regular end of the week open topic discussion thread for the weekend.
So what are you seeing out there? Post your news links, thoughts and anecdotes in the comments below and have a fantastic weekend!
Fake news? Don’t rents are going through the roof according to folks with sources and connections?
“High-end house rents plunge up to 20% as inventory spikes”
https://www.vancouverisawesome.com/2018/10/22/high-end-house-rentals-vancouver/
Best 5 year fixed on ratehub has increased to 3.33%.
That’s the highest inventory of the year, and still not the peak.
New
233
Price Change
163
Sold
54
TI:13781
Must be the lowest sold number in October!
Still not reaching 14k by the end of October
Even a flat inventory change MOM is bearish for October. 54 sales after a sunny week in the Fall market is very bearish.
The only positive that can be taken from the numbers is that total inventory is still at modest levels. The market isn’t going to crash until inventory goes through the roof.
I’ve looked at October’s all the way back to 2011.
Nothing this low.
It’s the lowest in my data. Here is a chart going back to 2012. There is missing data – sorry – but it does paint a picture. https://goo.gl/FJ1ivz
We received our PR forms today(Monday)…which means they were mailed last week before the civic election.
So did relatives on the Island.
Don’t trust NDP and GREENS as far as I can throw them…
Do you think it’s just possible that Elections BC had distributed them to Canada Post for delivery today?
Yeah…so whats your point? ( besides kneejerk addiction to respond ).
People, the Referendum Ballots are to be mailed out starting today. Make sure you get yours within the next 2 weeks.
Still undecided as to which way to vote. Voting No means crooks like the Liberals can unite the developers and reign havoc in the housing market. Voting Yes means more backroom politics.
Basically a no win situation. However, voting YES could mean that one gets to punish the NDP (for its failed election promises) and still vote Non-Liberal. It’s also means a new party can rise with 5% of the vote.
It’s hard to say if a YES or NO punishes the NDP. A YES vote hurts them in the long run as they will inevitably lose support to other parties. A NO vote could reward them in the sense that they’ll probably force a Spring election and would likely get a majority. But if they don’t, the NO would have punished them.
On the net, I think the NDP made a political mistake by rigging the vote towards YES. I think it would have been in their best interest to engineer the vote to fail.
Of course it makes total sense to permanently change our electoral system in order to feel like you’re spiting the party which happens to be temporarily in power.
Ya, I think a YES vote punishes the NDP. But if you’re a Liberal, it also punishes you. It only helps the Greens and the new wing nuts licking their lips at the potential of power.
It comes down to the basic fairness — the legitimacy — of our democratic system. Let the chips fall where they may.
“Of course it makes total sense to permanently change our electoral system ”
It isn’t permanent. The NDP have promised to hold a second referendum after a couple of elections to change back to FPTP if the voters want. In any case a future government can go back to FPTP without a referendum. There is no constitutional requirement in Canada for governments to hold a referendum on anything.
Of course. It’s not permanent in the sense that nothing is. Thanks, Captain Obvious.
How exactly are the NDP going to hold a second referendum anyway? They’d need a coalition to do so, so it’s a bit of an empty promise.
“How exactly are the NDP going to hold a second referendum anyway? They’d need a coalition to do so”
Where do you get that from? The Referendum Act gives the cabinet power to order a referendum any time it sees fit. Of course effecting the actual change would require an act of the Legislature, but that doesn’t require a coalition, just a majority of MLA’s who support it.
http://www.bclaws.ca/civix/document/id/complete/statreg/96400_01
Right, so it wouldn’t be the NDP holding the referendum. Because they’re not able to do so on their own. It’s an empty promise. What actual point are you trying to argue that’s not merely nitpicking?
“Homeowners worried about paying down debt as interest rates go up”, CBC
https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/cbc-survey-rising-interest-rates-household-debt-mortgage-1.4864965
“Thanks to years of access to cheap money, household debt has ballooned in Canada. Now that interest rates are rising, there are mounting concerns over how people will continue to pay down mountains of debt.”
If only somebody had warned them!
Oh wait….
Arsonist warns of potential fires…..
Drug dealer warns customers may become addicts….
😀
Here it is in a nutshell……
“Younger homeowners have never experienced a significant rise in interest rates”
🙂
“Vancouver Is The Fastest Cooling Real Estate Market In Canada, Toronto Not Far Behind”, Better Dwelling
“BC is home to the fastest cooling markets in Canada. The SNLR (Sales To New Listings Ratio) in Vancouver reached 50.7 in September, down 21.76% from last year. Fraser Valley fell to 56.4, down 20.23% from last year. Victoria fell to 63.6, down 16.43% from last year. Toronto was the fourth fastest falling market with a SNLR of 49, down 13.73% from last year. These markets all saw unsustainable growth, so a slow down shouldn’t surprise.”
So Vision didn’t run because it didn’t wanted to split the vote with its partner the NPA. Not surprised. If it did run, no NPA councillors would have got in. Mission accomplished.
Everyone cheering a China crash should remember that there are 325,000 Chinese Canadians in Hong Kong. Imagine if they came back. What would that do to housing? No wonder Chip is buying billions in land.
If there’s a Chinese credit collapse one of the first things the government will do is close the borders. I really can’t see a China credit crash causing mass migration from China. It will cause a collapse in the global housing mania however.
On to the next vote people. Proportional Referendum. Thoughts on if it fails? Passes?
And anyone think a rogue NDP MLA will cross the floor (knowing Nanaimo seat vacant now)?
If the speaker were to resign, here is the seat count:
Libs 43
NDP 40
Greens 3
Vacant 1
Wow, none of you could stay up for the election results?
I predicted the mayor would be elected with under 40% of the vote, but I didn’t expect under 30%. Also congratulations to Jean (Mansion Tax) Swanson, who placed 4th for council. I think her first try for elected office was around 1980 and she finally made it.
If PR passes, that will be the norm Provincially too. The NDP will peak at under 30% support.
Hence why they have not done anything of significance in order to make it fail.
The new council will focus on reducing red tape. That’ll please the supplyists. But sadly, there’ll probably be no new taxes and/or airbnb restrictions.
NPA got 5 councillors in.
A MAJORITY.
Developers Party.
RIP Vancouver.
Developers outsmarted everyone. Get an independent mayor in but stack the council with NPA.
Minions won’t know what hit them.
Developers tried very hard to defeat Kennedy Stewart and failed, despite the NPA outspending him about 5:1.
I take that as a very good sign that the NDP’s electoral financing reforms are working to level the playing field. Still need to tighten them up more, but a good first test.
Read the bios of those NPA councillors.
They all promote rental housing, not condos.
At least Vision doesn’t have to worry about what to do with Wei Qiao Zhang, as not only did he finish a distant 25th but the entire party was wiped off the map.
Greens kicked ass.
Market rental housing at like $2800/1 bdrm?
“NPA got 5 councillors in. A MAJORITY.”
5/11 is not a majority.
Thank god bagel boy didn’t win.
That was too close for comfort.
Bagel boy has a 2.5 m dollar mortgage. Rates will decimate his finances.
After a few $3 million sale attempts failed, will the owner break even?
6012 Chancellor Blvd, UBC duplex, listed $1,888,000
http://www.realtylink.org/prop_search/Detail.cfm?MLS=R2315423&REBoards=All&From=MLS
Maintenance $1,032 / month
Date Comments
2018-Oct-12 Listed $1,888,000
2018-May-07 Listed for sale
2018-May-01 Expired $2,990,000
2017-Aug-11 Listed for sale
2017-Aug-11 Terminated $3,288,000
2017-Jun-23 Listed for sale
2016-Aug-10 Expired $2,598,000
2016-May-05 Listed for sale
2016-Jan-05 Terminated $2,150,000
2015-Feb-24 Sold $1,738,000
$1K a month is strata is about $200K in borrowing power. As a duplex why is the strata so high? Its obviously not a true duplex but a townhouse.
That unit should be $500K
It says it is a leasehold and not freehold in the Zola listing
t is leased land not freehold which helps explain why it hasn’t sold. The lease cost is $1,032.48 per month.
Residential Attached Building Type 1/2 Duplex Style 2 Storey w/Bsmt.
Ownership: Leasehold not prepaid-NonStrata
https://www.zolo.ca/vancouver-real-estate/6012-chancellor-boulevard
This is a good article, better than any written by our own incompetent media:
https://www.bloombergquint.com/pursuits/vancouver-is-drowning-in-chinese-money#gs.B799V_4
That is a good article. Well worth the 10 mins to read it.
Chip Wilson is worth an estimated $3.9 billion. He has 1/3 of his net worth in Vancouver real estate. That is $1.3 billion. Probably all held in bare trusts which the NDP have left untouched. Still a free for all out there. To profit from the deluge, he’s been buying up land all over town, especially in False Creek Flats, a derelict industrial area that’s slated for redevelopment. He estimates that about a third of his holdings are now in real estate. …Horgan and Eby might succeed in curbing the worst excesses, but set against one of the world’s largest-ever movements of funds, not to mention Vancouver’s own history, the provincial government is unlikely to prove much of an obstacle. There’s still a lot of money to be made on Vancouver’s eternal sure bet. That’s why, Wilson says, whenever he… Read more »
Chip Wilson LOL. The guy’s not Buffet, he’s not Zucks, he’s not Bezos, nor is he Mark Cuban. Heck he’s not even Schwarzman (CEO of Blackstone Group, lots of RE holdings). He’s not in the same league as these guys. If Van RE is so good, we should be having these guys poring money into this. What does that suggest? That there are way better investments than overlevaraged assets that don’t produce anything.
so says the guy who has nothing compared to Chip.
I’m going with Chip.
IN CHIP WE TRUST!
Why wouldn’t a guy who sells stretchy pants be a go to source for real estate expertise?
It makes perfect sense.
How do you know I have “nothing”?
That’s not what was said. They said you have nothing compared to Chip. But if you are a billionaire he probably owes you an apology.
The pumpers that live here are certainly giddy over it.
Basically NDP powerless to do anything because 40% of our economy real estate related. China inflows will continue. And Chip Wilson now has 33% of his wealth in land by buying up Eastside Vancouver real estate.
Not powerless. Of course they could correct the RE market with a stroke of a pen. Everything done so far is about collecting taxes and optics, not correcting RE prices. The NDP are as complicit with this bubble as anyone. After all they have been in power for coming up to 2 years and most of the housing stock prices are higher even with B20 and higher mortgage rates. Chip Wilson is as bullish as ever. Remember this is the guy who was Greggor Robertsons and Geoff Meggs (NDP) biggest supporter. Now Meggs is running the province pulling Horgans strings and we have NDPer Kennedy Stewart (Greggor part duex) ready to take over the City.
I was just stating what the article said.
Chip obviously knows more than we do. He is investing billions in land.
I’m throwing in the towel as soon as this minor correction is over. With high immigration, the only thing left will be 1 bdrm condos without parking to raise families.
Detached will go to $2 million if Chip is right. And why wouldn’t he be?
NDP has failed us.
Now time to fail the NDP ProRep.
Better get your chequebook ready!
If prices are going to go up that much why wait? Why take the risk you miss the rocket ship? You should be buying today!
Please tell us when you pull the trigger.
Anyone remember Nelson Skalbania? What goes up….
” Yet as Wilson explains, sitting in his office on the top floor of a century-old warehouse, these days he’s as interested in bricks and mortar as in quick-drying fabrics. “The global capital flowing out of China across the world, you’d have to be an idiot not to acknowledge it,” he says. “You know, we could just be at the cusp of that.” To profit from the deluge, he’s been buying up land all over town, especially in False Creek Flats, a derelict industrial area that’s slated for redevelopment. He estimates that about a third of his holdings are now in real estate. British Columbia’s current government may succeed in slowing inflows temporarily, Wilson says, but China’s boom has created many multimillionaires who need a place to put their money. “So where do you go if you’re Chinese? Sydney, maybe.… Read more »
There’s another reason to hope for a massive Vancouver real-estate bust. Hopefully Chip uses lots of leverage.
Since this is election day, it’s worth noting that Chip Wilson and Ken Sim are good buddies — both of them are big Landmark Forum boosters.
>“The global capital flowing out of China across the world, you’d have to be an idiot not to acknowledge it,”
Patriotz.
But that is so last year ….
Yet another clown who doesn’t know how the avatars here work…
Not only would you have to be an idiot, ironically you’d have to be an idiot who calls everyone else “moron” in the case of VCI posters.
Imagine how desperate you’d have to be when you confuse Chip Wilson’s opinions with fact. He’s probably lots tens of millions of dollars these last few months so it’s unsurprising he’d try to stoke the “dumb foreigners buy everything!” sentiment one more time. I guess you must enjoy reading yourself that fairytale every night.
Meanwhile your idiot friends and family are tripping over themselves to land a million dollars in mortgage debt, because after all “real estate always goes up!”
” British Columbia’s current government may succeed in slowing inflows temporarily, Wilson says, but China’s boom has created many multimillionaires who need a place to put their money. “So where do you go if you’re Chinese? Sydney, maybe. But nowhere, probably, is more friendly than Vancouver.” One way or another, he says, those funds will find their way to Canada.”
Yet another document how the global vermin managed to conquer the city with the help of local snakes and totally fuck it up during the process. It just proves that only a strict ban and hard stop of all of the shit could somehow get the city on the path of recovery and possible survival in the next 50 years.
One way or another is definitely a truism. Wilson knows the government and people don’t want this money flooding in but he still expects it to occur. That’s how little he thinks of our bureaucrats. I think that too and I also think some chicks don’t look good in yoga pants.
Looks like the party that wants LRT in Surrey wants it on every major road.
Here’s he catch. The condos to be built along it won’t be required to have parking stalls for 50% of the units. Wow.
So that’s how they are going to pack more people in without adding to traffic. Great. 1 bdrm Eco friendly family condo priced to sell at $800,000. Save the environment by not having a car.
This will push 1 bdrm condos with a parking spot even higher.
You know what, Oracle? You are a real idiot.
What part of the post are you angry about? Leave emotions out of this. Won’t get you anywhere.
This is a goal of developers. To reduce required parking spots for condo residents. This has a whole range of benefits for the developer.
Look at townhomes. Developers successfully petitioned that they don’t need driveways. And viola!
Many townhome complexes have underground parking.
Cost of bullet proof glass may be the tipping point….
They do this for many new condos near the Canada line. Not a surprise. Main difference though is you can get by without a car in Vancouver as the transit system is good (we get by with one car and I take the train and bus to work. Not much faster by car) and there’s car2go and Evo which makes owning a car a chore actually. LRT will be slow and everything is still so spread out in surrey it’ll be 50-100 years before surrey looks anything like vancouver. People will still need to drive in surrey.
I hear you but they are going in the direction of waiving a parking spot for any condos within a X distance of rapid transit line. That’s why the drive for LRT.
Much more profit for developer as much easier to build when the underground structure is much smaller.
New
126
Price Change
76
Sold
72
TI:13748
Vision Drops Wei Qiao Zhang from their candidates.
I wonder what he did? Hopefully it comes out. If he’s elected vision said he’ll sit as an independent.
https://globalnews.ca/news/4574319/vision-vancouver-dumps-wei-qiao-zhang/
Maybe he was against bike lanes.
FYI:
Pumpkins have the legal right to vote in Richmond……..rutabaga, turnips and rhubarb are lobbying for the same.
4Q’d either way…. One radio report from CMHC stating 1/4 of mortgage holders are finding it difficult to make mortgage payments(which usually means the actual number is quite higher.) Regardless..that is enough to set in motion a lot of downside in overall RE market. ===================================== Re: Price drops and affordability: Also a person posting on GT site made some good points stating that even if prices took a large haircut, many are effectively priced out given the higher cost of borrowing. …aka even if prices drop 50%….there will not be any major buying spree. Pretty clear we are in the midst of a down cycle…and history shows it takes years to reboot and “inflate” once momentum dissipates. People have to realize that love it or hate it…much RE buying requires holding ones nose and taking the plunge and keeping fingers… Read more »
Sorry guys, just another follow up to the Entries RSS link off the WordPress homepage for vancouvercondo.info. The Entries RSS link only provides current data if the user is “logged in”, otherwise it shows data back from January 2018, 10 months old. I can reproduce this by logging in and then clicking the Link or logging out and clicking it again. It shows different data depending. The trouble is that RSS readers like Feedly which I use to monitor posts on all my blogs will not be “logged in” when they monitor the Entries RSS feed and therefore it never shows any updated data. Can the admin check the WordPress settings and make the RSS feed publishing is available to users that aren’t logged in? Then things should work as intended. Thank you. By the way, long time reader, over… Read more »
You only lost $830,000+ after one year (assessed $7,035,000)
4498 W 7TH AVENUE, Vancouver west
2018-Oct-05 Sold $6,450,000
2017-Nov-14 Sold $7,280,000
I love this kind of intel! Thanks for posting.
Someone just bought this lot for $3.36 million (assessed $4.142 million)
4446 W. 6th Ave, Vancouver West side
https://www.zolo.ca/vancouver-real-estate/4446-west-6th-avenue
PriceActivitySold Date
$795,000 Sold 11/29/00
$460,000 Sold 01/29/92
Using simple averages Increase of 73% in 9 years = 8.1% per year Increase of 322% in the following 18 = 17.9% per year – and this is well off the high which was prob. assessed at 4.14 mil which was 421% increased or 23.4% per year. Over this period wages prob. averaged 2-3% annual growth. Anyone who denies HAM is a fool. I believe the very long long term average of RE is inflation +1%. This means to get back to where this should be we are looking at a drop of 65% to $1,150,000 (which seems fair in my estimation and would still be more than in many desirable cities in the world) or for those who believe in the soft landing, a flat line in prices for 89 years for wages to catch up to values. People… Read more »
It’s not normal because of record immigration and illegal money inflows. Where else on the planet can you immigrate grandparents into anforst world country???
Until that is fixed. Nothing will be fixed.
Wages increased at only a small rate so it must be something else which extended peoples borrowing power. Now I wonder what that might be?
“Anyone who denies HAM is a fool”
Anybody who spends years on RE blog without learning how to compute CAGR is a fool.
At least you didn’t say dumbass,….. you f*cktwit.
“This means to get back to where this should be we are looking at a drop of 65% to $1,150,000”
Sounds about right. Don’t tell all the NDP boot lickers. They think $3.36M is a great deal because assessed is higher.
“Big Jump in Americans Saying Renting Is Cheaper Than Owning”, Wall Street Journal
https://www.wsj.com/articles/big-jump-in-americans-saying-renting-is-cheaper-than-owning-1539705295
“More than three-quarters of Americans now view renting as more affordable than owning a home, the latest sign that rising mortgage rates and higher home prices will continue to pressure home sales.”
US still a much better bargain than YVR! Check out 1506-388 Drake St.
Or buy for $1.2M.
https://sothebysrealty.ca/en/property/british-columbia/greater-vancouver-real-estate/vancouver-west/357165/
“Canadian inflation tumbles”
That’s the headlines today. How many here actually believe these fake statscan stats?
We should believe you instead ???
“Is Manhattan on the edge of a prime housing precipice?”, Financial Times
https://www.ft.com/content/db675edc-c7f2-11e8-86e6-19f5b7134d1c
“Even as developers have been reshaping Manhattan’s skyline with soaring residential towers, the local new-build market has been dropping like a stone.”
“The number of new homes sold in Manhattan in the year to September is down 39 per cent on the same period in 2017, according to new data from real estate firm Douglas Elliman. Median sale prices fell 9 per cent over the period.”
The coastal markets didn’t take a big hit ten years ago with the Great Recession, but they all benefited from the massive injection of liquidity globally. We’re now seeing real estate prices move down across the globe in these markets and obviously the driver is higher interest rates.
These trends are bigger than YVR, and that should be the scary part of this. Without a global downturn, we were getting a correction. With a global downturn, it will be that much deeper. I’m sure a lot of bears like reading that. While I am hoping for lower prices, anything more than 20% will cause serious economic pain that will affect all of us. But, maybe we need that.
Hmm. Price drops in Miami were in the neighborhood of 80%. Was that not a coastal market?
Nor is a global downturn necessarily appealing to Vancouver bears. More likely to lead to a global response, which could produce another decade of rock-bottom interest rates.
Miami doesn’t have Asians and Indians flooding it. Real estate investing is their religion.
Then how did their real estate become so overpriced?
Miami had rich South Americans flooding it and lots of them.
Their grandparents and parents weren’t allowed in.
Canada has entire extended families coming in.
But keep believing what’s you’re believing. You guys are so lost.
“Miami had rich South Americans flooding it and lots of them.”
Not surprisingly, this was used as a justification for the huge price runup circa 2001-2006. Didn’t stop the market from crashing though.
Every bubble has its fabricated scapegoat.
That makes absolutely no sense AIDS. Like the majority of your Sino-apologist garbage.
Your next 18 hr. shift at the factory making counterfeit Prada bags is about to start.
Boston, New York, Washington, Seattle, Portland, California and Vancouver is what I meant.
“The coastal markets didn’t take a big hit ten years ago with the Great Recession”
Peak to trough declines in Case-Shiller index:
Seattle 33%
San Francisco 45%
Los Angeles 41%
San Diego 42%
Vegas fell over 60%
Vegas counts as a coastal market due to the Venetian Hotel.
I agree that anything over 20% will cause serious economic pain and I agree maybe we need it. We have really painted ourselves into a corner. If the market doesn’t crash? Disaster. If it does crash? Disaster. Just different types of disaster.
Politicians have kicked the can so far down the road (ever since 1986) that the reckoning will be ugly however things turn out.
See comment above!
