Vancouver Condo Info

To be fair, if prices drop in half, it’s not like all borrowers are just going to default on their payments. Mortgages here are all recourse mortgages. I think the vast majority of people will begrudgingly continue paying the bank unless they lose their jobs and can’t pay.

The banks will love it because it’ll be next to impossible for borrowers to swap their mortgages to another institution, so they’ll be able to charge somewhat-higher interest rates at renewal (there will be few discounts at renewal for insured borrowers).

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stagnate

this is looking like the 90’s; we even have the same/matching government. inflation and interest rates are a bit more stubborn than I would have predicted. I think we’re in for a 20-40% haircut. massive immigration will become displaced pent up demand. lack of demand now, lack of supply a few years from now. know your town and know the ndp

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Laibach

20-40% haircut won’t bring order in the housing system let alone provide affordability for working locals. The haircut should be at least between 60-85% in order to get anywhere close to some economical sense, fundamentals, earnings, etc. The situation is so much out of whack that only tremendous price reduction can create any hopes for overall normalization and livability in this city. We went too far with this orgy called housing in the past 17 years, it is due for a massive reset.

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Oracle

Almost 750,000 people added to Bancouver in last 17 yrs.

High immigration means rents continue to go up and hence holds up prices on the low end.

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stagnate

unfortunately an ever increasing population on a fixed land mass in a fiat currency system means higher prices eventually.

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franko

Just because the dramatic swing in sales/listings this year is just now beginning to reflect on prices should not be surprising. The reason the lag is quite normal is because complacent owners don’t pay much attention to this sort of stuff until it’s too late. It should be obvious that the Vancouver bubble from 2015 to 2017 has rivaled any recent bubble in the world, and the consequences will be equally devastating. Looking at a chart of the southern California crash from July 2007 to February 2009 that resulted in a 50% decline over a year and a half, which could be a good example of what we can expect (sorry, too complicated to link). And we should remember that the US crash did not require a recession, but that it caused the recession along with the resulting financial crisis.… Read more »

Member

I sold my Richmond condo 4 months ago, for $740 per sq.ft.

Last week, a better unit in my building sold for $630 per sq.ft. The nicer unit was an outside SW corner (vs my non-corner inside unit), with tons of windows, and about 60 sq.ft larger. They were trying for much more, but the fact that this is all they could manage should indicate just how weak the market is right now (at least for condos).

More articles like this, and more inventory could push things down FAST if only a few sellers are willing to take large discounts to get out, as this seller did!

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Doomcouver

I agree. As the pool of buyers rapidly shrinks, the odds of some massive fire-sales at the margins is going up by the day. If we get a few desperate margin sellers taking 20-30% haircuts to liquidate, the panic in the broader market will likely happen. It’s almost there in detached in Vancouver, once it gets to condos and spreads to surrounding areas that’s really where you’ll see the SHTF.

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MAKE TRUDEAU A DRAMA TEACHER AGAIN

But what drop would be necessary for peoole here to think prices have reached ‘sane’ levels?

I know that most garbage tear downs I see on the East side that are $1.5 would have to drop to $500 to make sense to me. Even as an ardent bear I don’t ever see that happening. I have made peace with being a renter in Vancouver.

Member

For me personally, I have zero expectation of the market hitting what I think are reasonable pricing levels in a timeframe that works for me.

I’m shopping for a place that I like with payments that will allow me to retire at a reasonable age. When prices drop so that something hits my criteria, I’m buying. However, my criteria have gotten stricter since the spring, and they might get tighter still as the market drops.

Funny how the psychology works!

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Time to go

Agree with the statement re: East side garbage. Only builders or renovators would remotely be interested at those prices now that land speculation is dying. My partner and I looked at a 1.2mil detached home and it was barely livable and needed another 400k just to make it a place where you’d invite friends over. A very select few in this city have that kind of cash or skill set to take on that mess. But the neighborhoods are littered with those older homes that haven’t been renovated in decades. I don’t see a way out unless builders swoop in and start developing like mad.

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https://www.vancourier.com/real-estate/region-s-home-sales-plummet-43-5-in-september-1.23449529

@ Time to go, I feel the same way– in Richmond, old houses that are falling apart and have never seen any updates (or maybe some mediocre home-job renos) are asking $1.3+. For the most part, it seems that builders have exited the market, so these places just aren’t selling.

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oncebittwiceshy

… and Steve Saretsky on Twitter:

“Langley continues to turn heads. Condo inventory now up 214% from last September.

Hot damn! Condo inventory jumped 87% in the Fraser Valley. A few more months of weak sales should really do the trick.

Here comes your inventory. Greater Vancouver condo inventory jumped 75% Y/Y in September.”

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Laibach

Something is wrong. Weren’t Valley on fire, pricing-out all locals with townhouses going over a million.

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Simple Solution

so the only answer then is to build MOAR…. need MOAR 8s in the prices… MOAR direct flights to china… only that will save us

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Oracle

Check out the prices. Way too high.

Who cares about sales of prices don’t budge.

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Bag it and tag it

Just checked, avg price of Abby townhouse just dropped 8.5% MoM, ouch!!

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Bag it and tag it

FYI $440K from $481K

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Bag it and tag it

the composite benchmark price for the entire fraser valley dropped 2% MoM, ouch.

Guest

MAKE TRUDEAU A DRAMA TEACHER AGAIN

Oracle disagrees.

Call Steve a minion.

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Oracle

I just want to see much lower prices.

I don’t give a damn about inventory or sales.

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MAKE TRUDEAU A DRAMA TEACHER AGAIN

You are VCI’s very own Trump.

Member

Bag it and tag it

He’s more of a Kellyanne Conway

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southseacompany

“Region’s home sales plummet 43.5% in September”, Vancouver Courier

Dive, sink, down sharply, and now ‘plummet’

I like ‘plummet’.

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kabloona

“Plummet, collapse, plunge”…… it’s all good.

🙂

Member

If the market drops by more than 15-20%, it won’t be good. At that point, it will have caused a lot of economic damage and widespread pain.

Personally, I’m hoping for 30%…. 🙂

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Oracle

Yes. Me too and across the board.

Buying a detached in a Abby if that happens. Need to be about $600K

Member

3 points make a trend, so now we have a real trend of falling prices MOM. It wasn’t a plummet. The market moved down about 1% in Metro Vancouver. That’s not insignificant but it’s only 12% per year, which would be a moderate correction. A plummet would mean an acceleration of declining prices and that still might happen. The bear case would be Coquitlam, PoCo and Maple Ridge, which had big declines and the rapid growth of inventory in the Valley. Detached listings grew almost 50% in one month in Langley! Think about that one! The market is now getting squeezed from two sides… West Van and Van West (the high end of the market) were the first to head down and have incurred the greatest correction, but now the Valley is hitting the market on the other end (the… Read more »

Member

“That’s not insignificant but it’s only 12% per year, which would be a moderate correction. ”

If it only lasts a year. But you don’t get a double digit decline in a single year, preceded and followed by increases. By comparison, Seattle fell 33% over 5 years. 12% per year over 5 years would be a Las Vegas style crash.

Member

Yes you can. 2008, 2009 and 2010 did just that. Up, down and back up again. Similar thing in 2016, but not as deep. I won’t both looking but it’s probably also true of the early 80s and the 1989 correction too.

I’m not predicting a bounce, but it isn’t without precedent. You can have a decline and a quick recovery.

I’m predicting a moderate decline, followed by an ugly one should a recession hit in the next 18 months. If no recession in that timeframe, then a stagnant market and less of a secondary hit whenever we get a recession.

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Stand up for Canada

This is all about rates. Canadians are highly leveraged. It doesn’t matter if we have full employment. A modest 1% increase in mortgage rates translates to 10k more a year in interest for 1 million dollar mortgage. It is dang hard to pay off a million dollar mortgage esp with the way we are taxed here. (Everything over 200k is taxed at over 50%). And if you wanna sell? Sure except nobody can afford what you’re asking for so before long you will be under water as rates keep sliding up. And as for the naysayers that rates won’t go up. Sorry, but bond traders and the US fed (which will affect Canadian rates either via the currency or directly) really doesn’t give a rats ass about Canadians in debt and in over their head with housing. The only question… Read more »

Member

These are all good points. It’s true about 50% tax on higher income earners and how that relates to bigger mortgages. It’s actually worse than you portray because most people making that kind of money don’t realize the extra cash flow for a period of time after earning it, but you have to pay taxes first. It can easily lag a year. So let’s say I work harder and make another $20k. In the first year, that would cost me an extra $10k to do and then in Year 2, I actually see the extra money. So in your scenario of rising rates, I could be out $20k in the first year before getting it back a year later. And then it’s a wash. A lot of people get sick of hearing how high income earners complain about marginal taxes… Read more »

Member

“it’s probably also true of the early 80s ”

Nominal prices declined rapidly for 2 years (1981, 1982), bumped along a bottom for a few years, and didn’t get going up until 1986, which was the real price bottom. Real prices didn’t get back to peak until 2005. And for those who say nominal matters not real, remember you were paying for inflation through double digit interest rates.

Member

Your mortgage is in nominal dollars…. deal with it. Either way, I’m not sure what your original point was. Prices were falling faster in 2009 than they are now and they bounced back to their highs in no time. The reason for that is obvious… global recession followed by cheap money. The similarity between today and that market volume died off. In trading, volume is a measure of how serious the market is about that particular price level. High volumes have more meaning than low volumes. And that showed in the bounce. The lower prices on low volume didn’t have much meaning. The higher volumes on the bounce was the better predictor of subsequent years. So IMO… we want to see falling prices into higher volume, to confirm the market will continue downwards. We won’t know that until say April… Read more »

Member

“Prices were falling faster in 2009 than they are now and they bounced back to their highs in no time.”

Something to do with the biggest interest rate drop in history, I think. There’s only one rabbit in that hat.

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Stand up for Canada

You’re forgetting real estate is highly leveraged. If you bought in the last year with 20% down you are down 60% in your down payment (ignoring the minuscule amounts you would’ve paid off).

Member

Pretty much nobody is facing a negative equity position on a pre-sale right now. If the market keeps going down and stays there, absolutely, we’ll see more of it.

I don’t think this will be a big deal until prices are down 15 to 20% for a period of time, because at that point, the bank is unlikely to lend on zero to negative equity. We’re still a couple years away from this scenario IMO. It will probably hit the outlying areas first. A lot of developers out there are smaller and will struggle having to dump units at the time of completion. In contrast, the big developers in the City can wait it out and keep those units as rentals until the market improves.

Member

” It will probably hit the outlying areas first. ”

As has been noted here, West Side SFH area already down 15 to 20%.

Member

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/real-estate-board-reports-metro-165105543.html

How many SFH pre-sales do you think there are?

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MAKE TRUDEAU A DRAMA TEACHER AGAIN

Will we still keep hearing the ‘APPROVED!’ conmericals every 5 minutes?

Guest

Head Smashed in Real Estate Jump

As long as the headlines keep saying plummet.

Spook the herd.

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kabloona

“Real estate board reports Metro Vancouver home sales down sharply”

VANCOUVER — The Greater Vancouver Real Estate Board says home sales across the region in September plunged more than 40 per compared with the same month last year.

Statistics from the board show 1,595 homes changed hands in Metro Vancouver last month, a 43.5 per cent drop from the 2,821 sales recorded in September 2017.

The board says the result for last month also marked a 17.3 per cent decline when compared with sales in August.
September sales in Metro Vancouver were also 36 per cent below the 10-year sales average for the month.

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southseacompany

“Vancouver home sales sink in September as listings hit multi-year highs”, BNN

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/vancouver-home-sales-sink-in-september-as-listings-hit-multi-year-highs-1.1146273

Heading for the exits?

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southseacompany

“‘Buyers’ market’: Metro Vancouver home sales dive 40 per cent compared to this time last year”, Financial Post

https://business.financialpost.com/real-estate/real-estate-board-reports-metro-vancouver-home-sales-down-sharply

The headlines keep coming.

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Oracle

LNG a Go!! They pay zero taxes and royalty.

Site C a Go!! You pay.

TMX will soon be a GO! Courts excuse.

Ridesharing stopped!! NDP insider new app.

ICBC monopoly protected, rates up!!

No Bold housing action!! Blind trusts.

————————

Is this what you voted for?

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MAKE TRUDEAU A DRAMA TEACHER AGAIN

You voted for them dumbass.

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Bubble

After two years, still on the market (assessed $2,745,000)

6012 CHANCELLOR BOULEVARD
Date Comments MLS® Number
2018-May-07 Listed $2,888,000 R2265442
2018-May-01 Expired $2,990,000 R2196565
2017-Aug-11 Listed for sale R2196565
2017-Aug-11 Terminated $3,288,000 R2181514
2017-Jun-23 Listed for sale R2181514
2016-Aug-10 Expired $2,598,000 R2066223
2016-May-05 Listed for sale R2066223
2016-Jan-05 Terminated $2,150,000 V1125353
2015-Feb-24 Sold $1,738,000 V1097841

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Oracle

Who can afford these?

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Time to go

Even if you could, why would you want to spend 2.5mil on a half a house on leased land? Hoping for a foreign sucker that doesn’t understand what leased land is?

Member

“Hoping for a foreign sucker that doesn’t understand what leased land is?”

That’s all there is in China.

Member

Doomcouver

As expensive as our housing market is, our leasehold valuations are the most ridiculous. I wouldn’t be caught dead buying a leasehold unless it was dirt cheap. Freehold or bust.

Member

Something fishy about the listing. Well is it a strata or not?
https://www.rew.ca/properties/R2265442/6012-chancellor-boulevard-vancouver-bc

Strata Maintenance Fees $1,032
Title Leasehold prepaid-NonStrata

Member

https://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2018/10/02/vancouver-housing-demand_a_23548479/

Another incompetent realtor… According to BC Assessment, it’s part of strata plan BCS1436, which has 6 units.

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YVR

It is a strata on leasehold land. Worst of both worlds.

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Simple Solution

now with three 8s in the price!!! should go for sure!

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southseacompany

“Vancouver Housing Demand Drops Like A Rock, And Prices Are Now Falling”, Huffington Post

“With unsold listings piling up, the supply of homes for sale is spiking, putting downward pressure on prices, which are now falling all categories, and in most areas of British Columbia’s Lower Mainland.”

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southseacompany

“Housing market continues to cool in Metro Vancouver: Real Estate Board”, Global

https://globalnews.ca/news/4508734/vancouver-housing-market-cool/

“The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver says the supply of homes across Metro Vancouver continued to increase in September, while buyer demand remained below typical levels for this time of year.”

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KickThemOut

Fuck, when did the celebration of communist takeover of China became national holidays in Canada? Most of the fake sponsored employees didn’t show up again due to holiday and needing to attend to family visitors?? WTF? And yes, condo shopping is on the list.

Bitch about the weather is back in again. Apparently, they think rain can be controlled…

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Oracle

Weaver and the Greens upset that NDP is going to push LNG through with Liberal votes.

Then where the heck were the Greens on other issues in the election platform. Example. They and Liberals can pass their own version of ridesharing allowing Uber.

FFS the Greens are a corrupt bunch.

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southseacompany

“Manhattan real estate is now in a year-long correction “, CNBC

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/01/manhattan-real-estate-is-now-in-a-year-long-correction.html

“What started as a blip is now a year-long slump for Manhattan real estate. And it shows no signs of turning around.”

“The average price of a Manhattan apartment fell 4 percent during the quarter, to $1.93 million, while the median price fell 5 percent over the last year to $1.1 million. There is now a seven-month supply of apartments, up from five months in the third quarter of 2017”

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Simple Solution

that is because there is so much vacant land in Manhattan… in Vancouver we have no land

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Doomcouver

We have plenty of land around the GVR. Just pretend you’re a farmer and you can have all the ALR land you want.

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