Friday Free for all! November 9th, 2018

It’s the end of another glorious week and that means it’s time for another glorious Friday free-for-all!

This is our regular end of the week news round up and open topic discussion thread for the weekend.

So what are you seeing out there? Post your news links, thoughts and anecdotes in the comments below and have a fantastic (and glorious) weekend!

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[…] –Fraser Valley sales drop 50% –Public input on Real Estate dirty money –CMHC forecasts 11% drop in buying power –Free mortgage deal in Langley –Regulators take aim at HELOC growth […]

Ultra Bear
Guest
Ultra Bear
Oracle
Guest
Oracle

The people who continue to not believe immigration is the driving factor are basically priced out forever.

Any window remaining to buy a townhome will close within 12 months.

But cheer the epic crash. But in 5 years, make sure not to get priced out of condos.

Lost...but not leased
Guest
Lost...but not leased
The Political whores since Oct. 20 civic election COV council flip- flops on duplexes ? White Rock Council flip -flops on 12 storey towers ? City of Richmond Council turning into a cesspool. Size of Homes in ALR were capped at approx 11,000 sq. ft…this was challenged by Harold Steves and his ALR nutbar cult believers in May 2018….Richmond Council voted 6-3 for status quo. The day AFTER Richmond Council was sworn in, the FIRST order of business was to revisit the issue, ……AGAIN. How the f*ck did they move so fast? ALR Godfather Steves gloated that 2 veteran councillors lost( Dang and Johnston)..replaced by rookies Greene and Wolfe…..and that their side would have a 5-3 vote to reduce ALR house size . However…when Council voted….it was UNANIMOUS aka 9-0 vote to get rid of the old rules and revert… Read more »
Oracle
Guest
Oracle

Everyone who already has a permit to build a mansion in Richmond hit the jackpot. Those farm prices went UP after this.

You can’t build a mansion on any other ALR land without permits. So Steves doubled his net worth.

Shut It Down Already (original)
Guest
Shut It Down Already (original)

I know how you clowns love this sort of thing.

3401-499 Pacific, sold for $8.888m (asking price) on Nov 3rd after 100 dom. That’s $2400/sqft.

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

I’m going to cherry pick a sale that sold at assessment just to balance things out. Lol

Until sale prices are consistently 25% below assessments in ALL categories and ACROSS the lower mainland then no correction has really taken place.

And that’s what I’m seeing in the valley.

Shut It Down Already (original)
Guest
Shut It Down Already (original)

Who said anything about assessed value?

Best place on meth
Member
Best place on meth

No correction HAS taken place, because it currently IS taking place. In progress and in the early stages vs. completed.

Low end Surrey detached (bottom 50% of listings) peaked in June at $808K, now at $760K.

That’s 6% in 4 months, or 18% a year if the trend continues.

The upper 50% of detached are down 7.2% in the same period, so the whole Surrey market is pretty much moving in tandem, contrary to your proclamations that the sub million is holding steady.

That’s what I’m seeing in the valley.

Ultra Bear
Guest
Ultra Bear

You’re moving the goalposts I see…

Best place on meth
Member
Best place on meth

Interesting take on Airbnb

https://www.theepochtimes.com/san-franciscos-war-on-airbnb-is-a-war-on-the-free-market_2715403.html

San Francisco’s War on Airbnb Is a War on the Free Market
The city’s absurd fines, crackdowns show hostility for thrift

Madashell
Guest
Madashell

The Economic Collapse Of China! Nightmare Scenario For Beijing: 50 Million Apartments Are Empty
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0SXA5F_pSU8
When it pops, it will send china back to the stone age and their yen will be worthless.

Best place on meth
Member
Best place on meth

Electoral reform referendum voter turnout up to 18% as Elections BC changes way it updates numbers

https://globalnews.ca/news/4672010/electoral-reform-referendum-voter-turnout-elections-bc-numbers/

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

Chances are it’s going to fail. Should have done a 1 day vote coinciding with the municipal elections.

paulb
Member

New
110
Price Change
82
Sold
71
TI:13285

http://www.clivestevepaul.com

gottalaff
Guest
gottalaff

It’s the end of another glorious week and that means it’s time for another glorious Friday free-for-all!

This is our regular end of the week news round up and open topic discussion thread for the weekend.

So what are you seeing out there? Post your news links, thoughts and anecdotes in the comments below and have a fantastic (and glorious) weekend!

Bubble
Guest
Bubble

Fifty million empty apartments, this is really scary:
https://youtu.be/0SXA5F_pSU8

Bubble
Guest
Bubble

Wow, a $10 million condo on the list. Time to do an assignment.
https://bccondos.net/1480-howe-st

Laibach
Member
Laibach

That is good news, there is still room left in the city’s next famous locust-hive. That building even looks like some insect hatchery next to the swamp.

kabloona
Member
kabloona

“Get ready for a wave of household bankruptcies, Canada”

https://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2018/11/15/consumer-bankruptcies-canada-cairp_a_23590686/

“….In a report issued this week, the Canadian Association of Insolvency and Restructuring Professionals (CAIRP), which represents 90 per cent of Canada’s licensed insolvency trustees, said bankruptcies among Canadian households are set to spike starting in 2019.

The CAIRP report looked at previous times when consumer insolvencies rose and found that these periods begin about two years after interest rates start rising.

Given that the Bank of Canada started its current round of interest rate hikes in mid-2017, CAIRP expects the fallout to hit next year. And since rates have kept going up steadily since then, bankruptcies will continue to rise into 2020 and possibly beyond, said CAIRP chair Chantal Gingras.

“Rising interest rates coupled with a near record-high consumer debt-to-income ratio will force more Canadians into insolvency,” she told HuffPost Canada in an interview….”

xyz
Guest
xyz
Oracle
Guest
Oracle

Only those few who got in laatebtobthe housing market need to worry. Vast majority don’t.

Shut It Down Already (original)
Guest
Shut It Down Already (original)

Some people got in olenty early enough but then went nuts on HELOCs. They’re still fucked.

Shut It Down Already (original)
Guest
Shut It Down Already (original)

But who will they blame?

xyz
Guest
xyz

They kept rates too low for too long IMHO.

Canada is for Canadians
Guest
Canada is for Canadians

and they now are raising those same rates too quickly ….

xyz
Guest
xyz

“and they now are raising those same rates too quickly ….”

They likely know that they have to…household debt is enormous

MAKE TRUDEAU A DRAMA TEACHER AGAIN
Guest
MAKE TRUDEAU A DRAMA TEACHER AGAIN

I think after the dramtic drop in crude prices the rate hikes are once again on hold.

That is how pathetic our Govt is. They will do anything to keep rates at ultra low levels. Perhaps the window for further increases in this cycle has already closed.

Shut It Down Already (original)
Guest
Shut It Down Already (original)

It’s not the government which sets rates and the Bank of Canada has made it pretty clear what their monetary policy is in terms of inflation target. Are we far enough away from that target to justify a hike? No need to answer.

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

Looks like most of the new Vancouver City Council Flip flopped on duplexes.

They will not cancel the Vision Vancouver decision. Nothing to see here folks.

On with Supply! Lol

DaMann
Member
DaMann

They said they have had something like 4 applications since the zoning change. It’s not a big deal either way

Shut It Down Already (original)
Guest
Shut It Down Already (original)

Who wants to make such an investment in a falling market?

Best place on meth
Member
Best place on meth

Teranet Oct stats have prices down nationwide except for Montreal.

Vancouver down 0.8%, in line with REBGV stats.

Doomcouver
Member
Doomcouver

Beginning of the end my friends.

Doomcouver
Member
Doomcouver

Uh oh Canada’s got some competition on back-filling boomer demographic bubbles:
https://www.economist.com/asia/2018/11/17/how-japans-prime-minister-plans-to-cope-with-daunting-demography

Now how is Trudeau going to meet his 340k target? Guess we’ll just start importing the poor, sick, and elderly.

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

Trudeau allows 4 grandparents and parents for each immigrant. So no competition.

Will have to cut healthcare and pensions and/or raise the age for pensions. Will have no choice.

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

6*

Shut It Down Already (original)
Guest
Shut It Down Already (original)

Wait, I thought he allowed the entire extended family? That’s what you said a couple of days ago. So you need to add all the uncles, aunts, cousins, and so on. Right?

Laibach
Member
Laibach

What if a “soft landing” actually exists?

Canada’s Housing Market Shows Increasing Signs of Soft Landing

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-11-15/canada-s-housing-market-shows-increasing-signs-of-soft-landing

Jesus
Guest
Jesus

Detached west side down 30% already. That’s a crash by any definition. Spreading to east side as well. And when people leverage as much as they do to buy real estate, a 5% drop with a 10% downpayment means your equity has been wiped out by 50% if you bought in the past year. If stocks tanked 50% in a year, this would be all over the news. Unfortunately the masses are mostly math illiterate and have no idea that their financial situation is about to become dire if you bought in the last few years at the peak.

Doomcouver
Member
Doomcouver

What if Unicorns exist? Same line of reasoning. This reeks of speculator desperation. Bubbles crash, slight overvaluations have soft landings, that’s the way assets behave. We passed slight overvaluation about 15 years ago.

Best place on meth
Member
Best place on meth

No real estate bubble has ever had a soft landing, and there hasn’t been a bubble this big since Japan in the 80’s.

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

the current “everything” bubble is several orders of magnitude larger than one witnessed in the 80’s and by all accounts, Japan is still paying for that one.

Dave
Member

Ya, but your reasoning is tautological. If it doesn’t crash, it wasn’t a bubble.

Doomcouver
Member
Doomcouver

Yes, and think Japan in the 80s if there were a dozen other countries with the same overvaluations at the same time; that’s where we are now..

Shut It Down Already (original)
Guest
Shut It Down Already (original)

According to Zolo only 1 studio sold in Vancouver in the last month or so. A 94% drop year-on-year.

M-
Member

I’ve found Zolo’s stats (# of units sold) during the course of the month to be a bit unreliable– come the end of the month, there’s a wide gap between the REBGV’s figures for a given municipality, and Zolo’s.

YVR
Guest
YVR

That is because they are calling studios with a closet 1 bedrooms now.

Doomcouver
Member
Doomcouver

Studio with a closet? You mean 2 bedrooms then?

paulb
Member

New
156
Price Change
93
Sold
80
TI:13345

http://www.clivestevepaul.com

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

6.5% of ballots returned.

NDP (with their lacklustre effort) behind the scenes sees PR failing now. They are scrambling to pass many bills in the next 2 weeks before the PR deadline.

One of these has to do with ridesharing. The new bill will effectively shut out the companies and have a failsafe. If a future government ever brought in ridesharing, then they would have to buy back the taxi medallions for billions of dollars.

Helps when Geoff Megs is the NDP leader behind the scenes. Wonder what the kickback amount will be.

MAKE TRUDEAU A DRAMA TEACHER AGAIN
Guest
MAKE TRUDEAU A DRAMA TEACHER AGAIN

Billions?

Wow Oracle I never knew 500 taxi plates were worth so much?!?

Selective Memory
Guest
Selective Memory

6.5% at this point means outpacing the rate-of-return of the mail-in referendum on the HST, which wound up with a 55% response rate.

Bag it and tag it
Member
Bag it and tag it

Oracle post without a link = lie

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

So the truth has links on the internet? Interesting.

In any case, we shall know in less than 30 days the future course of politics in BC.

Best place on meth
Member
Best place on meth

Oracle post WITH a link = never happened

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

They had over a year to pass these bills. Now they see that an election may happen in the new year so they are scrambling writing legislation that can’t be rolled back.

Madashell
Guest
Madashell

Hong Kong’s housing market is entering a correction phase with prices forecasted to fall by 15% in 2019
http://www.jll.com.hk/hong-kong/en-gb/news/709/hk-housing-price-drop-in-2019#.W-2VH4zfQvY.twitter
So do you thing RE is still going up in Vancouver?

MAKE TRUDEAU A DRAMA TEACHER AGAIN!
Guest
MAKE TRUDEAU A DRAMA TEACHER AGAIN!
And the desperation from the YES side sets in. Why is it on the ballot if it is going to be Vetoed? Just another example of this farce! VICTORIA — Premier John Horgan says he’ll instruct his NDP MLAs to block an unappealing version of one of the proportional representation models, if it wins in this month’s referendum. Horgan told Postmedia News on Wednesday that if British Columbians vote to replace the province’s electoral system with mixed member proportional, he will order NDP MLAs to oppose the so-called closed list approach when a legislature committee decides the details of the new system. “The direction from me will be that the members of that committee not support a closed list,” said Horgan, describing a model in which voters don’t get to select candidates from party lists. “And I think that’s the… Read more »
Dave
Member

What a farce this whole process has been. First they RIG the whole process and then when they fear that isn’t going to get them to the finish line, they try to repackage it. This is our Democracy you idiots!

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

Apparently it’s done based on chit chat within riding associations. Now aim is to pass as much legislation as possible to get ready for he next election. Watch how fucked up the ridehailing bill is. Will the minions buy this BS?

patriotz
Member

How about reading the story? Horgan is saying that if the voters choose mixed member, his government will deliver open list not closed list. I thought you were opposed to parties choosing MLA’s rather than the voters.

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

Oh FFS. It’s easy to say this shit when you are on the Federal dole serving the Turd.

YVR
Guest
YVR

Then why wasn’t that part of detail on the ballot. What an embarrasement the NDP are. Such flunkies.

Stratahacker
Guest
Stratahacker

The worst part are the mentally diseased leftists like Patridiot and the rest who support them.

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

Amen. The minion left is led by the keen globalists. Being led to the slaughter….

Canada is for Canadians
Guest
Canada is for Canadians

Study: Chinese to account for half of luxury sales by 2025

https://business.financialpost.com/pmn/business-pmn/study-chinese-to-account-for-half-of-luxury-sales-by-2025

MILAN — Chinese consumers will remain the driving force for the luxury goods market, according to a new study by Bain consultancy released Thursday that shows they will fuel nearly half of global high-end sales by 2025.

Shut It Down Already (original)
Guest
Shut It Down Already (original)

And by then nobody will even remember to see if they were correct. Win-win!

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

Thailand opens its biggest luxury shopping playland – and looks to wealthy Chinese tourists to make it a hit
https://www.scmp.com/business/article/2172962/thailand-opens-its-biggest-luxury-shopping-playland-and-looks-wealthy

>>> and perfectly timed just as the “everything bubble” is leaking air and ready to burst…

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

US$288 million Shanghai hotel is the world’s deepest – just two of its 18 floors are aboveground
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/2173442/us288-million-shanghai-hotel-worlds-deepest-just-two-its-18

>>> with the world awash in boatloads of iilgotten, sketchy funds, this is the kind of nonsense that ultimately arises….

Shut It Down Already (original)
Guest
Shut It Down Already (original)

With world markets still close to their recent record highs and interest rates still close to their record lows do you really think such wealth is necessarily ill-gotten?

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

Short-term rentals beginning to cause concerns in Delta
https://www.vancourier.com/short-term-rentals-beginning-to-cause-concerns-in-delta-1.23496413

One of the Airnbnb listings in Tsawwassen shows an entire house with an ocean view on English Bluff Road by host Ricky. He describes himself in his profile as a student from Vancouver who was born in China and raised in Canada, and could be contacted in English and Mandarin. The house costs $628 per night

patriotz
Member

According to the Courier story, Delta has no restrictions on short term rentals.

Shut It Down Already (original)
Guest
Shut It Down Already (original)

That won’t stop them rushing down there with their pitchforks. How dare somebody who is legally present in the country make a living? Oh right, they’ll just pretend they know what taxes are or aren’t being paid. I forgot.

Laibach
Member
Laibach

“…student from Vancouver who was born in China” … as good as it gets.

“There’s not much rental housing here and the amount of people doing this is clearly increasing,”

Logically, what else would “students” do, finish university, get a real job, contribute to society, right?