Hey why not? It’s Saturday so let’s kick off our weekend open topic discussion thread!
Here are a few recent links to kick off the chat:
–Fraser Valley sales drop 50%
–Public input on Real Estate dirty money
–CMHC forecasts 11% drop in buying power
–Free mortgage deal in Langley
–Regulators take aim at HELOC growth
So what are you seeing out there? Post your news links, thoughts and anecdotes in the comments below and have an excellent weekend!
Why the Housing Market Is Slumping Despite a Booming Economy
When you look closely at the data, it appears this paradox of a strong economy and a weak housing market is, at its core, an illustration of a fundamental rule in economics: If something can’t go on forever, it won’t. Home prices in a given location are ultimately tethered to the incomes of the people who either live there or want to. But for much of the last six years, that relationship has come undone.
“The last six years” refers to the time since the bottom of the US housing market in 2012. But how long has it been since prices in Canada have been as low as that?
This is because the economy hasn’t started to be affected by reduced housing activity as a percentage of GDP. Eventually both the housing market and the economy will falter at the same time, we just have to wait for the systemic impacts to propagate.
good question. how long have you been predicting the market would correct? a very long time. if you had a kid when you first started making predictions i would say they would be past their bar mitzvah now.
“Falling Home Prices Mean Canadians Will Feel Poorer. That Could Be Bad For The Economy”
https://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2018/11/17/wealth-effect-canada-consumption_a_23591882/
“As Canadians’ home values grew and grew in recent years, many people became intoxicated with the idea that they were now paper millionaires.
Even as their children complained they would never be able to buy a house, many older Canadians with comfy suburban homes cheered on the housing boom — and went shopping….
…..And now, with Canada’s housing market moving into cooling mode, this debt-fuelled “wealth effect” could quickly come to an end, economists at NBF said in a client note this week.
“We’re not there yet, but the present trend has caught our attention,” Paquet and fellow economist Stefane Marion wrote. “If things don’t stabilize soon, an eroding wealth effect for consumers will become a headwind to growth in 2019.”
Was this article written by Captain Obvious?
Yeah, he was the co-author……
😉
“Falling Home Prices Mean Canadians Will Feel Poorer”
….and the average young family looking for affordable shelter in Canada said collectively:
Cry me a river…. :-/
Greedy boomers in Eby’s riding will have less money to spend on lawn signs whining about the horribly unfair 0.01% school tax.
Thats a bullshit envy tax.
For my landlord it means his taxes go up over 40% all becuase he owns a home ‘worth’ $5 mil (of which 4.85 is land value)
How is this tax fair ? Its typical NDP eat the rich crap.
No one with $5 mil in stocks has to pay it.
“No one with $5 mil in stocks has to pay it.”
That is exactly the point. It’s not a tax on wealth, it’s a tax on ridiculous RE valuations that encourage speculation in RE rather than investing in productive business. My own view is that property taxes should be higher and income taxes lower across the board.
Ditto on value-added (sales) taxes vs. income taxes….
It’s simply a money grab that attempts to exploit economic division and pitch the 99% against the 1%. If they were bothered about speculation then their “speculation tax” would have targeted, you know, speculation.
“It’s simply a money grab that attempts to exploit economic division and pitch the 99% against the 1%. ”
As if the government-engineered housing crisis hasn’t been creating economic division for the last decade and a half and enriching some existing homeowners and the RE industry at the expense of everyone else. It’s only when a new government tries to turn things around, just a tiny bit, that you hear complaints about a “money grab” or “class warfare”.
They’re not trying to turn it around, they’re trying to appear to be trying to turn it around. Big difference.
As I said, if they wanted to curb speculation they could have introduced a tax which targeted speculation.
I agree ppty taxes should be higher and income taxes lower but I think targeting an easy group ‘the rich’ is poor policy.
My heart bleeds for you and your plight.
My plight?
I’m a dirt bag renter. It doesn’t affect me in any way.
Like YVR, you whine and complain about things that don’t even affect you. People should focus on productive criticism, not just nit pick at policies that have no effect on them.
Its bad policy plain and simple. Attacking the ‘rich’ has never worked and it won’t now. As a voter and a tax payer I have a right to voice my opinion.
The positive thing is the NDP can’t keep their hands out of the cookie jar and stuff like this will eventually earn them another 15 years in Siberia.
The Lib Creds stole all the cookies including the jar.
The NDPs lack of keeping their election promise of making things more affordable effects pretty much everyone. Higher housing prices, higher rents, higher taxes, higher hydro rates, higher icbc rates covers everyone.
Renton from his Dad. Hahaha.
Troll ousted.
I knew it but this guys been playing you people.
PS. Beware of Doomcouver.
“My own view is that property taxes should be higher and income taxes lower across the board.”
The NDP forgot the part about the lower income taxes. They increased those as well.
“No one with $5 mil in stocks has to pay it.
[Checks primary residence capital gains exemption.]
[Checks the property tax rates on places in Point Grey vs. many other places.]
[Remembers the long history of tax and real estate policy machinations that lead to hyper-inflation of real estate values.]
Yes, we should all shed many tears for the poor souls of Point Grey and the way the system has truly worked AGAINST them.
I’m not saying we should shed any tears but lets call this ‘school tax’ what it is, a blantant tax grab by a socialist govt!
If you turn residential real estate into the biggest business in BC why should you not pay the business tax rate on all property except your principal residence?
How is the current tax system fair to all industries?
When the value of those $3M+ homes all fall below $3M the owners can be happy knowing that they no longer have to pay the unfair School Tax. At that point I hope they celebrate no longer being the target of this “envy tax”.
Don’t worry if that happens the NDP will have a new tax to replace it. That is why people are so pissed. They know this is just the beginning. Same old NDP. If the NDP were trying to lower housing prices with these taxes they would be lowering other taxes by an equal amount. Otherwise it is just a tax grab in guise of helping housing affordability. The tax is far too small and only impacts such a small amount of the housing stock it is not going to do anything other than hurt the few cash strapped local seniors that still live in Van West.
Only a fool would think that they are doing all they can for housing.
Prices could have been down by 25% by now from election levels.
To SIDA, who posted this:
“I know how you clowns love this sort of thing.
3401-499 Pacific, sold for $8.888m (asking price) on Nov 3rd after 100 dom. That’s $2400/sqft.”
That’s a very impressive sale for sure. I know you keep complaining about cherry picking and use this as a counter example, however, how many examples like this can you find, versus the dozens going the other way per month? In the past couple of weeks alone 3 detached houses in Richmond are listed at 25% below last sold price (not assessed value). it took me 2 minutes to find that. How many counter examples can you find in 2minutes?
I’m wasnt using it as a counter example, neither am I trying to suggest that the market isn’t softening. Of course it’s an outlier – it’s a penthouse unit occupying the entire floor of a luxury development.
I was just hilighting all the 8s in both the asking price and the sale price, because the clowns here love that sort of thing.
Good backpedaling there sida
You’re welcome to read my original post again, you toxic piece of shit racist.
What position exactly do you think I hold when it comes to real estate prices?
The vast majority of housing stock is still selling at higher prices than when the NDP took office. There is more to the market than tare downs in HAM areas.
Waaaaree EEEEbeeeee…?!!!
“Tip portal launched for reporting dirty money in horse racing, real estate, luxury cars”
https://news.gov.bc.ca/releases/2018AG0096-002215?fbclid=IwAR1yHdflHuFhWOJrV2hL33iCG-rSUCJIepyVVgJ6f90iRcSIjPajCn53kyY
I coulda done this in my first month. Not 20th….
And has anyone gone to jail yet? Lol
Gone to jail? Not even a charge laid since the NDP took office. Not one. Like they need tips to figure out what is going on. It would be like setting up a tip line for drug use on Hastings Street as a crack down on fentanyl.
How’s the NDP promise on ride sharing going?
Its a year late but watch them add so many rules and road blocks that its a useless program that simply protects the useless taxi mafia.
The rules are going to do in the NDP. Watch the anger build.
Your cousins will be happy. I think I met one, he refused to get out of his cab to get my bags on the way back from the airport. He just popped the trunk . (This after I tipped him $5 on a $20 fare)
Uber will utterly destroy these losers.
Most Indians hate the cabbies. It’s the kickbacks the politicians love.
That’s because the cabbies are all Indians too, but of a lower caste.
my globetrotting chinese neighbours just got back from china yesterday and appeared to get out of a rideshare Honda van (probably an illegal Richmond chinese rideshare from the airport) and the driver just dumped all their luggage on the street and they had to lug everything up the sidewalk and front stairs to their mansion. The driver immediately gets on his phone to see where the next ride is and how much he can make.
Such a blatant lie.
My over 100 Uber rides in a dozen cities tell a very different story.
I always tip the taxi driver and carry my own bags. I’ve paid for the ride, not a fucking porter. If you’re able-bodied then carry your own shit rather than trying to pretend that you’re something special.
Contrary to the bleating of a certain chronically lying douchebag on this board…
“Vancouver rental prices increasing by less than inflation”
PadMapper said that Burnaby was the third most-expensive market in the country for both one-bedroom and two-bedroom rents, at $1,580 and $2,250 respectively. Unlike Vancouver, Burnaby’s one-bedroom price was a 5.3 per cent increase over November 2017.
That is more affordable?
Dinh’s report also found that three-bedroom rents in Vancouver increased a whopping 6.7 per cent, to a median of $3,200
Thanks NDP!
The people cheering the NDP the most here will one day regret it.
Wait until 3 bdrm in Langley are $3200/month.
Yeah maybe in 2050.
1 bedroom rents only up 1.4%
2 bedroom rents down 1.3%
Rent increases were much higher before the NDP took over.
My sister in law is looking for an apartment in the West End and she says there are a TON of vacancies there now.
Can confirm this. We had a bunch of options under 1900/mo. That’s not cheap mind you, but like the overpriced homes on the market, anything over a certain threshold in the rental market just languishes.
a lot of sublet airbnb suites back on the long-term market.
To minions:
Just because we are blasting the NDP for their flip flops, it doesn’t mean we like the BC Libs or Greens.
What a concept! Lol
Oracle, you loved the Liberals. I bet you call Krusty Clarke every day and ask her to come back to politics.
Oracle, you should speak for yourself. (Well, perhaps you should post less. But whatever.)
Other hyper-posters here have repeatedly asserted that the BC Liberals would be doing a better job than the current government, and repeatedly said that the BC Liberals are actually the “legitimate” government. It’s a farce.
You need to stand your nonsense on its head: just because a lot of people supported the NDP in the last election, it doesn’t mean they love them. It means that 16 years of fetid BC Liberal governance left them with no choice but to support their opponents.
Mounties seeking suspect after Richmond officer dragged by dark coloured, late model Mercedes Benz
https://www.richmond-news.com/news/mounties-seeking-suspect-after-richmond-officer-dragged-by-vehicle-1.23502075
how is it possible they don’t have a plate number? Usually they have a dash cam and register the plate prior to approaching the vehicle so have as much info as possible prior to approach.
B.C. seeking tips on money laundering with luxury cars, real estate, horse racing
https://globalnews.ca/news/4675402/money-laundering-tip-portal/
FP: Canadians appear to have dodged that housing crash everybody’s been so afraid of for 10 years
https://business.financialpost.com/real-estate/canadas-housing-market-shows-increasing-signs-of-soft-landing
>>> LOL…
Yes homeowners, just plug your ears, close your eyes, and shout it’s a “soft landing” to anyone who will believe you. There has been no “landing” this is just MSM propaganda.
Hong Kong reports the worst sales weekend in years as private launches fail to keep up with government’s discounted housing
https://www.scmp.com/property/hong-kong-china/article/2173742/hong-kong-reports-worst-sales-weekend-years-private
So many dominoes tipping at the same time. Makes you wonder if China or Canada will crash first.
Chinese investors turn to property markets in Southeast Asia, as western markets impose capital curbs
Chinese investors make a strategy U-turn as markets such as Vancouver and London are no longer so welcoming
“Cashed up Chinese homebuyers are shifting their attention to emerging markets in the search for property bargains, reflecting a strategy U-turn as traditional western markets have initiated foreign investment curbs.
The change comes after the introduction of various measures in New Zealand, Australia, Canada, and the UK aimed at curbing foreign inflows of capital, as a way to cool runaway property prices, analysts said.”
Hooray! The swarm has been repelled, hopefully forever!!
Like I’ve always said, international speculators are fickle will drain nearly all their capital out of our economy if the global reputation of Vancouver real estate as a “safe investment” is damaged. It’s already starting and we could easily see a tsunami of foreign capital fleeing Vancouver in the next few years. Eventually Vancouverites will be so poor we’ll be begging for the Chinese to come back and inflate our asset prices again, but they’ll likely be gone for a long time. The demographic and credit bubble in China will guarantee there is no “second wave” of new millionaires to come and scoop up our crack shacks for millions of dollars.
How exactly do foreigners drain their money from the economy if there are no local buyers? Keep in mind sales are extremely low right now, even taking seasonality into account. If you’re saying that they’ll sell at a loss then how does that make locals poor? Locals will be net beneficiaries if foreigners are spending their money here then leaving with less than they started with.
Nothing you say makes sense, you’re just looking to blame those nasty foreigners for anything.
Locust will find a way. Laws and morals have no meaning to them. They will drain Vancouver into an empty wasteland if it suited their purpose.
Vancouver man implicated in Silk Road trafficking case
https://vancouversun.com/news/crime/vancouver-man-implicated-in-silk-road-trafficking-case
Canada Post has asked its international partners to halt mail and parcel shipments to Canada as it reels under the weight of a 30-day delivery backlog resulting from a labour dispute with its employees
https://business.financialpost.com/news/retail-marketing/canada-post-asks-for-halt-to-international-shipments-to-canada-royal-mail
Privatize it and close shop.
I don’t think privatization is necessarily the answer. Getting rid of the union would be a good idea though.
Can’t get rid of the union without privatization
Agree. Japan and the Netherlands have private posts and they aren’t Third World.
“B.C. housing experts say high-end house prices in B.C. seeing a drop, but no relief at lower levels”
Yet….? 🙂
Yeah, “yet” is the key commentary here. The high end led the way up and it’s now leading the way down. Seeing lower end prices lag price action at the top is the behavior you would expect in the beginning stages of a bubble collapse, this is still going according to my expectations.
Throw away the ProRep ballots people.
Hahaha. I told you so.
Ridesharing is DEAD. Another NDP fail. Fuck them!
Will require a commercial class 4 drivers licence to operate. ICBC website already updated. Basically only place in world to do this.
And I get bet anyone now that ProRep fails big time. I’m advising the whole extended family to throw out their ballots or vote FPTP. Fuck the NDP and Greens.
Calgary requires a Class 4 to drive for Uber.
Another lie.
OK… so any Uber driver will have to pass a test and get a medical certificate, and cant have a shitty driving record. Why would this be bad????
Nine out of the top twenty spots on Maclean’s 2018 list of Canada’s Most Dangerous Places located in BC
Langley, placing 6th overall, ranked most dangerous place in BC
https://www.macleans.ca/canadas-most-dangerous-places/
“Six charts that show what killed Australia’s property boom”, Sydney Morning Herald
“A potent combination of nervous buyers, cautious lenders and retreating investors has turned the nation’s housing boom to dust.”
“With the downturn now in its second year, the question for homeowners, house hunters and property investors is how much further there is to go. Prices in Sydney, which was the epicentre of the boom, are falling at an annualised pace of about 8 per cent.”
Most effects don’t have lots of causes. Usually things have one big cause and a smaller contributing factor. I think for real estate, rising rates and the retreat of foreign money explains 80% of what is happening.
Don’t forget the power of psychology.
“The global financial crisis has made it painfully clear that powerful psychological forces are imperiling the wealth of nations today. From blind faith in ever-rising housing prices to plummeting confidence in capital markets, “animal spirits” are driving financial events worldwide”
“Animal Spirits”, Robert Shiller *& George Akerlof
Most of the buyers here were local fools who believed they were on an easy path to riches. After all, all their friends were doing it and real estate always goes up! You can’t live in stocks!
It looks like the US economy is seeing signs of a slowdown. Rising rates are having a greater effect on growth than would have been thought. The real estate market is slowing down there, which will have knock on effects.
There is good and bad news for bears in our market. It looks like the central banks are going to slow down on the rate tightening cycle, which will help real estate of course. But, the reason for their caution will be a slower economy which is bearish.
China Is Paying for Most of Trump’s Trade War, Research Says
Trump isn’t the master negotiator for nothing. He knows exactly how to hurt his opponents the most and then just stand back and watch the victim in writhing pain and suffering before going for the jugular. How did you think he went from a nobody to President of US with no political experience and backing?
It’s a dangerous game, but Trump has been proven right to this point in time. This risk here is that this could also cause the whole economy to turn over and bring a global recession.
I’m not convinced Trump even wants a deal with China. It’s possible his end game is to end offshoring of manufacturing to China.
I’m sure American consumers would just love those prices as would international importers.
Manufacturing is a 20th century economy, a hurdle that any developed country has to overcome – not cling on to.
manufacturing will just move to some other low cost country. one that doesn’t steal intellectual property, spy, enable rouge nations like north korea, commit mass murder by shipping illegal drugs world wide.
and it will be a big improvement.
Re ORACLE , PR and Ridesharing…
I wasn’t going to even vote on PR…but decided to..but wonder how the mail strike will affect things.
Ridesharing?….I think Oracle us right….the taxi lobby is very powerful….for a number of reasons and the NDP fear them = no UBER.
More in next post.
I would think taxi lobby less powerful now with the limit on political contributions.
Do you honestly think that ALR mansions in Richmond are a significant proportion of the market? Focus on something that actually matters.
Just 1 mansion sold to locust is too much! We should seize these “mansions” from locusts as a proceeds from money laundering and turn them into hostels for those in needs. This could easily results in thousands of good housing units with minimum cost to taxpayers and almost immediate occupancy.
KTO….
You are falling for the NDP rhetoric…like their other backfiring ploys…..
Richmond has placed a moratorium on new applications…which means other jurisdictions will be flooded with applications……which then lets the NDP justify a province wide restriction.
Their stated goal is to crash land prices so new farmers can buy land? WTF? Just like the speculation tax is aimed at crashing other RE classes.
The sad if not so pathetic thing is when ALR was created in 1973….ALL property classes experienced massive inflation…even ALR land.
NDP does not want to admit the ALR has always been a failure….simply a communistic confiscation of private property …they put lipstick on this pig under “saving farmland”…” food security.”…blah blah blah….
Nothing worse than incompetent gov’ts desperate to hide and ignore past mistakes and using divide and conquer tactics where everybody loses…..classic NDP.
Apparently 800 yet to be built homes got grandfathered with plans for plate only.
SIDA…free advice…..don’t continue to hold the telescope face first into fat end.
Of course ALR mansions are NOT a significant proportion of the overall RE market. The NDP , as I stated, are desperate for
both deflection from their poor record and another divide and conquer strategy.
They are a corrupt bunch. Look at the ridesharing debacle.
Only way out is we need direct democracy. Where thencitizebs vote on issues online or every 6 months.
To oppose that the powers that be need media NDP schools for brainwashing the 50% of the electorate that is below average intelligence.
>BUT WHY DID THEY LEAVE OPEN A BIG WINDOW FOR ALR LAND AND LARGE MANSIONS until recently ????
the closed the loophole as soon as they were elected. the liberals are the ones that left open a big window for alr land and large mansions.
Locust scums can’t get a date, so they gang up and rape their fellow students while pretending to be devout Catholics. Absolutely sick and disgusting! Worse is they are not being considered to be expelled from the country – https://www.scmp.com/news/world/united-states-canada/article/2174045/six-boys-arrested-gang-sex-attack-torontos-st
No UBER.
Very expensive ICBC insurance; taxis get fleet insurance while ridehailing drivers get personal insurance. Bullshit!
Caps on number of cars. Bullshit!
To those that want this BS of a GreeNDP to continue, think again. Get these idiots out.
Hello Black Death / Plague 2.0 – thanks to locusts:
https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/health-environment/article/2173951/second-hong-kong-resident-infected-hepatitis-virus#comments