Your predictions for 2019

Ever felt like telling the future?

What do you foresee happening to the local economy an housing market in 2019? Where will interest rates go?

The Bank of Canada seems to think we’re not in for hot growth and are keeping rates flat for the moment.

A couple of brokerages predict prices will stay flat or decline only slightly in 2019.

The general consensus and safe bet is to predict a status quo situation.  No major drops or increases in the market.  That sound about right?

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Simple Solution
Member
Simple Solution

My prediction…

Oracle will continue making shit up

Slava
Member
Slava

That is a scientific fact by now;)

Royce McC
Guest
Royce McC

Water will continue being wet.

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

Hey, don’t shoot the messenger.

Just today, 10 nurses resigned in vancouver saying rents getting more expensive. NDP hasn’t done anything.

Only thing that will make a difference now is to significantly cut immmigration.

Simple Solution
Member
Simple Solution

100% cut to immigration would be a good start in my opinion….

Royce McC
Guest
Royce McC

@Oracle: Here in the Lower Mainland, do you know what day it is when ten health care workers leave the region or avoid coming here in the first place because of the cost of living? A day that ends with the letter “y”.

It’s not a new problem.

Burnabonian
Guest
Burnabonian

I predict that we look back on 2018 with fondness.

We remember it as an era of prosperity and innocence.

Slava
Member
Slava

Yes “prosperity and innocence” for the undeserving.

The time of real (non real estate and construction) entrepreneurs and highly educated professionals is at hand!

Slava
Member
Slava

A global uniform minimum wage standard would be true “Globalism” and put a swift end to these China and Wall Street shenanigans.

Yellow vests take the World!

Slava
Member
Slava

For 2018, S.I.D.A. will still accuse anyone who it doesn’t agree with to be a racist.
He will also continue to advocate for the biggest and largest racists on the Planet, China.

China will still not take any migrants in 2018.

In 2018, China’s economy will collapse or experience a severe downturn.

Simple Solution
Member
Simple Solution

China will not take any migrants… why would anyone want to go there?

China is a good place to LEAVE – just look around here…

Slava
Member
Slava

The key fact is that China will not take any migrants, regardless, as China are cultural supremacists and racist!;)

Slava
Member
Slava

typo. 2019

Simple Solution
Member
Simple Solution

https://www.vancourier.com/real-estate/high-end-house-rents-plunge-up-to-20-as-inventory-spikes-experts-1.23470074

“For tenants with a budget of $4,000 a month, previously on the North Shore they could get a pretty beaten-down house for that – now they can get a really nice house worth at least $3 million.”

Canada is for Canadians
Guest
Canada is for Canadians

offer them $3,000 a month or less and they would probably take it.

Best place on meth
Member
Best place on meth

That was written 2 months ago.

That 3 million house has already dropped 100K since then.

Hyper-mega-Bull
Member
Hyper-mega-Bull

soft landing

Simple Solution
Member
Simple Solution

Oh yes… soft landing… the first one EVER

Hyper-mega-Bull
Member
Hyper-mega-Bull

are you saying that after a period of increasing prices there is always a dramatic decline in a short time? because that’s obviously false.

patriotz
Member

A “soft landing” means no price declines at all, with the assumption that incomes will eventually catch up with prices.

Simple Solution
Member
Simple Solution

Incomes need to increase 5X or more to start catching up

Shut It Down Already (original)
Guest
Shut It Down Already (original)

If incomes did increase 5x what would be a fair price for a 1 bed condo in your opinion?

Laibach
Member
Laibach

Dumbass, he already told you whatever is current 1BR price incomes would need to go 5x up to catch up in order to have “soft landing”.

Shut It Down Already (original)
Guest
Shut It Down Already (original)

He actually suggested that 5x wouldn’t be enough.

Reading is hard, isn’t it?

YVR
Guest
YVR

“A “soft landing” means no price declines at all…”

The fact there is a landing at all means prices have come down. The term “soft landing” refers to the collateral damage caused by the decline of something. A hard landing typically means it causes a recession due to job losses, etc. With RE being such a big part of the economy in BC and Canada it is hard to imagine it declining significantly without a hard landing. That is why Horgan and Trudeau are trying to keep it inflated.

Shut It Down Already (original)
Guest
Shut It Down Already (original)
Simple Solution
Member
Simple Solution

no no no no no… I am just saying that after a period of massive credit expansion and speculative excess there have been exactly Z E R O soft landings. Ever.

But this time it could be different

xyz
Guest
xyz

Unmaking the myths
Real estate survival guide: The sudden shift in the nation’s housing markets is exploding some long-held beliefs. Here’s the conventional wisdom you should ignore.

https://money.cnn.com/2006/05/03/news/economy/realestateguide_2_fortune/index.htm

Hyper-mega-Bull
Member
Hyper-mega-Bull

have we had a period of speculative excess or have we had a period of price increases due to the fundamental factors of HAM, low interest rates, running out of space?

remember, the people who have said that we are in a speculative bubble have been wrong for almost 20 years. people who said HAM is driving the market, buy now or be priced out forever, your rent is going up have been right.

people’s predictions come from their mental model of the market. now which mental model do you think is more accurate?

Simple Solution
Member
Simple Solution

We have had a period of massive credit creation… I guess we shall see how that ends.

One thing for sure, anything the government does to prolong the pain will just make things worse.

Will be interesting to see how low a dollar Mr Poloz can stomach…

Also, interesting that mortgage rates going up despite the 5 year bond falling. Banks are aware of risk and price accordingly.

Hyper-mega-Bull
Member
Hyper-mega-Bull

also, assuming we are in some kind of bubble, what do you think the government will do when signs that it will hurt the economy begin to show?

the consensus with central bankers is starting to form and this is it: there is more risk in raising rates too fast than too slow. so we are going to ease off.

southseacompany
Member
southseacompany

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/softlanding.asp

“The concept was conceived by Alan Greenspan, former chairman of the Federal Reserve, who engineered the only true soft landing in U.S. history in 1994-95, when the Fed raised interest rates enough to slow the economy, but not enough to cause an economic contraction. Unfortunately, central banks’ efforts to engineer soft-landings have a track record of inadvertently causing subsequent bubbles and crashes. The subprime meltdown has been blamed on excessive rate cuts in 2001, which caused an asset bubble in housing. In fact, there has never been a soft landing following an economic or stock market bubble. This is because a bubble would not be considered a bubble if it were followed by a soft landing, and why talk of soft-landings is met with skepticism. Some economists say it amounts to little more than economic mumbo-jumbo.”

patriotz
Member

“soft landing”

How about telling us what you mean by “soft landing”, Rocket Man?

Laibach
Member
Laibach

Usual BS…

“B.C.’s average home sale price will edge up in 2019: forecast”

https://www.vancourier.com/real-estate/b-c-s-average-home-sale-price-will-edge-up-in-2019-forecast-1.23542429

Royce McC
Guest
Royce McC
Having under-estimated our society’s willingness to eat its young/ sacrifice its future, I had pretty much stopped making predictions on timing for this real estate market a while back. And I find it very hard to predict how far the market might change in a given year (we saw approximately +30% one year for god’s sake). But if I had to lay a bet on price changes for condos/TH/detached in the Lower Mainland over the next 12 months and my choices were: 1. go up by more than 5%, 2. fluctuate within +/-5%, or 3. go down by more than 5%, I’d probably pick option #3. Again though, nothing surprises me any more. I could totally see governments rolling back the moderating incentives they’ve put in place and the BoC cutting rates (barf). I could also see 10%+ YOY declines.… Read more »
Stratahacker
Guest
Stratahacker

In other words you are clueless. That fact is already known.

Royce McC
Guest
Royce McC

Cool.

I’ve said how I’ll bet for the year. You’re free to share yours if you’d like.

Feel better.

Thanks For Commenting
Guest
Thanks For Commenting

Quit making the internet such a miserable place to hang out

Laibach
Member
Laibach

Perhaps in 2019 that Huawei shit will get banned?

Five Eyes spy chiefs warned Trudeau twice about Huawei national-security risk

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/politics/article-five-eyes-spy-chiefs-warn-trudeau-about-chinas-huawei/

Laibach
Member
Laibach

“China has a tendency to go after the junior partner instead of attacking the big guy who is the source of the problem,”

Lol, what else to expect from the global rotters?

Slava
Member
Slava

Documented cowards, China that is.

Best place on meth
Member
Best place on meth

Prey on the weak.

It’s one of the dozens of traits that makes their diseased culture so toxic.

Laibach
Member
Laibach

“Huawei has denied that it acts for the Chinese state”

They certainly must be trusted, not only because of their culture and tendency to tell the truth but because of the notoriously clean records of their various Meng-Mengs.

crabman
Member
crabman

Predict that 2019 will continue to be a shitty time for the have-nots in Vancouver. So glad we left that shithole a few years ago.

Laibach
Member
Laibach

A decline would be much, much faster if there weren’t a locust parking money just for the sake to keep it somewhere out of China.

Home prices in Vancouver fell 1.9 percent in November from a month earlier, the most in a decade, extending a recent run of declines for Canada’s most expensive real estate market.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-12-17/vancouver-home-prices-fall-most-since-2008-extending-declines

Bubble
Guest
Bubble

Ban foreign ownership (e.g. Meng Wanzhou).
Why has this been discussed widely in the last 10 years, because 70% of population are home owners?

Shut It Down Already (original)
Guest
Shut It Down Already (original)

Because it’s a stupid idea?

Thanks For Commenting
Guest
Thanks For Commenting

What about measures to reduce the use of housing stock for investment purposes? What do you feel the most appropriate way to go about this would be?

kabloona
Member
kabloona

Believe it or not, the CTV National News is reporting tonight that the Chinese government is threatening to “stop buying Canadian real Estate”…..to retaliate against the arrest of Meng….

That’s a threat….?????? A-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA!!

😀

On the same newscast, Stephen Poloz predicts “No recession in 2019″….

😉

Simple Solution
Member
Simple Solution

Please please please make good on the threat

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

almost as good as REBGV’s Nov average price chart showing an increase of 5.2% MoM for detached prices

Shut It Down Already (original)
Guest
Shut It Down Already (original)

Zolo shows a 7% Nov increase for all property types. But I’m sure you have more reliable data.

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

ave “sale” price (as published by REBGV) for detached was $1715098 in Nov, up 5.2% from $1630323 in Oct. the folks here can decide for themselves how reliable this data is. i say this doesn’t even come close to painting a realistic picture of the true pulse of the market. some might even go so far as to suggest the massaging of the numbers in this way is highly misleading and perhaps even borderline fraudulent

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

when all is said and done (after market slide continues, china backlash escalates further, etc…) I predict the FBT will be rolled back by the Liberals who will be able to use the current china tensions as a convenient cover story to make nice and extend a warm and welcoming hand. if anyone hasn’t yet noticed, any further action that is deemed to be inflammatory in light of recent events will be politically suicidal

patriotz
Member

” I predict the FBT will be rolled back by the Liberals”

You are predicting the BC Liberals will be back in government next year?

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

not necessarily 2019, but the rollback is gonna happen imho. pretty clear to me the Libs will campaign on all the the NDP eff ups and broken promises that are being handed to them on a silver platter. the US-China/Huawei issue (and now slowing RE mkt) provides them with the perfect cover story to supposedly undo past wrongs without committing political suicide. when all is said and done Cdn real estate will emerge as the best available option for foreign money refiners

YVR
Guest
YVR
BC government says new 10-lane Massey Tunnel replacement bridge is ‘too big’ the government’s interpretation of Codwell’s report is that a $3.5-billion, 10-lane bridge is not needed and would provide too much additional capacity. The report indicates a smaller bridge with six to eight lanes or an immersed tunnel with up to eight lanes would meet traffic demands by 2045, however, the same level of congestion experienced in the existing tunnel will return at that time. http://dailyhive.com/vancouver/george-massey-tunnel-report-bc-government-2018 LOL, the NDP are planning a bridge or tunnel that will have the same level of congestion as now 20 years after it is finished. Why bother. Anyone remember when the NDP added one lane to Hwy 1 / Port Mann bridge the last time in office for billions only to have it all redone 10 years later and all that money flushed… Read more »
Simple Solution
Member
Simple Solution

Same old NDP… same old Liberals… same all government…

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

so we end up with fewer lanes for more money. maybe these genuises will opt for 7 lanes so that the folks currently monitoring the counterflow lanes can retain their jobs

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

BC on track to set another tourism record in 2018, but what is in store for next year?
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/b-c-poised-to-set-another-tourism-record-in-2018-1.4950088

>>> with the current and escalating perfect storm unfolding, 2019 numbers will most likely be much lower

Best place on meth
Member
Best place on meth

Imagine there’s no chinese,
It’s easy if you try

No one laundering money,
No one here to spy

Imagine all the people, getting their country back….

Who hoo….whoo hooo!

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

City councillors are expected to consider this week declaring a construction crane and excavation pit at a notable residential property located at 6289 Carnarvon St. on Vancouver’s West Side a danger and nuisance. The property is the subject of a 2016 claim in B.C. Supreme Court involving its owner, Jin Fang Li, who filed against her ex-husband, Sheng Yun Dong, and several other parties including the City of Vancouver itself
https://vancouversun.com/news/local-news/vancouver-council-asked-to-declare-carnarvon-street-property-a-nuisance-and-a-danger

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

Shocking surveillance video shows man repeatedly punching woman in Burnaby elevator
https://globalnews.ca/news/4771057/shocking-surveillance-video-shows-man-repeatedly-punching-woman-in-burnaby-elevator/

>>> hey mr touch guy…this makes the T&T seafood ruckus and the library kicking look like child’s play…

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

edit: mr “tough” guy (or touch…whatever floats your boat…hey space?)

Laibach
Member
Laibach

Right… spaceshit had a peculiar inclination toward particular understanding and adequate treatment of women.

kabloona
Member
kabloona

“PowerPoint that snared Meng Wanzhou claims Huawei had business ties with four Iranian companies”

Ooops….

https://www.thestar.com/vancouver/2018/12/17/powerpoint-that-snared-meng-wanzhou-claims-huawei-had-business-ties-with-four-iranian-companies.html

Laibach
Member
Laibach

“The PowerPoint presentation suggested Meng sat on the board to “help Skycom to better comply with relevant managerial requirements.”

No surprise with their traditional system of value and hierarchy. Meng ended up being a top level SSE, Senior Scumbag Expert.

Laibach
Member
Laibach

Xi calls for China to ‘stay the course’: No one is in a position to dictate reform to us

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/12/18/amid-trade-war-xi-jinping-says-china-must-stay-the-course-on-reform.html

Laibach
Member
Laibach

Future is bright…

China’s Detention Camps for Muslims Turn to Forced Labor

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/12/16/world/asia/xinjiang-china-forced-labor-camps-uighurs.amp.html

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29
Shut It Down Already
Member
Shut It Down Already

Chinese sure love fraud.

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29
bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

New report by Central 1 Credit Union says B.C. housing market in midst of recession that could last for 3 years
https://globalnews.ca/news/4771957/bc-housing-recession-report/

KickThemOut
Member
KickThemOut

Xi the petulant kid on the block, playing way way out of his league with his barely finished elementary school education
https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/xi-says-china-apos-transformation-034411712.html

atomic frog
Guest
atomic frog

I went to a small Chinese realty/financial firm Christmas party this past weekend. The turnout is less than half of last year; talking to the real estate agent who sits besides me paints a very bleak financial picture for them this year. I cannot predict the housing market for 2019, but for sure lots of local businesses (like luxury car dealership, restaurants) are already badly burnt.

The BCNDP new payroll tax does not help business in 2019. We will see either a reduction in local company’s overall workforce or they just simply will not hire anymore extra staff in 2019 making people looking for a better paying job that much more difficult

These are real people and real jobs we are talking about here.

SilentBob
Guest
SilentBob

“Real people with real jobs” when referring to realtors seems a little rich, and I cry myself to sleep at night thinking of the plight of luxury car dealerships and the types of cash-only restaurants the people you’re referring to frequent.

Laibach
Member
Laibach

” small Chinese realty/financial firm, luxury car dealership, restaurants – these are real people and real jobs ”

Enough said…

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

Richmond council voted early Tuesday morning to further limit the size of homes in the Agricultural Land Reserve to 400 square metres with Mayor Malcolm Brodie and councillors Alexa Loo and Linda McPhail voting against the motion
https://www.richmond-news.com/news/richmond-council-limits-alr-homes-to-400-square-metres-1.23543799