You know what time it is?
Friday free-for-all time!
It open topic time. What are you seeing out there? Post your news links, thoughts and anecdotes in the comments below and have an excellent weekend!
348 Comments
[…] yvr2zrh: Interesting […]
Doesn’t look good guys. China outflows accelerating like 2015 according to import export data between China and Hong Kong. Bond yields have crashed to mid 2017 levels. 5 year mortgages at 2.79%. Stress test less of a factor. Trudeau bringing in 30 year mortgages. Huge psychological factor. Plus he may stop requiring it on switching lenders or refinancing. Huge. The NDP said nothing further in throne speech regarding housing. We are at peak housing policy. Spec tax is a dud after the watering down. No rental tax credit. No FBT on Presales. FBT exemptions to anyone with a pulse including foreign students now. No closing Bare Trusts. Rents still rising. Prices on sub $800K up 20% since NDP took power. —————- How has the NDP made life more affordable? Like I’ve always said. Unless we curtail record immigration, nothing is… Read more »
sounds to me like you are wishing this is over… dont mistake the upcoming market reset for a temporary correction…
The only thing resetting is the rent on your basement dwelling.
I’m renting. Don’t know why you guys always assume I’m a bull just because I outline the contrarian view.
Did you read the article you posted?
Do you know what curve fitting is?
It is just that all your ‘contrarian views” are based on sheer and utter crap
MOAR debt… always the solution… and not a problem because the Chinese hoards will just come buy it all from us…
Local incomes never matter!
Absolutely false.
what happens when the ppl start following their money out.
City of Vancouver officially calls for public inquiry into money laundering
“Public pressure has been building for a public inquiry into the issue. On Monday, Richmond passed a similar motion and also called for increased funding for law enforcement to combat organized crime.”
The same City that takes payments in cash? The same City run by Robinson who would make trips to China to invite ‘investment’? The same City where foreign speculators would buy up residential lots, only to have them magically rezoned to high density shortly afterwards? I hope that inquiry takes a close look at all levels of government, especially the City of Vancouver.
They recently stopped the cash payment thing ….
At the front desk.
people want a public inquiry and they have no fucking idea what it is, what it can do, and what actions it will take.
this province is full of morons. that’s why we are in the mess we are in. and obviously these morons don’t know how to fix things.
It’s happening again. Same as late 2015.
Imports from Hong Kong soar into China eventhough overall exports and imports down from everywhere else. Capital flight.
Let me know when sales top 75.
ROR!!
Hong Kong exports to China are soaring. They don’t produce anything. Money is again leaving China.
The link and graph are pointing it out. Yet you get emotional. Good grief.
Rents continue to rise. ROR!!
They may be down in vancouver proper but have exploded in the suburbs. Basically you have priced yourself out of any area as before it was just Vancouver proper.
And the low end is up 60% from 3 years ago.
Yes, rents are down in Vancouver BUT there is no way that will spread to suburbs
Prices down in Vancouver but no way that will spread east.
Sounds to me like someone is max levered at the high and needs the debt orgy to continue to keep him afloat
Wrong about me.
And where is the link that says everything spreads out from Vancouver.
What I’m seeing is ranchers across the suburbs in a narrow range. Before it depended on area. Now Abby, Surrey, Ladner, N Delta etc all between $750-$1 million
“But the Liberals…but 16 years…but the Liberals…the corruption…the casino”
Yet, No been has been jailed let alone charge.
And the NDP is halfway through its mandate.
It relies on the sheep to keep pumping them up.
And have I mentioned icbc? Wait until the fall on rates and heaven forbid you have a teenager who drives and 2 cars in the family. Rate shock coming.
like I said, looks like you need the debt orgy and chinese dirty money to return… There are exactly Z E R O signs of that happening…
Cosmetics company allegedly connected to casino money laundering scheme, police say
https://bc.ctvnews.ca/cosmetics-company-allegedly-connected-to-casino-money-laundering-scheme-police-say-1.4296070
These are chinese, so the term “company” is used quite loosely.
Most chinese “companies” are fronts for other shady types of dealings. At the very least, tax evasion and on up to drugs and money laundering.
This one is notable: Istuary Innovation Group
how about Alibaba?
Rats, Public Defecation And Open Drug Use: Our Major Western Cities Are Becoming Uninhabitable Hellholes
Once the Democrats get into power they ruin the city. Like Vision did to Vancouver.
Is there any topic you guys aren’t wrong about?
http://thefederalist.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/191219.png
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Really stalled. Ugh!
Here’s one for Oracle:
https://app.tmxmoney.com/news/cpnews/article?locale=EN&newsid=VD131616
VICTORIA – British Columbia’s Opposition Liberals say a New Democrat member of the legislature must resign from a committee reviewing ride hailing because his father holds a taxi licence.
By golly gosh…this must be investigated ….by golly gosh again.
Why can’t the government mandate tap credit cards for all taxis? At least it would take the tax evasion away.
I guess even more concentration camps are going to be setup in China now that cheap labour are no longer needed. Expect waves of refugees as non-CCP peasants flee China into countries.
How DO you tell the difference between humourless worker ants and robots ???
PS: Unemployed Chinese could always be used to rebuild Great Wall…(ie become part of it)
They’ll become cannon fodder in a failed attempt to invade Taiwan.
You’d think they would have learned after 8888 attempts….
How stupid can locusts get, though one can certainly understand why since 99% of them are flat as a plank.
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/2185995/coconut-milk-gives-you-bigger-breasts-chinese-drink-advert#comments
More like 99.9%….
….how do Chinese mothers feed their newborns ?
They feed them melamine-laced baby formula obviously…….
Cherry picked this
“Australian RE mogul Tim Burner got an international drubbing in 2017 for suggesting that millenials should spend less on avacado toast and save their dollars for a house deposit”
Pg 177, Chapter 6 …. Why Social Media is Ruining your Life,
by Katherine Ormerod
More confirmation that Chinese food are just disgusting and vomit inducing. No wonder they are all small and weak with no meat on their bones, or bust & hips.
https://dailyhive.com/vancouver/must-try-hot-pot-metro-vancouver-2019
Too bad this blog is unmoderated. Quality of comments gets worse every week.
I hear you, man.
It’s tiring reading all the shit about Russian collusion and educating know-it-all morons about the difference between deficits and debt.
This place is like the short bus of blogs some days.
Number of ads increased, though. That could indicate less traffic.
Ethnocentric much?
Trump is like boa constrictor wrapped around China. He’s very slowly but consistently tightening his grip. Right now China is feeling some pressure. They think they can break free and are pushing back with all their strength. All the while the grip gets tighter and tighter.
But the grip is getting tighter, their breath is getting shorter. If China doesn’t give in bones will snap. Organs will pop. Trump won’t kill them though. He’ll just leave them bloody, crippled, and incapable of standing up.
So many people said what he has done couldn’t be done. Nobody believed you could risk pushing back on China. It looks like we’ll get a deal and it looks like Trump will have negotiated something better for the US. He also knew enough to negotiate a right of refusal for Canadian deals with China because he knows we’re spineless. If our media wasn’t bought and paid for, most Canadians would know this. But whatever deal Trump comes up with will be of benefit to the average Canadian too. The Federal Liberals have only taken away from me and Trump has only given me stuff back. I hope Trudeau is sent packing this Fall, but I suspect not.
Bullshit. He hasn’t “negotiated” anything. He just rage tweets policy — with the occasional positive side effect. If China enriched his family the way Russia did, there wouldn’t be any Chinese tariffs. Also, he has no plan for how this ends.
Watch! Won’t be long until he gets a deal. That’s more than any other Western leader has done with China.
And keep watching for the Mueller report which is going to say no Collusion. I bet you watched dozens of hours of media porn talking about it. Are they going to apologize? No. The real victim here is you because you bought into a bunch of BS and still do. At least CNN got paid for the con.
You do understand that plenty of North American companies and farmers are getting hurt by this trade war, right? But when someone who took 5 businesses into bankruptcy (including casinos!) is in charge…
Great negotiations wrt the wall, btw.
– Mexico is paying!
– Rejected $25B.
– Demanded $5.7B
– Shut down the government.
– Settling for $1.4B
Also love the “repeal and replace” that went nowhere. The only thing this conman has achieved so far is a huge budget-busting tax cut for the rich/corporations.
P.S. Can you please stay on topic and quit with the media bashing? It’s getting old.
Trump will get a trade deal because that will help him get re-elected.
That’s the point.
Trump will get a trade deal because he will accept any deal – even a terrible one – over appearing to walk away empty-handed.
If I recall Trump would be able to get anything from China. Then tariffs wouldn’t work. Now he won’t be able to get enough. What ever he gets it is more than Obama got by doing nothing.
Feel free to quote me if you doubt your recollection. Which I do, incidentally.
Why would I quote you? You are an idiot.
Weak. As usual.
The only thing more fun than watching Trump crush China is watching people with TDS going bat shit crazy every time Trump has another win. Can’t wait unit he wins again in 2020.
I’m in no hurry to see him win again in 2020, I want to savour every minute of his presidency and the joy of watching brain-dead Trump haters shit themselves daily.
It is going to be a fun campaign though, look at the human garbage piling up on the Dems side thinking they can be the next president.
Ugghhh..
You are right on…should start looking at the dregs now vying for nominations…
….f*ck…probably end up with some transgender pedophile mullato midget .
…beam me up Scotty…..yesterday !!!
That would be a transgender pedophile mullato midget in blackface who identifies as native American.
Coming from the utter fool who thinks the military didn’t receive a pay increase in 10 years, blames Obama for the reduction in manufacturing jobs rather than the GFC, and thinks that the president is somehow popular.
Yes, you’re totally credible.
Just how is that prosecution of Obama and Hillary coming along, btw?
LOL
Trump’s approval rating among likely voters soars to his best in 23 MONTHS at 52 per cent after State of the Union address as border-wall shutdown talks intensify
“Just how is that prosecution of Obama and Hillary coming along, btw?”
Senate may confirm Trump attorney general pick as soon as Wednesday
“blames Obama for the reduction in manufacturing jobs”
The Trump Manufacturing Jobs Boom: 10 Times Obama’s Over 21 Months
Comparing the last 21 months of the Obama administration with the first 21 months of Trump’s, shows that under Trump’s watch, more than 10 times the number of manufacturing jobs were added.
LOL
the military would receive their highest pay raise in nearly 10 years thanks to legislation signed in August. Military compensation records and experts in defense analysis and government spending fields verified that this was correct. We rate this statement True.
https://www.politifact.com/missouri/statements/2018/dec/13/roy-blunt/roy-blunt-right-military-pay-increase-largest-year/
TDS about to kick in.
That’s not what your previous claim was. Again, well done for giving up your previous position.
Take your medication and go to bed. You have been schooled…again.
Remember how you argued that Trump had never mentioned percentages? Even Royce was close to calling you a fucking idiot.
But run away once again, that’s your standard response after all. Make sure you declare victory first, though. That’s important.
Thanks. But we’ve discussed the data here before quite recently. And right now I’m laughing at:
A) you
and
B) the ridiculous choice of y-axis on the graph in that article
But at least now you’re backing away from the absurd claims you’ve made in the past about this about how manufacturing jobs declined due to Obama. That’s a great start, and you should give yourself a little present to celebrate.
So no charges have been filed yet then? Gotcha.
The AG needs to be confirmed first, then investigations, then charges.
You chinese don’t seem to understand how rule of law operates.
Do let us know when things have progressed as far as criminal charges. I’d hate to miss it.
I’ll let the humans here know for sure.
Republican Congress investigated for six years. Zero indictments. You RWNJs don’t seem to understand much of anything.
His best in 2 years is still dreadful.
Are you really so dumb as to not understand the difference between relative and absolute? Perhaps.
It’s his best ratings yet from a cherry-picked poll but he’s still not popular by more than the margin of error. Just think about that – if you can.
How are you going to feel when he beats the Dems latest piece of shit?
Looks like they’re not going to improve on Hillary in 2020.
Are you trying to change the subject because you noticed YVR needs rescuing? That’s so adorable.
Nope!
he should have allowed money laundering in his casinos…. I hear that is good for business…
Breaking: Trump campaign manager lied to investigators about his Russian contacts after plea deal. Now he’s getting many more years of jail time. CNN! Fake News! No collusion!!!
https://mobile.twitter.com/washingtonpost/status/1095833474253099009
@ StupidityCheck
“Trump campaign manager lied to investigators about his Russian contacts after plea deal.”
If this has some connection with Trump then perhaps you can let us all in on what you supposedly know that the rest of us don’t?
How many members of Trump’s inner circle have to be convicted of lying about Russian contacts for you to see the obvious?
@ StupidityCheck
Just as I thought…nothing of substance….I really shouldn’t be surprised.
I once spoke to a Russian.
Later, I forgot that I had.
COLLUSION!!
Of course, you forgot when asked. And then again when asked by somebody in authority. And then again when you were told when and where it was. And then again when your friend said they’d spoken with that Russian. Because you’re forgetful like that.
Another one surely wouldn’t hurt.
When he gets a deal – and he will, because he’s a showman and not a politician – you won’t understand the details and will simply accept it at face value that it’s “tremendous”. You’ll simultaneously declare any analysis of the deal which is inconsistent with it being tremendous as “fake news”. Sad!
If anybody thinks they understand trade deals, they’re deluded. It’s a very complex subject with a lot of moving parts. I’m educated in macro-economics so I know what I don’t know. Do you?
Regardless of that, the reality is that Trump is the only guy to have pushed back on China and he’s for sure going to improve the trading situation. While I might not understand the intricacies of a trade deal, I do understand negotiation. The US will walk away with a better deal than what they started with, the same way they did with NAFTA.
Then people deserve to live in a third world country that it will become. I’m already planning an exit to the USA.
Which is why China is screaming about military actions every chance she get because CCP knows they have no other choice. Once US stop their criminal activities and their Potemkin cities fall apart, what’s left is the ugly trust of 1.4 billion starving peasants with no food, no jobs, no shelters, and so desperate and mentally deranged with hunger that they will kill the 80 million CCP fat cats for their flesh. Heck, millions will even run across borders to neighboring countries as refugees assuming they can even walk that far. North Korea will seem like a paradise to them. Trump is going to crush China so hard that they will never ever be stand up again, it will be seared into their psych their proper place in the world order.
China’s economy is screwed. It’s the massive leverage that’s going to bite them in the ass. Unlike the USA they haven’t seen a debt-fueled asset collapse on this scale in China before. 1929, and to a lesser extent 2008, should have been a lesson for all countries on the danger of an asset mania fueled by leverage, but sadly they learned very little. Now Trump’s trade war is shaking the house of cards and China will either have to hyperinflate their dollar, or ride out a massive deflation across nearly all Chinese asset classes.
China has introduced jail terms for operators of “underground banks” illegally helping tens of thousands of its citizens transfer money out of the country to buy property overseas
https://www.afr.com/news/world/asia/further-hit-to-australian-property-as-china-intensifies-capital-controls-20190213-h1b7ez
Foreign and domestic policies are creating the perfect storm for an asset collapse. Anticipating a massive crash in the value of Canadian real estate was a contrarian viewpoint for well over a decade now, but it’s at the point where you’d have to be blind not to see what’s coming.
More good news for those waiting for the Chinese hordes to come rescue the housing market:
China has introduced jail terms for operators of “underground banks” illegally helping tens of thousands of its citizens transfer money out of the country to buy property overseas…
Hopefully our media picks this story up. The psychological impact would be awesome.
It doesn’t matter, locust knows it already and local holder of hard-earned equity will figure it out sooner or later.
We are still in the denial stage. People still convinced that it will turn around in the spring… or as soon as the NDP gets out of power… or as soon as the stress test is gone… or as soon as there are 30 year amms….
Spring 2019 feels like a very important moment in time for our market. It’s where we should be able to see the full directionality of house prices, and it may also telegraph the amplitude of the crash. A bounce in prices will be confusing from a predictability standpoint as it could be a “dead cat bounce” or could somehow be more speculators stepping in to backstop prices. With the draconian capital controls from China and increased scrutiny of borrowers in Canada however the credit flows are getting choked out, and I see nothing but abject terror for speculators in the near future.
Take Chinese money out of the equation and prices correct 50%. Even a good effort and we can get a 30% correction.
Now time to take Turd out and reduce the hordes coming here.
Already 25% down on the west side… more to come. East side starting and it will filter out to valley from there. The condo shit show should start any time now.
I love how everyone calls this a “correction” like its going to “correct” and bounce back.
This is a market re set. This is coming back to reality…
“Take Chinese money out of the equation and prices correct 50%.”
That is correct, at least 50% due to Chinese injection and another 20-25% due to local debt lunacy and you get about 70 – 80% required correction for entire LM market to get somewhat close to local fundamentals while still remains to be the most expensive in Canada and not affordable to many.
the problem is that real estate bubble and the various related industries too big to fail. if we were to see average (not uber luxury) det house, t/h, apt, condo prices fall by anywhere near this the Cdn economy would be obliterated and everyone would be left holding the bag. imho the powers that be are already getting twitchy with modest 10-20% declines and i am betting something obscene (bordering on unethical) will occur sooner than most expect. it looks to me like Trudeau only has one card left to play in what would effectively be a hail mary attempt to save his career. tick tock, tick tock…
“everyone would be left holding the bag”
A bag is supposed to be held, the problem is how heavy will it be? Also, not everyone will be left holding the heavy bag but those “competitive” who put more in it than they could hold. Perhaps it ‘s time for some to hit the gym and change diet.
there will be plenty of people not holding the bag… the pigs and “geniuses” will have problems.
everyone will be pay directly or indirectly. it is only a question of how much
People will mostly pay with cuts to social services and dollar inflation; increasing taxes after a major credit event we’re going to experience won’t be possible without amplifying the crash.
Only the morons will be left to hold the bags, not the smart ones on this blog.
One thought I heard from a few economists is the government should just pay out people to support their underwater mortgages, but give the payout to everyone. That way renters get a wad of cash, and moronic housing speculators don’t get kicked out of their overpriced houses. Seems like a win-win to me. Though any actual help would likely be another fat handout to homeowners and a giant middle finger to renters… like most of the policies in this backwards country.
Don’t forget to factor in the stagnation in wages, and increased reliance on real estate for the jobs that do exist. Local incomes can’t even support 1990s prices in inflation adjusted terms. Vancouver proper will still hold some value, because it’s one of the least crappy cities in Canada in terms of weather. But there will be homes in the suburbs in the GVR that won’t sell for any price. The crummiest condos and townhouses in some communities could literally go to near $0. That’s the armageddon we’re setting up for.
“These Are America’s Most Unaffordable Cities For Housing”
“Nearly 75% of American households believe the nation is experiencing a housing affordability crisis, according to a recent survey published on behalf of the National Association of Home Builders.”
Interestingly, little Bellingham WA is #8 on the list, presumably owing to its proximity to Vancouver and Seattle.
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-02-12/these-are-americas-most-unaffordable-cities-housing
moderately priced real estate there (comparatively speaking) is a result of a booming economy headed up by amazon, microsoft, boeing, costco, starbucks and several other major companies. visit any upscale mall in seattle and the stores are swarming with their employees. in the playground that is vancouver, there are no major headquarters and real estate is merely a component of the money laundering flowchart and shadow economy. visit any upscale mall here and the stores are swarming with sketchy law breaking fuerdai and russian oligarch offspring who seem to have both all the time and money in the world but no plausible cover story to justify their presence here.
1% ++ property tax really helps to “moderate” realestate prices too
Bellingham is not Seattle. It’s a 90 minute drive away on a good day.
Bellingham is between Vancouver and Seattle and gets people from both who cant afford to live in those cities. Kind of like why a house in Hope cost $500K.
A house in Hope costs as much at it does because the idiot who bought it thinks it will appreciate by 20% per year after their realtor persuaded them that they’re somehow a reasonable commute from Vancouver.
People don’t buy houses in Hope if they will be commuting to Vancouver.
They buy houses in Hope because they cashed out of Vancouver thanks to chinese money.
They retired on their windfall.
Yes, everybody dreams of an early retirement in Hope I’m sure.
It’s more likely that they got a HELOC on their residence and used it to buy an “investment” in an “up and coming area”. Because real estate always goes up!
I would happily sell a house in Vancouver, buy a house in Hope for 30% of the proceeds, invest the rest and enjoy an early retirement.
Getting out of this locust/sjw filled city would be a dream come true.
Vancouver is a cesspool.
Wow, money laundering criminals were tipped off by BC government officials:
https://globalnews.ca/news/4949413/as-rcmp-investigated-casino-money-laundering-police-distrust-of-b-c-government-grew/
Amazon’s threat to back out shocks NYC real estate
https://vancouversun.com/news/world/you-gotta-be-kidding-me-amazons-threat-to-back-out-shocks-nyc-real-estate/wcm/714ec317-f333-400f-a655-1d35a36a6d86
Just another example of the lunacy of the US left wing politicians. They are about to chase away 25000 six figure jobs.
The billions in tax breaks to that awful company aren’t worth the jobs.
They’re just trying to negotiate for more. The HQ2 process was a scam, just like Foxconn scammed Wisconsin.
“International anti-money laundering officials estimate the Richmond underground bank laundered over $1 billion per year for international narcos.”
let that number sink in for a minute. So much for the piddly laundering numbers thrown about by the BC Liberal apologists.
remember, this is only one co and the portion of the funds that could be accounted for.
That was David Eby who through out the $100 million figure after his 1 year consultant study. He still has not officially updated it. Yet Sam Cooper can spend a weekend writing a column and come up with billions.
Interesting statistic. Not only are we almost certain to have the worst sales numbers for February in recent history, but – for the first time ever, it appears that we may increase MOI from Jan-Feb (that never happens). Now the weather will have some impact for sure but this February is not going well and many people are waiting things out as prices settle down.
Yes, I am sure the 2 days of snow will be blamed…
I doubt the snow sales days have shown up yet. There is a week or two lag.
Yes, but the sub zero weather is having an effect on listings which are current.
“Value of Sydney and Melbourne properties tipped to fall dramatically”, news.com.au
“Banking giant UBS has warned that Australia’s falling house prices could be about to plummet even lower still.
“The alarming claim was made following the release of the latest Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) home loan figures, which revealed the number of new mortgages taken out across the country plunged by nearly 20 per cent last year — the lowest point since the global financial crisis. That is a big clue that houses are about to get even cheaper, the bank’s economics team said.”
‘Brace for up to 20 per cent decline in Hong Kong home prices, CK Asset senior director says”, South China Morning Post
‘CK Asset executive director Justin Chiu Kwok-hung said on Tuesday that home prices could drop 10 per cent this year and by up to 8 to 10 per cent next year, amid simmering trade tensions between China and the US that show little sign of being resolved in the near future.”
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Stalled inventory.
Sales falling in mid February…..weird.
Canadians and how their lefty governments make them feel more Canadian. until they realize it costs them money. the ndp promising everything from cell phone bill clarity to a Chinese museum.
The B.C. government has reported that it is expecting Property Transfer Tax (PTT) in the 2018/19 fiscal year to bring in $400 million less in revenue than projected in its original budget
https://www.richmond-news.com/province-expecting-400m-hole-in-property-transfer-tax-revenues-1.23631463
‘Non-individuals’ own 10% of B.C. residential property: CMHC
https://biv.com/article/2019/02/non-individuals-own-10-bc-residential-property-cmhc
And what percentage in Metro Vancouver?
20%?
Surprisingly much lower 5.6%
Most of it is vacant land outside of GVRD at 15%. That could be mostly logging companies skewing the numbers, but just guessing. They’re including Government owned as well, but I think that’s buildings, but not crown land.
“The report, Residential Property in British Columbia, Ontario and Nova Scotia: Overview of Non-Individual Ownership, concluded most non-individual owners are governmental organizations, corporations in the construction sector, and corporations in the real estate and rental and leasing sector.”
Keep in mind that almost all rental apartment buildings are owned by corporations.
Fake news! It’s all foreigners using numbered companies to cover their tracks, amiright?!
I know I shouldn’t feed the trolls, but I think most people who frequent this forum recognize that in BC the predominant strategy is to put the property in the name of a student or housewife with no taxable income. Numbered companies are for the bigger players.
There’s no advantage to putting somebody with no income on title. There are of course huge potential downsides.
Two Large Chinese Borrowers Miss Bond Payments, Sources Say
The China bubble has almost certainly popped at this point.