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Party on
Guest
Party on

The borrowing and spending binge by Canadian households, businesses and governments (all levels) continues unabated. Growing the debt in the economy significantly faster than the economy itself grows seems to have developed into a way of life in Canada.

At the end of December, 2018 the total debt outstanding in Canada (bottom line of the Statistics Canada credit market summary data table) was $8.089 trillion. At the end of December, 2017 the total debt outstanding was $7.645 trillion. In the 1 year period from the end of December, 2017 to the end of December, 2018 it increased by $443 billion. This is an increase of 5.8%.

https://owecanada.blogspot.com/2019/03/canadian-total-household-business-and_14.html

southseacompany
Member
southseacompany

“Budget’s housing affordability changes to focus on supply, demand, regulation”, Vancouver Sun

https://vancouversun.com/pmn/news-pmn/canada-news-pmn/budget-to-focus-on-affordable-housing-changes-on-supply-demand-regulation/wcm/5e9abf48-6527-4295-a95d-fed6b940f4a5

“There have also been industry calls for the reintroduction of insurance on 30-year amortization mortgages as a targeted way to help people at the lower end. But Paul Kershaw, an associate professor at the University of British Columbia, said many experts, himself included, have discouraged the government from weakening the stress tests or extending amortization out of fear such moves would only encourage people to borrow more.”

“Kershaw is the founder of Generation Squeeze, a group dedicated to informing policy decisions about the socioeconomic challenges of younger Canadians.”

southseacompany
Member
southseacompany

“Housing Affordability Poll Finds Canadians Have Little Faith Government Can Solve The Problem”, Huffington Post

https://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2019/03/17/housing-affordability-poll-canada_a_23694281/

“Only one in 10 respondents want to see 30-year mortgages”

patriotz
Member

“But only 21 per cent said they feel confident the government can improve affordability over the next five years. And 55 per cent agreed that government policies alone can’t fix the problem.”

Actually government policies alone are quite capable of fixing the problem. But this is what the RE industry, and most governments themselves, want people to think. Not without some justification for the latter – bringing down RE prices quickly would certainly bring on a recession.

Oracle
Guest
Oracle
I think the correction for the valley is more or less over. Because Surrey and North Delta detached homes have barely budged in price, the rest of the valley detached are staying put even with low sales. The biggest factor in the valley was that the low end spiked. Condos and townhomes spiked in price because lack of supply and FOMO. What used to be a 450K townhome is now $650K. For the thousands that own a townhome, a move to detached is “only” $300K away as opposed to $500K before the low end took off. And who to blame for the low end in the valley? NDP allowed this. They needed to take out the floor in the low end in the valley and the domino effect would have started. What we have now is the high end going… Read more »
Dave
Member

Possibly true. I expected the market would flatten out this way. How were the open houses this weekend? Crazy I bet. I’d check it out, but I’m out of town.

Canada is for Canadians
Guest
Canada is for Canadians

Oracle is talking to himself and answering his own posts again….

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

Felt a little demorialized last 2 weekends I expected huge crowds today because of the weather so didn’t go.

Need to narrow my search and pick and choose the open houses i go to from now on. Part of me is scared that we may see FOMO 2.0 in the next few months.

Houses priced right are going multiple bids and above asking right now at least in Surrey Tough to buy in a situation like that.

Canada is for Canadians
Guest
Canada is for Canadians

Well all those houses on 87A avenue in North Delta are still for sale … including that $777k one with the non-existent open house.

Shut It Down Already (original)
Guest
Shut It Down Already (original)

Except the one that sold and I gave you the sale price for.

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

Ignore him. He’s just a troll.

Canada is for Canadians
Guest
Canada is for Canadians

You just had to re-post this on the hew thread huh ? Copy/paste from the last thread. I’d sure like to know who you are and what your agenda is.

Specuskeptic
Member

Oracle (and sock puppets) = Douchebag
Agenda = douchebaggery
Pretty straightforward.

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

Do you have anything constructive to say. You always just seem to respond to my posts.

Shut It Down Already (original)
Guest
Shut It Down Already (original)

You are quite the douchebag, he’s got you there.

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

The delivery needs work but I have been bang on with my predictions and forecasts.

That’s more important imo.

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

Agenda is to educate the Bears that the housing policy changes of the last 2 years is not enough.

xyz
Guest
xyz
Doomcouver
Member
Doomcouver

The housing deflation death-spiral is off to a strong start.

Ultra Bear
Guest
Ultra Bear

Lots of immigrants are just gonna bail and leave the country.

Canada is for Canadians
Guest
Canada is for Canadians

30% of all immigrants leave Canada with 10 years of arrival. These are mostly the more educated ones.

Simple Solution
Member
Simple Solution

according to Oracle immigrants only come to canada and bring family and NEVER leave.

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

Lies.

Why are you picking which ‘stats’ to believe in? Why not then believe Realtor stats?

BTW, Canada did not have exit monitoring until very recently. There is no way Canada knew who left.

Canada is for Canadians
Guest
Canada is for Canadians

The longer the time frame, the greater the exodus. The more educated/skilled the immigrants are, the quicker they leave. Stats Can numbers after 20 years for all immigrants is 30% gone. McMaster University did a study and found that among well educated and skilled immigrants, up to 40% are gone within 10 years.

Simple Solution
Member
Simple Solution

True… only since 2017 I think

Shut It Down Already (original)
Guest
Shut It Down Already (original)

Realtor stats are unreliable and manipulated by scumbags. Zolo is probably the most reliable thing we have, but even that is tainted due to aforementioned scumbags faking DOM – and let’s not forget all those cash deals skewing sales prices, eh?

Simple Solution
Member
Simple Solution

zealty.ca shows the listing history of properties…. so the DOM bullshit doesn’t really work

Shut It Down Already (original)
Guest
Shut It Down Already (original)

The DOM stats for the market as a whole is skewed. Yes, you can find more accurate information for any given property but you’re at the mercy of the scumbags when it comes to market-wide data.

Simple Solution
Member
Simple Solution

Market wide date is basically useless as reported.

Shut It Down Already (original)
Guest
Shut It Down Already (original)

You can easily tell when people don’t renew their work permits or visas.

Perhaps there’s a new angle for you here – you can pretend they all overstayed and never left, and now they’re all hungry for more real estate?

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

Former adviser to Bank of Canada says Canadian dollar could sink to record low of 62 cents as economy slides closer to recession
https://business.financialpost.com/news/economy/fidelity-sees-loonie-testing-62-cent-low-amid-slowing-economy

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

Driver dead after Tesla crashes into pole on Lougheed Highway
https://bc.ctvnews.ca/driver-dead-after-tesla-crashes-into-pole-on-lougheed-highway-1.4340542

southseacompany
Member
southseacompany

“Federal Budget will aim to make home-buying more affordable through supply, demand and regulation”, Financial Post

https://business.financialpost.com/news/economy/budgets-housing-affordability-changes-to-focus-on-supply-demand-regulation

“The budget will respond to issues in the housing-related areas of supply, demand and regulation, says a government source, who was not authorized to speak publicly about the plan ahead of its release. They declined to provide specifics on the measures.”

“The government, however, faces a delicate task of introducing changes that avoid destabilizing housing markets, driving up prices or enabling already overstretched households to pile on more debt.”

southseacompany
Member
southseacompany

“Single-family home prices falling the fastest in Calgary, down $36K from last year”, CBC News

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/calgary-detached-house-prices-teranet-national-bank-creb-1.5054471

“Real estate prices continue to fall in Calgary, with single-family homes leading the plunge.”

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

That’s the nuclear option. If all else fails, I’m moving to Calgary.

Simple Solution
Member
Simple Solution

Bring a warm coat

Specuskeptic
Member

Remember he promised to leave this blog as well LOL.

southseacompany
Member
southseacompany

“Fed to hold fire on interest rates as world economy slows”, France 24

https://www.france24.com/en/20190317-fed-hold-fire-interest-rates-world-economy-slows

“There is virtually no chance the US Federal Reserve will raise interest rates in the coming week, since policymakers have all but promised to hold their fire as the global economy slows.”

“With inflation still tame as US economic growth decelerates in 2019, economists also say Fed officials will once again lower the number of rate hikes they expect this year, from the two projected in December.”

Burnabonian
Member
Burnabonian

More outliers.

Copy-pasted from twitter.com/mortimer_1

*****
Just sold for a $850,000 loss

5088 Blenheim St, Vancouver

Bought 2016 $3,450,000

Just sold for $2,600,000

2018 Assessed: $3,205,000
2017 Assessed: $3,704,000
*****
$1,102,000 loss + expenses… (Yes, that is not a typo)

3408 W 32nd Avenue, Vancouver

Bought 2016 2016 $3,902,000

Just sold for $2,800,000

2018 Assessed: $3,077,400
2017 Assessed: $3,583,400
****

Simple Solution
Member
Simple Solution

I guess realestate in vancouver sometimes goes down….

Dave
Member

Plus cash of _______?

Burnabonian
Member
Burnabonian

(nil)

If it was a shady cash deal, why the pantomime of slowiy ratcheting down the price every couple of weeks?

5088 Blenheim was still listed at 3.1 at the end of February. Today he was willing to sell for 2.6.

What would that be — reverse money laundering?

Simple Solution
Member
Simple Solution

Thats part of the genius scheme! That is what we are all missing! We think its just a house that has been listed a short time sold at a discount. The owner YIBING LIU is suuuuuper tricky though because he keeps on changing brokers so there are no price drops, just new listings! Finally when the price gets low enough BAM cash transaction executed, the millions in cash is counted (or maybe weighed, isn’t that how they do it in the movies?) and everyone is happy.

Simple Solution
Member
Simple Solution

YIBING LIU was the owner on W 32… havnt been bothered to dig on blenheim. Most likely some other specuvestor genius from Norway

Shut It Down Already (original)
Guest
Shut It Down Already (original)

And the best part is the longer they wait the more cash they get to make up the shortfall!

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

You have to ratchet the price down like that every few weeks. Otherwise you will get caught.

This way you have proof you tried to sell at a certain price but had to lower it.

Once deal is done, seller has no capital Gains Tax to pay. Especially if it was a corporation owned home.

Buyer benefits because the cash in China can be transferred within China.

Anyone want to bet me that the homes selling for ‘million dollar losses’ are between Buyers and sellers who are BOTH Chinese???

Best place on meth
Member
Best place on meth

Of course both parties are chinese.

No honest locals are buying houses for $3 million.

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

Nice scapegoat excuse.

If one home sells way below what others are selling in a neighbourhood, then cash is exchanging hands. Abroad in the case of Vancouver. Mostly in China.

You really can’t be that stupid not to see this, are you?

Shut It Down Already (original)
Guest
Shut It Down Already (original)

Why not report to the CRA? Be a hero!

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

Troll. You know it’s a common thing in both the Chinese and Indian community.

The difference between you and me is that my allegiance lies with Canada.

Shut It Down Already (original)
Guest
Shut It Down Already (original)

Report! You have the addresses, after all. Isn’t it your responsibility as a good citizen? If what you say is true and you’re turning a blind eye to it then where’s your allegiance?

Shut It Down Already (original)
Guest
Shut It Down Already (original)

Moron. Of course they are. Not everybody is a peasant like you.

Burnabonian
Member
Burnabonian

5088 Blenheim Street, Vancouver

Oct 9:$3,680,000
Jan 25: $3,163,800
Mar 18: SOLD $2,600,000

Assessed: $3,205,000
Bought Feb 2016: $3,450,000

In what narrative was there a cash side-deal? If so, why do it so publicly? Why involve the MLS?

The truth is that this is the story of a specuvestor who is bleeding money from his eyeballs and trying to salvage whatever he can.

Simple Solution
Member
Simple Solution

Another norwegian owner bailing out: XIANG MEI SUN

Laibach
Member
Laibach

Anyhow it’s always Norwegians in this city. Fucks made pretty cute playground for all their shit to play with and in the meantime fuck up the entire community.

Shut It Down Already (original)
Guest
Shut It Down Already (original)

Hush now, unintelligible racist fuckwit.

Laibach
Member
Laibach

Ah how boring, here comes usual imbecile. I thought you are in some institution for examination and treatment.

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

Don’t even start with that on this blog!

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

To the minions here, read this.

The homes selling for a ‘million below assessment’ are cash deals. They list on MLS to prevent the wrath of CRA. Then they lower the price in steps. That way, no way for the agency to prove that this was a tax evasion case.

The million dollar exchanges hands overseas.

How do I know this minions?

Show me one of these massive losses homes not being a Chinese-Chinese transaction?

FFS you guys are lacking in the IQ department. And an easier hint is look at other neighbouring homes. Are they going for a million off? And with steps on reducing price. You guys are a joke.

Best place on meth
Member
Best place on meth

We believe you oracle, said nobody ever.

Oracle
Guest
Oracle
I don’t care what you believe. What I posted is the truth. Just do this: After title is registered on these huge loss sales, check who the new owner is. Also check who the seller is: do they frequently travel back and forth to China? There are huge clues. But impossible for CRA to prosecute because ‘innocent until proven guilty’. When India’s market was hot, many people living in Canada who sold land there had to go to a currency exchange here place in Canada to bring the money over. The currency exchange place always had an Indian person who needed money in india and had money on Canada. The currency exchange place acts like an intermediary and then helps both parties evade capital controls and taxes. The currency exchange place pockets 3%. A win win win for all three… Read more »
Shut It Down Already (original)
Guest
Shut It Down Already (original)

LOL. What an imagination! And you have proof of this, right? Right? Oh.

Btw, the CRA are more than happy to place the burden of proof on the accused. You should know that by now.

Simple Solution
Member
Simple Solution

In any tax dispute the burden of proof is on the taxpayer NOT CRA. Oracle is once again living in fantasyland when he states CRA cant prosecute because “innocent until proven guilty”.

In CRA cases it is exactly the opposite…

Laibach
Member
Laibach

Oracle, ndp listens to you.

B.C. attorney general opens door to background checks for money transfer/exchange businesses

https://vancouversun.com/business/local-business/bc-attorney-general-opens-door-to-background-checks-for-money-transfer-exchange-businesses

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

Everyone with half a head on their shoulders know that these are meeting places for money exchange overseas and a reciprocal asset exchange in Canada.

That’s why “1 million below asking or what it sold for last year”.

And you guys can’t figure this out? NDP playing you guys again acting like they just discovered this. Lol

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

And just to tell you guys, nothing will come out of Ebys investigation.

The money exchanged hands overseas so out of jurisdiction and it never leaves China.

An asset exchanges in canada at well below market value. Nothing to see here because the minions think the market is crashing.

I have no faith in the Bears here. They have no fucking clue what’s going on.

Burnabonian
Member
Burnabonian

LOL. Reverse money laundering.

Makes so much sense.

Take an anonymous, untraceable, appreciating asset and convert it into massive amounts of useless cash that now needs to be laundered in order to appear legitimate.

Those reverse money launderers sure are driving down the market.

Simple Solution
Member
Simple Solution

When you put it that way, it all makes perfect sense!

Make Trudeau a Drama teacher again!
Guest
Make Trudeau a Drama teacher again!

The fact you post RELENTLESSLY means you do care what we think.

Dave
Member

I believe. Nobody leaves a million on the table for anything.

Simple Solution
Member
Simple Solution

So when they were selling for OVER assessment the buyers were overpaying? Surely you as a realestate expert must know that assessments dont tell the entire story…

And in any case they didn’t sell for 1M under assessment…

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

Sales were happening 11 months after assessment in boom times. So yeah, most were over assessment then.

dildonian
Guest
dildonian

5088 Blenheim just sold for 1.1 million under assessed.

Simple Solution
Member
Simple Solution

Nobody does leave a million on the table… assuming the million was on the table… Cant just go and force BC assessment to buy your house for what they assess it at….

Burnabonian
Member
Burnabonian

“Nobody leaves a million on the table for anything” – Dave

Not even if they were servicing their debt using equity, and now that that their equity is decreasing rather than increasing they are on the verge of default?

Not even if their lenders have a covenant for LTV ratio, and they are on the verge of calling the loan?

Not even if they got divorced?

Not even if they died and the estate was liquidating their assets?

Nobody ever sells under peak value, for any reason, ever?

Wow, that’s great news. I was worried there for a second.

Simple Solution
Member
Simple Solution

They are not a million under assessment… they are 10-20% below assessment. We can all agree that “assessments” will be EXTREMELY sticky on the way down – dont want to have to jack up the mill rate too much to keep property tax revenue coming in…

They are selling for what the market will bear today. Who knows what the market will bear next month or next year.

Ultra Bear
Guest
Ultra Bear

Wait a sec. If there were a cash transaction in China, don’t you think the chinese gov’t wouldn’t monitor this? Wouldn’t the social credit system already flag such transaction?

Gee Mr. X gave Mr. Y 1 million for apparently no reason and both of them have a tourist visa in Canada. Flag!

Simple Solution
Member
Simple Solution

NO NO NO.. the chinese government does not monitor ANYTHING that happens in China….

Oracle fantasies are getting awesome… Highly entertaining…

Shut It Down Already (original)
Guest
Shut It Down Already (original)

They’re senior members of the party and therefore get preferential treatment.

See how easy it is to generate irrefutable bullshit?

Simple Solution
Member
Simple Solution

He has a nuclear powered random lie generator….

My favorite is the CRA ‘burden of proof’ fantasy… He has obviously never had a dealing with CRA

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

Looks like I have to go through it point by point for you guys.

It does not matter if money is cash or a bank account transfer as long as it happens within China. If a bank transfer between 2 accounts, why would China look at that? If a cash transaction within China, no one will know except underground middlemen and currency exchangers there.

I think you guys are totally incapable of thinking outside the box.

Simple Solution
Member
Simple Solution

Our problem is we dont have the fantasy you do

Ultra Bear
Guest
Ultra Bear

China is a totalitarian regime. Spying on their people even for petty things is what they do. A fishy 1 million transaction would catches someone’s eye. They are no privacy laws over there.

Burnabonian
Member
Burnabonian

LOL.

Ockham’s Razor would like a word.

That is truly some flat-earther-grade conspiracy theory.

Maybe the Illuminati and the Rothschilds are manually controlling every transaction?

Simple Solution
Member
Simple Solution

He really sounds like someone who is waiting for the greater fool to take him off his position….

Burnabonian
Member
Burnabonian
My guess is that he’s personally overleveraged plus makes a career in the RE industry. Meaning that he has failed to diversify and has and deeply, deeply fucked himself. He sits in Earl’s at 2 in the afternoon pretending to be a day trader…even though the markets have already closed. But if you look at the screen of his $4,000 Macbook Pro, you see him checking MLS and trolling real estate bear blogs. I guess if you have a lot of tension about the subject, a great way to let it out is to rage at people in anonymous internet forums. He is probably hoping that he will be able to inject a little bit of doubt and fake news into the discourse. Basically spend his ample free time being a one-man Russian troll farm. What he doesn’t get is… Read more »
DaMann
Member
DaMann

God you’re such a shill. A friend just picked up a double lot off of a developer who was holding too much land and needed money fast. 30%, off of assessed and no there was no back door cash deals. News flash. Market is tanking.

Burnabonian
Member
Burnabonian

I have heard a similar anecdote.

Anyone interested can Google prospectuses for land assemblies in the lower mainland, and look at how long they have been on the market. These properties are not on MLS.

There are many, many choice lots and assemblies available in *very* choice locations right now. Upon which developers are declining to bid.

If anyone has their finger on the pulse of RE demand, it’s the developer who sells hundreds or thousands of presales a year.

He knows what he can resell and what he can’t. And right now, the big guys are in a holding pattern due to lack of demand.

These properties can easily be found on Google. Here is a small sample for the lazy…scroll to the bottom and note how few of them have a “sold” banner:

https://www.collierscanada.com/en/properties?t=2&keywords=vancouver%2Bdevelopment%2Bopportunity&rpp=6

trollerOfTrolls
Guest
trollerOfTrolls

Reminder that Oracle creates dummy accounts to make it look like people think he’s smart…

http://vancouvercondo.info/2019/03/luxury-mansion-rentals-for-dirt-cheap.html#comment-350115

Simple Solution
Member
Simple Solution

I love it when he calls me “son”

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

I’ve learned my lesson here. I’m going to let you people continue to be lost and bewildered.

By the way. It’s budget day.

30 yr amortizations back just with 1.99% mortgages and a inverted yield curve meaning mortgages are going lower.

Possible Huge increase in RRSP withdrawals for the bank of mom and dad to help millenials.

Possible that Stress Tests will be eliminated for the low end.

And you want to talk about what’s bearish? Lol

Simple Solution
Member
Simple Solution

MOAR debt! Always the solution and always sustainable forever….

There is no bearish news anywhere…. buy now or be locked out forever

Dave
Member

It’s ridiculous, but that’s what they’re going to do. What other ideas do they have? Are the Feds going to force municipalities to quicken development timelines or open up zoning and charge less fees? Are they going to make the process of building simpler or cheaper? Are they going to slow population growth so they can catch up. No. All they can do is print money one way or another. Don’t shoot the messengers.

Simple Solution
Member
Simple Solution

We shall see how pushing on a string works out for them….

Dave
Member

Them or us? They’ll try it and we’ll pay for it. What side of the debt coin do you want to be on? The one writing off the debt or the one picking up the bill? I think that’s a real question unfortunately.

Burnabonian
Member
Burnabonian

They will try.

But you can only push the NOS button on your 1999 Civic SI so many times.

Dave
Member

I agree, but I think they keep hitting the button until the car blows up. Since rates can still go lower, that’s what’s going to happen.

DaMann
Member
DaMann

The only thing I would condone ( truth be told it’s nothing, leave it to crash cause that is the only thing that makes RE more affordable) is to allow a greater amount of RRSP to use for first time home buyer. It’s their money after all, have 15 years to pay it back, and it doesn’t involve more debt. Anything else will just add even more debt

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

if you are talking about allowing inter-generational RRSP loans (which is currently not allowed), I see that as potentially being problematic…
– if mom/dad doesn’t have sufficient funds from non-registered source, maybe they should NOT be looting their retirement accounts in the first place
– what happens if parent’s RRSP loan (for kids DP) isn’t paid back before plan has to be converted to a RRIF

Shut It Down Already (original)
Guest
Shut It Down Already (original)

Nobody is loaning money from their RRSP because as we all know every buyer is from China or wherever. Every. Single. One.

Best place on meth
Member
Best place on meth

You lie as much as whoracle, asshole.

You two might be long lost asshole brothers.

Shut It Down Already (original)
Guest
Shut It Down Already (original)

Fuck off, unemployable racist scumbag. You can’t even provide an example of me lying, because that’s simply not me.

Best place on meth
Member
Best place on meth

Oh, you didn’t imply that one or more people here stated that “every single buyer is from china”?

Yes you did, weasel. That’s a lie told by a lying liar.

So when you accuse other of lying you’re also a filthy hypocrite.

A liar, a hypocrite and a race baiter.

These are self evident truths.

Simple Solution
Member
Simple Solution

HBP allows first time homebuyers to withdraw up to 35K…..

Bank of Mom and dad cannot withdraw (tax free) to give to kid…

So no need to worry about any of your ‘scenarios”

Burnabonian
Member
Burnabonian

OH WOULD YOU LOOK AT THAT

New budget contains FA on the housing file, except:

“The creation of dedicated real estate audit teams at the Canada Revenue Agency to tackle tax non-compliance and money laundering in the housing market.”

…plus a boost of RSP self-loan from 25k to 35k.

Zero stimulus, zero juicing.

Simple Solution
Member
Simple Solution

Looks like the focus is going to tax collection….

Shut It Down Already (original)
Guest
Shut It Down Already (original)

There’s no 1.99% fixed rate mortgage in BC. How many more times will you repeat this lie?

Simple Solution
Member
Simple Solution

the random lie generator is working at capacity.

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

A new surveillance plane is set to help monitor fisheries and catch illegal activity in the waters off Vancouver Island
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/dfo-surveillance-plane-campbell-river-1.5061645

Burnabonian
Member
Burnabonian

More of Oracle’s Reverse Money Laundering. (RML?)

Stolen from twitter.com/mortimer_1

Even east Vancouver condos taking losses… loss of $25,000 (+ expenses)

602 138 E HASTINGS STREET, Vancouver

Bought 2018 $420,000

Just sold for $395,000

2018 Assessed: $414,000
2017 Assessed: $371,000

Simple Solution
Member
Simple Solution

Thats actually a case of mistaking the washing machine for the paper shredder….

Burnabonian
Member
Burnabonian

LOL

You mean it’s not a vast, needlessly complex, international conspiracy between tens of thousands of people to make the market *seem* to be doing the exact opposite of what all evidence demonstrates?

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29
as much as you all might think his theory is absurd, i believe it does happen in some instances. just from a tax perspective alone, people would be easily tempted to trigger a lowball sale or even a loss just as they do with their investment portfolios. to potentially save hundreds of 1000’s or even millions, i personally think the added aggravation is well worth it. besides there are teams of agents, lawyers and accountants working feverishly on the case looking to structure these types of deals specifically…for a fee, of course. i also think by now, most of you all should be well aware that even the most absurd strategies and business practices once thought to have never occurred in this part of the world are in fact being uncovered with regularity as people who are supposed to be… Read more »
Burnabonian
Member
Burnabonian

No doubt it happens from time to time on the margins.

DaveOracle is claiming that that is what happens every time a property sells for significantly less than assessed.

Simple Solution
Member
Simple Solution

They treat “assessment” like it is something other that a tool the government uses to determine property tax rates…

If someone could force BC Assessment to buy their property for “assessed value” then the narrative would make more sense.

Simple Solution
Member
Simple Solution

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/real-estate/vancouver/article-previous-housing-data-understated-amount-of-non-resident-buyers-in/

But the CMHC’s latest Housing Market Insight report, released last week, shows the previously released data were off by as much as two to three times the actual rate of non-resident participation in home ownership. Based upon the new study, the numbers are actually 11.2 for metro Vancouver and 7.6 for metro Toronto.

Joe Money
Guest
Joe Money

As expected, local buyers drove the market, accounting for almost 90% of sales.

Fools.

Simple Solution
Member
Simple Solution

The influx of foreign capital and the debt driven FOMO of the locals feasting on the credit orgy….

What a combination

dildonian
Guest
dildonian

Unfortunately for the specuvestor, this dynamic is exactly as effective on the downslope.

Assessments dropping year after year, combined with anecdotes about friends and neighbors selling at a loss, is the new zeitgeist.

You can’t make your assessment go away no matter how much you want to. Like shit on a blanket.

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

Cdn Govt introduces First Time Home Buyer Incentive and increases maximum HBP withdrawal by $10000
https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/budget-cmhc-home-buyers-1.5063204

Simple Solution
Member
Simple Solution

HA HA HA… 1st time homebuyers can withdraw an additional 10K from RRSP…. Making the rather large assumption they actually HAVE an RRSP.

The shared equity mortgage is a joke.

Everyone who was waiting for added fuel to the fire is f&$%ed

Burnabonian
Member
Burnabonian

OH WOULD YOU LOOK AT THAT

New budget contains FA on the housing file, except:

“The creation of dedicated real estate audit teams at the Canada Revenue Agency to tackle tax non-compliance and money laundering in the housing market.”

…plus a boost of RSP self-loan from 25k to 35k.

Zero stimulus, zero juicing.

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

The budget is worst than I thought.

They are giving first time homebuyers 10% of the purchase price free. Correct me if I’m wrong.

$500,0000 condo will now shoot up to $550,000.

Trudeau needs to go.

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

They’ve essentially lit the low end of the market on fire for first time buyers.

A $400,000 condo in the valley now with 10% down and CMHC incentive becomes a $320,000 condo.

Rent will cover the mortgage.

This is much worse than I thought. I’m left with no choice but to buy a condo or townhome well into the valley as insurance because they’ve just started FOMO 2.0.

Simple Solution
Member
Simple Solution

More Oracle BS. You think this is going to be for investment properties? What a clown.

The feds have just launched NOTHINGBURGER 1.0 Go buy deeeeep in the valley as insurance.

Burnabonian
Member
Burnabonian

“Correct me if I’m wrong”

You are making shit up again.

They allowed you to “borrow” $10,000 more of your own money from your RSPs. Total amount is $35k, up from $25k originally set in 2009.

Totally irrelevant change to the Vancouver market.

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

refresh your browser. news is out

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29
Simple Solution
Member
Simple Solution

Read the actual budget… not the news snippet:

The Incentive would be available to first-time home buyers with household incomes under $120,000 per year. At the same time, participants’ insured mortgage and the Incentive amount cannot be greater than four times the participants’ annual household incomes.

Burnabonian
Member
Burnabonian

That applies to home values of 480k or less and households with $120k or less combined income who have never owned a home before and are not trying to buy at greater than 4x price-to-income.

People who meet that test are already priced out of Vancouver by a wide margin.

Might as well further restrict it to lefthanders who are capricorns and only turn their car left at noon on a Tuesday.

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

that is what is sounds like to me. there are questions about repayment…

-if value of home changes, is principal amount of repayment affected? if house doubles in value, do you have to pay back twice the loan amount? or does owner get a free ride? and what happens if prices theoretically fall by half? does CMHC get repaid full amount or have to take a 50% haircut? for all we know, the answer to both might be the latter, which is why they failed to clarify these points.
-what happens if owner never sells the property?

Burnabonian
Member
Burnabonian

An equity stake is an equity stake. The government is literally a co-owner.

If the value goes up, their value goes up.

And when it crashes, their value crashes.

This blows my mind on levels that I have not yet been able to comprehend.

For example, if the government literally owns a stake in hundreds of thousands of Canadian homes, how can they be expected to make impartial policy decisions?

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

“If the value goes up, their value goes up. And when it crashes, their value crashes.”

>>> these 2 points were not clarified. you never know, it could be a heads i win, tails you lose situation

Burnabonian
Member
Burnabonian

Could be but then it would not be an equity stake. It would be a loan.

If that were true, I believe they would have called it a loan.

I’m not even sure that it would be legal to call it by one term if it was in fact the other.

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

well, they never answered the questions. given the current and past shenanigans of this adminstration, I wouldn’t rule anything out at this point. if I was a betting man, I’d guess that eventually they will leak out details that support the idea this is “like” an equity stake but is in fact an interest free loan (which effectively never has to be paid back if the property is never sold). also, i am expecting the detailed terms to include having to take a haircut on principal owed if prices drop and a loophole allowing owner to buy out the govt’s portion at the discounted valuation.

Simple Solution
Member
Simple Solution

This requires new legislation. Lets see if the government can even get it through before the election…

The Government will propose legislation that would enable CMHC to offer the First-Time Home Buyer Incentive and administer a fund for third-party shared equity mortgage providers. More details about CMHC’s First-Time Home Buyer Incentive and funds to assist other providers of shared equity mortgages will be released later this year, with the programs expected to be operational by September 2019.

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

i agree, but this will buy a lot of millennial-renter votes. singh and sheer are basically forced to bring something to the table now…

Simple Solution
Member
Simple Solution

I totally disagree. But we will find out in time. Lets wait for the details to be released…

This will be exposed as the joke it is.

Anyone remember JustinE’s promise of Election Reform?

Burnabonian
Member
Burnabonian

If you are referring to the “shared equity” thing, it only applies to households that make under $120k.

Those households do not qualify for Vancouver housing in the first place.

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

huh? so a couple comprised of one teller and one waiter making say $100k combined can’t use this to buy an apartment? am i missing something?

Simple Solution
Member
Simple Solution

Yes, a couple that makes under 120K annually can use this to buy an apartment. Your example would allow them a TOTAL mortgage (which INCLUDES the incentive amount) of 400K.

Burnabonian
Member
Burnabonian

You are talking about a pretty narrow tranche of society:

-<120k combined income, but
-neither has ever owned a home, but
-they have $25,000 plus in savings, and
-they are willing to sink it all into a shitty apartment, but
-they haven't done so yet because they have lacked the ability to sell 10% of their home to the federal government in exchange for an extra $48k cash.

The 48k cash realistically reduces their payments by around $133.00/month.

So this theoretical buyer checks every available box, but was on the sidelines only because of a little over a hundred dollars per month.

Do you think that there are 100 families sidelined due to the lack of a hundred and thirty three bucks a month? How about 200?

Burnabonian
Member
Burnabonian

PS the government’s own rosy estimate is that this will stimulate 3300 sales per year across Canada.

Most of the sub$500k properties are not in the lower mainland. Does that mean that we will even get 10% of them?

PPS bank teller + waiter declared income does not allow them to buy anything here. At all.

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

-not that it matters, but govt estimated 100,000 over 3 yrs

-there are plenty of properties < $500k
-in your defence, they certainly won't be located in yaletown, coal harbour or probably anywhere in DT core but there are 100s, maybe 1000s in the burnaby's, new west's, surrey's tri-cities etc of the world. most importantly, the developers have this base price point to work around and will raise prices (in some cases) and/or lower sqft to accommodate this category of buyer

Simple Solution
Member
Simple Solution

Well actually it does matter. It matters quite a bit. Where did you get the 100K figure over 3 years?

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29
Simple Solution
Member
Simple Solution

Thanks for the link… now lets apply some math…

Up To $1.25B for the program. 100,000 qualified FTHB get $12,500 each… Makes total sense when you look at it that way…

What a joke

Burnabonian
Member
Burnabonian

For the rare family who will meet all of these tests simultaneously, it would reduce their borrowing costs by less than a single rate hike. (250 basis points on a typical rate of 3% is similar to the 10% free equity the government is talking about giving them.)

So for that small group, the government has just given them the same purchasing power they used to have in October 2018.

Ooh what a MASSIVE change.

Except that, as you correctly point out, the developers will just adjust prices accordingly and sell these buyers the same property at a higher price.

Creating a wealth transfer from Justin Trudeau directly to Canada’s real estate industry — developers and financiers. Which at the same time causes poorer families to be deeper in debt, and buys him votes that he desperately needs.

Sound about right?

Simple Solution
Member
Simple Solution

Nailed It!

FTHB can also just wait for prices to come down and not extend themselves to a get into a lifetime of mortgage serfdom.

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

this isn’t solely about raw numbers and whether a dollar here or there will make or break a deal. the fact that the govt is stepping in to do this will change the mindsets of other people looking in this price range too

Simple Solution
Member
Simple Solution

HA HA HA HA HA

Here comes MOAR FOMO!

Burnabonian
Member
Burnabonian

“Thank god the government is here”

Yes that is a familiar rallying cry amongst those who are by definition priced out and renting due to 15 years of obscenely bad government policy which allowed the largest real estate bubble in the history of the world to form.

Simple Solution
Member
Simple Solution

Oracle ran the numbers… there are billions…. all foreign students… all arriving and then bringing their extended families to also take advantage of the great offer.

Dave
Member

Don’t underestimate the psychology of free money. People will buy 12 crappy sandwiches to get a free one.

Simple Solution
Member
Simple Solution

Trudeau must go. I agree.

But once again you didn’t concern yourself with any data points some people refer to as “FACTS” when spewing your nonsense.

The Incentive would be available to first-time home buyers with household incomes under $120,000 per year. At the same time, participants’ insured mortgage and the Incentive amount cannot be greater than four times the participants’ annual household incomes.

Just a giant NOTHINGBUGER

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

i disagree with you to a certain extent. there are plenty of individuals/couples that would easily qualify under the income threshold. certainly anything up to $500k in value would be doable based on your calculations. fine, these buyers wouldn’t find a detached home for this amount here, but the bar has been raised at the low end imho. i’m pretty sure the baristas, waiters and cashiers are giving this a big thumbs up.

Simple Solution
Member
Simple Solution

Oh yeah, the cashier making $17/hour and the Barista making 30K a year are doing cartwheels…..

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

and so are the property developers

Simple Solution
Member
Simple Solution

Oh yeah. The $2Kper sq ft coffins in the sky will be in super high demand.

Bubble
Guest
Bubble

OK, good news for first time home buyers? If I were 30, I might not have any savings not alone $35,000?

Simple Solution
Member
Simple Solution

Here is more BULLISH news…

https://bc.ctvnews.ca/money-laundering-24m-for-new-audit-teams-to-target-real-estate-in-b-c-1.4342975

“We will also take action to crack down on the people who break the rules – who evade taxes or use real estate for money laundering – making housing less affordable for the people who need it,” said Finance Minister Bill Morneau in his budget speech.

Maybe just empty words in the end. But lets keep in mind the government needs tax revenue….

Laibach
Member
Laibach

“We will also take action to crack down on the people who break the rules – who evade taxes or use real estate for money laundering – making housing less affordable for the people who need it,”

Wonder what particular group of people they had in mind, probably overleveraged locals, right?

Simple Solution
Member
Simple Solution

Easy target will be “developers” who used the Principle Residence Exemption to avoid paying capital gains. They will target these guys first.

Everyone needs to remember – the CRA doesn’t have a “burden of proof” requirement. They can accuse anyone of anything and the taxpayer needs to prove his innocence…

patriotz
Member

” They can accuse anyone of anything and the taxpayer needs to prove his innocence…”

An assessment from CRA is not a criminal charge. They are just claiming you owe them money. You can challenge them in court, just like any time anyone claims you owe them money, and it’s decided as a civil case.

There is also an an offence of income tax evasion under criminal law. Like any other criminal offence, there is the presumption of innocence and guilt has to be proven beyond a reasonable doubt. That’s why very few tax cases result in criminal charges – it’s hard to get a conviction.

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

Don’t point out facts here. Simpletons will get angry.

Simple Solution
Member
Simple Solution

I never meant to imply that an assessment from CRA is a criminal charge. What I was pointing out was that CRA can assess whatever they want. The onus is on the taxpayer to prove their assessment is incorrect in court or out of court.

Simple Solution
Member
Simple Solution

Oh Dad, you have some knowledge to impart on us? Aren’t you busy FOMOing deep in the valley? You have time to impart you vast wisdom on us?

We are sooooooooo grateful

Specuskeptic
Member

Don’t point out facts here. Liars with vested interests and a menagerie of sockpuppets will get angry.

Doomcouver
Member
Doomcouver

I believe we’ll see more tax evasion cases referred to the justice department from the CRA. Ignorance of the law isn’t a defense so if there’s strong evidence a property wasn’t the primary residence, and they claimed it was such on their taxes, it should be a pretty easy criminal case for crown to win.

Shut It Down Already (original)
Guest
Shut It Down Already (original)

Patriotz will nitpick things like this but give blatant racism a pass.

Pathetic.

Burnabonian
Member
Burnabonian

24 million dollars for an “ace” team of auditors who are paid to hunt money launderers in Vancouver.

If Twitter users can find unbelievably shady transactions just by looking at Zolo, what do you think a professional auditor with a $24MM budget and access to tax returns will find?

I think the milk just got soured by around 24 percent, give or take.

Also, $1MM for the express purpose of improving data sharing around Real Estate transactions. The “Vancouver Model” just became obsolete.

Those banking on their specuvestment equity recovering after the recent bloodbath, how does this make you feel?

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

the full $24M is not being allocated to Vanc mkt alone but across Canada, with a focus on BC and Ont

Simple Solution
Member
Simple Solution

Across Canada? LOL. Looks like it will be focused on Vancouver and Toronto. All specuvesting tax cheats in Spuzzum should not be too worried…

Ottawa will spend $24 million to outfit the teams at the Canada Revenue Agency, which will focus on “high risk areas, notably in British Columbia and Ontario,” the budget says.

Burnabonian
Member
Burnabonian

Yeah where do you think they will start the search? Where do you think they will expect to fill their quotas?

Bumblefart County Nova Scotia? Lumsden, Saskatechewan?

Or will they start off with a list of $10MM+ mansions whose owners paid zero income tax in 2018, and nail assessments and penalties to their front doors using the hammer of fucking Thor?

CRA will literally inventory the type of mustard in your fridge (happened to someone I know) to estimate your income.

If their estimate disagrees with your return, the onus is on you to prove otherwise.

How many money launderers are going to stick it out once that starts happening?

All we have to be is less appealing than any alternative regime. Wouldn’t you say that this will change Vancouver’s appeal to the negative?

Shut It Down Already (original)
Guest
Shut It Down Already (original)

Ah, the court of Twitter.

Simple Solution
Member
Simple Solution

I have not been able to find any mention in the budget of the stress test being removed or of 30 year amortizations…

Finally some sanity

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

that doesn’t mean these measures won’t be implemented at another time. they might simply be keeping some powder dry

Simple Solution
Member
Simple Solution

Of course… hope springs eternal!

Or in the case of the Vancouver realestate specuvester HOPE DIES LAST

southseacompany
Member
southseacompany

“Federal budget offers first-time home buyers a break with $1.25 billion in mortgage relief”, Financial Post
https://nationalpost.com/news/canada/federal-budget-2019-offers-first-time-home-buyers-a-break-with-1-25-billion-in-mortgage-relief

“Potential home buyers in cities with white-hot real estate markets got some relief in Tuesday’s federal budget with an incentive program that could lower mortgage payments for households making less than $120,000 per year.”

“Prospective buyers who have the minimum down payment for a home can apply to finance between five and 10 per cent of their mortgage via a shared equity program administered by Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC).”

“The government is also increasing the amount that first-time buyers can withdraw from their RRSPs, from $25,000 per individual to $35,000 — or $70,000 per couple.”

Burnabonian
Member
Burnabonian

As Simple Solution points out, this is not legislation yet. It is therefore just an idea and a trial balloon.

To move forward, our embattled Prime Minister would have to:

-explain how it would actually work
-convince Canadians that the federal government should become residential real estate speculators using tax dollars
-confirm that the measure would be popular with most Canadians — as opposed to wildly unpopular
-get the legislation passed

It is quite probable that he will accomplish all of this before the election, but it was also quite probable that two of his senior ministers, his best friend, and his Clerk of the Privy Council wouldn’t quit his bullshit excuse for an impostor government in the span of a few weeks.

Don’t count your chickens.

Simple Solution
Member
Simple Solution

This would not be the first promise that JustinE doesn’t deliver.

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

not saying he wont drop the ball, but the promise of free money will sway quite a few people imho.

Simple Solution
Member
Simple Solution

Yup, sure will… right up until they figure out how free it is.

Brilliant move though. Throw out this nothingburber to developers and FTHB to make them both think something is being done.

Want to make homes more affordable for FTHB? Leave the market alone so it can cleanse itself of all the excesses

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

and don’t forget all the current owners who were looking for “something” to be done to prop market up. the Libs are attempting to appease everyone (owners + non owners) with one brush stroke

and poor John Horgan, who canned Krusty’s FTHB loan program only to possible see it come right back…

southseacompany
Member
southseacompany

Headline should read ‘”Federal budget offers real estate industry a break with a $1.25 billion stimulus package”

Burnabonian
Member
Burnabonian

LOL

Doomcouver
Member
Doomcouver

Hopefully the government is at the front of the line when the house is sold, otherwise the taxpayer gets screwed twice when the mortgage is underwater.

patriotz
Member

“Hopefully the government is at the front of the line when the house is sold”

If they were at the front of the line it would be a 2nd mortgage. If its actually an equity position they share equally with the owner on both the up and down side.

Simple Solution
Member
Simple Solution

It will be interesting to see what the final legislation looks like.

Doomcouver
Member
Doomcouver

Indeed.

Simple Solution
Member
Simple Solution

““Potential home buyers in cities with white-hot real estate markets got some relief in Tuesday’s federal budget with an incentive program that could lower mortgage payments for households making less than $120,000 per year.”

So FTHB will be able to get a maximum $480K combined mortgage and incentive… should really help in cities with “white hot real estate markets”

The reporters cant even be bothered to think how ridiculous that statement is…

southseacompany
Member
southseacompany

“The Fed has exacerbated America’s new housing bubble”, Financial Times

https://www.ft.com/content/219aaa52-4675-11e9-b168-96a37d002cd3

“Loose monetary policy has buoyed assets but did not create meaningful supply”

“The dysfunctional divide between incomes and asset prices is not just an American problem. It is observable in many international markets as well: including Hong Kong, London, Paris and Singapore. In the US, unsustainable real estate prices have recently begun to falter in bubble cities such as New York, something which historically foreshadows a national downturn.”

Doomcouver
Member
Doomcouver

The global recession is going to completely eviscerate housing markets around the globe. 2008 is going to seem completely inconsequential compared to the next downturn.

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

LOL

Best place on meth
Member
Best place on meth

No 30 year ams.

No shelving the stress test.

Eby finally gets through to that slug Morneau who will now target Norweigan money launderers and tax cheats….by the way, where is Eby?

Oracle’s losing streak continues with no end in sight.

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

Don’t count your chickens yet. Still time before the election.

Simple Solution
Member
Simple Solution

Hurry up and buy that insurance policy deeeeeep in the valley… Hurry before its too late…

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

Admin: can you ban this kid?

Simple Solution
Member
Simple Solution

oh dad don’t get angry at me…. Im just pointing out that if you dont hurry you will be FOMO’d right out the valley.

Didn’t you yourself say that you were going to hurry and buy in the deep valley as insurance against the FOMO tsunami that is about to be unleashed?

YVR
Guest
YVR

Giving Eby credit for something not in the federal budget. Now that is getting desperate. If Eby supported the stress test why did the NDP exempt BC credit unions from the same stress test rules?

Screwed
Guest
Screwed

BC credit unions have adopted the stress test at least mine where I work

Best place on meth
Member
Best place on meth

Pay attention YVR.

Eby has been screaming at the feds for over a year to target money launderers and tax evaders.

YVR
Guest
YVR

If Eby is so interested in targeting money launderers and tax evaders any reason why he doesn’t start by doing it here in BC? That Perter German report was so devastating for casino money laundering the NDP have increased casino revenue forecasts in their budget. Must be all those locals feeling better about going to River Rock to pull the slots with all that dirty money gone.

Dave
Member
Casinos are still being planned and built. Tells you all you need to know. It’s going to take a long time to fix all the dirty money n BC. These guys are smarter and more motivated than the regulators. Revenue Canada will never be the IRS. If we want to fix this, that Federal task force would need serious teeth. Won’t happen. Our judicial system moves too slowly and is completely incompetent. The Bacon trial is still ongoing a decade after the crime. This is a system created, run and managed by lawyers. Anybody really think they’re going to solve complex financial crimes when they can’t deal with a basic murder investigation? Cut down a tree at SFU and they’ll find court time for you tomorrow. Kangaroo courts can only solve kangaroo crimes. What a joke we are. Dirty money… Read more »
Burnabonian
Member
Burnabonian

They don’t have to catch every transaction.

They just have to make is riskier and less palatable than other available options.

Bring a hockeybag full of money to a casino or a real estate deal, get interviewed.

That’s all it takes and that’s what they are implementing right now.

Dave
Member

Where did you get the money?

I sold a house.

Enjoy your night and good luck sir.

Best place on meth
Member
Best place on meth

Sold the house for cash and took the money to the casino?

Ok. Sure.

Shut It Down Already (original)
Guest
Shut It Down Already (original)

“I sold a house and insisted on cash”.

LOL.

Shut It Down Already (original)
Guest
Shut It Down Already (original)

You mean simpler crimes require shorter court proceedings? Say it ain’t so!

Dave
Member

No I mean a murder trial that takes a decade and gives immediate attention to frivolous matters is symptomatic of a broken system.

Shut It Down Already (original)
Guest
Shut It Down Already (original)

If it were the system that weee broken then every murder trial would take as long. Newsflash – they don’t.