Friday Free-for-all! April 19th 2019

A very Good Friday to you all!

It’s the end of another work week and that means it’s time for another Friday Free-for-all, our open topic discussion thread for the weekend.

Here are a few recent links to kick off the chat:

So what are you seeing out there? Post your news links, thoughts and anecdotes in the comments below and have an excellent weekend!

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Oracle
Guest
Oracle
To Royce from last thread about Trump: —————— Royce McC Right? I’m 100% fine with bringing him up if it’s a discussion about his impact on real estate here. I mean on the one hand, given the source of much of the foreign $ in this market, it might be useful to have a “bull in the *ahem* china shop”. On the other hand… do I really believe Lower Mainland real estate is going to be helped by 1) a real estate developer who 2) is opposed to Fed rate increases and will probably resist them if he can find a way, 3) doesn’t have a problem with sketchy gaming of the tax system, and 4) is a baby boomer? Not really. In real life, I’m going to stick to pushing back on BS narratives like the “suffering” owners of… Read more »
StupidityCheck
Guest
StupidityCheck

Look at two different reactions to average Joe getting screwed in the 1930s.

Going hard left. The US did this under FDR, and it resulted in the healthiest middle-class in human history.

Going hard right/racist. That’s what Germany did.

Thoughts?

Big Bear
Guest
Big Bear

FDR was in a way a dictator too. He confiscated the entire nation’s gold, refused to leave office after two terms ( that’s why the imposed term limits after he died) and he tried to jam-pack the supreme court with minions.

Hitler was quite left-wing on economics.

YVR
Guest
YVR

“Going hard left. The US did this under FDR, and it resulted in the healthiest middle-class in human history.”

I thought America was never great?

Hard left back then was the same as right is today. I don’t recall FDRs medicare for all, confiscation of guns, banning of fossil fuels, transgender washrooms, identity politics, reparations, and all the other left priorities of today. Nazi Germany was actually more left wing than FDR. Government run everything.

Shit It Down Already(Original)
Guest
Shit It Down Already(Original)

FDR was the biggest presidential disaster for the US..(maybe surpassed by cousin Teddy…who turned the US into an imperialist power.)

FDR’s administration was infiltrated by communists and it was documented he was fully aware of the upcoming attack of Pearl Harbour…blockading Japan into a choice of fight or surrender.

The Great Depression was engineered by Wall Street…..Churchill was at the NYSE the same time the market crashed..he got a blunt lesson on WHO really runs the world.

The US role in globalist overarching politics is to be the military muscle for the oligarchs.

JT sucks
Member
JT sucks

Aside from some good “one liners” that Churchill was able to string together on the rare occasions when he was sober, he was no less of an idiot than FDR. Both of them were duped by Stalin by allowing him to grab half of Poland which got half of Germany in exchange, all of which would end up on Stalin’s side of Churchill’s famous “Iron Curtain” a year later. While FDR may have been near death and too sick by then to worry about affairs in distant Europe, Churchill had no such excuse.

Best place on meth
Member
Best place on meth

FDR began the welfare state, now everybody and their dog is looking for free shit from the government.

Democrats use these freebies to keep blacks dependent and voting for them, ie another form of slavery.

The US is bankrupt thanks to what FDR started but you think he was somehow brilliant.

StupidityCheck
Guest
StupidityCheck

Because THAT is the problem in the US! The poor have it too good! My God, you’re a fucking idiot.

YVR
Guest
YVR

The solution to help the poor become middle class is not democratic polices like free hand outs, open borders, regressive carbon taxes which hurt the poor the most and sending manufacturing jobs overseas. That keeps the poor poor. Trump created incentives for companies by lowering taxes and reducing regulations to create jobs in the US. Stopping illegals who are taking the poor people jobs and lowering wages will help further. Finally lowing everyones taxes so everyone keeps more. Trumps polices are proven effective with over 3% GDP growth and the lowest black and hispanic unemployment rates in history.

StupidityCheck
Guest
StupidityCheck

Did you read my original comment? Contrary to the false right-wing narrative that liberal policies create lazy moochers, the most liberal period in US history was also its most prosperous. Oops.

Meanwhile, conservatives ran the government (and cut taxes) right before both the Depression and Great Recession. Oops again.

BTW, illegals don’t “steal jobs” they are the result of US businesses wanting to pay less than market wages. Best fix for that? Unions.

YVR
Guest
YVR

Stupid guy the part you fail to realize and what you claim as the liberal period in US history is less liberal than today under republicans. I get it your stupid but that is pretty simple to understand.

Selective Memory
Guest
Selective Memory

Top federal tax bracket under Trump: 37%
Top federal tax bracket under FDR/Eisenhower: 90%+

I assume raising the tax rate will be part of making America great again? Although I imagine Trump thinks the last time America was great goes back a little earlier than that — right back to the Gilded Age.

Best place on meth
Member
Best place on meth

Think pre-china.

1979 is where it started going bad.

Shut It Down Already (original)
Guest
Shut It Down Already (original)

*you’re

YVR
Guest
YVR

“BTW, illegals don’t “steal jobs” they are the result of US businesses wanting to pay less than market wages. Best fix for that? Unions.”

Illegals can’t unionize. Just another reason companies hire illegals and the democratic open border policy is bad for regular workers. Trump wants secure the border and to bring in E verify which makes it illegal and difficult for companies to hire illegals. The democrats are preventing border security and E verify from being implemented. Are you really that dumb to see what is going on? The democrats are the party of billionaire elites and the really poor. Their polices are to keep billionaires billionaires and the poor poor with globalization and open borders. Stupid guy is an understatement for your intelligence.

franko
Member
franko

@StupidityCheck
Pot…Kettle

StupidityCheck
Guest
StupidityCheck

P.S. The US Debt/GDP ratio FELL from FDRs presidency all the way until Reagan. THEN it exploded thanks to Reagan’s excessive tax cuts.

What’s it like to be wrong about almost everything???

YVR
Guest
YVR

Ok stupid guy lets look at the real numbers. The debt increased under Obama more than all US presidents combined including Reagan. Reagan added $1.86 trillion to the debt compared to Obama’s $8.58 trillion. Obama is the only presidency to never have a single year above 2% GDP growth. By comparison Reagan had an average of 3.7% GDP growth over his 8 years. In summary Reagan had double the GDP growth with less than 1/4 the debt of Obama.

YVR
Guest
YVR

Speaking of being wrong about everything stupid guy, FDR had the biggest debt increase in US history as a percentage.

Franklin D. Roosevelt: Added $236 billion, a 1,048 percent increase from the $23 billion debt at the end of Hoover’s last budget, FY 1933.

https://www.thebalance.com/us-debt-by-president-by-dollar-and-percent-3306296

YVR
Guest
YVR

FDR jobless Rate for first 8 years prior to W2. What a disaster compared to Trump who has it at 3.7%.

1933 24.9%
1934 21.7%
1935 20.1%
1936 16.9%
1937 14.3%
1938 19%
1939 17.2%
1940 14.6%

StupidityCheck
Guest
StupidityCheck

FDR is at fault for the Great Depression which started 4 years before he took office? Interesting take.

xhistory
Guest
xhistory

Very helpful, thank you. As an added exercise, add a third column to the right of the percentage column: 2013, 2014, 2015, and so on.

StupidityCheck
Guest
StupidityCheck

The debt was caused by the Depression and (mostly) WW2. And instead of listening to some third-rate personal finance blog, just look at the data. The debt fell after WW2 until Reagan. Then it rose until Clinton brought it down. Then W Bush increased it with high spending and tax cuts. Then the Great Recession caused a huge drop in revenues (which I’m sure was Obummer’s fault?)

http://static3.businessinsider.com/image/4e872afbecad049e7d00000f/public-debt-as-a-percent-of-gdp.png

YVR
Guest
YVR

Stupid guy you have been owned.

Best place on meth
Member
Best place on meth

You’re right about Reagan and Bush, but you don’t want to assign any blame to Obama who did the same as those two, which shows what a partisan piece of shit you are.

xhistory
Guest
xhistory

When I think of the late 30s, in context to political economic history, and today’s turning of the wheel, I think of how J.Stalin liquidated his intelligences, and how it nearly cost him his country a few years later if it wasn’t for some fortuitous weather.

Royce McC
Guest
Royce McC
@Oracle: I’m not clear on what you’re saying. Do you think I’m suggesting anyone should be nice on this topic? Or that I want something other than a total collapse in prices? Because I can assure you – as a guy in a household with two high incomes, a big down payment ready to go, and non-local employment – I don’t give two ****s about the dangers of this market crashing. I’ll greet a 50% haircut with a Robert Redford nod and play wannabe sellers off each other without mercy. I was talking about the current POTUS and saying that for all the sound and fury we see here about the guy, he might not actually be a great way to produce a big price drop here. Sure, he might bully China and force Canada to step away from them… Read more »
Lost...but not Leased
Guest
Lost...but not Leased

Someone on GT blog said that commercial RE is experiencing a boom..given that all the Gov’t vacancy and speculation taxes etc. don’t apply tot his RE class.

Anybody got any data on this ?

Dave
Member

Not happening locally. Garth Turner is a dummy. Don’t listen to him.

Best place on meth
Member
Best place on meth

It wasn’t the dummy who said it, it was one of his even dumber followers.

Shit It Down Already(Original)
Guest
Shit It Down Already(Original)

My comment was not meant to engage in pissing matches.

….the point is do the existing laws to curb speculation etc . ????(ie dirty money from foreign locusts) include non – residential RE.

IMHO…..it should be across the board…..or we drive business sector away.

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

Don’t know why Garth isn’t in jail. The guy is worst than Madoff.

He basically denied foreign money influence in Vancouver. Bet a lot of widowed old ladies sold homes to invest the proceeds with his company.

The worst of the worst. We bash each other like crazy on this blog and call each other names but most here would hurt a widowed old lady. That I have faith in. We wear our heart on our sleeve. Agreed?

But GT is pure evil. He’s going to hell.

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

*wouldnt.

Damn auto correct.

Shit it down already(original)
Guest
Shit it down already(original)

Oracle…I wouldn’t bash Turner per se..

….he is consistent with his view that one should never put one’s eggs in a single basket…and too many bought into RE basket thinking they could get rich. His mantra is diversity.

Turner himself buys RE..often heritage buildings and restores them.

VCI is in a similar vein…how stupid is it to buy a shoebox in the sky especially when they are building them by the thousands ?

YVR
Guest
YVR

Commercial RE has been over valued for a long time. In part because much of it gets rezoned to residential RE in Vancouver. Most of the high density residential RE in Vancouver was once commercial. Just another play on speculation. Most businesses rent anyway.

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

old news. look at Richmond city center and all the wheeling and dealing that has gone on in the past so many years. basically much of the land zoned as commercial/farm has already been scooped up pre FBT, re-purposed and and greenlit while anything north of westminster will have a high rise built on it.

Best place on meth
Member
Best place on meth

4318 11TH AVE W, listed 3.238, sold 2.750, assessed 3.262 last year (3.821 in 2017).

2019 36TH AVE W, listed 3.498, sold 3.000, assessed 3.494 (4.027)

A loss of over a million plus fees in just under 2 years.

Real estate ALWAYS goes up, right?

Shit it down already(original)
Guest
Shit it down already(original)

Steve Saretzy’s latest…

—Seller had (3) offers on house listed for $2.5 Million….turned best offer down haggling over $25,000…

—-Saying Alt lender are now staring to push people into foreclosure..

—Example of a teacher who bought on West Side in 2001 for $700,000…house peaked at $4 million..HOWEVER…Saretzky did a title search and found the teacher had FOUR different mortgages on the property and has negative equity.

Make Trudeau a Drama Teacher again!
Guest
Make Trudeau a Drama Teacher again!

Capital Direct .ca (as the commerical goes)

Think about how many mortgages were APPROVED by these guys with LTV’s as high as 90%. Now these places have dropped 25% and these Alt Lenders are hugely screwed. All their security is gone.

YVR
Guest
YVR

Even with bank 65% HELOCs or 80% HELOC + mortgage (on top of differed property taxes) many are underwater now or at least out of HELOC room. The main issue is once there is no more HELOC room where does the mortgage payment come from?

patriotz
Member

“and these Alt Lenders are hugely screwed”

Note that the actual lenders are the retail investors, not the likes of Capital Direct who are middlemen. Also note that if the retail investors dry up, CD and their like will be forced to call the mortgages upon end of term even if the borrowers have been making payments. This sort of thing has happened in other markets.

http://www.incometrustone.com/

Make Trudeau a Drama Teacher again!
Guest
Make Trudeau a Drama Teacher again!

Right but my point is either way it spells the end of Capital Direct. They may not take the losses but with no money to lend out (and draw fees on) they are out of business.

Canada is for Canadians
Guest
Canada is for Canadians

Amazing that there were 3 offers on a $2.5 million house…

YVR
Guest
YVR

“Saretzky did a title search and found the teacher had FOUR different mortgages on the property and has negative equity.”

That would be why they didn’t take the offer. They are already bankrupt. The people taking the low ball offers now are the ones who already made money on YVR RE and can afford to take the loss. The bankrupt amateurs will follow once forced by creditors.

Canada is for Canadians
Guest
Canada is for Canadians

This Burnaby Chinese food app is looking to conquer Canada

https://www.burnabynow.com/business/this-burnaby-chinese-food-app-is-looking-to-conquer-canada-1.23791915

Not bad for a company started by a SFU student while he was still in school. Randy Wu actually quit school while he was just two terms away from graduation.
“Truth be told, I didn’t even tell my parents back in China when we started,”

Is this legal?
He’s here on a student visa then quit school and is running a company. Are they paying their taxes on this income?

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

Canada doesn’t care. There is zero enforcement here.

patriotz
Member

“He’s here on a student visa then quit school and is running a company. Are they paying their taxes on this income?”

First of all note that the business is run by a BC incorporated company which is responsible for paying the income taxes. It’s perfectly legal for foreigners to own such a company. In any case the business has been going since 2014 and it’s quite credible that he has become a permanent resident though some entrepreneur program. If you’re that curious why not ask him?

Canada is for Canadians
Guest
Canada is for Canadians

Well I’m not curious. Why don’t you ask him? You’re the one making the unfounded assumptions.

patriotz
Member

“Well I’m not curious. ”

Says the guy who asked the forum: “Is this legal?”,”Are they paying their taxes on this income?”.

“You’re the one making the unfounded assumptions.”

My assumption is that a guy who co-operates with a profile In Business in Vancouver Magazine is unlikely to be working illegally or not paying taxes. But if you feel that’s unfounded, it’s your call.

Canada is for Canadians
Guest
Canada is for Canadians

I just asked: “Is this legal” ? I didn’t go off with some half-cocked theory and spout nonsense ….

“a guy who co-operates with a profile In Business in Vancouver Magazine is unlikely to be working illegally …” really? I wouln’t be so sure about that one either ….

Shut It Down Already (original)
Guest
Shut It Down Already (original)

Way to contradict yourself, genius!

Best place on meth
Member
Best place on meth

239 26TH AVE E, assessed 1.394, listed 1.200, sold 950K

3451 51ST AVE E, assessed 1.557 (1.705 in 2017), listed 1.328, sold 1.351

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

Cherry picking stats?

What’s the average sale say?

Canada is for Canadians
Guest
Canada is for Canadians

why can’t you find that info for yourself ?

Shut It Down Already (original)
Guest
Shut It Down Already (original)

I love how pretending not to have access to the stats is part of your character. But honestly I’d recommend dialing it down a little.

Make Trudeau a Drama Teacher again!
Guest
Make Trudeau a Drama Teacher again!
Make Trudeau a Drama Teacher again!
Guest
Make Trudeau a Drama Teacher again!

This from Vancouver Real Estate Flips and Flops on Twitter

..Adding fuel onto the dumpster fire, panicked #GhostImmigrants who will sell at ANY price so as to a) avoid having a significant residential tax tie to Canada; and b) having target asset for #CRA to place a tax lien. Homebuyers should rent and keep their powder dry.

I wonder how many of houses owned by people in blind trusts and corps will sell due to the fact they do not want their identities revealed?

YVR
Guest
YVR

“I wonder how many of houses owned by people in blind trusts and corps will sell due to the fact they do not want their identities revealed?”

It is a great question. How many corrupt Beijing building inspectors or other government officials who make a few thousand per year salary in China have multi million dollar houses in Vancouver. The fact they will be able to be publicly searched for ownership right from China in 2020 is going to force some sales in the Fall of 2019. I bet lots of formerly $10 million plus trophy houses are sold at deep discounts at the end of the year. We may see the first of sales where we hit 50% of 2017 assessed on some really high end homes.

Doomcouver
Member
Doomcouver

We’re already in a downtrend, and I’d be surprised if it doesn’t make the price trend more aggressively negative. Panic sells will likely be clustered at the higher end of the market, but pretty soon the ultra-high end is going to start slamming into the lower rungs on the property ladder, then the whole thing goes down.

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

NDP is going to make it very difficult to search the registry. Mark my words.

They delayed the mansions on farmland so lon as to get every property grandfathered.

Take a drive on 168St around 33 aveneue. Mansion after mansion startling to go up.

But go ahead people, keep cheering.

xhistory
Guest
xhistory

Because it was brought up earlier in the thread, reviewing the 1930s and the current environment, there is a substantual amount of ink spilt studying this Fractal, substantively, or at least my two cents worth, the times then and the times now, if you are an abstract thinker, compare the two, of course, but Invert the outcomes, or actions.

Thus Stalin, as an example, liquidates the intelligiencia. Today, you see the reverse, or rather annihilation at the street level, of the people who have an inclination to manual labor, or rather, a life that isnt party to financialization. Taking this a step further.. the day soon arrives (early 40s) when labour (intelligence) becomes critical to to very effort of survival.

Canada is for Money Launderers
Guest
Canada is for Money Launderers

Homeless shelter, looming IPOs have San Francisco on edge

https://www.citynews1130.com/2019/04/21/homeless-shelter-looming-ipos-have-san-francisco-on-edge/

The market for single-family houses under $2 million is going nuts, especially in neighbourhoods attractive to millennials and young families, said Realtor Monica Sagullo.

Royce McC
Guest
Royce McC

“This city has a devastating housing affordability crisis driven by spikes in local incomes.”

“What is ‘not Vancouver’.”

Shut It Down Already (original)
Guest
Shut It Down Already (original)

An affordability crisis isn’t income-driven by definition.

Doomcouver
Member
Doomcouver

Explanation? In my mind an affordability crisis can definitely be driven by rises in incomes. A rising tide doesn’t always lift all boats, and there’s always some people being financially marginalized by a boom in incomes.

Royce McC
Guest
Royce McC

@SIDA: Uh-huh. What’s the source on that definition?

I’d tell the people who are being displaced en masse from neighborhoods they built and lived in for decades that it’s not a crisis, but I place a high value on not having my teeth kicked in.

YVR
Guest
YVR

The only difference is incomes in SF are local and taxed. Here ours are proceeds of crime in China and untaxed.

Screwed
Guest
Screwed

‘Maxed out’: 48% of Canadians on brink of insolvency, survey says
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/maxed-out-48-of-canadians-on-brink-of-insolvency-survey-says-1.1247336

Doomcouver
Member
Doomcouver

All this is while the economy is doing relatively well and unemployment is low. Canadians should have huge savings accounts going into the next recession, but instead they’ve plowed all their money into massively overpriced real estate, and our ever-ridiculous Canadian cost of living. We could very well be going into one of the deepest recessions in Canadian history, and everyone’s mostly ignoring all the warning signs. Many people will get financially destroyed and won’t have seen it coming.

Bubble
Guest
Bubble

“We look at some of the major property “price” sites and highlight the variations to be found. Who is right? How can we tell?”

https://youtu.be/luaUePwnhms

southseacompany
Member
southseacompany

“Canada’s ‘debt bubble of historical proportions’ could hit banks: Rosenberg”< BNN

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/canada-s-debt-bubble-of-historical-proportions-could-hit-banks-rosenberg-1.1247500

"A prominent Canadian economist is warning that record household debt levels in the country will hinder economic growth, and could be a problem for bank earnings. “The level of household debt is a big impediment to Canadian growth. It could be a problem – I think it will be a problem or a constraint – on Canadian bank earnings,” David Rosenberg, chief economist and strategist at Gluskin Sheff + Associates,"

Big Bear
Guest
Big Bear

This one is legal, but its price is completely retarded (3,900$ a night 🙂 ): https://www.airbnb.ca/rooms/33997048

SAD!
Guest
SAD!

What happens when a terrorist buys highly toxic and cheap Chinese fentanyl and deploys it in N. America?

SAD!
Guest
SAD!
Doomcouver
Member
Doomcouver

Someone would have to figure out how to gasify it before it’d be really dangerous. Otherwise you’re trying to disperse a powder, and it limits the area of effect.

SAD!
Guest
SAD!

how long until that money finds its way here?

China Considers Stimulus to Boost Consumers, Ease Trade Risk

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-04-17/china-is-said-to-weigh-stimulus-measures-to-bolster-consumption

Doomcouver
Member
Doomcouver

Not unless they relax capital controls at the same time. It’s never been more difficult to get money out of China.

Shut It Down Already (original)
Guest
Shut It Down Already (original)

Are you making a prediction?

SAD!
Guest
SAD!

Chinese nationalists see justice for Summer Palace razing in Notre Dame fire

https://www.cnn.com/2019/04/17/asia/china-notre-dame-summer-palace-intl/index.html

Canada is for Money Launderers
Guest
Canada is for Money Launderers

and the chineeze may wonder why no one likes them ….

Best place on meth
Member
Best place on meth

Chinese never let go of anything, no matter how long before they were born that it happened.

It’s the sickest, most pathetic culture on earth.

Shut It Down Already (original)
Guest
Shut It Down Already (original)

Nationalists of all kinds are scum.

Thanks for noticing.

YVR
Guest
YVR

Certain kinds are more scummy than others.

Best place on meth
Member
Best place on meth

Finally, the asshole admits chicoms are all scum.

aaa
Guest
aaa

Texas cancer center ousts 3 scientists over Chinese data theft concerns

The MD Anderson Cancer Center was among 55 medical research facilities contacted by the NIH over concerns of researchers’ ties to foreign governments.

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/asian-america/texas-cancer-center-ousts-3-scientists-over-chinese-data-theft-n997151

Make Trudeau a Drama Teacher again!
Guest
Make Trudeau a Drama Teacher again!
Big Bear
Guest
Big Bear

Must be a typo…

Doomcouver
Member
Doomcouver

Yeah they’d be lucky to get $5,000 a month. The rental yield gets exponentially worse as you move up the property ladder in Vancouver.

Shut It Down Already (original)
Guest
Shut It Down Already (original)

Rent It Furnished are notorious for this. Nothing new here.

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

not a typo as same rate is quoted on agent’s website too. not a chance this rents for that amount (or owner even intends to do so), but i suspect there is some other reason for posting/advertising this as such.

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

Why this quiet Vancouver neighbourhood is a traffic nightmare
https://www.vancourier.com/news/why-this-quiet-vancouver-neighbourhood-is-a-traffic-nightmare-1.23795774

>>> when the powers that be focus 100% on real estate and the rewards and gifts that come along with it, this is the result

Make Trudeau a Drama Teacher again!
Guest
Make Trudeau a Drama Teacher again!
Dave
Member
It’s happening earlier than expected. My guesstimate of when we’d start seeing more of this was another 8 months away. It’s only going to get worse as more of the 2016 / 2017 condos complete and as prices fall. I made a prediction that developers would start giving incentives for closing but $100,000 has already exceeded my expectation. My number was $50k. If I was a pre-sale buyer completing sometime soon, I’d call up the developer and say I’m having a hard time completing and they better cough up some $$$ to get me to the finish line. Developers are going to be dealing with this more and more. I know that might make a lot of people happy, but it really shouldn’t. We want developers to stay solvent and profitable so they keep building.
Shut It Down Already (original)
Guest
Shut It Down Already (original)

“Incentives” are price reductions structured specifically to not influence the market stats or show up in other records. It’s tantamount to fraud.

YVR
Guest
YVR

It is more about preventing already contracted buyers from backing out. New product gets priced lower. They don’t bother with the incentive games if there aren’t buyers who already committed to higher prices.

Shut It Down Already (original)
Guest
Shut It Down Already (original)

They don’t want to have buyers back out because they know they’d struggle to find a replacement at the same price. They’ll register the sale at the original price despite there being a clear price drop between the original presale contract date and closing.

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

Government intervention in B.C.’s property market is tarnishing the province’s reputation with international investors, says the head of a major local property brokerage
https://vancouversun.com/business/commercial-real-estate/commercial-real-estate-vancouver-developing-a-bad-reputation-for-foreign-investment

Canada is for Money Launderers
Guest
Canada is for Money Launderers

Except that the “government intervention” has been in residential real estate, not commercial.

“Chinese investment and immigration to Metro Vancouver is essential to this market, as 80 to 85 per cent of business immigrants who come here are now from China. ” We don’t want their dirty money any more.

Dave
Member

The foreign money has dried up and it’s not coming back anytime soon. It’s not just the taxes but also the transparency. A lot of that money came here because it was easy to move around and hide. Now there is a real risk of being exposed with all the changes being done by the NDP. Better to put your money into gold or bitcoin rather than gamble on YVR real estate.

Now the only thing holding the market up are locals. While the underlying demand is there, the question is what price.

Simple Solution
Member
Simple Solution

EXACTLY… plenty of local demand, the only issue is local demand relies on local incomes.

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

i would guess the supposed wide scale release of this data will never see the light of day and any effort to push the initiative forward will be tied up in the courts for years. besides, in another yr or two horgan and james will still be trying to process and enforce the 2018 spec tax notices. first things first…

Dave
Member

Ya, I’m sure it will be a lengthy rollout, but that’s actually worse for the market than not. The constant anticipation will be enough to keep that element of the market scared.

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

believe what you want, but connected politicians, business folk and other upper crust types (not necessarily HAM) will ensure that this info is never allowed to be easily (and anonymously) accessible by the public. for that matter, I, myself am not totally psyched about some random person being able to punch in a name (just for fun and at no cost) and retrieve ownership data on everything that is associated with that person. simply not gonna happen imho…

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

if they are indeed going this route then a record of who retrieved your records must be made available to the owner (just like your credit report or bank records for instance).

Simple Solution
Member
Simple Solution

I don’t think it matters if it is publicly accessible…if the record is there it can be subpoenaed, government can search for tax compliance, FATCA requests….

That is enough to scare away anyone who has a need for “increased privacy”

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

i get what you are saying, but the database has to be constructed first. given they are effectively searching for 1000s of needles in haystacks which happen to be buried in undisclosed locations, the task will be way more difficult than they can probably imagine. at the end of the day, the registry also has to be complete, not just a sampling of suspected individuals that may happen to live in certain neighborhoods. meanwhile, others who might have ties to the govt or other well heeled entities have their files moved to the bottom of the pile in perpetuity and never have comply. imho, there is zero chance this can get off the ground before the next prov election and the moment someone of influence is poked and prodded, the whole operation escalates into a legal quagmire

Dave
Member

You raise good points. It’s not a simple task. I don’t think it’s a terrible idea for the government to do it though. It’ll probably pay for itself tracking down all the tax cheating. Or just ask the Chinese government to donate $50 Million to pay for it. They’ll gladly do that to track down dirty money they want back.

But as far as real estate goes, the fear of this new policy will scare a lot of the sketchy money out there. So the longer it takes to implement, the more negative it will be on the market, which is a win for bears.

Shut It Down Already (original)
Guest
Shut It Down Already (original)

What makes you think the query interface will be that way?

And what are you hiding?

Shut It Down Already (original)
Guest
Shut It Down Already (original)

You’ll reject whatever data is released if you don’t like it.

Shut It Down Already (original)
Guest
Shut It Down Already (original)

ALL the money has dried up because buyers don’t want to dive in to a falling market. Bubble psychology 101.

YVR
Guest
YVR

A little bit of the chicken and the egg. The foreign money dried up first. Now the locals are cluing into the falling market thing.

Best place on meth
Member
Best place on meth

Of course the locals do as the vermin do.

Chinese buy, locals buy too.

Chinese stop, locals stop too.

Vancouver real estate psychology 101.

Shut It Down Already (original)
Guest
Shut It Down Already (original)

I’d love to hear your theory for the mechanism behind that quite laughable claim.

Best place on meth
Member
Best place on meth

It’s not a theory.

I just explained how the market here works and I even kept it simple, so simple that a fucking simpleton could understand.

You have a long road ahead of you before you can elevate yourself to simpleton status.

Shut It Down Already (original)
Guest
Shut It Down Already (original)

The fool who sat on the sidelines for their entire life, unable to do a simple buy vs rent, seems to think that they understand the market. LOL.

You missed out on an absolute fortune and have nobody to blame but yourself.

Best place on meth
Member
Best place on meth

And this is where your hypocrisy really shines.

You constantly slam people who participate in this ponzi scheme on one hand, but when it’s convenient you insult others for not participating in this ponzi scheme.

Everyone but you understands the simple premise this ponzi scheme is based on.

Doomcouver
Member
Doomcouver

Good? The main things our “good reputation” with international investors has brought us is unaffordable real estate, money laundering, and the fentanyl crisis. I think a little less Chinese foreign investment will be a good thing.

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

Prices drop, developers offer incentives as Vancouver condo market cools off
One developer is offering a $100,000 bonus to encourage presale buyers to complete their contracts
https://vancouversun.com/business/real-estate/prices-drop-developers-offer-incentives-as-vancouver-condo-market-cools-off

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

Sometime in the first six months of 2018, the CRA wrote off more than $133 million for unspecified excise taxes or excise duties owed by one taxpayer
https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/tax-excise-alcohol-auto-chrysler-wudrick-biram-canada-revenue-agency-cra-write-off-1.5101848

Canada is for Money Launderers
Guest
Canada is for Money Launderers

As long as the restaurant waitresses keep declaring all their tips we should be fine …

Shut It Down Already (original)
Guest
Shut It Down Already (original)

So you support not declaring income depending on who the subject is? Interesting.

YVR
Guest
YVR

I think we can all agree someone making poverty level income who skips paying taxes on a relatively small amount of tip money and would be taxed at a very low rate anyway should be less of a target than a millionaire evading taxes on $133 million taxed at the highest marginal rate. Like police going after homeless jay walkers while ignoring the fentanyl dealers because the jay walkers are easier targets.

Shut It Down Already (original)
Guest
Shut It Down Already (original)

No, we can’t agree on that. If tips are as small as you say and also taxed at a favourable rate then there’s absolutely no reason not to declare them.

I would also hazard a guess that there’s likely far more than $130m in undeclared tips annually and that in general a large individual target is a far easier to pursue than tens of thousands of servers. Note that the CRA themselves, however, stated that write-offs of this magnitude are not common. Focusing on outliers seems to be par for the course here, I suppose.

I’m not sure why you brought marginal rates into it either – it wasn’t evasion of income tax.

YVR
Guest
YVR

Good to know you think we should pursue the working poor for every last penny CRA can extract and let the wealthy criminals go free.

Shut It Down Already (original)
Guest
Shut It Down Already (original)

I never said that, you utter clown. I say the law should be applied equally to all, but I’m not at all surprised that you seem to think that people can pick and choose what they want to follow and what they ignore. I thought it was only those nasty foreigners who did that?

If you think the law isn’t fair then take positive action to raise awareness and have it changed.

patriotz
Member

“should be less of a target than a millionaire evading taxes on $133 million taxed at the highest marginal rate.”

First of all it’s excise tax, i.e. a form of sales tax, which is flat rate not marginal rate. I have no doubt this taxpayer is a corporation not an individual. Individuals simply don’t carry on business on this scale in their own names even if they could, and there are only a handful of super rich who could.

It may well be the final writeoff for GM Canada or a similar bankruptcy.

Doomcouver
Member
Doomcouver

As a taxpayer I find this deeply offensive.

Doomcouver
Member
Doomcouver

‘We need to transform housing politics’: Treating homes as commodities has caused crisis, sociology prof says
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/housing-crisis-politics-commodity-david-madden-1.5107257

A good article about the case against supply-side solutions to the housing crisis. If investors are just going to treat houses like stocks, building more houses won’t necessarily fix the issue. It’s like assuming mining more gold, or drilling more oil will make those commodities cheaper — it generally doesn’t work that way. Governments should be working to de-commodify real estate, and ensure housing is purchased primarily for utilitarian uses, not for speculative ones.

Shut It Down Already (original)
Guest
Shut It Down Already (original)

We’ve known that for years. The problem is that the government is in the business of preserving equity.

YVR
Guest
YVR

“It’s like assuming mining more gold, or drilling more oil will make those commodities cheaper — it generally doesn’t work that way ”

Since when does it not work that way? It works that way if supply increases more than demand. Opec can lower the price of oil world wide with the stroke of a pen by increasing supply. They don’t want to lower the price of oil so they restrict supply to meet demand. With housing the government does the same. They actually control zoning on the supply side and credit availability on the demand side along with taxation on both sides. You do the math on what the government wants. They are just like Opec with oil. They want higher prices. If they didn’t prices would be lower.

Shut It Down Already (original)
Guest
Shut It Down Already (original)

Opec don’t want higher prices because that’s when non-conventional sources start to become economical again. They lowered prices to push some of these players out of the market by increasing supply only a few years ago.

Doomcouver
Member
Doomcouver

Because if you’re in the middle of an oil or gold mania, there is insatiable speculative demand for it. For example a 20% increase in production might only lower the commodity price like 2%. Fighting speculative pricing with more housing terrible idea. Because when the speculative demand inevitably dries up you end up with a massive asset price crash, and excess inventories that won’t sell.

patriotz
Member

” Opec can lower the price of oil world wide with the stroke of a pen by increasing supply.”

OPEC has existed pretty much on paper for decades now. It has no ability to make collective decisions. Not surprising when two of its biggest producers are Saudi Arabia and Iran.

It’s really just the Saudis and to some extent their friends UAE and Kuwait who are calling the shots, over the objections of other OPEC members. They have most of the low cost production and thus have leeway to raise or lower and still make money.