Central 1 credit union is forecasting further big drops in sales and a “marshmallow soft” market for the next few years.

The province’s median home resale price across the year is expected to decline 4.1 per cent in 2019, then a further 1.2 per cent in 2020. This will be followed by the most meagre of recoveries in 2021 with a 1 per cent rise, which doesn’t even bring the median back to 2019 prices.

The biggest short- to medium-term price declines are expected, unsurprisingly, in Metro Vancouver, said Yu – but this could be what puts the market back on track in the longer term.

“In Metro Vancouver, on a benchmark basis, prices are down around eight per cent and we’re expecting that to fall further, giving us a total peak-to-trough decline of about 12 to 15 per cent. So that will erase a lot of the gains we saw from 2016 onwards. But this should pull some people back into the market.

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