End the week already, I want to get off!
Time for another news round up and open topic discussion thread for the weekend, here are a few recent links to kick off the chat:
–vancouve lux RE weakest in world
–one year without a price increase
–
So what are you seeing out there? Post your news links, thoughts and anecdotes in the comments below and have an excellent weekend!
One in five Millennial home buyers commits mortgage fraud
https://www.vancourier.com/real-estate/one-in-five-millennial-home-buyers-commits-mortgage-fraud-survey-1.23940996
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“Nobel Laureate Shiller Says U.S. Home Prices Could Start Falling”, Bloomberg
“The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller index of property values in 20 cities decelerated for a 15th month in June, increasing 2.1% from a year earlier. Shiller noted that adjusting for inflation, prices had already flattened.”
““It would suggest declining home prices in the near future,” Shiller, who teaches at Yale University, told Bloomberg Television on Thursday. “I wouldn’t be at all surprised if house prices started falling.””
Canada managed to sidestep the last housing crash in the USA with secret bailouts and dropping interest rates nearly to zero. There won’t be a repeat performance if it happens again. The overvaluations in Canada are so pronounced now that nearly anything could topple the market, including a light housing correction in the USA.
“Greater Vancouver Real Estate Prices Enter Technical “Correction””, Better Dwelling
“The rate of price growth is improving, but prices hit a new milestone – a technical correction. The 8.3% decline made in August is an improvement from the month before, and marks the second consecutive uptick. Prices however are still falling lower, and have rolled back to May 2017 levels. Compared to the peak, prices are now 10.05% lower across Greater Vancouver. Falling 10% below is the point when a technical correction for prices is made. This the first-time the REBGV composite has made that move recently.”
I’m expecting one last large dead cat bounce to sucker the last of the speculators on the way down. I can easily see the market “recovering” to near 2017 levels in early 2020 just to fall off a cliff in late 2020. We’ll see…
Taxi companies ask court to strike down rules allowing Uber and Lyft to operate in B.C. http://vancouversun.com/news/local-news/taxi-companies-ask-court-to-strike-down-rules-allowing-uber-and-lyft-to-operate-in-b-c
Hilarious.
Seems like karma to me. The taxi companies should have used all that lag-time getting ride hailing to fix the abysmal problems with taxis in the GVR. Instead they wanted to try and use artificial scarcity to make more money, and now it’s going to burn them. It’s really difficult to feel sorry for the taxi companies right now.
The Globalists in the UK are just too powerful.
They blocked Brexit. Brexit was the will of the people via a referendum.
We are entering new times. Democracy is dead.
The people got lied to. Things like Brexit are too important to allow people to vote a yes or no. ‘Minions’ are too easily swayed by misinformation and outright lies.
The Brexit referendum was over 3 years ago. It resulted in a narrow victory without bothering to think about the implications. While the younger population had adapted and voted to stay, the feeble old generation voted to leave because they were stuck in a time warp of the old empire and couldn’t accept the idea of playing second fiddle to Germany. Surely, demographics have changed enough in 3 years to warrant another referendum as the number of young voters will have increased while the old ones have declined. Can’t think of an easier way to resolve the mess.
The odds are 10:1 against a second vote. Seems like a good bet to me at that level.
It will get settled in the next election which looks to be coming soon. If there is an election Brexit will win based on the ridings. 60% of the ridings the majority voted to leave. Not even close.
I don’t like either of the options. On one hand, the Europeans are a bunch of dopes and the globalist dorks in Brussels can suck it. On the other hand, Britain is inextricably linked and tied to Europe and economic integration is unavoidable. The problem is that there isn’t any middle ground. Maybe Norway is the closest thing to that.
If you have been to London in the last few years you would know Brexit is the only option. The place is polluted with people who enter the EU in various countries and they flock to England. England has zero control who comes in and how many. Long term the EU won’t last anyway. There will be more countries to exit soon for other reasons.
The only people “polluting” are the supremacist fuckwits like you.
Shove your open borders up your ass, dirtbag.
“economic integration is unavoidable.”
That’s why the EU is a failure and is doomed.
It should have been strictly an economic union in the first place, not a political union.
The last thing Europe needed was another layer of useless, self serving bureaucrats ruling over the nations that already had far too many useless bureaucrats.
You mean they’ll re-elect the party which has already failed to deliver on the referendum result for 3 years now? Yeah, that’ll settle it.
In the next election there will be a pro-brexit candidate in each riding. Hard to believe how clueless you are.
And there’s a pro-Brexit party which is larger than the current government?
Idiot.
in other words democracy doesn’t matter.
Conspiracy theories now? Who are these powerful people, wise Oracle?
brexit is withdrawal of UK from EU. there are people who are for and against this. it’s a divisive political issue. people and groups with political agendas exert influence to advance their agendas. not sure why you are bringing up conspiracies.
Implications that a group of people are somehow more powerful than democracy wreaks of “deep state” nonsense, that’s why.
i guess you haven’t heard of lobbyists.
The NDP failed big time. I can basically guarantee you that they won’t get re-elected. Guaranteed.
1). Still pandering to the taxi mafia.
2). Icbc premiums up. Still won’t fix payments to auto body shops, Autoplan broker commissions, etc. They are screwing the customer. Big mistake.
3) Rents continue to go up. Won’t fix foreign student issue.
4) low end house prices are higher than when election took place.
They won the last election because three groups of people voted for them:
A) people who were angry at Christy Clark
B) people who believed that they were different
C) minions.
They won’t win again if only minions are supporting them.
———-
The people behind the scenes run both parties imo.
In any case, I think the bc greens will call an election soon after the federal election. Momentum.
Just watch.
NDP worst liars ever. Where’s the renters tax credit that would have lowered prices on the low end??? Fucking motherfuckers.
I think it would be the best thing for the Greens to do it now because they’ll still pick up some of the BC Liberal voters that went Green in protest of Christy Clark. As time goes on, they’ll get less and less of that voting block. But either way, they’re screwed. The NDP would get a majority and the Greens would lose a seat or two and lose their minority influence, even though it’s non-existent right now. The Greens have nothing to run on more or less. The only thing they can grab onto at this point is opposition to the pipeline. Once it starts getting built the protestors will come out. The Greens could grab onto that and demand the NDP block construction or they’ll call an election. At least in that case, the Greens go into an… Read more »
They didn’t win the last election.
This level of Oracle panic can only mean that valley home prices are crashing. Sawdust equity goes poof.
Canada officially has 2% of its population as foreign students now.
If so, that has obvious implications for housing, real estate, and education. However, it is not a discussion point with any party, and that silence supports your statement below that “people behind the scenes run both parties”,
Oracle made that up.
Na… Oracle knows the government lies about the number so he personally counts all foreign students in the country.
2% would be 800K students…. his number is barely 3X the official number. Very modest BS by his standards….
Penticton Hiring and Workforce
Housing Forum
September 18th, 9am-5pm
https://www.hiringandhousingforum.com/
This is a problem just about everywhere. The economy Heloc’ers have screwed themselves. Workers can’t afford housing. This forum is run by people who caused the problem, trying to figure out ways to solve it. Go look in the mirror assholes.
I’m going to play identity politics here, the favorite game of the left as they’re shrieking RACIST, SEXIST, HOMOPHOBE at everyone who’s not on board with their viewpoints.
Why are there 4 black people in that photo out of 15 people total?
Is this supposed to represent Penticton?
The HiringandHousing forum, is further evidence that it was Refinancing the Mortgage over and over and over again, and nearly everyone doing it, that drove prices higher…
All this moaning about Asia blckkkk! But very little light on Refinancing, Carry trade, synthetic money, QE as financial crack cocaine.
The homeless worker, of course, the guy they are still trying to Leverage, appears to be the answer to the debt addicts troubles. Now there are special gatherings to find out the latest intelligence on these elusive creatures. As rare as the Spotted Owl!
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20K party!
Retard!
You don’t seem to mention inventory at all any more. I wonder what happened?
Summer doldrums.
Inventory is going up again!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Don’t think so. I think we’ve reached a bottom.
Record immigration as well.
“Vancouver Detached Sales Bounce in August But Context Matters” Vancouver Condo Guide
https://stevesaretsky.com/vancouver-detached-sales-bounce-in-august/
“August detached housing sales surged 25% year-over-year. That makes for a great headline and if you didn’t have any context you would assume the detached market was booming. However when we contextualize this movement we can see that detached sales despite the large uptick year-over-year, sales are actually still below the 10 year average. In fact, detached sales were 21% below the 10 year average for August, and even further below the 19 year average below.”
“August detached housing sales surged 25% year-over-year”
Nice job NDP!
In your haste to react by jerking your knee as fast as you could and blame the NDP for yet something else, you didn’t bother to read the fine print.
Sales were up in August compared to a historically abysmal August 2018. Sales were still shitty.
Meanwhile, prices fell yet again last August.
That must piss you off immensely.
Are you delusional man?
NDP hasn’t accomplished anything on housing except for the high end.
Who exactly would you recommend we vote for to fix the housing market instead? The Liberals pumped the real estate market for 16 years and would undoubtedly continue to do so if they were still in power. I’ve never figured out why you’re such a die-hard NDP-basher. Did John Horgan run over your childhood dog or something?
Because he wants the NDP out so the Liberals can get back to pumping the market.
He’s clearly a shill and wants prices to go higher while pretending to want lower prices. He’s an idiot. The NDP criticism is laughable. he just wants the Liberals back in so he can actually sell some houses again. Must suck being an agent in this market
Ah the old you must be a realtor. Sorry I just hate liars and communists. The NDP are both. If you can’t see them failing miserably on housing then you are just plain dumb.
If things are so great under the NPD when do you plan on buying? Better do it soon before your wife leaves you.
So under the Liberals the market went up what? 300% ?under the NDP it has gone down 10%. I’m no NDP fan but as far as housing is concerned they are the only option. You guys act like the Liberals would come back in and do a better job at lowering house prices. That’s moronic.
and my shill post was directed at oracle
There is no election right now so kind of a dumb question.
25% year increase over year is not a good trend no matter how you want to spin it.
so 25 % above one of the worst August in history last year. so in other words it’s still crap out there.
“In fact, detached sales were 21% below the 10 year average for August, and even further below the 19 year average below.”
Amazing how much of this market is built on fear
It’s not a trend, it’s a single data point.
Rents allowed up by 2.6% in 2020.
https://www.citynews1130.com/2019/09/04/maximum-rent-increases-in-b-c-set-at-2-6-per-cent-for-2020/
It’s looking like a balanced market to me. MOI is 6. Right in balanced territory. Sales have inched up, but have stabilized. Inventory isn’t growing to all time high levels. The bear case needs more inventory… a lot more. Where is it going to come from? We needed to hit 18,000 to 20,000 units and we fell short. We might get a minor bump in the next few weeks, but it won’t be enough to push the market over the edge. It’s not looking likely that we’ll get a negative equity crunch. Prices are up 25-30% over the last 3 years. We’re not headed to the extra 10 – 15% drop to force that issue. Pretty much all pre-sale buyers completing today are in the black. I don’t think we’re going to see inventory growth from this group. Interest rates… Read more »
The last recession and resulting rate cuts ignited the 2010-2017 super boom.
Prices were fairly flat 2010-2014. The super-boom happened after 2015.
In early 2015 Poloz cut rates due to the oil shock. A real estate boom was predicted;
“Toronto’s million-dollar homes reveal risks of Bank of Canada’s flirtation with lower rates”, Mar 5, 2015
“Booming real estate underscores the risk of combating the oil price shock with cheaper borrowing costs that may only fuel a housing bubble and aggravate indebtedness”
It was mostly caused by dirty money from china.
Except before the stress test there were forecasts regarding the likely impact on the market which have essentially been shown to be correct. Sales started to pick up again once rates dropped and the stress test followed.
Whereas the whole “Chinese did it” meme carries zero predictive power and is backed by zero data. In fact all the people who subscribe to it here are also those with the worst track records for predictions. Coincidence? No, probably not.
The biggest losses in detached the past three years have come from Van West, West Van and Richmond.
Everyone here except for you knows what those three areas have in common.
I’m just kidding, you know as well but you’re a liar.
Oh, now you’re citing the board’s benchmark as a reliable metric? Got it.
Not for actual prices, only for which areas are dropping the fastest.
They do have to keep some semblance of reality after all.
They’re liars except when you think you’ve seen something which supports your immutable view of the universe, in which case they’re a reliable source?
You’re deranged.
And besides, you left Alabama off the list.
You are claiming the benchmark is rigged?
No, do try and keep up.
Yep.
WEST SIDE #VANRE – DETACHED, SALES DOLLAR VOLUME, 12 MONTH MOVING AVERAGE
July 2016 – $627,000,000
July 2019 – $186,000,000
70% DROP
Almost all HAM in 2016.
Almost all locals today.
The very data you clowns begged for says you’re wrong.
“Prices are up 25-30% over the last 3 years.”
Based on REBGV August ’19 stats the 3-year change in Detached is down in most areas, often in the double-digits:.
Area Benchmark Price 3 Year Change
Lower Mainland $1,212,000 -4.30%
Greater Vancouver $1,406,700 -11.00%
Bowen Island $954,800 19.70%
Burnaby East $1,165,800 -7.50%
Burnaby North $1,375,500 -13.90%
Burnaby South $1,467,900 -13.70%
Coquitlam $1,157,100 -5.90%
Ladner $938,800 -9.00%
Maple Ridge $818,200 14.80%
New Westminster $1,033,400 -5.80%
North Vancouver $1,475,200 -13.40%
Pitt Meadows $891,400 13.70%
Port Coquitlam $908,400 -0.40%
Port Moody $1,420,900 2.10%
Richmond $1,458,800 -16.70%
Squamish $996,100 18.70%
Sunshine Coast $584,600 23.00%
Tsawwassen $1,162,900 -6.80%
Vancouver East $1,346,500 -12.10%
Vancouver West $2,880,800 -20.20%
West Vancouver $2,520,100 -26.00%
Whistler $1,640,500 17.80%
Thank you for dispelling the lies our resident bull Dave is spouting…
I’ve been a bear for the last 3 or 4 years here so try to keep up. The bear case is now falling apart for the reasons stated. One other reason to add to the pile is that we’re a long way into this correction already and real estate downturns in YVR have historically been short lived. Prices just don’t keep falling for long periods of time.
The bond market shifted more quickly than the real estate market was able to. I think it’s put a floor on prices now. We might even get a bump now. The next leg down will require an economic downturn.
That’s the bear case. It’s all you have left.
But here is the thing. The top upper stuff is down 30%, in some cases 40%. Before the correction started the spread between a condo and a SFH was X amount. Now with the top end getting trashed the spread between condos and SFH has dropped considerably. People are starting to look at condos and say screw that, I can almost get into a house now. That puts more downward pressure on condo prices as they haven’t caught up to the top end yet as far as declines. You can’t tell me with a straight face that the high end is going to start going up again when the China money has virtually disappeared. Casinos are going bankrupt now due to the vanishing act of Chinese and dirty money. What on earth will bring back the buyers into the insane… Read more »
The bear case was and still is affordability.
Price vs rental income
Price vs income
You say real estate downturns don’t last long here. We have never witnessed a run up anything like what we’ve seen.
We have never had a tidal wave of dirty foreign money.
The past behaviour of this market means nothing to guiding its future behaviour.
I am as bearish as ever.
Can you buy a detached presale? So why would you look at those numbers?
ATTACHED Greater Vancouver prices are up 22% over 3 years and 29% in the Lower Mainland. Those are the numbers that matter. And that’s roughly the GAIN in value people completing today are receiving…. double digits. And then add in their deposit of 20 to 25%, and you can see why they aren’t going to be underwater. The market needs to drop a lot more to force that situation and short of a global recession, it’s not going to happen.
But they also need to qualify for those mortgages. I don’t think some will as they had no intention of buying the thing. Was just a poker chip. Sure they are in the black but they will HAVE to sell as they won’t get approved. So that is going to add inventory. When they bought 3 years ago they could have qualified for a lot more than they can now. So this should start adding inventory.
“I think the correction is over. ”
Did the correction even start? Where is Eby?
Better get buying then. After all you are a ‘serious real estate investor’
Buying to put a roof over our heads. Can’t have our kids being homeless.
“Buy or be homeless”.
Is that the slogan you’re using on your bus/bench ads now? Desperate times….
“Prices are up 25-30% over the last 3 years”
Condos are up 22% from 3 years ago, detached is down 11%
Combined, the market is up 4.6% from 3 years ago and that number shrinks every month.
If the bear case hinges on a global recession then bond yields and numbers from china are signalling the bear case is the best case.
Your just focussing on Vancouver proper. Include Fraser valley. Prices there never really corrected.
I won’t go so far as to say it’s the most likely case, but there is a high probability of a recession. I think it’s overdue and the bond market is signalling a slowdown. Unemployment is at historic lows and that doesn’t stay there long. But you also can’t ignore that the bond market is saying the recession is still 2 years out. You also can’t ignore that the central banks are acting quickly to loosen up money whereas historically they have been slow to act because they believed the hype at those times. But since the Great Recession, central banks are terrified of a downturn so now they act earlier and stronger than ever before. We also have the largest generation in history entering their prime spending years. Maybe the consumer market stays strong. We’re in unprecedented times. This… Read more »
“Home prices continue to fall in Vancouver area, sales up from last year”, CTV News
https://bc.ctvnews.ca/home-prices-continue-to-fall-in-vancouver-area-sales-up-from-last-year-1.4577525
“The benchmark price for 706 detached homes sold in August was $1.4 million, down 9.8 per cent from the same month last year.”
” The benchmark price (for apartments) fell 7.4 per cent from August 2018 to $771,000″
“The price declines came as the total number of homes listed for sale in August rose 13.3 per cent from a year earlier, to 13,396.”
So the sellers are finally capitulating and lowering their prices…. the stalemate may be over.
Stalemate? Prices have been falling for 15 months. Where have you been?
Where have I been? Watching stuff not sell, that’s where.
Hong Kong leader to announce withdrawal of extradition bill: media report
But still all those HK’ers will be flooding the Vancouver realestate market. This like EVERYTHING else’s bullish news…
if you had 90% of your savings in HK what would you do with it right now?
I would get it out… easy enough to wire out anywhere in the world…
exactly. months of protests and china trying to get their claws on all your shit isn’t good for HK’s economy even if china backs down.
not as much money and people will leave as would have if the fight was still ongoing or the law passed.
agreed…. that said, I wouldn’t be in a huge panic to buy YVR realestate…..
You’ve never wired money before, have you?
BREAKING NEWS – carrie lam(b) HAS NOT FORMALLY WITHDRAWN THE EXTRADITION BILL. Her statement says she will propose withdrawing the bill at the next LegCo meeting after October 1st. She is as slippery as her boss. Remember, xi has a majority of votes bought in the LegCo
In 1997, 45% of Hong Kongers identified as chinese.
22 years after the British handed over the territory, it’s down to 10%.
I identify them as Chinese.
their own brethren don’t want to be associated with them and for decades we were trying to cozy up to them. i hope we’ve learned our lesson.
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Guessing a lot of these are re-lists?
Sept should be interesting. I predict we’ll crack 16K by the end of Oct with an outside chance of 17k
B.C. investing $1.3B in redevelopment of Burnaby Hospital
https://www.citynews1130.com/2019/09/03/b-c-investing-1-3b-in-redevelopment-of-burnaby-hospital/
the BC Liberals did nothing for this hospital for decades, meanwhile pumping real estate and enriching their supporters and friends, and allowing criminal activity to run rampant throughout BC.
more great work by the BC NDP.
people love the BC NDP.
They have done nothing yet but promised to start something that will break ground when they are no longer be in government and the BC Liberals will have to budget for.
BC NDP will win a majority next election.
People love the BC NDP.
Love the NDP?
No, they just hate them less than the Libcreds which is so easy to do.
Political parties are a cancer on democracy.
Neighbours say they’ve had it with neglected property in one of Vancouver’s wealthiest neighbourhoods.
Chineexe behaving badly …
I was pretty sure the city was within their right at some point to clean up the property and give the owners the bill. Perhaps that will happen eventually? If the liens keep piling up maybe these a-hole owners would take notice.
the city is pithing their rights to do that… sadly they don’t… I guess that would be “racist” if they actually enforced rules
Making stuff up sure is fun, isn’t it?
Spouting the same line 100 times sure is fun, isn’t it parrot?
You must even bore yourself most of the time with your squawking.
The penalties for this are still to low, even though they were zero a short time ago.
Empty homes taxes need to go through the roof, at least 1% per month of the house value and after a year of this bullshit the house is confiscated and if the owner is not a citizen they are banned for life.
Another accurate prediction by Oracle.
A year ago, I told you guys that the federal NDP leader was brought into destroy the NDP and help Trudeau out.
Looks what’s happening.
Trudeau may just get his majority now.
“Another accurate prediction by Oracle. ”
thanks for the comic relief …
So how does this prove that this was the reason why he was brought in?
Of course it is not the reason. NDPers are just plain dumb.
I think the lame duck of an opponent, Andrew Scheer, is all the help the Liberals will need.
Here’s another major price drop:
MLS® Number: R2394876
$835,000
8061 WILTSHIRE PLACE
Delta, British Columbia V4C6T1
Apr 5:$1,058,000
Aug 7: $835,000
Change: – 223000.00 -21%
Sold Sep 11, 2017 $958,000
2019 assessment as of July 1, 2018 $835,000
This from Flip Flops:
WEST SIDE #VANRE – DETACHED, SALES DOLLAR VOLUME, 12 MONTH MOVING AVERAGE
July 2016 – $627,000,000
July 2019 – $186,000,000
70% DROP!
11
23
96
Vancouver Real Estate Flip Flops
·
Aug 30
So… no knew Chinese monopoly money coming and every other Chinese speculator in West Side #Vanre desperate to dump their real estate… fall market should be AWESOME.
If anyone still questions what drove #Vanre prices parabolic, they are about to be schooled.
Rush to the exits incoming.
Actually with the low dollar volume it is the opposite of a rush to the exits.
Labour day classic, Hamilton vs Toronto and Edmonton vs Calgary.
Hamilton, steel town defeats Toronto, the Argonauts with the worst record in the East, paired with the Lions, worst record in the West.
A few minutes before signing off on the Stampeders/Eskimo game, the network pans McMahon stadium, and what is all that Green doing there? Shouldn’t Calgary be brown this time of year? Strange weather, I’m sure it will revert back to normal soon, and I can turn off my sprinkler and irrigation system.
Hong Kong revolution inverse Cultural revolution. This is a basic pattern, that even select quotes of Mao are being heard again. What is weird, is that a 16-20 year old red guard is sitting around the living room watching it all on television, coaching the sides, putting a brake and acceleration on PROC leadership.
The brake is Saturn, the acceleration is Jupiter. Jupiter orbits faster than Saturn, and conjoins in the near future. So you have only a few weeks to hybridize the whole thing, as balance between these two energies are quite good now. If an agreement is struck, it should be honoured, with a nod to the Father culture.
Are you a student? What is the Correlation between BC Lions Season record and BC Housing percentage change?
