Friday free-for-all! September 20th 2019

It’s that time of the week again. Friday free-for-all time!

It’s another open topic discussion thread for the weekend.

So what are you seeing out there?

Post your news links, thoughts and anecdotes in the comments below and have an excellent weekend!

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[…] –52 years to save up for a down payment–Avalanche of Apt Buildings hitting metro–Don’t pay till you die–The 9 lives of the Canadian housing market–Politicians want you to buy– […]

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[…] Southseacompany points out that the economist Robert Schiller has some thoughts on the economy and a bit of history repeating: […]

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

Home Capital Group Inc. plans to issue residential mortgage-backed securities regularly, a sign that Bank of Canada efforts to jump start the market are catching on
https://business.financialpost.com/real-estate/mortgages/home-capital-gives-canadas-mortgage-backed-market-a-boost

southseacompany
Member
southseacompany

“The Liberal and Conservative home-ownership plans will only heat up Canada’s hot housing markets”, Globe & Mail

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/editorials/article-the-liberal-and-conservative-home-ownership-plans-will-only-heat-up/

“Both policies would create more buyers, with more money to spend. That would increase demand, which would in turn raise home prices. No wonder the financial and the real estate industries are applauding the proposals.”

“But the last thing Canada’s big cities need is for hot housing markets to get even hotter, and the last thing Canada’s economy needs is for people to pile up more personal debt. “

southseacompany
Member
southseacompany
FULL: Canadian federal politicians know only two things about housing: that it’s too expensive in many parts of the country, and that voters wish it wasn’t. The politicians aren’t wrong. According to Statistics Canada, one in four households spends more than 30 per cent of its annual income on shelter and related costs, such as utilities, fees and taxes – an amount the Canadian Housing and Mortgage Corporation (CHMC) considers “not affordable.” In the Toronto and Vancouver census metropolitan areas, the squeeze is even tighter. In those places, home to almost a quarter of all Canadians, a third of the households are above the “not affordable” benchmark. That’s a lot of voters looking for relief, and that’s what the parties are pitching in this election campaign. But that relief is mostly a set of quick-fix policies geared toward one thing:… Read more »
YVR
Guest
YVR

Sounds like the bears have given up any hope on the NDP doing what they said they are going to do with housing. Anyone miss Harper, Christy and the NPA? Remember the good old days when housing prices were about half where they are now. Now with blackface, Horgan and the NDP led Vancouver council prices and rents are at all time highs. Sad what has happened. Unless you run an Airbnb then you are doing great. Thanks Carol James!

Where is Eby? Is he still fixing ICBC now with the highest rates in Canada combined with less coverage for those higher rates.

Bestplaceonearth
Guest
Bestplaceonearth

It’s a terrible situation bears have put themselves in. They pray to these politicians to save their arses – they blame the externals for their misfortunes – but they don’t know how to accept their own failures for being inaction. Posting links are what bears do best.
It’s still not too late; interest rate is low, the market is in the corrective mode – there is still plenty of inventory to choose from.
Quit moaning, put your finance in order, and go talk to a mortgage broker and a realtor; their service is free, and they don’t bite.

patriotz
Member

” Now with blackface, Horgan and the NDP led Vancouver council prices and rents are at all time highs. ”

You know perfectly well that metro Vancouver prices have been falling for over a year. Teranet, the last index to peak, did so in July 2018 and is now at its lowest point since August 2017. In the City of Vancouver there have been repeat sales with losses over $1million documented on this forum. There have also been documented repeat sales at a loss with previous sale in 2017.

YVR
Guest
YVR

Yes Patriditz, housing made all time highs a year ago when blackface, Horgan and the NDP led Vancouver council were in power. But since then rents are making new all time highs and anything under $2 million is flat at best.

Bestplaceonearth
Guest
Bestplaceonearth

With $million less, I supposed bears can afford those high end stuff? Why don’t you try the entry level property!

Best place on meth
Member
Best place on meth

“Anyone miss Harper, Christy and the NPA?”

FUCK NO!

Dave
Member

I miss Harper. I thought he was a good PM. He wouldn’t have embarrassed Canada the way Trudeau has done, if he had been giving another term. He would have dealt more swiftly with China holding Canadian hostages.

Best place on meth
Member
Best place on meth

Conservatives starting to open up a lead on Prime Minister blackface.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2019_Canadian_federal_election

Dave
Member
I think polls have a lot less meaning today than they used to. I think you generally need to add about 2 points to the numbers for any Conservative because time and time again, the polls underestimate right leaning parties. I think polls are a way for people to express displeasure with a party, but it doesn’t follow they’ll end up voting that way. So some people will say they aren’t voting for Trudeau for the next couple weeks, but deep down, they intend to. I expect the Liberals will get a bounce for that reason towards the end of the campaign. Jagmeet really needs to step it up over the next couple weeks and get his name and face out there. He’ll steal Liberal votes if he does that. I think he’s a likeable guy and a lot of… Read more »
southseacompany
Member
southseacompany

“Politicians should keep their hands off stress tests for first-time home buyers”, Globe & Mail

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/investing/personal-finance/article-politicians-should-keep-their-hands-off-stress-tests-for-first-time/

“Go too far in helping people afford to buy a home and you put the whole economy at risk. The federal Conservatives are walking this fine line with election promises made Monday to help young home buyer”

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

Buy with minimum downpayment. Have assets overseas. If prices crash, canada can’t touch the overseas assets.

Many immigrants will simply ride out the depression in their home countries. The locals? Fucked!

Doomcouver
Member
Doomcouver

That might work if the economy in China doesn’t tank at the same time. Thanks to the trade war it seems increasingly likely that it will. Don’t underestimate how global the credit binge is.

southseacompany
Member
southseacompany
FULL: Go too far in helping people afford to buy a home and you put the whole economy at risk. The federal Conservatives are walking this fine line with election promises made Monday to help young home buyers. The Conservatives have an idea to improve home-buying affordability that makes some sense: If elected, they would extend the maximum amortization to 30 years from the current limit of 25 for loans with a down payment of less than 20 per cent. You can already go 30 years if you put 20 per cent down. Alone, the move to 30-year amortizations for all would make payments more affordable on a monthly basis and sync better with our longer tenures in the work force and longer lifespans. But, apparently, this isn’t enough help for the ever-needy housing sector. The Conservatives also said they… Read more »
southseacompany
Member
southseacompany

To be fair, Carrick also mentions the Housing Turd-flation Plan, the one where our tax dollars are invested in the housing bubble.

southseacompany
Member
southseacompany

More negative press on the Housing Scheer-flation proposal;

“Scheer stress test ‘fix’ welcomed by housing sector, but impact to high household debt a concern”, CTV

https://election.ctvnews.ca/scheer-stress-test-fix-welcomed-by-housing-sector-but-impact-to-high-household-debt-a-concern-1.4606500

“The housing industry welcomed Conservative Leader Andrew Scheer’s proposal to fix Canada’s mortgage stress test to make home ownership more accessible, but Canada’s housing agency and bank regulator have previously defended the stress test as necessary measures to ensure economic and financial stability.”

paulb
Member
southseacompany
Member
southseacompany

“Tory stress-test plan could lift home prices”, Mississauga.Com

https://www.mississauga.com/news-story/9610861-tory-stress-test-plan-could-lift-home-prices/

“Conservative leader Andrew Scheer’s pledge to extend mortgage amortization maximums for some homebuyers and loosen a contentious stress test would likely lead to more debt and higher property prices, some experts say.

“Oh my god, here we go again,” said Tsur Somerville, a professor at the Sauder School of Business at the University of British Columbia, when he heard Andrew Scheer’s announcement Monday.”

Boombust
Guest
Boombust

That dunce, Scheer should be made aware that it is OSFI who calls the shots.

patriotz
Member

OSFI does not limit amortizations to 25 years. That’s a rule for CMHC (etc.) insured mortgages which the government can change at will. Uninsured mortgages can be longer, today.

http://www.osfi-bsif.gc.ca/eng/fi-if/rg-ro/gdn-ort/gl-ld/Pages/b20-nfo.aspx

southseacompany
Member
southseacompany

“John Ivison: If you cherish a stable Canadian housing market, beware politicians shopping for votes”, National Post

https://nationalpost.com/news/politics/election-2019/john-ivison-if-you-cherish-a-stable-canadian-housing-market-beware-politicians-shopping-for-votes

“The parties are trading trivialities, but messing around with the housing market is fraught with the possibility for unintended consequences”

Just Thinking
Guest
Just Thinking

https://www.citynews1130.com/2019/09/23/the-latest-murder-trial-against-real-estate-heiress-begins/

REDWOOD CITY, Calif. — The Latest on the trial of a Chinese real estate heiress charged with murdering her children’s father…

Just Thinking
Guest
Just Thinking

Scheer has also promised an inquiry into money laundering in real estate. I believe Scheer also says the Conservatives will look at surplus federal land for housing development

yes we need yet another useless “inquiry” that costs millions and accomplishes nothing …

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

Listings earmarked as cannabis retail locations are available in MLS systems throughout the province of British Columbia for the first time since federal legalization came into force last year
https://vancouversun.com/cannabis-business/commercial-property-listings-for-cannabis-retail-go-live-amid-struggling-b-c-legal-market/wcm/e4098537-1ad1-4365-9a8e-f863184d890e

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29
Just thinking
Guest
Just thinking

Both major political parties are now pumping real estate so we have no hope.

Doomcouver
Member
Doomcouver

Housing prices will correct regardless of what politicians do to keep pumping them up. They’re just making the inevitable collapse worse.

Just Thinking
Guest
Just Thinking

True, and this is the scary part, when someone buys at these levels they are so exposed to the downside and could be wiped out in a crash.

Bestplaceonearth
Guest
Bestplaceonearth

You bears always live in fear; and blame others! That is a problem. I told bears, give PaulB a call, he will change your life. Don’t hide in mama basement anymore, it’s no longer comfortable.
Aren’t you getting tired of saying “and this is the scary part, when someone buys at these levels they are so exposed to the downside and could be wiped out in a crash ” for the past 20 years?

Just Thinking
Guest
Just Thinking

maybe someone might actually listen to you if you weren’t such a goof.

Bestplaceonearth
Guest
Bestplaceonearth

The truth hurts!

Doomcouver
Member
Doomcouver

You know what actually hurts? Baseless claims meant to pump RE prices.

Bestplaceonearth
Guest
Bestplaceonearth

You are just clueless. You think a few anonymous posts can actually pump RE? Get out of mama basement and see the world.

Bestplaceonearth
Guest
Bestplaceonearth

Ms Swanson will give you a modular housing for free courtesy of the Vancouver taxpayers…Be patient!

Just thinking
Guest
Just thinking

https://www.citynews1130.com/2019/09/23/unsung-hero-11-year-old-raises-thousands-for-charity-and-never-asks-for-anything-back/

we never see Asians “giving back” unless it’s to their own or for their own advantage.

Bestplaceonearth
Guest
Bestplaceonearth

You don’t get out much, do you! This kinda shallow thinking keeps you in your mama basement for the past 20 years.

Just Thinking
Guest
Just Thinking

Troll Alert ! Troll Alert!

Bestplaceonearth
Guest
Bestplaceonearth

Amazing! 20 years and never grow up!

Just thinking
Guest
Just thinking

R U taking over from SIDA ?

Just thinking
Guest
Just thinking
Just thinking
Guest
Just thinking

https://www.citynews1130.com/2019/09/23/us-universities-see-decline-in-students-from-china/

University of Vermont, which saw a 23% decline in Chinese student enrollment,
University of Nebraska-Lincoln, which had a 20% decrease.

China sends more students to study in the U.S. than any other country. Its 363,000 students represent one-third of all international students. But the numbers have leveled off in recent years, reflecting a trend among international students overall.

the trend is our friend …

Best place on meth
Member
Best place on meth

RIP VCI

It was a great blog for many years, but it’s just too unreliable now.

SIDA got his wish.

Bestplaceonearth
Guest
Bestplaceonearth

Dont quit! You have Jean Swanson and the NDP on your side. Mama basement is not that bad! Come on!

I\'m thinking
Guest
I\'m thinking

Here comes the troll …

Doomcouver
Member
Doomcouver

Well, you’ve heard the Keynes quote “Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.”. Perhaps our housing market will remain irrational longer than this blog can remain running. Bear fatigue is real.

Just thinking
Guest
Just thinking

It’s been almost 20 years now since this show got started, and many people have thrown in the towel . How long are we going to wait for a collapse; people just want to get on with their lives and don’t want to buy a house when they are senior citizens. I do think we are in the new normal.

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

Its record immigration behind this boom. But even the bears ridicule me. Take demand out and prices would crash.

DaMann
Member
DaMann

As a long time bear I agree. Conservatives have now announced removing the stress tests and making amortizations longer again. All this to prop up a market that hasn’t even crashed yet. If they are acting like this when prices have barely fallen what would they do if we were actually in a crash? Buy everyone a house?This market is never going to crash. High end hair cuts sure but the stuff that people can actually buy hasn’t budged. I’m done waiting and have given up too.

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

Liberals would increase immigration. Same effect.

Advice: help out the PPC.

Doomcouver
Member
Doomcouver

You’re missing the broader context. Globalization has integrated the Canadian economy and housing market with the entire world. A nasty global recession is coming, and when that happens it won’t matter what any of the politicians or central bankers try; the house of cards is coming down regardless. Add to that the boomer house-rich cash-poor sell-off hasn’t really happened yet, and the rush to the exits could easily be sparked by an economic downturn, or a boomer die-off in another decade or two.

I am extremely sick and tired of how overpriced our housing market is, but I refuse to roll over and pay these prices. I’ve personally resigned myself to moving away if rents start to be as expensive as purchase prices are. That was always the plan B.

Bestplaceonearth
Guest
Bestplaceonearth

Look like plan B is the plan. Need moving boxes? Don’t you all just wish that you have listened to the bulls sooner!

Doomcouver
Member
Doomcouver

Actually no. Rents are still ridiculously under-priced against ownership prices, so I think i’ll be sticking around for a while. Besides, you should probably hold onto those moving boxes. You might need a place to sleep when the market tanks and the bank repossesses your house.

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

For whites, moving out of here would be the best option.

Fraser valley will become India so I’m staying put!

you’re probably Chinese so you’re north of the fraser im guessing.

DaMann
Member
DaMann

The new norm is using basement suits, airbnb or living dozens in a house. it’s the only way anyone can afford anything. Vancouver is a wasteland now

southseacompany
Member
southseacompany

“Lower rates giving Canadian housing ‘nine lives’: CIBC’s Tal”, BNN Bloomberg

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/lower-rates-giving-canada-s-housing-market-nine-lives-cibc-s-tal-1.1319445

“Benjamin Tal, deputy chief economist of CIBC Capital Markets, says global and domestic developments that have led to lower interest rates have continually buoyed Canadian housing at times when it was poised to soften.”

““The housing market has nine lives. Every time it’s supposed to slow down, something bad happens elsewhere that keeps interest rates low and the party’s still going,” Tal told BNN Bloomberg in a Friday interview.”

Doomcouver
Member
Doomcouver

I’d go one further and say sustained low rates are giving Canada the largest asset bubble in our history.

southseacompany
Member
southseacompany

“Canada has taken a perilous road to an asset-based economy”, Globe & Mail
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/commentary/article-canada-has-taken-a-perilous-road-to-an-asset-based-economy/

” Canada has become an asset-based economy in which it’s now a viable choice to buy a house far above your income threshold and sit tight – renting out rooms to pay the mortgage you can’t afford on your own income alone – waiting for its value to appreciate.”

“It’s almost impossible to transition the economy away from an asset-based logic, since to do so would destroy the wealth of millions and the futures built on the expectation of ever-rising asset values.”

“The current asset-based economy requires us all to protect asset values at almost any cost, so expect to see a range of policies this time next year designed to prop up a faltering housing market.”

Doomcouver
Member
Doomcouver

It just makes the crash bigger. The economy’s been plodding along because of hot RE almost exclusively, and we’ve been slowly kicking out the supports of non-RE related industry. Now there’s no telling how low housing could go. I don’t even want to guess anymore, just going to cringe really hard when the next recession hits.

southseacompany
Member
southseacompany
FULL: Kean Birch is an associate professor in the department of geography at York University. I predict that Canada’s housing market will crash next year, or in 2021 at the latest. A bold claim, you might think. But if we look at housing booms in the past, each lasted around 10 years and we’re reaching that boom end point in the next year or so. Canada largely survived the 2008-09 housing crash unscathed, which seemed – and still seems – like a good thing until you realize it just means this country has had another 10 years to embed housing assets at the heart of its economy. And this is a major problem. It means people are more in debt than before, with the Canadian household debt-to-income ratio topping 170 per cent in 2018 – and this ratio is more… Read more »
Big Bear
Guest
Big Bear

How many more Liberal MPs have been compromised? : https://thebreaker.news/news/peschisolido-prc/

southseacompany
Member
southseacompany

“Rising home prices encourage consumers to borrow and spend, giving economy a boost”, CBC

https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/home-price-heloc-spending-1.5291558

“As Canadian home prices rose from 2014 to 2017, many households tapped the growing value in their homes for other spending, according to study by Bank of Canada economists.”

“About two million households used home equity lines of credit (HELOCs), but another 380,000 got mortgage financing to raise equity, taking advantage of interest rates that fell in 2015, the researchers say in an analysis released Friday.”

southseacompany
Member
southseacompany

“Nobel-winning economist Robert Shiller: We’re ‘sneaking back into the old 2006 mentality’”, Yahoo Finance

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/economist-robert-shiller-were-sneaking-back-into-the-old-2006-mentality-134537232.html

“With the U.S. economy continuing its longest expansion in history, Nobel prize-winning economist Robert Shiller can’t help but notice certain similarities in America’s housing sector to the run-up just before the Great Recession.”

“While the run up in home prices hasn’t been as astronomical as the lead up to the Great Recession, interestingly Shiller says Americans are slowly returning to looking at housing as a speculative investment just as they were before the crisis.”

paulb
Member

New
135
Price Change
67
Sold
104
TI: 14382

MTD
Listings 3623
Sales 1618

http://www.clivestevepaul.com
http://www.instagram.com/clivestevepaul

LazyCanadian
Member
LazyCanadian

Hi Paul,
Where can I get these numbers without this site? It’s become unreliable lately and has been overrun with extreme personalities for quite a while.

Boombust
Guest
Boombust

Try the “Metro Vancouver Housing Collapse” Facebook site; it now has 7,634 members.

Bestplaceonearth
Guest
Bestplaceonearth

I am guessing it’s Bill the basement dweller?

I\'m thinking
Guest
I\'m thinking

Instead of doing your own research you just ask someone else… yes you are a “LazyCanadian”