opinion, predictions

Schiller: That old 2006 mentality

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Southseacompany points out that the economist Robert Schiller has some thoughts on the economy and a bit of history repeating:

“Housing is driven by narratives. Before 2007, the narrative was flipping houses [and the belief that] home prices have always gone up,” the Yale economist said during an interview with Yahoo Finance’s YFi PM. “Then, after the Great Recession, it was tragic narratives about people who lost their home, or dangers of borrowing too much or lending too much. It’s been 10 years since the crisis. Now, those narratives are starting to be forgotten.”

Read the full article here.

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[…] –52 years to save up for a down payment–Avalanche of Apt Buildings hitting metro–Don’t pay till you die–The 9 lives of the Canadian housing market–Politicians want you to buy– […]

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Shit It Down Already (original)

NDP sure quiet…WTF are they doing ?
Where are the Greens?

Seems their strategy=(?) aka do some good things early on…like cancelling tolls on bridges..then the usual of ill -conceived short- term policies that often exacerbate the issues of concern. They appear to be coasting now….hoping the public is asleep.

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Werner Stein

“The NDP hasn’t kept all of its promises. To date, it hasn’t followed through with an annual $400 renters’ refund.”

That was just a vote pandering slogan, which was never intended to be implemented. It’s obvious to anyone with in IQ above imbecile, that the $400 would quickly find its way to the pockets of landlords.

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YVR

According to Patriditz before the election this was the NDPs biggest promise on housing because it would expose all the tax evading landlords. Of course most of the NDP promises were vote pandering and never intended to be implemented.

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Bestplaceonearth

The NDP has not followed through with the $400 renters allowance; they are still studying it, as they are studying of any issues. The best they have done, is the wealth tax! They are very good at creating new taxes.

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bullwhip29

not exactly. implementation of renter’s rebate would have resulted in a whole slew of unintended consequences (for landlords) that would have far exceeded the $400 threshold. caught up in the net would have been those failing to declare rental income not to mention a much larger issue with respect to abuse of the capital gains exemption on principal residences. i would also imagine there would be numerous examples of landlords operating in contravention to all sorts of other bylaws and regulations. as if this wasn’t complicated enough, all of this would surely have resulted in decreasing the available rental stock (whether legal or not) and made life more difficult for 1000’s of ordinary, hard working British Columbians who are just trying to stay afloat on a month to month basis. i don’t know if they ever intended on implementing this… Read more »

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bullwhip29

Wenxue Wang, a “businessman” from China, who made $6.67M flipping Burnaby lowrises ordered to pay realtor $1.15M
https://www.vancourier.com/man-who-made-6-67m-flipping-burnaby-lowrises-ordered-to-pay-realtor-1-15m-1.23960422

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Just thinking

“Putting himself forward as a Chinese newcomer who could not understand, read or speak English, he claimed the Zhaos had breached their fiduciary duty and taken advantage of him, getting him to sign the bonus agreement under false pretences.”

there’s always this same excuse “no speak engrish” these people are unbelievable. Just a bunch of parasite opportunists we don’t need these types in Canada they do nothing for our country.

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Shut It Down Already (original)

Hush now, supremacist fuck.

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YVR

Sounds like you feel inferior.

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YVR

The upside and downside of B.C. NDP government housing policies

“It’s true that prices have fallen for the most expensive homes in the Lower Mainland.But the NDP’s tax policies have shifted demand to lower-priced properties. In the Champlain Heights area of East Vancouver, that contributed to a 16.1 percent increase in the price of condos in July over the same month in 2017. Collingwood condo prices are up 14.1 percent whereas Fraserview condos rose 19.5 percent on a year-over-year basis. These are in more affordable areas of Vancouver. ”

https://www.straight.com/news/1118586/upside-and-downside-bc-ndp-government-housing-policies

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YVR

The NDP pledged in 2017 that young families would “have real prospects of affording their first home”. But for buyers on the East Side, home ownership has definitely not become more affordable.

Single-family home prices are crashing in posh West Side neighbourhoods like Dunbar and Point Grey.

But condo prices have risen on a year-over-year basis in every West Side neighbourhood. Again, it’s a sign of shifting demand patterns. The “benchmark” annual increase of a West Side condo was 6.6 percent by the end of July over the same month of 2017, according to the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver. In the most affordable West Side neighbourhood—Marpole—benchmark condo prices were up 10.6 percent,

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YVR

The NDP promised more affordable housing. But one year into the Horgan government, it appears to have delivered more affordable home ownership only for those in the market for mansions on the West Side of Vancouver and in West Vancouver.

The NDP hasn’t kept all of its promises. To date, it hasn’t followed through with an annual $400 renters’ refund.

Over 10 years, Premier John Horgan pledged to build 114,000 affordable rental, nonprofit, co-op, and owner-purchase housing units through partnerships. But as of today, the numbers don’t add up. Either the government backs off its pledge to spend $6.6 billion over the next decade on affordability measures or it starts running large deficits.

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YVR

Right now, it’s clear that the status quo isn’t going to cut it. Not politically and not economically. Surely, Horgan’s intelligent enough to realize that by now.

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Just thinking

That article is over a year old. Prices are down now. Nice try though …

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YVR

“Collingwood condo prices are up 14.1 percent whereas Fraserview condos rose 19.5 percent on a year-over-year basis.”

Show us your data then. Prices are still higher today than when the NDP took power for 95% of the housing stock. And even worse rents are up by 20% to 30%.

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Just thinking

You are making the claims so the burden of proof is on you.
Get to work.

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YVR

I posted the data. Things are worse now.

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Bestplaceonearth

Fact is that you have not been able to move out of mama basement yet. Isn’t that good enough proof?

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Werner Stein

What a sad state of affairs when using Coleman as a reference point.
Yes, the NDP has done more for tenants than the hillbillies, but that is hardly any cause for commendation.
I don’t come from the same place as some of the NDP bashers on this blog, but I do think the NDP has been a failure when it comes to housing.
I still hold to my theory that had the previous government remained in power, they would have continued to stoke the market, and by now it would have burnt out.
This timid gradual approach, only serves to keep it going, perhaps not at a boiling point, but at a long long drawn out simmer.

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xhistory

The housing price pattern in Canada is different than the USA because of a military structure difference, or rather, the response was different to military/political change. Which has a lot to do with geographic size and population ratio. We had a military with a more profound effect on family structure. And that got curtailed in Feb 2018, Here’s a good story that illustrates the set up My family from Ontario, positioned near the border within rabbit ear distance to three American tv networks in Buffalo, we received the full brunt of the JFK media sponsored assassination. Resulting in a change in our family dynamic. My mother’s next child wouldn’t be born for another 6 years. Alternatively, in those areas outside the reach of American telly networks, families would continue to grow. Until Feb 1968, and the de-structurization of the army,… Read more »

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Shit It Down Already (original)

From Bullwhip earlier.. Avalanche of apartment buildings hitting Metro market Way to go NDP……..your grasp of reality is on par with a baby with a nail gun. I am off to see a buddy who benefits from the rental rate freeze..as a long term tenant….. .he lives in Kits apartment built circa 1960’s and pays around 60 % of what the place would rent for if he left… I know of another party in Victoria who is in same “fortunate” boat..a long term tenant who benefits from same laws. Gee..NDP…your traditional supporters ie unions..would they accept freeze on wages ? ….please explain what is the difference. Since Dave Barrett and his commie class -warfare clique and Rentalsman …landlord are both demonized and forced to subsidize rents when perhaps Gov’ts should take more initiative and not force the private sector to… Read more »

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YVR

“I am off to see a buddy who benefits from the rental rate freeze..as a long term tenant….. .he lives in Kits apartment built circa 1960’s and pays around 60 % of what the place would rent for if he left…”

In the end the rental rate limit may the what gets him evicted. The landlords are not going to sit there and take 60% of market with no chance of increasing rent to catch up. The guy will get evicted on some technicality, a renoviction, the building will be sold or something will happen to get him out. Your buddy would be better off paying the extra 2% every year to keep his place.

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Shit It Down Already (original)

Re 2008 versus now..

People seem to forget the US Gov’t sat back and let the market tank..then bailed out the banks to the tune of billions and let homeowners take the hit go broke..whereas Canada did the opposite and reduced interest rates to head off the bloodbath.

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Just thinking

The end of the Chinese miracle:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t487ILVf87k

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xhistory

All the perplexities, confusion and distress on the planet arise, not from defects in man, not from want of honor or virtue, so much as from the downright ignorance of the nature of the circling cosmos.
-xhistory

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Best place on meth

I’ve been hearing that chinese are now net sellers of Vancouver real estate. They’re taking the proceeds back home.

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Shut It Down Already (original)

Who are they selling to, genius?

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paulb

New
121
Price Change
45
Sold
93
TI: 14384

Month to date
Listings 4716
Sales 2218

http://www.clivestevepaul.com
http://www.instagram.com/clivestevepaul

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Shut It Down Already (original)

20K party!

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southseacompany

“How long to save up for down payment in Vancouver? One study says 52 years’, Rimbey Review

https://www.rimbeyreview.com/business/how-long-to-save-up-for-down-payment-in-vancouver-one-study-says-52-years/

“Calculations released by real estate agency Zoocasa on Thursday found that median-income households earning $72,662 in the region, where the benchmark home price costs $993,300, would qualify for a mortgage of only $241,994 This would leave a shortfall of $751,306, necessitating a hefty down payment with a savings timeline that spans decades..”

“Overall, the study found median-income earners would not be able to afford homes in about half of Canada’s major housing markets.”

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No Shill

That’s why prices keep coming down, It’s not rocket science.

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Best place on meth

Remove the chinese and you get a slow drip, drip, drip downwards.

This should become a much faster drip when we replay 2008, but with twice the global debt levels.

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bullwhip29

Avalanche of apartment buildings hitting Metro market
https://biv.com/article/2019/09/avalanche-apartment-buildings-hitting-metro-market

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Best place on meth

Thanks NDP!

We’re now seeing real progress in this province after 16 years of corrupt government.

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YVR

How is it helpful? Most of these apartments will be purchased and the current long term tenants evicted. These are selling for 2.5% cap rates. The only way someone will buy it will be to turn it into something that can generate higher revenue.

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YVR

Thanks NDP!

“Major renovation planned for West End apartment tower, tenants facing eviction”

https://urbanyvr.com/major-renovation-planned-for-west-end-apartment-tower-tenants-facing-eviction

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Just thinking

I don’t see what your point is here… this building is 60 years old and needs almost a complete rebuild. The tenants were offered $10,000 compensation allowances and right of first refusal to move back in.

This has nothing to do with the NDP and in fact, thanks to the new NDP rental rules these tenants are being treated more fairly and generously than they would have been under the BC Libs.

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YVR

You should tell that to the tenants who are getting evicted. They certainly don’t feel that way. They get right f first refusal at the new market rents which will be triple what they pay now. So they get $10k, have to move for a year, pay higher rent for the year in a temporary place, then move back and pay triple rent. Thanks NDP that is awesome! These tenants are so stupid not to realize how awesome this is. Lets hope all those getting evicted from long term rentals with low rent because of theses new sales realize how lucky they are.

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Just thinking

How do you know how they feel? I doubt you have talked to any of them. The article says some have already accepted the $10K compensation offer. Sure some don’t want to move (as also was stated in the article) however, under the circumstances, they are being treated more than fairly and certainly better than they would have been treated under the BC Libs.

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Best place on meth

Coleman would have thrown them under the bus while simultaneously insulting them.

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YVR

Did Rich Coleman hold a press conference every week like Eby complaining how poor the housing situation was? Now the housing situation is worse under the NDP and the NDP have no plan and Eby is in hiding. All indications are it will get worse. Housing is a disaster under the NDP. Could they have done worse if they tried?

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Just thinking

YVR you need to just give up on this. Those tenants are not being treated unfairly at all. Under the BC Libs they would be out on the street without any compensation.

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YVR

“How do you know how they feel?”

Can you read?

Residents of the Berkeley Tower at 1770 Davie Street will rally Wednesday to protest what they are calling unfair evictions by the building’s owner, Reliance Properties.

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Just thinking

Can you read this:
“Reliance says several tenants have already accepted the compensation package.”

I’m sure some don’t want to move, but they are still being offered 5 figures to do so and that’s not chicken food.

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YVR

Legally they had no choice but to “accept” the offer. Those are the laws the NDP have in place. The people that got 10K had lived there for over 40 years. Even Reliance realized how inadequate the CoV compensation and increased it. The NDP have failed.

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YVR

“they are being treated more than fairly and certainly better than they would have been treated under the BC Libs.”

The compensation has nothing to do with the NDP. It was voluntary. Just admit the NDP have failed on housing.

The building’s tenants were served with eviction notices in June, and were offered compensation by Reliance, at an average of $10,000 per unit. Reliance says the compensation is nearly double what is required by the provincial government.

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Just thinking

Under the BC Libs they would have got NOTHING.

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YVR

False. The NDP have done nothing. It is the CoV who requires the compensation.

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Just Thinking

“Compensation was double that required by the provincial government ”
That’s not the CoV.

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YVR

Which was in place under the BC Liberals. Remember Eby promised legislation to stop renovictions. He lied.

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patriotz

I don’t recall you advocating before the election that tenants should never have to move because of renovations. In fact I don’t recall you advocating any of the things that you criticize the NDP for not doing.

I do remember you enthusiastically supporting Christy Clark and the BC Liberals.

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YVR

Nice diversion. Do you support renovations and think it is a good thing these apartments are being sold by the long term owners?

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patriotz

“Do you support renovations and think it is a good thing these apartments are being sold by the long term owners?” First of all you are mixing up two stories, the first about apartment buildings for sale and the second about renovations at one building, 1770 Davie Street , which is not for sale. Of course I support renovations when needed. If you want to what happens to a city when they’re aren’t any, go to Havana. And tenants who are required to move should receive fair compensation. One can argue about whether the Davie St tenants are getting enough, but again before the election you never claimed tenants weren’t getting enough, and they were getting less then than they are now. And of course I think the owners of any property should be able to sell it when they… Read more »

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YVR

“First of all you are mixing up two stories, the first about apartment buildings for sale and the second about renovations at one building, 1770 Davie Street , which is not for sale.”

Patridtiz try to keep up. The 1770 Davie St building was sold to Reliance who then immediately evicted the tenants, some who where there for over 40 years. Anyone who buys a building with a 2.5% cap rate is not going to keep the current tenants/rents. They have a plan in place which what ever it is it is not good for the tenants.

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Just Thinking

When did Reliance buy this building? The article doesn’t say.

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YVR

“Of course I support renovations”

I meant renovictions not renovations. It seems now under the NDP renovictions are a good thing.

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YVR

I guess Eby forgot about this promise.

Jan 22, 2016 :

Currently there is nothing in the residential tenancy act to protect a renter from a so-called “renoviction”, where a landlord evicts a tenant for some measure of renovations and then hikes up the rent when the work is done. NDP housing critic David Eby was also in attendance at the meeting and says there needs to be legislation around the issue of “renoviction”. “It’s a really common practice,” he said. “We saw it a lot in the West End around two years ago.”

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/renoviction-fears-spark-special-meeting-after-a-handful-of-tenants-receive-eviction-notices-1.3415325

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patriotz

“I guess Eby forgot about this promise.” Well no. And how about leaving the goalposts alone this time.

“Over the past year, the Province has made several changes to the Residential Tenancy Act (the “RTA”) to provide new protections and compensation for renters in British Columbia who might otherwise face eviction as a result of repair, renovation or demolition of residential properties.”

https://www.lawsonlundell.com/real-estate-law-blog/changes-to-the-residential-tenancy-act-regarding-renovictions-and-land-assemblies

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bullwhip29

a number of lucky land owners in Steveston to become eligible for up to $250,000 in taxpayer funded renovations…

https://www.richmond-news.com/news/city-to-host-info-session-on-steveston-heritage-grant-program-1.23957725

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bullwhip29

Chinese group demands public apology for racist rant
https://www.richmond-news.com/news/chinese-group-demands-public-apology-for-racist-rant-1.23959334

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Hyper-mega-Bull

welcome to the sino-sphere. where chinese culture defines the rules of conduct.
you are going to see more of this ridiculous irrational “face saving” behaviour in the future.

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Best place on meth

She apologized.

“the rant did not meet the threshold of hate speech and that the driver had written an apology letter to the victim, who did not want to pursue the matter.
Regardless, the group is not satisfied.”

It’s as if they don’t speak English…..

““We just want to urge the lady to apologize to the local Chinese community. If she doesn’t want to do that, we won’t force her to do so,” Zhang added.”

She apologized, shut the fuck up already.

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Shit It Down Already (original)

Exactly…STFU…FFS
This is a nothing burger.

All we have is a video snapshot posted by some butthurt party.
Do we have a more comprehensive video????..maybe there is far more to this story.

All this video did was cause even more ill- advised tension in society.
Councillor Au is nothing more than a reverse racist vote whoring commie shill..

.God help Richmond in the future when foreign locusts are in charge moreso than now.

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bullwhip29

Taicheng Development Corp, which was recently renamed Tigerbay Development Corp., is now proposing to develop the land it purchased in 2012 into a six-acre surf park and resort-style village along B.C.’s Sea to Sky Highway after previous development applications failed to get approved and an attempt to sell the land also proved unsuccessful
https://bc.ctvnews.ca/surf-park-suspension-bridge-part-of-pitch-for-resort-village-on-sea-to-sky-1.4610685

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southseacompany

“Don’t-pay-til-you-die reverse mortgages are booming in Canada as seniors binge on debt”, Financial Post

https://business.financialpost.com/real-estate/mortgages/dont-pay-til-you-die-reverse-mortgages-are-booming-in-canada

“Already carrying debt, many seniors can’t downsize because they can’t afford high rents, so turn to reverse mortgages for a new source of income”

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xhistory

Debt is income. If Ben saw it coming, would he still be a Cassandra?

No! He’d be a central banker!

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patriotz

“Already carrying debt, many seniors can’t downsize because they can’t afford high rents, so turn to reverse mortgages for a new source of income””

It’s been pointed out by many analysts that these people would be better off selling and renting. Reverse mortgages are a bad deal. They people are really staying in their houses because of emotional reasons, or expectations of future increases what they could sell for.

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Best place on meth

Nothing shows your hatred of your own children like spending their inheritance yourself.

Die already, boomers. Nobody will miss your greedy, wrinkled asses.

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xhistory

Here’s a Want Ad posted a few hours ago on Saltspring Exchange

“Experienced, reliable and even tempered cook. Must have housing and transportation on island. Will train for our Kitchen.”

This is what happens when you refi out the Wazoo, you and your select group of Housing crime syndicate players… a veritable army now of homeless and ill transported citizens, and calling them uneven tempered.

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Hyper-mega-Bull

Speaking of commentators that have been wrong about Vancouver for more than a decade, what’s Ben Rabidoux up to?

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xhistory

He’s taking a course in rhetoric?

Everyone has an Achilles heel.

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southseacompany

Ben was quoted in the latest issue of Mcleans’s; “A ‘dumb’ idea to make housing more affordable”

https://www.macleans.ca/politics/ottawa/a-dumb-idea-to-make-housing-more-affordable/

“Imagine if mortgages could be amortized over 100 years, explains independent analyst Ben Rabidoux. It’d make monthly payments lower, but would that really be addressing housing affordability? “I’d argue it’s not,” he says.

That’s because, to him, there’s a difference making housing more affordable, and making the carrying costs of a home more affordable. “One is the price of the asset,” says Rabidoux, president of research firm North Cove Advisors. “The other is carrying the cost of the debt.””

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Just thinking

Ben is 10 times smarter than Hyper-mega-Bullshit is.

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paulb

New
178
Price Change
87
Sold
101
TI:14391

http://www.clivestevepaul.com
http://www.instagram.com/clivestevepaul

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xhistory

History repeats, in twos, threes, fours… and onwards to 11. Since the thread is dealing with 2006, And 13 years, Shiller’s thesis is really about our time in the housing sphere, not having a recent parallel to base a supposition.

The housing time we pervade now, is of a more complex harmonic.

Perhaps look at 29-33 years. I remember my Mom passing away during that time, now it’s my Fathers turn. I received an inheritance back then, and used it for a college education. This time around I can’t afford to travel to the funeral, nor do I want to. It’s not an affront to anyone, just the reality of our times.

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StrataHacker

Now imagine if you had spent that inheritance on property instead of college. You would not be homeless and childless.

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xhistory

– I had a house before, during and after college but refinanced to buy Japanese Mutual Funds in 1992. Promptly got divorced after returning from a B.C. work term (I’m originally from Ont). Moved to BC in 1996 as important comets appeared. Conceived a child during a Galactic Centre full moon in June of 2000. Moved to AB after 9/11. Returned to BC when Comet McNaught appeared in January 2007. Lived in Port Hardy for five years, and live in my vehicle going on eight years now.

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bullwhip29

just as the typical cast of msm cheerleaders and politicians were all patting themselves on the back for being instrumental in the re-invention and building of Vancouver into a so called “tech hub” (now that money refining and all the 2nd derivative industries that go along with it have effectively ceased) one of the so called big anchor tenants slated to occupy much of the shiny new BentallGreenOak tower, that being the formerly sought after IPO darling WeWork, we are now hearing that the company may be a total fraud and could run out of cash in weeks…
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-09-26/wework-s-dash-for-cash-clock-is-running-down-to-raise-billions

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xhistory

That company is an Experiment in Political Economy. Read the introduction to the 1909 edition of John Stuart Mill’s “Principals”, by W.J. Ashley

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Just Thinking

Singh pledges $5,000 home rental subsidy to help up to 500,000 families

https://www.citynews1130.com/2019/09/26/singh-pledges-5000-home-rental-subsidy-to-help-up-to-500000-families/

so rents will increase by $5,000

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xhistory

5 is known as a Quintile. With a bit of skill and talent that money will find its way back into the pocket of the grantee, as you aptly note,. So vote for me, Jimmy Dhaliwal, Uranus Opposition party of Canada.

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xhistory

If politicians were allowed to be creative, or alternatively, we truly had a holistic perspective (or trying for), the correct amount for these families in subsidy, is to offer $7,777*, with 1/3 going into the pocket of the family, 1/3 into the pocket of the landlord, and 1/3 going to the local not-for-profit Soup kitchen-Food bank.

*7 is the number of limits, and probably only 3 or 4 people on the planet can suggest its esoteric use.

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Bag it and tag it

That’s the beauty of having zero chance of winning an election…you can make any type and number of crazy promises since you’ll never have to worry about making good on them.

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Just Thinking

Vancouver needs to build over 20,000 rental units over next two years to meet predicted demand: report

https://www.citynews1130.com/2019/09/26/vancouver-needs-20000-rental-units-two-years-predicted-demand-report/

these 20,000 people should call BPOE to get set up…

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Bestplaceonearth

You can start by moving out of your mama-dark-moist basement!

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Just Thinking

Bada bang !

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