Schiller: That old 2006 mentality

Southseacompany points out that the economist Robert Schiller has some thoughts on the economy and a bit of history repeating:

“Housing is driven by narratives. Before 2007, the narrative was flipping houses [and the belief that] home prices have always gone up,” the Yale economist said during an interview with Yahoo Finance’s YFi PM. “Then, after the Great Recession, it was tragic narratives about people who lost their home, or dangers of borrowing too much or lending too much. It’s been 10 years since the crisis. Now, those narratives are starting to be forgotten.”

Read the full article here.

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Just Thinking
Guest
Just Thinking

According to a report from Zoocasa, it now takes 52 years to save for a typical home in Greater Vancouver for households making a typical income of just over $70,000.

https://www.citynews1130.com/2019/09/26/more-than-half-century-save-for-metro-vancouver-home-report/

have fun kids …

jim
Guest
jim

@ Just Thinking

Canada is not the country to live in if you want kids….better to stay single and childless. There are better places to live where they actually reward you for having a family…in major centres in Canada (where the jobs are) you are doomed to paying high prices and along with that, the inevitable mortgage slavery if you want a decent place to live in. The federal politicians response? More and easier access to debt!

Bag it and tag it
Member
Bag it and tag it

Just as bad a mortgage slavery, if your marriage goes South then your wife gets custody of the kids and you’re paying for their living expenses for the rest of your life while you live in poverty just to make ends meet….all part of male privilege. Women realize this once they are married which disproportionately increases their power in the relationship and they turn into complete monsters, thus increasing the odds of marriage failure. The majority of my married friends have vocalized this nightmare they are living.

Just thinking
Guest
Just thinking

Singles want to be married and marrieds want to be single. I’ve been in both camps. If I had to do it all over again I would not get married; it’s too much hassle and the kids are a pita.

Shut It Down Already (original)
Guest
Shut It Down Already (original)

You cannot buy a “benchmark home” and half of all people make more than the median income.

Bestplaceonearth
Guest
Bestplaceonearth

Just thinking is entitled to detached family home only. No condo nor townhome!

No Shill
Guest
No Shill

Guess what? That’s why prices are going down.

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

Vancouver lawyer Kailin Che to represent elderly couple from Oak Bay, Denise Pettersson Simpson, 72, a Canadian citizen, and her husband Robert Simpson, 93, a U.S. war vet who received a Purple Heart, in legal fight against the B.C. Government’s speculation tax
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/b-c-s-controversial-speculation-tax-to-face-legal-challenge-1.5297789

Bestplaceonearth
Guest
Bestplaceonearth

Good on this lawyer to challenge the wealth tax!

Just Thinking
Guest
Just Thinking

We expect you to contribute generously to their crowd funding campaign.

patriotz
Member

“Vancouver lawyer Kailin Che to represent elderly couple from Oak Bay,”

Correction: they’re from (i.e. legally resident in) Texas, not Oak Bay, which is why they are being levied the tax.

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

I am surprised no one has chimed in on this article and what this lawyer is really up to…

patriotz
Member

She’s trying to set a legal precedent to get offshore and satellite owners off the hook from the spec tax. And her clients may not be paying her but someone else probably is.

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

without a doubt, this is what is going on. i would imagine considerable thought and analysis was put into selecting this particular couple too.

now, for everyone not aware of which lawyer this Kailen Che works for, it is the same firm that represents the likes of Michael Mo Yeung Ching, who has somehow remained untouchable after all these years of scandal and corruption. in fact, by the looks of things, business is still going gangbusters in what is now 2019…
https://nationalpost.com/news/canada/b-c-developer-with-liberal-ties-denies-he-is-man-wanted-in-chinese-corruption-case-and-sought-by-interpol

Just Thinking
Guest
Just Thinking

Ya I thought that too. She is obviously out to make a name for herself and a pile of money as well.

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

Bidding wars back.

2971 E 16th ave

Sold over asking.

We hit the bottom in the spring looks like.

13 offers on the place.

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

looking around richmond and other areas of gr vanc, the market is still in a coma and looks to remain so until all kinds of issues (lasting many years or decades imho) are cleared up. for all intents and purposes the mid to high end of the market is still bidless. this so called surge in interest at the lower margins of the RE ladder is only indicative of fence sitters and those with more limited budgets getting into the party just as the clock ticks down and the music stops…

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29
nope, these buyers fell for the new countertops and appliances, were dazzled by the latest realtor-speak, got trigger happy and couldn’t help themselves. after years of brainwashing by the MSM, many inexplicably fell in love with “charming”, “character” neighborhoods like renfrew heights and other areas that were previously nowhere to be found on the radars of eager buyers looking in dunbar, kits, cambie, main etc. of course a few million here and there tend to sway opinions and years later these same folks are chomping at the bit to buy anything within the boundaries of vancouver and somehow acquiring a taste for a view of the second narrows or the port of vanc. as long they can get into the detached market (and finally thumb their noses at those 2nd class citizens living cardboard boxes), nothing else matters. imho this… Read more »
Bestplaceonearth
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Bestplaceonearth

By the look of your long post it seems like you’re getting panic again.

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

my basic point was that people are already getting complacent again. the real panic hasn’t even begun and yet so many have already declared the RE bear market over and are jumping in head first without seeing the bigger picture

Just Thinking
Guest
Just Thinking

it’s called “catching a falling knife”

Just thinking
Guest
Just thinking

You have any proof of this anything you say ?

Bestplaceonearth
Guest
Bestplaceonearth

What will the other 12 buyers do next?

Just thinking
Guest
Just thinking

Should they call PaulB ?

Bestplaceonearth
Guest
Bestplaceonearth

They should – Paulb is a decent realtor. Don’t be shy – heck, he will even treat you a cup of Starbucks. At least, it give you a chance to see another human being out there, instead of hiding in mama basement 24/7.

Just thinking
Guest
Just thinking

You need some new material, you are getting stale.
Maybe get out there and knock on a few doors to get some listings.
You gotta hustle when the market is slow.

paulb
Member
patriotz
Member

“Singh said the NDP would create a dedicated RCMP unit to fight money laundering at a cost of $20 million per year, with B.C. as the priority. Money laundering has been identified as a factor in the province’s runaway housing market.

He also said the NDP would create a national beneficial ownership registry which would allow officials to know the identities of individuals behind many of the corporations and trusts buying and selling property.

Finally, Singh promised to bring in a 15 per cent national foreign buyer’s tax on properties bought by those who aren’t Canadian citizens or permanent residents.”

I’m not interested in defending Singh or the NDP’s non-housing proposals so don’t ask me to. But they do show some recognition of what needs fixing.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/ndp-new-deal-bc-housing-climate-change-1.4508610

southseacompany
Member
southseacompany

Unfortunately, Singh, like Scheer, wants to bring back 30 year amortizations.

https://www.ndp.ca/news/jagmeet-singh-wants-keep-dream-home-ownership-alive

patriotz
Member
“Unfortunately, Singh, like Scheer, wants to bring back 30 year amortizations.” Looking at that, it seems the NDP is just cobbling together proposals that sound good without any real analysis. I heard a guy from the Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives (the left wing thing tank) on CBC saying that getting people deeper in debt was the last thing we need – something that principled conservatives (e.g. Ivison in the NP) agree on. https://nationalpost.com/news/politics/election-2019/john-ivison-if-you-cherish-a-stable-canadian-housing-market-beware-politicians-shopping-for-votes “At the risk of stating the obvious, the reason that home ownership is out of reach for many Canadians is that prices are too high. The stress test has kept prices lower than they would have been and “fixing” it could inflate them again. Interest rates are still low by historic levels, so if buyers can’t afford to fulfill the conditions of the stress test, they… Read more »
Shut It Down Already (original)
Guest
Shut It Down Already (original)

Patriotz knows this. He just loves the “blame foreigners” narrative, despite all available evidence and data not coming anywhere close to supporting such a hypothesis. Sad.

Best place on meth
Member
Best place on meth

All you know how to do is to instigate, irritate and disgust everyone.

You’re a parasite, a useless piece of shit.

You have no value whatsoever, and you revel in that status. What a miserable life.

patriotz
Member

Well that’s certainly a change from all the posts claiming that I’m a “HAM denier” or similar. Thanks for bringing in some balance.

Just thinking
Guest
Just thinking

https://www.citynews1130.com/2019/09/25/cibc-reorienting-canadian-mortgage-strategy-to-focus-on-more-markets-ceo/

Canadian banks are too dependent on mortgages in TO and VAN.
When this gas bag blows it will take down the banks.

Just thinking
Guest
Just thinking

https://www.citynews1130.com/2019/09/25/vancouver-real-estate-bottom-market-expert/

Apparently this “expert” can see into the future with his crystal ball.
Pumpers pumping. They will pump all the way down to the bottom.

Bestplaceonearth
Guest
Bestplaceonearth

Again, you are too focusing on the nitty gritty reporting by the media. When has bears’ expertise been right since 2004 anyway? Look at the terrible stage bears are in right now! People’ mortgages keep getting smaller as they pay down the debt, and bears’ rental payments keep getting bigger. The market has downward correction since last year; it’s a good opportunity to get back in. What have bears done? nothing, nada, zip! Mr. Brownface even lends bears the minimum down payment, and they still don’t know what to do with it. Losers lose!

Boombust
Guest
Boombust

Ha ha…if you had seen all this coming you’d be a billionaire by now. Asshole.

Royce McC
Guest
Royce McC
@Bestplaceonearth: You are calling out “bears” as if that cohort is entirely populated with people now in their 50s who’ve been wrong for decades. Do you even understand who is on the other side of the housing affordability issue? Do you have any sense of how screwed you personally will be if incomes and shelter costs don’t become more closely aligned? Are you one of those people who gripes about how hard it is to get in to see a doctor? Or how hard it is to find daycare space? Or hire good people in any role? Are you one of those people who complains about Millennials, not realizing that your crappy experiences are a reflection on the fact that the brightest and hardest working young people are leaving or are spread incredibly thin just to stay afloat because of… Read more »
Bestplaceonearth
Guest
Bestplaceonearth
I don’t whine and complain and moan! I work my way around my problem. I don’t blame others, I take my own responsibility. If I can’t hire new people, I work double shift. I balance my wants and needs with a frugal life, and do not have a sense of entitlement. Last time I check, fundamentals left the barn long time ago, and this town does not owe anyone shit. Congratulation to you and your spouse for making it work. Did complaining or whining solve you issue? Of course not! It’s only your own planning and action solve your problem. My position is basic common sense – you cannot just rely on others but your own to solve your problem; you owe it to yourself. And If a smart guy like you don’t understand it, well, learn better. Maybe you… Read more »
Royce McC
Guest
Royce McC
“this town does not owe anyone shit.” I know many who hold this POV when it comes to our real estate, but (apparently) not other sectors. This town doesn’t owe anyone timely access to a physician. This town doesn’t owe anyone a prompt response from a 911 operator. This town doesn’t owe anyone quick action from firefighters. Of course personal sacrifice and living within your means are important. I’m a big fan. But painting everyone with the “entitled” brush and trying to bludgeon them with tales of bootstrapping doesn’t let you off the hook for considering the structural problems that exist in our economy – and disproportionately affect younger people (who will one day cover our essential services, form our future tax base, etc.). “No man is an island.” Jon Bon Jovi said that and it’s very true. You or… Read more »
Bestplaceonearth
Guest
Bestplaceonearth

For years, the naysayers spread the fear that the young people existing this town in drove that there is nothing left. Well, the vacancy hovers sub 1%, the vacancy taxes barely improve affordability. For every job vacants, there a line up for it. For rental comes up to the market, it gets filled quickly. So, stop portraiting the armageddon as if it happens, and go on living.

Just thinking
Guest
Just thinking

Royce:
Don’t waste your time with BPOE he just a shallow real estate shill who’s whole life revolves around RE.
I’ve seen these clowns a hundred times over now in this city.
Just a typical RE pumper who lives a parasitic life off of others.

The best course of action is to ignore these trolls.

Bestplaceonearth
Guest
Bestplaceonearth

Wow, you are so smart! you actually think a few anonymous posts can pump real estate! Smart you are!

Royce McC
Guest
Royce McC

That’s definitely a possibility. But in the unlikely event that someone is going to allow themselves a moment to consider other POVs, I do figure it’s worth trying to articulate a constructive opinion from time to time. Cheers.

Just thinking
Guest
Just thinking

If you can post your name and phone number I will contact you and give you some business.
You seem kind of hard up right now.

Bestplaceonearth
Guest
Bestplaceonearth

Call PaulB. He will help to turn your life around; it’s too dark in the basement.

Just thinking
Guest
Just thinking

So you are shilling for PaulB now?
You must have so much business that you can’t handle all of it.

Bestplaceonearth
Guest
Bestplaceonearth

You can’t even admit you have a problem, no wonder…you are in the status quo!

Just Thinking
Guest
Just Thinking

I don’t think you know what “status quo” means …

Bestplaceonearth
Guest
Bestplaceonearth

You dont have to tell the world you are falling behind. Keep that to yourself.

Doomcouver
Member
Doomcouver

Buy now or you’ll miss this immaterial, faux correction guys.

southseacompany
Member
southseacompany

“A ‘dumb’ idea to make housing more affordable”, Macleans

https://www.macleans.ca/politics/ottawa/a-dumb-idea-to-make-housing-more-affordable/

“The Conservatives and the Liberals have both rolled out policies meant to address housing affordability for new buyers. They don’t really work.”

“Earlier this summer, before the federal election period officially started, president and CEO of the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) Evan Siddell was speaking on a panel when he was asked his thoughts on extending amortizations from 25 years to 30 or even 50 years. “If you extend amortization, you’re increasing demand and increasing debt,” Siddell replied. “So, you know my answer: I think it’s dumb.””

Doomcouver
Member
Doomcouver

It’s beyond dumb, whoever came up with this plan in the Conservative party is full-blown intellectually disabled. How else can you explain Canadians being in this much debt and the Conservatives wanting them to take on MORE debt?

paulb
Member
Hyper-mega-Bull
Member
Hyper-mega-Bull

history repeating? so he’ll be wrong about vancouver again?

Robert Shiller– “The Canadian housing market could face a similar housing bust to the United States, particularly in more bubbly markets as Vancouver and Calgary” 2010

he also said foreign buyers were a myth.

Boombust
Guest
Boombust

Hyper-mega-Bull,

If you don’t know/understand how/why Canada “skirted” a major bust back then, I guess you never will.

In other words, we will now be paying double for not “allowing” that correction to bottom out back then.

Hyper-mega-Bull
Member
Hyper-mega-Bull

>If you don’t know/understand how/why Canada “skirted” a major bust back then, I guess you never will.

yet a noble prize winning economist wasn’t able to figure out that canada would “skirt” a major bust back then at the time.

patriotz
Member

“yet a noble prize winning economist ”

He’s noble and prize winning all right, but I wouldn’t give your spell checker, or whatever came up with that, any prizes.

Shut It Down Already (original)
Guest
Shut It Down Already (original)

He nitpicks shit like that yet remains silent when the racial slurs come out. Despicable.

Best place on meth
Member
Best place on meth

Nobody cares about your perceived racial slurs.

Fuck off you whiny piece of shit.

FUCK OFF!!

Boombust
Guest
Boombust

Don’t be an idiot; he had more on his plate dealing with the US collapse.

Hyper-mega-Bull
Member
Hyper-mega-Bull

if, as you say, his conclusions are specific to the US why are you (1) defending his opinion about vancouver in the past and (2) acting like his opinions about the US now have anything to do with vancouver now?

as you said, the canadian situation is different.

>If you don’t know/understand how/why Canada “skirted” a major bust back then, I guess you never will.

you are contradicting yourself. your argument is a good example of bearlogic. please use more bearlogic to explain your position further for the entertainment of myself and others.

patriotz
Member

“as you said, the canadian situation is different”

It was different in 2008 because RE valuations in Canada and household debt/income were a lot lower than in the US.

It’s different today because these metrics are now a lot higher than in the US.

Hyper-mega-Bull
Member
Hyper-mega-Bull

patriotz has awaken to take credit for predicting the bear market! that can mean only one thing, we’ve reached the bottom 😀

patriotz
Member

“that can mean only one thing, we’ve reached the bottom”

Promise to put the rocket ship back when prices start rising? Is it still in the repair shop?

Hyper-mega-Bull
Member
Hyper-mega-Bull

if you had a kid when you first predicted the market crashed would they be old enough to drink now?

Bestplaceonearth
Guest
Bestplaceonearth

You still cannot see the difference between the relaxed lending practice in the US that led to 2008 crash, and strict lending in Canada. Why don’t you try to apply for a mortgage pre-approval here and learn what the bank demands of you.

Best place on meth
Member
Best place on meth

Zero down and 40 year amortizations was the opposite of strict.

It was purely a house pumping ploy by worthless politicians, in this case the Harper gang.

Doomcouver
Member
Doomcouver

Don’t forget as well, in Canada, it’s nearly impossible to get an American-style mortgage where your term and amortization period are the same. Thus comparing our mortgage markets directly is like comparing apples and oranges. Nearly ALL of Canadian mortgages are potentially sub-prime on renewal.

patriotz
Member

“Robert Shiller– “The Canadian housing market could face a similar housing bust to the United States, particularly in more bubbly markets as Vancouver and Calgary” 2010”

That is actually a paraphrase of what he said in 2008. “he also said foreign buyers were a myth.” Not in the 2008 article. Maybe just in your head?

http://www.financialpost.com/Canada+face+housing+bust+Shiller/853094/story.html

Hyper-mega-Bull
Member
Hyper-mega-Bull

he’s been wrong for so long it’s actually hard to find the original sources. more than a decade. and no, it’s not in my head. he’d often talk about how bubbly cities justify their high prices fictitious foreign buyers.
but some here have been wrong for even longer than him! amazing!

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

They lived the Chinese-Canadian the dream. Then the rich couple descended into ‘unrestrained warfare’
https://nationalpost.com/news/canada/they-lived-the-chinese-canadian-dream-then-the-rich-couple-descended-into-unrestrained-warfare

Just thinking
Guest
Just thinking

If the The “Chinese-Canadian Dream” is ripping off hard working and taxpaying Canadians, then yes they were living the “The “Chinese-Canadian Dream”.

Hyper-mega-Bull
Member
Hyper-mega-Bull

Confucius says: “The greatest pleasure in life is cheating the yang guizi and getting something for free.”

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

Ozzie Jurock’s annual conference full of investment advice, life philosophy and predictions
https://www.vancourier.com/opinion/vancouver-real-estate-advisor-urges-conference-goers-to-jurock-this-way-1.23954770

Bestplaceonearth
Guest
Bestplaceonearth

Don’t bears wish they have listened to Ozzie about housing!

xyz
Guest
xyz

@ Bestplaceonearth

I think you’ll find that most people….bears/bulls…. don’t purchase something as significant as a home based on what anyone says.

Just thinking
Guest
Just thinking

Well at least Ozzie hasn’t been sued lately …

Bestplaceonearth
Guest
Bestplaceonearth

Don’t worry about him. You should be focusing on yourself.

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

Richmond council approved building a new $110M community centre in Richmond, but won’t allow affordable housing as part of the project
https://www.richmond-news.com/news/housing-rejected-in-steveston-park-1.23956075