Friday Free-for-all! November 29th 2019

Well hello there!

If you’ve come to this site you may be looking for info on the local real estate market – what’s going on with house prices in Vancouver? Are they going up? down? permanent plateau?

Should you buy now? Move to the states? Invest in gold? Buy beanie babies?

Beats us! But we bet you have an opinion.

Now let’s see if you can discuss the local economy without devolving into angry racist screeds.

How’s the local job market? Where are prices going? What are you seeing out there?

88 Comments on "Friday Free-for-all! November 29th 2019"

Notify of
avatar
Sort by:   newest | oldest | most voted
Werner Stein
Guest
Werner Stein
It’s the beginning of the end; the rats are starting to jump of the sinking ship. It has been said, there is no honour among thieves. They will flip and turn against each other. The Hillbilly party of BC is made up of opportunists who are shrewd and ambitious and would pimp their mothers and daughters for money, but with the exception of a very few, they are illiterate imbeciles. They undid a lot of the social progress that had been achieved to satisfy their own greed and political gain at the expense of creating a gulf between have and have not. Luckily, they are stupid and they were not able to achieve permanent change, but only created an illusion which obviously is about to pop. As an added bonus, most of the personal gains will disappear as it had… Read more »
YVR
Guest
YVR

If you has to pick a hillbilly in BC politics nobody is going to get more votes than Horgan and Eby. Just look at them. Zeke and Cleetus would be better names for them.

paulb
Member

New
94
Price Change
35
Sold
105
TI:11652

For the month (approx.)
List: 3055
Sold: 2546

http://www.instagram.com/clivestevepaul

Bestplaceonearth
Guest
Bestplaceonearth

It’s only November, and the sale to list is strong. I wonder what will happen when spring comes.

Best place on meth
Member
Best place on meth

That is an average sell/list ratio for |November.

YVR
Guest
YVR

But under the BC Liberals you were screaming bloody murder but now with similar stats all is good?

Best place on meth
Member
Best place on meth

It takes a special kind of asshole to make everything political.

Fuck off.

YVR
Guest
YVR

Rich Coleman again. He is a corrupt criminal who needs to be arrested, charged, convicted and sent to jail for the rest of his life.

Yes I don’t know anybody around here who makes everything about politics.

Best place on meth
Member
Best place on meth

That was actually relevant.

Shut It Down Already (original)
Guest
Shut It Down Already (original)

Hypocrite.

Shut It Down Already (original)
Guest
Shut It Down Already (original)

So just an average hot market then?

Werner Stein
Guest
Werner Stein

https://twitter.com/scoopercooper/status/1200417986722578432

This is gold.
Why did the hillbillies that were in government at the time not report this to the RCMP?

YVR
Guest
YVR

Report what? Canada does this every single day to thousands of people coming into the country and so does the US.

https://www.priv.gc.ca/en/privacy-topics/airports-and-borders/your-privacy-at-airports-and-borders/

Best place on meth
Member
Best place on meth

Rich Coleman again. He is a corrupt criminal who needs to be arrested, charged, convicted and sent to jail for the rest of his life.

Best place on meth
Member
Best place on meth

Incredible!

I’m not surprised at any of this but it’s an eye opener for a lot of people.

Thanks again, Sam Cooper!

Projection
Guest
Projection

I would love to see more comments from people who have waited this whole time, since VHB started on 22nd March 2005. How are you feeling about your decision to wait that long? What’s the plan now?

Joe Money
Guest
Joe Money

Keep renting into retirement as it’s cheaper than buying and my investment income more than pays my rent. I will have so much left over to spend on other things.

Projection
Guest
Projection

I am sure this is true for you, Mr. Joe Money, and maybe for Ms Jane Money too. To most people, this is an unrealistic fantasy.

bestplaceonearth
Guest
bestplaceonearth

I don’t think those who waited have plans. Otherwise, they would not be in the predicament they are now. They thought they could beat the market by timing it. Others see the corrections as an opportunity, they missed out three corrections since 2005.

Projection
Guest
Projection

Three corrections? I remember only two. One in late 2008/early 2009 and one in 2018/2019.

Collette Edmonds
Guest
Collette Edmonds

The one your referring to in 2018/19 began in 2016 and has a long way down to go. If you get your information from MSN your being misinformed. CREA has no idea how the housing market works so they spin the numbers and have for yrs.

sandrill
Guest
sandrill

above comment was mistakenly entered by Sandrill under CE but CE disagrees with some of the comment

Projection
Guest
Projection

Remember, for 15 years, you have been the one correctly informed, waiting on the sidelines watching the misinformed idiots moving on with their lives. How did that work out for you?

I admit that I was wrong, very wrong, when I used to comment here about the inevitable collapse. I googled some of my comments from 2011 and feel embarrassed. I was so sure and so smug…
But if you have been waiting for 15 years and still can’t admit that maybe it was you who were mistaken, then there is no hope for you.

YVR
Guest
YVR

“I googled some of my comments from 2011 and feel embarrassed.”

So you bought after 2011? LOL

Projection
Guest
Projection

Yup, and the place doubled in value since then, but more importantly, only 5 more years of mortgage left.

YVR
Guest
YVR

Your place must be special if it doubled since 2012. No other places have. Here is an example of a place that has been for sale for a while with no takers at $2.5 million after a renovation. It sold for $2 million in 2009. It hasn’t even kept up with inflation if they got their asking price. The place is also for rent for $5995 per month. Again no takers but that would give the owner a 2% return after he pays the maintenance fees and property tax. Great investment. I’m jealous.

https://www.redfin.ca/bc/vancouver/8-Smithe-Mews-V6B-0A5/unit-2603/home/155576835

Projection
Guest
Projection

YVR, you are clueless. That is the problem with these doomer blogs. Lots of smugness and “erudite” analysis, and confident predictions of collapse, while reality refuses to comply. So, what do you do? Do you admit to being wrong? Do you adjust your analysis to reflect reality a little better? No, you just keep doing the same old thing, play with random numbers and post meaningless anecdotes.

Bestplaceonearth
Guest
Bestplaceonearth

Wow, you are so smart, you know it all. But…but…but why aren’t you a multi-millionaire?

YVR
Guest
YVR

What makes you think I am not? If you spent more time listening and less time blathering on about the joys of home ownership you may learn something.

Shut It Down Already (original)
Guest
Shut It Down Already (original)

See? YVR knows more about your place than you do.

In 2012 you could buy a one bedroom condo for under $400, and a 3 bedroom condo for $750. It’s not a exactly a stretch that some have doubled in value.

But you have one attempted counter example, so that’s OK.

YVR
Guest
YVR

“But you have one attempted counter example, so that’s OK.”

And you have no examples.

Shut It Down Already (original)
Guest
Shut It Down Already (original)

Don’t forget YVR knows more about your place than you do. LOL.

YVR
Guest
YVR

We all know you property owners own special places that make sense financially. You just can’t seem to show us one in real life. Must suck to have made such bad decisions you have to come here and lie about it.

Shut It Down Already (original)
Guest
Shut It Down Already (original)

Primarily because you’re incapable of understanding that mortgage principal repayments have a neutral impact on net worth and not a negative impact.

You also love to overestimate expected opportunity costs and fixed overheads, because you’re unwilling to consider an outcome which shows either a borderline outcome or one which shows that you’re wrong.

There are still properties out there where it makes sense to buy, but you closed your eyes to the possibility a long time ago.

YVR
Guest
YVR

“There are still properties out there where it makes sense to buy”

But you can’t even come up with one example.

Shut It Down Already (original)
Guest
Shut It Down Already (original)

I’ve done so many times here before, and frankly I’m tired of trying to educate you.

YVR
Guest
YVR

Tool.

Bestplaceonearth
Guest
Bestplaceonearth

Well, saliva is cheap. At least, you put $$ where your word is, and you will burn your mortgage contract in five years.

Projection
Guest
Projection

This is the typical smug delusional response I expect from commenters here. And to think I used to be a like that too… 🙂

The data proves that you are wrong:
– Sales,New Listings,Inventory: https://i.imgur.com/WSzqogg.jpg
– Sales/Inventory: https://i.imgur.com/Oso3YBK.jpg

November will be the 2nd month in a row with sales above the 10 year average and the 3 months before that were just a bit below.

YVR
Guest
YVR

You sound desperate to justify your financial mistakes.

sandrill
Guest
sandrill

listen to Ross Kay on Howestreet.. November numbers are wrong…sales above 10 ys ago but well below recent numbers.

Projection
Guest
Projection

Sales are above 10 year average, not “above 10 ys ago”.

And “wrong numbers” are yet another delusion that has been repeated ad nauseam on doomer blogs.

Bestplaceonearth
Guest
Bestplaceonearth

Paul just reported sale to list 120% for November, but the number is wrong according to some.

bestplaceonearth
Guest
bestplaceonearth

A minor one toward end of 2012 I recall.

Werner Stein
Guest
Werner Stein

“Great! I still visit. Since 2008 I have bought and sold 2 properties, one doubled in 8 years, the other doubled in 3 years. I now have a near mortgage free penthouse in Vancouver. The first unit I bought in 2009 when everyone was calling me an idiot for knife catching .”

Outstanding results Burt.

Seems like you are onto an impressive strategy that appears scientifically fail proof. I am inclined to think that along the road to your success you had wise mentors like Bill Good, Angela Calla and Cameron Muir.

However, I am puzzled at the fact that you haven’t leveraged the equity in your penthouse to purchase multiple properties.

I would highly recommend you get on that right away.

Burt
Guest
Burt

I want to be mortgage free, which will happen inside of 5 years. I didn’t take anyone’s advice, just educated guesses. That’s all anyone can do. I have been on this board, and many others like it since 2007ish.

Bears have always had the best case, and likely will into the future. But the trend is your friend, no matter how counter intuitive it may seem.

This time is no different. The rules of the game haven’t changed enough. On a 5 year time horizon, buying a principal residence is a good idea.

southseacompany
Member
southseacompany

“US Housing Market Bubble Won’t See Broke Millennials Buying Boomers’ Homes”, CCN

https://www.ccn.com/housing-market-bubble-broke-millennials-boomers-homes/

“Baby boomers own half of all American homes. As they reach old age, they’ll sell up and unleash 21 million houses on an already frothy market.”

“Millennials and Gen X can’t afford to buy the flood of homes on the market, potentially triggering a national housing crisis.”

“Signs of an imminent US housing bubble are already flashing red as price/income ratio hits record highs.”

Shut It Down Already (original)
Guest
Shut It Down Already (original)

Sell up? No chance. They’ll get a reverse mortgage.

Hyper-mega-Bull
Member
Hyper-mega-Bull

>they’ll sell up and unleash 21 million houses on an already frothy market.

Froth refers to market conditions preceding an actual market bubble, where asset prices become detached from their underlying intrinsic values as demand for those assets drives their prices to unsustainable levels.
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/froth.asp

so supply will be added to a hot market and this is bad for who exactly?

Bubble
Guest
Bubble

Because of rent control (2.5% per year, way below market 5-7% in Vancouver), it is hard for landlords (or investors).

bestplaceonearth
Guest
bestplaceonearth

When I read a comment like this from another Van RE blogger posted in July 2019: “Using the price chart and other past markets as a guide, REBGV headline detached prices (real, adjusted for inflation) could drop back to support determined by prices seen in 2013 (-45% from peak), 2009 (-60%), or even 2003 (-78%).” I just have shake my head. Pity! there is no cure for it.

Hyper-mega-Bull
Member
Hyper-mega-Bull
Projection
Guest
Projection

I can’t find the HPI for 2003, so I looked at 2009.

October 2019 HPI for Greater Vancouver (all types) was $992,900

October 2009 HPI for Greater Vancouver (all types) was $551,600. Inflation adjusted (according to Bank of Canada), it’s $657,507

People who have been waiting the whole time were not willing to buy when HPI was at $551,600. Why would they buy at a “crashed” HPI of $657,507? How long until we would even get there?

Shut It Down Already (original)
Guest
Shut It Down Already (original)

They think they’re going to pick up a Kits mansion for $400K.

Projection
Guest
Projection

Van Housing Blog started on 22nd March 2005. In 4 months will be the 15th anniversary of predicting housing doom in Vancouver. How did that affect your lives? Discuss.

Hyper-mega-Bull
Member
Hyper-mega-Bull

HAM denial and ignoring chicom infiltration has destroyed vancouver and been very good for my personal finances.

Doomcouver
Member
Doomcouver

It’s been going pretty good. I’ve been offloading the risk of an inevitable housing crash to my landlord for all that time with disproportionately cheap rent.

Burt
Guest
Burt

You know whats really “offloading risk” ? Being mortgage free. If you could have afforded to buy 15 years ago you would have 10 years left, or less if you did any prepayments.

Your housing costs would be negligible.

Now you have the risk of getting booted out, having to move, having to pay ridiculous rent increase, having to pay double or triple what the property was 15 years ago.

How does anyone see that as risk reduction?

YVR
Guest
YVR

Investing all your money in one asset that is declining is about as high risk as you can get.

Bestplaceonearth
Guest
Bestplaceonearth

If you still can’t differentiate principal residence and investment property, happy renting!

YVR
Guest
YVR

I enjoy paying a rent on a $1.5 million place of just over 1% of the property value after the landlord pays the maintenance fees and property taxes while my investments made me 15% last year. The $135,000 difference is more than you make in a year as a wage slave.

Shut It Down Already (original)
Guest
Shut It Down Already (original)

LOL. Your $1300/month condo has apparently increased by $300K since the last time you bored us with this, and that wasn’t long ago.

That would have been tax free for you had you owned it, too.

YVR
Guest
YVR

I go by assessed value. No matter how you want to spin it RE in Vancouver produces a terrible return whether you are a landlord or live in owner. You can’t seem to come to terms with your bad decisions.

Burt
Guest
Burt

You know this isn’t true, worse yet, making it a definitive statement makes any of your other counterpoints carry much less weight.

Van RE has minted more millionaires in the last decade than any of us can count. Its been a phenomenal investment tool particularly for those who had the fortitude to leverage up over and again.

Capital gains have been ridiculous, and anyone who has purchased investment condos is now sitting on money that has at least doubled, while rents have also doubled.

YVR
Guest
YVR

I just showed how you lost close to a half million last year alone. LOL.

Shut It Down Already (original)
Guest
Shut It Down Already (original)

You think $135K is more than a years wage. That says plenty about the decisions you’ve made and what the future holds for you.

And you just admitted that your landlord made a paper gain of $300K in a year or so while trying to convince yourself that returns have been terrible, while on other threads you’re shrieking about rents rising at 10% per year. Make your mind up.

YVR
Guest
YVR

You probably never broke $50k per year as a wage slave. I am in the top 1% and own a business. I don’t work for anyone.

And my landlord has made nothing other than the 1% he gets in rent. You are such an embarrassment.

Burt
Guest
Burt

You own a business and don’t work for anyone? To any business owners out there this is a laughable statement.
Everyone becomes your boss, especially in this economy. Your employees, the government, and most importantly the clients.

Projection
Guest
Projection

I know a few people who have waited the whole 15 years. They used to say the same thing about cheap rents. They don’t say it anymore and some of them can’t move, because rents are so much higher now.
I wouldn’t describe any of them as happy with their situation. They are mostly angry.

Shut It Down Already (original)
Guest
Shut It Down Already (original)

Angry and a bit racist?

Hyper-mega-Bull
Member
Hyper-mega-Bull

did your parents ever hug you and say they love you?

YVR
Guest
YVR

LOL you are joking, right?

Burt
Guest
Burt
Great! I still visit. Since 2008 I have bought and sold 2 properties, one doubled in 8 years, the other doubled in 3 years. I now have a near mortgage free penthouse in Vancouver. The first unit I bought in 2009 when everyone was calling me an idiot for knife catching . The second I bought in 2015 – outside Vancouver, sold that this spring for double what I paid. I also purchased my penthouse a year ago today. Its down probably about 5%. But I have a tiny mortgage and a place I want to live in for years to come. My mortgage is less than rent in a 1 bedroom unit in the same building. I’m not different than any poster here, I just took a different path against the internet wisdom. Just the same way I have… Read more »
YVR
Guest
YVR
“I also purchased my penthouse a year ago today. Its down probably about 5%. But I have a tiny mortgage and a place I want to live in for years to come. My mortgage is less than rent in a 1 bedroom unit in the same building.” With your penthouse you are getting about a 1.5% return on the money you put in. The S&P 500 did 20% since January. Lets say you paid $1.5 million. Lets do the math what it really cost you to live there factoring in what you could have done with the money. $75000 – 5% loss as you stated $30000 – 2% PPT $300000 – you could have made in the S&P 500 with $1.5 million invested since January. $405,000 it cost you to live in that penthouse over the last year before property… Read more »
Burt
Guest
Burt
Also – your post is kind of the crux of the bear blind spot the last decade and a half. Principal residence is something different, you guys all break it down into opportunity cost, and market returns. These are non applicable comparisons – investments are made with spare money, IE savings. Housing money is housing money. The only time my housing money will leave the RE market is when I die and need a hospice or a hole in the ground. The principal residence money is separate to all my other finances – the equity does not exist on any budget spreadsheet I run, there is no opportunity cost on it because its not investment or gambling money in the real world practical sense. My only consideration is to secure housing and keep housing costs as low as possible. Now… Read more »
Bestplaceonearth
Guest
Bestplaceonearth

This person started with a principal residence in 2008 and has traded up to a penhouse now that almost mortgage free. And he stated he will be living in long term. There is no price to homeownership. He didn’t say he plunged 1.5mil into his penthouse at once, Who cares about the paper loss,
You spoke after the fact like the rest of the basement dwellers –lifetime renters. Your mindset will make you a lifetime renters too.

YVR
Guest
YVR

You don’t trade RE, you get cash when you sell and then decide what to do with it. He made a bad decision obviously. Poor return in rent equivalent and down 5%. A disaster actually.

“I also purchased my penthouse a year ago today. Its down probably about 5%. But I have a tiny mortgage “

Burt
Guest
Burt

Its amusing how different perspectives can be.

To me the most important decision one can make, without question is to secure housing. Immigrant mentality I suppose.

We can debate the merits of RE as an investment vehicle, but owning RE for principal residence is absolutely non negotiable in my mind.

On the pure proforma only basis – I wouldn’t have the penthouse money had I not bought in 2009 to begin with. So the whole premise of me owning my “poor investment” is based around the fact that my previous RE purchases turned out financially favourable.

YVR
Guest
YVR

Then enjoy losing half a million last year alone and shut the fuck up.

Burt
Guest
Burt

You just dismissed yourself. I hope you see that.

Shut It Down Already (original)
Guest
Shut It Down Already (original)

S&P change since January includes recovery from December, and virtually no Canadian invests 100% in US equities.

YVR
Guest
YVR

The TSX is also up 20% over the last year. Only a fool who put everything into a dumpy townhouse would be so clueless.

Shut It Down Already (original)
Guest
Shut It Down Already (original)

The TSX has been a terrible performer for a decade. 2018’s dire performance erased 3 years of gains alone.

You just want to cherrypick the best years and the best asset classes. The more honest thing to do would be to use the long term average of a balanced portfolio, but honesty has never really been your thing has it?

YVR
Guest
YVR

You just want to cherrypick the best years

“I also purchased my penthouse a year ago today. Its down probably about 5%. But I have a tiny mortgage “

I didn’t pick the time frame. Tool.

Shut It Down Already (original)
Guest
Shut It Down Already (original)

LOL, in the same fucking post they mentioned 2008, 2009, and 2015 – so you even cherrypicked the timeframe under discussion!

Fucking idiot.

YVR
Guest
YVR

Fucktard he sold 1 year ago and then bragged about only losing 5% which as I showed was close to half a million. You probable lost the same you tool but you are too dumb to figure it out.

bestplaceonearth
Guest
bestplaceonearth

…and a bit if jealousy to your success detected by other!

bestplaceonearth
Guest
bestplaceonearth

Good job, congratulation! If someone called you an idiot, I would rather be an idiot than an armchair economist.