Friday free-for-all! Dec 13th 2019

It’s the end of another week and a lucky Friday the 13th, lets do an open topic discussion thread for the weekend!

here are a few recent links to kick off the chat:

So what are you seeing out there? Post your news links, thoughts and anecdotes in the comments below and have an excellent weekend!

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Werner Stein
Guest
Werner Stein

The Gold Bugs were predicting $5000.00 oz
Peak Oil pumpers predicting $200.00 brl
RE pumpers/ debt slaves predicting no crash

bestplaceonearth
Guest
bestplaceonearth

“RE pumpers/ debt slaves predicting no crash”

The prediction has always been correction along the way every now and then.

The conclusion is that, the elite armchair economists and the skillful bookworms would still moan and whine forever!

Wake up, you are living in multi-facets economy, not the textbook-economy with only wheat and barley as the economy-driver.

Projection
Guest
Projection

I hope this makes you feel a little better after 15 years of being wrong and 15 years of ruining people’s lives.

Whiz
Guest
Whiz

I think you are BPOE posting under a different name. Same crap different pile …

bestplaceonearth
Guest
bestplaceonearth

No, just to let you know, BPOE and Prediction are two different posters, so you don’t lose sleep over night.

Projection
Guest
Projection

Lots of what you are thinking is wrong and this is not an exception.

Whiz
Guest
Whiz

And so if I think you are an idiot … ?

bestplaceonearth
Guest
bestplaceonearth

“And so if I think you are an idiot…”
Between and idiot who almost got his mortgage paid off and a smart-basement-dweller-for-life, I would rather be an idiot.

Whiz
Guest
Whiz

Good, then we are both in agreement that you are indeed an idiot.

bestplaceonearth
Guest
bestplaceonearth

“then we are both in agreement that you are indeed an idiot.”

how do you feel when you sign your rent cheques to an idiot? bhahahahaha!

bestplaceonearth
Guest
bestplaceonearth

does your basement have a window? Cuz, you cannot see anything past your zipper!

Whiz
Guest
Whiz

Don’t quit your day job to become a comedian…

Projection
Guest
Projection

Ad hominem won’t help you.

Whiz
Guest
Whiz

It’s just a feeling …

Projection
Guest
Projection

This is just pathetic.

Whiz
Guest
Whiz

It is especially pathetic when you always have to troll everyone …

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

A recent decision by the consulate-general of the People’s Republic of China to form a corps of citizen volunteers in this city is raising concerns about improper foreign interference in Canadian affairs
https://nationalpost.com/news/constructing-a-system-for-overseas-peace-chinas-vancouver-consulate-recruits-volunteer-corps-prompting-fears-of-foreign-interference

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

A couple in China is being sued by a car dealership after their daughter scratched the paint of more than 10 new vehicles sitting in the showroom
https://driving.ca/audi/auto-news/news/dad-sued-after-toddler-draws-on-dealers-new-audis-with-a-rock

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

‘Staggering amount of fentanyl’ drug bust lands Richmond man in prison
Jaroslaw Orzel, of Richmond, was sentenced to 12 years in prison for drug and weapons charges. He was importing fentanyl from China
https://vancouversun.com/news/local-news/staggering-amount-of-fentanyl-drug-bust-lands-richmond-man-in-prison

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

Questions raised about structural safety of new Vancouver Island tower; tenants given option to move
https://vancouversun.com/news/local-news/questions-raised-about-structural-safety-of-new-vancouver-island-tower-tenants-given-option-to-move

Langford Mayor Stew Young said on Wednesday evening. “I’m prepared for any action. I’m prepared for the best- and the worst-case scenario,” “Whatever happens, we will find a solution and we’re not going to put our head in the sand. We will own it. We will deal with it. We will fix it…”

The worst-case scenario is that it is at risk of falling over or collapsing in an earthquake.

Centurion Property Associates owns six rental buildings in the capital region, including four in Langford and the one currently under review

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29
bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

but only as recently as a few months ago, there was nothing to see here… ( ̚‿̚ )

SFU not investigating cabal of Burnaby TAs helping students cheat
https://www.burnabynow.com/news/fake-news-sfu-not-investigating-cabal-of-burnaby-tas-helping-students-cheat-1.23941039

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

Hong Kong-based investors have been quietly buying up properties in Scotland, channelling their capital away from home amid months of anti-government protests
https://www.scmp.com/business/article/3042445/hong-kong-investors-pick-st-andrews-resort-hotel-sign-growing-appetite

Werner Stein
Guest
Werner Stein

Projection shamelessly shows off his/hers flawed logic.

“Sure. I heard this 15 years ago. Meanwhile, many of the “debt slaves” have become debt free and own their homes, while “savers” are still waiting.”

By that line of reasoning, if you have been smoking a pack, and drinking a bottle of whisky a day for the last fifteen years, it is safe to continue because you have not yet come down with cancer or cirrhosis of the liver.

I believe in science and math. It’s a bubble, and it will pop.

bestplaceonearth
Guest
bestplaceonearth

“I believe in science and math”
Science and math do not put food on the table and a roof over your head; they are tools to help you to make a realistic sound decision for your life. And it seems that you do not know how to use the tools.

Shut It Down Already (original)
Guest
Shut It Down Already (original)

Shitty analogy. Even the deepest of corrections will still leave them well in the black given how little they paid back then. But a correction of that magnitude will hit the entire economy, including those “savers” who don’t own real estate.

Projection
Guest
Projection

Nonsense. Once you pay off your debt, you are done. Your comparison is stupid, Pickle Rick.

Whiz
Guest
Whiz

“Once you pay off your debt, you are done.”

Not really. Factor in the ongoing costs of ownership like taxes and strata fees, plus all the mortgage interest that was paid to the bank, plus the other costs associated like buying of new furniture to go with the new place, etc. and also many people want to climb the property ladder so they will sell and buy again and perpetuate their debt cycle. And add in commuting costs to the mix as well since people drive until they can afford it (or however that saying goes).

I don’t think it’s as simple as you make it out to be.

bestplaceonearth
Guest
bestplaceonearth

That is true there are always cost associating to maintenance. But, your signature on the rent cheques is always beautiful to the landlord. What is your point?

Projection
Guest
Projection

If you live in a condo than your fees+taxes are a small fraction of what rent would be for the same place. Not only that, my mortgage+all ongoing costs are lower than the equivalent rent would be. And I bought relatively late!

“plus the other costs associated like buying of new furniture to go with the new place, etc”

This is a desperate argument. Wow 🙂

I get it, you are emotionally invested in a theory that has a very poor record of matching reality. It has been a long time and it’s difficult to admit that you made a mistake. So you make up desperate reasons why you didn’t buy.

Whiz
Guest
Whiz

I’m not “emotionally invested” in any theory (as opposed to you appearing to be) I’m just saying there’s been lots of rent vs. buy studies done and it really depends on so many variables that there is no definitive overall answer. I think you are trying to justify your own decision to buy late into an overpriced market that appears to be slowly collapsing under it’s own weight.

bestplaceonearth
Guest
bestplaceonearth

And the stupid bears have no “emotionally invested”? I am guessing, you have no spouse nor children to think of when you have no legacy to give to them?

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29
it is entirely possible that his DP and then some goes up in smoke as this cycle plays out. imho, we are only in the early innings (perhaps only in the warmup to game) of this major reset that has been way long overdue. from there it could take many years or even decades just to get back to even, so to speak. yes, any so called “extra” you may be paying in rent may (?) exceed mortgage + strata fees (which are set to soar) + insurance premiums (also set to soar) + utilities ( you guessed it, these are set to soar too) + maintenance and all that other fun stuff which currently costs and arm and a leg but you’d be doing so knowing there is no risk of your life savings being wiped out in the… Read more »
bestplaceonearth
Guest
bestplaceonearth

Well, you should really worry about your rental payment getting bigger by the year.

Projection
Guest
Projection
Renters pay insurance too. At least they should if they are responsible. Insurance premiums are peanuts anyway. “we are only in the early innings (perhaps only in the warmup to game) of this major reset that has been way long overdue.” I have been hearing this for years. This is so ridiculous, unbelievable. Doomer blogs have done so much damage. You don’t understand the basic math of owning. Even if the prices never went up, owners would be better off than renters. If prices go down 50% from here (they won’t), I will be still better off than if I had rented. I will own a place. Renters will be still renting and while they will have some savings, they will be in danger of being wiped out by the inevitable economic crisis. Not only that, but the vast majority… Read more »
bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29
“If prices go down 50% from here (they won’t), I will be still better off than if I had rented” >>> if prices dropped by that much they would still be higher than they were 15 yrs ago, you would have lost your DP and would almost certainly be underwater on your mortgage. besides prices doubled post 2010 meaning if we crash to say 2004 levels (-15yrs) you’d still be down 25-50%. ie. prices would need to triple or quadruple off the bottom for you to see daylight again. good luck with that… “Nobody will give you back the 15 years wasted on waiting for a collapse. And if the collapse materializes, it would take 5 years to get to the price level of maybe 2010, accompanied by a brutal recession. So 20 years of waiting and nothing to show… Read more »
bestplaceonearth
Guest
bestplaceonearth

“a poor unemployed renter could still shack up on someone’s sofa if need be. ” Really ? that would tell me a lot about yourself. Thank you for coming clean about it.

“owner could and will likely be offisde by hundreds of 1000s” no, Life goes on. One has got to live somewhere, the owner might as well live in his or her castle.

Projection
Guest
Projection

Keep dreaming. Prices will never return to 2004 levels. That’s a ridiculous suggestion.

50% crash would not put me underwater either.

These theories and debates have been going on here for a long time. That is precisely my point – it’s been all doom and wrong advice for 15 years. Sad.

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

please explain how someone that bought late in the game wouldn’t take a significant hit if prices reverted back to 2010 levels (approx -50% from 2016 peak)

bestplaceonearth
Guest
bestplaceonearth

“back to 2010 levels” You are just like the No Deal Party people, pulling the number out of your a$$! Dream on!

Projection
Guest
Projection

That depends on what kind of property that person bought. Condos peaked in mid 2018 for ex. Different areas peaked at different times too.

Also depends on your definition of “late in the game”. If it was up to this blog (and other doomer blogs) then late in the game was 2005.

Projection
Guest
Projection

Turning this around is not going to help you.

I am fine with my decision. I have only 5 more years left on my mortgage :-p

You are obviously emotionally invested in your theory, because you are still sticking with it after 15 years of being wrong. Nothing will make up for that lost time. Not even a collapse, which would also take years to play out and would be unlikely to return prices to pre-bubble levels.

Whiz
Guest
Whiz

You are suffering from confirmation bias. If you are happy with your decision to buy something late in the game then good for you but you don’t need to come on here to justify your decision to strangers who don’t really care. Beating your own drum doesn’t matter.

Projection
Guest
Projection

5 years from now, my place will be fully paid off, while you will be still bitching here about the “inevitable” collapse.

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

in 5 yrs add up the costs to pay off mortgage and subtract that from current market value. the result will be a negative figure to the tune of several hundred thousand. yup…winning…

Projection
Guest
Projection

Holy crap, what is it with you people? Are you really that dense?

I have a prediction – 5 years from now, this place will be still full of smug morons talking about the “inevitable” collapse.

bestplaceonearth
Guest
bestplaceonearth

I second your prediction. I have seen enough since 2004!

Projection
Guest
Projection

Right back at ya! You didn’t buy, wasted years on a wrong theory and now you come here to justify your decision to strangers.

Whiz
Guest
Whiz

Not everybody who posts here is renting. This is another flawed “theory” on your part.

Projection
Guest
Projection

I never said that. Nice try.

Whiz
Guest
Whiz

Umm, it’s quite obvious you are assuming everybody here is a renter; except you now of course.

Projection
Guest
Projection

No, that’s just your assumption. Quite pathetic.

Royce McC
Guest
Royce McC

Do you know that poster’s timeline extends back to 2004?

There are too many people taking victory laps around “opponents” that only represent a very small minority of people beating the drum related to the affordability crisis. Vast majority that I have encountered are younger, having been excluded within the last 5 years in particular.

bestplaceonearth
Guest
bestplaceonearth

Again, congratulation on becoming a home owner, Royce. How did you manage it?

Royce McC
Guest
Royce McC

1) Saved aggressively.

2) Allowed speculating landlords to subsidize my family living in detached houses for several years while pursuing #1 instead of buying into some BS property ladder and getting saddled with a too-small condo. (We’ve lived in some spectacular places while still saving a lot of cash each year. Wouldn’t trade it for having owned a mediocre small place instead.)

3) Aggressively negotiating down on a detached place this year.

Projection
Guest
Projection
“Vast majority that I have encountered are younger, having been excluded within the last 5 years in particular.” They still have options. If I were still in my 20’s and couldn’t buy here, I would move elsewhere for better opportunities. I know people who have moved to the US or Calgary, Edmonton, Halifax or elsewhere in the Maritimes. They have moved on with their lives and they are happy. OTOH, I also know people in their mid-40, who have been waiting for a collapse all these years. They have been putting off important decisions like family formation until they can buy and now regret it. Most of them followed the doomers like VCI or VHB or Garth and believed their arguments. When I tried to explain to them that they need to adjust to the reality, as bad as it… Read more »
Royce McC
Guest
Royce McC

My reply keeps getting stuck in moderation. Not sure why. Maybe this will work. Young people leaving is a problem. Losing talent is a problem. The squeeze for talent in essential services is real (I see it routinely first hand). As someone who lives here, I care about this. Those young people “getting on with their lives” by leaving represents a loss for us that will be felt over a long time line.

Projection
Guest
Projection

Doomer blogs have been around for 15 years.

“Vast majority that I have encountered are younger, having been excluded within the last 5 years in particular.”

Buying 5 years ago would have been better than renting.

Royce McC
Guest
Royce McC

And in the last 4 years? 3 years?

The only time that I regret not buying was right before that crazy spike we saw 2015/16, because I had the money and my only delay was I wanted to save up a bit more for the down payment. While I saw people here predicting that prices wouldn’t fall or would only a dip a little, I sure didn’t hear anyone predicting that the CAD would nose dive by 40% and house prices would spike like that one insane year. No regrets though. Those gains have been backed out nearly entirely now, and I saved a bigger down payment, all while raising my family in a great rented detached place that ate up maybe 15% of our take home pay.

bestplaceonearth
Guest
bestplaceonearth

“Buying 5 years ago would have been better than renting.” Amen to that!

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

Contractors left gas supply on before Richmond apartment explosion
https://bc.ctvnews.ca/contractors-left-gas-supply-on-before-richmond-apartment-explosion-report-1.4736075

>>> boom!

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

CRA agents execute search warrants at 2 Vancouver homes as part of an ongoing CRA investigation into roughly $3 million in unreported income “in an alleged attempt to evade payment of tax.”
https://globalnews.ca/news/6315647/cra-vancouver-search-tax-evasion/

>>> boom!

paulb
Member

New
57
Price Change
19
Sold
86
TI:10,290

http://www.instagram.com/clivestevepaul

Whiz
Guest
Whiz

Metro Vancouver developers delay projects in sluggish condo market

https://www.vancourier.com/real-estate/metro-vancouver-developers-delay-projects-in-sluggish-condo-market-1.23914513

According to some, the condo market was buzzing along ?

Whiz
Guest
Whiz

B.C. seeks to seize Salt Spring property allegedly linked to international stock fraud

https://vancouversun.com/business/local-business/b-c-seeks-to-seize-salt-spring-property-allegedly-linked-to-to-international-stock-fraud

B.C.’s Civil Forfeiture office is suing to seize $2.4 million island property.

Whiz
Guest
Whiz

Baby boomers have made a fortune on real estate — here are three reasons to consider cashing out now

https://vancouversun.com/personal-finance/baby-boomers-have-made-a-fortune-on-real-estate-here-are-three-reasons-to-consider-cashing-out-now/wcm/97426124-597d-4cdb-addc-411dc2a03973

Jason Heath: Beware the belief that real estate prices will continue to climb at anywhere near the rate we have seen over the past 20 years.

Whiz
Guest
Whiz

Vancouver council bumps empty home tax rate up to 1.25 per cent

https://www.vancourier.com/real-estate/vancouver-council-bumps-empty-home-tax-rate-up-to-1-25-per-cent-1.24021267?fbclid=IwAR28LW9XL-UkL24K1roYAJYlwYYchK3beLF0S094LLGRIUW-PJXy0IHBGAw

“As of Nov. 1, 2019, tax revenue charged to property owners totalled $80.3 million”

So good revenue for the city while addressing real estate speculation. Win Win.

Whiz
Guest
Whiz

Speculation tax increases to 2% Dec. 31

https://www.vancourier.com/speculation-tax-increases-to-2-dec-31-1.24031909

So good news all around with this article. The NDP are working for the people.

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

A restaurant customer in northeastern China is demanding higher compensation after he was served pig intestine filled with excrement at a well-known chain then offered a sum he considered inadequate, according to news video app PearVideo. The diner, identified only by his surname Wang, was enjoying a pot of rice noodles with pig intestine on Friday when he found a piece that was tougher to chew…
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3042337/waiter-theres-excrement-my-pig-intestine-chinese-diner-complains

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

Chinese national sentenced to time served for ‘maternity tourism’ scheme in Irvine, California
https://abc7.com/chinese-national-sentenced-for-maternity-tourism-scheme-in-oc/5763649/

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

West Vancouver real estate agent fined $7500 for ‘unprofessional conduct’ in property rental
https://biv.com/article/2019/12/west-vancouver-real-estate-agent-fined-7500-unprofessional-conduct-property-rental

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

While Vancouver rents increased in 2019, a new report predicts that they will continue to climb in the new year
https://www.vancourier.com/real-estate/here-s-how-much-rent-is-expected-to-increase-in-vancouver-in-2020-1.24037693

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

Jonathan Lee comes from a dim-sum dynasty: his grandfather and father ran the sizable Flamingo House Chinese restaurants on Cambie and Fraser streets for more than 40 years, and the latter still oversees a downsized location on Southeast Marine Drive. But despite Lee’s lineage and exposure to the restaurant industry, he never planned on opening a dining establishment of his own—until he realized that Vancouver’s Kitsilano neighbourhood doesn’t have access to traditional Cantonese-style dim sum.
https://www.straight.com/food/1335866/little-bird-brings-dim-sum-and-craft-beer-kitsilano

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

One of the largest social networks in the world, WeChat, says it has fixed a bug that caused the Canadian flag emoji to translate as the phrase “he’s in prison.”
https://www.ctvnews.ca/sci-tech/chinese-social-media-platform-translated-canadian-flag-emoji-as-he-s-in-prison-1.4735362

Werner Stein
Guest
Werner Stein

Projection says:
“ If you have a mortgage, this is not exactly terrible. The real asset going up in nominal terms vs mortgage being inflated away.”

You can steal from savers and subsidize the debt slaves for a long time, but eventually the model breaks down, and you will end up with stagflation.

Purchasing power will erode, and will translate into less demand for goods. For a while the higher cost of living will be offset by debt, so reduced demand for goods won’t be realized immediately, but eventually overextended consumers will be maxed out, consumption drops, and recession set in.

In the meantime, the inflation that has been renamed “affordability issue” will become too obvious to hide.

The debt slaves will be in a world of hurt.

Projection
Guest
Projection

Sure. I heard this 15 years ago. Meanwhile, many of the “debt slaves” have become debt free and own their homes, while “savers” are still waiting.

If the reality doesn’t match your theory, you should adjust the theory. If you have been waiting for your dream reality to materialize for a decade or longer, you screwed up big. If it’s been less than 10 years, it’s high time to reevaluate what you think you know about the world.

paulb
Member

New
82
Price Change
21
Sold
98
TI:10367

http://www.instagram.com/clivestevepaul

southseacompany
Member
southseacompany

“Canadian home prices to fall in real terms next year as affordability, mortgage rules bite: Fitch”. Financial Post

https://business.financialpost.com/real-estate/canadian-home-prices-to-fall-in-real-terms-next-year-as-affordability-mortgage-rules-bite-fitch

“Canadian house prices in real terms will fall modestly next year because they’re out of reach for many buyers and others that want to enter the market can’t get loans, according to debt assessment firm Fitch Ratings.”

Projection
Guest
Projection

>The country will see house price growth of about 1 per cent, which, when set against inflation of around 2 per cent

If you have a mortgage, this is not exactly terrible. The real asset going up in nominal terms vs mortgage being inflated away.

Whiz
Guest
Whiz

Inflation at 2% mortgages at 2% prices up every year until recently… it’s no wonder everybody piled in housing.

Joe Money
Guest
Joe Money

That should be;

Inflation at 2%, mortgages at 2%, everybody piled in housing … it’s no wonder prices up every year until recently

Shut It Down Already (original)
Guest
Shut It Down Already (original)

Some find it more convenient to blame foreigners, despite the wealth of evidence to the contrary. Sad.