Friday Free-for-all! February 21st, 2020

It’s the end of another work week and the start of another open topic discussion thread!

Here are a few recent links to kick off the chat:

Vancouver 6th worst bubble risk in world
Million dollar homes in central Okanagon
Political mortgage stress tests
Making it easier to get a mortgage
Housing crisis reckoning

So what are you seeing out there? Post your news links, thoughts and anecdotes in the comments below and have a fantastic weekend!

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Dave
4 months ago

Denier Says:
“I don’t deny the market is strong and gaining momentum and that BC is growing at 70,000 people a year (another North Vancouver).”

Werener Stein
Werener Stein
4 months ago

Pumper Says:
“Sales are steady and inventory is non-existent.”
10065 listings, + hidden inventory + new starts = non-existent inventory according to Dave Trump Math.

As I said before, you can have a crash even with half of the stated inventory.
The inventory will increase exponentially AFTER THE CRASH.

Also, whether it is caused by high interest rates, or high prices, when the affordability ceiling is reached, a crash will result. The damage will be longer lasting if it was caused by high prices- Debt endures.

Werener Stein
Werener Stein
4 months ago

One might ask:
How dishonest are the swindlers?
They are so dishonest that even Christy Clark had to pretend she was disgusted:

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/real-estate/vancouver/bc-unveils-rules-to-ban-shadow-flipping-in-real-estate-market/article29955003/

Werener Stein
Werener Stein
4 months ago

“I wonder why so many locals are crazily bidding into the gnashing teeth of a global economic collapse?”
Good question.

The main reason is that residential real estate is purchased by emotion.
The unethical RE cabal plays on the psychology of fear and greed.

Some of their tactics:
The bidding war scam:
https://www.moneysense.ca/spend/real-estate/tricks-realtors-use-to-sell-homes/
“unethical agents will collaborate with colleagues to intentionally double-book viewings to create a false sense of urgency. Some will even surreptitiously ask a friend or colleague to pretend to be interested in the property you happen to be viewing.”

Ad hoc
Ad hoc
4 months ago
Reply to  Werener Stein

Buddy of mine was selling his car and I happened to be over when someone came by to see the car and he says “pretend you are looking at my car and are interested…” maybe he should get into RE.

Brass Balls
Brass Balls
4 months ago

“Poor affordability and slowing population growth are biggest vulnerabilities to Greater Vancouver’s “housing health””

https://www.livabl.com/2017/04/poor-affordability-slowing-population-growth-biggest-vulnerabilities-greater-vancouvers-housing-health.html

“The fact that population growth has slowed, which is a little bit surprising to us given that population growth has accelerated pretty much across the country, it might be a little bit of a reflection of poor affordability that’s becoming an issue for people to move into the Vancouver area,” “

Projection
Projection
4 months ago
Reply to  Brass Balls

The same issues existed 10 or 15 years ago.

Projection
Projection
4 months ago

February sales will be 46% above February 2019. Inventory will be 15% lower.

Sales / Inventory at around 22%.

Dave
4 months ago
Reply to  Projection

Bad News Bears wasn’t just a movie, it was an accurate prediction.

Ad hoc
Ad hoc
4 months ago
Reply to  Dave

Are you giving away your age there Dave ?

Brass Balls
Brass Balls
4 months ago

“Mapped – price Changes for February, 2020.”

https://www.myrealtycheck.ca

Lots of red down arrows.

“Average Change: -4.17% Up:236 Down:1437”

Shut It Down Already (original)
Shut It Down Already (original)
4 months ago
Reply to  Brass Balls

Price changes are almost always down, even in hot markets. Prices are rarely revised upwards – the seller just accepts an offer above asking.

Dave
4 months ago

Exactly. You have to define the baseline for this information to have any meaning. What’s the norm and this time of year?

I suspect there is nothing there because the market is gaining momentum. Sales are steady and inventory is non-existent. Nobody cuts asking prices in that market… it’s a sellers market.

Shut It Down Already (original)
Shut It Down Already (original)
4 months ago
Reply to  Dave

Indeed. They also act like these price changes are cumulative, as if they’re being applied to the same set of listings over and over. Then they ignore the fact that even in hot markets properties generally still sell below list price on average.

Ad hoc
Ad hoc
4 months ago

When the market was hot a few years ago there were mostly green arrows so your theory doesn’t hold water.

Shut It Down Already (original)
Shut It Down Already (original)
4 months ago
Reply to  Ad hoc

And you can prove that statement which you just made up on the spot?

Oh wait.

Brass Balls
Brass Balls
4 months ago

Luxury market is dead. 20 months of supply. Smart money has left Vancouver. Only house-horny mils and two-bit investor wannabes being sucked in by lowering mortgage rates buying micro-units in Surrey.

Dave
4 months ago
Reply to  Brass Balls

It takes brass balls to sell real estate. You need to live up to your name and stop slagging buyers.

The smart money says 70,000 new people each year. Even the babies need a place to live. The Millenials are bigger in number than the Boomers and they are just entering their prime real estate buying years! Rates are at all time lows. Horgan is done monkeying with the market. We had our once a decade correction. The smart money knows what’s up!

Brass Balls
Brass Balls
4 months ago
Reply to  Dave

You’ve already been owned on that one. Give up the lies.

Metro Van’s growth rate has been falling for the last 30 years from a peak of 43k/ year in the 80s to 30k/yr today, while prices have risen. There’s no correlation between home prices and population growth.

It takes brass balls to admit the truth.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Metro_Vancouver

Shut It Down Already (original)
Shut It Down Already (original)
4 months ago
Reply to  Brass Balls

A falling growth rate is still growing.

Brass Balls
Brass Balls
4 months ago

Of course. Point is, there has been no correlation between Metro’s population growth and home prices. Home prices have both risen and fallen in times of population growth.

Projection
Projection
4 months ago
Reply to  Brass Balls

It’s a combination of population growth, low interest rates and high density in most desirable areas. Population growth is not going to stop any time soon, interest rates are likely heading even lower and the city will keep increasing density.

Dave
4 months ago
Reply to  Brass Balls

Both went UP. There’s your correlation.

Dave
4 months ago
Reply to  Brass Balls

UP UP UP

http://www.metrovancouver.org/services/regional-planning/PlanningPublications/OverviewofMetroVancouversMethodsinProjectingRegionalGrowth.pdf

And guess what? Trudeau wants MORE.

One million more in 30 years without the Trudeau bump! That’s a new Burnaby every 7.5 years! Think of all the houses, condos, townhomes, roads, malls, schools, bridges, businesses, etc..

Brass Balls
Brass Balls
4 months ago
Reply to  Dave

We had ‘more’ in the 80s and prices fell. No correlation. Not the cause of home price increases. Look elsewhere.

Dave
4 months ago
Reply to  Brass Balls

Prices fell because of interest rates at the time. You think rates are going to go through the roof? LOL

And guess what happened between 1980 and 1990? UP UP UP… and again each and every subsequent decade.

You really think population growth doesn’t impact prices? You’re not having an honest conversation, or you’re out of your mind if you think that.

A new Burnaby in Metro Vancouver every 7.5 years!

Ad hoc
Ad hoc
4 months ago
Reply to  Dave

Dave drank the kool-aid.

Dave
4 months ago

The market is busy. I just put an offer in on a house tonight and it’s multiple bids… 2 for sure, maybe more coming. Add another to the sale count for Monday.

Best place on meth
Best place on meth
4 months ago
Reply to  Dave

I wonder why so many locals are crazily bidding into the gnashing teeth of a global economic collapse?

Strange, the last thing I’d want to do with my money right now is to buy a highly leveraged and massively overpriced asset like Vancouver real estate.

Maybe they should be checked for COVID-19.

Dave
4 months ago

People want safe assets. Think we’ll win tonight?

Best place on meth
Best place on meth
4 months ago
Reply to  Dave

I’m worried about you Dave. Why all the bizarre errors?

Do you need an intervention?

Damn, who am I kidding? People on a downward slope never admit they need one.

Ad hoc
Ad hoc
4 months ago

Dave thinks houses are “safe”? And what’s the house address Dave ?

Dave
4 months ago
Reply to  Ad hoc

I don’t need more stalkers… or even more bidders on this one. I like winning.

Ad hoc
Ad hoc
4 months ago
Reply to  Dave

No proof, so no cred.

Dave
4 months ago
Reply to  Ad hoc

I have more than 10 years of cred here. You don’t. Believe me or don’t. Doesn’t change anything for me.

Werner Stein
Werner Stein
4 months ago

Pumper and magic numbers he pulls out of his hollow head.

Just embarrassing.
Is it lying or stupidity?
“Buy land to the east because they’re not making more.”
Yes the same old trope.
They are not making any more because it does not wear out.
And we are not running out of sky.
Seattle has a more challenging landscape and prices are not anywhere near Vancouver’s

But that aside the 70k you speak of is net population growth for the whole of BC which includes 43,370
Births, and babies do not buy real estate

Werner Stein
Werner Stein
4 months ago

“The agency gamed out nine scenarios involving various demographics factors such as natural birth rate and immigration and almost all scenarios could see Alberta surpass British Columbia by 2043 to become the third most populous province in Canada.”

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/91-520-x/91-520-x2019001-eng.htm

“Alberta surpass British Columbia by 2043”

southseacompany
southseacompany
4 months ago

“TSX shut down for ‘technical halt’ as stock markets sell off” CBC

https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/stock-markets-thursday-1.5477966

“The company that owns and operates the Toronto Stock Exchange ordered a “technical halt” to all trading on Canada’s largest stock exchange on Thursday, a day when stock markets around the world saw heavy losses.”

southseacompany
southseacompany
4 months ago

“Dow Jones sinks nearly 1,200 points amid coronavirus worries, worst 1-day drop since 2011”, Global News

http://vancouvercondo.info/2020/02/friday-free-for-all-february-21st-2020.html

“Worldwide markets plummeted again Thursday, deepening a weeklong rout triggered by growing anxiety that the coronavirus will wreak havoc on the global economy. The sweeping selloff gave U.S. stocks their worst one-day drop since 2011.”

Projection
Projection
4 months ago

Fed will cut rates on 18th March. A little late for the stock market.

paulb
paulb
4 months ago

New
187
Price Change
39
Sold
129
TI:10065

Shut It Down Already (original)
Shut It Down Already (original)
4 months ago
Reply to  paulb

LOL.

Dave
4 months ago

14 new listings and another triple. Amazing.

Best place on meth
Best place on meth
4 months ago
Reply to  Dave

It’s 187 new listings.

Fuck Dave, you didn’t even need to botch simple math this time – just read the number off the screen.

Shut It Down Already (original)
Shut It Down Already (original)
4 months ago

10065 – 10051 = 14

Is there no end to your stupidity? No need to answer.

Bag it and tag it
Bag it and tag it
4 months ago

There were 197 new listings. 14 was the net increase in inventory.

Best place on meth
Best place on meth
4 months ago

I was just trolling Dave, I knew what he was trying to say. He just fucked it up, that’s all.

I think he might be struggling with a substance abuse problem lately, all the mistakes are a red flag.

Dave
4 months ago

Does coke on the weekend count?

Best place on meth
Best place on meth
4 months ago
Reply to  Dave

Does it count towards “new listings”?

No.

Shut It Down Already (original)
Shut It Down Already (original)
4 months ago

Behind each element of total inventory is a listing. So it’s not incorrect to say there were 14 new listings, it just would have been clearer to rephrase.

But when you’ve been wrong for 15 years you need to jump on these petty opportunities as and when they present themselves.

Oracle
Oracle
4 months ago

Foreign students from India are flooding the valley. RICH ones coming by the thousands now. A new phenomenon.

Wait until each of these students call in their families to immigrate.

Now they are currently renting rooms in large houses but have their $100,000 cars.

Don’t believe me. Drive by 168 St/42 ave. About a dozen live here in a mansion. Full meal and maid service. Check out the cars. Wow.

Shut It Down Already (original)
Shut It Down Already (original)
4 months ago
Reply to  Oracle

Which schools are they attending?

Dave
4 months ago

Doesn’t matter. They still take up space and buy real estate. That’s what matters.

Ad hoc
Ad hoc
4 months ago

He is making shit up again ….

Ad hoc
Ad hoc
4 months ago

Air Canada cancels all flights to China through April 10 over coronavirus outbreak

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/article-air-canada-cancels-all-flights-to-china-through-april-10-over/

bad news for real estate…

Dave
4 months ago
Reply to  Ad hoc

Bitcoin and $$$ washing knows no bounds.

bullwhip29
bullwhip29
4 months ago

The Public Health Agency of Canada (PHAC) has changed the China-focused coronavirus warning signs at Vancouver Airport, to reflect the global reach of the disease
https://www.richmond-news.com/news/coronavirus-china-removed-from-warning-signs-at-yvr-1.24085798

Ad hoc
Ad hoc
4 months ago

Vancouver port CEO warns of coronavirus woes as China trade continues to ebb

https://www.citynews1130.com/2020/02/27/vancouver-port-ceo-warns-of-coronavirus-woes-as-china-trade-continues-to-ebb/

this is bad for Real estate.

Werner Stein
Werner Stein
4 months ago

“+ 70,000 new immigrants to BC last year (and projected each year forever)”

Here is what people who work on population projections say:

“Many factors such as:
relative economic conditions,
changes in immigration policy, regional housing development/prices can influence population mobility in a way that is difficult to predict accurately.”

Oracle
Oracle
4 months ago
Reply to  Werner Stein

You are sooo naive.

Enjoy. Less competition for the rest of us.

Dave
4 months ago
Reply to  Oracle

He got the change in immigration policy correct. I’ll give him that. The change was… DOORS NOW WIDE OPEN.

70,000 last year and growing exponentially. Another North Vancouver in 2020. Houses, condos, bridges, malls, restaurants… 200 people a day. Think of the housing demand to supply those new bodies!

Shut It Down Already (original)
Shut It Down Already (original)
4 months ago
Reply to  Dave

A North Vancouver distributed across an area the size of, well, British Columbia.

Dave
4 months ago

Except all but a few come within Metro Vancouver. And you can’t build north, west or south. Buy land to the east because they’re not making more. But every year, more and more people come.

Shut It Down Already (original)
Shut It Down Already (original)
4 months ago
Reply to  Dave

Of course they’re making more. It’s called zoning.

Oracle
Oracle
4 months ago

Interest rates never going up again.

Emergency cuts coming.

1.5% five year mortgage rates coming.

Negative cash savings accounts rates coming.

The establishment will protect their asset values at all costs.

With mass immigration, Canadians real estate going to the roof.

Dave
4 months ago
Reply to  Oracle

I’m going to bury my money and gold in the backyard when we go negative on savings accounts.

Oracle
Oracle
4 months ago
Reply to  Dave

I’m going with the herd.

No way those with real estate assets will let their investments go down. They will riot.

Unlike the renters who at best can only post on the internet. Lol

Even a few hundred climate people brought bc to a standstill. Hahaha

Dave
4 months ago
Reply to  Oracle

I think it plays out this way for lack of creativity. Cutting rates is all they know and have learned. If you want to know what the script is going forward, read the Helicopter Ben speech. I remember back over ten years now that I told people right here on VCI that rates were going down and bigly. I told people to expect QE. I remember all the bears laughing about that and questioning what QE even meant. It wasn’t a common word at the time, but is now. No way we get QE most said. This wasn’t a great prognostication on my part… I just knew the script because I read it. Money is cheap now, but it’s going to get cheaper. It’s going to pay to have debt. Wealth accumulation will be proportional to the amount of debt… Read more »

Ad hoc
Ad hoc
4 months ago

Zolo Vancouver housing trends: down down down

– 4.8% Monthly change
– 4.9% Quarterly change
– 5.8% Yearly change

Dave
4 months ago
Reply to  Ad hoc

Here’s all the math you need to know:

Sales are up… big.
+ Listings are down… big.
+ Cost of money is down…
+ Pent up demand exists…
+ Huge open house traffic
+ 70,000 new immigrants to BC last year (and projected each year forever)
————————————
Housing Trends UP UP UP

Don’t kid yourself with selective data.

Ad hoc
Ad hoc
4 months ago
Reply to  Dave

You should go back to school.

Dave
4 months ago
Reply to  Ad hoc

You don’t need a degree in Meteorology to know what way the wind is blowing.

Ad hoc
Ad hoc
4 months ago
Reply to  Dave

And I know a blowhard when I hear one.

Dave
4 months ago
Reply to  Ad hoc

I know a player hater when I see one.

Ad hoc
Ad hoc
4 months ago
Reply to  Dave

You’re a “player” are you? Is that why you have time to post here ?

Dave
4 months ago
Reply to  Ad hoc

I’m here on a mission of mercy.

Do you know why Drachen and Patriotz went broke? They didn’t listen. Will you?

Oracle
Oracle
4 months ago
Reply to  Ad hoc

What kind of rejects showed up here since I’ve been gone?

They do know that book “smarts” and street smarts are two different things?

Quotations only there for the people that fall in that category.

Shut It Down Already (original)
Shut It Down Already (original)
4 months ago
Reply to  Oracle

Nobody who got banned from Twitter, as far as I’m aware.

Oracle
Oracle
4 months ago
Reply to  Dave

Hey Dave, what’s your opinion on this.

Buy ONE $2 million property in Vancouver OR TWO properties at $1 million each further out in valley?

What has more upward trajectory?

I’m convinced now housing won’t come down in prices within the next decade at least. I expect FOMO soon.

Dave
4 months ago
Reply to  Oracle

Both. 🙂

History says Vancouver, but I think the Valley.

Oracle
Oracle
4 months ago
Reply to  Dave

That’s my guess too.

I buy 2. My cousin buy tree.

Hahaha

Ad hoc
Ad hoc
4 months ago

Divorce reveals admissions of tax fraud, mortgage fraud, perjury and kickbacks

https://www.burnabynow.com/divorce-reveals-admissions-of-tax-fraud-mortgage-fraud-perjury-and-kickbacks-1.24085178

Read the whole article: it’s almost unbelievable,,, typical lying, cheating, stealing, income tax evasion. Throw in a bit of adultery too. Typical behaviour of a certain ethnic group and how many others of them are doing this same thing? It’s no wonder they have the reputation that they do.

Ad hoc
Ad hoc
4 months ago
Reply to  Ad hoc

“At least $2.7 million in unreported cash income was found in a forensic audit of a busy Richmond restaurant meat supplier, court documents show”

Cheating of Canadian citizens who graciously allowed this scumbag to come to Canada for a better life.

bullwhip29
bullwhip29
4 months ago
Reply to  Ad hoc

Richmond MLA Teresa Wat has voiced support for the local Chinese restaurant industry’s appeal for a tax break amid the coronavirus outbreak
https://www.richmond-news.com/news/richmond-mla-advocates-for-chinese-restaurant-tax-break-amid-coronavirus-outbreak-1.24084301

Best place on meth
Best place on meth
4 months ago
Reply to  bullwhip29

Special treatment for chinese?

Fuck off!

Werner Stein
Werner Stein
4 months ago

“It’s pushing ON a string. Your ignorance is showing again.”

Impressive, you do have google.

I thought you were leaving us.

Werner Stein
Werner Stein
4 months ago

This could be the catalyst for the deleveraging of the bubble economies, without the politicians taking the blame.
I doubt that negative interest rates are going to do the job.

Remember from ECO 101 when cheap credit was described as “pushing with a string”

We may finally see the theory play out.

Projection
Projection
4 months ago
Reply to  Werner Stein

It’s pushing ON a string. Your ignorance is showing again.

southseacompany
southseacompany
4 months ago
Reply to  Projection

“The Fed Is Irrelevant: Low Interest Rates Are The New Normal” Forbes

https://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2019/02/01/the-fed-is-irrelevant-low-interest-rates-are-the-new-normal/#487555ac76ae

“The Fed has been pushing with a string for a long time.”

Projection
Projection
4 months ago

Journalistic standards have been in freefall for decades.

Ad hoc
Ad hoc
4 months ago
Reply to  Projection

Admit it: you got owned yet again… calling others ignorant when you are the chief ignoramus. Goof.

Projection
Projection
4 months ago
Reply to  Ad hoc

So far, only the bears got “owned” here.

And “pushing on a string” is correct. It’s not my fault that some people, including journalists, are idiots. This is similar to the morons who write “should of” instead of “should have”.

Ad hoc
Ad hoc
4 months ago
Reply to  Projection

Keep showing us your ignorance. You “should have” left this one alone. Goofball.

Shut It Down Already (original)
Shut It Down Already (original)
4 months ago
Reply to  Ad hoc

That’s your counter argument?

Compelling.

Ad hoc
Ad hoc
4 months ago

Butt out… not your dog.

Shut It Down Already (original)
Shut It Down Already (original)
4 months ago
Reply to  Ad hoc

Fuck off, neo-Nazi scum.

Projection
Projection
4 months ago
Reply to  Ad hoc

It’s all so tiresome with you bears. 15 years of being wrong about real estate and now you are trying to score a little win on this, when you are clearly wrong again.

Shut It Down Already (original)
Shut It Down Already (original)
4 months ago
Reply to  Projection

They’re digging in when a simple web search could have educated then.

Shut It Down Already (original)
Shut It Down Already (original)
4 months ago
Reply to  Projection

Shame on you, Projection, for authoring an entire Wikipedia article on the expression “pushing on a string” and craftily faking its entire history just to win points in a petty online squabble with a fucking idiot who believes that subject removal routinely takes months.

southseacompany
southseacompany
4 months ago
Reply to  Werner Stein

The public is maxed out on debt. Banks may be out of ammunition, but, who knows what magic they could come up with.

“Canada’s world-leading debt could be its downfall in global downturn, report warns”
https://business.financialpost.com/executive/posthaste-canadas-world-leading-debt-could-be-its-downfall-in-global-downturn-report-warns

“Now a new economic report for the Macdonald-Laurier Institute argues that Canada’s combination of weak economic growth, a reliance on consumer and government spending and a rising debt load makes it particularly vulnerable to a global downturn.”