Friday Free-for-all! February 28th 2020

It’s that time again, let’s refresh with a new open topic thread!

Friday Free-for-all time!

So what are you seeing out there? Post your news links, thoughts and anecdotes in the comments below!

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Werner Stein
Guest
Werner Stein

“Yeah. Vancouver is its own economy.”

Yeah sure,Vancouver ranks *15th in median family income relative to other cities.

*Data is a couple years old

Hyper-mega-Bull
Member
Hyper-mega-Bull

first in undeclared income

Shut It Down Already (original)
Guest
Shut It Down Already (original)

And the highest debt-to-income ratio in the country, with mortgage and HELOC debt alone coming in at over 200%.

Presumably that’s because rich foreigners are literally forcing people to take on life-changing amounts of debt, because it’s simply not credible that they’re doing so voluntarily to try and get rich quick just like their friends and colleagues did. Right? Right?

Best place on meth
Member
Best place on meth

102,239
3,497

Nothing to see here, just a bull market in Vancouver real estate hahahaa…….say, can anyone spare a roll of toilet paper?

Shut It Down Already (original)
Guest
Shut It Down Already (original)

This is how you spend your Friday nights.

Sad. What even sadder is how desperate you are to find another subject to distract from your truly disastrous track record when it comes to real estate. Enjoy it while it lasts.

xyz
Guest
xyz

In my opinion, cheap money is already priced in to most RE around the globe….I’m already looking past this virus thingy as a very temporary blip before plants open again to full production. In addition, Trump will easily win again in November and that will set the tone for growth and higher interest rates later this year.

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

If people want to blame anyone for the FOMO and frenzy that just started, I suggest calling the NDP.

It’s almost year 4 of their mandate. What have they done? Hahaha.

Told you so but you guys ridiculed me 2-3 years ago. And James doesn’t give a shit about renters. Nor did the Greens. Weaver now has 4 houses I heard. He had 3 at election time.

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

For those that are going to miss the frenzy again, here’s my suggestion. Buy a building lot far out in the valley. That way you’ve hedged against being homeless.

Watch the resident clowns here not take this advice.

Shut It Down Already (original)
Guest
Shut It Down Already (original)

Great news everybody – Zolo says the average monthly price change for Vancouver is +5.8%!

I’m sure our resident Zolo fan won’t have a reason to dispute this because that would be hypocritical, wouldn’t it?

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

Yeah. Vancouver is its own economy.

Record immigration, low rates, and restricted supply.

Recipe for disaster if you don’t own. Rents have started to go up again. NDP finished. Carole James retiring and she did squat hahaha

Where’s EBY????

I told you guys to focus on reducing immigration but all I got from the clowns on this blog are StatsCan links. Lol.

Enjoy the carnage now. You’ll be priced out of the entire Fraser valley now.

Oh I visited an open house today. Yes Friday. Super busy and they’re accepting sealed offers only.

FOMO 2.0 is here. Just like I said on January.

And I called the bottom last February 2019.

Shut It Down Already (original)
Guest
Shut It Down Already (original)

Great news everybody – 2.29% 5yr available again on ratehub!

Werner Stein
Guest
Werner Stein

“The 30 year USA Treasury has spoken.”

Yes, it said that institutional investors, do not have confidence that the Fed can effectively keep the economy going by printing more money.
So cheer up, when you get laid off soon , you might have some time to learn about economics.

Do invite Projection and Shut to help out with the cost if you get a tutor.
Bestplanceonearth is unteachable, so do not bother with him.

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

Why the flick would you get laid off. Vancouver is a inmigration, foreign money, and construction economy.

You people have no smarts. Using google doesn’t mean you are wise. Lol. Enjoy the FOMO over the next 120 days.

I’ll stick around and tell you.

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

The 30 year USA Treasury has spoken.

We are in a low rate environment for a very long time. Possibly 20-30 years.

Asset prices will be protected by the rich.

50 year mortgages coming.

And another thing, Pensions are finished. The Ponzi scheme they need is finished. Zero percent rates means cuts. . Those working at government jobs expecting a pension? Good luck. Hahaha

paulb
Member

New
148
Price Change
32
Sold
114
TI: 10,231

http://www.clivestevepaul.com

Shut It Down Already (original)
Guest
Shut It Down Already (original)

LOL.

Werner Stein
Guest
Werner Stein

You have to buy the insurance from them, NOT CMHC.
At their price and get fleeced +++ it is borderline usury- and that is coming from me ,and as you know I am a loan shark.

Projection
Guest
Projection

I know that you are a moron.

Werner Stein
Guest
Werner Stein

“Stagflation would mean rapidly increasing asset values” and deflating debt.
No , you really need to get educated.
It would mean massive unemployment.

Projection
Guest
Projection

It would mean both. It’s rich when the most ignorant person on this website tells me that I need to get educated.

Stagflation is not happening any time soon, anyway.

Econ 101
Guest
Econ 101

Stagflation = rising unemployment + rising inflation
Rising inflation = rising interest rates
Rising interest rates = downward pressure on asset prices.

Projection
Guest
Projection

You call yourself Econ 101, but you don’t know much about economics.

During the last big period of stagflation in the 1970s, Vancouver home prices quadrupled. Mortgages were literally inflated away. Prices then quickly corrected when interest rates peaked only to more than double again by 1990.

In other words in the two decades from 1970 to 1990, average home prices in Vancouver went up 8x! And bears here have been waiting for 15 years already!

Econ 101
Guest
Econ 101

Yes, or course, interest rates weren’t raised right away. In fact, in real dollars, interest became negative for a period in the 70s. But, eventually, in the early 80s, interests rates were raised dramatically to kill off the dramatic rise in inflation. Vancouver RE peaked and fell in the early 80s. In real dollars peak values did not return for about 20 years.

https://vreaa.files.wordpress.com/2013/01/van_house_price_1960_2012.png

So, perhaps, the equation needs some elaboration;

Stagflation = rising unemployment + rising inflation
Rising inflation = an eventual rise in interest rates
Eventual rise in interest rates = downward pressure on asset prices.

Projection
Guest
Projection

Only nominal prices matter for mortgages, you ignorant twit. If you argue with ‘real’ prices you are deceiving yourself.

In other word, if nominal prices double, but real prices stay the same, your mortgage has effectively halved.

As for the eventual rise in interest rates, that has been the argument for the past 15 years. How did that work out? The rates may stay low for much longer than you expect.

Econ 101
Guest
Econ 101

Yes, during the 70s, the cost of one’s original debt would reduce with inflation. I never said it didn’t. That is part and parcel of what happens during a high period of inflation. That situation changes when central banks eventually raise rates in an effort to kill the inflation

And, I made no prediction regarding what will happen in the future. I said that stagflation would eventual lead to higher interest rates. I did not predict that stagflation would happen.

You are projecting and not listening.

Projection
Guest
Projection

Liar. You predicted “downward pressure on asset prices.”

I prove to you that if stagflation happened, asset prices would rise.

Shut It Down Already (original)
Guest
Shut It Down Already (original)

Second most ignorant, if you catch my drift.

Werner Stein
Guest
Werner Stein

“HSBC now offering 1.99% 3-year fixed mortgage”
Strings attached.
They own you after you sign.
And you have to purchase default insurance from them.
Very Costly.

Plus they can do other things to you, but you and bestplaceonearth probably would like that.

Shut It Down Already (original)
Guest
Shut It Down Already (original)

CHMC insurance.

Projection
Guest
Projection

Every mortgage with less than 20% down has default insurance. It’s really not a big deal, nor unusual.

Every mortgage means that the bank “owns you” if you want to look at it like that. Good luck saving up for that high end property you want.

Projection
Guest
Projection

HSBC now offering 1.99% 3-year fixed mortgage.

southseacompany
Member
southseacompany

“The Coming Coronavirus Stagflation”, American Greatness
https://www.amgreatness.com/2020/03/05/the-coming-coronavirus-stagflation/

“Compare and contrast (the Oil Shock of the 70s) to what China makes and its important role in the consumer price index. The supply interruption of even a couple of months will cause shortages or price increases in items that have a significant effect on the formula for calculating inflation.”

“The coronavirus price increase, like the oil shock price spikes, will be the result of fewer goods being bid upon by the same money. Inflation will also make it relatively more expensive to hold cash as a store of value. To balance risk, investors will start shifting out of cash into non-cash assets. Cash will become almost toxic as inflation continues to rise. The Federal Reserve will raise interest rates even more, hoping to get in front of the panic.”

Projection
Guest
Projection

Stagflation would mean rapidly increasing asset values and deflating debt.

southseacompany
Member
southseacompany

“Condo owners face bankruptcies as insurance costs soar”, Business in Vancouver

https://biv.com/article/2020/03/condo-owners-face-bankruptcies-insurance-costs-soar

“Korecki Real Estate Services Inc. manages 7,500 strata units in dozens of Lower Mainland buildings. Of the strata corporations that have recently renewed their insurance, around 90% saw premium increases of 50-100%, Korecki property manager Mike Alavi said. “

Shut It Down Already (original)
Guest
Shut It Down Already (original)

So that’s an increase in strata fee of, what, 10%?

There is no crisis here.

southseacompany
Member
southseacompany

“Anger over councillor’s latte comment reveals affordability angst of the suburbs”, CBC
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/lois-jackson-lattes-delta-aftermath-1.5487921

‘Delta Coun. Lois Jackson is hoping to move on after her comments on how people need to “save and scrimp” and “do without a lot of things, including your lattes,” in order to own property went viral. ”

“UBC political scientist Carey Doberstein said while Jackson isn’t the first to suggest people start saving and skipping lattes, such advice isn’t really applicable to most people in Metro Vancouver. “The gulf between average incomes of [younger] generations and their stable incomes and professional opportunities, and that of the housing market price? The gulf is just too high,” he said.”

Burt
Guest
Burt
I don’t understand the collective delusion here. Why is that a few of you guys are completely unable to admit when the market turns? The reality is, the bear market for properties below 2 million is done. Properties below a million, and even more specifically one and 2bed condos are on fire. Why is this hard to acknowledge? Secondly, at the same time its also true that the high end, West Van, Van West will continue to drop as the multi-million dollar detached properties find no bids. Its like you guys understand the reality, but your biases are unable to let you admit it. Lastly, I made a comment earlier – don’t ignore the lengths central banks will go, to prop up asset prices. Not RE prices specifically. Lower borrowing rates will be a lifeline for business that struggle with… Read more »
Econ101
Guest
Econ101

The bear market for lower-end never really went away. The lower end never saw significant price declines. So this is not really a turn, just an increase in what was going on anyway.

The higher-end was where the correction happened and, to date, it has not turned.

Projection
Guest
Projection

Oh, I get it. The bears here are waiting for the high end market to crash so that they can buy. The wouldn’t bother with sub $2 million properties, which they always knew were in a bull market. Makes total sense.

Econ 101
Guest
Econ 101

Some may be waiting for a crash, like you say.

Some may not have the income/savings to buy.

Some may found that, due to their personal financial situation, its cheaper to rent than to buy.

Some may have found that, due to their personal financial situation, it was better to buy even thought they remain bearish about the market.

Many reasons.

Econ101
Guest
Econ101

Correction, that should read ‘bull market for lower-end”

asdf
Guest
asdf

China’s Xinhua News just posted a piece titled “Be bold: the world owes China a thank you”, which says if China imposes restrictions on pharmaceutical exports, US will be “plunged into the mighty sea of coronavirus”.

https://twitter.com/YanzhongHuang/status/1235300037875335170

Best place on meth
Member
Best place on meth

I told y’all that evil shithole should have been nuked in the 50’s.

Hopefully the virus accomplishes what President Truman failed to despite the sound advice given to him by General MacArthur.

Shut It Down Already (original)
Guest
Shut It Down Already (original)

Just another regular Friday night preaching hatred for you.

Pathetic.

typical
Guest
typical

They attack US when Trump bans travellers from China and now that the virus has reached the US they make innuendo about blockading medicine.

At every step they just think about themselves, manipulate, threaten, bully, play the victim.

When will the world see them for the selfish, petty, manipulative, insecure, liars they are?

Burt
Guest
Burt

Lol.

Try it China.

Werner Stein
Guest
Werner Stein

Lower interest rates come with a warning.

The biggest threat to the Canadian economy is the level of household indebtedness.

I would stay away from things like cigarettes, and mortgages, as they are dispensed with the same warning.

Burt
Guest
Burt

How much of what you write do you actually believe?

southseacompany
Member
southseacompany

“A coronavirus recession could mean a fearful reckoning”A coronavirus recession could mean a fearful reckoning Globe & Mail

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/article-a-coronavirus-recession-could-mean-a-fearful-reckoning/

“The OPEC-driven spikes in the price of oil in the 1970s were another instance of a supply shock. What constrains output in these situations is not a lack of demand, but of supply. Which means attempts to remedy them by traditional demand stimulus, fiscal or monetary, are not just useless – they make things worse. Boost demand, when the problem is really a shortfall in supply, and all you do is drive up prices; think of the housing market as a micro-example.”

typical
Guest
typical

Maybe we should have banned travellers from China?

southseacompany
Member
southseacompany
Full Article: No one knows how bad the coronavirus epidemic will get. The current case count is almost certainly an underestimate, and even the reported numbers, outside China, continue to grow exponentially. There’s a slim hope, still, that public-health authorities may contain it. Modern technology has enabled the spread of the disease, but technology – for testing, sharing data, developing a vaccine – may also help slow and then stop it. Suppose, however, it doesn’t. Suppose the number of cases continues to increase at its current rate – roughly quadrupling every week. By the end of March, the number of cases outside China will have grown from about 18,000 today to more than three million. By the time the disease has run its course, Harvard University epidemiologist Marc Lipsitch forecasts, it could end up infecting 20 per cent to 60… Read more »
Projection
Guest
Projection

Doomer porn.

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

City of Vancouver looking at 2 things.

Developers have option of not providing parking space for condo units if $20K paid to city.

Developers may get option to build condos with windowless bedrooms.

Do you have any idea what that’s going to do to proces of condos with windows and a parking spot??

Crazy.

southseacompany
Member
southseacompany

I believe it’s called the commodification of real estate.

http://cubeliving.ca

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

Go Kennedy Stewart? Another deceiver like the NDP.

Best place on meth
Member
Best place on meth

98,424
3,386

100K party tomorrow?

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

My advice to you. Get something. Otherwise you’re going to price your family out of the entire Fraser valley.

The population growth via immigration is just incredible right now.

Work permit holders aren’t even counted even though 50,000 come in with their families each year. Add to that the students. And their supervisa parents. Then add the ten year visa holders.

On top of that, the 340,000 immigrants in the regular streams.

If you don’t get this, you never will.

Projection
Guest
Projection

Across the water in North Van – half of the sales were over asking today

Shut It Down Already (original)
Guest
Shut It Down Already (original)

It’s because of the Hong Kong protests, amirite?

Projection
Guest
Projection

Across the bridge from downtown: South Granville + Fairview + Olympic Village + Mt Pleasant/South Main – most sales today over asking

Projection
Guest
Projection

Just checked Downtown + Coal Harbour + West End + Yaletown – most of sales today over asking.

Slava
Member
Slava

Hush now.