BC, CMHC, data, economy, equity, supply

Record construction with falling prices

482
482 Comments

Mo’ houses, mo money?

Canada Mortgage and Housing (CMHC) reported that Metro saw developers start construction on 28,141 new homes in 2019, up 20 per cent from 2018, with a substantial number of those, some 6,727, purpose-built rental units.

The CMHC report came out on the same day that Royal LePage released its latest house-price survey showing that aggregate home prices across the region declined 4.8 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2019 but in a market showing signs of recovering sales.

Read the full article here.

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bestplaceonearth

Still aiming for 75% off? Bhahahahaha!

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Projection

Several indicators showing that the correction is over. That is the reality. Whatever you think “should be” is just wishful thinking.

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Werner Stein

“They believe future prices are purely a function of past prices. Delusional. Houses in 2005 were mega cheap. Those prices are not returning.” . Bulls are the ones who parrot over and over the mantra that prices have been going up for the last fifteen years and justify their projection of continued price escalation. Your spurious unfounded arguments are the same as the ones used to justify previous bubbles. Then of course your exhausted nail salon argument: “Continued Strong Immigration + Limited Supply = Higher Prices” The numbers do not support this lie. My argument has been that the past aberration is not an indication of things to come. . -Mortgage rates cannot be cut again by 2000 bps -Demographics are not the same -Political corruption not eliminated, but it is exposed -Criminals are in the process of slowly exiting… Read more »

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Projection

Another day when almost everything sold over assessed values, often a lot above, in the areas I am following (Downtown Vancouver+surrounding areas, North Vancouver, West Vancouver)

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Ad hoc

When sold prices in 2019 were below (inflated) assessed values the pumpers used to say assessed values don’t mean anything but now you are using the lower 2020 assessed values as some kind of sales metric. Not very consistent of you. Anyways sold prices are still declining so don’t get too excited.

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Projection

You are right, assessed values have little meaning. I am mentioning them because they seem to matter to bears who use them as evidence of decreasing prices and claim that sales are below assessed, which is clearly not true.
Vast majority of sales are above assessed values.

Sold prices haven’t been declining for months, so you are wrong about that too.

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Ad hoc

it doesn’t take much to trigger you guys, does it? And to use your own argument against you; assessed values don’t mean anything. The data shows sold prices are still declining so get used to it.

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Projection

Looks like you are the one who is triggered. You are also a liar. The data shows the opposite of what you are saying and it has been proven here several times already.

Turns out that me being nice to you and providing you with valuable information is like throwing pearls before swine.

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Projection

I am going to be nice to you now and share the analysis of the areas I was looking at for the past 3 days, as mentioned in my previous comments here:

Sales over assessed: 84.5%
Sales below assessed: 15.5%

Average sales price difference over assessed: 11.02%
Average sales price difference below assessed: -3.13%

Weighted overall average sales price difference compared to assessed values: +8.82%

Assessed values are backwards looking. If you think they are a meaningful market indicator (many bears seem to think so), then the current situation is evidence of a trend change, similar to YoY prices being negative, while MoM being positive for several months in a row. Prices have been slowly rising for several months now and looks like they will accelerate this spring.

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Bestplaceonearth

Ok ok, up, down, sideway, 95% off, it’s ok. It’s not like you will buy in the next ten years or whenever anyway.
Now, go get yourself a lollipop and chill.
And, don’t join a group and get scammed, ok.

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Best place on meth

65,213
+17,007

1,486
+176

Ho Lee Fuk!

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Bestplaceonearth

Omg, Dave has been right many days in a row. Even the real estate insider and the group could not see how strong the market is.
Sign up adhoc, he is a newbie, he would not be able to tell what is a scam and what is not.

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Ad hoc

“Hellarious” !

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Bestplaceonearth

Busted, the mask was uncovered!

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Werner Stein

Patient BestP:

“The loser was busted, but still keep moaning.”

Aggressive and uncalled for response.

This is concerning given they have been primary sources of historical accounts, I would estimate them to be middle age, yet their outbursts seem to place them in their teens.

I cannot begin to speculate why the lack of emotional maturity.

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Bestplaceonearth

The loser was busted, but still keep moaning.
Why don’t you sign up lailach adhoc and bestplaceonmeth to be your members? They have the same goal as you do, waiting for a crash…75%.
You wouldn’t scam the basement dwellers, would you! Yeah, scam the guys with good profolio, don’t scam the guys who don’t have two dimes rubbed together.

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Ad hoc

Are you drunk ?

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Werner Stein

“but crummy psychopaths dealing with the disease of being right.”

Exactly, but their affliction is more severe because I detect a sense of Imposter Syndrome as well.
I would imagine substance abuse may also play a part.
I do have some compassion for them, but every time I try to reason they become more vulgar, belligerent and insulting.

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Werner Stein

“Only reality matters.”

The reality is the life support systems can only prolong the life of the bubble, it cannot cure the problem.

But I understand, you need to keep the illusion going, it is in your interest.

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Projection

You are a moron. You don’t understand what reality is and live in a world of make-believe.

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Shut It Down Already (original)

They believe future prices are purely a function of past prices. Delusional.

Houses in 2005 were mega cheap. Those prices are not returning.

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paulb

New
121
Price Change
27
Sold
88
TI: 9634

http://www.instagram.com/clivestevepaul

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Dave

Only 3 net new listings again. Amazing. This is not a good trajectory for bears.

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Werner Stein

“Another recycled “argument” from 2005.”

And then the politicians came to the rescue:
-40 year mortgages
-0% down
– government took the subprime loans off the banks’ balance sheets, and turned the junk bonds into triple A bonds.

In the US they let the market deal with it.
In Canada, they kicked it down the road.
And now the mess is just bigger.

There might yet be another magic trick to play, but I doubt it.

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Projection

It doesn’t matter what they did or how unjust it seems, nor does it matter what you think should be. Only reality matters. Observe it, accept it for what it is and deal with it.

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Bear Vancouverite

Just to play the Devil’s Advocate, I have seen the “kicked it down the road” argument for a long time.

The problem I see is that right now if the market were to slow too much, then the Federal and Provincial gov have many tools they can use to try to reflate things. So if record debt + speculation tax + foreign buyer’s tax + empty house tax still doesn’t do much more than result in short fall then flat market, the nothing short of a recession will push prices down more quickly.

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Best place on meth

We’re up to 4 full time house pumpers on the board, congratulations VCI! A new all time record high!

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Projection

How many years have you been proudly wrong now? 12 or 15?

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Shut It Down Already (original)

Calling him on his bullshit makes you a pumper, apparently. So utterly clueless.

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Projection

And a realtor apparently.

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Laibach

Hmm, not all of them are “house pumpers” but crummy psychopaths dealing with the disease of being right. It is fucking heavy emotional sickness where “they grow alienated from their more humane values, which makes them feel progressively less valuable. To compensate, they inflate their egos to fragile proportions, which seem to need more and more power as a defense. Covariant with the substitution of power for value is the persistent need to be right while making others wrong.”

https://www.psychologytoday.com/ca/blog/anger-in-the-age-entitlement/201401/beware-being-right

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Shut It Down Already (original)

LOL. Stick to real estate.

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Best place on meth

I agree, house pumpers are pure fucking evil.

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Bestplaceonearth

And how many permanent basement dwellers have you got?

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Bestplaceonearth

Busted!

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Werner Stein

“It’s a simple formula:

Continued Strong Immigration + Limited Supply = Higher Prices

Trust me on this.”

It is simpler than that, it is called a feed back loop, and it always ends the same way.
But it is different here, this time-right?

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Projection

Another recycled “argument” from 2005.

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Dave

Don’t want to be a fool for you
Just another player in your game for two
You may hate me but it ain’t no lie
Baby BUY BUY BUY.

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Werner Stein

“So your entire argument is based around a gravitational analogy?

Clown”

I just wanted to see which one of you fools would google the formula, and which of you are so illiterate to actually not catch on.

I thought at least the realtor Googlologist would have picked up on it.

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Shut It Down Already (original)

No need to Google when you have an education.

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Bestplaceonearth

Bhahaha, a formula for Van RE… bhahaha!
First, theory, second, exhibit, third, formula…
About all, busted. Bhahaha!

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Dave

It’s a simple formula:

Continued Strong Immigration + Limited Supply = Higher Prices

Trust me on this.

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Werner Stein

“Pay attention. ”

“the timing cannot be determined, the forces suggest that the destination of this bubble market is a very steep crater.”

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Projection

Blah blah, that’s all you have.

The data is clear – the market is getting hot.

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Dave

Yup, hotter than a Sugar Baby from Seeking Arrangement.

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Werner Stein

“Prediction: Prices in Downtown, West End, Yaletown and North Van city will go up 5% to 10% this year. Surrounding areas will follow.”

How did you arrive at that?
Did you pull those number out of mid air?

F = G*((m sub 1*m sub 2)/r^2

I use the above formula and while the timing cannot be determined, the forces suggest that the destination of this bubble market is a very steep crater.

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Projection

Pay attention. Almost all sales in these areas are above assessed values. Often a lot above it. Most sales are at or above asking too.

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Shut It Down Already (original)

So your entire argument is based around a gravitational analogy?

Clown.

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Projection

Prediction: Prices in Downtown, West End, Yaletown and North Van city will go up 5% to 10% this year. Surrounding areas will follow.

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Bestplaceonearth

I know a group around here that await for 75% off to increase their RE portfolio.

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Ad hoc

https://www.citynews1130.com/2020/02/12/liberal-leader-says-wrong-calling-domestic-violence-tough-marriage/

Wilkinson steps in it again. Remember his comments about renters? This boomer is a dinosaur and out of touch with reality which is good for the NDP.

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Dave

Wilkinson can’t win. I don’t think any of the Liberals can right now. Our friend from Anthem is the only guy that could pull it off right now.

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Best place on meth

That’s what I like about Wilkinson, his sensitivity towards the people of BC.

He really understands them and their daily problems like nobody else. The dude cares!

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Best place on meth

48,206
1,310

Bullish on corona

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Projection

The market is getting hot!

West End+Downtown+Yaletown – all today’s sales above assessed value, except one (which was 1% below). Most sales above asking too!

North Vancouver – all sales *way* above assessed value, except one, which was slightly lower. Most sales were double digit % over assessed. All except one sold at or over asking price.

West Vancouver – again, all sales except one were above assessed value.

Didn’t bother checking any more areas. The trend is clear.

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