Welcome to the terrible blog

Yeah, so you probably noticed the spam filter collapsed and just nuked everyone – we’ve switched that over and we’ll see if the new one works or not.

As far as news goes we seem to be in a holding pattern. Covid 19 has knocked out the market for listings and sales but we’re not seeing a big impact on prices yet with less moving.

How do you think this thing is going to pan out? Bounce back or bust?

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[…] –Downturn in sales expected to last for years–Who will buy the new supply?–Falling rents pose a big risk–Inflation turns negative–Ready to go back to school?–Deferral cliff could see 18% house price drop– […]

Oracle

Canadian retail sales fall 10%.

Metro Vancouver falls 5%.

Can you say cash economy, underground economy, drug money, Chinese money laundering, cash rents?

Dave

Only 5%? That’s crazy.

southseacompany

“Downturn in Canadian home sales expected to last for years”, CTV News video

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4b6KTe9zqyE

“Tom Storey of Royal LePage explains how the housing market has changed since COVID-19 and why condos sales will be affected most.”

Best place on meth

China seizes control of PPE factories, sparking fear of new coronavirus wave

https://www.foxnews.com/world/china-ppe-factories-seizures-coronavirus-wave-fears

China’s Communist Party is again seizing factory lines churning out the world’s supply of medical safety gear — sparking fears the country is preparing for a second wave of the coronavirus, American traders in China told The Post.

New Yorker Moshe Malamud, who has done business in China for over two decades, was moving tens of millions of pieces of protective gear to the U.S. at the height of the crisis but said suppliers in recent weeks had been overwhelmed with orders from the Chinese government.

Shut It Down Already (original)

Did nobody tell them about hydroxychloroquine?

Werner Stein

For our resident pumper realtor, here is a freebie on how to write a good bs story without sounding too stupid.
This author / shyster gets an “A” for effort, at least he does not use traffic flow as a data point in his con job hype.

https://torontostoreys.com/toronto-real-estate-correction-not-crash/

Oracle

Hong Kong exodus may happen this year. Hundreds of thousands may flood Vancouver.

It will be chaos on the housing front.

Dave,

Need a realtor ASAP on a moments notice. Mainly interested in buying a building lot if a frenzy happens.

Shut It Down Already (original)

Haha, why not use the same realtor as when you bought your lot in Surrey? Or the condo in Abbotsford?

franko

Dave is offering a (knockoff) Rolex for any new listing.

JT sucks

A Timex for Abbotsford

Best place on meth

Plus one of his ex wives.

Dave

All yours.

JT sucks

Up yours.

Oracle

What kind of investor uses the same realtor over and over? A savvy investor knows to employ many and let them compete for your business.

You’re a kid living off your parents. You make it so obvious.

If you really had $$$, you would want a big crash so you would be able to scoop up more properties while others are unemployed and can’t qualify for mortgages.

Advice for you: get a gf even if a fat one. And two, try to not manage your parents money so much. They are still alive.

Hahaha.

Best place on meth

Never mind the gf, he’s quite happy with his boyfriend from Shanghai.

Werner Stein

Another triple
LOL
Better hurry and get yours today, running out of listings.

paulb

New
188
Price Change
47
Sold
93
TI:10674

http://www.clivestevepaul.com

Shut It Down Already (original)

LOL

Dave

Wow, sales are picking up.

Best place on meth

Listings are picking up even more.

The sell/list ratio continues to deteriorate, down to a miserable 37% this month compared to 48% in April and 58% in March.

That’s why inventory is going up.

Shut It Down Already (original)

So almost everything sold over assessed.

Werner Stein

If CMHC is looking to replace Evan Siddall who, apparently, has a dim view of the housing bubble;I hope they do not overlook the three masterminds on this blog.

Dave

No rush to the exits = no bubble. Inventory isn’t hitting 20k guys.

Big Bear

This statement will still be valid next year?

Dave

Bubbles, by definition pop, they don’t deflate. If you’re posting about 20k inventory a year from now waiting for the whole market to pop, you’d be looking at it wrong. If this is truly a bubble as many claim, then we’ve already had the pin prick event. Either the market unravels fast because it’s a bubble, or it doesn’t because it’s not a bubble. Bears have about 5 months for that to play out. What I’m pointing out is the early evidence, which is that there is no rush to the exits. Bears can make all the excuses they want to explain that, but excuses are for losers. Winner’s don’t make excuses.

Big Bear

Ok then, why did prices fell for 4 years straight in the US after the GFC?

Oracle

Greater Vancouver is not “the USA”.

There are a record number of paid off houses here. Think about that.

The problem is in Alberta. Think why that is.

Dave

Firstly, the correction started at the start of the crisis. Secondly, the bulk of the drop occurred in the first year. Both observations are consistent with my premise above that if it’s a bubble, it will correct right away.

Sunny Day Real Estate

Prices started falling in 2006.

Falling prices caused the GFA of 08/09, not the other way around.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Case–Shiller_index#/media/File:Case_shiller_janv09.jpg

Dave

Notice that you’re already making excuses. Is it possible that deep down, you agree with what I’m saying and cognitive dissonance is giving you an out to collect on later? Come Spring 2021, will you be saying… it took four years to correct in the US and although the downturn is here small, the worst is still to come…

Big Bear

Ah the internalization card… I knew you would pull this one!

What tells you that the “bulk of the drop” isn’t later this year or in 2021? The GFC happened in 2008 and prices fell through 2009, look closely: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_the_United_States_housing_bubble

Dave

Ya, prices bottomed within a year. That’s my point, not yours.

If you knew that I knew that you gave yourself an excuse, why didn’t you throw it out? I think you’re making excuses for things that might not go your way in the future.

Let’s get real bears… if this really is a bubble, it’s not going to be a debatable point come next Spring. When a bubble pops, it’s clear and obvious to all. No need to muddy the water and lower the bar. Again, winners don’t make excuses.

Big Bear

I love your circular argument. You’re saying in a nutshell ” I’m right because I’m right”. We’ve been only 2 months on lockdown. That would be like May 2008 2 months after Bear Sterns crashed.

Dave

Nothing circular about it. My argument is that if we’re in a bubble, it’s going to be bloody obvious by next Spring. You seem to want to cling to the fantasy that the ‘bubble pop’ could occur more than a year into this, which is ludicrous. This doesn’t speak to whether we’re in a bubble or not. For it to be a bubble, there has to be a rush to the exits at the start of the correction because speculators, a needed element of a bubble, bail out early. And if it’s a bubble, it’s going to show up in prices a year into the correction. Bubbles pop and move fast. In the case of YVR real estate, that means inventory needs to grow to all time highs, which is over 20,000. And prices need to fall fairly substantially, like… Read more »

Big Bear

When did the Great Recession officially started and when did prices started to “pop” in 2008/2009 in the US?

Oracle

Apparently Greater Vancouver mortgage deferral rate is less than 3%.

Rest of BC is much higher to make it 7%.

And more properties here mortgage free compared to anywhere else.

Big Bear

Even 3% is a pretty bad number. Mortgage bonds collapsed when defaults rates were 4% back during the GFC. Does that number include non-insured mortgages?

Dave

The Bank of Canada has already assured bank liquidity and taken risk off the table.

Big Bear

Wait what? Are you implying that the BOC will pay defaulters mortgages?

Dave

Mortgage bonds are held by banks, not borrowers. You said mortgage bonds would collapse if defaults hit 3%. In my opinion, they won’t because the Bank of Canada will buy them before it can happen. They’ve more or less said as much. Bank liquidity simply isn’t an issue right now the way it was in the GFC.

Big Bear

So? A default is a default, whoever owns the mortgage.

Dave

It was your point around mortgage bonds. I’m just stating the facts.

In any case, mortgage defaults won’t break 1%. It’s 0.6 to 0.8%, probably less in Vancouver based on the low number of deferrals.

Big Bear

Where does your 0.6 to 0.8 % comes from? Thin air?

Dave

I have the documents. I read the graphs. I read the data.

Big Bear

Can you post it please?

Shut It Down Already (original)

LOL. He won’t even name the source.

backwardsevolution

“Bubbles, by definition, pop; they don’t deflate.”

Tell that to Japan!

Slow, grinding deflation for 30 years now.

bullwhip29

Who will buy Vancouver housing in a time of COVID-19?
https://vancouversun.com/opinion/columnists/douglas-todd-who-will-buy-metro-vancouver-housing-in-a-time-of-covid-19/

More condominiums and houses are under construction in Metro Vancouver than ever before. But who is going to buy them — let alone live in them — in an era mutated by COVID-19?

southseacompany

“Falling rents pose ‘a big risk’ for home prices: Capital Economics”, BNN

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/falling-rents-pose-a-big-risk-for-home-prices-capital-economics-1.1439432

“A drop in rents could impact home prices across Canada, according to Capital Economics, as a sharp drop in immigration and tourism are causing higher vacancy rates in some of the country’s biggest cities.”

“Brown said the surge in unemployment among low-income earners, a drop in immigration, and a decreased demand for short-term rentals were among the factors contributing to high vacancy rates, which is driving rental prices lower.”

Werner Stein

Looks like the reset is well underway.

The artificially low interest rates coupled with rampant crime, and corrupted politicians, who sold out their own people to foreign criminals, created distortions in some markets.

Vancouver was one of the very few places on the planet that was highly susceptible to the formation of a real estate bubble, particularly because the criminals and crooked politicians, along with some peripheral cabals like the local media and RE pumpers had coincidental interest to keeping the bubble afloat.

Prices were set for perfection, but such aberrations cannot persist for ever and so there is no need for some phenomena to take place for balance to return, but rather the absence of the deviations will pop the bubble.

The bubble was destined to pop Covid or no Covid.

southseacompany

“Canada’s inflation rate turned negative in April for first time since 2009”, CBC

https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/inflation-rate-april-covid-1.5576581

“Canada’s inflation rate fell to an annualized –0.2 per cent in April, as the COVID-19 pandemic pushed down consumer prices for the first time in more than a decade.”

Hello, deflation.

Laibach

This is what you get when you hire incompetent cadres to act as cabinet decoration. Quite expensive idiocy on taxpayers dime…

LILLEY UNLEASHED: Dr. Theresa Tam needs to be fired

https://torontosun.com/opinion/columnists/lilley-unleashed-dr-theresa-tam-needs-to-be-fired

Oracle

Bears, the only 3 things that can bring down this market are:

1). Moratorium on immigration

2) Massive permanent job losses

3) Brutal 2nd wave starting in early fall.

The rest of the stuff like 10% down (years away) and mortgage deferrals are carrots given to bears. Bears should really learn from the numerous carrots given to them on the past.

Best place on meth

You seem as nervous as Dave.

Oracle

Of course. I don’t think the correction we want is coming because of this event.

Big Bear

We already have 2) and 3) is highly probable.

Dave

I’ll give you that some jobs are permanently gone, but that’s part of economic progress. I don’t think there will be a second wave (meaning worse than what we had).

JT sucks

part of economic progress?
So is a sharp lesson on over-indebtedness.

bullwhip29

now that everyone is on alert for new COVID-19 developments, a 2nd wave of equal or greater magnitude isn’t needed to cause mass disruption. ie. the moment some kid tests positive in the fall, all the schools will be closed

Big Bear

Amen. The paranoia regarding the virus will be around for the next year or so.

bullwhip29

all three are very much in play. to what extent we don’t know.

you also forgot the FBT, spec tax and the house flipping registry which have already taken a bite out of this market

best case imho is market is reset back to late 2019/early 2020 levels. according to the Dave’s of the world we are days away from beaming back to 2015-16

Best place on meth

A lot of people will be interested in downsizing during this decade long Depression.

https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/2020-05-20-amazon-tiny-houses-for-sale-24366875.html

Best place on meth

How will real estate prices be affected by the doubling of the minimum down payment to 10%?

Will foreign students and immigrants ride to the rescue?

Oracle

No effect.

5% down is used in 10-17% of all first time INSURED home buyers mortgages. This doesn’t include the uninsured mortgages in which people give more than 20% down.

Why?

Because if you give 5% down, you get charged 4% in premiums right away!

This probably means only about 1 in 30 homes that are sold use the 5% down. I’m probably underrating it.

This type of news is for minions to jump up and down. Haven’t you guys learned anything from the last decade?

Best place on meth

“5% down is used in 10-17% of all first time INSURED home buyers mortgages”

Nope, “was used”.

The times, they are a changin’.

Shut It Down Already (original)

And you have data to support this assertion?

Nope, you just made it up on the spot.

You’ve truly learned nothing from your repeated failures.

Oracle

Only 7 percent of BC mortgages deferred.

If only 40% of homes have mortgages, then only 3% of total homes have deferred.

Then if 50% of those are doing it because they can, then only 1.5% of homes are truly deferring.

And if 75% of those people representing the 1.5% get their jobs back, then really this is a non event.

0.4% of homes in trouble? Immigration would take care of that in a month.

Dave

That’s how I see it too.

Shut It Down Already (original)

There are about 6 million mortgages in Canada. CMHC are projecting that 20% defer, which would be about 1.2 million mortgages.

With approximately 500,000 home sales per year nationwide the number of deferrals would equate to more than two entire years of sales.

Still think that’s not many?

As for 50% strategically defaulting? LOL. People are stupid, but not that stupid.

Dave

More like 75% are doing it because they can. The part not calculated is that home owners have equity which gives the banks a lot of time to wait it out. Defaults are going to be shockingly low for those predicting armageddon. We didn’t break 1% in the Great Recession and this time around we have all sorts of programs for helping home owners out. Our banks are well capitalized and the Bank of Canada has their back. My number is 0.6 to 0.8% defaults, a bit higher than Oracle, but far lower than bears.

Big Bear

Where does your 7% comes from?

Oracle

Mortgage websites.

27% Quebec
26% Alberta
21% Ontario
7% BC

You know where the underground economy is the biggest?

The above numbers should tell you that this deferral thing won’t have an effect on BC.

If it starts having an effect on other provinces, then Trudeau will come to the rescue of the nation. And BC will rise even faster.

Big Bear

What websites? Link?

Dave

When the downturn started a good friend of mine made the point that this isn’t a blue collar or ‘career’ town. People here don’t have regular jobs. And the people with regular jobs that are going to lose them aren’t the ones buying real estate from him. That sure showed up in the numbers.

The window for bears is short. You have 10 months. After that, we’re past the bottom. Future bears should be worried about construction pace. We’re going to get a bit of a drop in the next year or two and that means a shortage in 4 or 5 years.

bullwhip29

Only 7% of BC mortgages have deferred SO FAR. BC carrying highest debt loads in the country according to govt stats significantly more than 40% (ie. 2/3 to 3/4) of homes have mortgages. regardless of which figure you use, we are still talking about a high 6-figure number at the very least many folks have multiple mortgages and HELOCs (which are not reported) you are pulling % of people “doing it because they can” out of your a$$ ditto for % people who get jobs back (those that previously lost jobs will no longer qualify for lending anyway) % of homes in trouble is easily 2-4x the figure you quoted. this said, even a lowball estimate would still equate to maybe 5000 owners in trouble, which is certainly enough to have a material impact on the market then you have… Read more »

Oracle

Greater Vancouver is 3%.

Think about that.

Shut It Down Already (original)

2.18% 5yr fixed on ratehub.

Oooof.

Best place on meth

Hardly anyone gets approved for it anymore.

Hahahahaaa!!!!

Cocksucker!

Shut It Down Already (original)

How about you take your sexual frustrations somewhere more appropriate?

Best place on meth

How to be an identity politics, race baiting leftist/Democrat/Liberal scumbag (or how to sida): Exhibit A: someone calls you a cocksucker, do I respond by: A) calling them racist, usually the first card played in most situations – in this case no, totally implausible. Although if the person being called a cocksucker is a “person of colour” then just go for it every time. It doesn’t matter. B) calling them sexist, most often the second card deployed – in this case a slight possibility if enough twisting and contortion can be done….nah, probably not this time. Although if the person being called a cocksucker is a female then just go for it every time. It doesn’t matter. C) calling them homophobic, a much less used card as it’s tricky to play – but in this case we may be on… Read more »

Shut It Down Already (original)

Nobody cares at all what you think, but it’s clear that the last few months have taken their toll on you.

Shut It Down Already (original)

2.14% today.

Werner Stein

“CMHC says almost 20% of mortgagors will have requested mortgage payment deferrals by September.”

https://www.ratespy.com/ominous-data-from-cmhc-051913826

“Trees don’t grow to the sky…The musical chairs game [with housing] is going to come to an end…and young people, who are very highly leveraged [could suffer].”

Yes, it will get better, for the bears.

Oracle

Not even close in BC.

Only Alberta and Quebec are in trouble. With Ontario moderate.

Werner Stein

Another Triple
LOL

I sure hope Alberto was able to win the bidding war, because as we can see there is so much competition for the so few listings.
and we are running out of land and sky.

Slava

LOL Alberto!

Slava
paulb

New
255
Price Change
45
Sold
77
TI:10635

http://www.instagram.com/clivestevepaul

Best place on meth

+113

Dave

9,365 to go. Good day for bears with some new listings coming out after a nice long weekend.

Shut It Down Already (original)

Wow, I just noticed that there’s a really nice selection of west side SFH in the sub-600K price range.

Just kidding, nothing has really changed.

Slava

You seem happy about that. Hmmm?

Shut It Down Already (original)

Believe it or not there are people who would welcome lower prices but also have realistic expectations as well as a reasonable understanding of the underlying dynamics, as opposed to just predicting a crash every fucking spring without even comprehending how stupid they look in doing so.