Friday Free-for-all! June 12th 2020

It’s the end of another work week and everything is fine!

So what are you seeing out there? Looking at any of those new listings available on the market? Checking out stocks? Or just heading to Florida and breathing in deeply the fresh summer air?

Post your news links, thoughts and anecdotes in the comments below and have a fantastic weekend!

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[…] –Five numbers to douse high hopes for the housing market. […]

Werner Stein

Two things come to mind:

‘Chamberlain believed that Hitler was a man of his word.”

And what I wrote yesterday:

“Like the Vichy France Nazi collaborators, the pumpers will collaborate with the foreign criminals if it nets them material gain.”

Who with any shred of morality side with the communists?

Dave

Said the crook who advocates breaking contracts and stealing money from landlords.

Best place on meth

Canada has an unused card up its sleeve against China: our immigration system

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/article-canada-has-an-unused-card-up-its-sleeve-against-china-our-immigration/

“According to the Immigration and Refugee Board of Canada, 25 Hong Kongers have claimed asylum in the first three months of 2020; unofficial sources suggest the number may be as high as 46. While that’s still a relatively small number, it represents a six-year high for Canada in just three months. Regardless of the choices Canada makes, we are likely to see record-high levels of people from Hong Kong fleeing here to seek refuge when international travel fully resumes.”

To prepare for the influx of Hong Kong refugees, we need to expel all PRC nationals who do not hold citizenship here. It’s a matter of national security.

Best place on meth

China charges 2 Canadians with spying in Huawei-linked case

https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/kovrig-spavor-china-espionage-1.5618674

“He said the likelihood of Kovrig and Spavor being convicted is high — the conviction rate for these offences is 99.9 per cent, he said — and they are likely to receive life sentences from the regime-dominated judiciary.”

They’re done for. Time to turn meng-meng over to the US, ban Huawei, and cut ties.

Round up all chinese nationals and deport them.

Dave

What if they were actually spying?

Best place on meth

Absolute nonsense, and you know it.

China ALWAYS lies, they are evil.

Dave

I don’t know that. How could I possibly know? I haven’t seen the evidence.

I agree with your second statement though. China is evil and lies, but it doesn’t mean all the time. And it doesn’t follow their arrests are fake.

At any given time, our intelligence agencies (and China’s too) are tracking people spying in one way or another. There is no question that hundreds, or thousands, of westerners are doing this in China and for sure, China is aware that some of these people are doing it, the same way we are. So if you want to make a political point or political play, do you arrest a couple innocent people, or do you arrest a couple of the more important suspects you’re already following? So my bullshit filter says these guys aren’t 100% clean.

Dave

How many people have heard a point of view like mine? This is an example of the broken media. A little bit of critical thinking and you can get a better idea of what might be happening in the World. If you’re China, what sends a stronger message and has more negotiating clout? Arresting a couple guys who are completely clean, or a couple guys in that grey zone of intelligence collection? Obviously, you send a stronger message by picking off people working with the Canadian government and intelligence agencies. It says, we know what you’re up too, you’re not going to be able to defend them well or worst case, we’ll do a spy trade later. Again, I don’t have evidence one way or the other. But, the critical thinking filter says the scenario I presented is more likely… Read more »

Shut It Down Already (original)

Collective punishment is kind of his thing.

Big Bear

They were missionaries. Hard to spy with that title.

Shut It Down Already (original)

Just a regular missionary who has met Kim Jong Un. Nothing odd about that.

southseacompany

“Five numbers that will douse any high hopes you may have for the housing market”, Globe and Mail

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/investing/personal-finance/article-do-you-have-high-hopes-for-the-housing-market-these-five-stats-will/

“The days after the last recession turned out to be an awesome time to get into the housing market. History will not repeat. Whether the housing market goes up, down or sideways when the pandemic fades, the opportunity for major price appreciation in the years ahead is limited. All the borrowing people did in the past dozen years doesn’t leave room to fuel another housing boom.”

southseacompany

“The days after the last recession turned out to be an awesome time to get into the housing market. History will not repeat. Whether the housing market goes up, down or sideways when the pandemic fades, the opportunity for major price appreciation in the years ahead is limited. All the borrowing people did in the past dozen years doesn’t leave room to fuel another housing boom. If we use the Toronto market as a proxy, home buying sentiment looks strong. On real estate blogs and social media, there are stories this month about bidding wars resuming. But there simply isn’t enough juice in the economy to sustain the kind of housing rally we saw in the years after the 2008-09 recession. Here are five statistics that build this case: $1.77 For every dollar of household after-tax income in Canada, there’s… Read more »

Dave

One number that douses the article… 50,000 new people per year in BC, another North Vancouver.

Bag it and tag it

not this year

Werner Stein

LOL
I thought that the hype machine would be in full gear and rounding up a fair number of “how much a month Jack and Jills” but it looks like if this continues, we will not have to wait till October to start hearing the hissing of the bubble.
It might be earlier than I estimated.

Weak sales given the pumpers pent up demand narrative.

Shut It Down Already (original)

This time last year:

New
151
Price Change
76
Sold
95
TI:15937
11 months ago

Todd

Last year June was a terrible month for sales. but i remember sales started to rebound starting July of last yr… so i guess the question would be whether July 2020 sales > July 2019 sales. > = Bullish; < = Bearish.

paulb

New
241
Price Change
70
Sold
104
TI: 11859

http://www.instagram.com/clivestevepaul

Dave

Tie game today. 100+ sales and 100+ net new. But bears needEd a big week so not a good outcome.

Detached is picking up. Back to multiples. West Van might be revving up. We shall see.

Best place on meth

We’re just over half way through June and inventory has increased by 1057 since the beginning of the month.

Shut It Down Already (original)

Every. Fucking. Year.

backwardsevolution

Wow! Settle down before you blow a gasket.

Shut It Down Already (original)

Don’t make the same mistakes he does.

Best place on meth

“If people cannot control their own emotions, then they have to start controlling other people’s behaviors”
John Cleese.

Werner Stein

“Zombie
For balance, here is one that is not as exciting, only sold for $90,000 above assessed on June 14 in East Van.”

Please do not clutter… I only need to know about the sales that go well above assessed.
I like forwarding this information.

This is more in line of what is needed to be noted.

“Another East Van listing, this one sold for $500,000 above assessed:

4185 BALKAN ST”

https://www.fintrac-canafe.gc.ca/intel/operation/real-eng

Shut It Down Already (original)

You’re not reporting these sales the same way that YVR isn’t currently squatting in an AirBnB.

Zombie

For balance, here is one that is not as exciting, only sold for $90,000 above assessed on June 14 in East Van.

1430 17TH AVE E
Assessment
(2020) $1,598,800 =
$1,527,000 (Land) + $71,800 (Bldg)
PID 008-054-622
Lot Size 0.14 acre
MLS® History
2020-Jun-14 Sold $1,685,000
2020-Jun-07 Listed $1,698,888
R2463789 • RE/MAX Westcoast

Zombie

Another East Van listing, this one sold for $500,000 above assessed:

4185 BALKAN ST
Assessment
(2020) $1,689,000 =
$1,588,000 (Land) + $101,000 (Bldg)
PID 010-214-038
Lot Size 0.11 acre
MLS® History
2020-Jun-09 Sold $2,200,000
R2462383 • Oakwyn Realty Downtown Ltd.
2006-Sep-07 Sold $781,000
V608939 • Macdonald Realty Audry Chua

Zombie

Sold June 16 for $300,000 above assessed.

5162 ELGIN ST
Assessment
(2020) $1,352,900 =
$1,266,000 (Land) + $86,900 (Bldg)
PID 010-908-421
Lot Size 0.11 acre
MLS® History
2020-Jun-16 Sold $1,650,000
R2462775 • RE/MAX Select Realty
2009-May-18 Sold $725,000
V766682 • Amex – Fraseridge Realty
2005-Jun-11 Sold $490,000
V542794 • Royal Pacific Realty (Kingsway) Ltd.

millennial life

You guys are way too much fun. My generation really doesn’t care whether prices go down. We’ve had the times of our lives. We’re driving cars our parents wished they had, vacationing every year to places our parents never even heard about and enjoying life. It’s the heloc lifestyle. My townhouse went up by over $400,000 in less than 7yrs. I owe more on my mortgage now than when I took it out, but I’ve enjoyed every year of my life. We packed 20 yrs of our parents retirement dreams into the last several years. When prices start to seriously drop then I sell or I claim bankruptcy. Big deal. If prices do fall, you won’t see a millennial touching a house. The only reason we’ve been buying is so we can buy a lifestyle that we sure as hell… Read more »

Werner Stein

The hard numbers on consumer debt, and the low savings rate, are verifiable data, not based on individual subjective perception.
Granted it is a macro picture somewhat blurred, but a reliable indicator worth taking into account nonetheless.

Shut It Down Already (original)

I never said otherwise.

Werner Stein

“People claim to be one pay cheque from insolvency but that’s self-reported (therefore not necessarily reliable)”

Somebody thinks they are auditioning for Just for Laughs, suggesting that most people like to brag how broke they are.
Self reporting is an unreliable source for sure, it is intended to be click bait.

However; the hard numbers on consumer debt, and the low savings rate, seem to indicate there is a tsunami headed this way.

Shut It Down Already (original)

I’m not suggesting people brag, I’m suggesting that individuals will not always have a fair perception of their own circumstances especially when required to speculate about a hypothetical scenario.

Dave

There are two tsunami’s headed our way.

The first is the Millennials, the largest generation in history, hitting their prime real estate buying years.

The second is the continued tsunami of immigrants. Yes the wave has temporarily receded but it will soon be another North Vancouver every single year. You can either collect crabs on the beach and ignore the wave, or catch the ride. The choice is yours.

Best place on meth

Millennials don’t even own cars, what makes you think they will buy real estate?

They sure are having a good time right now filling up patios around the city spending their CERB money on drinks.

Dave

It’s simply a numbers game. The social shift you raise has truth to it, but in the long run I think most will aspire for real assets, albeit delayed from historic norms. For sure some, and an increased percentage, will ‘check out’ from the traditional middle class model. But I think the aggregate number wins out.

Shut It Down Already (original)

72% of millennials consider buying a house to be one of their life goals according to a KPMG survey earlier this year.

Big Bear

I’ve never met a rich person so disconnected than you.

Millennials make 20% less than their parents when factor everything equal and housing costs have mushroomed. So they’re all going to but 750k$ glass boxes?

Even immigration consultants say that the numbers will be down for years to come. Why move to a country with 14% unemployment?

Dave

Disconnected? Have you been following me here? I’m the guy who calls things right. This is also true for my life in general. How are Millennials going to buy real estate? Their boomer parents are going to gift them real estate and provide the capitol. This isn’t new and it will be a continuation of a 10 year trend. Everybody who sells condos knows this. I predict our immigration rate will take a short run (1 year) hit but will recover in the medium run (2 to 3 years) and grow above trend in the long run (5 to 10 years). Unemployment won’t be 14% in the medium run. Immigrants will just want to get here because it’s a great place to be. Coronavirus has increased the visibility of health care issue and BC has hit a home run for… Read more »

Shut It Down Already (original)

The parental gift was also covered in the KPMG survey, too. About half of the millenials who bought a home required one.

DaMann

I thought it was the boomers that were the generation dejour to instill panic. Now it’s the millenials?

southseacompany

“Inflation rate fell to -0.4% in May as COVID-19 continued to wallop Canada’s economy”, CBC

https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/inflation-may-canada-1.5615362

“Persistently lower prices are known as deflation, a very serious situation that can prove difficult for an economy to pull itself out of.”

“Because of the dramatic impact of COVID-19, it’s too early to say whether or not deflation is settling in, but at least one market analyst is suggesting it’s a possibility. “

Werner Stein

“Most people would drain their RRSPs and max their credit cards before they even consider listing”
Too funny.
Most mortgage debt slaves, particularly in the bubble markets, don’t have any reserves.
Most are a paycheque away from insolvency. Many are on payment deferral.
Over 2 trillion in consumer debt.

The criminals inflated the market, the locals supported it with debt.
The implications of the debt held by consumers, will be a disaster for the debt slaves for many years to come.

Yes some will hold on, but will be underwater for most of their working lives.

Shut It Down Already (original)

People claim to be one pay cheque from insolvency but that’s self-reported (therefore not necessarily reliable) and likely doesn’t take into account available credit. I imagine many don’t consider their RRSP to be touchable when responding to such a survey, but when facing foreclosure their rules likely change.

paulb

New
214
Price Change
58
Sold
123
TI:11752

http://www.instagram.com/clivestevepaul

Dave

Wow. 12 net new today. Disaster for bears. That’s two bad days in a row right when a strong week of listings is needed.

Sales seem to be trending up now too.

I can’t remember who criticized my citing of increased sales in May relative to April. In response, we all get that sales are still way down year over year. But it’s not cherry picking to point out that relatively speaking the year over year May was better than April. That’s actually the intelligent way to look at data because it’s showing you the current trend and what’s going on. The reality is that April was the Covid bottom and sales started to recover through May. Three points make a trend and if sales are better again (directionally) in June… well, I’ll let you connect the dots.

Best place on meth

If 3 points make a trend, and the sell/list ratio drops sharply again for the third month in a row then I will be pretty damned happy.

So far, so good.

Dave

Could mean something, but I think TOTAL listings are the meat of the matter. The bear case is that our market is a bubble. If it’s a bubble, then there would be a rush to the exits because a bubble requires speculators and speculators are the first to leave. It follows that a significant correction will require listings be above 20,000. We’re just not headed in that direction. Rather, confidence is coming back and we’re past the bottom. To be fair both ways, it’s hard to read into all data because this is a very unique event. But what the month over month data shows is less of a sales drop in May than in April. And that’s a useful metric for predicting when the market gets back to normal. For the sake of argument, if we get April down… Read more »

Big Bear

You wrote the same thing last week. Tired?

Dave

Better to be right twice than wrong forever.

Todd

I think the sales in June are pretty normal considering those who were planning to buy in April/May weren’t able to due to covid-19, so a spike in June sales is expected. If the market prices doesn’t decline throughout the next 6 months then that will definitely be a shocker.

Vector 2000

Predicted
New 183
Sold 49

southseacompany

“Wave of homes could hit market when support programs end: RBC”, Livabl.com

https://www.livabl.com/2020/06/homes-hit-market-support-programs-end.html

‘“We expect the increase in supply to tip the scale in favour of buyers in many markets across Canada, some sooner than others,” Robert Hogue of RBC wrote.

“Vancouver and other BC markets, for example, could see buyers calling the shots as early as this summer. It could take a little longer in Ontario, Quebec and parts of the Atlantic Provinces. Buyers already rule in Alberta and Newfoundland and Labrador.””

Big Bear

RBC must be a doomer organisation.

Dave

Except humans have this ability to think and plan for the future. Many, if not most, of the people that are likely to be in trouble at the end of CERB or other programs would list early in anticipation of that. The idea that all of a sudden, they get hit unexpectedly with a loss of cash flow and then list in a panic is dumb. We would already see the spike in listings because all markets look to the future. Since we’re not seeing that spike… it’s not hard to predict that this is going to be a minor effect.

Shut It Down Already (original)

Most people would drain their RRSPs and max their credit cards before they even consider listing. “If we sell we’ll never be able to buy back in again”, they’ll say.

Dave

A spike in listings from this is not going to happen and the banks are going to play ball with people. They don’t want a flood of listings either because it’s hurts their own loan book.

Keep in mind the media is mostly fake news. It’s not hard to get a story and this narrative is something you can use to lobby government. It’s self servicing.

Shut It Down Already (original)

Where did I say there would be a spike? I implied the exact opposite.

Dave

You didn’t. I was adding to my previous point not countering yours.

Werner Stein

It is quite difficult, if not impossible, to predict what an individual will do when faced with a dilemma.

However, group behaviour is reasonably easy to predict.

Greedy, selfish, irresponsible and unrefined cowards will always look out for themselves and act with muted consideration for their society or their own brothers and sisters.

They, like some animals, will eat their young.
History is littered with confirmation of predicted behaviours of these less than humans, like the pumpers on this board.

Like the Vichy France Nazi collaborators, the pumpers will collaborate with the foreign criminals if it nets them material gain.

Best place on meth

The Turd came out of his basement and saw his shadow, so 8 more weeks of CERB.

The Last Conservative

He’s having a bad day with the loss of the UN security council seat.
All that bribed taxpayers money, oops I mean “foreign aid” down the drain. What a douche.

https://twitter.com/ezralevant/status/1273350567381872640

franko

Insurance cost could decimate condo market?
http//www.pressreader.com/canada/vancouver-sun/2020617/281496458533094

“many of which have reported premium increases of 300% or more this year”

“big jumps in deductibles, accompanying sharp rises in strata fees and – in some cases – an inability to get full or even partial coverage”

JT sucks

http://www.pressreader.com/canada/vancouver-sun/2020617/281496458533094

Expect insurance companies to scramble in a panic to raise premiums even faster before the NDP tries to pass any legislation. (which they won’t be able to)

Sell now or be priced in forever!

Shut It Down Already (original)

Why would they do that? Insurance is about pricing risk. If legislation could decrease risk, for example by making changes to building code or the strata act, then premiums would follow.

Big Bear

But but but pent-up demand!

backwardsevolution

Whenever construction booms, quality control declines. Witness the deficiencies in “finished” buildings. One high rise I know of I guess hired a less than skilled plumber, or the plumber hired less than skilled workers (whatever). Huge flood! Repairs were made, but not long after, another huge flood. OMG – what a disaster! One fellow was telling me about one condo building where “a lot” of the tenants were absent, offshore buyers. They didn’t pay their strata fees, they didn’t report deficiencies (because they weren’t there), and within a few years a lot of damage resulted: leaks, mold, floods. Drove past one “oldish” (but not that old) building that was entirely enveloped and the outside stucco redone, but I was surprised to see that the next year (or maybe it was two years later) it was being re-enveloped again and redone.… Read more »

Dave

Yawn… the media cherry picks. I bet you could find 300% increases for some aspect of insurance for some segment of the condo market in any given year. This year it’s repricing of flood risk for certain condos. An extra $100 for the odd building isn’t going to sink the market.

Shut It Down Already (original)

1.99% 5yr fixed available on ratehub.

Oooof.

Dave

Doesn’t hurt to get pre-approved for that rate NOW!

Best place on meth

June 17, 2020 First signs of housing-market slowdown In May the Teranet–National Bank National Composite House Price IndexTM was up 1.1% from the previous month, a rise equal to the average for May over the last 10 years. Leading that countrywide average were the metropolitan markets of Ottawa-Gatineau (2.2%), Toronto (2.1%), Halifax (1.8%) and Hamilton (1.6%). Advances lagging the countrywide average were reported for Edmonton (0.9%), Montreal (0.7%), Winnipeg (0.7%) and Quebec City (0.6%). The index for Vancouver was flat on the month. Calgary (−0.2%) and Victoria (−0.5%) were down from the previous month. A dive beneath the numbers brings up two signs that the underlying data have begun to reflect the slowing of the housing market in the wake of actions taken to stem the spread of Covid-19. First, the number of repeat sales used to derive indexes[1] was… Read more »

Best place on meth