Whoa, comment overload, time for a new thread!
So… what are you seeing out there?
Post your news links, thoughts and anecdotes in the comments below and have an excellent weekend!
500 Comments
Unfavorable Views Of China Hit Record Highs In The U.S.
https://specials-images.forbesimg.com/imageserve/5f27d28f631a0e72843c63b1/960×0.jpg?fit=scale
And that’s really saying something because Americans are racist ASF to being with.
Some very interesting topics covered by Ozzie including the primary residence cap gains tax exemption, new strata insurance rules and delinquent tenant repayment plans. https://jurock.com/2020/07/20/home-equity-tax-research-ordered-by-cmhc/ The eviction ban will be lifted later this month and regular rent must be paid Sept 1. A month later the repayment plan will kick in and tenants will have 10 months to repay all rent owed for the previous months If a tenant deferred rent payments for the full 5 months from April to August, they will have to add 50% a month to their regular rent for the next 10 months ie $1800 becomes $2700. I can’t see this happening, if they couldn’t afford to pay rent for the past 5 months then they certainly won’t be able to pay 50% more for the next 10. On Oct 1st landlords will see a… Read more »
Over in Tee Ohhhh…. Probably a function of AIrBnB, but a sneak preview of what’s coming here unless landlords show flexibility.
Definitely Airbnb, they were the first to panic and dump supply into the rental market.
The next phase is tenants moving back in with their parents, moving in with friends, giving up having their own place and living with roommates, leaving town or joining the growing crowds that live on the streets rather than paying back thousands in rent arrears.
1.5 million Canadians moving back in with their parents, immediate family due to pandemic
This isn’t good for rentals or sales:
https://www.citynews1130.com/2020/07/26/adults-moving-coronavirus/
Manila real estate is the top performer in the world over the past year, up 22%
Vancouver is ranked #133 best, down 0.7%
Took a walk downtown this evening along Granville from Georgia to the bridge, it felt third world. Between the dozens of boarded up storefronts, plentiful for lease signs and homeless and junkies all over up and down the street it’s obvious we are in the early stages of an enormous depression. Just a disgusting sight. Then drove along Hastings through the DTES and I though I was in LA driving through skid row, there are more junkies than ever and piles of trash along several blocks. This area is still getting worse and is nastier than any third world place I’ve been to. Finally on my way home went by Strathcona Park to see the new tent city that has ruined the neighborhood and put residents on edge. I see a very bleak future for this city and am making… Read more »
“The consequences of which will show up through social unrest and fringe politics from the have-nots once they figure out they got the short end of the stick.”
This is the most powerful force that will squash the pumpers.
Period
“ Expectations for 50, 60, or even 70% price drops anywhere other than the ultra high end are pure insanity.”
Sure, because the ones who participated in the ultra high end lack the sophistication the of the low-end buyers, they were driven by animal spirits.
But the low-end debtors knew how to properly calculate true costs of ownership in one of the very few markets around the world where the cost of ownership has detached from all fundamentals beyond any resemblance of reasonable deviation.
Almost. It’s certainly easier to value high volume commodities such as condos, and the low end is also more of a function of affordability, credit available, and utility value.
Ignore the high end, don’t try and extrapolate from it.
“Printing Prosperity”, Steve Saretskyhttps://stevesaretsky.com/printing-prosperity/ “The printing presses are running in overdrive, monetizing fiscal debt at an unprecedented pace. The Bank of Canada’s balance sheet has grown by more than 400% since the pandemic, while Canada’s M2 money supply has expanded by more than 10% this year.” “Supporting asset prices creates a growing divide between the haves and the have nots. Those who don’t hold assets, such as real estate, are not benefitting from the central bank put. The national wealth breakdown reveals the country’s dependence on real estate assets. By Q3 2018, real estate wealth of $8.75 trillion took up 76 per cent of the total $11.42 trillion national wealth. Thus, ultimately illuminating the fact that real estate has become a one way trade that is deemed, at least by policy makers, as too big to fail. The consequences of which will… Read more »
“Australia Home Prices Fall, With Risks ‘Skewed to Downside’”, BNN Bloomberg
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/australia-home-prices-fall-with-risks-skewed-to-downside-1.1474591
“Australian house prices fell for a third month in July and risks are “skewed to the downside” with government wage support and mortgage holidays set to taper off in coming months.”
Interest rates may be in the basement, but will people qualify?
Anyone know if banks will want all payments that are in arrears from the COVID deferral when before folks go to renew their mortgages?
TD website says no, but the monthly payment will be increased at the start of the next term in order to ensure that the entire mortgage is repaid on the original date. No idea about other lenders.
RBC say the same thing.
“Even if you’re “right” eventually prices will still be far higher than when you first started bleating.”
Here we go again, dredging up the past.
Many times, over I have characterized this market as a lotto win for those who bought at the early stage of the bubble.
I do not understand your incessant need to have that acknowledged with every post.
But do not confuse a lucky lotto win with strategy.
There is no way you could truthfully suggest you forecast 911, CFC, and the unprecedented government intervention that followed.
No, it was a lucky- one- time- in- a- generation fluke.
You are holding on to a winning ticket, but as I said before:
It has an unknown expiry date, yes unknown, but an expiry date nonetheless.
As I’ve said before, it’s not luck to be able to understand that mortgage principal repayments do not have a negative impact on net worth. There are many properties today which are fairly priced or close to fairly priced. You try to comfort yourself by suggesting that those who can identify them are merely lucky.
Expectations for 50, 60, or even 70% price drops anywhere other than the ultra high end are pure insanity. It’s a shame so many here were misled by patriotz’s arbitrary price:rent ratios which were likely constructed when interest rates were in the teens.
“[the] “inevitable” crash. They’ve all been wrong so far.”
As I told grandpa pumper before: you have been right for the wrong reasons.
Luck is not a reliable predictor; you will run out of it at some point.
Even if you’re “right” eventually prices will still be far higher than when you first started bleating.
And knowing that mortgage principal repayments aren’t an expense is not luck.
“1.68% 5 year fixed.
Huge price increases happening.”
Hope rates go down even more, soaking up any residual demand.
It increases the speed on the fast lane to the cliff.
LOL. You sound like you just stepped out of a time machine from 2013.
2013 was Obama, recovery from the GFC, increasing globalism, tighter ties (and looser borders) with china, and a bright economic future.
2020 is the Cold War, race riots, great depression, and pandemic all happening at once. Under Trump.
Bye bye China relations, bye bye travel, bye bye economy, bye bye manageable income taxes and big fat tax shelters, bye bye everything as you knew it.
How is it that you are drawing a comparison?
There have been literally hundreds of examples of bears here over the years cheering bullish events on the basis that they somehow pull demand from the future and therefore hasten the “inevitable” crash. They’ve all been wrong so far.
And last time I checked Trump isn’t the president of Canada.
LOL Canadian Exceptionalism?
Canada is undergoing the worst depression in its’ short 150 year history.
So I hope that that’s not your thesis. I *hope* you think that other countries’ economies will carry us through this.
Because the idea of a “decoupled” Canada is utterly terrifying.
My only thesis is that morons here have been saying the exact same things for years, yet still every once in a while a new poster shows up and believes themselves to be the first.
Look at the Frank Slide.
The local First Nations said it was a bad idea to put a mine there and they were completely wrong every single day until the last day.
The mine owners profited every single day right up until they didn’t.
1.68% 5 year fixed.
Huge price increases happening.
Do the unemployed qualify?
No. But, based on the number of sales happening, people are qualifying. It’s happening right across the country. Calgary in a multiple bid situation.
New angle in the Huawei / Meng dispute… https://www.propublica.org/article/the-disinfomercial-how-larry-king-got-duped-into-starring-in-chinese-propaganda
“The Disinfomercial: How Larry King Got Duped Into Starring in Chinese Propaganda”
The embedded video is worth watching.
Lock her up!!!
“Confrontation in Strathcona involving councillor Pete Fry points to rising tensions:”
Strathcona is steeped in a rich diverse history.
It was a societal “Galápagos”.
Pimps, drug users, prostitutes, criminals, gangs, long shoremen, assembly line workers, all lived in harmony.
Then the low lives from the westside began to buy crack houses for 1.5 million and trouble soon began.
Anytime you introduce foreign parasite species into a balanced biome, disruption takes place.
Will the parasites destroy the host, or will the parasites end up cannibalizing themselves?
Looks like the daily sales numbers were underreported here by 30+ per day.
“Huge sales numbers for July. Wait until they reopen the border. “
Confrontation in Strathcona involving councillor Pete Fry points to rising tensions:
https://www.citynews1130.com/2020/07/31/confrontation-in-strathcona-involving-councillor-pete-fry-points-to-rising-tensions/
it’s no wonder that the fight to the suburbs will continue … who would want to raise a family or even live around that environment?
Bingo! Young families have no choice but to leave.
“Another solid month. Once again we got year over year gains in a Covid world. Amazing anybody can be bearish based purely on that fact.”
No, it is consistent with market participant behaviours in bubble markets.
I have on a number of occasions posted that I thought the numbers were somewhat surprising as I assumed the cliff was down the road in the fall.
But that been said, why did pumper man, who supposedly is also a realtor, and had the stats from the board as well, not correct Paul’s posts?
hmmmm….
N 214
PC 50
S 111
TI 12965
For the month sales will be close to 3177. Last July was 2557 and 2018 was 2070.
So we are missing around 600 sales from your daily data, it looks like late reporting from the board is messing with the numbers.
Oh no! Your spreadsheet!
Yeah I suppose some days the reporting drags on well past the dinner hour. Yesterday ended up at 157 sales. We were at about 100 or so at 7:30pm. Still so many came through. Tonight the numbers don’t seem to still be moving.
Got it.
Thanks for all you do.
No worries. It’s not much. But been in the habit for over 10 years now 🙂
Anyone else loving how paul b converses with BPOM? Lol the race baiting resident virus continually attacks paul and hopes his business suffers for posting on this “racist blog” must be heartbroken .
Ya gotta love it!
I agree, it’s awesome! Because he just gave up his plausible deniability. Now we know that he reads the content here and yet continues to support those who spew hate speech.
You spew the most hate speech of all at nearly everyone in all directions.
Your sick insinuations that Paul supports anything said here is a disgusting and vile leftist smear tactic to try and slander someone just for being in the same room as someone else.
Your only skills are bullying, harassment and intimidation and there is no hope for you to become a decent human being ever, you’re incorrigible.
LOL. Nice try, racist loser.
Paul probably doesn’t read the content here, or the usernames.
He is the only neutral poster.
The day I have a realtor commission to pay, it will go to Paul.
That’s your choice. My choice is to use a realtor who speaks out against the types of racism exhibited by the vast majority of posters and shuns those who preach it.
Thanks Paul. You’re a great dude.
Another solid month. Once again we got year over year gains in a Covid world. Amazing anybody can be bearish based purely on that fact.
Definately a win for the bulls this month
Seems odd that zealty data is more up to date than the mls… doesn’t zealty get their data from MLS?
Yes but the MLS has been late reporting in recent days and those updated numbers you see on zealty are often finalized long after Paul posts.
*sigh*
BB gone again.
Until I have seen that this is no longer a home for crazy manifestos and apparent racism, so long and thanks for all the fish.
Catch you all on the flipside.
“The World is perfect the way it is at all times. Come to peace with that and you might come to peace with yourself.”
Whoa, that is so Spinozistic,you will likely cause an identity crisis among your automaton fellow bulls.
Old house in need of renovation sells for $325,000 over assessed and $225,000 over asking in East Vancouver after 7 days on the market.
803 E 24TH AVENUE
Vancouver – Fraser VE V5V 2A7
(Vancouver East) Reported SOLD
Jul 29, 2020
$1,575,000
MLS® R2477891
They’re Not Making Any More Beanie Babies ™ As always, price is what you pay and value is what you get. https://wealthygorilla.com/most-expensive-beanie-babies/ Here’s a quick recap of the 20 most expensive beanie babies in the world: Large Wallace and his Squad – $600,000 Princess the Bear – $500,000 15-inch Peace bear and 9-inch Peace, Ringo and Bones – $159,000 Bubbles – $129,000 Piccadilly Attic – $125,000 Lefty the Donkey and Righty the Elephant – $50,000 Valentino the bear – $42,300 Hippity, Hoppity and Floppity the Bunnies – $30,000 Brownie the Bear – $20,000 Iggy the Iguana – $15,000 Patti the Platypus – $10,000 Mcdonald’s International Bears – $10,000 Halo the Bear – $7,500 Peanut the Elephant – $7,000 Gobbles the Turkey – $6,750 Snort the Red Bull – $6,500 Peace the Bear – $5,000 Nana the Monkey – $4,000 Employee… Read more »
https://beaniepedia.com/blog/tag/how-to-sell-beanie-babies/ What are my Beanie Babies worth? Monday, June 1st, 2020 I get a lot of questions asking what Beanie Babies are worth. The answer to this is…it depends. There are some Beanie Babies that are worth a lot (e.g. Chef Robuchon), but most are probably only worth a few dollars. There are some very misleading articles out there on the internet (most notably the article in the Cosmopolitan) that claim Rainbow is worth about $50,000 and a Valentino with a tag error is worth $100,000! That simply isn’t true. These articles are pure click-bait and completely misleading (and downright frustrating for collectors). Just to clarify, Rainbow is one of the most common Beanie Babies available, and Valentino, even with a tag error, was so mass-produced that he is worth no more than a Valentino Beanie Baby with the tag… Read more »
Or as Dave would say, A Wizard Did It it is only priced that way because Bitcoin / Suitcases Full Of Cash ™ / Sexual Favours / all of the above changed hands in dark back rooms.
Dave says that the posted transaction value is not a reliable indicator of the trade value of the property. Best to ignore any such static in your analysis.
It’s a minimum value.
Where there is no smoke, there is no fire.
MVCA:
Do not listen to Dave, he is as ill as you are; the difference between you and him, is the circumstances you were brought up in, which is entirely by chance.
It appears you do not have an intellectual impairment, therefore with some minor chemical adjustments, you could get on track and make some valuable contribution to society.
However, it will not happen by following some ridiculous hippie blather, tweaked by long drawn out redundant syllogisms found in sales training $1.00 paperback manuals.
Between imagining, and achieving there is a lot of real estate (pun intended).
Get your head out of your anus.
Go see a doctor, write a book, start a new political party.
Do something.
Pls don’t feed the troll.
See what a torrent of blogarrhea was unleashed?
Whatever differences we may have about RE on this blog, let’s all agree to ignore the troll.
Don’t comment, don’t reply, don’t get angry, don’t feel sorry and try to help. It is always a waste of time.
From the cherry-picking department, let’s take a moment to look at this guy who apparently did REALLY REALLY well, and unexpectedly sold for 25% above assessed. Except if you own a calculator you will find out that he got <6% nominal appreciation BEFORE EXPENSES. Meaning closer to 4% all things considered. After his 25%-over-assessment windfall. And whether you call his gains 6% or 4%, there is no question that it is a fucking garbage return given the incredible risk, lack of diversification, and transaction costs. If you got that in your RSP at this risk level, you would be an idiot. Had he sold at assessed, he would have done worse than just buying a zero-risk GIC from his bank’s website. @mortimer_1 Today’s happy seller… a former NHLer who played 1,000 games… 4535 W 6TH AVENUE, Vancouver Bought 2008 $4,300,000 + renos… Read more »
Meanwhile, this guy is not so much in the “positive returns” department:
mortimer_1
Lots of activity out there, but still some who are losing money… $700,000+ loss (+ expenses)
2755 W 38TH AVENUE, Vancouver
Bought 2017 $3,168,000
Just sold for $2,450,000
2019 Assessed: $2,487,000
2018 Assessed: $2,898,000
2017 Assessed: $3,318,000
You’re assigning zero value to 12 years of living there?
Seems like grasping at straws if you have to include intangible benefits of an investment to demonstrate that it was worthwhile.
“I lost all my money on Bre-X, but it was a very exciting ride which gave me a lot of bragging rights for a few weeks — so there’s that”
Also, people with 8 million dollar houses who play 1000 NHL games do not own only one house in which they live full-time??
So if you want to talk about the possible rent savings, you have to talk about the probably tax implication on his 4 million dollar appreciation.